Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nowayhaha on September 08, 2020, 09:14:48 AM
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Kalenjin form a substantial number of population though in minority in the following counties , NAROK, TRANSZOIA, BUNGOMA & NAKURU what is their population respectively .
Just going through Kalenjin ethnonationalism and trying to figure out how the New Constitution & New politics post 2002-2007 era has impacted it .
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/31406272_Ethnic_Violence_and_the_Prospects_for_Democracy_in_the_Aftermath_of_the_2007_Kenyan_Elections
The fifth type of conflict in the crisis of the postelection period, and the most ominous for the future of Kenya, was marked by a resurgent Kalenjin ethno-nationalism that motivated a renewed campaign of ethnic cleansing of Kikuyus by Kalenjins in the Rift Valley. This violence caused the highest number of deaths and displacements and now poses the greatest long-term risk to the stability of the state. In the Rift Valley, the stolen election was a pretext to drive Kikuyu “settlers” from areas of the Rift Valley deemed to belong to “the Kalenjin,” a struggle that has deep historical roots. White farmers in the colonial era typically imported Kikuyu farmworkers, many of whom in the independence era remained (though many were expelled in the Mau Mau Emergency of the 1950s).
In the postindependence era, tens of thousands of landless Kikuyu were resettled on ex-settler properties in the Rift Valley. In 1991, with the dawn of “multiparty democracy,” Kalenjin politicians in the Rift Valley orchestrated clashes to secure
the power of then president Moi.Supporters of the ruling party, the Kenya Afri-can National Union (KANU), led by politicians in Moi’s inner circle, worried that opposition parties were attracting strong support from the Kikuyu. They organized squads of young men to attack Kikuyu residents in the Rift Valley, particularly around the towns of Eldoret and Molo, to drive out potential opposi-tion voters and intimidate those who remained. Their strategy, by all accounts supported by the president himself, was successful. Moi won himself ten more years as president by means of “clashes” such as these (though he also bribed vot-ers and officials, repressed dissenters, and rigged his way through elections). At each election since 1992 —1997, 2002, and 2007 — ethnic clashes have occurred in the Rift Valley.11 In each instance the primary perpetrators were people calling themselves “Kalenjin,” and the principal victims were Kikuyu, although many innocent Kalenjin were also targets of retaliatory killings.Yet while there is a surface similarity to the recurring ethnic conflicts sur-rounding elections in the Rift Valley, the 2008 conflicts differed from earlier clashes in crucial respects. Unlike previous episodes of ethnic violence in the Rift Valley, the mobilization of fighters in 2008 was not organized solely by politi-cal leaders seeking to manipulate the ethnic logic of electoral politics to retain power.
Rather, the emerging Kalenjin political leadership, while perhaps instigat-ing some violent clashes, took advantage of the widespread attacks on Kikuyus in the region, which arose more or less spontaneously with mostly local and unco-ordinated mobilization, and the resulting retaliations against Kalenjin to secure their positions as spokespersons for the Kalenjin.12 The 2007 election marks a changing of the guard in Kalenjin leadersip. Electors comprehensively repudiated former president Moi and his family. Moi had been the central figure in Kalenjin life for more than a half century. Indeed, the very existence of “the Kalenjin” as a plausible ethnic category may owe more to Moi than to anyone else.13 Shortly before the election, Moi came out in support of Kibaki. The general response among Kalenjin voters, however, was derision.
Many people assumed Moi had made a deal with Kibaki to secure immunity for himself in corruption cases that the opposition might be expected to prosecute if they gained office.In 2007, for the first time since Moi gained the vice presidency after indepen-dence, the Kalenjin as a community entered the elections feeling excluded from the inner sanctums of the state. For some years prior to the elections, Kalenjin nation-alism was marked by a collective ressentiment directed primarily at Kikuyu but expressed in frustration at Moi. During his years in office Moi perfected the prac-tice of patrimonial ethnic politics initiated by his predecessor, Jomo Kenyatta.14 When Moi was forced from office in 2002, however, and his chosen successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, was defeated in the polls, his former supporters began not only to resent being excluded from the main sources of patronage opportunities but also to critically reassess the spoils that they had received when “Uncle Dan” was in office. A consensus emerged that Moi had dispensed favors primarily to a select group of cronies, while benefiting to an unfair degree the Tugen “subtribe” of the Kalenjin at the expense of other groups, particularly the larger Nandi group. He was also seen to have continued aiding Kikuyus at Kalenjin expense.Rather than follow the instructions of their former leader and deliver their votes to Kibaki, Kalenjin districts voted overwhelmingly for the opposition.
Two of Moi’s sons were also humiliated in their election attempts. In the postelection violence, locals took the opportunity to burn some of Moi’s properties and those of their impoverished Kikuyu neighbors. The most notable Kalenjin leader is now William Ruto, allied to ODM leader Odinga. Although he is seen in some quar-ters as a violence-inciting warlord, Ruto claims the mantle of Kalenjin leadership because he delivered their votes for the ODM. As the Kalenjin lawyer and colum-nist Donald Kipkorir pronounced in April 2008: “In unanimity, Kalenjins have chosen Mr Ruto their leader, and on their behalf will he sit at the nation-state table to represent their interests.”15 In the negotiations leading to the “grand coalition” government, Ruto was backed by the implicit threat that his community, if left dissatisfied, would resume its violent struggles.In March 2008 I traveled to the Rift Valley district of Nakuru with a colleague to visit my in-laws and to report on the aftermath of the violence.16 On the way to Nakuru we stopped outside Gilgil at the farm of J. M. Kariuki, the socialist politi-cian assassinated in 1975 after falling out with President Kenyatta. Thirty Kalen-jin families, who had lived on the property for generations, since before Kariuki bought it from a white farmer at independence, had been burned out and chased away by Kikuyus in revenge for attacks on Kikuyus farther north.
