Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on October 10, 2020, 09:38:53 PM
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Just because Raila failed doesn't mean everyone will fail to beat the system. Raila succeeded with Kibaki in 2002. And then he lost the plot because he has the sisyphian kind of curse where he cannot maintain friendship and support..and every election he starts from the scratch.
In 2002 - Raila and company beat Moi system. Moi could do nothing as he was whitewashed.
In 2005 - Raila and company beat Kibaki system. Kibaki got rained on despite winning by 63% two years earlier. The most clumsy politician in Africa was definitely Kibaki.
In 2007 - Raila should have won if Kallonzo had been selected. ODM had council of elders led by Gumo-Ntimama do the maths. It was VERY clear that anybody could beat unpopular clumsy Kibaki but not in good enough margins to avoid rigging. For Raila MOAS had 43-45. I think Papaf had his own with 44-44%. The wazee recommendation was to front Kalonzo because he'd win by 55% against Kibaki 43%. The difficult job to present the report was given to Ruto at Kenya Club. Ruto told Raila he had no winning buffer and Kalonzo should take the mantle - and Raila will go for prime minister. Raila went ballistics, cried and wondered why kenyans hate luos. Ruto told him it was what it was. Later on they beseiged Ruto in his home in Karen - and more cries later - including at Kass fm - Ruto accepted to support Raila DOA bid. Kalonzo left ODM. Raila got 45% that had no buffer from Kibaki rigging and he was predictably rigged out.
In 2013 (post 2007) - Raila would have won he if he had treated Ruto right. He lost all kalenjin votes and got Kamba votes. That got him stuck in 2007 position.
UhuRuto beat Kibaki-Raila system. Everyone with brain-cell knew the role Ruto had done in campaings, to raise funds for ODM, crazy well organized campaigns and even more to grind the gov to halt after the rigging. Ruto is one ambitious guy - he wanted to be rewarded with something bigger than Minister. He was already a minister during Moi time. All Raila needed to do was simpe - listen to Ruto minimum irreducible negotiation. Force kibaki to give ODM real 50-50. Have Ruto either as VP or DPM. But Raila being a fool went to Sagana and came back with most lopsided deal that made nonsense of everything ODM had worked hard for. Ruto was then handed a ministry...and from day one...Luo wing of ODM tried to checkmate his rise. Obviously post Sagana whitewash by Kibaki - Ruto was not interested in wasting time with brain dead Raila without any strategic or tactical mind.
In 2017 - to be honest he really had no path to success - not with Uhuru keeping a tight winning coalition happy - by bending backwards to Ruto. That is a lesson Rala skipped in 2007. Uhuru had treated Ruto like a king and shared power 50-50 - including in real ministries like interior, finance and etc. Basically if Raila had wanted - he had fronted even MaDVD - for loosing was GURANTEED - and made a deal to be backed in 2022 which is open.
Now 2022 - Raila is going to election again almost back to square one - where he is only assured of Luo votes - having completely destoryed NASA while trying to destroy Jubilee.
Now even if he wins part of Jubilee - it waste of money and time - because NASA is dead. It would be a easy task of adding 5% to NASA 45%. But where is NASA - he had Wetangula kicked out for no apparent strategic reason. He kicked out maDVD for no good reason. He hs derided Kalonzo and Kamba brigade. Small tribes left - and even Mijikenda are leaving - as slow-minded as they are - just think about that. Now all his 2022 plan revolve around a Tosha from Uhuru - that we KNOW IS NOT COMING.
Raila failure has got nothing to do with rigging or system or deep state. It's plain incompetence that he has never been PORK despite trying since 1982!! which is 40yrs. Ruto at 54 yrs has achieved more and will nick PORK.
Now 54yr Ruto has run circles around the gov so called system or deep state - they are blocking the goal posts with a bus, their hand or anything - they are now banning Ruto meetings 2yrs to election!!!
Anyway watch as Ruto wins this.
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This contest or debate now is about the power of machinery. We know tribes, money, turnout are big factors. Let see how this goes - seem they have banned ALL hustler rallies and harambees as threat to security - with Murang'a evidence - while Raila meet Kikuyu elders. Gusii, Msambweni - even Mumias church fundraiser for tomorrow has been outlawed by OCS.
My contention is Raila is good enough to beat Mobutu with friendly machinery.
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Wheelbarrow crew teargassed as Mobutu church fundraiser in Mumias tomorrow outlawed
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You're yet to understand politics. Politics is about winning votes. It is popularity contest. It's about looking good.
