Charles Horsnby - predict narrow win of 51 versus 49

[RV Pundit]

Insightful. That could explain it.

The difference between them and Ruto is they made deals with Kikuyu elites who pay lip service to Kihooto. Ruto ensured the ordinary proletariat Kikuyu was part of the deal, which Uhuru inadvertently consummated in public by proclaiming yake kumi ya Ruto kumi. Like the rest, Ruto has been betrayed by the elites, but he appealed to the people, who agreed with him.
There was this article that said the difference between Ruto and Raila was who they appealed to after betrayal.

https://arkanuddin.medium.com/raila-vs-raila-5974b2630266

[sema]

Kikuyu's have never had issues betraying anyone before. They do it all the time (maybe they are just fearful of war if they betray Kalenjins again) I doubt it's some cultural premonition for Kikuyu's.  It's the economy for them and on that you raise a different point from pundit & RV heavy hitter who have been arguing here that the economy tanked BECAUSE Ruto (the genius) was cut out of Jubilee's first term and his "brain" power was then removed and Uhuru, left to his own devices, screwed things up.

He began messing the economy in his first term, though it was less noticeable since we still had the momentum from Kibaki's time. Ndii was all over shouting himself hoarse about it but was ignored.

So, even for Ndii (who is now also blaming Uhuru) what is it? Is it Ruto Leaving or not? you are saying no. That the descent began in the first term and if so, Ruto should also receive some blame for the economic problems.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru on his own cannot run anything - not with his drug problem - that is common knowledge. Jubilee 1.0 was big success. Jubilee 2.0 was going to built on it - if you read Big 4 agenda - it's was a brilliant plan. Ruto intends to implement the Big 4 - basically provide mass housing which create mass jobs while fixing housing crisis - fix healthcare - fix manufacturing and food insecurity. Uhuru 2.0 instead decide to concentrate on BBI.

Ruto cannot be responsible for this mess - it's Raila and Uhuru mess. If Uhuru had implemented big 4 - and economy still had issues - then yes we would be talking something else.

But he never tried - housing levy which was critical was defeated in court - and he did nothing to fix the issues. Mlevi thought Matiangi would replace Ruto - but clearly Matiangi doesnt understand jack about "global" issues - and was ill prepared to take over - end results - total absolute failure.

Kikuyu's have never had issues betraying anyone before. They do it all the time (maybe they are just fearful of war if they betray Kalenjins again) I doubt it's some cultural premonition for Kikuyu's.  It's the economy for them and on that you raise a different point from pundit & RV heavy hitter who have been arguing here that the economy tanked BECAUSE Ruto (the genius) was cut out of Jubilee's first term and his "brain" power was then removed and Uhuru, left to his own devices, screwed things up.

He began messing the economy in his first term, though it was less noticeable since we still had the momentum from Kibaki's time. Ndii was all over shouting himself hoarse about it but was ignored.

So, even for Ndii (who is now also blaming Uhuru) what is it? Is it Ruto Leaving or not? you are saying no. That the descent began in the first term and if so, Ruto should also receive some blame for the economic problems.

[KenyanPlato]

Kikuyu's have never had issues betraying anyone before. They do it all the time (maybe they are just fearful of war if they betray Kalenjins again) I doubt it's some cultural premonition for Kikuyu's.  It's the economy for them and on that you raise a different point from pundit & RV heavy hitter who have been arguing here that the economy tanked BECAUSE Ruto (the genius) was cut out of Jubilee's first term and his "brain" power was then removed and Uhuru, left to his own devices, screwed things up.

He began messing the economy in his first term, though it was less noticeable since we still had the momentum from Kibaki's time. Ndii was all over shouting himself hoarse about it but was ignored.

So, even for Ndii (who is now also blaming Uhuru) what is it? Is it Ruto Leaving or not? you are saying no. That the descent began in the first term and if so, Ruto should also receive some blame for the economic problems.

There many reasons that kikuyus arexsupportint ruto. The biggest factor is disdain they have for raila. May be because he is luo or due to his quarrelsome politics especially against the last 2 kikuyu regimes. Secondly there those kikuyu religious nuts who believe raila is an aethist the label Mganga is akin to mukosa ndini. For them he is not religious and they see ruto as a staunch Christian. Third are ethnic chauvinists who bought the idea that kikuyu and kalenjins have the numbers to dominate other tribes. They distrust luos and so they will go with ruto in hope he can keep their plan of kalenjin kikuyu hegemony going..that is it. Economy is a 4th concern.

About uhuru he is a retiring politician who kikuyu know he can't deliver anything useful after he leaves power. Simple S that. If uhuru was running again he would be popular than ruto among kikuyus

[RV Pundit]

I think Uhuru team are running out of aces to turn the tide - and there is resignation to the reality - that GEMA are very hostile to Raila PORK.

