Nipate

Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: gout on November 09, 2020, 03:27:28 PM

Title: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: gout on November 09, 2020, 03:27:28 PM
The effects of virus mismanagement.

For the beast said to contribute 6% of GDP, this is seismic.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2020, 07:23:48 PM
Disappointing. I thought data would grow exponentially. Folks are broke but Mpesa trx should skyrocket as covid force cashless economy.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2020, 07:25:35 PM
Pundit & hk - I warned you Tusker dwarf is no good for tech transformation. Are they still trying to scale to Ethiopia? The only news-worthy item in the last full year is closure of their Alpha lab.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 09, 2020, 07:59:09 PM
CBK illegally forced Safaricom to transfer money almost for free; during COVID-19. Kenyans are splitting transactions to below 1K. Mpesa is safaricom cash cow.

Safaricom is solid company.

This is COVID-19 - and to come out with 6% down is GREAT NEWS.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2020, 08:19:23 PM
Huh? - folks are sending Mpesa for free?? Safcom as digital leader should be milking covid in-door spend like AT&T and Viacoms here. They all doing better YoY.

CBK illegally forced Safaricom to transfer money almost for free; during COVID-19. Kenyans are splitting transactions to below 1K. Mpesa is safaricom cash cow.

Safaricom is solid company.

This is COVID-19 - and to come out with 6% down is GREAT NEWS.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 09, 2020, 08:23:47 PM
Safaricom without this - could have grown maybe another 25% as usual.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Safaricom-risks-billions-as-CBK-extends-free-M-Pesa-transfers/539546-5582454-10djast/index.html
Huh? - folks are sending Mpesa for free?? Safcom as digital leader should be milking covid in-door spend like AT&T and Viacoms here. They all doing better YoY.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 09, 2020, 08:57:36 PM
I see. This small disruption... basically they are mpesa company. What will they do as real disruption come?

Safaricom without this - could have grown maybe another 25% as usual.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Safaricom-risks-billions-as-CBK-extends-free-M-Pesa-transfers/539546-5582454-10djast/index.html
Huh? - folks are sending Mpesa for free?? Safcom as digital leader should be milking covid in-door spend like AT&T and Viacoms here. They all doing better YoY.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 09, 2020, 09:26:34 PM
Safaricom is not your mate. This is 12B dollar company with revenues of 3B dollars. Even in US - it would certainly feature - as a big company - maybe top 500 or 100?
I see. This small disruption... basically they are mpesa company. What will they do as real disruption come?
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 10, 2020, 12:03:56 AM
Lol definitely tiny SMB. Paypal is 216B. Alipay 200B. Uber 85B. Snapchat (teen photos) 60B. Stripe (fintech) is 36B. 13B company is the "small" in SMB.

Safaricom is Mpesa mobile pay business - Sim card - soon will be turned upside down by Facebooks. Facebook simcards will be in vogue soon with no roaming charges. Only diversifying into more product lines can save them... Masoko and Little Cab should be big subsidiaries by now otherwise they are doomed. I don't see a bright future for Safcom.

Safaricom is not your mate. This is 12B dollar company with revenues of 3B dollars. Even in US - it would certainly feature - as a big company - maybe top 500 or 100?
I see. This small disruption... basically they are mpesa company. What will they do as real disruption come?
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 10, 2020, 12:11:47 AM
Pundit there are no Fortune 500 companies in Sub Sahara let alone top 100