Is what Matiangi doing winning him any votes? Is it stopping Ruto? Maybe temporarily but he is loosing votes.
The only machinery is the ground - the people - who will wake up and elect you.
If you use that machinery to do a good job - like Matiangi used to do in ministry of education - you become popular.
If you use that machinery like Ruto used to build roads and launch project - you become popular.
But if you're misusing power - like Moi (actually people around him)- you'll become unpopular and hated. And it won't work because any rigging is only on the margins.
Raila for example is now losing the very last bit of support for being part of the oppressive machinery.
Matiangi became DOA long time ago - show me Interior Minister in charge of the world worst police - that will win election.
Ruto is using his machinery to donate money and wheelbarrows - in liue of starting or launching gov projects.
Now these guys have machinery - but they are using it to make Uhuru, raila and themselves VERY UNPOPULAR. Then they wonder why Ruto is becoming More Popular :)
Come election d-day - will you use the police to stop voters from voting :) - or how exactly willl you pull rigging - when election results will start streaming 1hr from 5pm on August 22nd 2022 - and it won't even be close.
Maybe you can pull Kibera in a national scale - get a few voters in the morning - and the scare away everyone else.
This contest or debate now is about the power of machinery. We know tribes, money, turnout are big factors. Let see how this goes - seem they have banned ALL hustler rallies and harambees as threat to security - with Murang'a evidence - while Raila meet Kikuyu elders. Gusii, Msambweni - even Mumias church fundraiser for tomorrow has been outlawed by OCS.
My contention is Raila is good enough to beat Mobutu with friendly machinery.
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Ruto is using his machinery to donate money and wheelbarrows - in liue of starting or launching gov projects.
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This contest or debate now is about the power of machinery. ...
My contention is Raila is good enough to beat Mobutu with friendly machinery.
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The scholarships were for dynastic chiefs kids and select loyalists who already had a head start with colonial set up. The hustlers would receive no scholarship. The dynasties are so stupid they can't get that there are hustlers who were starting from scratch from the forest while they were already boarding planes on scholarships.
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The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.
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You're talking universities when 90% of Kenya kids are scoring D and below.Only 2% are graduates in this country. 98% need Ruto kind of intervention and help to start SME
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Precisely this is why they don't get it.
The scholarships were for dynastic chiefs kids and select loyalists who already had a head start with colonial set up. The hustlers would receive no scholarship. The dynasties are so stupid they can't get that there are hustlers who were starting from scratch from the forest while they were already boarding planes on scholarships.
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Power as far as we know is taken. It's not given. Only a fool goes around expecting to be given on a silver platter. It's reason Ruto has campaigned non-stop since 1997 when he entered politics.
Raila indeed was rigged out in 2007 but the rest he lost fair and square begin in 1982, 1992, 1997, 2013 and 2017. That ODM guys like you feel cynical and defeated is understandable but watch Ruto beat the so called system at the ballot box. And it won't even be close.What you call system - Ruto has been part of it - in Moi's and Uhuru's - it's very weaken now - unlike say Moi time - and yet Moi always had to work his butt. Right now judiciary is independent and makes any system move null and void.
2022 if everything is kept constant we will see
1) Ruto - Kiunjuri - Ruto will score more than 60%. Ruto is likely to start with solid 25% in rift valley alone.
2) Raila - Gema poodle - any - Raila will come 2nd with less than 20%. Most likely someone as desperate as Waiguru. or even PK.
3) Matiangi-Kagwe (or reverse) - this one will likely be the 'system' project running under Jubilee. I don't belive Raila will be trusted by GEMA elite or can be sold in GEMA (you can see games they are playing with BBI) - this one at very best will struggle to get 15% but may fly at least with some Gusii people...Nyachae got 4% there. so if they really work hard they may get 50% of GEMA - about 13% plus gusii 4% - and but they are confirmed dead elsewhere.
4) Madvd/Mutua/Kalonzo - They will score btw 2-4%.
Now the only risk I see is all of them merging to stop Ruto - but who will head the ticket. Raila nope. He already messed up with his NASA partners. Matiangi - Kagwe - are going to be arguably the most incompotent hated arrogant bunch with zero political experiences.
As you can clearly see Ruto is destined for PORK. At this point in time Ruto doesn't even need GEMA votes. The Hustler Nation is national.
And tell me how system will rig Ruto out when it's not even close.
The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.
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The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.
And add 2010 referendumn , because they have one connection , Only time Raila was on a winning team ( He didnt even win) .
Come give it up already , 2022 you will cry the same song like a broken record .
