Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 25, 2020, 09:19:03 PM
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Sorry it exclusive in Nandi. But this man truly knows history.
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Jesse Maiz was Eldoret South Mp - and he understand Nandi/Kalenjin history.
He start the history of Nandi pre Laibon (arrival) and post.
I think for me the most surprising is how Mwafrika was not a fool - the Laibon were strategist per excellence.
They had arrived in Nandi from Maasai - and because Nandis were not used to such kind hereditary leadership - they were treated with great suspicion.
He says because this - the consequence of a wrong call was death - the Laibon had to get it absolutely right. That meant studying the victim or enemy for months - they would basically study everything - meticulously planning raids. The nandi scouting (intelligence) was per excellence.
The Laibon became the greatest strategist in kenya - by the time Mzungu arrived in 1850 - the Nandis were basically undefeatable in kenya.When Nandis decided to attack the British - Peter West - the Laibon Koitalel had studied them for months - and he advised the nandi to attack the camp around midnight - when they had just fallen on sleep. They were to crawl for long to avoid the any detection and at once rain spears. The Briton and his camp woke up to more than 50 spears raining on them. They never managed to fire one bullet.
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The average Laibons spend their time either researching war or raid or disease. They spend all their time strategizing - sending scouts - and name it - but Koitatel Samoei became noted for his meticulously planning and strategy. Those cattle raids would be so meticulously planned - rarely anything went wrong - they knew the minutest details of the enemy.
By the time Mzungu came - he wasn't prepared for an enemy as intelligent as Samoei - and they had to fight 15yrs - and only ending it in cold blood murder when british had lied they were coming to sign a peace pact to leave Nandi independent.
Anyway it long interview - one consequence of Nandi verocity - is unlike rest of kalenjin who have had generation hand over - the Nandis were banned from doing that - the Luos and Luhyas would be overruned immediately a new warrior ageset was handed -over.
Bla bla bla.
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Koitalel was a great warrior no doubt, but why are fixated on the past? I hate this we wuz kingz and shit narrative!
Those elders were patriots who did their duty, and passed on gracefully, but our generation, we are regressing, poverty is universal, no innovation, just siasa and political sycophancy and waiting for a chance to loot public money.
There is a deep malaise. Our small mindedness will be our downfall. We need a renewal as a people.
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Samoei was not a warrior. Their clan do not go to war.They are tactician and strategist who advised the warriors
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Nandi resistance needs to be documented properly. Maasais laibons were no joke. In Nyeri they gave kikuyu immigrants there such trouble that kikuyus started raising boys to warrior. Kikuyus had no warriors but Maa attacks made ey them start raising a class of warriors. These boys would be born raised on milk, honey and meat. They would be serrated from general population. In kiambuu kikuyus just cut and run when faced by maasai. Even today in Ndeiya if maasai decide to run over kikuyu settlements it take police and paramilitary protection to stop them. I would love if Nandi scholars could put a book together on this period. The problem in kenya is that mainly only kikuyu scholars dedicated time in the 70s to document mau mau war
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Nandi resistance needs to be documented properly. Maasais laibons were no joke. In Nyeri they gave kikuyu immigrants there such trouble that kikuyus started raising boys to warrior. Kikuyus had no warriors but Maa attacks made ey them start raising a class of warriors. These boys would be born raised on milk, honey and meat. They would be serrated from general population. In kiambuu kikuyus just cut and run when faced by maasai. Even today in Ndeiya if maasai decide to run over kikuyu settlements it take police and paramilitary protection to stop them. I would love if Nandi scholars could put a book together on this period. The problem in kenya is that mainly only kikuyu scholars dedicated time in the 70s to document mau mau war
Karma is a bitch, the people they used to terrorize are taking over their lands.
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Nandi resistance needs to be documented properly. Maasais laibons were no joke. In Nyeri they gave kikuyu immigrants there such trouble that kikuyus started raising boys to warrior. Kikuyus had no warriors but Maa attacks made ey them start raising a class of warriors. These boys would be born raised on milk, honey and meat. They would be serrated from general population. In kiambuu kikuyus just cut and run when faced by maasai. Even today in Ndeiya if maasai decide to run over kikuyu settlements it take police and paramilitary protection to stop them. I would love if Nandi scholars could put a book together on this period. The problem in kenya is that mainly only kikuyu scholars dedicated time in the 70s to document mau mau war
Karma is a bitch, the people they used to terrorize are taking over their lands.
Kalenjin have failed miserably they have blown up 2 main legacy. Koitalel and Moi. Its sad Kalenjin are landless to be honest it pains me a great community like this is going to waste most Kalenjin now are hopeless and perversion has entered the community, . At least athletics is their main hope. We will give them another opportunity through mzito Ruto 2022 lets see if they can redeem themselves and Not by plundering the country.
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What mzungu and mwafrika revisionist call 'savage' 'guerrilla' in mwafrika land is what they term as meticulous and strategic planning and execution.
Reading the Mau Mau memoirs; you find genius strategists- food/fund raising in the dark; makeshift spears, arrows & gun factories against bombers and all brutal government and traitor machinery.
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Precisely -to be able to hold on the mighty Brits - for such a time - was no joke.
What mzungu and mwafrika revisionist call 'savage' 'guerrilla' in mwafrika land is what they term as meticulous and strategic planning and execution.
Reading the Mau Mau memoirs; you find genius strategists- food/fund raising in the dark; makeshift spears, arrows & gun factories against bombers and all brutal government and traitor machinery.
