Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on July 31, 2020, 10:09:39 AM
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I don't see how Mt Kenya will want anything to do with it if they cannot get their "one shilling one man" propaganda going on.
Uhuru cooked census preparing for this.
It appears to me Somalis numbers were suppressed and Kikuyu numbers increased.
And it all fell apart this week.
The country mood now is so anti-GEMA I think they will not want to push this narrative any longer.
If BBI has it - it will fail in parliament or referendum.
So what remain with BBI - Prime Minister?
Baba is now stuck btw hard place and the rock.
Trying to appease both GEMA and NON_GEMA is not easy.
GEMA now have to decide - to go with Ruto or a pliable stooge like Kalonzo or support their own - and pray for re-run.
Raila had better run to the last bastion - the coast - or retreat to being a Luo King (back to 1997).
I think Mijikenda this time round are ready to cut off Joho and the Arabs of Mombasa and go alone.
The lameduck Uhuru is slowly going to discover that word has some meaning. CORONA is not helping.
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If you really know politics , you would detach it from emotions. Remember in 2002 Moi did the unthinkable and decided to push a Mt Kenya candidate.
Mt Kenya didnt want anything to do with Moi. To them Raila is the new Moi,Anywhere Raila is they will oppose be it the Formulae ,BBI etc
Unlike you who is driven by emotions and think blackmailing will do it. The Rutos are experienced and seasoned politicians , they know where and ehat matters and for this he will become Kenyas 5th President. When he made the statement he made he knew what Railas position was.Furthermore on the ground Mt Kenya know they are gaining nothing actually Its Western and Rift Valley gaining.
You also saw how emotional Orengo was. He insuated that Uhuru accesabilty was the reason the motion was defeated. Truth be said Uhuru is not selfish when national politics matters unless its personal business,Uhuru wouldnt mind which formulae goes through, he just wants a consesus and money to go to the counties. Raila on the other hand really wants to appease Mt Kenya so that BBI goes through.He knows it from 2010 experience He cant do it without Mt Kenya, meanwhile Ruto is watching from periphery however the outcome goes his will be just implementing it as the next President
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Very funny that you think you can teach me politics and dispassionate punditry.
You're all over the map.
Central (Mt Kenya or GEMA) have strong belief that they are more populous and contribute a lot to the economy and should benefit from it more.
This predates Uhuru or Kibaki - it's been that way for quite some time - 1950s.
Now lets discuss how we move from here.
I think that formulae (and BBI) has surely fall flat and GEMA main "propaganda" going forward will interesting.
If they insisting on pushing "One man One shilling" - they will raise the anti-GEMA (kikuyu) sentiments.
Now when it comes to players. Uhuru, Raila and Ruto...and the minnows.
Uhuru I believe doesn't really give a rat arse - he is going home.
It's really Uhuru orphans, Raila and Ruto to play the game.
Raila and Ruto are in catch 22 - they support GEMA - they lose Non-GEMA.
Raila is in difficult position. Uhuru orphans are promising him two birds in the bush and he is just about lost the bird he had. Coast will be his last.
Ruto has decided to go ahead and try to split GEMA - and get what he can get - or force Uhuru and orphans to run back to the negotiation table.
I think it's working well....but he has to be careful with GEMA "propaganda".
He need not hurt their feelings by telling them they are not really that popolus or that economic engine.
Uhuru and his orphans - are trying to stop Ruto invasion - and see if they can sell GEMA to highest bidder or use it to proper a stooge like Gideon or Kalonzo or most likely get their own candidate.
They having problem because GEMA people are not buying any BS with Raila.
Raila is becoming a liability, with BBI and handshake.
SO it very likely they will unload Raila NOW.
And try to win the masses back.
If you really know politics , you would detach it from emotions. Remember in 2002 Moi did the unthinkable and decided to push a Mt Kenya candidate.