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5) NARC 2 aka BBI coalition headed by Raila will wipe the floor with Mobutu. Hustler nation is a lie - well except in Tangatanga echo chamber. Poor vs rich has been preached since 1992 - and all rich and poor split perfectly into tribes. This includes 2002 Big 4 tribal coalition against Kalenjin. Sonko is the only example you can tout as cohesive slum poor - but it all smoke - primary was mlolongo ukora. General elections was Jubilee vs NASA tribes. I mean your own MOAS here were "bullseye" on Sonko 53% vs 47% Kidero - based on tribal census.
In short - hustler nation is a novel concept or experiment. But it Mobutu only hope so you are dropping magic numbers 40%, 65%, 50% - without any factual basis. A proper basis would be number of Kenyans under the poverty line - which I think is 70% - and run that experiment in Msambweni.
You see Mobutu - just like his looting "hustles" - cannot make it in any fair match. He brazenly bribed voters in Kibra then cried when the favor was returned. He is now bribing voters and rich vs poor incitement - but he whines all over about police harassment. He is addicted to impunity - sadly his opponents are better equipped in it.
Power as far as we know is taken. It's not given. Only a fool goes around expecting to be given on a silver platter. It's reason Ruto has campaigned non-stop since 1997 when he entered politics.
Raila indeed was rigged out in 2007 but the rest he lost fair and square begin in 1982, 1992, 1997, 2013 and 2017. That ODM guys like you feel cynical and defeated is understandable but watch Ruto beat the so called system at the ballot box. And it won't even be close.What you call system - Ruto has been part of it - in Moi's and Uhuru's - it's very weaken now - unlike say Moi time - and yet Moi always had to work his butt. Right now judiciary is independent and makes any system move null and void.
2022 if everything is kept constant we will see
1) Ruto - Kiunjuri - Ruto will score more than 60%. Ruto is likely to start with solid 25% in rift valley alone.
2) Raila - Gema poodle - any - Raila will come 2nd with less than 20%. Most likely someone as desperate as Waiguru. or even PK.
3) Matiangi-Kagwe (or reverse) - this one will likely be the 'system' project running under Jubilee. I don't belive Raila will be trusted by GEMA elite or can be sold in GEMA (you can see games they are playing with BBI) - this one at very best will struggle to get 15% but may fly at least with some Gusii people...Nyachae got 4% there. so if they really work hard they may get 50% of GEMA - about 13% plus gusii 4% - and but they are confirmed dead elsewhere.
4) Madvd/Mutua/Kalonzo - They will score btw 2-4%.
Now the only risk I see is all of them merging to stop Ruto - but who will head the ticket. Raila nope. He already messed up with his NASA partners. Matiangi - Kagwe - are going to be arguably the most incompotent hated arrogant bunch with zero political experiences.
As you can clearly see Ruto is destined for PORK. At this point in time Ruto doesn't even need GEMA votes. The Hustler Nation is national.
And tell me how system will rig Ruto out when it's not even close.
The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.
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Pundit and Noway - if you doubt you are delusional - explain again how voter bribery is okay but not abuse of machinery. I forgot the spin. Wheelbarrowism is basically loot distribution program.
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Raira has been brainwashed by the wheeler dealers in statehouse and Windsor that whats missing for him to win is them? Very ridiculous, funny stuff he has bought it instead of campaigning on the ground he is busy hosting wazees and only kikuyu, i think his grey matter is eroded seriously, so what does he expect other kabilas to think? Raira won't garner past 20% in 2022. He need to retire while he can.
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You idiots are acting as if we do not know how one becomes a Kenyan president. It takes 1)government mechanizations 2) the ability to win at least 35-50% of the votes. Raila has been able to win the requisite amount of votes to become president but he had zero government mechanization and we know the result of that. Ruto can only become president with government mechanizations and that is what he planned for until he out-did himself by kujipanga too much. Raila with government mechanizations is a shoe-in. This is Ruto's highest peak in Kenyan politics. He will be cut down to a very small size come 2022.
Raira has been brainwashed by the wheeler dealers in statehouse and Windsor that whats missing for him to win is them? Very ridiculous, funny stuff he has bought it instead of campaigning on the ground he is busy hosting wazees and only kikuyu, i think his grey matter is eroded seriously, so what does he expect other kabilas to think? Raira won't garner past 20% in 2022. He need to retire while he can.
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According to this lot tribalism was king until Mobutu invented hustler nation. Pundit estimates the present status as Mobutu 65% vs 15% Raila. Don't ask silly questions.