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Yes reading mau mau memiors you see a lot of strategic planning and running on the go. The generals and the community was very good in planning. Guerrilla warfare took root then. I think a buddy in the military told me that these tactics were being taught. This is the same thing that humbled Americans on Vietnam
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Njuri, we would be like fellow pastoralist, or kaput like Maasai, but generally we have done well, even in the agricluture that your people have practised for centuries. You may be suprised that in Africa we have only 50M farmers.
Kalenjin have failed miserably they have blown up 2 main legacy. Koitalel and Moi. Its sad Kalenjin are landless to be honest it pains me a great community like this is going to waste most Kalenjin now are hopeless and perversion has entered the community, . At least athletics is their main hope. We will give them another opportunity through mzito Ruto 2022 lets see if they can redeem themselves and Not by plundering the country.
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People mistake Koitalel for warrior. Koitalel was not a warrior. He was intellect of those days. He was short man about 5 feet and half. Before the arrival of British - the Laibons - acted as war/raiding strategistics, medicinemen, foresee, even witches and religious leaders. They never went to war or raids but they organized and plotted for many. After a succesfully raid - they would have a first pick of the spoil of war - and they became very rich. But if they made a wrong call too many times - the warriors or their relatives if they had been killed - would spear them to death. Their family would be told to place a leaf on them (to say Bye Bye) - and they would be executed. So most Laibons did meticously planning before authorizing any raid.They would refuse to give the go-ahead until they were pretty sure the success of those raids was pretty high. The recoincissance and intelligence for some raids would last months - until everything had been hushed out - to exact time when the first attack would be launched.
Before their arrival - Kalenjin had raided in small bands - with raiding party doing everything. Now the Maasai imports (Laibon remnant of Maasai civil war of Uasin Ngishu-Sigilia Maasai) had brought the Maasai culture - of large raids meticously planned.
Some were average - a few were extradionary in their intelligence, tact and authority - and one such was Koitalel Samoei.
By the time the British came - Koitatel was rich man commanding authority over Nandis - he had 3 wives, owned a large herd of cattle and had about 2,000 acres of land - his brother Koilegen - was commandeering Kipsigis. Before then nobody had managed to gain authority over the entire Nandi tribe..the Kipsigis treated his brother and their laibon as unwelcomed witches.
But despite koitalel wealth and fame, he wasn't the proud kind of guy - he was reclusive - lived almost like an hermit - spending most of his time planning and strategizing.
The British were least prepared for a savage like him. Koitael was no mean feat - he had swahili slaves (POW) who acted as his interpreters - and basically run a gov - with "ministers".
Whatever the British threw for 15yrs - including some largest military expedition ever seen in the region - Koitatel was more prepared - he knew when to run - he knew when to fight - the Nandis believed in him - for he had never been wrong.
Just when Koitatel thought he had prevailed - the British had agreed to have Nandi independent - he fell to cold blood murder on a peace conference. The British had shot at him and massacred 100 laibons. The Laibons having studied the British had probably thought they had honour.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtGu3P_W8AAZrJj?format=jpg&name=large)
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Cont...most people think PEV was planned because it appeared meticolous...some of the elements of the yore are retained. Most of what we learned at MTC is oathed to secrecy but I can tell you - there is a lot of raiding other MTCs - it takes a lot of planning and execution to pull it. During PEV - kalenjin warriors at day time - sleep - as the laibons strategize - they will want to know everything - who has guns - the police - and all that - and at midnight - is when most attacks are preffered - for element of suprise is the advantage the invader needs - every second count. If there the enemy has watchers or scouts - the attack are launched at 3am when they would have fallen a sleep - if they are not - at 11-12am. In the cattle raids - tribes targetted would keep their cattle in deep gorges fenced with intricate details - and yet the warriors had to bring home the cows. The Luos and Luhyas lived in villages that were like towns = huge villages - with cattle in the middle - some dug the a dungeon - and hid the ladder :) - some attacks are decoy - the fastet of warrior would poke the enemy - and run as fast as they can - with enemy following.
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Nandi resistance needs to be documented properly. Maasais laibons were no joke. In Nyeri they gave kikuyu immigrants there such trouble that kikuyus started raising boys to warrior. Kikuyus had no warriors but Maa attacks made ey them start raising a class of warriors. These boys would be born raised on milk, honey and meat. They would be serrated from general population. In kiambuu kikuyus just cut and run when faced by maasai. Even today in Ndeiya if maasai decide to run over kikuyu settlements it take police and paramilitary protection to stop them. I would love if Nandi scholars could put a book together on this period. The problem in kenya is that mainly only kikuyu scholars dedicated time in the 70s to document mau mau war
Karma is a bitch, the people they used to terrorize are taking over their lands.
Kalenjin have failed miserably they have blown up 2 main legacy. Koitalel and Moi. Its sad Kalenjin are landless to be honest it pains me a great community like this is going to waste most Kalenjin now are hopeless and perversion has entered the community, . At least athletics is their main hope. We will give them another opportunity through mzito Ruto 2022 lets see if they can redeem themselves and Not by plundering the country.