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_Global_500

Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 10, 2020, 03:21:19 AM
Kenyans need to think globally - but we are thinking regionally.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: hk on November 10, 2020, 08:42:33 AM
Pundit & hk - I warned you Tusker dwarf is no good for tech transformation. Are they still trying to scale to Ethiopia? The only news-worthy item in the last full year is closure of their Alpha lab.
Yes you were skeptical of the keg guy to drive up growth.  However the guy just took over April 1st 2020, not to say that he'll do a great going forward though. Safaricom key profit and revenue driver is Mpesa, once that  was adversely affect the revenue growth stalled. Data growth should have made up for loss in Mpesa revenue. Safaricom needs to borrow a page from Jio of india, offer cheap mobile data. This should have been a growth driver. Safaricom hasn't innovated since advent of Mpesa. Safaricom Mpesa risks being commoditized by a super app e.g what paypal,square did to visa,mastercard and bank accounts.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 10, 2020, 11:48:39 AM
Mpesa will die a technology soon. Then what?
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: gout on November 10, 2020, 08:18:55 PM
The beast inafuliza :D :D :D
Quote
Safaricom  borrowed additional short-term bank loans amounting to Sh24.7 billion in the half year ended September

This marks the largest borrowing by the cash-rich firm which had in recent years become almost debt-free as it made enough money to fund its operations and pay dividends.

The renewed borrowing appetite was driven by an early dividend payment besides increased investment in its mobile and financial service M-Pesa infrastructure.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/corporate/companies/safaricom-taps-sh24bn-loans-as-virus-cuts-profit-3016864
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 10, 2020, 09:11:20 PM
Pundit & hk - I warned you Tusker dwarf is no good for tech transformation. Are they still trying to scale to Ethiopia? The only news-worthy item in the last full year is closure of their Alpha lab.
Yes you were skeptical of the keg guy to drive up growth.  However the guy just took over April 1st 2020, not to say that he'll do a great going forward though. Safaricom key profit and revenue driver is Mpesa, once that  was adversely affect the revenue growth stalled. Data growth should have made up for loss in Mpesa revenue. Safaricom needs to borrow a page from Jio of india, offer cheap mobile data. This should have been a growth driver. Safaricom hasn't innovated since advent of Mpesa. Safaricom Mpesa risks being commoditized by a super app e.g what paypal,square did to visa,mastercard and bank accounts.

You are very right Mpesa is merely shielded by antiquated mast network - will shorty be disrupted by satellite. It was easy to conceive as early as IPO that as "top company" there was no way Safcom head of network - analog masts powered by generators - could double as head of innovation. They opened Alpha lab 10 years late but was built on quicksand without any real autonomy. I guess when Bob poofed they pushed out the iHub mhindi from IBM - forgot his name - who was Alpha manager. Corporate politics can be brutal.

I believe MJ did well partly for his tech chops - engineering background - seen less, felt more. Innovation was key for MJ. Bob was expert marketer who milked Mpesa dry with gazillion till numbers. But his Masoko, LittleCab, Digifarms, cloud - stood zero chance against AWS, Jumia, Uber. Bob was no innovator... which he prolly knew but hired yet another salesgirl from Pfizer to lead innovation. This Ndegwa is also sales guru but it wrong season for that. Now he need to look around real fast & furious for a solid R&D Leader - pay arm-&-leg or anything - and let them do their thing with his full backing. The dwarf is onto something with his going tech vision - but still basically phone-VAS business on a very short leash.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 10, 2020, 09:32:35 PM
Mpesa is not the tech. It's 250,000 network of Mpesa agents in every little harmlet.You can have all the fancy facebook money - but if you cannot use as ubiquitously as Mpesa in kenya it's not gonna work.

Mpesa now is matured product - no need to tinker it - just improve on it - and fight to replace cash. A lot of people still do useless cash transaction to mpesa - when they can pay money digitially.

Safaricom will make more money when they discourage this cash to mpesa or mpesa to cash.

They need to focus on growing annualy transactions from say 2 billion to say 5billion...which I belive is close to where VISA/MasterCard are - already MPESA is one of world busiest payment system.

More digital transactions - more money for Safaricom.

Kill the cash.Kill cash agent. Quadriple transactions. All the cash money movement is crucial critical data people "die for". This is data Safaricom will have - and they can sell it or push more products.

And once that is one - well Mpesa advantage also go away :) - everyone can therefore compete on digital money.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 10, 2020, 09:42:28 PM
Opps - master card does nearly 100B transaction annually. Safaricom is at 3-4B now. This volume of transactions. I think Safaricom can hit 10B easily.

