Robina - Sticky this - Ruto in 2022 is unbeatable

[RV Pundit]

You'll miss many vital lesson. Ruto is now taking it by force.

Wake me up when he does, going back to sleep.

[Kichwa]

Take what by force?  I think I am napping but you are sound asleep and writing in your dreams.

You'll miss many vital lesson. Ruto is now taking it by force.

Wake me up when he does, going back to sleep.

[RV Pundit]

As always we shall see who will disappear as always

Take what by force?  I think I am napping but you are sound asleep and writing in your dreams.

[Kichwa]

1) Remember when we told you that kumi/kumi was not gonna work because it is nt visible
2) Remember when we told you that abaondoning UDM for Jubilee was a bad idea

As always we shall see who will disappear as always

Take what by force?  I think I am napping but you are sound asleep and writing in your dreams.

[RV Pundit]

1) Remember when we told you that kumi/kumi was not gonna work because it is nt visible
2) Remember when we told you that abaondoning UDM for Jubilee was a bad idea

As always we shall see who will disappear as always

Take what by force?  I think I am napping but you are sound asleep and writing in your dreams.

Jubilee achieved its job of strong coupling

[Kichwa]

Exactly, strong coupling for one election-that's what coalitions are for. Ruto thought he could build a Kanu-like national party.  Those day are gone.

3) Also, Remember how long it took you to realize that  Ruto and Ouru were really done.  You wasted our time with silly conspiracy theories of how RAO was being duped.

4) BBI will pass;

Now, here is another one:

5) I do not know who will be the president yet in 2022, but its not going to be Ruto.  The president will come out of the BBI side.

 Ruto has no path to the presidency in 2022.   He had a very good plan and it could have worked if NOT for RAO. He never saw handshake coming. Ruto did it to RAO too in 2013. Reminds me of what Mike Tyson said, "you have a plan until you are hit".  This is the second time RAO is doing it  to a Kale.  Moi had a plan for his succession which he thought was full-proof-Ouru.  He never saw "Kibaki Tosha" coming. it's a killer political upper cut. Since handshake, Ruto has been disoriented, kicking, screaming and grasping for air. He is putting up a brave face but its obvious that he is taking in a lot of water and that boat is sinking.  Its just a matter of time and it will be all over. I wonder how it ended for Juma and Msando.

1) Remember when we told you that kumi/kumi was not gonna work because it is nt visible
2) Remember when we told you that abaondoning UDM for Jubilee was a bad idea

As always we shall see who will disappear as always

Take what by force?  I think I am napping but you are sound asleep and writing in your dreams.

Jubilee achieved its job of strong coupling

[RV Pundit]

1) Jubilee is very strong except for a retiring Uhuru - who is struggling to stay above water in mt kenya - while Ruto command the entire Jubilee stronghold. I hope you saw Uhuru in Uthiru with handful of people - and Ruto in Kiambu with multitude.  The reality from ground as you heard from polls - BBI is unpopular - Uhuru is unpopular. Ruto is very popular and as we near 2022 - Mt kenya leaders will completely abandon Uhuru. Right now I think about 50 out 80 have already heeded the ground call.

2) Uhuru has no option except to call for cease fire - he is down and out. I don't see how he can navigate without GEMA buy in. If he is smart and rational - he needs to run ahead of GEMA - and do handshake with Ruto. He simply cannot beat him - except maybe kill Ruto.

3) BBI is time barred. It already been fatally wounded by court that has ordered IEBC to cease work on it until 9 court cases are heard and determined. Those cases will be appealed. DOA. Lets not even talk about it's unpopularity on the ground. It has 21% national support - is opposed by all progressive forces - and has only enthusiastic support in Luo Nyanza.

4) Ruto baring assisination is the next president.

Kichwa I told you to watch my man show you how win power. Raila right now after all the sucking up to Uhuru and GEMA - is left with Kamanda. The rest know he is a skunk.

As we near 2022 - Uhuru will realize he cannot fight his own people - and will reconcile.

If he is rational that is. I only do my punditry assuming people will make rational decision.

Ruto will go down in history as president elected with highest margin ever - because he is managed to unit GEMA and NON-GEMA - the man is gifted tactician, leader and strategist..

Exactly, strong coupling for one election-that's what coalitions are for. Ruto thought he could build a Kanu-like national party.  Those day are gone.

3) Also, Remember how long it took you to realize that  Ruto and Ouru were really done.  You wasted our time with silly conspiracy theories of how RAO was being duped.

4) BBI will pass;

Now, here is another one:

5) I do not know who will be the president yet in 2022, but its not going to be Ruto.  The president will come out of the BBI side.

 Ruto has no path to the presidency in 2022.   He had a very good plan and it could have worked if NOT for RAO. He never saw handshake coming. Ruto did it to RAO too in 2013. Reminds me of what Mike Tyson said, "you have a plan until you are hit".  This is the second time RAO is doing it  to a Kale.  Moi had a plan for his succession which he thought was full-proof-Ouru.  He never saw "Kibaki Tosha" coming. it's a killer political upper cut. Since handshake, Ruto has been disoriented, kicking, screaming and grasping for air. He is putting up a brave face but its obvious that he is taking in a lot of water and that boat is sinking.  Its just a matter of time and it will be all over. I wonder how it ended for Juma and Msando.

1) Remember when we told you that kumi/kumi was not gonna work because it is nt visible
2) Remember when we told you that abaondoning UDM for Jubilee was a bad idea

As always we shall see who will disappear as always

Take what by force?  I think I am napping but you are sound asleep and writing in your dreams.

