Raila 56% WIN:2002 VS 2022 Presidential Election.

[Githunguri]

• Tweet

2002:

Divided Kikuyu.
United Kalenjin.
United Luhya,Luo,Kamba,Coast.
Ruto,Uhuru,Mudavadi.

2022:

Divided Kikuyu.
United Kalenjin.
Uniter Luo,Luhya,Kamba,Coast.

The only difference is that this time round we have to reduce Raila vote by 5% compared to Kibaki win of 61% in 2002.

Its Raila 54-56%.

Anything else ni hekaya ya abunwasi.

[Githunguri]

Remember Mudavadi is an empty shell,

In 2002 he delivered i think 3% vote to Uhuru,
In 2013,He got 4% presidential vote,
In 2022,He will deliver 400k Maragoli vote to Ruto which is a mere 3-4% national vote so thats why ive reduced Raila vote to 56%.

The only thingy Mudavadi delivers to Kenya kwanza is himself.I doubt he will even get an MCA.

[RV Pundit]

MaDVD is not even Ruto biggest play - It's actually Weta. Bukusu are 40 % of Luhyas. They gave Kibaki a lot of votes in 2007. MaDVD bring 15 percent of Luhyas- Maragolis and maybe another 15% of related tribes in Kakamega. Total 70 percent of Luhyas likely to vote Ruto.

Biggest play is Bungoma, Tranzoia and diaspora Bukusu. Followed by Kakamega+Vihiga.

Raila reduces by 4% of 2017 - hiyo ako 40% - for Loosing MaDVD
Then Bukusu drop him another 5% - hapo machozi tu - 35%

Now he has to get half of GEMA - almost 15% to make for that loss and WIN.

MACHOZI TU


Luhya - Ruto has big play there - Raila has Oparanya and Eunice Namwala - Atwoli

Ruto has Senate Speaker Lusaka, Weta, MaDVD, Khawale, Malala, nearly all ford-k crew in Tranzoia (governor, wamalwa, makhokha), 6 out 8 mps in Bungoma, Wanga crew led by Washiali.

Wake me up when Raila is at 50 percent of GEMA.

HAPO NDIO itakuwa TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Otherwise Kucheza 50-50 with Ruto in baluhya and even Ukambani look really shaky - machozi tu.
Matusa, coast & rest look 50-50 - machozi tu.

GEMA will decide this election - because Raila and Ruto will split Non-GEMA vote almost equally.

Both arrive at 35-35 - before GEMA bring their 30 percent.

Hapo - they will give Ruto 20 - and Raila 10.

Ruto goes to 55 - Jakom 45.

That is ROUGH estimate.

[Pajero]

The best Ruto can make in luhya land is 35%

[RV Pundit]

Okay

The best Ruto can make in luhya land is 35%

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

MaDVD is not even Ruto biggest play - It's actually Weta. Bukusu are 40 % of Luhyas. They gave Kibaki a lot of votes in 2007. MaDVD bring 15 percent of Luhyas- Maragolis and maybe another 15% of related tribes in Kakamega. Total 70 percent of Luhyas likely to vote Ruto.

Biggest play is Bungoma, Tranzoia and diaspora Bukusu. Followed by Kakamega+Vihiga.

Raila reduces by 4% of 2017 - hiyo ako 40% - for Loosing MaDVD
Then Bukusu drop him another 5% - hapo machozi tu - 35%

Now he has to get half of GEMA - almost 15% to make for that loss and WIN.

MACHOZI TU


Luhya - Ruto has big play there - Raila has Oparanya and Eunice Namwala - Atwoli

Ruto has Senate Speaker Lusaka, Weta, MaDVD, Khawale, Malala, nearly all ford-k crew in Tranzoia (governor, wamalwa, makhokha), 6 out 8 mps in Bungoma, Wanga crew led by Washiali.

Wake me up when Raila is at 50 percent of GEMA.

HAPO NDIO itakuwa TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Otherwise Kucheza 50-50 with Ruto in baluhya and even Ukambani look really shaky - machozi tu.
Matusa, coast & rest look 50-50 - machozi tu.