Look like M-pesa Africa - is at 12B.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 10, 2020, 09:50:41 PM
Mpesa is not the tech. It's 250,000 network of Mpesa agents in every little harmlet.You can have all the fancy facebook money - but if you cannot use as ubiquitously as Mpesa in kenya it's not gonna work.

Mpesa now is matured product - no need to tinker it - just improve on it - and fight to replace cash. A lot of people still do useless cash transaction to mpesa - when they can pay money digitially.

Safaricom will make more money when they discourage this cash to mpesa or mpesa to cash.

They need to focus on growing annualy transactions from say 2 billion to say 5billion...which I belive is close to where VISA/MasterCard are - already MPESA is one of world busiest payment system.

More digital transactions - more money for Safaricom.

Kill the cash.Kill cash agent. Quadriple transactions. All the cash money movement is crucial critical data people "die for". This is data Safaricom will have - and they can sell it or push more products.

And once that is one - well Mpesa advantage also go away :) - everyone can therefore compete on digital money.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 10, 2020, 09:54:25 PM
Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 10, 2020, 10:12:39 PM
Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 10, 2020, 10:21:27 PM
CBK or Central Bankers regulations are key. No tech. Banking is easy - you can write the whole tech one afternoon.
Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 10, 2020, 10:39:47 PM
Satellite is the tech not apps. Uber, Netflix, AWS have not been banned and only physical masts and agents stop them from venturing into payments. Once FB or Google simcard become available on cheap phone - CBK will not ban them - cause besides that being good for development there WTO or whatever rules. Cabs and cable guys - gray city cabs, Citizens or DSTVs - have been crying after they were caught napping by Netflix and Uber. Matiang'i had to drag them by the hair to digital. Mpesa was first-to-market - luck :) - and need another MJ now to duplicate the magic. Opening Safcom Addis Ababa is DUMB cause there is no big banking gap to fill as in Kenya early 2000s. That an old idea in sunset years. The new opportunities need new solutions.

CBK or Central Bankers regulations are key. No tech. Banking is easy - you can write the whole tech one afternoon.
Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 10, 2020, 11:05:28 PM
Infrastructure is not Tech. It's more engineering. And there isn't so much iteration you can do there. Satellite tech is older than your grand parents.

MPESA strength lies in soft aspect - BEHAVIORAL DATA - is a goldmine.

That is why they released Fuliza - and they have loaned out more money in one year that Chinese loaned Kenya gov in many years. I believe they fulizaed more than 300B - and everday now they loan our more than 1-2B kshs - you get 4% of that - alot of money.

That is innovation you don;'t see.

Fuliza will make Safaricom tonnes of free money.

Google and Facebook strength is in the behavioral data they have on everyone - that is what they sell to advertizers - and make tonnes of money.

Not tech.

I use to think you're politically incompetent but I am beginning to understand it's more than that :)

Satellite is the tech not apps. Uber, Netflix, AWS have not been banned and only physical masts and agents stop them from venturing into payments. Once FB or Google simcard become available on cheap phone - CBK will not ban them - cause besides that being good for development there WTO or whatever rules. Cabs and cable guys - gray city cabs, Citizens or DSTVs - have been crying after they were caught napping by Netflix and Uber. Matiang'i had to drag them by the hair to digital. Mpesa was first-to-market - luck :) - and need another MJ now to duplicate the magic. Opening Safcom Addis Ababa is DUMB cause there is no big banking gap to fill as in Kenya early 2000s. That an old idea in sunset years. The new opportunities need new solutions.

