Kiunjuri is a non starter bana,get some work to do
Pundit and Kiunjuri cannot stop reggae
https://www.kenyamoja.com/video/watch-how-president-uhuru-kenyatta-enjoyed-himself-during-ub40-concert-carnivore-rt-kenya
(https://afromaisha.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/images-3.jpg)
Uhuru meeting only vetted people..afraid to be heckledhttps://kenyatalk.s3.amazonaws.com/2020/02/348149_0c53643ab0dfab33747511a0737bcc63.jpg
Tangatanga freeloaders want credit for GoK goodies - they are being chased like dogs. As usual they deflect the blame to governors... no rat can bell the cat :)
Roadside pronouncement are not goodies. He can even mpesa every kikuyu 10k but as long as he is selling Raila, Handshake and BBI - they will tell him to go to hell. That is the bottomline. Now kibicho is so afraid they will be heckled they have chiefs vetting people attending Uhuru events.
Pundit no Handshake or Kieleweke MPs bother with Ruto meetings. But Tangatanga have to be locked out or chased - with a whip! - from Uhuru meetings. Discuss :)
Mps attends a presidential or state function. That has always been a given - even in opposition zones. They are not political meetings. If Uhuru wants to attend political rallies - they should make it very clear - like Uhuru set to attend Kieleweke rally . You're so young & naive you need to go back to 80s and 90s - and deal with these basic stuff.
I am young and naive because I don't support Ruto :) Tangatanga need the "tuko pamoja" charade for fear of alienating Mt Kenya. Uhuru is making that so difficult by dragging them screaming and kicking out of his meetings. As you expect they blame Kimemia or Kinyanjui or Waiguru - this time Jezebel get a pass - anyone and anything but Uhuru.
From a mere option - Mt Kenya is now a MUST-WIN for Ruto. No mistake can be allowed. Expect all implausible spins - as chiefs and cops whip people out of meetings - and Kibicho or governor get blamed.Mps attends a presidential or state function. That has always been a given - even in opposition zones. They are not political meetings. If Uhuru wants to attend political rallies - they should make it very clear - like Uhuru set to attend Kieleweke rally . You're so young & naive you need to go back to 80s and 90s - and deal with these basic stuff.
You're evidently so young and naive - because there are so many Raila supporters we have seen over the years - but none as young and naive as you're. There are things that are given - stuff we debated and finished in 90s. We are not going to discuss Chiefs and politics now. It ridiculous.
Mt kenya is not a must win for Ruto. It depend on the scenarios. For 50% - yes. For a re-run - NO.
Now talking of Raila.If NASA remain broken - and Raila doesn't manage to re-built it - then he is even bad position.
Mt kenya will not vote for Raila soon.
So Ruto has to know who he is competing with and under what system. If the status quo remain - his best bet is to stick with Kiunjuri - and slice off huge portion of GEMA - and attempt 50% or a re-run.
If we go parliamentary - then game shift to sponsoring as many MPs as possible - and hoping they win - and then entering coalitions with someone with a 20-30mps. Ruto is like a fish under water in getting Mps. Raila is used to big podium politics and has no energy to get mp - you need to identify and sponsor people early enough.
This scenario is new in the world - people were stopped by Moi from holding their own Kamukunjis. Noone had to be kicked out of Moi meetings with nyahunyo. Likes of Karua walked out on Moi. Tangatanga desperation is new phenomenon.
About history - Ruto is not the first nor last VP to be hanged. It a long list - Jaramogi, Murumbi, Kibaki, Karanja, Saitoti, Kalonzo. Even the statistics don't defy your spin. Only smart but humble Moi and Kibaki made it - Ruto is nothing like them hence his dismal chance.
BBI has solidifed non-Gema around Raila. Ruto no longer even bother with Gusii or Pwani after it fizzled out to one Jumwa or Joash Maang'i. BBI double-edged sword will leave him with Kalenjin and in Mt Kenya vs Uhuru. Even with 100% Gema he has tough luck. Now imagine he has to face Uhuru in Mt Kenya. It a redux of Jubilee 2013 without Uhuru. URP.
Kiunjuri is a non-issue. Same as PK or Karua or Waiguru. Kiunjuri need to run for PORK - or PM - and Ruto maybe go slow and give him space. These Kurias and Nyoros should be praising Kiunjuri as great leader :) I am surprised am teaching you basics: folks don't follow a follower. He can't follower Ruto all over and attract following. Gema is Uhuru vs Ruto.You're evidently so young and naive - because there are so many Raila supporters we have seen over the years - but none as young and naive as you're. There are things that are given - stuff we debated and finished in 90s. We are not going to discuss Chiefs and politics now. It ridiculous.