GEMA will decide this election - because Raila and Ruto will split Non-GEMA vote almost equally.

Both arrive at 35-35 - before GEMA bring their 30 percent.

Hapo - they will give Ruto 20 - and Raila 10.

Ruto goes to 55 - Jakom 45.

That is ROUGH estimate.

Your game with number will kill these folks shooting from the hip! They clearly know these truths that: Kikuyus and larger Gema are not clearly divided, that Wetangula is Bukusu Kingpin, Kambas will not deliver the usual 96%,  Ruto is way stronger in Kamatusa, Raila have lost 4 presidential elections, and coast is a battleground. To make things worse for them,  they also know that Ruto is the finest presidential candidate intellectually, financially, and strategically. He has energy and a well-oiled campaign machine to boot. All these factors favor and reading luo comments on Facebook tells all you need. They are screaming 🙀 that baba is toast and doing everything wrong. They see Uhuru as a burden, but they also need Kikuyu votes. Tough place to be, right! I'm still Ruto 58% because I know how the Ruto network in western is rolling. Kabras Elders, Wanga Elders, Isukha, and other elders of other sub-tribes are on Ruto dial. They have forwarded the names of their preferred people to make sure a win-win happens in Kakamega, Busia, and Vihiga. Once Kenya Kwanza settle, ODM will fizzle out! In ODM tawe strategy, they ask folks if can ANC of Ford Kenya be allowed to run in Nyanza? ANC and Ford Kenya ni NGOME ya western just as Wiper and ODM are Nysnza and Ukambani respectively!

[Githunguri]

MaDVD is not even Ruto biggest play - It's actually Weta. Bukusu are 40 % of Luhyas. They gave Kibaki a lot of votes in 2007. MaDVD bring 15 percent of Luhyas- Maragolis and maybe another 15% of related tribes in Kakamega. Total 70 percent of Luhyas likely to vote Ruto.

Biggest play is Bungoma, Tranzoia and diaspora Bukusu. Followed by Kakamega+Vihiga.

Raila reduces by 4% of 2017 - hiyo ako 40% - for Loosing MaDVD
Then Bukusu drop him another 5% - hapo machozi tu - 35%

Now he has to get half of GEMA - almost 15% to make for that loss and WIN.

MACHOZI TU


Luhya - Ruto has big play there - Raila has Oparanya and Eunice Namwala - Atwoli

Ruto has Senate Speaker Lusaka, Weta, MaDVD, Khawale, Malala, nearly all ford-k crew in Tranzoia (governor, wamalwa, makhokha), 6 out 8 mps in Bungoma, Wanga crew led by Washiali.

Wake me up when Raila is at 50 percent of GEMA.

HAPO NDIO itakuwa TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Otherwise Kucheza 50-50 with Ruto in baluhya and even Ukambani look really shaky - machozi tu.
Matusa, coast & rest look 50-50 - machozi tu.

GEMA will decide this election - because Raila and Ruto will split Non-GEMA vote almost equally.

Both arrive at 35-35 - before GEMA bring their 30 percent.

Hapo - they will give Ruto 20 - and Raila 10.

Ruto goes to 55 - Jakom 45.

That is ROUGH estimate.

Nice try,

Majority Luhya tribes are bukusu (wetangula) maragoli (madvd) and the rest.

In 2007,When Majority Bukusu leaders that is Wetangula Musikari Kombo,Wamalwa were supporting Kibaki Raila got 70% Luhya vote while Kibaki got 30%.

In 2002,How many Maragoli votes did Madvd deliver to Uhuru?NOTHING...What about 2013?He got I think 400k votes nationally and this figure will drop this time round because he is not a presidential candidate.

It's there IDIOTIC to assume that just because Wetangula and Madvd are on Ruto side,the luhya are on ruto side..that is a lie


Raila will get 80% Luhya vote.

That's a guarantee.

[RV Pundit]

Non-GEMA will be split almost equally. Raila has slightly edge but Kalenjin are more than Luo-Abasuba. They are million more - so any edge Raila has (in Kamba, Gusii & Mijikenda) - Kalenjin will kamatia yeye chini - by out-voting Luo bock. Kalenjin is huge political force with influence in 11 counties, with 50 plus Mp - only second to Kikuyus. Hapana Mchezo. They know how to vote....