Jubilee achieved its job of strong coupling

[Kichwa]

OK - to be continued after BBI has passed.

1) Jubilee is very strong except for a retiring Uhuru - who is struggling to stay above water in mt kenya - while Ruto command the entire Jubilee stronghold. I hope you saw Uhuru in Uthiru with handful of people - and Ruto in Kiambu with multitude.  The reality from ground as you heard from polls - BBI is unpopular - Uhuru is unpopular. Ruto is very popular and as we near 2022 - Mt kenya leaders will completely abandon Uhuru. Right now I think about 50 out 80 have already heeded the ground call.

2) Uhuru has no option except to call for cease fire - he is down and out. I don't see how he can navigate without GEMA buy in. If he is smart and rational - he needs to run ahead of GEMA - and do handshake with Ruto. He simply cannot beat him - except maybe kill Ruto.

3) BBI is time barred. It already been fatally wounded by court that has ordered IEBC to cease work on it until 9 court cases are heard and determined. Those cases will be appealed. DOA. Lets not even talk about it's unpopularity on the ground. It has 21% national support - is opposed by all progressive forces - and has only enthusiastic support in Luo Nyanza.

4) Ruto baring assisination is the next president.

Kichwa I told you to watch my man show you how win power. Raila right now after all the sucking up to Uhuru and GEMA - is left with Kamanda. The rest know he is a skunk.

As we near 2022 - Uhuru will realize he cannot fight his own people - and will reconcile.

If he is rational that is. I only do my punditry assuming people will make rational decision.

Ruto will go down in history as president elected with highest margin ever - because he is managed to unit GEMA and NON-GEMA - the man is gifted tactician, leader and strategist..

Exactly, strong coupling for one election-that's what coalitions are for. Ruto thought he could build a Kanu-like national party.  Those day are gone.

3) Also, Remember how long it took you to realize that  Ruto and Ouru were really done.  You wasted our time with silly conspiracy theories of how RAO was being duped.

4) BBI will pass;

Now, here is another one:

5) I do not know who will be the president yet in 2022, but its not going to be Ruto.  The president will come out of the BBI side.

 Ruto has no path to the presidency in 2022.   He had a very good plan and it could have worked if NOT for RAO. He never saw handshake coming. Ruto did it to RAO too in 2013. Reminds me of what Mike Tyson said, "you have a plan until you are hit".  This is the second time RAO is doing it  to a Kale.  Moi had a plan for his succession which he thought was full-proof-Ouru.  He never saw "Kibaki Tosha" coming. it's a killer political upper cut. Since handshake, Ruto has been disoriented, kicking, screaming and grasping for air. He is putting up a brave face but its obvious that he is taking in a lot of water and that boat is sinking.  Its just a matter of time and it will be all over. I wonder how it ended for Juma and Msando.

1) Remember when we told you that kumi/kumi was not gonna work because it is nt visible
2) Remember when we told you that abaondoning UDM for Jubilee was a bad idea

As always we shall see who will disappear as always

Take what by force?  I think I am napping but you are sound asleep and writing in your dreams.

Jubilee achieved its job of strong coupling

[RV Pundit]

It almost impossible for Ruto to lose.

There are areas Ruto will get some votes - and others he wont (for now Luo Nyanza for sure)

Core (Cattle Complex Pastoral Group ) - URP - go with 80 percent hapo
RV - 25 percent of the vote -  21 - going with 98 of kalenjin, 50 percent of kikuyus, 70 percent of Matusa.
NEP+Isolo+marsabit- 3 percent - 2 - going with 2/3 of the cushites.


Core (GEMA) -Jubilee/UDA - go even with 50 percent to make you really hopeful
Central - 15 percent - 7.5
Nairobi - 12 percent of the vote - roughly split into half - 6 percent pro-Jubilee - 6 percent pro-nasa - 4
Eastern -6 percent (Meru+tharaka+embu) - ignore the 3 counties of Ukambani - 3


Swing Zones (30-40) percent
Gusii+Kuria(half migori) - 5 percent -2
coast - 8 percent -3

.....maybe a few votes
Western - 10 percent - 4 counties  - let assume 10 percent - 1

Do the maths 21+2+7.5+4+3+2+3+1

Total= 44 percent. That is Ruto firing at 50 percent in GEMA - 30 percent in swing zones - and 10 percent in Western - zero percent in Ukambani and Luo Nyanza. And turn out being equal countrywide.

Now let assume 44 percent is Ruto baseline now.

To win in 2022- Ruto needs to do one or two of these things

If Ruto get 60 percent of GEMA - he adds another 3 percent - 47 percent.
If Ruto get 70 percent of GEMA - he adds another  3 percent - 50 percent
If Ruto improves Kalenjin registration and turn out - he can easily get another 2 percent;
If Ruto signs a deal with Weta he gets another 3 percent.
If Ruto signs a deal with Kalonzo he gets another 8 percent
If Ruto signs a deal with maDVD he gets another 4 percent.
If Ruto improves coast to 50 percent - he get another 1 percent.
If Ruto signs a deal with Kingi-Mvurya new coast party - he gets another 2 percent.

[RV Pundit]

Once you have cracked GEMA - and have significant non-GEMA; you cannot lose Miss Robina. This is normally the hardest battle. Nobody has ever done this outside GEMA leaders. Moi failed. Raila has failed. MaDVD failed. Name them.