Mt kenya is not a must win for Ruto. It depend on the scenarios. For 50% - yes. For a re-run - NO.
Now talking of Raila.If NASA remain broken - and Raila doesn't manage to re-built it - then he is even bad position.
Mt kenya will not vote for Raila soon.
So Ruto has to know who he is competing with and under what system. If the status quo remain - his best bet is to stick with Kiunjuri - and slice off huge portion of GEMA - and attempt 50% or a re-run.
If we go parliamentary - then game shift to sponsoring as many MPs as possible - and hoping they win - and then entering coalitions with someone with a 20-30mps. Ruto is like a fish under water in getting Mps. Raila is used to big podium politics and has no energy to get mp - you need to identify and sponsor people early enough.
You cannot purport to teach me politics when you're learning on the go. Kiunjuri and GEMA have a deal they are keen to honour. What worked in 90s don't know now. The deal with Ruto is what GEMA are keen to fulfill and Kiunjuri will fulfill that. He cannot pretend to do a kamikaze run like Moses Kuria run to nowhere.
Which MCAs - the ones who hanged Waititu?
You're not credible: for example is Uhurutopia intact or not? You can't own up to such a plain fact so why should we take you seriously?
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1223521622432387072&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytrends.co.ke%2Fjournalists-members-of-the-public-chased-out-of-uhurus-function-in-kirinyaga%2FUPDATE: Journalists denied entry into President Uhuru Kenyatta's public baraza at Wang'uru stadium in Kirinyaga county. Members of the public who are not on the chiefs' lists have also been locked out. pic.twitter.com/40tzUcx03J
— NTV Kenya (@ntvkenya) February 1, 2020
Pundit it funny how Uhurutopia is not over until it's over despite all the signs. I could regurgitate all the events but no need. But "the ground is hostile" on what evidence? Show us at least a video of raia being vetted. Such a thing would be all over YouTube like that Moses Kuria manhandled in Kitui meme. The only evidence we have is Ruto MPs being forcefully ejected from Uhuru meetings. Apparently he is so unpopular they are dying for photo ops with him. You are arguing just for sakes to concede nothing.
Ruto cannot dare a direct confrontation with Uhuru for an obvious reason : he would alienate Mt Kenya. Otherwise ALL REDLINES HAVE BEEN CROSSED. He is not consulted, his crew been fired or demoted, his minions been hammered or impeached, he himself been locked out of official meetings and his official house in Mombasa. Is there a new redline I missed?
Your spin is overboard now. You don't make sense. There is no "ground following" for Ruto in Mt Kenya. The governors and most senators have abandoned him. Nay even most MCAs. Only mlolongo MPs are with Tangatanga. Rigged in folks don't represent the ground. Not even Kiunjuri can dare attack Uhuru directly instead Raila caused the rain. No rat can bell the cat.
Talk is Cheap. Like BBI - that you parrot - and yet it has nothing on the parliamentary system or executive PM. What I follow is major events - like BBI - Uhuru showed his hands there - otherwise as for drama - that is just drama. Uhuru has a problem with mt kenya because he lost the ground game.
Folks say Uhuru and Ruto have parted ways - then they meet for hours - Ruto men are still in gov - right or wrong - and Raila men are out of gov - right or wrong - BBI is pro-Ruto - right or wrong. So again whose reality is inverted.?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1223521622432387072&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytrends.co.ke%2Fjournalists-members-of-the-public-chased-out-of-uhurus-function-in-kirinyaga%2FUPDATE: Journalists denied entry into President Uhuru Kenyatta's public baraza at Wang'uru stadium in Kirinyaga county. Members of the public who are not on the chiefs' lists have also been locked out. pic.twitter.com/40tzUcx03J
— NTV Kenya (@ntvkenya) February 1, 2020
So this is the new redline - all Ruto men must be fired? And BBI revised. It doesn't matter if he is kicked out of his official house? Am sure Ruto could be relieved of his official motorcade and you would spin it as some plot to play Raila.
All semblance of Uhuruto partnership has long been breached. Now Uhuru is calling him a hyena and saying he is not his principal assitant. Your spin is that Ruto will grace baby showers. :)
Ruto atanyang'anywa bibi and we will be assured Uhurutopia is still intact.