You idiots are acting as if we do not know how one becomes a Kenyan president. It takes 1)government mechanizations 2) the ability to win at least 35-50% of the votes. Raila has been able to win the requisite amount of votes to become president but he had zero government mechanization and we know the result of that. Ruto can only become president with government mechanizations and that is what he planned for until he out-did himself by kujipanga too much. Raila with government mechanizations is a shoe-in. Raila can even win the 60% required for a revolution if the government is on his side 100% but that is not necessary. This is Ruto's highest peak in Kenyan politics. He will be cut down to a very small size come 2020.
Raira has been brainwashed by the wheeler dealers in statehouse and Windsor that whats missing for him to win is them? Very ridiculous, funny stuff he has bought it instead of campaigning on the ground he is busy hosting wazees and only kikuyu, i think his grey matter is eroded seriously, so what does he expect other kabilas to think? Raira won't garner past 20% in 2022. He need to retire while he can.
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Robina and kichwa start rehearsals for babas inauguration, its not first time raira has inspected a presidential guard of honor. Shonesha suti na tai. Please don't wait
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Narc 2 didn't just happen because you looked for somebody here and there - and make a coalition. NARC started as Non-GEMA revolt against the choice of Uhuru by Moi. Moi had built a coalition of small tribes mostly kamatusa, somalis, coast, ukambani - basically the old ODM minus Luos. He then took in NDP. Naturally this coalition was built around anti-Kikiyuism. When Moi turned 360 and endorsed to endorse GEMA it lead to revolt. That revolt gave the country the momentum to beat Moi.
Now BBI - what will make people vote for such unpopular thing? Okay let even forget that - let talk tribal cards - who will head the ticket? Raila? GEMA elite cannot trust or sell Raila. Kalonzo will be out of such BBI. maDVD will be out of such BBi.
Tell you what we will have Raila's BBI - like I told you - compete for no 2 with Matiangi-Kagwe-gideon project - they will struggle to get 20%. Raila's BBI will have the usual - Joho, Oparanya, token gema - etc - likes of Gideon Moi and Uhuru are dyed in the wool Raila haters - trust me they will never back Raila.
If Raila really and truly wants to have some competition in 2022 - he should become a kingmaker. He comes with 15% boost for any candidate.
But will Raila at his age accept to be a kingmaker.
Okay I think the answer is clear - Ruto is the NEXT PORK baring a disaster.
5) NARC 2 aka BBI coalition headed by Raila will wipe the floor with Mobutu. Hustler nation is a lie - well except in Tangatanga echo chamber. Poor vs rich has been preached since 1992 - and all rich and poor split perfectly into tribes. This includes 2002 Big 4 tribal coalition against Kalenjin. Sonko is the only example you can tout as cohesive slum poor - but it all smoke - primary was mlolongo ukora. General elections was Jubilee vs NASA tribes. I mean your own MOAS here were "bullseye" on Sonko 53% vs 47% Kidero - based on tribal census.
In short - hustler nation is a novel concept or experiment. But it Mobutu only hope so you are dropping magic numbers 40%, 65%, 50% - without any factual basis. A proper basis would be number of Kenyans under the poverty line - which I think is 70% - and run that experiment in Msambweni.
You see Mobutu - just like his looting "hustles" - cannot make it in any fair match. He brazenly bribed voters in Kibra then cried when the favor was returned. He is now bribing voters and rich vs poor incitement - but he whines all over about police harassment. He is addicted to impunity - sadly his opponents are better equipped in it.
Power as far as we know is taken. It's not given. Only a fool goes around expecting to be given on a silver platter. It's reason Ruto has campaigned non-stop since 1997 when he entered politics.
Raila indeed was rigged out in 2007 but the rest he lost fair and square begin in 1982, 1992, 1997, 2013 and 2017. That ODM guys like you feel cynical and defeated is understandable but watch Ruto beat the so called system at the ballot box. And it won't even be close.What you call system - Ruto has been part of it - in Moi's and Uhuru's - it's very weaken now - unlike say Moi time - and yet Moi always had to work his butt. Right now judiciary is independent and makes any system move null and void.
2022 if everything is kept constant we will see
1) Ruto - Kiunjuri - Ruto will score more than 60%. Ruto is likely to start with solid 25% in rift valley alone.
2) Raila - Gema poodle - any - Raila will come 2nd with less than 20%. Most likely someone as desperate as Waiguru. or even PK.
