Weta likely to Join UDA - Bukusu here like Termi, Pragmatic and Audacity wont

[RV Pundit]

Who is the most attractive going in 2022 for people like Weta. Ruto who need a small push or Raila who need everyone on the deck. Once you have analyze that - youll realize small dogs will be going to Ruto.

Obviously someone like MaDVD/Kalonzo interested at DPORK - will want to talk to Raila.

But the third tier - Wetas - those will talk to anybody.

I believe Weta will join UDA for three reasons
1) First he is not in any serious consideration in any ticket
2) Ford-K schism and Raila's taking his Minority Leader - rules any deal with Raila- and doing another maDVD -AMANI - is well know 4%.
3) Ruto is offering Tranzoia to Wetangula's man Chris Wamalwa - Kalenjin are 40 percent and if you add Kikuyus it sure bet. Bungoma's Wangamati is now Ford-K (Asili) - Raila crew. Lusaka is a very popular and Ruto man.

Once you've analyze those two - Wetangula will join Ruto. For now he is just buying time.

Raila is done with Raila - that is why he is trying to split Ford-K using Eseli, Wangamati and Wamunyinyi.

Pundit let deal with news. Reality. We all have our wishes as ODM or UDA backers. These guys are always bickering like step-kids in big family. They cry about party funds, or NASA MOU, or "trust" - but don't spin away their association with Raila or Uhuru like they do Ruto. It like 2012 when Ruto would meet Raila secretly to demand 60% - after demonizing him for 5 years - and URP and Kalenjin still vehemently denounced the meetings or any deal with Raila.

NASA (and Uhuru-Kieleweke) have demonized Ruto for years. It hard to embrace him overnight without looking like a turncoat. So Oparanya meets him and claim he was sent by Raila Kalonzo heard the Itumbi rumors and promptly declared Wiper incompatible with wheelbarrow. Mdvd is probably the worst Ruto critic in OKA - don't bet on a deal soon - if you don't see any gradual cozying up. Even Weta distances himself often - I don't see any deal likely.

Now if Weta was angling to join Ruto, or in quiet talks - he would not play second fiddle to Mdvd - cause he need something to deliver to Ruto. Weta seems hopeful to be CS in Handshake - no he is not governor type due to the hubris and image issues of step-down from Bukusu kingpin. These desperados really need hybrid hat-trick which Raila offers them. Ruto offers NOTHING. Ati governor  - that only appeals to Chris Wamalwa or Eseli - not even Lusaka is that excited after speaker stint with national profile.

So long as BBI remain in play - don't expect any of these guys to join Ruto. If small chance BBI hope die - Raila would cobble NARC 2 lineup - of 5 big kabila - and promise BBI hybrid in 100 days ala Kibaki.

[RV Pundit]

If Kingi and Mvurya are not with Baba - they are with Ruto. They know Baba is Joho man.
In coast - Ruto has nailed Taita-Taveta - that is his second home now - where he farms - and has all leaders bar the governor only.
Ruto doesn't have to worry about Lamu - I think he has Lamu - both west with GEMA and the East.
Ruto has serious play in Kwale.
Ruto plays 50 in Tana River - which has pastoralists.

Ruto will only struggle in Kilifi if he doesn't win Kingi.

Mombasa is 50-50 - how they treat the Mijikenda could flip Mombasa - Joho/Raila plans to back billionaire Suleiman - against the Deputy Gov - a Mijikenda who are 30 percent of Mombasa.

Pundit & Noway - about pwani, what is Ruto plan? He is there often but Mvurya and Kingi give him a wide berth. No traction after small Msambweni excitement.