Robina,
Has it occurred to you that all these madharau and belittling Ruto is actually endearing him to voters? The real people whose support matters? The ones who will troop to polling Stations from 4am to 6pm or even at night?
Let me get philosophical and spiritual and point out that to be a leader you must also be ready to be led. Must also be ready to follow and obey. Even the Holy Bible has such lessons (read King David story). That is what (in my opinion) denied Raila State House after Kibaki. And thereafter too. He was not ready to be led or to follow. He always wanted to be exalted and to recognized and eventually people got fed up with him. That's why it was really easy and obvious for Mt. Kenya residents to abandon him and yet they had labelled him Jamba (the Brave One) for his role in end of Moi's Kanu.
Ruto is playing it opposite. Being a "mjinga" and letting his Boss take credit even when he can justifiably chest thump. That aspect alone makes people like him more. Those who want to "cheat him" have a hard time explaining to the masses WHY. They see "a nice hardworking person mwenye hajasumbua (He's been loyal)" so even when political propaganda claim Ruto been abusing the President they aren't convincing and no one believes it.
So your celebration of Nyahunyo is one nail into BBI coffin.Ruto atanyang'anywa bibi and we will be assured Uhurutopia is still intact.
Garliv, am afraid being humble or turning the other cheek is not enough to win power in Zamunda. Such "principles" along with integrity, etc amount to nothing. The tribe is factor numero uno that determines the winner. This is why it is laughable that Mt Kenya would pick Ruto over Uhuru. Ain't gonna happen anytime soon.
History shows Moi and Kibaki became presidents by being humble. And being underrated. Uhuru case is that of a reluctant youngster being pushed to assume Presidency. Sometimes things are deeper than they seem.
But now that he (Uhuru) himself is scheming to be Executive PM he gets no support. At best mixed support and rejection being the bigger share.
Jomo Kenyatta/Jaramogi were defined by colonialism: that is different circumstances.
Seriously though, TRIBE is a factor especially among the 5 big tribes. And when tribe rejects one of their own then he doesn't go far. Uhuru is not going far.
And yes, whilst it's taken as guarantee that Mt. Kenya always support their own, no one has tried to seriously play alternative game. Ruto is playing that game. And I tell majority are asking "why should we abandon Ruto?" Uhuru and his henchmen have even turned to pure, open intimidation but it isn't working. When did that ever happen in Mt. Kenya that one of their own has had to use force/intimidation?
This... listen towards the end
I have listened. It doesn't support your contention at all. He says or rather implies that he had to support Ruto because he is the one who helped him when he had been rigged. Does that support your mlolongo narrative?
Second, Waititu made that speech when he had been ordered not to get into his Governor office. He also said Jubilee iko pamoja coz Uhuru and Ruto are all in jubilee and no one is leaving. In short a typical political speech for all to be pleased or annoyed by it.
Finally, Uhuru is not going for any seat. He rather expect his coalition with Raila will win MOST PARLIAMENTARY SEATS so that he can be Executive PM. As time goes on, am almost concurring with Pundit that it's a pipe dream. It won't happen. No one supports Uhuru claim to be Executive PM. He will be putting himself at the mercy of Raila. He will not win in Mt. Kenya. He simply won't! Even diehards Uhuru disciples don't understand this Executive PM thing and how Uhuru will win it..
Therefore it's not a question of Ruto vs Uhuru. Mt. Kenya have mentally and psychologically moved on to the next leader or search for one. They have reconciled that this time they cannot present anyone for President but they can provide Ruto with a Deputy. All the rest "ni Raila na zile tricks zake..." (quote from BodaBoda rider).. In short, it's Ruto's time.
Ps - it is not just the Kikuyu who are dumping Ruto - he has been haemorrhaging support countrywide. NFD, Coast, Western, name it. Likes of ole Lenku dumped him for Handshake.
Dumping part is easy. Supporting Raila is the hard part. That is why we voted UhuRuto despite ICC. I have told you for many years now as LONG AS RUTO MAIN OPPONENT IS JADOUNG RAILA - RUTO IS SLEEPWALKING MOONWALKING JAYWALKING TO STATEHOUSE.The fear and mistrust of Raila FAR SUPERSEDE RUTO. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you.