Mt Kenya didnt want anything to do with Moi. To them Raila is the new Moi,Anywhere Raila is they will oppose be it the Formulae ,BBI etc
Unlike you who is driven by emotions and think blackmailing will do it. The Rutos are experienced and seasoned politicians , they know where and ehat matters and for this he will become Kenyas 5th President. When he made the statement he made he knew what Railas position was.Furthermore on the ground Mt Kenya know they are gaining nothing actually Its Western and Rift Valley gaining.
You also saw how emotional Orengo was. He insuated that Uhuru accesabilty was the reason the motion was defeated. Truth be said Uhuru is not selfish when national politics matters unless its personal business,Uhuru wouldnt mind which formulae goes through, he just wants a consesus and money to go to the counties. Raila on the other hand really wants to appease Mt Kenya so that BBI goes through.He knows it from 2010 experience He cant do it without Mt Kenya, meanwhile Ruto is watching from periphery however the outcome goes his will be just implementing it as the next President
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Very funny that you think you can teach me politics and dispassionate punditry.
You're all over the map.
Central (Mt Kenya or GEMA) have strong belief that they are more populous and contribute a lot to the economy and should benefit from it more.
This predates Uhuru or Kibaki - it's been that way for quite some time - 1950s.
Now lets discuss how we move from here.
I think that formulae (and BBI) has surely fall flat and GEMA main "propaganda" going forward will interesting.
If they insisting on pushing "One man One shilling" - they will raise the anti-GEMA (kikuyu) sentiments.
Now when it comes to players. Uhuru, Raila and Ruto...and the minnows.
Uhuru I believe doesn't really give a rat arse - he is going home.
It's really Uhuru orphans, Raila and Ruto to play the game.
Raila and Ruto are in catch 22 - they support GEMA - they lose Non-GEMA.
Raila is in difficult position. Uhuru orphans are promising him two birds in the bush and he is just about lost the bird he had. Coast will be his last.
Ruto has decided to go ahead and try to split GEMA - and get what he can get - or force Uhuru and orphans to run back to the negotiation table.
I think it's working well....but he has to be careful with GEMA "propaganda".
He need not hurt their feelings by telling them they are not really that popolus or that economic engine.
Uhuru and his orphans - are trying to stop Ruto invasion - and see if they can sell GEMA to highest bidder or use it to proper a stooge like Gideon or Kalonzo or most likely get their own candidate.
They having problem because GEMA people are not buying any BS with Raila.
Raila is becoming a liability, with BBI and handshake.
SO it very likely they will unload Raila NOW.
And try to win the masses back.
If you really know politics , you would detach it from emotions. Remember in 2002 Moi did the unthinkable and decided to push a Mt Kenya candidate.
Mt Kenya didnt want anything to do with Moi. To them Raila is the new Moi,Anywhere Raila is they will oppose be it the Formulae ,BBI etc
Unlike you who is driven by emotions and think blackmailing will do it. The Rutos are experienced and seasoned politicians , they know where and ehat matters and for this he will become Kenyas 5th President. When he made the statement he made he knew what Railas position was.Furthermore on the ground Mt Kenya know they are gaining nothing actually Its Western and Rift Valley gaining.
You also saw how emotional Orengo was. He insuated that Uhuru accesabilty was the reason the motion was defeated. Truth be said Uhuru is not selfish when national politics matters unless its personal business,Uhuru wouldnt mind which formulae goes through, he just wants a consesus and money to go to the counties. Raila on the other hand really wants to appease Mt Kenya so that BBI goes through.He knows it from 2010 experience He cant do it without Mt Kenya, meanwhile Ruto is watching from periphery however the outcome goes his will be just implementing it as the next President
Where you get it wrong is thinking Rutos strategy is going at it without Mt Kenya.
Rutos calculation is maintain RV Mt Kenya and North Eastern and eat into Western and Coast.
Railas strategy is destroy Jubilee ensure a Referendum and restructure Kenyan politics .Well Ruto has been very strategic maintaing status quo in Jubilee strongholds till around two years to elections is not that easy.