There is no mass defection to UDA anywhere outside Kalenjin. Pwani is one of the most obvious failures.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Noway you will lose the bet,most likely wetangula can join. Mzito can give him an ambassador job most likely to Tokyo Japan

[Nowayhaha]

In Coast Rutos plan is simple . Once Uhuru who is  the boogeyman (Kenyaatta to Coast is akin to Raila in Mt Kenya ) in Coast is out of picture his plan is just to harvest . You saw what happened in Msambweni .
Ruto will edge out Raila in all Coast Counties except Mombasa where Luo Diaspora is the majority followed by Mijikenda .
 going into details of 2017 Coast General election results Refer below

COUNTY      REGISTERED   UHURU     RAILA
MOMBASA    580,223         99,508     238,943
KWALE         281,041         43,812     138,664
KILIFI           508,068        49,693     273,852
TANARIVER   118,327         24,225    24,423
LAMU            69,776           24,225    24,423
TAITA TAVETA  155,716        31,158   79,832

Its very evident when they say the junk of the meat is with Kilifi and Mombasa - Now Kilifi as we speak Ruto has edged Raila out and worst case scenario they will split 50% and Mombasa Majority of Mijikenda will vote for Ruto .
Taita Taveta where Uhuru owns half of the land and hence have always voted against him will revert back to Ruto with a majority appoximately 70 % save for the Kambas living in the midst .
Lamu and Tanariver thats without a question Ruto will take and Kwale if we go Kilifis way of 50/50 There you have it , Ruto takes Coast .

Now when all the political pundits focus on Mt Kenya , They forget where Raila share of vote will decrease in 2022 from 2017 . This is how we calculated Jubilees win prior to election . Incomparison between 2013 and 2017 Strategy was to Increase UhuRutos share of the vote in more of the most populous counties, increase UhuRutos  share of the vote in more counties than Raila, Higher Turnout in Jubilees stronghold and make it a two horse race and eat into previously Mudavadi/P.K./ votes .

Pundit & Noway - about pwani, what is Ruto plan? He is there often but Mvurya and Kingi give him a wide berth. No traction after small Msambweni excitement.

There is no mass defection to UDA anywhere outside Kalenjin. Pwani is one of the most obvious failures.

[RV Pundit]

Nowaya - Mijikenda are 30 percent of Mombasa - the majority - Luos, Luhya and Kambas are each about 15 percent.Other kabilas are 25 percent combined.

[Nowayhaha]

RV, True MADVD/ Kalonzo will try and get DPORK - This certainly will go Kalonzos way relegating MDVD to a "Ghost "Prime Minster/Chief Minister Contestant . MDVD will be offered the same in UDA - He will evaluate his options and once he sees Ruto winning he will abandon Raila-Kalonzo and cross the floor . One of the reason they were hoping BBI Passes so as to have a constitutional acknowledged post .

Pundit Says

I believe Weta will join UDA for three reasons

1) First he is not in any serious consideration in any ticket

True  , thats why he did what he did in 2013 and tagged himself with CORD -So as to take advantange or so he thought of the situation . He will do the same

2) Ford-K schism and Raila's taking his Minority Leader - rules any deal with Raila- and doing another maDVD -AMANI - is well know 4%.

- Kalonzo was mistreated by Raila and corinies from 2006 to 2012 but still joined them come 2013 when he ran out of options . Similarly Politicans forget all mistreatments if they see a chance of benefiting

3) Ruto is offering Tranzoia to Wetangula's man Chris Wamalwa - Kalenjin are 40 percent and if you add Kikuyus it sure bet. Bungoma's Wangamati is now Ford-K (Asili) - Raila crew. Lusaka is a very popular and Ruto man.

Lusaka is actually Eugine Wamalwa guy and Eugene Wamalwa is now in Railas corner . Reason Lusaka was instrumental in the kicking out of Rutos allies from committees is because he was instructed so by Wamalwa . He has also been instrumental in the expelling of Nominated Jubilee senators allied to Ruto simply because of Eugene Wamalwa.

All said and done. There is some historical issues between Bukusus and Kalenjins for this reason it will be hard for Wetangula to support Ruto . In 2013 When Wetangula was on P.N.U.s side the Bukusus told him sorry we are not going to support another Mt Kenyan , hence the reason he shifted to CORD . Wetangula follows what his electorate says .