GEMA NDIO ITADECIDE - if Ruto wins by 51 percent - he is PORK. Raila need 50 percent of GEMA. Anything else is a JOKE.

The largest native ethnic groups were the
Kikuyu (8,148,668),
Luhya (6,823,842),
Kalenjin (6,358,113),
Luo (5,066,966),
Kamba (4,663,910),
Somalis (2,780,502),
Kisii (2,703,235),
Mijikenda (2,488,691),
Meru (1,975,869),
Maasai (1,189,522),
and Turkana (1,016,174)

Your game with number will kill these folks shooting from the hip! They clearly know these truths that: Kikuyus and larger Gema are not clearly divided, that Wetangula is Bukusu Kingpin, Kambas will not deliver the usual 96%,  Ruto is way stronger in Kamatusa, Raila have lost 4 presidential elections, and coast is a battleground. To make things worse for them,  they also know that Ruto is the finest presidential candidate intellectually, financially, and strategically. He has energy and a well-oiled campaign machine to boot. All these factors favor and reading luo comments on Facebook tells all you need. They are screaming 🙀 that baba is toast and doing everything wrong. They see Uhuru as a burden, but they also need Kikuyu votes. Tough place to be, right! I'm still Ruto 58% because I know how the Ruto network in western is rolling. Kabras Elders, Wanga Elders, Isukha, and other elders of other sub-tribes are on Ruto dial. They have forwarded the names of their preferred people to make sure a win-win happens in Kakamega, Busia, and Vihiga. Once Kenya Kwanza settle, ODM will fizzle out! In ODM tawe strategy, they ask folks if can ANC of Ford Kenya be allowed to run in Nyanza? ANC and Ford Kenya ni NGOME ya western just as Wiper and ODM are Nysnza and Ukambani respectively!

[RV Pundit]

I see soon - when you realize Ruto still win with 20 percent of Luhya - you will now claim Ruto has 1 percent of Luhyas.
MaDVD+Weta opinion polls are showing has made contest in Luhya 50:50
Ruto started with o percent of Luhyas in 2013.
Luhyas were angry because Jubilee gave maDVD ticket and then dropped him like it's hot
Jubilee became TAWE! - they got 4 percent - which was mostly Kalenjin of Bungoma and Kikuyus there.
He has visited Luhyas almost every week
Build tarmac, open electricity, contributed to schools, harambees....name it...Ruto is at home in Luhya.
That paid off - with Luhyas voting Jubilee by 30 percent in 2017..from almost zero percent.

Post 2017
Ruto has increased his visits to western - that already had him about 40 percent
Then he has signed combo of maDVD+Weta - really biggest Luhya prospect.
Now opinion polls are showing Bungoma+Tranzoia is home - Ruto is nearing 70 percent there.
Kakakmega is nearly 50-50.
Raila has edge in Busia - and Vihiga will be 50-50.
In Short worse Ruto can do is 50 percent of Baluhyas.
He can even go as high as 70 percent.

Dont think Luhyas are Luos who will vote Raila willy nilly.
They have their own interest.
And for them - Sugoi for some Luhyas is nearer - and for some Bondo is nearer
They are going to split - those near Sugoi like Bukusu will go there.
Those near Bondo - like Busia - will go there.

Nice try,

Majority Luhya tribes are bukusu (wetangula) maragoli (madvd) and the rest.

In 2007,When Majority Bukusu leaders that is Wetangula Musikari Kombo,Wamalwa were supporting Kibaki Raila got 70% Luhya vote while Kibaki got 30%.

In 2002,How many Maragoli votes did Madvd deliver to Uhuru?NOTHING...What about 2013?He got I think 400k votes nationally and this figure will drop this time round because he is not a presidential candidate.

It's there IDIOTIC to assume that just because Wetangula and Madvd are on Ruto side,the luhya are on ruto side..that is a lie


Raila will get 80% Luhya vote.

That's a guarantee.