CBK or Central Bankers regulations are key. No tech. Banking is easy - you can write the whole tech one afternoon.
Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 12, 2020, 01:51:24 PM
Google, FB, Uber strength is innovation - which create all tech hard or soft. Data is standard commodity in digital economy - not a differentiator. Safaricom has gazillion exabytes of data so what stop Masoko, Little Cab,  or Safcom Cloud, BIG-box TV from going ubiquitous ala Mpesa? 8) Cause they lack innovative ideas to beat Bolt or Google. Safcom stuff is "ubiquitous" - 90% penetration - only within Kenyan borders where MNC are held back by hard infra of masts and agents. In TZ or DRC or RSA or anywhere else Mpesa flop big against Eco-cash (Yu 8) ) - Airtel Money - whatnot. First-to-market advantage. Any sector without hard infra barrier - streaming, cabs, housing, ecommerce - they trip over themselves and quickly get their lunch eaten. They are only good enough to beat Telkoms and KCB not Netflix or Jumia.

Now if you check closely and see that Fuliza or Mshwari shylock is just another till number - one-dimensional growth of same old Mpesa. No new product for years which leave them as sitting ducks waiting to be swallowed by FBs. FB or Google is not worth 800B usd cause of 1B customers - but innovation - which create 00's of products that net 1B customers and 100B usd revenues. I opined a while ago about the one-dimensional growth - organic - is good yet entirely sub-optimal. Cause Safcom remain vertical business offering single product - Mpesa. They need to transform into tech - platform or horizontal business - which is simple but not easy. Tusker dwarf talks good game - of going tech - but must play bigger by laying down the innovation fabric - organizational, process, manpower, budget, autonomy, xyz. The window is so narrow today.

So yes satellite is as old as mankind - but has galloped over the decades into consumer commodity here in Bay Area or Shenzhen - soon on feature phone it go ubiquitous and disrupt telco mast. Only the primed will rip from it. Safcom lacks the focus to see around such small corners until they happen. That innovation day job - ready for disruptions and nail opportunities with new products.

Now what exactly is Safcom exporting to Addis Ababa? Mpesa? Internet? If you think Safcom has no innovation problem

Infrastructure is not Tech. It's more engineering. And there isn't so much iteration you can do there. Satellite tech is older than your grand parents.

MPESA strength lies in soft aspect - BEHAVIORAL DATA - is a goldmine.

That is why they released Fuliza - and they have loaned out more money in one year that Chinese loaned Kenya gov in many years. I believe they fulizaed more than 300B - and everday now they loan our more than 1-2B kshs - you get 4% of that - alot of money.

That is innovation you don;'t see.

Fuliza will make Safaricom tonnes of free money.

Google and Facebook strength is in the behavioral data they have on everyone - that is what they sell to advertizers - and make tonnes of money.

Not tech.

I use to think you're politically incompetent but I am beginning to understand it's more than that :)
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 12, 2020, 04:32:13 PM
Po-tay-toe po-ter-teu .. I only tolerate you cause you're the top of the retard class.

Infrastructure is not Tech. It's more engineering. And there isn't so much iteration you can do there.

I use to think you're politically incompetent but I am beginning to understand it's more than that :)
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 12, 2020, 04:52:20 PM
Satellite - how do you solve rain and clouds :)  The future is fiber; and Safaricom is working to own that too.

Or Google baloons that Telkom brought from Palbo Alto that are crashing in Congo :) while they are suppose to be in Kenya


Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 13, 2020, 10:11:28 AM
If you tell us why Safcom own nothing outside simcard - as cabs, e-commerce, cloud storage, streaming get cornered by MNC - you will see only state capture can save them. Otherwise satellite will kill them starting with internet then payments. Satellite phones are expensive but will drop precipitously as it go global. Cellular is akin to old landlines - antiquated solution in sunset days.

Data is definitely not the key driver but a small cog in innovation. Otherwise Safcom with 20 years of all local data already getting its butt kicked like kids by Uber and Netflix.

Satellite - how do you solve rain and clouds :)  The future is fiber; and Safaricom is working to own that too.

