Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: KenyanPlato on October 27, 2019, 11:56:02 PM
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His argument is that it is over for jubilee as far as economy expansion is concerned. He argues it is a matter of managing crisis till 2022. On employment he contends it a matter of policy trickle down economic policy versus bottom up. Where the people are or where capital is. 26 percent of Kenyans are underemployed meaning they are unproductive.
What is the fix? Change policy and have the political will to implement it
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Most Kenyan politicians are in for the powerf and money. Everything else they don’t have the understanding to make policy. Kinda like Trump
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You are right that is the tradedy of the current crop of politicians in Kenya.
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Ndii is a gloomster and doomster. Wish he had positive suggestions like his peer Bitange Ndemo. Along the diagnosis, offer a prescription and administer the dosage if possible. That's the full treatment.
Economics, unlike science and engineering, hardly evolve with the times. We still have 2000 years old double entry system. Since 300BC. :) Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels stuff. At least Ndemo laments slow progress in uptake of scitech. Most Ndii viewpoints are antiques. Not everything is economics.
The economy in Kenya has MASSIVE headroom for growth. We are seeing the digital dividend right now. The demographic dividend is next. Then the infra dividend will follow once there is enough talent and capital to leverage it. The synergy has a leapfrog potential. The noises in the streets are mostly resistance to the shifting ground - brick & mortar to digital. Only war can derail Kenya.
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Refreshing read from you. Dr Ndoom has been predicting doom ever since I don't know what. Equity made a mistake and put him in the board. They fired him and Equity now is huge conglomerate with assets at nearly 700B kshs.
Ndii is a gloomster and doomster. Wish he had positive suggestions like his peer Bitange Ndemo. Along the diagnosis, offer a prescription and administer the dosage if possible. That's the full treatment.
Economics, unlike science and engineering, hardly evolve with the times. We still have 2000 years old double entry system. Since 300BC. :) Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels stuff. At least Ndemo laments slow progress in uptake of scitech. Most Ndii viewpoints are antiques. Not everything is economics.
The economy in Kenya has MASSIVE headroom for growth. We are seeing the digital dividend right now. The demographic dividend is next. Then the infra dividend will follow once there is enough talent and capital to leverage it. The synergy has a leapfrog potential. The noises in the streets are mostly resistance to the shifting ground - brick & mortar to digital. Only war can derail Kenya.
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Dr Doom is not brilliant and the cynicism obfuscates his low quality reasoning. The politics is a cover not an impediment.
Refreshing read from you. Dr Ndoom has been predicting doom ever since I don't know what. Equity made a mistake and put him in the board. They fired him and Equity now is huge conglomerate with assets at nearly 700B kshs.
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Absolutely, he wears the Oxford phd cover like some badge - and yet he studied in Oxford Africa affairs dept (a waste bag).
Dr Doom is not brilliant and the cynicism obfuscates his low quality reasoning. The politics is a cover not an impediment.
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Ndii's point is that treasury knows the solution but don't have the willpower to implement the solution. Everyone from CBK governor to Former economic adviser to president has pointed out the effects of going on debt binge and implications on the private sector. I believe some of the people who're now in treasury were Ndii's lecturers at UON.
We have a subdued private sector that's not able to fully take advantage of digital and demographics dividends. Kenya has massive potential the question is what type of policy needed to harness that potential.
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I think credit squeeze from interest capping will solve some of these problems.
Ndii's point is that treasury knows the solution but don't have the willpower to implement the solution. Everyone from CBK governor to Former economic adviser to president has pointed out the effects of going on debt binge and implications on the private sector. I believe some of the people who're now in treasury were Ndii's lecturers at UON.
We have a subdued private sector that's not able to fully take advantage of digital and demographics dividends. Kenya has massive potential the question is what type of policy needed to harness that potential.
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Ndii's point is that treasury knows the solution but don't have the willpower to implement the solution. Everyone from CBK governor to Former economic adviser to president has pointed out the effects of going on debt binge and implications on the private sector. I believe some of the people who're now in treasury were Ndii's lecturers at UON.
We have a subdued private sector that's not able to fully take advantage of digital and demographics dividends. Kenya has massive potential the question is what type of policy needed to harness that potential.
Ndii is wrong - Treasury does not know nor have a solution. The state has limited levers to control the economy. Every successful nation has a dominant private sector - and it is a handy excuse to say the interest cap is the only impediment to growth. If there was sterling talent in Kenya - capital would trickle in via VC and FDI. The world is flat and the whining MSMEs are mostly brick & mortar models. Agric has been drifting since the 70s - when tea & coffee commodity exchanges premiered on the globe. After the "boom" they commoditized and the slaggards collapsed. Real estate, travel, oil & gas - any globalized sector soon separates the wheat from the chaff. Capital is global - Bitpesa or Cellulant has $50m from mzungu pensioners. Just as digital - demographic dividend will kick in regardless of interest caps. Cause low dependency ratio means more savings, better education, better manpower - more capital flows to tap it.