He only needs to manage Railas strategy because at the end wither way will only benefit him.
As for you its evident from the posts you think intimidation will make Mt Kenya vote for Ruto. No intimidation only does the opposite.
Study Ruto carefully snd you will notice the way he is playing politics. If you notice even people around Ruto realised years ago intimidation is not the route.
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Pundit your war mongering inuedos will push pro Ruto people in mt. Kenya away. You are a bad strategist Ruto is wiser than you by far.
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You sound like want Kalenjin to walk on top of eggs to please you. Hii ni deni mnalipa. You can either pay or not.
Pundit your war mongering inuedos will push pro Ruto people in mt. Kenya away. You are a bad strategist Ruto is wiser than you by far.
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You're a cartoon reading your own things.
I have said several times Ruto strategy is like you allege - plan A - is to go with Mt Kenya - either as whole or a faction.
Raila plan is indeed to destroy Jubilee - which he has achieved - and to destroy NASA - basically to re-arrange the deck
Raila plan is to create a new "BBI" coalition and use it for PORK.
GEMA have 4 options - Ruto, Raila, their own fresh candidate or another stooge like Kalonzo.
Anyway, two years, still a long way to go.
It look very likely 2022 will be splintered so much - it will be settled in a run off election.
I see nearly every community fronting their candidate - and hoping to cut post-election deal.
Where you get it wrong is thinking Rutos strategy is going at it without Mt Kenya.
Rutos calculation is maintain RV Mt Kenya and North Eastern and eat into Western and Coast.
Railas strategy is destroy Jubilee ensure a Referendum and restructure Kenyan politics .Well Ruto has been very strategic maintaing status quo in Jubilee strongholds till around two years to elections is not that easy.
He only needs to manage Railas strategy because at the end wither way will only benefit him.
As for you its evident from the posts you think intimidation will make Mt Kenya vote for Ruto. No intimidation only does the opposite.
Study Ruto carefully snd you will notice the way he is playing politics. If you notice even people around Ruto realised years ago intimidation is not the route.
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BBI has been killed by covid - which of course has also killed 200+ Kenyans, millions of jobs - and exposed Ruto to Uhuru machinery in Jubilee and parliament.
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I doubt it was meant to live. It hard to reconcile gema and non-gema difference on many issues. You cannot satisfy both that easily. Only a war like scenario of 2007 can lead to compromise.
BBI has been killed by covid - which of course has also killed 200+ Kenyans, millions of jobs - and exposed Ruto to Uhuru machinery in Jubilee and parliament.
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We might never know that now. This revenue thing led by Kang'ata seems to be GEMA leveraging handshake- and the parliamentary realignments points to some form of non-referendum BBI in the offing. GEMA seem want to change revenue formula as condition to allow more devolution. If the one man-one shilling is defeated expect Uhuru to kill BBI. Notice how Uhuru got all chairman in JLAC, CIOC, etc. Raila will continue to make pro-GEMA noises of course :) - which is the smart thing to do. Dealing GEMA for Pwani is no-brainer.
I doubt it was meant to live. It hard to reconcile gema and non-gema difference on many issues. You cannot satisfy both that easily. Only a war like scenario of 2007 can lead to compromise.
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Pundit no GEMA politician agrees with Ruto nor fight Uhuru on this one. Not even Kihika with 40% Kalenjin safety net. Except small professor of Tharaka with tiny population. Ruto is cutting his losses in Mt Kenya.
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Ruto is showing leadership. Raila either way will be hated - both by Gema and Non-GEMA. Whatever Raila does - he won't be loved by GEMA - unless he wakes up and declare another Kikuyu Tosha.
As for Ruto - Gema see him as lesser devil compared to Raila - and there is the 1m hostage situation in RV - so both contribute to sticking together for better or worse.
Raila is going to end like Kalonzo - he will lose Pwani and GEMA will still blame him.