3) Matiangi-Kagwe (or reverse) - this one will likely be the 'system' project running under Jubilee. I don't belive Raila will be trusted by GEMA elite or can be sold in GEMA (you can see games they are playing with BBI) - this one at very best will struggle to get 15% but may fly at least with some Gusii people...Nyachae got 4% there. so if they really work hard they may get 50% of GEMA - about 13% plus gusii 4% - and but they are confirmed dead elsewhere.
4) Madvd/Mutua/Kalonzo - They will score btw 2-4%.
Now the only risk I see is all of them merging to stop Ruto - but who will head the ticket. Raila nope. He already messed up with his NASA partners. Matiangi - Kagwe - are going to be arguably the most incompotent hated arrogant bunch with zero political experiences.
As you can clearly see Ruto is destined for PORK. At this point in time Ruto doesn't even need GEMA votes. The Hustler Nation is national.
And tell me how system will rig Ruto out when it's not even close.
The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.
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Fundraising is allowed until six months to election. Then it become vote bribery. If you see Ruto in 2022 doing fund-raising or giving out wheelbarrow - please keep it as evidence - so you can take it to supreme court.
The abuse of police to stop people from meeting is odius - and will make Uhuru even more unpopular - and will make Ruto movement even more popular.
Pundit and Noway - if you doubt you are delusional - explain again how voter bribery is okay but not abuse of machinery. I forgot the spin. Wheelbarrowism is basically loot distribution program.
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Yes Raila has the machinery machinery system...Jaluo kweli.
Robina and kichwa start rehearsals for babas inauguration, its not first time raira has inspected a presidential guard of honor. Shonesha suti na tai. Please don't wait
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You say KANU was anti-GEMA coalition so they rejected Uhuru. But entire Kenya was taught tribalism yet you know say it is about class. Do you not see the contradiction? If Gema will never trust Raila because of Kibaki and Uhuru propaganda - what makes Kenyans reject their tribal leaders and embrace one rich hustler? These are the same Kenyans - they cannot be conservative and reject Raila then be liberal at the same time to enbrace class. There is no basis for your arguments. Tribe is very entrenched.
Narc 2 didn't just happen because you looked for somebody here and there - and make a coalition. NARC started as Non-GEMA revolt against the choice of Uhuru by Moi. Moi had built a coalition of small tribes mostly kamatusa, somalis, coast, ukambani - basically the old ODM minus Luos. He then took in NDP. Naturally this coalition was built around anti-Kikiyuism. When Moi turned 360 and endorsed to endorse GEMA it lead to revolt. That revolt gave the country the momentum to beat Moi.
Now BBI - what will make people vote for such unpopular thing? Okay let even forget that - let talk tribal cards - who will head the ticket? Raila? GEMA elite cannot trust or sell Raila. Kalonzo will be out of such BBI. maDVD will be out of such BBi.
Tell you what we will have Raila's BBI - like I told you - compete for no 2 with Matiangi-Kagwe-gideon project - they will struggle to get 20%. Raila's BBI will have the usual - Joho, Oparanya, token gema - etc - likes of Gideon Moi and Uhuru are dyed in the wool Raila haters - trust me they will never back Raila.
If Raila really and truly wants to have some competition in 2022 - he should become a kingmaker. He comes with 15% boost for any candidate.
But will Raila at his age accept to be a kingmaker.
Okay I think the answer is clear - Ruto is the NEXT PORK baring a disaster.
5) NARC 2 aka BBI coalition headed by Raila will wipe the floor with Mobutu. Hustler nation is a lie - well except in Tangatanga echo chamber. Poor vs rich has been preached since 1992 - and all rich and poor split perfectly into tribes. This includes 2002 Big 4 tribal coalition against Kalenjin. Sonko is the only example you can tout as cohesive slum poor - but it all smoke - primary was mlolongo ukora. General elections was Jubilee vs NASA tribes. I mean your own MOAS here were "bullseye" on Sonko 53% vs 47% Kidero - based on tribal census.
In short - hustler nation is a novel concept or experiment. But it Mobutu only hope so you are dropping magic numbers 40%, 65%, 50% - without any factual basis. A proper basis would be number of Kenyans under the poverty line - which I think is 70% - and run that experiment in Msambweni.
You see Mobutu - just like his looting "hustles" - cannot make it in any fair match. He brazenly bribed voters in Kibra then cried when the favor was returned. He is now bribing voters and rich vs poor incitement - but he whines all over about police harassment. He is addicted to impunity - sadly his opponents are better equipped in it.
Power as far as we know is taken. It's not given. Only a fool goes around expecting to be given on a silver platter. It's reason Ruto has campaigned non-stop since 1997 when he entered politics.