That is politic for mlolongo ... "Ruto helped me win". Unless you are incapable or unwilling to read between the lines. The fact he felt beholden to Ruto enough to hang for it. There are ample other off-the-cuff remarks by Nyanja et al about mlolongo. That leaked Tuju tape of "Ruto aliweka watu yake". When someone expects privacy and spouts things there is good reason to believe them.
Where do you get the factual narrative of what Gema want? A bodaboda rider :) There are enough Gema who have not forgotten Kiambaa and you cannot rely on an individual's opinion to pass judgement. All those Gema leaders who have been peeling off the Ruto bandwagon - governors, senators, MPs, MCAs - are indicative of the wider trend as Uhuru intentions become clear. Ruto's appeal was pegged on next-in-line. See now how non-Gema are realigning. Where have you seen him raiding Raila turf recently? Raila is raiding him. Around April 2018 Ruto had Kingi and a sizeable Coast following. Where are they now?
We have a reliable history of "Njamba" getting dumped. 2012 we heard the same thing about Kenya cannot stomach another Gema presidency then what happened? Ruto showed up with "inasemekana ati nyinyi hamwezi pigia mtu mwingine kura." Pundit warned noone else would trust Gema if they betrayed Ruto. But we have Raila and non-Gema lining up for a fresh deal. Only the present interests matter.
Uhury sells BBI in DCwhich version of the BBI..the one we have or the one we will have.
Uhury sells BBI in DCwhich version of the BBI..the one we have or the one we will have.
1. I am on the ground. And more and more frequent I get invite to explain to some meeting what's this BBI is all about and why there is hullabaloo yet "no one is opposing it..." So i pretty much have the feel on the ground. And yes, such a boda boda rider can actually represent a more accurate picture of "how the ground is..." than some lawyer or pseudo intellectual sitting at Java over third rate coffee. Have you actually ever campaigned or ever been involved in political mobilisation? If you ever do, then you'd realise the illiterate looking villager may represent true feelings..
2. Njamba was easy to dump. Indeed honeymoon for Njamba didn't even last 2yrs. And all that acrimonious relationship with Kibaki still haunts Raila support in Mt. Kenya. That is a fact. Therefore when Uhuru brings Raila as new found political bride, there is simply dread. Believe it or not.
3. I have intimate knowledge of 2012/2013 attempt to have MaDVD as presidential candidate. In brief, Kibaki and his thinkers led by Wanjui and others thought another Kikuyu should not succeed Kibaki. And they also wanted to shape political leadership in their own image. Fyi, Jezebel was also then at the centre. So they approach MaDVD and he agreed under proviso that he would be able to bring in Luhya Nation with him. They formed UDF. I was recruited as a member. And they started mobilisation, meetings and getting influencers to market UDF and MaDVD. To cut long story short, as they were doing that they also engaged private pollsters like Synovate and also compared with NIS research on whether MaDVD can actually deliver Luhya Nation. At his peak, MaDVD had about 24% support. Then Raila and his political machine in Luhya land started dismissing MaDVD as a sellout to Kikuyu or insults like Kikuyu biiitch. His support plummeted to around 8%. By then the country was nearing election time. So some group split from Kibaki and his intellectuals and argued that "we" are going "to fall" (be defeated at the poll) to Raila by supporting MaDVD who has no home backing. They reasoned it was better to "have your own whether you win or lose". And from then on more people abandoned MaDVD and UDF. They hatched a plan to first get Uhuru to run whether he wanted or not. I have first hand knowledge so i can tell you much more including when Uhuru made his "mademoni speech". He agreed and then search for alliance begun. First was Kalonzo who was considered but he made some demands which did not correspond with his numbers. His Ukambani base was considered good but didn't have "the punch that was needed to beat 50% mark". Thereafter a deal was made with Ruto and the rest is history.
My point, things are more than they seem! So it was not a question of dismissing Raila or MaDVD just because they are not Kikuyus.
Finally, yes should Mt. Kenya abandon Ruto without justifiable reason then there would not any reason for anyone else to ever form an alliance with Mt. Kenya. Absolutely none. And you better believe it, even that bodaboda or mama soko will tell you something like this.. "Kama hatukua na Ruto 2017 hii inchi ingekua baya..." They refer to election, then annulment of that election then another election and Kenya didn't descend into chaos. Yes, NASA protested but it could have been worse.
Therefore for Uhuru's Alliance with Raila to be solid and acceptable, people must be told why they have "to abandon Ruto and embrace Raila.." That is something each time Uhuru is asked he gets angry.