The houses had been small structures of mud and thatch. Nothing remained but scorched ground. The locals we met expressed sorrow at the plight of their neighbors and insisted that the perpetrators came from far away. Later that day we toured farms in the Rongai district outside Nakuru where Kikuyu homes had been burned. Some mud walls remained standing; everything that could be stolen or burned was gone. Thousands of Kikuyu had also been displaced from their homes in the surround-ing countryside and were living in refugee camps in the Nakuru Agricultural Showgrounds and the stadium.None of the Kalenjins we spoke with in the Rift Valley evinced any sympathy for his or her missing neighbors. During my previous visit, in the northern sum-mer of 2007, relations between the two groups in the district had not seemed particularly troubled.
Indeed, my Kalenjin in-laws were not alone in having close friends, lovers, and co-parents from the Kikuyu community. On my visit in March, however, I found the ruined houses of people I had thought of as family friends along with those of many other neighbors. The consensus after the 2007 election was that Kikuyu did not belong in this part of the world. “This is Kalenjin territory,” was a steady refrain. One woman insisted to us that the Kikuyu actu-ally belonged in Congo, whence they had been imported by white farmers in the days of colonialism
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That is tragic - One woman insisted to us that the Kikuyu actu-ally belonged in Congo, whence they had been imported by white farmers in the days of colonialism
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For tribal census as of 2009 look at MOASS.
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For tribal census as of 2009 look at MOASS.
Share the 2019 Upadated one , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available
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Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.
Share the 2019 Upadated one , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available
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Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.
Share the 2019 Upadated one , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available
From 2009 Census with the data yoiu have provided , with old politics and old constitution , They formed
TransNzoia - 30%
Narok -35%
Nakuru -37 %
Bungoma 12%
Im surprised that In Uasin Ngishu they formed 58 %
It would be really interesting to see how it looks like now 10 years later .
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Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.
Share the 2019 Upadated one , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available
So those are your figures where are the KNBS figures?
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If you check those figures are precise - I did a lot of research - most of them are accurate. Which one do you dispute.
So those are your figures where are the KNBS figures?
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Kalenjin are settled in nearly all RV counties save for 3 - Samburu and Turkana - well Kajiado and Nairobi - And Machakos - some of us represent in Mavoko :) - plus Bungoma.
So it's no longer the small tribe you thought - 6.5m people.
Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.
Share the 2019 Upadated one , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available
From 2009 Census with the data yoiu have provided , with old politics and old constitution , They formed
TransNzoia - 30%
Narok -35%
Nakuru -37 %
Bungoma 12%
Im surprised that In Uasin Ngishu they formed 58 %
It would be really interesting to see how it looks like now 10 years later .
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So what do you want us to conclude? Even Somalis are found everywhere in Kenya today.
Kalenjin are settled in nearly all RV counties save for 3 - Samburu and Turkana - well Kajiado and Nairobi - And Machakos - some of us represent in Mavoko :) - plus Bungoma.
So it's no longer the small tribe you thought - 6.5m people.
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Kalenjin are settled in nearly all RV counties save for 3 - Samburu and Turkana - well Kajiado and Nairobi - And Machakos - some of us represent in Mavoko :) - plus Bungoma.
So it's no longer the small tribe you thought - 6.5m people.
Not seen 2019 granular tribal breakdown yet but as of 2009 - the figures I got from research was like this.
Share the 2019 Upadated one , Have been trying to look for it in www.knbs.or.ke . Not readily available
From 2009 Census with the data yoiu have provided , with old politics and old constitution , They formed
TransNzoia - 30%
Narok -35%
Nakuru -37 %
Bungoma 12%
Im surprised that In Uasin Ngishu they formed 58 %
It would be really interesting to see how it looks like now 10 years later .
Exactly my point when provinces as defined in the precious constituion mattered Kalenjins appeared a force to reckon and used the province as a the basis of ethnonationalism.
With the introduction of the new constitution, its very evident that Kalenjin are only a majority in the following counties 5 only
Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet,,Nandi, Bomet ans Kericho
They are a minority on Uasin Ngishu,Nakuru, Narok and Transnzoia
Insignificant numbers in kajiado , Samaburu Turkana and Laikipia
Do pokots even regard themselves as Kalenjin ?
Now with the new constitution and Gorvernors office holding alot of sway in matrers counties any war will lead to the minority tribe getting affected from resource wise , mobilization and organization, logistics etc
It just baffles me why you think a war will give you an advantage in matters politcs
The battle ground is different now in comparison to 2007.
If a war was to erupt now God forbid, all communities in former Rift Valley will be affected but Kalenjin will be the most affected
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Kalenjin dominate in 7 counties.
They are major players in 3 more - Nakuru, Tranzoia and Narok.
They are some little force in Bungoma - and have insignificant numbers elsewhere.
Now why would Kalenjin fight. LAND LAND LAND. There is already serious population explosion and youth unemployment.
Kalenjin lay an historical claim to land from Tranzoia to Naviasha.
Any war provide them opportunity to kick out "foreigners" - and occupy the land.
The foreigners after being kicked will come back and sell their land cheaply - if they ever comeback.
So there is incentive for those in Tranzoia and sorrounding counties to star war there - for those in Uasing Gishu and sorrounding - and for those in Nakuru and areas.
So beyond the politics - the foreigners owning land in RV is seen as another Mau - a frontier for the landless.
Even in places where land was sold genuinely like in Sondu or Nandi - Kalenjin will stick kick out foreigners on any pretext.
They are just waiting for opportunity. You give them the opportunity - and they do it.
Exactly my point when provinces as defined in the precious constituion mattered Kalenjins appeared a force to reckon and used the province as a the basis of ethnonationalism.
With the introduction of the new constitution, its very evident that Kalenjin are only a majority in the following counties 5 only
Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet,,Nandi, Bomet ans Kericho
They are a minority on Uasin Ngishu,Nakuru, Narok and Transnzoia
Insignificant numbers in kajiado , Samaburu Turkana and Laikipia
Do pokots even regard themselves as Kalenjin ?