Kales still have the largest arable land in Kenya, I wouldn't call them landless. They lost a few bits of land to settlers but nothing catastrophic. The whole of RV is theirs, a fertile, well watered and verdant land full of potential. Total fertility rate ( TFR) has to be brought down for the Kalenjin nation to realize its full potential. They are a generation behind Kikuyus and other progressive tribes in mindset, education and exposure. Many are still stuck in the past, read Pundit's threads: he espouses very old fashioned, statist, central planning, 20th century esque emphasis on heavy industry and infrastructure buidling on credit. But the smart current consensus is investments in small holders to increase their productivity is
what gets you the most bang for your shilling in pursuit of development. Ruto is a non starter.
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Nandi resistance needs to be documented properly. Maasais laibons were no joke. In Nyeri they gave kikuyu immigrants there such trouble that kikuyus started raising boys to warrior. Kikuyus had no warriors but Maa attacks made ey them start raising a class of warriors. These boys would be born raised on milk, honey and meat. They would be serrated from general population. In kiambuu kikuyus just cut and run when faced by maasai. Even today in Ndeiya if maasai decide to run over kikuyu settlements it take police and paramilitary protection to stop them. I would love if Nandi scholars could put a book together on this period. The problem in kenya is that mainly only kikuyu scholars dedicated time in the 70s to document mau mau war
Karma is a bitch, the people they used to terrorize are taking over their lands.
Kalenjin have failed miserably they have blown up 2 main legacy. Koitalel and Moi. Its sad Kalenjin are landless to be honest it pains me a great community like this is going to waste most Kalenjin now are hopeless and perversion has entered the community, . At least athletics is their main hope. We will give them another opportunity through mzito Ruto 2022 lets see if they can redeem themselves and Not by plundering the country.
Kales still have the largest arable land in Kenya, I wouldn't call them landless. They lost a few bits of land to settlers but nothing catastrophic. The whole of RV is theirs, a fertile, well watered and verdant land full of potential. Total fertility rate ( TFR) has to be brought down for the Kalenjin nation to realize its full potential. They are a generation behind Kikuyus and other progressive tribes in mindset, education and exposure. Many are still stuck in the past, read Pundit's threads: he espouses very old fashioned, statist, central planning, 20th century esque emphasis on heavy industry and infrastructure buidling on credit. But the smart current consensus is investments in small holders to increase their productivity is
what gets you the most bang for your shilling in pursuit of development. Ruto is a non starter.
Perfectly put. The Problem I see with Pundit and most graduates from Kenyan universities is their old school class of thinking. Pundit you can tell is an academically intelligent guy but lacks wisdom and modern thinking that are critical in Todays world. He would be knocked down easily if he engaged those arguments to proper millennials, at times i see them argue endlessly with Robina who I think is only interested in driving pundit crazy and our dear pundit always takes the bait.
For comparison Kalenjin are stuck with Pundit classical thinking while Kikuyus have long emancipated from this they have moved from land as basic unit of production to other areas. Another important factor for creation of wealth is population control, kipsigis and kisiis have multiplied like lice and now face economic consequences. For instance Kisii and Meru were equivalent in population in the 1990s at 1.3M each but you can see clearly 30 years kisii have added a gap of 700K over the Ameru not forgetting Kisii county plus Nyamira are only about 2,000sqkm compared to Meru and Tharaka nithi land about 10,000sqm.
Ameru manage to hold to their favorable economic status because they perfectly balance land, population and economic activity that rules out need for mass migration to slums of Nairobi like Kisii, Luhya, Luos, Kikuyus and kalenjin do.
RV is very fertile where kalenjins live but population explosion render it useless unless immediate intervention is done, again Kalenjin need to diversify into other farming not just wheat and maize, they need go into dairy and horticultural but with old school thinking that will not change I project kalenjin reaching the current levels of Mt. Kenya societies c. 2040 AD
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Yes, I believe real development, will only happen if we go mega projects, china like. Otherwise there is so much you can get from productivity and efficiency gains from agrarian economy. This is where we differ with HK. kibakisque trickle down economic - is shortermism - we need to think big - see the British build a railway in 1890 - and see what it's done.
Most of you apply developed world economics on undeveloped world.
What developing countries need before anything else is to bridge the huge infrastracture deficit. That mean mega investment in roads, railways, housing, water, sewage, power and etc.
This is what Ethiopia is doing.
Once you have nailed infrastructure - then we should go for manufacturing.
Kales still have the largest arable land in Kenya, I wouldn't call them landless. They lost a few bits of land to settlers but nothing catastrophic. The whole of RV is theirs, a fertile, well watered and verdant land full of potential. Total fertility rate ( TFR) has to be brought down for the Kalenjin nation to realize its full potential. They are a generation behind Kikuyus and other progressive tribes in mindset, education and exposure. Many are still stuck in the past, read Pundit's threads: he espouses very old fashioned, statist, central planning, 20th century esque emphasis on heavy industry and infrastructure buidling on credit. But the smart current consensus is investments in small holders to increase their productivity is
what gets you the most bang for your shilling in pursuit of development. Ruto is a non starter.
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When will you realize that Merus will be and have always been small potatos. You want to compare the majestic kalenjin people with Meroe or Mt warriors :).
Which farming are you talking about - start with Tea - the amount of tea produced in Kericho, Nakuru,bomet, transzoia and nandi county - by Kalenjin- would drown Meru and entire gema land.
The amount of Maize produced in Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Narok, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu and Tranzoia would drown Meru and entire kenya - heck who feed Kenya with Ugali - if not Kalenjin.
The same with wheat and barley. Even I bet in potatos and name all the tubers - Kalenjin would drown you.