Or Google baloons that Telkom brought from Palbo Alto that are crashing in Congo :) while they are suppose to be in Kenya


Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: Nefertiti on November 13, 2020, 10:51:30 AM
Pundit if you are really Mpesa admin along with 10 more Joes - and not mere tree farmer - i get why Safcom remain tiny SMB with gazillion till numbers and tariffs. Did you realize since FULIZA 300B miracle last few years the ticker is stuck at 13B usd or shrunk - as AirBnBs skyrocket despite minting losses. Why do you think that is? Cleaning mountain of logs and switching servers cannot attract investors :)
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 13, 2020, 01:27:51 PM
Telkom is regulated;You cannot just dish satellite phones;
Banking is regulated; you cannot just unleash facebook money;

As for sat technology - that is clearly the past - nobody want an internet that is moody with weather - Africa kind of storm rains and cloudy cover will make nonsense of that.

Safaricom is doing great - only constrained by Vodafone/Vodacom parent company.

They should do more fuliza type of innovation - to build around their ecosystem.

If you tell us why Safcom own nothing outside simcard - as cabs, e-commerce, cloud storage, streaming get cornered by MNC - you will see only state capture can save them. Otherwise satellite will kill them starting with internet then payments. Satellite phones are expensive but will drop precipitously as it go global. Cellular is akin to old landlines - antiquated solution in sunset days.

Data is definitely not the key driver but a small cog in innovation. Otherwise Safcom with 20 years of all local data already getting its butt kicked like kids by Uber and Netflix.

Satellite - how do you solve rain and clouds :)  The future is fiber; and Safaricom is working to own that too.

Or Google baloons that Telkom brought from Palbo Alto that are crashing in Congo :) while they are suppose to be in Kenya


Once satellite scale - cheap satellite phone - everyone will have Facebook or Visa simcard. That leave Safcom with only agency advantage which going cashless erode. That the real risk Safcom faces. FB or etc simcard will also use ID verification. Safcom long beat incompetent Telkom or Airtels - real challenge is MNCs - who have run circles on cloud (Amazon, Google), streaming (Netflix, Amazon), e-commerce (Uber, Jumia), shared services (Uber, Taxify). Digital economy pie is already sliced except payment - Mpesa - cause physical network.

I see this as innovation weakness. While marketing or monetization is well covered with the vast agent network. They need more products or revenue streams which only innovation can give. Mpesa should scale the usd 10B obviously - gobble the bankers lunch - and use the cashflow wisely while it lasts.

Once we get to digital money - then any digital money approved by central bank or accepted - will work. We are still at infacy - mpesa to cash - cash to mpesa - still the game - and here the money agents are king of the system.

Now m-commerce - so whoever owns the phone - SIM card - will own the digital space. Of course whoever also own facebook and such social platform - will also own the space.

Infrastructure is low level and irrelevant. What is relevant is having SIM card with my personal information authenticated by Safaricom or my facebook account. Safaricom is more trust worthy because they check my ID. Regulators will have a problem with Facebook and others.

Yes. Ubiquitous Mpesa is shielded by mast network which stop MNC from swooping in. Satellite will kill that - all Visas have invested in satellite big.

Mpesa curve is at inflexion as growth driver - with less and less punch. Covid would be another PEV moment - if Masoko, etc products were well primed.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 13, 2020, 01:31:15 PM
Kenya company. Global companies. Don't compare the two. Many kenyans don't have global ambition. Just regional. And there in lies our problem.  And running mpesa is not a joke - that is one world busiest system - with minimal downtime.

Mpesa handles more than 1 transaction every milisecond.

Pundit if you are really Mpesa admin along with 10 more Joes - and not mere tree farmer - i get why Safcom remain tiny SMB with gazillion till numbers and tariffs. Did you realize since FULIZA 300B miracle last few years the ticker is stuck at 13B usd or shrunk - as AirBnBs skyrocket despite minting losses. Why do you think that is? Cleaning mountain of logs and switching servers cannot attract investors :)
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: gout on November 13, 2020, 04:15:56 PM
It is not ambition - it is mainly colonial boundaries constraints.  Lack of ambition is colonial imperialistic language conditioning. Kambas were doing cross border trade before IBEA evil empire.