Parliamentary. Uhuru's intentions are rather clear.
Let us talk traction. What has happened to Ruto since Handshake? How is he doing in the regions? You keep talking about Mt Kenya as if Kenya starts and ends with them. It doesn't.
The trends by region I have given you... Gema, Luhya, Gusii, NFD, Matusa, Mijikenda - Ruto has haemorrhaged support everywhere as the next-in-line and unbeatable facade has shattered. In Kibra and the numerous body blows. Gema for instance - all governors - even Waititu had surrendered by impeachment. Senators Ruto has 2 or 3 now. MPs we have Kaninis, Sabinas, etc. MCAs we have seen Kiambu mass defection enough to hang Waititu.
You can repeat this for Pwani, Gusii, etc - Kingi and the MPs have deserted Ruto - he has only Jumwa, Jicho Pevu and like 2 others now. Ole Lenku and company in Maa. I posted the link of Raila's raid of NFD. Gusii there is no even need to mention.
See? BBI does not require Gema to pass yet the trend does not even agree with your story of ground resistance. That is why Tangatanga have resorted to that propaganda about the chiefs vetting people at the stadium. That 000's of folks were vetted but there is no single video or tweet :o :o
Ruto's Gema popularity is a narrative not a reality.
1. The subject is Uhuru's plan and it's acceptance in Mt. Kenya. Therefore no way to avoid mentioning and getting into Gema political intricacies.
2. Outside Gema, its you who is overestimating Raila's support. Indeed a significant percentage of his own base don't understand the final intent of BBI and why would Raila accept "Ceremonial Presidency" and give power to someone who has been wielding it for 10yrs. So by looks of things it's you who is over rating BBI acceptance.
3. Most Governors have been cowed. They don't have a choice. You keep mentioning somebody like Wa Iria and yet he has his own party ready for launch when "things cool down." Governors are also being given between 20m to 30m to organise BBI meetings. Some of that cash they must grease Baba's Office. This is no longer a secret.
4. Definitely and without a doubt County Commissioners, DCs and Chiefs are now vetting those who can attend President meetings. For example, those who attended Uhuru meeting in Nakuru Gicheha Farm were vetted by Governor Lee and County Commissioner. Then they were given 10k each. When he visited Salgaa to launch Cement Factory same Governor and County Commissioner vetted those in attendance. Most were actually akina Mama. This group didn't get anything and were really annoyed. At Nyandarua when local MP and MCA were denied entry almost half of the public walked out. You cannot read or watch such news because nowadays BBI must be shown in great light and Ruto as villain. This is obvious from media coverage. Any journalist would tell you he/she cannot file anything negative about Uhuru or Raila as some editors will just cut it out.
5. More importantly ask yourself why Uhuru's government would actually intimidate people from his own backyard? Some spend their resources and time to campaign for him and yet he is now using Nyahunyo on them. Why!?
6. And yes, County Commissioners and chiefs are used to vet also because of security reasons. Because even NIS advices the President that "the ground is hostile" and who knows some hothead may have his own idea. Now imagine having maximum security to visit your own backyard and yet he now doesn't need that in Nyanza. What does that tells you?
7. Finally, BBI success will be determined in Mt. Kenya region. Reason being, if Uhuru cannot bring Gema numbers/MPs on the table what will he be doing exactly in a Raila's coalition? It will not make sense. And when Uhuru and his delusional team realises that then they will adjust accordingly: they accept Ruto is incoming President and be prepared for it. After all they are known opportunists who can switch sides in a blink.
Alternative is for Uhuru to help Raila force through BBI amendments knowing very well he himself will have no other role.
Of course you can restrict us to Mt Kenya but BBI is a Kenyan agenda. The co-author is Luo. The arch- protagonist is Kalenjin.1. The subject is Uhuru's plan and it's acceptance in Mt. Kenya. Therefore no way to avoid mentioning and getting into Gema political intricacies.
I am only watching the players and their motions. Many big kahuna have fled Ruto's camp. You can google it. When it makes it into the mainstream media know it's real.2. Outside Gema, its you who is overestimating Raila's support. Indeed a significant percentage of his own base don't understand the final intent of BBI and why would Raila accept "Ceremonial Presidency" and give power to someone who has been wielding it for 10yrs. So by looks of things it's you who is over rating BBI acceptance.