Raila indeed was rigged out in 2007 but the rest he lost fair and square begin in 1982, 1992, 1997, 2013 and 2017. That ODM guys like you feel cynical and defeated is understandable but watch Ruto beat the so called system at the ballot box. And it won't even be close.What you call system - Ruto has been part of it - in Moi's and Uhuru's - it's very weaken now - unlike say Moi time - and yet Moi always had to work his butt. Right now judiciary is independent and makes any system move null and void.
2022 if everything is kept constant we will see
1) Ruto - Kiunjuri - Ruto will score more than 60%. Ruto is likely to start with solid 25% in rift valley alone.
2) Raila - Gema poodle - any - Raila will come 2nd with less than 20%. Most likely someone as desperate as Waiguru. or even PK.
3) Matiangi-Kagwe (or reverse) - this one will likely be the 'system' project running under Jubilee. I don't belive Raila will be trusted by GEMA elite or can be sold in GEMA (you can see games they are playing with BBI) - this one at very best will struggle to get 15% but may fly at least with some Gusii people...Nyachae got 4% there. so if they really work hard they may get 50% of GEMA - about 13% plus gusii 4% - and but they are confirmed dead elsewhere.
4) Madvd/Mutua/Kalonzo - They will score btw 2-4%.
Now the only risk I see is all of them merging to stop Ruto - but who will head the ticket. Raila nope. He already messed up with his NASA partners. Matiangi - Kagwe - are going to be arguably the most incompotent hated arrogant bunch with zero political experiences.
As you can clearly see Ruto is destined for PORK. At this point in time Ruto doesn't even need GEMA votes. The Hustler Nation is national.
And tell me how system will rig Ruto out when it's not even close.
The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.
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If you want yo talk letter of the law - fundraising is legal yes - but so is public order act. Well Havi might run to court - but the law gives police discretion to assess threat to peace. It all legal. You can keep the meeting cancellations as evidence after Mobutu dog beating if you think police are breaking the law.
Mobutu fundraisers are loot distribution - every fool knows this. Just like we know police are biased. They are both legal - I have no evidence Mobutu stole the money - you have no evidence OCS is biased. The Kenol and Buzeki violence are solid proof hustler meetings are threat to peace.
Whether you argue law or morality or integrity- you will come up short.
Fundraising is allowed until six months to election. Then it become vote bribery. If you see Ruto in 2022 doing fund-raising or giving out wheelbarrow - please keep it as evidence - so you can take it to supreme court.
The abuse of police to stop people from meeting is odius - and will make Uhuru even more unpopular - and will make Ruto movement even more popular.
Pundit and Noway - if you doubt you are delusional - explain again how voter bribery is okay but not abuse of machinery. I forgot the spin. Wheelbarrowism is basically loot distribution program.
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I have given you a whole book written by Phds on kenya ethnic politics. It not that stupid. That is why many leaders have been rejected even when offered big post. MaDVD was rejected as Mp while he was Moi Vice President for 3 months. There are many many examples. There is a nexus btw TRIBE AND TRIBAL INTERESTS. That is why most leaders have to work hard, show some development and generally be on top of community interests. The moment you pursue personal interest that are inimical to community interest - you lose the plot.
A good example no 1)Uhuru - GEMA have 1M diaspora lifes and properties on cross hair in case of fallout btw Ruto and Uhuru. That is community interest.
Uhuru maybe no longer can tolerate Ruto. That is personal interest.
Uhuru therefore for last 3yrs has really struggle to dislogde Ruto from Mt Kenya hearts and minds. His personal interest is clashing with community interest.
Example no 2) How Moi died a Lonely Man.
Understand what happened to KANU. Moi for many years had built anti-GEMA coalition - who were his main competition. There was agreement that either Kalonzo or Saitoti or Ngala or MaDVD or even Raila would nick it after Kalenjin. This was coalition btw Luhyas, Kalenjin, Kamatusa, coast and Ukambani - including Gusii. Raila came late and I don't think he was acceptable. He would have face the same revolt as Uhuru didi.
Now what Moi did - was to turn 360 and endorse a Kikuyu. That was huge betrayal of all those communities and their hopes.
It akin to what is happening in central - if Uhuru was to turn 360 and endorse Raila. It will lead to a revolt...which is already underway anyway. Uhuru/GEMA have spend a generations building anti-Raila coalition and therefore to turn 360 - and endorse Raila would be seen as ultimate betrayal of the cause.
Kikuyus are wonderng like Kalenjin if Uhuru has been be-witched or got seniled or lost his mind but I think Uhuru is playing a game here. It doesn't make sense to them.