The same with milk, beef, sheep and goats. Baringo has more sheeps and goats than all GEMA combined.
Talk of horticulture - the amount of flowers produced by Kalenjin elite would drown anything you have in Meru.
You guys have little milk, little bananas, little mangoes and miraa. End of story.
Kalenjin are the breadbasket of kenya - we do things in large scale - and you're babies who sell bananas.
You need to take a tour of Kalenjin land so you can see FARMING!! Per capita maybe you're slighly well off - but in terms of scale - you're not there.
Kalenjin still have the best of kenya lands - in large size.
You're doing 1/4 acre farming reserved for kids in Kalenjin land. Check the tractor ownership in Kenya - and tell me if it's not almost exclusively Kalenjin.
Perfectly put. The Problem I see with Pundit and most graduates from Kenyan universities is their old school class of thinking. Pundit you can tell is an academically intelligent guy but lacks wisdom and modern thinking that are critical in Todays world. He would be knocked down easily if he engaged those arguments to proper millennials, at times i see them argue endlessly with Robina who I think is only interested in driving pundit crazy and our dear pundit always takes the bait.
For comparison Kalenjin are stuck with Pundit classical thinking while Kikuyus have long emancipated from this they have moved from land as basic unit of production to other areas. Another important factor for creation of wealth is population control, kipsigis and kisiis have multiplied like lice and now face economic consequences. For instance Kisii and Meru were equivalent in population in the 1990s at 1.3M each but you can see clearly 30 years kisii have added a gap of 700K over the Ameru not forgetting Kisii county plus Nyamira are only about 2,000sqkm compared to Meru and Tharaka nithi land about 10,000sqm.
Ameru manage to hold to their favorable economic status because they perfectly balance land, population and economic activity that rules out need for mass migration to slums of Nairobi like Kisii, Luhya, Luos, Kikuyus and kalenjin do.
RV is very fertile where kalenjins live but population explosion render it useless unless immediate intervention is done, again Kalenjin need to diversify into other farming not just wheat and maize, they need go into dairy and horticultural but with old school thinking that will not change I project kalenjin reaching the current levels of Mt. Kenya societies c. 2040 AD
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Yes, I believe real development, will only happen if we go mega projects, china like. Otherwise there is so much you can get from productivity and efficiency gains from agrarian economy. This is where we differ with HK. kibakisque trickle down economic - is shortermism - we need to think big - see the British build a railway in 1890 - and see what it's done.
Most of you apply developed world economics on undeveloped world.
What developing countries need before anything else is to bridge the huge infrastracture deficit. That mean mega investment in roads, railways, housing, water, sewage, power and etc.
This is what Ethiopia is doing.
Once you have nailed infrastructure - then we should go for manufacturing.
:D I told you, you never change your mind despite the evidence.
I believe real development will only happen when you invest in the people, it makes absolutely no sense to invest billions of dollars on vast white elephants while your citizens literally starving. That is lunacy. I believe in small evolutionary gains in infrastructure self paid instead of huge foreign mega projects paid on credit that lines the pockets of foreigner governments. You are not even aware of the geopolitical traps being laid for developing countries. Who is pushing those huge infrastructure projects? African elites are just roped in, hoi polloi like you dance to the tune of your tribal chiefs and parrot nonsensical slogans like we need infrastructure without even deeply thinking about it. It the reason African governments continually fall into financial troubles time and time again, thoughtless, mindless and brain dead.
You think Ethiopia is doing so well? What planet are you on? Do you even read Pundit?
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Pundit let me summarize
you/nkalenjini=Quantity mass production china style
Me/ Ameru= Quality, niche markets Denmark style.
And you wonder why Meru tea fetchea 3 times price of Kericho nkalenjini tea?? Pundit you are stubbornly big and thick headed you must have been a bully and rebel in your youth.
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Arcardian.There is something call marginal utility.There is so much you can milk.We need change the economic structure. WHEN WE BUILD A RAILWAY LASTING 100YRS WHY BURDEN THE CURRENT GENERATION. if I was the president I would borrow 100yr century bond of 100billion dollars and bridge the infrastructure deficit.Once you build these things you don't build it again..you just maintain it.These is how Europe developed.Once you have infrastructure then you can start attracting manufacturing..of course we also need to invest in people..but the best investment is finding them jobs..and that we do by manufacturing stuff..
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Pundit let me summarize
you/nkalenjini=Quantity mass production china style
Me/ Ameru= Quality, niche markets Denmark style.
And you wonder why Meru tea fetchea 3 times price of Kericho nkalenjini tea?? Pundit you are stubbornly big and thick headed you must have been a bully and rebel in your youth.
That is actually true..but I think you already hit marginal utility..meanwhile we still have land to expand..so our production will increase through that..and yours may also increase if you go high value
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Arcardian.There is something call marginal utility.There is so much you can milk.We need change the economic structure. WHEN WE BUILD A RAILWAY LASTING 100YRS WHY BURDEN THE CURRENT GENERATION. if I was the president I would borrow 100yr century bond of 100billion dollars and bridge the infrastructure deficit.Once you build these things you don't build it again..you just maintain it.These is how Europe developed.Once you have infrastructure then you can start attracting manufacturing..of course we also need to invest in people..but the best investment is finding them jobs..and that we do by manufacturing stuff..
Sometimes in 2013, a plan was hatched to raise Kenya’s installed generation capacity to 6,762 megawatts in just 40 months.