Safaricom cannot penetrate Tanzania due to Magufool pettiness. We welcome Googles, Huawei, Vodacom, Coca Cola to  Africa as they are able to pay huge bribes to presidents and government officials. We kill Softa, Keroche and then claim mwafrika is not ambitious.

Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 13, 2020, 04:25:15 PM
I still think it's mentality; American have a global mentality because once they conquer the US; they know they can conquer anything. Kenya have that mentality for east africa. But beyond that - they get scared. So something like MPESA has to be globalized by others.
It is not ambition - it is mainly colonial boundaries constraints.  Lack of ambition is colonial imperialistic language conditioning. Kambas were doing cross border trade before IBEA evil empire.

Safaricom cannot penetrate Tanzania due to Magufool pettiness. We welcome Googles, Huawei, Vodacom, Coca Cola to  Africa as they are able to pay huge bribes to presidents and government officials. We kill Softa, Keroche and then claim mwafrika is not ambitious.


Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: gout on November 13, 2020, 06:18:20 PM
Once we invited Vodacom it means it is the one that dictates where mpesa can go. Parasitic leaders once the get the easy money cannot push for real work. You can see the way Huawei is being propped by the Chinese Govt. The retaliation on Google/Facebook in China. Global trade is geopolitical. Government has to have a vision other than land grabbing, Brookside money laundering and kickbacks in Jersey Islands.

I still think it's mentality; American have a global mentality because once they conquer the US; they know they can conquer anything. Kenya have that mentality for east africa. But beyond that - they get scared. So something like MPESA has to be globalized by others.
It is not ambition - it is mainly colonial boundaries constraints.  Lack of ambition is colonial imperialistic language conditioning. Kambas were doing cross border trade before IBEA evil empire.

Safaricom cannot penetrate Tanzania due to Magufool pettiness. We welcome Googles, Huawei, Vodacom, Coca Cola to  Africa as they are able to pay huge bribes to presidents and government officials. We kill Softa, Keroche and then claim mwafrika is not ambitious.


Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: hk on November 14, 2020, 08:06:29 AM
In my humble non-tech opinion is that Mpesa might become relegated to feeding(loading) and liquidating (withdraw) to a superior fintech app that sits on top of Mpesa. In this scenario bulk of Mpesa transactions would evaporate. The same way that provision of fibre is good but the bulk of the value chain goes internet companies that utilize internet as infrastructure.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: RV Pundit on November 14, 2020, 08:53:12 AM
SportPesa was doing exactly that -
In my humble non-tech opinion is that Mpesa might become relegated to feeding(loading) and liquidating (withdraw) to a superior fintech app that sits on top of Mpesa. In this scenario bulk of Mpesa transactions would evaporate. The same way that provision of fibre is good but the bulk of the value chain goes internet companies that utilize internet as infrastructure.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: hk on November 14, 2020, 12:19:00 PM
SportPesa was doing exactly that -
In my humble non-tech opinion is that Mpesa might become relegated to feeding(loading) and liquidating (withdraw) to a superior fintech app that sits on top of Mpesa. In this scenario bulk of Mpesa transactions would evaporate. The same way that provision of fibre is good but the bulk of the value chain goes internet companies that utilize internet as infrastructure.
I get your point about sportpesa. But I meant something like pesapal, jumiapay or eazzy pay or even paypal, once the money is loaded to this apps, Mpesa is out of the loop. Those apps can be used  to make peer to peer payments or to businesses. Mpesa would be starved of all those transactions outside their platform only cash in on loading and withdraw. That's what I meant by being commoditized. Obviously the apps would have to offer something more compelling than just payments platform just like Mpesa.
Title: Re: Safaricom catches the Jubilee Virus mismanagement cold-6%drop huge for a monster
Post by: KenyanPlato on November 14, 2020, 12:26:26 PM
Someone who wants to invest can come in and dethrone MPESA. It will be hard but it is doerable. There is nothing insanely unique about Mpesa in this era