Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on January 05, 2021, 11:29:05 PM
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Election is 8 days...a week..and Museveni is going into it after a year of some of toughest covid 19 restrictions that has made poor young ugandans almost suicidal.
It's going down. Bhang smoking red eyed Ghetto president has dared the man nobody really seriously dared.
Museveni will rig himself in.
There will be violent national protest - especially in urban centers - with looting and the works.
Museveni will kill and maim.
Uganda will enter bad books of Biden as the first customer. Sanctions will follow. Maybe ICC will get involved.
Uganda will go down - and eventually Museveni will be overthrown - and he will escape to exile.
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US observers withdraw as M7 army moves in to "provide security." I see no hope for Bobi. M7 needs internal NRM coup ala Mugabe, Bashir.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/us-cancel-uganda-election-observation-3255738
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I hope Biden sanctions the old thug to the bone but don't hold your breath. M7 is crafty. He sneaked in a raft of anti-gay and oppressive laws Obama last days and during Trump. Gay laws and freedom to tweet will be eased - to buy him few more years. M7 and Kagame have used women rights and gender parity as liberal facade to seduce the west for years. I think women are 30% MPs and even cabinet including VP. Of course they are powerless flowergirls but it great PR.
Election is 8 days...a week..and Museveni is going into it after a year of some of toughest covid 19 restrictions that has made poor young ugandans almost suicidal.
It's going down. Bhang smoking red eyed Ghetto president has dared the man nobody really seriously dared.
Museveni will rig himself in.
There will be violent national protest - especially in urban centers - with looting and the works.
Museveni will kill and maim.
Uganda will enter bad books of Biden as the first customer. Sanctions will follow. Maybe ICC will get involved.
Uganda will go down - and eventually Museveni will be overthrown - and he will escape to exile.
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I had side girl friend that I implored to get out but she refused...shit going down...m7 is hoping for quick crackdown but I think with Biden..it going to be long struggle
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Senile M7 ruthlessly going for clean sweep. This very bad omen for Ruto.
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You mean clean rigging in a dictatorship.Kenya cannot be taken such route unless you want something worse than 2007
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8% reported bobi wine is leading
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It more than likely that Museveni will rig himself; the issues is how Ugandans and the world will react.
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You mean clean rigging in a dictatorship.Kenya cannot be taken such route unless you want something worse than 2007
any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%
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Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.
any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%
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Museveni take huge lead 65%
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/museveni-in-early-lead-as-uganda-awaits-final-election-results-3257924
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Biden has bigger problems than Uganda. M7 will declare himself winner and by next week the world will have forgotten Uganda.
M7 cannot loose any kind of "election".
Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.
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He has to act if Museveni kills many Ugandans. The youth revolt will determine it.
Biden has bigger problems than Uganda. M7 will declare himself winner and by next week the world will have forgotten Uganda.
M7 cannot loose any kind of "election".
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Yeah UG might be in trouble but nothing significant to rattle M7 hardened thug. Few visa freezes for NRM generals or electoral commission poodles. M7 as he go senile will likely be inherited by the army commander son - or overthrown by NRM like Mugabe.
Of course i don't buy that "Biden is crazy" - i see him as a softie. Obama and Hillary Clinton were the hawks who wrecked havoc in Middle East and North Africa. The ongoing Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen horrors are likely to make Biden very careful. I suspect and hope Kamala Harris is relatively hardcore with her rough prosecutor record of locking up M23 drug dealers here in California. Kamala's foreign policy views are unknown.
The incoming SoS Tony Blinken is at best a foreign dove. Best known for assuaging policies than confrontation. Blinken has been Biden's foreign advisor so far and indications are containing China through "peaceful and legal means" - obviously it include sucking up to friendly dictators in UG and Egypt.
M7 strongest carrot is Biden's deep love for women, LGBT and such liberalism - which M7 and Kagame milk by propping flowegirls as ministers, MPs, etc. With female VP, expect foxy M7 to ease anti-gay laws, appoint lesbian UN ambassador, probably top up with LGBT rights committee or such.