Pundit no GEMA politician agrees with Ruto nor fight Uhuru on this one. Not even Kihika with 40% Kalenjin safety net. Except small professor of Tharaka with tiny population. Ruto is cutting his losses in Mt Kenya.
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You sound like want Kalenjin to walk on top of eggs to please you. Hii ni deni mnalipa. You can either pay or not.
Pundit your war mongering inuedos will push pro Ruto people in mt. Kenya away. You are a bad strategist Ruto is wiser than you by far.
Deni ni ya wa kikuyu kulipa we are distinct from them. What Am saying like nowahaya and majority kikuyu is pro ruto sana but if you go on war path you antagonize them for nothing. Learn do diffenrentiate land injustice and other things
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I am not looking for any votes. Hii ni kazi ya ruto kubembeleza watu. I am just analysing politricks.
Deni ni ya wa kikuyu kulipa we are distinct from them. What Am saying like nowahaya and majority kikuyu is pro ruto sana but if you go on war path you antagonize them for nothing. Learn do diffenrentiate land injustice and other things
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You're a cartoon reading your own things.
I have said several times Ruto strategy is like you allege - plan A - is to go with Mt Kenya - either as whole or a faction.
Raila plan is indeed to destroy Jubilee - which he has achieved - and to destroy NASA - basically to re-arrange the deck
Raila plan is to create a new "BBI" coalition and use it for PORK.
GEMA have 4 options - Ruto, Raila, their own fresh candidate or another stooge like Kalonzo.
Anyway, two years, still a long way to go.
It look very likely 2022 will be splintered so much - it will be settled in a run off election.
I see nearly every community fronting their candidate - and hoping to cut post-election deal.
Where you get it wrong is thinking Rutos strategy is going at it without Mt Kenya.
Rutos calculation is maintain RV Mt Kenya and North Eastern and eat into Western and Coast.
Railas strategy is destroy Jubilee ensure a Referendum and restructure Kenyan politics .Well Ruto has been very strategic maintaing status quo in Jubilee strongholds till around two years to elections is not that easy.
He only needs to manage Railas strategy because at the end wither way will only benefit him.
As for you its evident from the posts you think intimidation will make Mt Kenya vote for Ruto. No intimidation only does the opposite.
Study Ruto carefully snd you will notice the way he is playing politics. If you notice even people around Ruto realised years ago intimidation is not the route.
Ive been following you for a long time, I would be unfair to state in 2013 and 2017 you got it right almost to 99% as for 2022 either youve lost it or its the emotions. Emotions have never won elections. Just put a case study of Ruto.He knew as from 90s he was going to be Kenyan President .after 2018 handshake we adviced him focus on the goal, as they say win the war not the battle, personally I think he has manged it well. If it was Raila he would have waged a full out wrestling match.
You can attest from this post you start out well in you analysis then conclude badly.Kenyan politics is not about post election coalitions. Taila though 2013 would go that way and he was really dissapointed.
Rutos plan as is is to win against Raila, If Raila decides not to vie in 2022 then it will destabilize Rutos plan. As it stands Raila will vie.He is being pushed by the Orengos et all coz if he doesnt then alot of political careers go to the drain.
Ruto is the president in waiting forget the noises from Nyanza electorate who still believe since 1969 they have a chance of leading Kenya.Those noises will still continue even 100 years to come
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Pundit no GEMA politician agrees with Ruto nor fight Uhuru on this one. Not even Kihika with 40% Kalenjin safety net. Except small professor of Tharaka with tiny population. Ruto is cutting his losses in Mt Kenya.
You amaze me so few weeks ago Ruto didnt have the numbers but now he is winning .....
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Pundit your war mongering inuedos will push pro Ruto people in mt. Kenya away. You are a bad strategist Ruto is wiser than you by far.
You use a few words and hit the nail in its head. You are talented
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I am not looking for any votes. Hii ni kazi ya ruto kubembeleza watu. I am just analysing politricks.
