LSK chair Havi joins UDA

[RV Pundit]

You still dont get it. Ruto unlike Uhuru has broad support. He is beating Raila everywhere except Nyanza. Ruto has been carefully to court GEMA without loosing Non-GEMA. This is something Raila is unable to do. Ruto knows how to walk the tight rope. It takes incredible discipline and messaging. You dont get overexcited with Musa propaganda like one man one shilling and you find you've lost 75 percent of Kenya who are non-gema.

Now I have run the maths - Ruto can win even with 40% of GEMA - if he can get Kambas or a Kamba size vote.

Uhuru can offer Raila state machinery - but so far evidence suggest Ruto is overspending state machinery 10:0. So what exactly is state machinery - threats of prosecution from Kinoti - on governors - ndio imebaki - and maybe later prov administration.

Governors are buying time - and like gov operatives - come February - all hell break loose for Uhuru. Governors will openly move to UDA because they need UDA to make it in April nomination.

Uhuru is a factor he has to be in the game for ruto anti dynasty message to work. Uhuru has chosen to not engage be lame duck but offer raila the state machinery to compete. Now those opposed to uhuru like ichungwa have to find a boogeyman. The ground in Central is not yet firmed on ruto. You will find most of vocal ruto supporters are young people and opportunists. If you look at iebc registration and voting you find this group is didn't register and if it did they may not vote.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

DP saved his presidential campaign money in 2013-2015. Even the Kenyan treasury will struggle to compete with him. At a minimum, he will spend 5-10 million daily, but from February next year to the election, he will ratchet up to 100m a day if need be.  Like we learned in form two, money is a store of value, a medium of exchange, or a commodity used to move immovable things. All those non-moving governors will soon start moving!