They are not bad...but you've got to be trained to be able to spot the manipulated one.
If you have 3 opinion poll saying it's 50-50
Then one opinion pollster wakes up and suddenly say it 80-20 - without any explanation then you know it's manipulated
Polls change - but you need political scientist to explain that change - if indeed there is a change.
For example - places we expect to see changes is Western, Ukambani and Mt Kenya - the rest have largely settled.
Those places - Luhyas, Kambas and GEMA - are engaged in active conversation on their political future - the Kalenjin and Luos are settled - and smaller tribes generally play 50:50 with a edge here and there .
I dont expect a lot of changes in the poll now - except the undecided - mostly 20 percent in some areas.
In short unless you anticipate some big major move in Northern Kenya - this is going to be as always
50:50 game.
It's been that way since 2002....as those small tribes just spread their risks.
There are few clan dynamism that you need to understand in each county.
Isiolo - has boranas, somalis, turkanas and merus
Marsabit - is big fight btw Borana and Garre - and rendiles.
Mandera - specific clans
Wajir - specific clan
Garissa - specific clan.
There are movers and shakers. I'd rank Duale and Yattani (due to treasury slush fund) as the main movers.
Generally despite the pastoralism links with Kalenjin - Ruto outwardly Christian push - and Raila's pro-muslim stance - balance things out.
So generally just know this will be 50:50 game.
It's low population counties - total of a million cushitic votes - with about 0.7M expected in all that huge area.
About 30 mps - about 7 governors.
Ok,let's wait for 9th,all of a sudden,opinion polls gave become bad .
Topic: North Eastern is Azimionated (Read 2119 times)