Now with the new constitution and Gorvernors office holding alot of sway in matrers counties any war will lead to the minority tribe getting affected from resource wise , mobilization and organization, logistics etc
It just baffles me why you think a war will give you an advantage in matters politcs
The battle ground is different now in comparison to 2007.
If a war was to erupt now God forbid, all communities in former Rift Valley will be affected but Kalenjin will be the most affected
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Chunga sana. The "foreigners" will also reclaim Weston Hotel. :D :D :D
Strange reasoning that hinges on desperation and ignorance.
Kalenjin dominate in 7 counties.
They are major players in 3 more - Nakuru, Tranzoia and Narok.
They are some little force in Bungoma - and have insignificant numbers elsewhere.
Now why would Kalenjin fight. LAND LAND LAND. There is already serious population explosion and youth unemployment.
Kalenjin lay an historical claim to land from Tranzoia to Naviasha.
Any war provide them opportunity to kick out "foreigners" - and occupy the land.
The foreigners after being kicked will come back and sell their land cheaply - if they ever comeback.
So there is incentive for those in Tranzoia and sorrounding counties to star war there - for those in Uasing Gishu and sorrounding - and for those in Nakuru and areas.
So beyond the politics - the foreigners owning land in RV is seen as another Mau - a frontier for the landless.
Even in places where land was sold genuinely like in Sondu or Nandi - Kalenjin will stick kick out foreigners on any pretext.
They are just waiting for opportunity. You give them the opportunity - and they do it.
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Yes some of us will suffer - the revenge attacks. I have stopped investing in Mavoko. If Uhuru light the fire - it will consume many people - because Kalenjin are waiting for an opportunity - I don't think they have accepted or welcomed any "foreigner" in their land. Don't invest in many parts of RV - unless you're risking.
Chunga sana. The "foreigners" will also reclaim Weston Hotel. :D :D :D
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If you check those figures are precise - I did a lot of research - most of them are accurate. Which one do you dispute.
So those are your figures where are the KNBS figures?
Pundit take a break, do you know what precise means? You are suffering from strong hold mentality which is very lethal.
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Kalenjin dominate in 7 counties.
They are major players in 3 more - Nakuru, Tranzoia and Narok.
They are some little force in Bungoma - and have insignificant numbers elsewhere.
Now why would Kalenjin fight. LAND LAND LAND. There is already serious population explosion and youth unemployment.
Kalenjin lay an historical claim to land from Tranzoia to Naviasha.
Any war provide them opportunity to kick out "foreigners" - and occupy the land.
The foreigners after being kicked will come back and sell their land cheaply - if they ever comeback.
So there is incentive for those in Tranzoia and sorrounding counties to star war there - for those in Uasing Gishu and sorrounding - and for those in Nakuru and areas.
So beyond the politics - the foreigners owning land in RV is seen as another Mau - a frontier for the landless.
Even in places where land was sold genuinely like in Sondu or Nandi - Kalenjin will stick kick out foreigners on any pretext.
They are just waiting for opportunity. You give them the opportunity - and they do it.
Exactly my point when provinces as defined in the precious constituion mattered Kalenjins appeared a force to reckon and used the province as a the basis of ethnonationalism.
With the introduction of the new constitution, its very evident that Kalenjin are only a majority in the following counties 5 only
Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet,,Nandi, Bomet ans Kericho
They are a minority on Uasin Ngishu,Nakuru, Narok and Transnzoia
Insignificant numbers in kajiado , Samaburu Turkana and Laikipia
Do pokots even regard themselves as Kalenjin ?
Now with the new constitution and Gorvernors office holding alot of sway in matrers counties any war will lead to the minority tribe getting affected from resource wise , mobilization and organization, logistics etc
It just baffles me why you think a war will give you an advantage in matters politcs
The battle ground is different now in comparison to 2007.
If a war was to erupt now God forbid, all communities in former Rift Valley will be affected but Kalenjin will be the most affected
RV, your mindset is so in the 90s and have refused adapt to the new dispenstation.
First what make you think population outburst and land issue has only affected Kalenjins.
Secondly what makes you think Kalenjins hold monopoly to violence.
Furrhermore as indicated earlier politcs are different now in comparison to 90s and 2007 when Maasais and Luhyas the other players were on the same poltical formation with Kalenjin
From the data you provided (still looking for the most current and correct ) , you are in the 30% in Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia thats a minority and can be equated to what you are calling "Foreigners"
A war always affects the minorities more than anyone else , you seem not to see this , your analysis on Naivasha and TransNzoia is Misguided.
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I put in a lot of reasearch - and use this on MOASS - it was so accurate Patel accuses me of being part of the DEEP STATE :)
Pundit take a break, do you know what precise means? You are suffering from strong hold mentality which is very lethal.
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Don't personalize. I don't agree with majority of Kalenjin mindset.
But i am being dissapasionate and telling you the truth like I have always done.
Kalenjin minority in Narok are already getting kicked - I and many predicted this would happen.
This is just the nature of the beast.
Maasai are in position where they are getting alarmed - so Narok just prepare for many wars and bloodsheed.
When I predict something - It's based on my knolwedge and anlysis - it's not what I think.
If I was thinking like that - I wouldn't have married a GEMA woman and got kids with.
Let hope for the best - but definitely Uhuru-Ruto fallout is VERY BAD NEWS.
Kalenjin are almost fanatically backing Ruto -
If they miss PORK - they will not miss "land grievances" after "rigging allegation"
They will not take betrayal by GEMA lightly.
That I know because I know their thinking.
It's like predicting how Luos will react.
The problem I see with our people now is youth unemployment, their inability to do usual urban migration like western kenya ( I read some statistics that had 40% of Bungoma men out of county). In 1992 - maybe you needed to import warriors - now - everywhere in RV - kalenjin have so many idle youths - you can eaisly get a million fighting force.
