Straight Intelligence from Kamwangi,Kiambu for Ruto & UDA

[Githunguri]

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Friends,

I went to Karimenu dam project at Kamwangi and interacted with some local residents in a local hotel.I was having a cup of tea and i was listening to a political conversation and most of those kikuyu were pro Raila/Azimio...I went to a bar that night and the story was the same...Ruto needs not bank on GEMA.It may end up Raila 50 :Ruto 50 or Raila may have an edge.The only place i think Ruto will get most votes in Kirinyaga....Otherwise they will embarass him on the ballot.Mark my words.

[RV Pundit]

50:50 Ruto still wins. Make it less than 50 percent of the entire GEMA; That is from Meru, Tharaka, Embu to 5 kikuyu counties in former central prov and their diaspora in Nairobi, Nakuru, Laikipia and a smattering elsewhere.

At 48 percent - Ruto wins - below that - he goes below 50 percent - and will need to work hard in other places - maDVD+Weta have given him that wiggle room - remember in MOAS I did scenerios - Ruto wins with GEMA at 40 percent if he get Kalonzo - at 50 percent if he get MADVD- at 60 percent if he get WETA.

The maths is really simple; 50:50 takes gema out of equation - they become useless - zero/nada- it become a battle of the next big 4 tribes; Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kambas. Luo and Kalenjin will vote for their candidate - Ruto will get slight edge because Kalenjin are more; then it become battle for Luhya and Kambas - otherwise rest of the small tribes ni 50:50 - Raila has an edge in Gusii - Ruto has an edge in MATUSA - for the Mijikendas- Raila takes Kilifi- Ruto takes Kwale.


For Raila first worry about getting Kalonzo - he needs 3 billion Kshs ASAP - then we can start talking. Ruto might get him the 3 billion Shs before Uhuru does....seems he is not ready to spend money...he wants to use gov money to hoist his project.

For now Raila is not even at 40 percent (still huko down 37 percent) - with generous 30-35 percent of GEMA vote - while Ruto is comfortably at 55 percent with 70 percent of GEMA. To knock 5 percent  from Ruto so he can barely win - you need to knock out a lot - every 1 percent on Ruto is equivalent to losing 5 percent of GEMA - so at 60 - Ruto goes down to 53 - at 50 percent - he is at 51 percent.

Friends,

I went to Karimenu dam project at Kamwangi and interacted with some local residents in a local hotel.I was having a cup of tea and i was listening to a political conversation and most of those kikuyu were pro Raila/Azimio...I went to a bar that night and the story was the same...Ruto needs not bank on GEMA.It may end up Raila 50 :Ruto 50 or Raila may have an edge.The only place i think Ruto will get most votes in Kirinyaga....Otherwise they will embarass him on the ballot.Mark my words.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

50:50 Ruto still wins. Make it less than 50 percent of the entire GEMA; That is from Meru, Tharaka, Embu to 5 kikuyu counties in former central prov and their diaspora in Nairobi, Nakuru, Laikipia and a smattering elsewhere.

At 48 percent - Ruto wins - below that - he goes below 50 percent - and will need to work hard in other places - maDVD+Weta have given him that wiggle room - remember in MOAS I did scenerios - Ruto wins with GEMA at 40 percent if he get Kalonzo - at 50 percent if he get MADVD- at 60 percent if he get WETA.

The maths is really simple; 50:50 takes gema out of equation - they become useless - zero/nada- it become a battle of the next big 4 tribes; Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kambas. Luo and Kalenjin will vote for their candidate - Ruto will get slight edge because Kalenjin are more; then it become battle for Luhya and Kambas - otherwise rest of the small tribes ni 50:50 - Raila has an edge in Gusii - Ruto has an edge in MATUSA - for the Mijikendas- Raila takes Kilifi- Ruto takes Kwale.


For Raila first worry about getting Kalonzo - he needs 3 billion Kshs ASAP - then we can start talking. Ruto might get him the 3 billion Shs before Uhuru does....seems he is not ready to spend money...he wants to use gov money to hoist his project.

For now Raila is not even at 40 percent (still huko down 37 percent) - with generous 30-35 percent of GEMA vote - while Ruto is comfortably at 55 percent with 70 percent of GEMA. To knock 5 percent  from Ruto so he can barely win - you need to knock out a lot - every 1 percent on Ruto is equivalent to losing 5 percent of GEMA - so at 60 - Ruto goes down to 53 - at 50 percent - he is at 51 percent.

Friends,

I went to Karimenu dam project at Kamwangi and interacted with some local residents in a local hotel.I was having a cup of tea and i was listening to a political conversation and most of those kikuyu were pro Raila/Azimio...I went to a bar that night and the story was the same...Ruto needs not bank on GEMA.It may end up Raila 50 :Ruto 50 or Raila may have an edge.The only place i think Ruto will get most votes in Kirinyaga....Otherwise they will embarass him on the ballot.Mark my words.

Pundit,
Wacha kuumiza Ojinga!

[RV Pundit]

They never listen anyway
Bado they will shout - rigging - when it clear as day that Raila had no chance in 2017 and 2013 - and now in 2022!
Gema is simple - population is about 17+4+1=22/23- but because it's more mature (more adults) & since 2007 have been turning up - their punch last election was close to 28 percent.
Post Odinga - and without a candidate - we are going to see a drop to around 25-26 percent of the national vote - low turnout/low registration.
If you even assume Raila and Uhuru work miracles - and Ruto really screw up
They go 50-50 - that is 13 percent each.
Now Ruto add Kalenjin at 14 percent
Now Raila add Luos at 11 percent
The battle moves to Luhya (14 percent) and Ukambani (10 percent)
Both Ruto and Raila will likely get 25 percent each - with Ruto edging Raila in Luhya & Raila in Kambas - and ASSUMING Kalonzo comes on board.
You can see Ruto has an edge because Luhya is bigger nation than Kambas.
The rest is 50-50 - Raila might have edge here - Ruto has edge there.
So again even if you make all sort of projection - it's now impossible for Ruto to lose.
Labda he becomes 49 versus 50 or something that close - if Uhuru works GEMA and Kalonzo come on board & work Ukambani.

Pundit,
Wacha kuumiza Ojinga!