Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Higgins the genius on April 09, 2020, 10:37:50 PM
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Uhuru is taking JP through back door. The 7 days lapses on Easter Monday.
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Ruto has various parties registered - United Green Movement, Tangatanga Party, Kuria party, Kiunjuri party. Etc.
Issue is how to herd his flock there without losing half of them in the wilderness. Unlike UDM pastoralist party - a national following is hard to maintain while battling the machinery. Murky affairs.
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Where are Garliv and Pundit? I been telling them Ruto nyokonyoko will get him nowhere. He can run to party tribunal and then high court - all tough luck - or brave corvid and hold demos in Eldoret. :) Meantime his fake consults with Uhuru are laughing stock.
Even the blonde Plato correctly predicted this story.
Angry Ruto protests 'illegal' Jubilee coup
(https://mobile.nation.co.ke/image/view/-/5520686/medRes/2597899/-/u8pmoa/-/jubpic.jpg?mrf-size=m)
https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Ruto-protests-illegal-Jubilee-coup/3126390-5520684-gffkdx/index.html
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This(covid-19 season) seems like a bad time to be on the receiving end. It's really an easy time for an autocracy to take hold.
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(https://roselinlin.com/image_cache/resize/335x445/image/catalog/product/2019-01-28/S9DB10-V2W2-HG2L4BPBLN-1548667259895.png) Very appropriate ad in that story. Washed, hanged and left to dry. LaundroMat.
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This(covid-19 season) seems like a bad time to be on the receiving end. It's really an easy time for an autocracy to take hold.
Indeed. Ruto groupies can't meet due to the pandemic. They cannot call for demos. They don't subscribe to the rule of law and will not go to court. Worse is Ruto's positioning of Uhurutopia - just 2 days ago he told us they consult on a daily basis. They are merely social distancing :) He is back to UDM - Tuju is the new ole Kamwaro. Murathe never left :)
Ruto is caged. Uhuru has the party. If Ruto decamps to a new party - there is high risk of lack of traction esp on the mountain. If he takes Uhuru head-on then it becomes Ruto vs Uhuru in Central. Raila couldn't be happier.
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Chama ina wenyewe
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Robina,
I personally have never refuted that Uhuru is fighting Ruto and is dead set to have him out in the cold. I have always maintained Uhuru is serious in pursuing his mad schemes with RAO to him take PM position. Pundit have at times stated that Uhuru is playing RAO while other times he seem to take it seriously.
Anyhow, struggle to have full control of Jubilee Party has been ongoing. And now it's obviously in the open (if it wasn't). Technically it changes nothing. Split lines are as usual. It is just another rung in the battle to have Uhuru/RAO install themselves in power and kick out (or isolate) Ruto. The ground remain as before coronavirus. Nothing changed.
If there are any changes in dynamics they shall be clearer AFTER Corona.
We also should appreciate that in Kenya political parties are formed and disbanded or go into comatose as situation demands. Right now only ODM has been at least a force since 2007/08 while others have withered. With Ruto/Uhuru political split, Jubilee will be very different at the end of it all.
Where are Garliv and Pundit? I been telling them Ruto nyokonyoko will get him nowhere. He can run to party tribunal and then high court - all tough luck - or brave corvid and hold demos in Eldoret. :) Meantime his fake consults with Uhuru are laughing stock.
Even the blonde Plato correctly predicted this story.
Angry Ruto protests 'illegal' Jubilee coup
(https://mobile.nation.co.ke/image/view/-/5520686/medRes/2597899/-/u8pmoa/-/jubpic.jpg?mrf-size=m)
https://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Ruto-protests-illegal-Jubilee-coup/3126390-5520684-gffkdx/index.html
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Problem is that Corona is not going away any time soon. So is Pundit still seeing the way UK is playing Rao with this thing?
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I bought a Covid-19 gave Ruto reprieve
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Corona may be around for awhile but soon or later people have to get back to "normal life..." If you have relatives/friends/workers/neighbours/acquaintances You'd notice that they have been sending appeals for help and the frequency is gaining urgency. And even yourself would be running out of funds to sustain staying indoors further. Facts of life such as hunger and lack of income will force reopening of normal life.
That aside, for politics, I think Uhuru/RAO are utilizing this three-quarter lockdown to tie loose ends. After all they have the machinery and DP Ruto is clearly the outsider. Therefore for now it is difficult to challenge such decision in courts or tribunal. After all, kuna "social distancing" and restricted travels. Politically politicians aligned with Ruto Team can only issue statements from their homes and ALONE. Any meeting of more than 10 people is problematic.
Yes, Uhuru group is executing a coup in Jubilee. Irregularly to say the least.
Problem is that Corona is not going away any time soon. So is Pundit still seeing the way UK is playing Rao with this thing?