He has played all the Sagana cards - has played Statehouse elders - before that there was statehouse youths - maybe next statehouse gema women?

Maybe he will eventually get down to campaign trail - and face the rejection - do retail politics. That will be something.

There are still a few aces to be played in this campaign
1) Uhuru still has the prov admin/NIS card to play - he can force chiefs to campaign for his project.
2) BBI tomorrow - he can bribe them
3) 10th June Coalition deadline - he need to be careful with Kalonzo and Kiraitus - those are likely to bolt out of Azimio - for traction issues. Parties can still withdraw their signatures.
4) 26th April - UDA nomination fallout - chance to re-enter GEMA politics and claim Ruto is a dictator who rigged out popular candidate for tugeges:)
5) 10th June - that will be the deadline for presidential running mate - he can get GEMA DPORK and run with it.

Those are the 5 aces he still has....

[Pajero]

Boss,train has left,focus on your UDA,mambo ya Azimio wachana nayo,we do our things the way we know.Our plans are going as planned,battle lines already drawn,30% is the gema magic number,eye in the prize.You can't beat us in nrb, coast, western,nyanza,NE, and Eastern.In RV we are doing over 30%.Do your maths.

[RV Pundit]

RV alone is equal to Western (4)+NEP(3)+Coast(6)+Nairobi. Those are four provinces.  14 counties and 1/4 of all the votes - which is half of the 50 percent pass mark.

RV which has never been this united - imagine all tribes - turkana to maasai to kikuyu to luhyas - to even gusii - are in one team - hapo Ruto start strong at 25 percent - half way distance

By time Ruto enters Central and Nairobi - he is already at 45 percent - and tops up with Eastern to get 50 percent.

Western will give him PLUS ONE.

MOAS I have Raila at 30 percent plus of GEMA- and he cannot make it.
He needs 49 percent of GEMA.

Boss,train has left,focus on your UDA,mambo ya Azimio wachana nayo,we do our things the way we know.Our plans are going as planned,battle lines already drawn,30% is the gema magic number,eye in the prize.You can't beat us in nrb, coast, western,nyanza,NE, and Eastern.In RV we are doing over 30%.Do your maths.

[Nefertiti]

  even his fellow pundit Prof Hornsby puts the race at 49-51 "too close to call" - but RV is here giving advice to Azimio. Talk of hubris.

Boss,train has left,focus on your UDA,mambo ya Azimio wachana nayo,we do our things the way we know.Our plans are going as planned,battle lines already drawn,30% is the gema magic number,eye in the prize.You can't beat us in nrb, coast, western,nyanza,NE, and Eastern.In RV we are doing over 30%.Do your maths.

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru job is well done: Azimio juggernaut. Ruto & KK are hoping&praying for campaign trail... not taking the bait so far. All you will get is fitina like impeachment. Uhuru will land strategically when there is a mess like UDA primaries. Uhuru has been very effective contra to your narrative.

I think Uhuru team are running out of aces to turn the tide - and there is resignation to the reality - that GEMA are very hostile to Raila PORK.

He has played all the Sagana cards - has played Statehouse elders - before that there was statehouse youths - maybe next statehouse gema women?

Maybe he will eventually get down to campaign trail - and face the rejection - do retail politics. That will be something.

There are still a few aces to be played in this campaign
1) Uhuru still has the prov admin/NIS card to play - he can force chiefs to campaign for his project.
2) BBI tomorrow - he can bribe them
3) 10th June Coalition deadline - he need to be careful with Kalonzo and Kiraitus - those are likely to bolt out of Azimio - for traction issues. Parties can still withdraw their signatures.
4) 26th April - UDA nomination fallout - chance to re-enter GEMA politics and claim Ruto is a dictator who rigged out popular candidate for tugeges:)
5) 10th June - that will be the deadline for presidential running mate - he can get GEMA DPORK and run with it.

Those are the 5 aces he still has....

[GeeMail]

Pundit start 10 new threads by midnite from bartalk. Self confessed.

[KenyanPlato]

Pundit start 10 new threads by midnite from bartalk. Self confessed.

He is anxious like a dictator that is trying to quell an uprising but everyday the masses noise move closer to the seat of power. Reminds me of Ceausescu as the boos became louder he became confused. His wife had to take his nuts and tell him to stand firm. Within hours they were excuted in a village yard abandoned even by their own pilot. Pundit can hear the numbers slip like someone juggling a liver he can't keep it stable. Ever tried to drink water out of an arrow root leaf it requires a miracle to stabilize the water