Now add that youth unemployment to Ruto politics- and you wake up the land grievance monster of Jomo Kenyatta - and you have a civil war in your hand.
Uhuru has to understand this very very clearly - and they need to know if they go man to man with Ruto - it will be tragic. A lot of people will die. Millions more will suffer.
This is MAD - both sides will lose heavily - there will be no winner.
RV, your mindset is so in the 90s and have refused adapt to the new dispenstation.
First what make you think population outburst and land issue has only affected Kalenjins.
Secondly what makes you think Kalenjins hold monopoly to violence.
Furrhermore as indicated earlier politcs are different now in comparison to 90s and 2007 when Maasais and Luhyas the other players were on the same poltical formation with Kalenjin
From the data you provided (still looking for the most current and correct ) , you are in the 30% in Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia thats a minority and can be equated to what you are calling "Foreigners"
A war always affects the minorities more than anyone else , you seem not to see this , your analysis on Naivasha and TransNzoia is Misguided.
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Kalenjins even if ruto becomes presiddnt have deep societal issues that no one but themselves can address. They think that the days of moi absolute power will return. They won't and the more they make rv unattractive from investors the more they will suffer. In 30 years kalenjins will be back to storage era like those Marsabit terrorists. Those marsabit terrorists target any non Muslim teaching there and then complain that they have no teachers. I know a lot of highly skilled guys who used to work there but have left. I see kalenjins suffering the same fate. May be pokots will finally decide to drive you out of kenya
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Kalenjins even if ruto becomes presiddnt have deep societal issues that no one but themselves can address. They think that the days of moi absolute power will return. They won't and the more they make rv unattractive from investors the more they will suffer. In 30 years kalenjins will be back to storage era like those Marsabit terrorists. Those marsabit terrorists target any non Muslim teaching there and then complain that they have no teachers. I know a lot of highly skilled guys who used to work there but have left. I see kalenjins suffering the same fate. May be pokots will finally decide to drive you out of kenya
That you know is nonsense. THIS IS LEADERSHIP FAILURE. FAILURE TO MANAGE POLITICS. Kalenjin are very progressive, good farmers, investing in education n name it.The problem is uhuru like it was Kibaki in 2007.You need to understand Kenyans and their issues..and manage it.You reopened old wounds and engage in ego fight, provoke a civil war like most of Africa then blame others.The problem is leadership.Uhuru n Ruto should now let Raila run the Kenya shop before they set us back to mayhem .The more they fight the more they set the country ablaze...Uhuru should have known he was signing a pact with a devil and he should see it through..then retire to Gatundu or at least pretend like cares.Otherwise unless Raila wins...it may be an epic fight..and if our army split...we are kaput.The police cannot control million angry people. MOST COUNTRIES THAT WENT SOUTH STARTED FROM LEADERSHIP WRANGLE FUELED BY GIGANTIC EGOS and slowly sucked everyone in.
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Why are kalenjins so invested in presidency like this. It is like a do or die affair. I believe deep down with or without power kalenjins want kikuyus out of their areas. As you stated kales will use uhuru grievance to settle scores with kikuyus over land. The fact that threats are already out in the open point to bigger social problem that you guys have with kikuyus. Uhuru should honor his deal with the devils and leave power.
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Why are kalenjins so invested in presidency like this. It is like a do or die affair. I believe deep down with or without power kalenjins want kikuyus out of their areas. As you stated kales will use uhuru grievance to settle scores with kikuyus over land. The fact that threats are already out in the open point to bigger social problem that you guys have with kikuyus. Uhuru should honor his deal with the devils and leave power.
They have tasted the nectar, and are hooked now. 24 years of Moi dictatorship has conditioned them to see the presidency as their birthright. They can't make money outside of government because they are not good businessmen so they need to control the executive in order to loot public coffers, GEMA at least will go for tenders and such but this guys will straight up loot the Central Bank. Presidency also means they can resettle Mau forest leading to an ecological collapse from which this country will never recover.
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AD
That is correct. All this noise is about them getting back to practice absolute power and loot the state like they did last time. Then on their way out they will displace the foreigners in their lands. It is simple selfish play. A very myopic way of solving economic and social problems. They think the days of them controlling all govt enterprises and agencies is about to come back. For kikuyus the idiots need to vote for these miserable pricks they made a deal with such a dishonorable group of people. I cannot really in the life of me understand how a community can sit down and target others like that and still feel good about themselves. Uhuru was fucking moron to run for presidency now he got a real mess 5 deal with. No matter what he does kikuyus in rv will be dispaced ..
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AD
That is correct. All this noise is about them getting back to practice absolute power and loot the state like they did last time. Then on their way out they will displace the foreigners in their lands. It is simple selfish play. A very myopic way of solving economic and social problems. They think the days of them controlling all govt enterprises and agencies is about to come back. For kikuyus the idiots need to vote for these miserable pricks they made a deal with such a dishonorable group of people. I cannot really in the life of me understand how a community can sit down and target others like that and still feel good about themselves. Uhuru was fucking moron to run for presidency now he got a real mess 5 deal with. No matter what he does kikuyus in rv will be dispaced.
Just deserts for Kikuyu treachery and snake like behavior over the decades, they shaft everyone whenever they get chance now let them deal with their own hostage situation. Kale warriors licking their chops to hunt those mf's down without mercy. I don't think RV is bluffing, something is in the air. May be we need a real genocide to rearrange the decks once and for all. Partition the country afterwards.
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We didn't hear you complain in 2007 when you were beneficiary of such violence? That only time you got into power. Kenyans if they cannot agree - will soon have to divorce - through a painful process. And only way to avoid that is to really devolve or even adopt federal system of gov - with each tribe - basically running their own affairs.
And we have see Luo counties :) - run their affairs - pretty impressive if you ask me - in their mediocrity. At least Kakamega or Bungoma - under Lusaka and Oparanya - I could see devolution working - Siaya - Kisumu - name them nothing.