Deni ni ya wa kikuyu kulipa we are distinct from them. What Am saying like nowahaya and majority kikuyu is pro ruto sana but if you go on war path you antagonize them for nothing. Learn do diffenrentiate land injustice and other things
And thats why you are not Ruto.....
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You're not doing 360 analysis. You need to analyse GEMA and Uhuru possible moves. The way I see unless Uhuru and Ruto reconcile. GEMA will split. Some will go with Uhuru or his orphans. Some will with Ruto - this well known group around Mwangi Kiunjuri. This is already Plan B for Ruto. Plan A was for Uhuru to back him fully.
Now what does Uhuru and his 'deep state' do. Option one reconcile with Ruto and try save face if Mt Kenya people refuses to detach from Ruto.
Option 2 - I call this Pajero option - they pick a half decent GEMA upstart like Peter Keneth or Kimunya - and go full thruttle - probably try make a deal with Gusii with Matiangi- and aim for 2nd position - with likes of Eugene and the usual pliable folks.
Option 3 - they back Raila - I find this the improbable and not an option.
Option 4 - they go for non-gema upstart - matiangi, gideon, kalonzo, even maDVD again - this Kibaki Prof's Wanjohi 2012 playbook. I also find it improbable.
Raila option - BBI - and try to go for PORK - and try to get GEMA to go for Exec PM. Option 2 is to go back to ODM - pick Joho as running mater- and go for it again - and hope he will get into 2nd run-off contest - where Gema deep state will back him against Ruto.
I don't think Raila will entertain anything else except PORK.
If you check the game the way it is - it more than likely nobody will get 50% plus one - unless Jubilee is stitched back :) to what it was.
That leaves us with interesting run-off scenario. The game turns from winning - to become either no 1 or no 2 - and then entering post-run-off-election coalition.
Assume we get position where Raila is no 3 - Ruto is facing Deep State upstart. That will make for interesting decision. Raila, Kalonzo, MaDVD and whoever has 5-10% will be getting serious deals.
Ive been following you for a long time, I would be unfair to state in 2013 and 2017 you got it right almost to 99% as for 2022 either youve lost it or its the emotions. Emotions have never won elections. Just put a case study of Ruto.He knew as from 90s he was going to be Kenyan President .after 2018 handshake we adviced him focus on the goal, as they say win the war not the battle, personally I think he has manged it well. If it was Raila he would have waged a full out wrestling match.
You can attest from this post you start out well in you analysis then conclude badly.Kenyan politics is not about post election coalitions. Taila though 2013 would go that way and he was really dissapointed.
Rutos plan as is is to win against Raila, If Raila decides not to vie in 2022 then it will destabilize Rutos plan. As it stands Raila will vie.He is being pushed by the Orengos et all coz if he doesnt then alot of political careers go to the drain.
Ruto is the president in waiting forget the noises from Nyanza electorate who still believe since 1969 they have a chance of leading Kenya.Those noises will still continue even 100 years to come
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Pundit no GEMA politician agrees with Ruto nor fight Uhuru on this one. Not even Kihika with 40% Kalenjin safety net. Except small professor of Tharaka with tiny population. Ruto is cutting his losses in Mt Kenya.
You amaze me so few weeks ago Ruto didnt have the numbers but now he is winning .....
Winning what exactly?
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Pundit - that lots of options in your analysis - I don't see it. Mdvd and Kalonzo may be delusional enough to run for PORK again - 2007 and 2013 failed to knock sense into them - but they will retire in big anti-climax. Raila and Ruto are the only viable candidates - every Wanjiku knows this. That's why they are struggling to tether their tiny flocks - as Kibwana and Malalas defy them. Kalonzo as usual is angling for katikati Handshake or GEMA candidate. But noone will back the 8% joke and Raila will bag the governors. If Kalonzo runs he will wind up with half Kamba.