As to who would consume the power and whether the ultimate goal would end up with cheaper electricity to consumers, was not given much thought and seven years later, the scheme has short circuited Kenya’s single off-taker for electricity-Kenya Power
The Jubilee Administration’s plans to add 5,000MW to the country’s electricity generation was one of the most criticised ambitions but it pushed on anyway.
The argument then was that Kenya was going to grow industries, have an electric train on the standard gauge railway line, build resort cities and establish several special economic zones with huge demand for power.
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/how-too-much-energy-generation-short-circuited-kenya-power-1925156
That is what happens when someone is afflicted with infrastructure-at-any-cost disease, common sense and planning seems to evade them. There is overcapacity, and the returns on this investment are not forthcoming.
The same has happened with SGR and other mega infrastructure projects, the anticipated private investments that would enable the country to pay for it have not materialized.
Public borrowing has crowded out private credit for businesses, that is why the business climate has been so tough the last few years. Jubilee knew this but it was an opportunity too good to pass for plundering the country.
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Nice problems to have. Overcapacity. Bring it on. Easy to solve. Export power. If not lower the price and use it to blast stones.
Arcardian.There is something call marginal utility.There is so much you can milk.We need change the economic structure. WHEN WE BUILD A RAILWAY LASTING 100YRS WHY BURDEN THE CURRENT GENERATION. if I was the president I would borrow 100yr century bond of 100billion dollars and bridge the infrastructure deficit.Once you build these things you don't build it again..you just maintain it.These is how Europe developed.Once you have infrastructure then you can start attracting manufacturing..of course we also need to invest in people..but the best investment is finding them jobs..and that we do by manufacturing stuff..
Sometimes in 2013, a plan was hatched to raise Kenya’s installed generation capacity to 6,762 megawatts in just 40 months.
As to who would consume the power and whether the ultimate goal would end up with cheaper electricity to consumers, was not given much thought and seven years later, the scheme has short circuited Kenya’s single off-taker for electricity-Kenya Power
The Jubilee Administration’s plans to add 5,000MW to the country’s electricity generation was one of the most criticised ambitions but it pushed on anyway.
The argument then was that Kenya was going to grow industries, have an electric train on the standard gauge railway line, build resort cities and establish several special economic zones with huge demand for power.
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/how-too-much-energy-generation-short-circuited-kenya-power-1925156
That is what happens when someone is afflicted with infrastructure-at-any-cost disease, common sense and planning seems to evade them. There is overcapacity, and the returns on this investment are not forthcoming.
The same has happened with SGR and other mega infrastructure projects, the anticipated private investments that would enable the country to pay for it have not materialized.
Public borrowing has crowded out private credit for businesses, that is why the business climate has been so tough the last few years. Jubilee knew this but it was an opportunity too good to pass for plundering the country.
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Nice problems to have. Overcapacity. Bring it on. Easy to solve. Export power. If not lower the price and use it to blast stones.
Have you ever run a business, Pundit? One can't afford excess inventory or excess buildings, or machinery lying around. Everything has to be paid for, it adds up quickly and eats into your bottom line. No wonder feckless Kale heads ran virtually all Gov parastatals to the ground during the disastrous 24 years at the helm. You have no business sense or acumen. Siasa ya kifua kifua tu.
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Nice problems to have. Overcapacity. Bring it on. Easy to solve. Export power. If not lower the price and use it to blast stones.
Have you ever run a business, Pundit? One can't afford excess inventory or excess buildings, or machinery lying around. Everything has to be paid for, it adds up quickly and eats into your bottom line. No wonder feckless Kale heads ran virtually all Gov parastatals to the ground during the disastrous 24 years at the helm. You have no business sense or acumen. Siasa ya kifua kifua tu.
Use you management skill to become pork for 24hrs..at least kalenjin have 24 as pork and now 21 as dpork
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I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540
Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.
China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?
Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.
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I have been at the forefront of challenging the current international development flavor of the month which is called “infrastructure-led growth” — which is a complete oxymoron. Now, I’m increasingly looking at global finance as the new extractive industry in Africa.
They’re no longer interested in minerals, they’re interested in interest, as in high yield financial instruments.
And these mega infrastructure investments is one of the key instruments of trying to extract the surplus from the continent.
You know, this prognosis was already gaining currency when we began to see debt distress so soon after HIPC (debt forgiveness for Highly Indebted Poor Countries). We were forgiven debt the other day… then we had “Africa Rising”… and then you ask why is it that “Africa Rising” has quickly turned into again in debt distress? And I think that once we begin to see that there are people who have been force-feeding us capital, both from the East and the West, but they’re really looking for what the markets call “hunting for yield” so they can earn high returns for their pension funds because the returns [elsewhere] have fallen quite a bit.
I hope that coronavirus will be the final nail in the coffin of “infrastructure-led growth”
Nothing has changed, China has joined the Berlin conference for exploitation of Africa. As Robina put it, we have lots of broke unproductive folks who can't afford their next meal, will they eat infrastructure? Take care of mwanainchi then you will have the tax base to construct your own roads, railways and bridges without borrowing from foreigners and jeopardizing your sovereignty.
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You clearly don't understand.
Let me break it down for you.
We have 3 sectors in any modern economy.
We have private sector - from SME to big Coorps.
We have public sector - parastals to regulators to Deep State :)
We have individuals - me and you.
