UDA capable of getting 2/3 of parliament

[RV Pundit]

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I will be doing MOASS soon for MPs

UDA if it doesnt concede to Azimio madness has broad support it's likely to get seats all over the country except Luo Nyanza.

Ruto seem to enjoy national support - with areas where he is doing badly - above 35%.

Azimio has gazillion of parties backing it - everywhere they are three or more parties - they will probably end up with 20 useless parties all running under Azimio- all fielding candidates - and I dont see how they can agree to Azimio one candidate.

Roughly I expect Ruto to sweep through most of Kalenjin+Matusa+GEMA Mps seat - former Jubilee zones - the party support here is more than 50 percent - unassailable.

That should take Ruto to nearly 170mps that original Jubilee got.

Ruto will need 50 more Mps - smart combination in Western with ANC/FORD-K will bring about another 20 Mps.

That leave 30 Mps - if he improves in COAST - he can add 10 more there.

If he works Ukambani - with four or five parties there splitting votes in Azimio PNU madness- he can get 10 mps - if Muthama+Ruto were to fund them.

That leave just 10 mps to be picked from gusii and all over....again benefiting from Azimio-PNU madness. And Ruto's UDA will probably nominate another 7.

And Kenya Kwanza coalition will be very capable of amending the Katiba - and will pass anything they want anytime.

As for Azimio - I expect ODM Mps to reduce from 62 (70 with women Mps) - further down to 40 Mps - and it will largest party in Azimio - Jubilee will be happy to get 20 Mps seats if Uhuru was to open the taps - the rest will have less 20 Mps. Combined Azimio will struggle to get 100Mps.

[RV Pundit]

Tribally of 290 elected mps +women mps.
Kikuyus have 50mps - with ability to get women reps in 5+3 in diaspora.
Kalenjin follow with 45 mps- with ability to get women rep in 7+3 in diaspora
Luhya follow with 35mps - with ability to get 4+2 women reps
Luo follow with 28Mps - with ability to get 4 women rep
Kamba with 23mps - with 3 women rep
Somali 20mps - with 3 women rep
Gusii 15mps - with 2 women rep
Mijikenda 15mps - with 4 women rep
Merus/Tharaka 11mps - with 2 women rep.

Kikuyu and Kalenjin will almost be neck n neck at around 55 mps each
Luhyas will follow with 40mps.
That is 150mps...just 20 mps shy of 50% of parliament.
All these areas - Ruto's UDA+KK - are capable of nearly sweeping the board

[audacityofhope]

Ukianzana na threads with these kind of outlandish titles, you will be left talking to yourself.

[RV Pundit]

I dont seek validation -:) When you go silent - then I know I am on the right path.

Ukianzana na threads with these kind of outlandish titles, you will be left talking to yourself.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Pure hogwash and hallucination. 

You are not getting PORK nor parliamentary majority, take that to the bank.

[Nowayhaha]

Who is taking ?

Pure hogwash and hallucination. 

You are not getting PORK nor parliamentary majority, take that to the bank.

[RV Pundit]

These things are easy to predict
Let keep it Mps
In 2013 - URP had 72 mps plus TNA 85 mps - ODM had 96Mp - all mps+women rep.
I predicted Jubilee would improve from combined 160Mps to close to 190Mps
ODM would sink from 96 to now about 70Mps.
I think Jubilee now has about 140 elected const Mp - about 26/30 women Mps - plus nominated Mps
It about 190-200Mps if you include KANU and allied parties. NASA crew have about 130Mps - with ODM 70, Kalonzo 20, maDVD 12 and Weta 5 - and allied parties.

Now looking at the map - Ruto strategic decisions - his wide national appeal - Raila's weaken ODM as compromise with AZIMIO parties and in attempt to run away from Orange - now donning blue gear - ODM will leak!

I am predicting UDA including Kenya Kwanza will improve - by retaining Jubilee 190Mps - to almost 225.

All Ruto need to do is retain UDA's former Jubilee zone, work on western to get 20 mps, and then take advantage of Azimio gazillion parties in Ukambani, Coast, Gusii and such.

I dont see how Azimio crew can agree on joint candidate for any other seats apart from PORK. Even today in Kilifi - PAA have refused to attend a rally.

ODM this time round will LEAK even in Luo Nyanza. The decision not go for nomination but use fake opinion polls is postponing a problem

Raila has made strategic decision to kill ODM and try to get power. If it backfires; ODM is dead meat; Raila is dead; Ruto enjoy the biggest mandate ever in modern history of kenya.

In fact even that 40 Mps - might be a tall order for ODM. They may end up with 30 mps

[RV Pundit]

Nairobi 17 - Azimio could agree if ODM and Jubilee railroad aspirants - they will bring Ngatias based on bought opinion polls to be slaughtered - elsewhere it' wont be pretty- as those small parties exist mainly to get Mps and funding .