Geopolitically UG strongly leans US/West which makes it a strategic misnomer for western powers to want M7 out. Bobi Wine could lean China so don't be naive about western hypocrisy. The incoming US admin has in fact dented democratic, economic and geopolitical credentials and has bigger fish to fry.
Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.
any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%
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Africans do not like the idea of dying. M7 does not need to kill many. 50 to 100 is enough for the youth to cool down. The revolt against M7 will be over before it has started.
He has to act if Museveni kills many Ugandans. The youth revolt will determine it.
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Museveni enjoyed Uganda support until Bobi Wine happened.
Now he is entering the illegitimate era and is not useful to anybody.
Magufuli is a nut case but he is popular. Meles the same. Kagame is also still genuinely popular. Museveni descent has started.
That is why for first time he has shutdown the internet and disallowed foreign journalist, foreign observers.
The US and EU will have no option except come hard on M7 - it's inevitable.
Biden the way I see is don't like bullies...like M7...and M7 era as blue-eyed boy of the west is well over.
Yeah UG might be in trouble but nothing significant to rattle M7 hardened thug. Few visa freezes for NRM generals or electoral commission poodles. M7 as he go senile will likely be inherited by the army commander son - or overthrown by NRM like Mugabe.
Of course i don't buy that "Biden is crazy" - i see him as a softie. Obama and Hillary Clinton were the hawks who wrecked havoc in Middle East and North Africa. The ongoing Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen horrors are likely to make Biden very careful. I suspect and hope Kamala Harris is relatively hardcore with her rough prosecutor record of locking up M23 drug dealers here in California. Kamala's foreign policy views are unknown.
The incoming SoS Tony Blinken is at best a foreign dove. Best known for assuaging policies than confrontation. Blinken has been Biden's foreign advisor so far and indications are containing China through "peaceful and legal means" - obviously it include sucking up to friendly dictators in UG and Egypt.
M7 strongest carrot is Biden's deep love for women, LGBT and such liberalism - which M7 and Kagame milk by propping flowegirls as ministers, MPs, etc. With female VP, expect foxy M7 to ease anti-gay laws, appoint lesbian UN ambassador, probably top up with LGBT rights committee or such.
Geopolitically UG strongly leans US/West which makes it a strategic misnomer for western powers to want M7 out. Bobi Wine could lean China so don't be naive about western hypocrisy. The incoming US admin has in fact dented democratic, economic and geopolitical credentials and has bigger fish to fry.
Biden is crazy - and doesn't like dictators.
2ndly it depend on Uganda - if they riot - leading to death and carnage - sanctions will come.
Definitely Museveni could find himself in unfamiliar territory like Moi did in 90s.
Sanctions will hit Uganda hard because their budget is still donor funded.
any sanctions on Magufool? after 85% clean sweep. Earlier kagame made a cleaner sweep at 98%
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The higher the bodycount the more ominous for likes of Ruto. Optics. It is not the best time to be the opposition guy.
Africans do not like the idea of dying. M7 does not need to kill many. 50 to 100 is enough for the youth to cool down. The revolt against M7 will be over before it has started.
He has to act if Museveni kills many Ugandans. The youth revolt will determine it.
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I really hope you are right but logic says otherwise. US or western foreign policy is just hypocisy - otherwise a despot like Saudi Prince MBS who EJK journalists would not have carte blanche. And Egypt al-Sisi who lock up all opponents. They didn't back M7 so far due to some secret opinion poll - Dr Besigye was equally wildly popular - it geopolitics. UG strongly leans West despite Kenya, TZ, Ethiopia going for Chinese big cheques. If you're Bobi Wine and beat M7 - you are more likely to look East - China cheap infra than WB small chques with many conditions. That makes the status quo better than change for America. Noone will be squeezing M7 out of power soon if not NRM army.