The economy can only grow when all those 3 are investing, engaging, producing, name it.
You guys want the public sector to completely disengage -and live the private sector and individuals to do all the investing.
That can only work in developed world - where all basic infrastructure have been built - and country doesn't have to build new roads or sewages or rails - they just maintain it.
Kenya we have well known problem - huge infrastructure deficit - that is gov job.
It's NOT gov job to baby sit private sector and individuals. Maybe they can offer tax incentive - but generally gov should focus on what gov need to do.
And that will solve all these economic theories - gov job is not there to promote the economy - it's there to provide you with water in your house, electricity, paved road, sewage, security and that is pretty much it.
I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540
Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.
China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?
Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.
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Those are antiquated economics and 20th C strategy. You can't replicate China and Asian Tigers 50 years ago model. Because everyone cannot be world factory - commonsense. Leave that to Vietnam and Bangladesh. Command economy, central planning, slavish labor, etc - 50 years ago when Japs, Europe moved on to hitec stuff and leave low- grade industry to China. Now China is leaving that space to Vietnam, Burma - which are ripe to take over geographically, demographically, politically. Kenya won't cut it and as you can see services have grown as mfg remain at dismal 10%. Cause it same old bicycle, Haco biro, wheelbarrow, weetabix, pesticide, flour mills, etc. Not computers or electronics or even motor bikes. Kenya socioeconomic structure is not conducive to manufacturing.
Focus on what works. Education fuels all sectors - skilled labor is key. Public sector has limited taxes so what we discuss here is optimal utility. The upgrade of old rail is all that was needed not $5B usd SGR which quickly exhaust national creditworth as loss- minting machine. Intercounty highways are good but there is a limit. Maybe give governor more money for murram road - that's all rural areas are worth.. Free or cheap housing is nonsense- has failed even in rich Singapore or Malaysia. People will live where they can afford. All those run-down GoK houses in Nairobi and Athi River were last repaired in 80s :) I bet it ghost workers who live there leeching on taxpayer.
Public spending directly affects private sector - creditflow - so you cannot say GoK should not babysit the economy. Last-mile is more nonsense - cause folks can't afford power if they have no food or housing. Most Jubilee projects were overkill or looting schemes, including Turkwell excess power. Development needs proper thinking ala Kibaki cause priorities matter.
Maybe only education has infinite marginal utility. Jubilee 2 is doing development - Jubilee 1 was many mispriorities and wastage.
You clearly don't understand.
Let me break it down for you.
We have 3 sectors in any modern economy.
We have private sector - from SME to big Coorps.
We have public sector - parastals to regulators to Deep State :)
We have individuals - me and you.
The economy can only grow when all those 3 are investing, engaging, producing, name it.
You guys want the public sector to completely disengage -and live the private sector and individuals to do all the investing.
That can only work in developed world - where all basic infrastructure have been built - and country doesn't have to build new roads or sewages or rails - they just maintain it.
Kenya we have well known problem - huge infrastructure deficit - that is gov job.
It's NOT gov job to baby sit private sector and individuals. Maybe they can offer tax incentive - but generally gov should focus on what gov need to do.
And that will solve all these economic theories - gov job is not there to promote the economy - it's there to provide you with water in your house, electricity, paved road, sewage, security and that is pretty much it.
I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540
Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.
China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?
Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.
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Looking at long term project like SGR with short term lenses make the rest of your drivel not really worth it.
US interstate highway was built in 1960s
US rail system was built 2 centuries ago.
Now all the US does is maintain them.
Germans did the same earlier on (autobann)
China did this in 1990s.
You cannot go to software issues before you fix hardware issues.
Yes Kenya Power may suffer now - but in 10yrs they will be glad - gov subsidized those connections.
Once everyone has been connected to the grid - we would have sorted supply side issues forever - bar annual maintenance fee.
We can then go to demand side.
We need to build inter-county highways akin to the US (KENHA highways)
We need to ensure every household is connected to pipe water and for urban areas - to sewage system.
We need to pave all roads..all kura, kerra and county roads paved.
Construction industry alone can employ many and contribute to GDP - if we focus on huge public sector construction.
This is called infrastructure deficit - and once we have ticked the basic infrastructure boxes - we can then start looking at your theories of maximizing and optimizing.
Those are antiquated economics and 20th C strategy. You can't replicate China and Asian Tigers 50 years ago model. Because everyone cannot be world factory - commonsense. Leave that to Vietnam and Bangladesh. Command economy, central planning, slavish labor, etc - 50 years ago when Japs, Europe moved on to hitec stuff and leave low- grade industry to China. Now China is leaving that space to Vietnam, Burma - which are ripe to take over geographically, demographically, politically. Kenya won't cut it and as you can see services have grown as mfg remain at dismal 10%. Cause it same old bicycle, Haco biro, wheelbarrow, weetabix, pesticide, flour mills, etc. Not computers or electronics or even motor bikes. Kenya socioeconomic structure is not conducive to manufacturing.
Focus on what works. Education fuels all sectors - skilled labor is key. Public sector has limited taxes so what we discuss here is optimal utility. The upgrade of old rail is all that was needed not $5B usd SGR which quickly exhaust national creditworth as loss- minting machine. Intercounty highways are good but there is a limit. Maybe give governor more money for murram road - that's all rural areas are worth.. Free or cheap housing is nonsense- has failed even in rich Singapore or Malaysia. People will live where they can afford. All those run-down GoK houses in Nairobi and Athi River were last repaired in 80s :) I bet it ghost workers who live there leeching on taxpayer.