Maybe the money. Of course they can't organize rallies from their pockets. Intimidation I thought so too but look at an event like CoG secret ballot. Ruto's crew were routed. Also the enthusiasm with which wa Iria et al are drumming BBI and trash-talking Tangatanga is abit more than just fear. Maybe the cash is alot? Politicians are greedy.
Look also at the Senate Waititu impeachment - it was a rout. That includes Mt Kenya senators - only Linturi, Kihika and I think Laikipia man backed Waititu despite Murkomen spirited attempts to save him.
Kiambu MCAs impeached Waititu - that's 2/3 yet Ruto is supposed to be wildly popular there 8) Discuss. He is no longer the annointed one so they have re-aligned.3. Most Governors have been cowed. They don't have a choice. You keep mentioning somebody like Wa Iria and yet he has his own party ready for launch when "things cool down." Governors are also being given between 20m to 30m to organise BBI meetings. Some of that cash they must grease Baba's Office. This is no longer a secret.
Gicheha Farm was not a public meeting. It was chosen Kikuyu elders and Handshake crew lead by Kinyanjui. Salgaa is a Kalenjin area... not Gema. I would expect hostility if I was Uhuru.
I don't buy the media blackout stories anymore than the public vetting. Imagine a dangerous place like Dusit memes were doing rounds on Twitter... such a vetting would be all over. Nor can you bar journalists without attracting KUJ and such protests. Huo ni uongo. Also there is alot of independent and pro-Ruto media... even Raila and NASA had fair coverage in Jubilee 1.0. Except the Raila swearing-in blackout. Ruto bought K24 and Kameme or Inoro according to Pundit. However I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the various media ownerships.
Tangatanga are desperate to maintain the "tuko pamoja" lie which Uhuru wants to kill thus the nyahunyo. Uhurutopia is the oxygen for their narrative. I could be wrong to imagine they don't have a right to stalk him. Joho attempted that sometimes and faced it rough.4. Definitely and without a doubt County Commissioners, DCs and Chiefs are now vetting those who can attend President meetings. For example, those who attended Uhuru meeting in Nakuru Gicheha Farm were vetted by Governor Lee and County Commissioner. Then they were given 10k each. When he visited Salgaa to launch Cement Factory same Governor and County Commissioner vetted those in attendance. Most were actually akina Mama. This group didn't get anything and were really annoyed. At Nyandarua when local MP and MCA were denied entry almost half of the public walked out. You cannot read or watch such news because nowadays BBI must be shown in great light and Ruto as villain. This is obvious from media coverage. Any journalist would tell you he/she cannot file anything negative about Uhuru or Raila as some editors will just cut it out.
It is Mlolongo MPs who are being intimidated. Ruto rigged them in. Those who play neutral are not bothered. The defectors have shown unparalleled passion for BBI. Waiguru, Kinyanjui and wa Iria are serious BBI champions. A few Kaninis and Sabinas too. There were rumors about KJ but am not sure - he seems to have gone quiet. Isaak Ruto's present leaning is unconfirmed - Big Ruto sent him to RSA for stitches a while back over less weighty philosophical differences.5. More importantly ask yourself why Uhuru's government would actually intimidate people from his own backyard? Some spend their resources and time to campaign for him and yet he is now using Nyahunyo on them. Why!?
I have not seen the maximum security. Videos of Gema cheering Uhuru at ad hoc stopovers in Bahati (the diaspora supposedly intoxicated with Ruto), Ol Kalou, etc are all over YouTube. They were cheering as he tore into Ruto, Kimani Ngunjiri and Tangatanga. No hostilities whatsoever. I challenged you and Pundit to demo that vetting story. Like we know Kuria was hounded in Kitui cause it was all over YouTube. Where are the videos of wananchi being vetted? Instead we have one static snap of a stadium gate. Kenyans are digital that is why we have all those unprofessional Kuria and Uhuru videos. Or Kibicho pulled them from YouTube? :)
No, there is no "hostile ground" - that is Ruto propaganda. Because he has no real following.6. And yes, County Commissioners and chiefs are used to vet also because of security reasons. Because even NIS advices the President that "the ground is hostile" and who knows some hothead may have his own idea. Now imagine having maximum security to visit your own backyard and yet he now doesn't need that in Nyanza. What does that tells you?
Let me explain again. BBI is popular in non-Gema for the same exact reason it is unpopular in Gema: it levels the playing field. That is why Raila is having a field day marketing it. You have seen Murkomen and Kuria gate-crushing the rallies while endlessly threatening but never holding their anti-BBI counterrallies. Why pretend to support such an unpopular item? That is as ridiculous as stalking the hated Uhuru and crying about ejection. Or blaming Kimemia for their woes.