Museveni enjoyed Uganda support until Bobi Wine happened.
Now he is entering the illegitimate era and is not useful to anybody.
Magufuli is a nut case but he is popular. Meles the same. Kagame is also still genuinely popular. Museveni descent has started.
That is why for first time he has shutdown the internet and disallowed foreign journalist, foreign observers.
The US and EU will have no option except come hard on M7 - it's inevitable.
Biden the way I see is don't like bullies...like M7...and M7 era as blue-eyed boy of the west is well over.
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30% in... M7 65% vs 27% Bobi
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Seem NRM will lose supermajority in parliament.. as Bobi party win some NRM seats.
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Africans do not like the idea of dying. M7 does not need to kill many. 50 to 100 is enough for the youth to cool down. The revolt against M7 will be over before it has started.
He has to act if Museveni kills many Ugandans. The youth revolt will determine it.
Some Africans will. In Kenya they will take those losses, as long as Baba says keep it up. Ug is between a rock and a hard place. They lack the pro-democracy ethos that Kenya was able to build, while they were left to resort to more drastic measures of going to the bush. So they just know oppression and violent resistance.
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Mzungu thinks all is kosher - never mind the internet lockdown and Bobi is under house arrest.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/we-re-impressed-with-uganda-poll-says-eu-3258910
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The EU has this time not deployed election monitors, as it has traditionally done, in part because the government of Uganda has not implemented a raft of recommendations that the EU election Observers have made during the past polls.
Mzungu thinks all is kosher - never mind the internet lockdown and Bobi is under house arrest.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/we-re-impressed-with-uganda-poll-says-eu-3258910
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Museveni declares himself winner by 58% against Bob 34%
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Big surprise. :D :D :D
Museveni declares himself winner by 58% against Bob 34%
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Imagine. And they still issue statements about how "well organised and professionally conducted" the elections were!
The EU has this time not deployed election monitors, as it has traditionally done, in part because the government of Uganda has not implemented a raft of recommendations that the EU election Observers have made during the past polls.
Mzungu thinks all is kosher - never mind the internet lockdown and Bobi is under house arrest.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/we-re-impressed-with-uganda-poll-says-eu-3258910
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Robina, our business here as armchair analysts is to try analyze stuff - accurately I must say. After reading what was on the link, that you posted, this is the correct assessment you should have made and not have to wait for @Pundit to put the record straight before doing so ....
Me thinking Msambweni hit you like Corona: Recoveries, research shows - may still carry with them lingering longterm effects after suffering irreversibly damage from the Covid-19 attack .... :shock:
Mzungu thinks all is kosher - never mind the internet lockdown and Bobi is under house arrest.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/we-re-impressed-with-uganda-poll-says-eu-3258910
Imagine. And they still issue statements about how "well organised and professionally conducted" the elections were!
The EU has this time not deployed election monitors, as it has traditionally done, in part because the government of Uganda has not implemented a raft of recommendations that the EU election Observers have made during the past polls.
Mzungu thinks all is kosher - never mind the internet lockdown and Bobi is under house arrest.
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/we-re-impressed-with-uganda-poll-says-eu-3258910
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Uganda has long way to go because UPDF is like a second wing of NRM.This another Zimbabwe.Museveni will only be defeated by UPDF..like they ordered Mugabe to resign
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UPDF must have done a Michuki for EC to declare 58%. I also noticed it was 5.8 million votes. Must be senile Saleh and Muhoozi maths.
Were there spontaneous celebrations in Kalenjin land after Moi wins in 97, 92?
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The whole election is big shame of course. The UPDF unlike KDF are very active in politics and regular policing roles. There cannot be any democracy in such an environment. Even street demos cannot happen when Army has basically deployed tanks on the streets.
M7 when he dies or get very old will probably lead to fallout in the army - esp if Muhoozi is imposed.