Just deserts for Kikuyu treachery and snake like behavior over the decades, they shaft everyone whenever they get chance now let them deal with their own hostage situation. Kale warriors licking their chops to hunt those mf's down without mercy. I don't think RV is bluffing, something is in the air. May be we need a real genocide to rearrange the decks once and for all. Partition the country afterwards.
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My issue with your view is equating Kalejin problems to Kenyan problems. Kenyans have moved on. The problems of RV will affect Kenya, but will not bring Kenya down. Ruto does not have the birthright to the presidency. Kalejins have to live with the fact that he may not become president in 2022.
We didn't hear you complain in 2007 when you were beneficiary of such violence? That only time you got into power. Kenyans if they cannot agree - will soon have to divorce - through a painful process. And only way to avoid that is to really devolve or even adopt federal system of gov - with each tribe - basically running their own affairs.
And we have see Luo counties :) - run their affairs - pretty impressive if you ask me - in their mediocrity. At least Kakamega or Bungoma - under Lusaka and Oparanya - I could see devolution working - Siaya - Kisumu - name them nothing.
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Don't personalize. I don't agree with majority of Kalenjin mindset.
But i am being dissapasionate and telling you the truth like I have always done.
Kalenjin minority in Narok are already getting kicked - I and many predicted this would happen.
This is just the nature of the beast.
Maasai are in position where they are getting alarmed - so Narok just prepare for many wars and bloodsheed.
When I predict something - It's based on my knolwedge and anlysis - it's not what I think.
If I was thinking like that - I wouldn't have married a GEMA woman and got kids with.
Let hope for the best - but definitely Uhuru-Ruto fallout is VERY BAD NEWS.
Kalenjin are almost fanatically backing Ruto -
If they miss PORK - they will not miss "land grievances" after "rigging allegation"
They will not take betrayal by GEMA lightly.
That I know because I know their thinking.
It's like predicting how Luos will react.
The problem I see with our people now is youth unemployment, their inability to do usual urban migration like western kenya ( I read some statistics that had 40% of Bungoma men out of county). In 1992 - maybe you needed to import warriors - now - everywhere in RV - kalenjin have so many idle youths - you can eaisly get a million fighting force.
Now add that youth unemployment to Ruto politics- and you wake up the land grievance monster of Jomo Kenyatta - and you have a civil war in your hand.
Uhuru has to understand this very very clearly - and they need to know if they go man to man with Ruto - it will be tragic. A lot of people will die. Millions more will suffer.
This is MAD - both sides will lose heavily - there will be no winner.
RV, your mindset is so in the 90s and have refused adapt to the new dispenstation.
First what make you think population outburst and land issue has only affected Kalenjins.
Secondly what makes you think Kalenjins hold monopoly to violence.
Furrhermore as indicated earlier politcs are different now in comparison to 90s and 2007 when Maasais and Luhyas the other players were on the same poltical formation with Kalenjin
From the data you provided (still looking for the most current and correct ) , you are in the 30% in Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia thats a minority and can be equated to what you are calling "Foreigners"
A war always affects the minorities more than anyone else , you seem not to see this , your analysis on Naivasha and TransNzoia is Misguided.
So RV, in 2007-2008 you managed to remove en mass Kikuyus from the most 5 populous Kalenjin counties and including Uasin Ngishu , Majority relocated and settled in Nakuru county . So incase of violence in 2022 who will you evict (there is a small Kikuyu population around eldoret ) .This is what you are not seeing . You claimed to have data on population census tribe wise in Kalenjin counties - table them you will realize Kikuyu population is close to asymptotic. However in the counties there are counties where Kalenjins are a significant minority -This is the area which will be hard hit .Mass population eviction will happen in times of war .
Raila is setting stage for that - If you cant clearly see , Raila is trying to use the 41 vs 1 strategy against Ruto and Kalenjin , In 2007 Kibaki and his Mt Kenya Mafia and majority of Gema didnt see this , they only realized it once Luhya was gone even with Awori being Kibakis VP , and Kamba gone when Ngilu abandoned Kibaki and ran away with NARC party .
This s Railas plan , deny Ruto vying with Jubilee and turn Gema against Ruto by using Violence rhetoric .
Luckily Ruto knows what is happening and Ruto knows they cant afford to go that route .
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Why are kalenjins so invested in presidency like this. It is like a do or die affair. I believe deep down with or without power kalenjins want kikuyus out of their areas. As you stated kales will use uhuru grievance to settle scores with kikuyus over land. The fact that threats are already out in the open point to bigger social problem that you guys have with kikuyus. Uhuru should honor his deal with the devils and leave power.
People act as if we are in the 90,s apart from Uasin Ngishu(areas around Eldoret Town) name other areas in Kalenjin dominated areas where Kikuyu live ?
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Kalenjin are 7m with arrows in a country of 50m. You're kidding yourself if you think country can move forward. In most countries it's normally a conflict btw a small section that bring down the entire nation.
My issue with your view is equating Kalejin problems to Kenyan problems. Kenyans have moved on. The problems of RV will affect Kenya, but will not bring Kenya down. Ruto does not have the birthright to the presidency. Kalejins have to live with the fact that he may not become president in 2022.
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I have already said this - most kikuyus will self-evict long before - and as of today - I can tell many of them are probably bailing out. They know the drill. They know how it starts. The guys like Kadudu's Luhyas are the one that could be found napping in a false sense of security.
This is Uhuru legacy - the next 2yrs - folks will be evicting themselves - long before any war. Everyone with a brain can see 2007 slowly forming.
As for Raila - and RV - I don't think Kalenjin care - in 92 and during MOI era they were hated - but they are 'warlike' - and for them - their only fear is police or army - not other tribes. Youll not hear Kalenjin crying for police to protect them. They trust in their own self-defense.