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The main question is how Uhuru benefits from control of Jubilee because simply if Ruto was to use another party simply all his supporters will go with him just like baba if today he dumped ODM and went to another party all supporters would decamp with him. Parties in Kenya are useless as they lack permanent ideology and are just temporary channels for power. KIbaki was elected by narc second term pnu and so far so forth. I dont see any big deal ruto just needs to stay focused and calm and calculating at the same time. In mt.kenya he commands about 75-80% of voters.
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The main question is how Uhuru benefits from control of Jubilee because simply if Ruto was to use another party simply all his supporters will go with him just like baba if today he dumped ODM and went to another party all supporters would decamp with him. Parties in Kenya are useless as they lack permanent ideology and are just temporary channels for power. KIbaki was elected by narc second term pnu and so far so forth. I dont see any big deal ruto just needs to stay focused and calm and calculating at the same time. In mt.kenya he commands about 75-80% of voters.
Ruto needs an intact GEMA voting block to be with him to win. Raila just needs a 12% of GEMA to be with him to win.
Ruto must have a foothold in Central using a party with grassroots connections. 70% of MPS wont get reelected but the 30% that remains will the ones that will deny ruto a chance to be elected
I not even sure if Ruto will continue fighting the state anymore. He will may as well fold and wait for 2027
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Its would be foolhardy for Ruto to throw in the towel now precisely this is what the BBI Team wants. It would be cheap, Ruto has to stay put in government till election time 2022 no matter what because this way he will be like a monkey on the elites back they cant shake him off. He has gained lots of support even in coastal/ukambani areas this persecution of ruto has only gained him sympathizers, before Atwoli can finish a coherent sentence( Ruto gains more followers. Dont under estimate the power of playing or appearing to be a victim. The 20- 25% that he might lack in mt. Kenya will be compensated elsewhere easily and mark you Even with Uhurus backing Baba will max out at most 20% kwa mlima. Without him backing baba will fizzle at usual 2%
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100% in agreement. Ruto should hang on and knows which battle to fight and which ones to ignore. He should ignore taking over of Jubilee; and strategise accordingly.
It must be getting into Uhuru nerves that somehow Mt. Kenya is still adamantly Pro-Ruto. He and his group don't seem to understand why that is so.
Its would be foolhardy for Ruto to throw in the towel now precisely this is what the BBI Team wants. It would be cheap, Ruto has to stay put in government till election time 2022 no matter what because this way he will be like a monkey on the elites back they cant shake him off. He has gained lots of support even in coastal/ukambani areas this persecution of ruto has only gained him sympathizers, before Atwoli can finish a coherent sentence( Ruto gains more followers. Dont under estimate the power of playing or appearing to be a victim. The 20- 25% that he might lack in mt. Kenya will be compensated elsewhere easily and mark you Even with Uhurus backing Baba will max out at most 20% kwa mlima. Without him backing baba will fizzle at usual 2%
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If Ruto was planning to decamp, he would have done so long ago. Right now, he has very few options because crossing back to his old party will disorganize his Mt Kenya MPs. It's possible that crossing over will expose the idea of his numbers being all that.
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If Ruto was planning to decamp, he would have done so long ago. Right now, he has very few options because crossing back to his old party will disorganize his Mt Kenya MPs. It's possible that crossing over will expose the idea of his numbers being all that.
This is the heart of the matter. For that same reason Raila maintains a stranglehold on ODM: the Luo would migrate with him but how about the Luhya and the Mijikenda? Diverse parties - with extra-tribal blocks - are tough to maintain. Jubilee is a COALITION - same as NARC or the 2007-8 ODM. Any attempt to ship off to a new party - is tempting fate - and it fizzles into URP.
Corona is a wild card. Feeble minded Wanjiku sees too much of Mutahi Kagwe and that is risky - or a boon - depending on one's persuasion.
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Uhuru hangers on are just stupid and reckless. With corona hurricane that will ruin the economy, their personal fortunes, they are still angling for fights with Ruto. Super idiots will be lucky to come out of the economical effects of corona leave alone political tsunami they are courting.
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Pundit lost his dad a few days ago. Pray for him and cut him some slack.
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Pundit lost his dad a few days ago. Pray for him and cut him some slack.
Godspeed. am sure he will be back with a bang like Tuju.
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Pundit lost his dad a few days ago. Pray for him and cut him some slack.
Pole sana. Losing close family back to back is a nightmare.
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Pole sana to Pundit. Didn't know he lost his dad. Sincere condolences
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Robina, Yes Ruto has to be thinking of plan B by now. The deadline for 'quitting' Jubilee was basically March 2020 when party elections to replace interim officials didn't happen. Uhuru has been playing cold and hot - I think he conceded to calling Jubilee PG before Corona or Tuju got injured but It's becoming increasingly clear he needs another party now.
The issues are how to 'quit' Jubilee with GEMA onboard and technicalities of not quitting gov or parliamentary system - so I expect to see a lot of stalling and infighting - until 2022.
Uhuru will not dare call for party meetings or elections or anything because he is outnumbered...so basically it will be intrigues at Jubilee HQ, courts and nasty media fights.
The best way to quit Jubilee is to form a bigger coalition - and quit in guise.