Ndiiconomics are antiques - outdated stuff. Same ideas since Julius Caesar hit the Mediterranean to trade ships for grains and the Egyptian bride. It is why we grapple with the reality of mjengo crew tarmacking along the shiny rail - excellent foot utility :) - cause everywhere else is mud, sewage and congestion - despite pie-in-the-sky GDP and such metrics.
In short - Ndii is not biased, he is incompetent. It is a good idea to squeeze the traditional MSMSE to build infrastructure for a period. Cause deserving ventures will still attract capital easily. I principally disagree with GoK mispriorities, poor execution and runaway sleaze.
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Robina
You think economics is a antiquated field? All I am hearing you two talk is a lot of wishy washy stuff that are neither finance or economics. Here the economic question is simple. How do you increase productivity? You have i think 15 million qorkerz underemployed and in low productivity jobs. You want to increase their productivity to create more ? How do you do it? We did the infrastructure thing it has grown govt spending and not solved this problem
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Productivity - I think revitalizing technical and vocational training - for millions of kids who don't make it to university is good start - Thanks to Jubilee focus on TIVET (and Matiangi mass failure) - We have doubled enrollment from 150K students to nearly 300k - in 2-3yrs. The target is to enroll 2M kids by 2022. Therefore gov has to keep investing in building more and more TIVET institutions. University enrollment of 500k - is probably good enough for now - we don't have that much white collar jobs for all those graduates.
Then next battle is to provide them with blue-collar jobs - manufacturing jobs - and this is where gov has to listen to manufacturers - and provide them what they want - cheap reliable electricity,remove minimum wages, make labour laws easy to hire & fire, provide roads & rail (make it cheap & efficient), ease of doing business. Build more EPZ/SEZ where this conditions can be provided. Ban Mitumba and some of unnecessary imports - and do import-substitution - we already spend 18-20B dollars importing many useless things we can make.
And provides others with cheap capital - convert all the women/youth enterprises into Devolpment Bank that can give low interest rate to people too risk for commercial banks - possibly grant every TIVET graduate with some start up capital - build business/industrial hubs/ -where they can start their own enterprises.
And of course make sure the macro-economics are on poin - growing economy, low interest rate, low inflation rate - will eventually generate jobs.
Robina
You think economics is a antiquated field? All I am hearing you two talk is a lot of wishy washy stuff that are neither finance or economics. Here the economic question is simple. How do you increase productivity? You have i think 15 million qorkerz underemployed and in low productivity jobs. You want to increase their productivity to create more ? How do you do it? We did the infrastructure thing it has grown govt spending and not solved this problem
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Robina
You think economics is a antiquated field? All I am hearing you two talk is a lot of wishy washy stuff that are neither finance or economics. Here the economic question is simple. How do you increase productivity? You have i think 15 million qorkerz underemployed and in low productivity jobs. You want to increase their productivity to create more ? How do you do it? We did the infrastructure thing it has grown govt spending and not solved this problem
That's what I understand Ndii to be saying. How and why nobody is exploiting the potential of all those bodies and brains to the full. A relevant question regardless of the level of available technology.
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Robina
You think economics is a antiquated field? All I am hearing you two talk is a lot of wishy washy stuff that are neither finance or economics. Here the economic question is simple. How do you increase productivity? You have i think 15 million qorkerz underemployed and in low productivity jobs. You want to increase their productivity to create more ? How do you do it? We did the infrastructure thing it has grown govt spending and not solved this problem
That's what I understand Ndii to be saying. How and why nobody is exploiting the potential of all those bodies and brains to the full. A relevant question regardless of the level of available technology.
My take on Ndii is diagnosis with neither prescription nor medication. Why should we trust his diagnosis?
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Robina
You think economics is a antiquated field? All I am hearing you two talk is a lot of wishy washy stuff that are neither finance or economics. Here the economic question is simple. How do you increase productivity? You have i think 15 million qorkerz underemployed and in low productivity jobs. You want to increase their productivity to create more ? How do you do it? We did the infrastructure thing it has grown govt spending and not solved this problem
Yes, a big chunk of economics is outdated. Too many loopholes in the old theories. For instance on this blog and other fora, people struggle to capture reality - which economic metrics don't capture. GDP, GNP, per capita, HDI, Gini. How is the economy doing? You can only use English not economics to express the situation.
I know you're a management consultant. Most of you lot are antiques. You walk into a struggling business, say KQ, and the output is a massive bill and whitepaper. Bye! Imagine your doctor says you have a bad heart - and sayonara, good luck! 8) Of course the armchair analysis is usually already tried and failed due to circumstance. Management consulting is a talkshop with no action aka politics.