As for Moi - rigging happened but generally Moi was popular political animal - and the opposition were so tribal - none really enjoyed anything close to national support - required to run the nation.
It would change in 2002 when they united - otherwise it would have been tragic if say Kibaki or Matiba had won - with backing of their tribes only.
The 2010 constitution has permanently fixed that by requiring someone to get 50% plus one - so we don't end up with someone winning with 20% of the vote.
UPDF must have done a Michuki for EC to declare 58%. I also noticed it was 5.8 million votes. Must be senile Saleh and Muhoozi maths.
Were there spontaneous celebrations in Kalenjin land after Moi wins in 97, 92?
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Uhuru politicisation is a dangerous trend. NMS, Railway- once they start getting opportunities to harass and extort from raia it is madness.
I saw Wandia Njoya asking what was wrong with 66, 82 coups given what ufool is doing. Or is Badi still a commissioned officer- what does it mena that he reports directly to ufool just like the Chief of Staff who I can't even remeber their. what does Badi's popularity mean toi him and the guys he is at with at NMS?
I am interested to know whether there were serious celebrations in Kale land as seems there is little coming for Bazukulu.
The whole election is big shame of course. The UPDF unlike KDF are very active in politics and regular policing roles. There cannot be any democracy in such an environment. Even street demos cannot happen when Army has basically deployed tanks on the streets.
M7 when he dies or get very old will probably lead to fallout in the army - esp if Muhoozi is imposed.
As for Moi - rigging happened but generally Moi was popular political animal - and the opposition were so tribal - none really enjoyed anything close to national support - required to run the nation.
It would change in 2002 when they united - otherwise it would have been tragic if say Kibaki or Matiba had won - with backing of their tribes only.
The 2010 constitution has permanently fixed that by requiring someone to get 50% plus one - so we don't end up with someone winning with 20% of the vote.
UPDF must have done a Michuki for EC to declare 58%. I also noticed it was 5.8 million votes. Must be senile Saleh and Muhoozi maths.
Were there spontaneous celebrations in Kalenjin land after Moi wins in 97, 92?
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Yes, I have also spoken about it. The attempt by Uhuru to bring in the army to civilian affairs is very dangerous trend. It started after West-Gate - when army bulldozed their way to Immigration - Gen Kilahangwa and his boys took over - ostensibly because the immigration was corrupt -and KDF was paying the prize in Somali. Badi is the next. The KMS. It very bad trend. Once Ruto comes on - he should quietly send the army back to the barracks. Whatever merit they bring - when shit hit the fan - they may bring the tanks to the ship. If they engage in corruption - where do you take them? - KDF tribunal or normal court.
If anybody in military want to serve in civilian - they need to resign.
As for Moi winning - I don't remember celebration - akin to Narc Kenya Kibaki win.
Uhuru politicisation is a dangerous trend. NMS, Railway- once they start getting opportunities to harass and extort from raia it is madness.
I saw Wandia Njoya asking what was wrong with 66, 82 coups given what ufool is doing. Or is Badi still a commissioned officer- what does it mena that he reports directly to ufool just like the Chief of Staff who I can't even remeber their. what does Badi's popularity mean toi him and the guys he is at with at NMS?
I am interested to know whether there were serious celebrations in Kale land as seems there is little coming for Bazukulu.
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We are deeply troubled by the many credible reports of security force violence during the pre-election period and election irregularities during the polls. We strongly urge independent, credible, impartial, and thorough investigations into these reports and that those responsible be held accountable. We condemn the continuing attacks on political candidates and urge the government to respect their human rights and fundamental freedoms, including the freedom of expression. We are gravely concerned by harassment of and continued threats to civil society. Finally, we note the continued nationwide shutdown of the Internet and call for its immediate restoration along with that of social media services.
We reiterate our intention to pursue action against those responsible for the undermining of democracy and human rights in Uganda.
https://www.state.gov/national-elections-in-uganda/