Jubilee brand has been dragged through mud by Uhuru fumbling second-term legacy. Ruto should see this as an opportunity to distance himself from Jubilee 2.0 disaster.
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Pole sana Pundit for losing your dad. Be comforted.
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Robina, Yes Ruto has to be thinking of plan B by now. The deadline for 'quitting' Jubilee was basically March 2020 when party elections to replace interim officials didn't happen. Uhuru has been playing cold and hot - I think he conceded to calling Jubilee PG before Corona or Tuju got injured but It's becoming increasingly clear he needs another party now.
The issues are how to 'quit' Jubilee with GEMA onboard and technicalities of not quitting gov or parliamentary system - so I expect to see a lot of stalling and infighting - until 2022.
Uhuru will not dare call for party meetings or elections or anything because he is outnumbered...so basically it will be intrigues at Jubilee HQ, courts and nasty media fights.
The best way to quit Jubilee is to form a bigger coalition - and quit in guise.
Jubilee brand has been dragged through mud by Uhuru fumbling second-term legacy. Ruto should see this as an opportunity to distance himself from Jubilee 2.0 disaster.
Yeah this is Ruto big headache. Uhuru has gone real tribal with appointments and handouts to appease Gema and youth. It very risky for Ruto to ship out due to folks stalling or cold feet. Likes of Kiraitu seem bought n paid for. The chance of Ruto holding onto Gema is very slim.
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Pundit do you spot a Kagwe factor?
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Pundit do you spot a Kagwe factor?
kingereza mingi didnt make him a governor..
..he is nothing new..he was minister under Kibaki.He need to win over two MCAs like Waiguru is attempting.Siasa yakenya sio rahisi hivyo.Waiguru can catwalk n talk English but kirinyaga nobody cares about that...only 2% care about his well spokenness
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Robina, Yes Ruto has to be thinking of plan B by now. The deadline for 'quitting' Jubilee was basically March 2020 when party elections to replace interim officials didn't happen. Uhuru has been playing cold and hot - I think he conceded to calling Jubilee PG before Corona or Tuju got injured but It's becoming increasingly clear he needs another party now.
The issues are how to 'quit' Jubilee with GEMA onboard and technicalities of not quitting gov or parliamentary system - so I expect to see a lot of stalling and infighting - until 2022.
Uhuru will not dare call for party meetings or elections or anything because he is outnumbered...so basically it will be intrigues at Jubilee HQ, courts and nasty media fights.
The best way to quit Jubilee is to form a bigger coalition - and quit in guise.
Jubilee brand has been dragged through mud by Uhuru fumbling second-term legacy. Ruto should see this as an opportunity to distance himself from Jubilee 2.0 disaster.
Yeah this is Ruto big headache. Uhuru has gone real tribal with appointments and handouts to appease Gema and youth. It very risky for Ruto to ship out due to folks stalling or cold feet. Likes of Kiraitu seem bought n paid for. The chance of Ruto holding onto Gema is very slim.
if the list circulating that Ruto has 150 jubilee mps and senators while Uhuru has 50 is true then Ruto is far ahead of the curve.Uhuru first need to ammend katiba otherwise we are wasting time analysising things that may never happen
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Robina, Yes Ruto has to be thinking of plan B by now. The deadline for 'quitting' Jubilee was basically March 2020 when party elections to replace interim officials didn't happen. Uhuru has been playing cold and hot - I think he conceded to calling Jubilee PG before Corona or Tuju got injured but It's becoming increasingly clear he needs another party now.
The issues are how to 'quit' Jubilee with GEMA onboard and technicalities of not quitting gov or parliamentary system - so I expect to see a lot of stalling and infighting - until 2022.
Uhuru will not dare call for party meetings or elections or anything because he is outnumbered...so basically it will be intrigues at Jubilee HQ, courts and nasty media fights.
The best way to quit Jubilee is to form a bigger coalition - and quit in guise.
Jubilee brand has been dragged through mud by Uhuru fumbling second-term legacy. Ruto should see this as an opportunity to distance himself from Jubilee 2.0 disaster.
Yeah this is Ruto big headache. Uhuru has gone real tribal with appointments and handouts to appease Gema and youth. It very risky for Ruto to ship out due to folks stalling or cold feet. Likes of Kiraitu seem bought n paid for. The chance of Ruto holding onto Gema is very slim.
if the list circulating that Ruto has 150 jubilee mps and senators while Uhuru has 50 is true then Ruto is far ahead of the curve.Uhuru first need to ammend katiba otherwise we are wasting time analysising things that may never happen
Yeah pandemic has thrown things into a spin. BBI 2 particularly is in limbo unless pandemic ends soon. Good for Ruto. For Raila lockdown gives Uhuru monopoly of mischief - to evict Ruto from JP and prop Kagwes.
Covid is a wild card bigger than referendum. If it lasts a year we might have a very different playing field.
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Who moved his cheese?
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Who moved his cheese?
Not even sewerage land is safe with this guy :-[ .