I don't mean that natural or physical sciences or engineering are better. That's a separate matter. But at least physicians or astronomists face out and keep researching and discovering. Stuff like the theory of competition really - perfect competition is supposed to cause innovation. But we all know better, no? Who is more innovative - Safaricom or KQ? Google or GE? It is the monopoly that innovates - not the cash-strapped restaurant or retail business. Restaurants are a perfect competition - but zero innovation - cause no cash. It is why they put granny at the counter and the kids do the dishes in the back. The entire market theory is outdated. Newtonian classics were supplanted first by quantum then Einstein's relativity. Economic inventions or innovations are slow, scarce or non existent.
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You are misunderstanding Dr Ndii Robina. He is saying the illness is govt spendinf led growth instead of focusing on increasing productivity with the economy that serves majority. His prescription is jubilee should have focused on agriculture and smes and other much needed infrastructures like sewer lines instead of a few big infrastructure projects..he illustrates how govt borrowing has shifted 100 billion from smes to govt ...i agree about economics being very dicey and needs a lot of debating or policy shifts plus political will to implement..it is pseudo science the onky way to know if an economic policy is going to work is to test in small scale and then scale it up ...i think people just hate Ndii politics and thus do not like his ideas.
One thing about @ndii is that he has years of field exprience and is a data driven type of guy so any thing he says is backed with this..
HK is right that Ndii is close to govt economists.
He believes what he is saying is common knowledge with govt policy makers is only that there is no political will ..uhuru is focused on corporate private sector growth he wrongly believed that he could leap frog kenya development using this model.
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Plato most economic theories are as old as Greek philosophy. Perhaps we should evolve classic economics into quantum economics. :D
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Productivity - I think revitalizing technical and vocational training - for millions of kids who don't make it to university is good start - Thanks to Jubilee focus on TIVET (and Matiangi mass failure) - We have doubled enrollment from 150K students to nearly 300k - in 2-3yrs. The target is to enroll 2M kids by 2022. Therefore gov has to keep investing in building more and more TIVET institutions. University enrollment of 500k - is probably good enough for now - we don't have that much white collar jobs for all those graduates.
Then next battle is to provide them with blue-collar jobs - manufacturing jobs - and this is where gov has to listen to manufacturers - and provide them what they want - cheap reliable electricity,remove minimum wages, make labour laws easy to hire & fire, provide roads & rail (make it cheap & efficient), ease of doing business. Build more EPZ/SEZ where this conditions can be provided. Ban Mitumba and some of unnecessary imports - and do import-substitution - we already spend 18-20B dollars importing many useless things we can make.
And provides others with cheap capital - convert all the women/youth enterprises into Devolpment Bank that can give low interest rate to people too risk for commercial banks - possibly grant every TIVET graduate with some start up capital - build business/industrial hubs/ -where they can start their own enterprises.
And of course make sure the macro-economics are on poin - growing economy, low interest rate, low inflation rate - will eventually generate jobs.
Robina
You think economics is a antiquated field? All I am hearing you two talk is a lot of wishy washy stuff that are neither finance or economics. Here the economic question is simple. How do you increase productivity? You have i think 15 million qorkerz underemployed and in low productivity jobs. You want to increase their productivity to create more ? How do you do it? We did the infrastructure thing it has grown govt spending and not solved this problem
So you think what we need is more plumbers machinists and electricians? Where are these jobs that are have no workers due to lack of skills.. The only thing i agree with is textile we have agoa we can scale that up.
Anyway jubilee 10 years are done. We got sgr stuck in suswa. I just saw that judiciary took 50 percent budgetary austerity hair cut..we have a nyachae in finance cutting with scalpel ...hopefully your guy will be elected and we see whst he can do for 10 years
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Plato most economic theories are as old as Greek philosophy. Perhaps we should evolve classic economics into quantum economics. :D
We are now operating under the neoliberal theory where the market is the king and everythig else trickles down. I think economics is voodoo you just have to create as you go and have everyone buy into it.. It is something very hard to grasp c
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Plato most economic theories are as old as Greek philosophy. Perhaps we should evolve classic economics into quantum economics. :D
We are now operating under the neoliberal theory where the market is the king and everythig else trickles down. I think economics is voodoo you just have to create as you go and have everyone buy into it.. It is something very hard to grasp c
In short it's politics. By the way your moniker really suits you.