So RV, in 2007-2008 you managed to remove en mass Kikuyus from the most 5 populous Kalenjin counties and including Uasin Ngishu , Majority relocated and settled in Nakuru county . So incase of violence in 2022 who will you evict (there is a small Kikuyu population around eldoret ) .This is what you are not seeing . You claimed to have data on population census tribe wise in Kalenjin counties - table them you will realize Kikuyu population is close to asymptotic. However in the counties there are counties where Kalenjins are a significant minority -This is the area which will be hard hit .Mass population eviction will happen in times of war .
Raila is setting stage for that - If you cant clearly see , Raila is trying to use the 41 vs 1 strategy against Ruto and Kalenjin , In 2007 Kibaki and his Mt Kenya Mafia and majority of Gema didnt see this , they only realized it once Luhya was gone even with Awori being Kibakis VP , and Kamba gone when Ngilu abandoned Kibaki and ran away with NARC party .
This s Railas plan , deny Ruto vying with Jubilee and turn Gema against Ruto by using Violence rhetoric .
Luckily Ruto knows what is happening and Ruto knows they cant afford to go that route .
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Kalenjin are 7m with arrows in a country of 50m. You're kidding yourself if you think country can move forward. In most countries it's normally a conflict btw a small section that bring down the entire nation.
My issue with your view is equating Kalejin problems to Kenyan problems. Kenyans have moved on. The problems of RV will affect Kenya, but will not bring Kenya down. Ruto does not have the birthright to the presidency. Kalejins have to live with the fact that he may not become president in 2022.
Kadudu has a point. Pundit stop being emotional you are losing it, you now suffering from stronghold mentality which made luos very depressed over the decades, any conflict in rift valley will be only concentrated there in Kakenjin counties not more than 5 counties at the most, Turkanas, Samburu, Masaai even pokots wouldn't participate, Uhuru will be at liberty to easily exterminate that conflict with the blessings of ither kabilas and international support. Be careful what you wish for, Kalenjin mighy end up exterminated.
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I actually wish for peace. I am a patriotic kenyan. I love kenya. But I can see war coming if current trajectory continues. Somalia is not exceptional.
Kadudu has a point. Pundit stop being emotional you are losing it, you now suffering from stronghold mentality which made luos very depressed over the decades, any conflict in rift valley will be only concentrated there in Kakenjin counties not more than 5 counties at the most, Turkanas, Samburu, Masaai even pokots wouldn't participate, Uhuru will be at liberty to easily exterminate that conflict with the blessings of ither kabilas and international support. Be careful what you wish for, Kalenjin mighy end up exterminated.
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Kalenjin are 7m with arrows in a country of 50m. You're kidding yourself if you think country can move forward. In most countries it's normally a conflict btw a small section that bring down the entire nation.
My issue with your view is equating Kalejin problems to Kenyan problems. Kenyans have moved on. The problems of RV will affect Kenya, but will not bring Kenya down. Ruto does not have the birthright to the presidency. Kalejins have to live with the fact that he may not become president in 2022.
Kadudu has a point. Pundit stop being emotional you are losing it, you now suffering from stronghold mentality which made luos very depressed over the decades, any conflict in rift valley will be only concentrated there in Kakenjin counties not more than 5 counties at the most, Turkanas, Samburu, Masaai even pokots wouldn't participate, Uhuru will be at liberty to easily exterminate that conflict with the blessings of ither kabilas and international support. Be careful what you wish for, Kalenjin mighy end up exterminated.
The truth is incase of any war(God Forbid) , mass evictions of the minority (in this case Kalenjin) will happen in the following counties Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia -The result is this will add more pressure on resources to accommodate them in the Kalenjin dominated counties of Elegeyo Marakwet ,Kericho, Nandi , Baringo and Bomet . In 2022 Kalenjin in the dominated counties will not have Kikuyus as leverage , they already migrated as a result of 2007 P.E.V. only Luhas and a few Kissiis are left there .
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Nowayaha, you're a ignorant, kalenjin warriors from home counties move en masse to cause chaos in nakuru to mt Elgon.I am talking thousands of warriors..upon a war cry.Kikuyu you can assemble a few mungiki but you have no such war infrastructure .Majority of those fighting in molo you may discover are from transmara.They pay themselves by stealing cattle, bicycle or whatever they can find as they evict n maim.In my home which on entry to mau in bomet..after a war cry..the following morning without fail..cattle business men will assemble..waiting to buy prized cows for cheap..the dogs of war sell and go back.They repeat until war is over.The only way to stop is not start..otherwise once kalenjin wide war cry is sounded things will be elephant for Kenya .Immediately a war cry is sounded, kalenjin warriors, change their attire, get weapons, move to assembly point, then village division move to location till it becomes county.Every clan know their war division n every village has their regiments.
Kalenjin military infrastructure is a work of art. If it wasn't for it destruction - most countries ought to borrow from it. I first saw it in 1992. A war cry - I had never heard of it before was sounded - women were trained then (during circumcision) - so I heard this funny wailing - attack molo 3 times - then it stops - the next village picks it attack molo 3 times - and it stops - the next village. We were in school - and an assembly was called and we were dismissed immediately - and but we were boarding - so while still preparing to find transport home - within 1hr - the school compound had turned into an assembly of warriors - and they kept coming - by 4pm - it was large multitude..Then they are arranged into war divisions and regiments with commanders. This is based on clans. They are 4 war regiments. Then they filled into Mau forest and went for Molo.
You can imagine that war cry that started in Molo reached Transmara - and in less than 4hrs - a transmara man was in Nakuru - ready to attack.
This why Kalenjin were only community in east africa to live spare - one hut in one ridge- the rest lived in manyattas and villages that were heavily fortified. Kalenjin knows as long as a war cry is sound - help will be on way very fast.
Now there are many classes of war cry - there are those a village can respond to - they are those a location will - and they are those the entire community is called.
