You need an excel so when we are talking - you run these scenarios.
Ruto right now is at 55 percent - after big boost from maDVD+Weta.
He is at 65 percent in my MOASS - in central proper plus meru (I expect Uhuru and company to put up a dog fight) - doing great in embu and tharaka - and amongst diaspora kikuyus.
Now for Ruto to lose 5 percent - of the national vot - he would basically have to move 25 percent down - that is 40 percent
That will make him at 50 percent.
Raila at that point will move to 42 percent and would need Kalonzo.
Your maths is upside down. You are talking of 90% as if its up for grabs. In that 90 % 40 % is guaranteed for Raila if Kalonzo supports him. The battle as you can see is between that 10 % which Raila thinks he can get from Mt Kenya . 400K votes will be like 4 % of the votes . Thats a substatial figure .I told you more than 28 Counties. Which is more than a half of all total counties.
You seem to deceive yourself Ruto can win without Mt Kenya . Fact is he cant. He needs to work hard to get bigger curve in Mt Kenya.
However unlike you Ruto is a smart and practical politicians si mambo ya excell . He was in Kiambu again yesterday. By the time elections come Kiambu will be his most visited county.Take this to the bank.