If he insist on Raila - he will end up like Moi - derided even by his own people. Moi spend the last few years wondering what he ever did to Kalenjin for them to hate him - yet to him he had done a lot (true) for the community.
You say KANU was anti-GEMA coalition so they rejected Uhuru. But entire Kenya was taught tribalism yet you know say it is about class. Do you not see the contradiction? If Gema will never trust Raila because of Kibaki and Uhuru propaganda - what makes Kenyans reject their tribal leaders and embrace one rich hustler? These are the same Kenyans - they cannot be conservative and reject Raila then be liberal at the same time to enbrace class. There is no basis for your arguments. Tribe is very entrenched.
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Pundit is so full of crap. He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic populism. The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.
You say KANU was anti-GEMA coalition so they rejected Uhuru. But entire Kenya was taught tribalism yet you know say it is about class. Do you not see the contradiction? If Gema will never trust Raila because of Kibaki and Uhuru propaganda - what makes Kenyans reject their tribal leaders and embrace one rich hustler? These are the same Kenyans - they cannot be conservative and reject Raila then be liberal at the same time to enbrace class. There is no basis for your arguments. Tribe is very entrenched.
Narc 2 didn't just happen because you looked for somebody here and there - and make a coalition. NARC started as Non-GEMA revolt against the choice of Uhuru by Moi. Moi had built a coalition of small tribes mostly kamatusa, somalis, coast, ukambani - basically the old ODM minus Luos. He then took in NDP. Naturally this coalition was built around anti-Kikiyuism. When Moi turned 360 and endorsed to endorse GEMA it lead to revolt. That revolt gave the country the momentum to beat Moi.
Now BBI - what will make people vote for such unpopular thing? Okay let even forget that - let talk tribal cards - who will head the ticket? Raila? GEMA elite cannot trust or sell Raila. Kalonzo will be out of such BBI. maDVD will be out of such BBi.
Tell you what we will have Raila's BBI - like I told you - compete for no 2 with Matiangi-Kagwe-gideon project - they will struggle to get 20%. Raila's BBI will have the usual - Joho, Oparanya, token gema - etc - likes of Gideon Moi and Uhuru are dyed in the wool Raila haters - trust me they will never back Raila.
If Raila really and truly wants to have some competition in 2022 - he should become a kingmaker. He comes with 15% boost for any candidate.
But will Raila at his age accept to be a kingmaker.
Okay I think the answer is clear - Ruto is the NEXT PORK baring a disaster.
5) NARC 2 aka BBI coalition headed by Raila will wipe the floor with Mobutu. Hustler nation is a lie - well except in Tangatanga echo chamber. Poor vs rich has been preached since 1992 - and all rich and poor split perfectly into tribes. This includes 2002 Big 4 tribal coalition against Kalenjin. Sonko is the only example you can tout as cohesive slum poor - but it all smoke - primary was mlolongo ukora. General elections was Jubilee vs NASA tribes. I mean your own MOAS here were "bullseye" on Sonko 53% vs 47% Kidero - based on tribal census.
In short - hustler nation is a novel concept or experiment. But it Mobutu only hope so you are dropping magic numbers 40%, 65%, 50% - without any factual basis. A proper basis would be number of Kenyans under the poverty line - which I think is 70% - and run that experiment in Msambweni.
You see Mobutu - just like his looting "hustles" - cannot make it in any fair match. He brazenly bribed voters in Kibra then cried when the favor was returned. He is now bribing voters and rich vs poor incitement - but he whines all over about police harassment. He is addicted to impunity - sadly his opponents are better equipped in it.
Power as far as we know is taken. It's not given. Only a fool goes around expecting to be given on a silver platter. It's reason Ruto has campaigned non-stop since 1997 when he entered politics.
Raila indeed was rigged out in 2007 but the rest he lost fair and square begin in 1982, 1992, 1997, 2013 and 2017. That ODM guys like you feel cynical and defeated is understandable but watch Ruto beat the so called system at the ballot box. And it won't even be close.What you call system - Ruto has been part of it - in Moi's and Uhuru's - it's very weaken now - unlike say Moi time - and yet Moi always had to work his butt. Right now judiciary is independent and makes any system move null and void.
2022 if everything is kept constant we will see
1) Ruto - Kiunjuri - Ruto will score more than 60%. Ruto is likely to start with solid 25% in rift valley alone.
2) Raila - Gema poodle - any - Raila will come 2nd with less than 20%. Most likely someone as desperate as Waiguru. or even PK.