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No pundit things will only be elephant in 5 Kalenjin dominated counties. The aftermath mbaluhya mogusii will take over your land and whatever is left they will run down your women and take them by force imagine kadudu taking over your homestead in bomet and taking all your female relatives as spoils while you in Uganda cooling off your scared ass. Think carefully. Kikuyu will all fall back to nakuru and there no warrior can dare step even in molo, kikuyu are deadly as warriors, once they take oathing muuma you guys are done. We other kabilas will be watching silently just like 2007,NEP, Meruland business was as usual we just saw it on tv.
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You should ask them baluhya or gusii or luos. They know Kalenjin very very well. You're new in the territory. All they do is to hope to defend themselves - but attack kalenjin - that would be unheard of.
Even little Sabaot of Bungoma - kick Luhya arse so hard - and yet they are 10%.
During Nandi resistance - Not even Maasai offered themselves to show the Brits the road inside Nandi - leave alone accepting to fight as mercenaries. Not even with heavy bribes of cattle. The few Maasai who accepted lied to British and directed them elsewhere.
That is why British had to import sudanase and buganda. That is why Nubians are in kenya.
Kalenjin to suffer are my type in mavoko. Hapo itabidi nimetoka mbio.
No pundit things will only be elephant in 5 Kalenjin dominated counties. The aftermath mbaluhya mogusii will take over your land and whatever is left they will run down your women and take them by force imagine kadudu taking over your homestead in bomet and taking all your female relatives as spoils while you in Uganda cooling off your scared ass. Think carefully. Kikuyu will all fall back to nakuru and there no warrior can dare step even in molo, kikuyu are deadly as warriors, once they take oathing muuma you guys are done. We other kabilas will be watching silently just like 2007,NEP, Meruland business was as usual we just saw it on tv.
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Of course I dont mean them taking you head on but after Uhuru sends GSU police etc to massacre you guys thus making you soft targets for these kabilas who will move in to take care of the remains, This is what willhappen Pundit tell ypur warriors that they can't win this time you will be fighting all fronts.
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Police including GSU ni shadow. KDF ndio watu wanaogopa. You have to understand kalenjin will mostly fight at night - and kenya police are lazy - and will be taking guard daytime.
Now KDF - those capable of anything - including throwing bombs - and castrating warriors mt elgon style.
But if the numbers are huge - like Ruto wide assault - you're talkin millions against a few security officers - so only way out is political negotiation - you cannot fight Kalenjin nation as whole - and hope for a quick win. It will be big loss for everyone.
Utaskia political talks be done this time I suspect in Kampala or Adis Ababa - Ruto might run abroad. I really doubt he will stay in Nairobi if things go south.
From Serena talks, utaskia Munyonyo Talks :(
Of course I dont mean them taking you head on but after Uhuru sends GSU police etc to massacre you guys thus making you soft targets for these kabilas who will move in to take care of the remains, This is what willhappen Pundit tell ypur warriors that they can't win this time you will be fighting all fronts.
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Nowayaha, you're a ignorant, kalenjin warriors from home counties move en masse to cause chaos in nakuru to mt Elgon.I am talking thousands of warriors..upon a war cry.Kikuyu you can assemble a few mungiki but you have no such war infrastructure .Majority of those fighting in molo you may discover are from transmara.They pay themselves by stealing cattle, bicycle or whatever they can find as they evict n maim.In my home which on entry to mau in bomet..after a war cry..the following morning without fail..cattle business men will assemble..waiting to buy prized cows for cheap..the dogs of war sell and go back.They repeat until war is over.The only way to stop is not start..otherwise once kalenjin wide war cry is sounded things will be elephant for Kenya .Immediately a war cry is sounded, kalenjin warriors, change their attire, get weapons, move to assembly point, then village division move to location till it becomes county.Every clan know their war division n every village has their regiments.
Kalenjin military infrastructure is a work of art. If it wasn't for it destruction - most countries ought to borrow from it. I first saw it in 1992. A war cry - I had never heard of it before was sounded - women were trained then (during circumcision) - so I heard this funny wailing - attack molo 3 times - then it stops - the next village picks it attack molo 3 times - and it stops - the next village. We were in school - and an assembly was called and we were dismissed immediately - and but we were boarding - so while still preparing to find transport home - within 1hr - the school compound had turned into an assembly of warriors - and they kept coming - by 4pm - it was large multitude..Then they are arranged into war divisions and regiments with commanders. This is based on clans. They are 4 war regiments. Then they filled into Mau forest and went for Molo.
You can imagine that war cry that started in Molo reached Transmara - and in less than 4hrs - a transmara man was in Nakuru - ready to attack.
This why Kalenjin were only community in east africa to live spare - one hut in one ridge- the rest lived in manyattas and villages that were heavily fortified. Kalenjin knows as long as a war cry is sound - help will be on way very fast.
Now there are many classes of war cry - there are those a village can respond to - they are those a location will - and they are those the entire community is called.
Now that you bring Nakuru and Mt Elgon , We know what happened there in 2007-2008 In Nakuru and how SLDF were dealt with in 2008 .
In Nakuru out Of 11 constituencies , Kalenjin are predominantly with slight majority in Kuresoi North ,South and Rongai , The rest are filled with Kikuyus albeit with some P.E.V survivors having settled there . These are people who have been caught up in a war before and you will b sure they will be well prepared psychologically and resource wise
Their former Governor is Kinuthia Mbugua of the Administration Police Training College and Administration Police remember how he sealed off to the riotous mobs of the 2007/08 post election violence and taming Mungiki during Michukis tenor . This what Nakuru offers for its talents
If there is to be war One of the biggest battle front will be Narok –Transmara as you correctly point you will also be engaged there .Remember in 2007 The Kalenjins attacks were passively aided by Maasai and Luhya as they were in the same camp .Luos were the riot wing of ODM . It will be challenging managing one battle front in Kuresoi and another in Transmara . The logistics of doing that require preparedness and execution precision on the level of a Military Army and or Airforce.