Public spending directly affects private sector - creditflow - so you cannot say GoK should not babysit the economy. Last-mile is more nonsense - cause folks can't afford power if they have no food or housing. Most Jubilee projects were overkill or looting schemes, including Turkwell excess power. Development needs proper thinking ala Kibaki cause priorities matter.
Maybe only education has infinite marginal utility. Jubilee 2 is doing development - Jubilee 1 was many mispriorities and wastage.
You clearly don't understand.
Let me break it down for you.
We have 3 sectors in any modern economy.
We have private sector - from SME to big Coorps.
We have public sector - parastals to regulators to Deep State :)
We have individuals - me and you.
The economy can only grow when all those 3 are investing, engaging, producing, name it.
You guys want the public sector to completely disengage -and live the private sector and individuals to do all the investing.
That can only work in developed world - where all basic infrastructure have been built - and country doesn't have to build new roads or sewages or rails - they just maintain it.
Kenya we have well known problem - huge infrastructure deficit - that is gov job.
It's NOT gov job to baby sit private sector and individuals. Maybe they can offer tax incentive - but generally gov should focus on what gov need to do.
And that will solve all these economic theories - gov job is not there to promote the economy - it's there to provide you with water in your house, electricity, paved road, sewage, security and that is pretty much it.
I thought we long debunked this borrow & build "China model" - roadmap to nowhere - Kenya has ZERO in common with China. Communism for one. Bitter Ndii wrote an op ed on this https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/why-skyscrapers-and-superhighways-are-not-development-1045540
Pundit says we (diaspora) apply developed world thinking to the undeveloped - no, you Pundit are applying 20th C model to 21st C.
China is probably the last country to leapfrog on the agrarian-> manufactiring-> services model. Digital factory means manufacturing is no longer a big source of employment unless you want to be uncompetitive. Robots are packing stuff in Amazon warehouses as drones deliver. Just as mechanized agriculture fewer and fewer folks will find work as farm workers cause milk machine is more efficient. That manufacturing ship already sailed. Demographic dividend is the only windfall looming - probably the last hope for Kenya - cause it means many qualified thinkers and doers. Single dependant per head means many kids will get proper schooling - and free up family cost for micro business. Presently a few middle class earn big from their skilled labor in service industry. Corporate staff in banks, telcos, name it - who live in Parklands or Kileleshwa. The rest are farm, mjengo and mhindi sweatshop workers earning below poverty line. Most middle class still have their jobs despite covid. Why aren't the jobless warriors happy working in those big RV farms?
Kibaki targeted the gaping Moi deficit - using privatization capital - cause it was hanging fruit with high marginal utility. Beyond that - building sewer or free housing or free power or rail to the ward is waste of time and resources. Because there is nothing like sewer or housing deficit - there is only broke unproductive folks who can't afford it.. Invest in relevant education and folks will take it from there. I am told Jubilee 2 is doing lots of recarpeting of old roads and rail past Nairobi. Gilgil-to-Nyahururu and such - without mountains of new debt. This is all they should have done since 2013. Of course Pundit think this is failure cause there is no new shiny rail or highway.
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Firstly: all those countries you point have little or nothing in common to Kenya or Sub Sahara. Europe was long industrialized but infra destroyed by WW2. So the "software" was already in place which guaranteed ROI from the IMF loans. US, UK, Tigers, China, Indonesia, Brazil, etc - were either 1) liquid heavy industrial economies who paid cash, 2)used slavish labor, 3)and/or had commodity booms. You will be pressed to show a borrow & build success story. SGR is one example of wastage or suboptimal investment - cause nothing exist in Narok or Kisumu that old rail could not carry.
Secondly, those alien examples are 30, 50, 100 years ago. Manufacturing as a stepping stone to prosperity is a hard nut today - cause the factory has been automated. All the mhindi "industrialists" in Kenya - Chandaria, Merali, Vimal Shah or Kirubi - are flour mills, toiletries, pesticides, tyres - not pricey electronics, autos, tractors - that would tilt massive trade deficit. Low grade needs illiberal structures you have in China or Vietnam but not Kenya. Teachers want to be paid like doctors, doctors want to be MPs, MPs want governor or PORK salary. There are no trade unions in China, Vietnam, Ethiopia - no labor courts and no democracy. Kenya is politically-, structurally, time- and etc-barred from low-grade manufacturing. Meaning the hard infra you tout are unnecessary or suboptimal ingredients for development. Kenya path is services - which mean skilled labor - education - which fit perfectly with the demographic boom.
Thirdly from 1 & 2 you see software comes before hardware in Kenya and most Sub Sahara. Kibera folks are not unproductive cause they lack house or sewer - mostly they are poorly educated and/or have no marketable skills. A mere programmer like yourself probably live in Lavington - it not hardware but software that differentiate you from slum dwellers. GDP would still grow whether you do SGR or Metrorail - it a question of priority. KQ and Safcom probably have equal turnover or GDP - yet one mint losses the other profits. KQ could claim the Boeing Dreamliners are longterm investment - Project Mawingu 8) - which is nonsense cause there is no projected future market. If you borrowed twice over and build SGR 2 and 3 to Kisumu, Turkana and Garissa - GDP would still grow - before serious debt crisis emerge.