Once parliamentary is passed it will be Uhuru for PM. Gema will fall in line - it will be a stampede - forget the one-by-one filing in now. Raila is on the clock so he is ready to retire as ceremonial president. In a coalition arrangement he gets good say and patronage much better than right now where CSs appointed by Ruto are saluting him :) That is the ace against Ruto - willingness to sacrifice. Parliamentary and the Uhuru contribution to bringing down Ruto are big payoffs besides that Gema are increasingly filing behind him. In any case Raila was hopeless before Trojan 2 - we were all waiting for Acting President Ruto as Uhuru sun-bathes in Hawaii.
How is Kiunjuri faring? Any massive TSP rallies?7. Finally, BBI success will be determined in Mt. Kenya region. Reason being, if Uhuru cannot bring Gema numbers/MPs on the table what will he be doing exactly in a Raila's coalition? It will not make sense. And when Uhuru and his delusional team realises that then they will adjust accordingly: they accept Ruto is incoming President and be prepared for it. After all they are known opportunists who can switch sides in a blink.
Alternative is for Uhuru to help Raila force through BBI amendments knowing very well he himself will have no other role.
1. Your assumption is that Uhuru/Raila pass BBI parliamentary/regional version then Kikuyus will have no choice but stampede into Raila/Uhuru Alliance. All i can say, lets wait for that day. First as Pundit keep typing, let BBI version 2 be a reality. Then we shall see.
2. BBI as it is at the moment is even acceptable to Mt. Kenya. And it makes sense to have somebody like Majority Leader as PM. He sits in the cabinet and has power and authority to demand information and updates from other government departments so as he can effectively defend government in Parliament. That's fine.
And Ruto and TangaTanga team have no problem with that. Most people don't have lots of issues with that. It's tweaking here and there to make the system work better.
3. As more and more people realize that BBI version 1 was just a ruse to introduce a more radical document, the more they hate it. The more they hate this Raila thing. They realise its Raila wanting power through the back door!
4. Don't claim BBI is popular outside Gema. One, Kalenjin and huge section of Matusa are with Ruto. So is some parts of Western and Coast. Just because people are quite doesn't mean they agree. Even Duale has finally realized what he was supporting is not what Raila/Uhuru meant. And there more like those people. Even good size of Gusii population cannot agree to Regional government thing.
You are overrating support of BBI version 2 which most people are yet to understand. Right now they realise there is something "strange about BBI" because if Uhuru, Raila and Ruto cannot build a bridge between them what about building bridges for 47m? If Moses Kuria and Murkomen cannot be allowed into meetings which bridges are being built?
That is good. But at least you have to appreciate the non-Gema yearning for equity. Another 60 years of Kikuyu-Kalenjin is a big yawn in many places.
Equity to who? This is a Raila narrative so that he can guilt Uhuru and others into his schemes. Consider Kenya has over 40 tribes (call them nationalities as they do in Russia) and the Five Big Tribes dominate almost everything. Even if Kenya adopt your beloved Parliamentary system, the national leadership would still be dominated by the big 5 tribes. A Mijikenda has no chance to be president or PM. So is a Borana. And many others purely because the big tribes always try to accommodate each other before they consider "smaller tribes.."
So when you talk of Equity be careful what you mean.
Equity means managed tyranny. By definition it benefits the weaker party. There is a reason why an overwhelming majority of parliamentaries are so successful. Even the US has a managed tyranny. It is not all about Raila and Ruto. If you see no issue with 2 tribes for 60 years with no end in sight.... it is not possible to convince you.
Yes, let discuss BBI 2.0 when we know what it is. We are discussing Robina crazy ideas like we did in BBI 1.0 - she disappeared a few days and re-appeared - licked her wounds and has BBI 2.0 figured out.
I truly understand when Kalenjin/Kikuyu dominance comes into play. But am yet to find a more sober way to deal with it. Majority Leader can be turned into PM with at Supervisory and coordination roles with the proviso he/she be non-kikuyu/Kale.
Counties were established to at least make Governors a bit powerful so that people may "feel the government is near.." Not sure it has worked as envisaged.