As pointed out earlier ODM had the luos rioting in Nairobi and engaging in another war in Nairobi slums . The international media caught up with the riots and Nairobi P.E.V. easily as all their correspondence offices are in Nairobi . With No media it will be hard to highlight your plight . It will be more or less like Mt Elgon operation.
You are pegging a war in V now with 2007 conditions. Things are different.
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2007 the war started in transmara after maasai were defeated by Ngeno Ngong and smashed ballot boxes. As for mbugua you got jokes.. 2007 he couldn't help.Poloce cannot help much except prevent day light confrontation, OTHERWISE houses will be burnt day and night.Police cannot police farms.In Nakuru it will be Nakuru east ..from town to molo.that will see lots of wars.
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RV , refer to highlighted below , a year ago already had predicted Raila plan , when you were still instisting using violence as a strategy in politics
Don't personalize. I don't agree with majority of Kalenjin mindset.
But i am being dissapasionate and telling you the truth like I have always done.
Kalenjin minority in Narok are already getting kicked - I and many predicted this would happen.
This is just the nature of the beast.
Maasai are in position where they are getting alarmed - so Narok just prepare for many wars and bloodsheed.
When I predict something - It's based on my knolwedge and anlysis - it's not what I think.
If I was thinking like that - I wouldn't have married a GEMA woman and got kids with.
Let hope for the best - but definitely Uhuru-Ruto fallout is VERY BAD NEWS.
Kalenjin are almost fanatically backing Ruto -
If they miss PORK - they will not miss "land grievances" after "rigging allegation"
They will not take betrayal by GEMA lightly.
That I know because I know their thinking.
It's like predicting how Luos will react.
The problem I see with our people now is youth unemployment, their inability to do usual urban migration like western kenya ( I read some statistics that had 40% of Bungoma men out of county). In 1992 - maybe you needed to import warriors - now - everywhere in RV - kalenjin have so many idle youths - you can eaisly get a million fighting force.
Now add that youth unemployment to Ruto politics- and you wake up the land grievance monster of Jomo Kenyatta - and you have a civil war in your hand.
Uhuru has to understand this very very clearly - and they need to know if they go man to man with Ruto - it will be tragic. A lot of people will die. Millions more will suffer.
This is MAD - both sides will lose heavily - there will be no winner.
RV, your mindset is so in the 90s and have refused adapt to the new dispenstation.
First what make you think population outburst and land issue has only affected Kalenjins.
Secondly what makes you think Kalenjins hold monopoly to violence.
Furrhermore as indicated earlier politcs are different now in comparison to 90s and 2007 when Maasais and Luhyas the other players were on the same poltical formation with Kalenjin
From the data you provided (still looking for the most current and correct ) , you are in the 30% in Narok, Nakuru and TransNzoia thats a minority and can be equated to what you are calling "Foreigners"
A war always affects the minorities more than anyone else , you seem not to see this , your analysis on Naivasha and TransNzoia is Misguided.
So RV, in 2007-2008 you managed to remove en mass Kikuyus from the most 5 populous Kalenjin counties and including Uasin Ngishu , Majority relocated and settled in Nakuru county . So incase of violence in 2022 who will you evict (there is a small Kikuyu population around eldoret ) .This is what you are not seeing . You claimed to have data on population census tribe wise in Kalenjin counties - table them you will realize Kikuyu population is close to asymptotic. However in the counties there are counties where Kalenjins are a significant minority -This is the area which will be hard hit .Mass population eviction will happen in times of war .
Raila is setting stage for that - If you cant clearly see , Raila is trying to use the 41 vs 1 strategy against Ruto and Kalenjin , In 2007 Kibaki and his Mt Kenya Mafia and majority of Gema didnt see this , they only realized it once Luhya was gone even with Awori being Kibakis VP , and Kamba gone when Ngilu abandoned Kibaki and ran away with NARC party .
This s Railas plan , deny Ruto vying with Jubilee and turn Gema against Ruto by using Violence rhetoric .
Luckily Ruto knows what is happening and Ruto knows they cant afford to go that route .
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Again you continue with shamelss character assisination. I have never insisted on using any violence. But as analyst I recognise that part of the reason Mt Kenya support Ruto is the fear of repeat of 2007. It's one reason it not been easy to dump Ruto compared to say Raila.
I also believe Ruto signed in this deal with that as insurance against future betrayal - the fear of diaspora fate - has made many kikuyus to really think twice - before dumping Ruto. Otherwise power concede nothing - and they would have just dumped Ruto like they have done to Raila and Kalonzo - like nothing happened.
Of course it's not only reason why Ruto is popular there....but it's definitely part of the reason.
Again I DO NOT advocate violence but I analyze politics disspassionately. The 1m hostage that you do not want to acknowledge - but here we ANALYZE politics without fear or favour.
I CAN TELL YOU SINCE 1990s - Kipsigis have been voting for Maasai candidate in Transmara - FOR PEACE. In fact Moi use to tell them point blank - you choose land or politics. Eventually Ngeno went rogue - and decided to win - because kipisgis are popolous in many places - he won - before Kibaki PEV of 2007 - Maasai started killing kipsigis before even presidential voters were counted - for daring win Kilgoris seat - and broke all the ballot boxes - election had to be cancelled and - in the repeat- Ruto told Ngeno to step down - he refused - and hated Ruto until recently.
Right now a kipsigis can win govenor seat in Narok - but Maasai will unleash violence never seen before - and make life very hard for kipsigis diaspora pale. So kipsigis have to decide - are they ready for war with Maasai now - maybe not - so they will have to delay any ambition to politically dominate Maasai. Is it even worth going to war jfor a govenor seat?- so kipsigis will just pick the most pro-kipsigis maasai - and reject haters like Ole Kina.
This is new normal for Mt Kenya diaspora in RV - after 2007 - they have to choose politics or land.
RV , refer to highlighted below , a year ago already had predicted Raila plan , when you were still instisting using violence as a strategy in politics