3) Matiangi-Kagwe (or reverse) - this one will likely be the 'system' project running under Jubilee. I don't belive Raila will be trusted by GEMA elite or can be sold in GEMA (you can see games they are playing with BBI) - this one at very best will struggle to get 15% but may fly at least with some Gusii people...Nyachae got 4% there. so if they really work hard they may get 50% of GEMA - about 13% plus gusii 4% - and but they are confirmed dead elsewhere.
4) Madvd/Mutua/Kalonzo - They will score btw 2-4%.
Now the only risk I see is all of them merging to stop Ruto - but who will head the ticket. Raila nope. He already messed up with his NASA partners. Matiangi - Kagwe - are going to be arguably the most incompotent hated arrogant bunch with zero political experiences.
As you can clearly see Ruto is destined for PORK. At this point in time Ruto doesn't even need GEMA votes. The Hustler Nation is national.
And tell me how system will rig Ruto out when it's not even close.
The system that rigged Raila out in 2013, 2017 is now against your friend. The only clean election Kenya has seen recently was 2002. All others have left serious questions and it is plausible Raila actually won. Pushing the narrative that somehow the dynamic duo had everything smooth, peezy izzy is outlandish.
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Tribal voting is still intact. Thank you. If you were worried. You can almost take this to the bank. Ruto will carry Kalenjin. Raila will carry Luo. You don't see me talk about those. maDVD has an edge in Maragoli. Kalonzo is struggling in Ukambani. Matiangi has an edge in Gusii. Now the big elephant is GEMA/Mt Kenya(25-30% depending on demographic realities). We just don't know how that will pan out. Suffice to say Ruto has serious support there. Uhuru and others are trying to take that support away.What we know for sure Ruto has added lot more small tribes and sub-tribes to his coalition. Raila is losing support. Ruto has found a winning momentum with Hustlers Nation to rally his tribal coalition.
Pundit is so full of crap. He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic populism. The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.
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This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig
Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila :)
Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.
Pundit is so full of crap. He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic populism. The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.
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My record speak for itself. I never delete past posts. You just struggling to accept the reality of incoming PORK.
This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig
Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila :)
Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.
Pundit is so full of crap. He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic populism. The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.
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Ok Pundit, we now get it. Ruto will win elections and Ouru will have no choice but hand over the reigns of power to the son of Surgoi so that Ruto can finish the Kenyattaa dynasty once and for all. Keep on sucking your thumb.
My record speak for itself. I never delete past posts. You just struggling to accept the reality of incoming PORK.
This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig
Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila :)
Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.
Pundit is so full of crap. He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic populism. The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.
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Ok Pundit, we now get it. Ruto will win elections and Ouru will have no choice but hand over the reigns of power to the son of Surgoi so that Ruto can finish the Kenyattaa dynasty once and for all. Keep on sucking your thumb.
My record speak for itself. I never delete past posts. You just struggling to accept the reality of incoming PORK.
This is shamba la wanyama - Pundit amended the tribal constitution at wee hours - like Mcheshi the pig
Tribal interest = backing Mobutu
Personal interest = backing Raila :)
Pundit even has a magic 65% support for Mobutu. No excel sheet or tribal census is needed this time. Amazingly they cannot take on Uhuru even in MCA contest in Central - they are waiting for him to be lameduck in 2021.
Pundit is so full of crap. He spent the last five years lecturing us about tribal voting then now when tribe does not favor Ruto, he is telling us that Ruto's is going to ride to power on his wheelbarrownomic populism. The worst part of his hypocrisy is to act as if 2002 was not an anomaly when power was passed from the ruling party to an opposition. Pundits are like the rats who celebrated the idea of belling the cat as brilliant just to realize that belling the cat was impossible.
Uhuru and Ruto have been in the same camp save for 3 months in 2017.This is a fact
Second fact Uhuru and Ruto fell out because of BBI . Ruto saw it a s calculated move to divide Jubilee and revive Railas 2022 .
Fact number three Uhuru went to negotiations alone same did Raila. If they were unselfish they would have gone with their running mates.
Fact Number 4 , No one apart from Uhuru and Raila knows what was negotiated which leads to fact number 5 the handshake has made the Govnt more corrupt and kenyans much more poorer.
Fact number 6 .Ruto adores Uhuru if it was someone else he would have made Uhurus life difficult
Fact number 7 Ruto is the leading presidential candidate as we speak.
Fact number 8 .Uhuru will handover power to Ruto and Ruto will not go after Kenyattas dynasty , aame as happened with Moi and Kibaki. The rulimg class know how to take care of theirs.