Who is the most attractive going in 2022 for people like Weta. Ruto who need a small push or Raila who need everyone on the deck. Once you have analyze that - youll realize small dogs will be going to Ruto.

Obviously someone like MaDVD/Kalonzo interested at DPORK - will want to talk to Raila.

But the third tier - Wetas - those will talk to anybody.

I believe Weta will join UDA for three reasons
1) First he is not in any serious consideration in any ticket
2) Ford-K schism and Raila's taking his Minority Leader - rules any deal with Raila- and doing another maDVD -AMANI - is well know 4%.
3) Ruto is offering Tranzoia to Wetangula's man Chris Wamalwa - Kalenjin are 40 percent and if you add Kikuyus it sure bet. Bungoma's Wangamati is now Ford-K (Asili) - Raila crew. Lusaka is a very popular and Ruto man.

Once you've analyze those two - Wetangula will join Ruto. For now he is just buying time.

Raila is done with Raila - that is why he is trying to split Ford-K using Eseli, Wangamati and Wamunyinyi.

Pundit let deal with news. Reality. We all have our wishes as ODM or UDA backers. These guys are always bickering like step-kids in big family. They cry about party funds, or NASA MOU, or "trust" - but don't spin away their association with Raila or Uhuru like they do Ruto. It like 2012 when Ruto would meet Raila secretly to demand 60% - after demonizing him for 5 years - and URP and Kalenjin still vehemently denounced the meetings or any deal with Raila.

NASA (and Uhuru-Kieleweke) have demonized Ruto for years. It hard to embrace him overnight without looking like a turncoat. So Oparanya meets him and claim he was sent by Raila Kalonzo heard the Itumbi rumors and promptly declared Wiper incompatible with wheelbarrow. Mdvd is probably the worst Ruto critic in OKA - don't bet on a deal soon - if you don't see any gradual cozying up. Even Weta distances himself often - I don't see any deal likely.

Now if Weta was angling to join Ruto, or in quiet talks - he would not play second fiddle to Mdvd - cause he need something to deliver to Ruto. Weta seems hopeful to be CS in Handshake - no he is not governor type due to the hubris and image issues of step-down from Bukusu kingpin. These desperados really need hybrid hat-trick which Raila offers them. Ruto offers NOTHING. Ati governor  - that only appeals to Chris Wamalwa or Eseli - not even Lusaka is that excited after speaker stint with national profile.

So long as BBI remain in play - don't expect any of these guys to join Ruto. If small chance BBI hope die - Raila would cobble NARC 2 lineup - of 5 big kabila - and promise BBI hybrid in 100 days ala Kibaki.

[Nowayhaha]

RV , Mijikenda and Luos even out at 30 % of registered voters  with Luos having a slight majority (due to Mombasa slums) Reason why Raila got almost 70% of the vote  , A majority of Mijikenda who make a living in Mombasa commute from Kilifi ( Mtwapa and environs) and majority prefer to get registered in Kilifi where as others are not interested in politics at all unlike Luos .

Nowaya - Mijikenda are 30 percent of Mombasa - the majority - Luos, Luhya and Kambas are each about 15 percent.Other kabilas are 25 percent combined.

[RV Pundit]

Mombasa-Mijikenda 30%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%,Akamba 17%,others 20%. The Kambas are more than Luos.

Kilifi and Kwale - Mijikendas are 83- and 87 percent.

Of Mijikenda - 9 tribes - the Giriamas of Kilifi are the majority

RV , Mijikenda and Luos even out at 30 % of registered voters  with Luos having a slight majority (due to Mombasa slums) Reason why Raila got almost 70% of the vote  , A majority of Mijikenda who make a living in Mombasa commute from Kilifi ( Mtwapa and environs) and majority prefer to get registered in Kilifi where as others are not interested in politics at all unlike Luos .