I know it difficult for keen historian like Pundit to let go of antique ideas. :) It akin to some fools now still obsessed with real estate or land as malls mint losses. It was windfall in 70-90's population boom so they think it will always work out. They are stuck with mortgages and auctioneers - time long moved the cheese.
Looking at long term project like SGR with short term lenses make the rest of your drivel not really worth it.
US interstate highway was built in 1960s
US rail system was built 2 centuries ago.
Now all the US does is maintain them.
Germans did the same earlier on (autobann)
China did this in 1990s.
You cannot go to software issues before you fix hardware issues.
Yes Kenya Power may suffer now - but in 10yrs they will be glad - gov subsidized those connections.
Once everyone has been connected to the grid - we would have sorted supply side issues forever - bar annual maintenance fee.
We can then go to demand side.
We need to build inter-county highways akin to the US (KENHA highways)
We need to ensure every household is connected to pipe water and for urban areas - to sewage system.
We need to pave all roads..all kura, kerra and county roads paved.
Construction industry alone can employ many and contribute to GDP - if we focus on huge public sector construction.
This is called infrastructure deficit - and once we have ticked the basic infrastructure boxes - we can then start looking at your theories of maximizing and optimizing.
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Robina, you're just out of your depth.
There is no new theory for development that we are waiting for.
It will remain agagrain/agri economy (low income countries)
Transition into low grade manufacturing (middle income countries)
Then into high end manufacturing and tech (high income countries)
Kenya has to transition from low middle income to proper middle income by trippling the economy - from 100B - 300B - with population of 60B - by 2030 - at minimum we need to be at 250B dollars to join middle class countries.
Kenya has a nice problem - huge infrastructure deficit - huge housing deficit.
This can be good employer for majority of unskilled kenyans.
Now the question of capital - you can leverage or invest saving.
As long as we borrow prudently - long maturity loan of 50-100yrs - we can get where we want faster
That is leverage.
SGR for example is mostly long term loan.
I don't know where the pressure to repay it come from?
The maturity is 30-50yrs.
If there is a lender like IMF or WB or China or Eurobond - dolling out 50-100yr long maturing loan - we should take it.
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Firstly: all those countries you point have little or nothing in common to Kenya or Sub Sahara. Europe was long industrialized but infra destroyed by WW2. So the "software" was already in place which guaranteed ROI from the IMF loans. US, UK, Tigers, China, Indonesia, Brazil, etc - were either 1) liquid heavy industrial economies who paid cash, 2)used slavish labor, 3)and/or had commodity booms. You will be pressed to show a borrow & build success story. SGR is one example of wastage or suboptimal investment - cause nothing exist in Narok or Kisumu that old rail could not carry.
Secondly, those alien examples are 30, 50, 100 years ago. Manufacturing as a stepping stone to prosperity is a hard nut today - cause the factory has been automated. All the mhindi "industrialists" in Kenya - Chandaria, Merali, Vimal Shah or Kirubi - are flour mills, toiletries, pesticides, tyres - not pricey electronics, autos, tractors - that would tilt massive trade deficit. Low grade needs illiberal structures you have in China or Vietnam but not Kenya. Teachers want to be paid like doctors, doctors want to be MPs, MPs want governor or PORK salary. There are no trade unions in China, Vietnam, Ethiopia - no labor courts and no democracy. Kenya is politically-, structurally, time- and etc-barred from low-grade manufacturing. Meaning the hard infra you tout are unnecessary or suboptimal ingredients for development. Kenya path is services - which mean skilled labor - education - which fit perfectly with the demographic boom.
Thirdly from 1 & 2 you see software comes before hardware in Kenya and most Sub Sahara. Kibera folks are not unproductive cause they lack house or sewer - mostly they are poorly educated and/or have no marketable skills. A mere programmer like yourself probably live in Lavington - it not hardware but software that differentiate you from slum dwellers. GDP would still grow whether you do SGR or Metrorail - it a question of priority. KQ and Safcom probably have equal turnover or GDP - yet one mint losses the other profits. KQ could claim the Boeing Dreamliners are longterm investment - Project Mawingu 8) - which is nonsense cause there is no projected future market. If you borrowed twice over and build SGR 2 and 3 to Kisumu, Turkana and Garissa - GDP would still grow - before serious debt crisis emerge.
I know it difficult for keen historian like Pundit to let go of antique ideas. :) It akin to some fools now still obsessed with real estate or land as malls mint losses. It was windfall in 70-90's population boom so they think it will always work out. They are stuck with mortgages and auctioneers - time long moved the cheese.
*vigorous claps*
Well put, Robina!
Kweli you have this guy's number, you checkmate him everywhere.
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Interestingly, I didn't find anything worth rebutting from her.
I guess we are on different wavelength.
For example - he misquotes Vietnam - and yet Vietnam is following footsteps of China - and supposedly China model is gone.
Closer home - Ethiopia has shown us what public sector can do - to famine poster child - to country that has grown at 10% for nearly 3 decades.
Most of you just copy paste 1st world arguments and apply it in 3rd world country.
*vigorous claps*
Well put, Robina!
Kweli you have this guy's number, you checkmate him everywhere.
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I am curious. Is there a single country(not some small tropical tax haven island) that is developed and has never been industrialized?
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I am curious. Is there a single country(not some small tropical tax haven island) that is developed and has never been industrialized?
Spain developed by looting gold and other minerals from south America. Yes unless you strike a natural resource jackpot like middle east..you have to industralize.