Mdvd the other fool is angling to be Ruto runningmate - which is pipedream. He will be forced to run solo with Savula as campaign manager - all Malalas, Oparanyas, Barasas, Khalwales are with Ruto or Raila. Even Kioni cannot agree to be Mdvd runningmate again. :) He will get half Vihiga. But scorned Luhya will break for Raila who has the most influencers in Luhya ground.
I wonder why you have entirely discarded influencers? Kingi or Jumwa will not run for PORK but will back Raila or Ruto. Same as Gusii, Maa, Somali, etc - that determines who bags most non-GEMA. Who of the two kahuna has more influencers? Raila with Uhuru backing picks a PK stooge as runningmate. Ruto picks MK. GEMA splits. Non- GEMA scramble will depend on influencers.
Uhuruto nicked it in round 1 despite Mdvd. There is equally no serious 3rd horse this time.
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A lot really depend on GEMA. That is where you should focus on. They have 4 options. Ruto. Their own. Their stooge and lastly Raila. Within Gema itself there is no unity - there is huge split.
Raila health is also now an issue.
As for utlity players like maDVD, Kalonzo and the likes they are playing.
Pwani - watch Joho - but don't forget he is not a mijikenda - if Amason Kingi and Kwale governor merge - Joho will be left with swahilis and mombasa luos - doa.
I believe Amason Kingi is driving the formation of Coast Party. For Ruto his strategy for Coast, Luhya and Gusii is the same - if he cannot get it - Raila should not get it.
Pundit - that lots of options in your analysis - I don't see it. Mdvd and Kalonzo may be delusional enough to run for PORK again - 2007 and 2013 failed to knock sense into them - but they will retire in big anti-climax. Raila and Ruto are the only viable candidates - every Wanjiku knows this. That's why they are struggling to tether their tiny flocks - as Kibwana and Malalas defy them. Kalonzo as usual is angling for katikati Handshake or GEMA candidate. But noone will back the 8% joke and Raila will bag the governors. If Kalonzo runs he will wind up with half Kamba.
Mdvd the other fool is angling to be Ruto runningmate - which is pipedream. He will be forced to run solo with Savula as campaign manager - all Malalas, Oparanyas, Barasas, Khalwales are with Ruto or Raila. Even Kioni cannot agree to be Mdvd runningmate again. :) He will get half Vihiga. But scorned Luhya will break for Raila who has the most influencers in Luhya ground.
I wonder why you have entirely discarded influencers? Kingi or Jumwa will not run for PORK but will back Raila or Ruto. Same as Gusii, Maa, Somali, etc - that determines who bags most non-GEMA. Who of the two kahuna has more influencers? Raila with Uhuru backing picks a PK stooge as runningmate. Ruto picks MK. GEMA splits. Non- GEMA scramble will depend on influencers.
Uhuruto nicked it in round 1 despite Mdvd. There is equally no serious 3rd horse this time.
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Pundit no GEMA politician agrees with Ruto nor fight Uhuru on this one. Not even Kihika with 40% Kalenjin safety net. Except small professor of Tharaka with tiny population. Ruto is cutting his losses in Mt Kenya.
You amaze me so few weeks ago Ruto didnt have the numbers but now he is winning .....
Winning what exactly?
All RV senators voted with Mt Kenya , with exception of Kindiki and Murkomen. So Ruto is also cutting losses in RV. The wishful thinking exhibited by ODM supporters is their downfall. If we were to use the same logic so All Coast senators who voted against the debate are now Pro Ruto ?
Rutos stand was clear come with a win win formulae. Weeks ago you were rejoicing saying Ruto had no numbers , we told the bare truth Nominated Senators and Kanu senators made the purge in Jubilee possible.
Its now clear party politics is different from senate/parliament poltics and also different from national politics. Its eveident a combination of Uhuru and Raila could not influence a senate outcome this should be awakening call that national politics is very different .you saw Nyanza voting with Mt Kenya do you expect that in 2022 ?