Nowaya - Mijikenda are 30 percent of Mombasa - the majority - Luos, Luhya and Kambas are each about 15 percent.Other kabilas are 25 percent combined.

[Nowayhaha]

You are talking about electorate or general population. Secondly Kambas in 80s used to be many especially in Chamgamwe area  not anymore.
There is no way they are more than Luos. You can even go back and check 2007 election results in Mombasa where both Raila and Kalonzo were contenstants

Mombasa-Mijikenda 30%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%,Akamba 17%,others 20%. The Kambas are more than Luos.

Kilifi and Kwale - Mijikendas are 83- and 87 percent.

Of Mijikenda - 9 tribes - the Giriamas of Kilifi are the majority

RV , Mijikenda and Luos even out at 30 % of registered voters  with Luos having a slight majority (due to Mombasa slums) Reason why Raila got almost 70% of the vote  , A majority of Mijikenda who make a living in Mombasa commute from Kilifi ( Mtwapa and environs) and majority prefer to get registered in Kilifi where as others are not interested in politics at all unlike Luos .

Nowaya - Mijikenda are 30 percent of Mombasa - the majority - Luos, Luhya and Kambas are each about 15 percent.Other kabilas are 25 percent combined.

[Nefertiti]

Noway - Mdvd's severe criticism of Ruto as corrupt, etc indicates no sign of cozying up. Worst Mdvd has (high) hopes of being Handshake katikati candidate in case BBI die and Raila lose hope of beating Ruto. It is therefore hard for Mdvd to join Ruto.

But I agree anything is possible in politics.

[RV Pundit]

Raila inherited Mijikenda votes from KANU - therefore he starts comfortably at 50 percent in Mombasa - but Mijikenda are leaving him now. Now Kavirondo (Luo, Luhya, Gusii) in urban areas normally merge - so Raila takes the Luhya vote too.

You are talking about electorate or general population. Secondly Kambas in 80s used to be many especially in Chamgamwe area  not anymore.
There is no way they are more than Luos. You can even go back and check 2007 election results in Mombasa where both Raila and Kalonzo were contenstants

Mombasa-Mijikenda 30%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%,Akamba 17%,others 20%. The Kambas are more than Luos.

Kilifi and Kwale - Mijikendas are 83- and 87 percent.

Of Mijikenda - 9 tribes - the Giriamas of Kilifi are the majority

RV , Mijikenda and Luos even out at 30 % of registered voters  with Luos having a slight majority (due to Mombasa slums) Reason why Raila got almost 70% of the vote  , A majority of Mijikenda who make a living in Mombasa commute from Kilifi ( Mtwapa and environs) and majority prefer to get registered in Kilifi where as others are not interested in politics at all unlike Luos .

Nowaya - Mijikenda are 30 percent of Mombasa - the majority - Luos, Luhya and Kambas are each about 15 percent.Other kabilas are 25 percent combined.

[RV Pundit]

Both Kalonzo and maDVD are trying to overleverage their 4 and 8 percent - Ruto has made it clear that DPORK and 50 percent is gone - to Mt Kenya. So yes maDVD and Kalonzo will not make a deal with Ruto. Ruto is looking for likes of Weta or Kingi or such to bring 2 percent here and there...for Speaker or Cabinet position. These are folks able to deliver 300-500k votes as rigging margin buffer and insurance for hardcore gema who may not play ball.

Ruto already has the numbers - he is just securing the vote - once you get Jubilee coalition of 55 percent together in UDA like Ruto has done - bar the 16 mps - then really the game is to just play it out of the ballpark

Noway - Mdvd's severe criticism of Ruto as corrupt, etc indicates no sign of cozying up. Worst Mdvd has (high) hopes of being Handshake katikati candidate in case BBI die and Raila lose hope of beating Ruto. It is therefore hard for Mdvd to join Ruto.

But I agree anything is possible in politics.

[RV Pundit]

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