Creating Official Opposition with a shadow cabinet and it's offices funded by the exchequer is also another way. Current version of BBI has that. Like if President earns a salary of 2m, the leader of opposition should earn about 70%-80% of that. Then his shadow cabinet earn such a percentage of CSs. Then he should have such things as transport allowances and other benefits. Point being, the Leader of Opposition be valued as genuine leader because in reality he's normally is. Also with assumption that the Opposition will always be doing their best to safeguard against government excesses. If anything Raila dalliance with Uhuru has shown the importance of a good opposition in Kenya. Right now both supposedly leader of the opposition and the government executive scratch each other back. It's shamba la wanyama. Despite being not a Raila supporter truly appreciate his role as opposition leader. Jis makelele while in opposition have been helpful in checking some excesses.
But Parliamentary system/Federalism (Majimbo) in the name of addressing Kikuyu/Kalenjin dominance is like killing the baby to save it. Dismember Kenya so as to save it!
Regional or 3rd tier is DOA I don't see it passing. You already went into the tiny 47 counties so that horse is in the wild and untamable. But the REBs say in Central among kina Kimemia are a synergy that should be harnessed. The proposed NHS seems to centralize healthcare management. Presently the MoH is a toothless bulldog going by the strikes and other county medical inadequacies.
Parliamentary has many empirical merits. If the UK was presidential, for instance, Scotland and Ireland would be locked out of power. But we have had many Scotsmen Blairs and MacDonalds for prime minister. Because Scots have many MPs disproportionate to their raw numbers. Parliamentary and federalism sustain the cohesive UK. An imperial president - like Trump! - would have long bulldozed Brexit and alienated the non-English. Without the lengthy debates necessitated by the parliamentary accountability Brexit would have broken the
Robina UK is best system.Kenyans don't tell us about that colonial master.Raila adopted the US system for us.Anyway Ruto continue to sleepwalk to PORK.
Kiunjuri on warpath. He will take this easily - he is so far only making 5 minutes appearances on Sundays. Uhuru has totally isolated himself - I held that he would stick with Rotich and hang Kiunjuri and Wamalwa. Always though Rotich was his fixer. Uhuru will surely meet his Waterloo, only a matter of when.
Kiunjuri on warpath. He will take this easily - he is so far only making 5 minutes appearances on Sundays. Uhuru has totally isolated himself - I held that he would stick with Rotich and hang Kiunjuri and Wamalwa. Always though Rotich was his fixer. Uhuru will surely meet his Waterloo, only a matter of when.Its true Uhuru isn't popular in Gema. The reason why he's not popular has very little to do with BBI, it all boils down to the economy. There's very little the jubilee government can do to revive the economy cause the measures needed would mean drastic reversal of their tax,borrow and spend(wasteful, inflated) model. Kiunjuri was and is part of the problem, for heaven sake it was when he was cs for agriculture that the ministry embarked on regulating and controlling agriculture.
Its true Uhuru isn't popular in Gema. The reason why he's not popular has very little to do with BBI, it all boils down to the economy. There's very little the jubilee government can do to revive the economy cause the measures needed would mean drastic reversal of their tax,borrow and spend(wasteful, inflated) model. Kiunjuri was and is part of the problem, for heaven sake it was when he was cs for agriculture that the ministry embarked on regulating and controlling agriculture.
There's a reason why tanga team mps e.g rigathi gachagua and ndindi nyoro have teamed up to come up very a ridiculous impractical proposal of guarantee returns. This is populist ploy meant to win over Gema , just as uhuru wing is scrabbling to try revive agriculture with meaningless coffee funds, kcc milk prices and setting prices of rice in Mwea. All the above are feeble and futile attempt to revive the gema economy.
Kiunjuri's worst blunder is selling Ruto and not himself. How do you take on the prince by backing an alien? A very steep price without guaranteed return. Besides the futility - suppose he succeeds the payoff goes to Ruto. He is an idiot like Waititu.
Actually Ruto is popular - so need no selling. The WORST PLUNDER is attempting to sell Raila in Mt Kenya. You already know that - see how Uhuru has gone from hero to nearly zero. Kiunjuri should finish him up.Kiunjuri's worst blunder is selling Ruto and not himself. How do you take on the prince by backing an alien? A very steep price without guaranteed return. Besides the futility - suppose he succeeds the payoff goes to Ruto. He is an idiot like Waititu.
Uhuru is selling himself... so it a mountain for Ruto. Worse BBI is very popular in non-Gema which Raila is using to isolate Ruto. Ruto best strategy is to completely block BBI and Uhuru 2.0 which is very hard.