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You are misunderstanding Dr Ndii Robina. He is saying the illness is govt spendinf led growth instead of focusing on increasing productivity with the economy that serves majority. His prescription is jubilee should have focused on agriculture and smes and other much needed infrastructures like sewer lines instead of a few big infrastructure projects..he illustrates how govt borrowing has shifted 100 billion from smes to govt ...i agree about economics being very dicey and needs a lot of debating or policy shifts plus political will to implement..it is pseudo science the onky way to know if an economic policy is going to work is to test in small scale and then scale it up ...i think people just hate Ndii politics and thus do not like his ideas.
One thing about @ndii is that he has years of field exprience and is a data driven type of guy so any thing he says is backed with this..
HK is right that Ndii is close to govt economists.
He believes what he is saying is common knowledge with govt policy makers is only that there is no political will ..uhuru is focused on corporate private sector growth he wrongly believed that he could leap frog kenya development using this model.
I get this. What Ndii doesn't say is the shift in capital models. From domestic to global. From bank to VC. Niche to commodity. Where are Uber, Jumia, M-kopa, Tala getting capital? Money, business and jobs are still there just in digital and new paradigms. Cottage industry and micros need Sacco's.
Infrastructure is infrastructure. Investing in metro subway or sewer system in place of cross-country SGR is just a bigger return. There would be no new jobs from that either. Jobs should be created by the private sector - and they still are - but by Uber, Twiga Foods or Cellulant - not bank cashiers or clerks. Mama mboga, manamba and brick banks will soon go extinct. The strugglers are deadwood who must reinvent themselves. Who needs pre-cap loans really? - such costly capital - the very MSME and hustlers that pushed for caps? With the Spark Fund, Savannah, Fanisi, etc. Hata Uwezo Fund ni VC. :) Banks can't bridge Sacco- to VC gap.
We should debate how to expand VC sector - not state capture or bending backwards to subsidize old-school models. Traditional banking and logbook loans - is similar to sugar or maize farming. Shape up or ship out.
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Ndii's point is that treasury knows the solution but don't have the willpower to implement the solution. Everyone from CBK governor to Former economic adviser to president has pointed out the effects of going on debt binge and implications on the private sector. I believe some of the people who're now in treasury were Ndii's lecturers at UON.
We have a subdued private sector that's not able to fully take advantage of digital and demographics dividends. Kenya has massive potential the question is what type of policy needed to harness that potential.
Ndii is wrong - Treasury does not know nor have a solution. The state has limited levers to control the economy. Every successful nation has a dominant private sector - and it is a handy excuse to say the interest cap is the only impediment to growth. If there was sterling talent in Kenya - capital would trickle in via VC and FDI. The world is flat and the whining MSMEs are mostly brick & mortar models. Agric has been drifting since the 70s - when tea & coffee commodity exchanges premiered on the globe. After the "boom" they commoditized and the slaggards collapsed. Real estate, travel, oil & gas - any globalized sector soon separates the wheat from the chaff. Capital is global - Bitpesa or Cellulant has $50m from mzungu pensioners. Just as digital - demographic dividend will kick in regardless of interest caps. Cause low dependency ratio means more savings, better education, better manpower - more capital flows to tap it.
Ndiiconomics are antiques - outdated stuff. Same ideas since Julius Caesar hit the Mediterranean to trade ships for grains and the Egyptian bride. It is why we grapple with the reality of mjengo crew tarmacking along the shiny rail - excellent foot utility :) - cause everywhere else is mud, sewage and congestion - despite pie-in-the-sky GDP and such metrics.
In short - Ndii is not biased, he is incompetent. It is a good idea to squeeze the traditional MSMSE to build infrastructure for a period. Cause deserving ventures will still attract capital easily. I principally disagree with GoK mispriorities, poor execution and runaway sleaze.
The problem isn't capping of interest, the problem is runaway budget deficits. Credit growth started falling way before capping of rates, rate caps only exacerbated the situation. Its classic crowding out of private sector. Yes kenyans need to innovate in virtually all sectors, innovation and R&D cost money. We need a credit market that supports those innovations and expansion needed. VC will invest in the big markets not on SMEs. For example twiga as platform is getting funding but the small traders they sell to aren't . Its akin to Amazon getting funding but amazon sellers being hamstrung. The ill advised borrowing is hurting those traders that needed for the platform to function. So actually Ndii diagnoses is collect. To spur this economy we need CBK to cut bank reserves and to lower CBR on the monetary side. Then on the fiscal side to slash the budget and lower tax rates.
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Robina
You think economics is a antiquated field? All I am hearing you two talk is a lot of wishy washy stuff that are neither finance or economics. Here the economic question is simple. How do you increase productivity? You have i think 15 million qorkerz underemployed and in low productivity jobs. You want to increase their productivity to create more ? How do you do it? We did the infrastructure thing it has grown govt spending and not solved this problem
That's what I understand Ndii to be saying. How and why nobody is exploiting the potential of all those bodies and brains to the full. A relevant question regardless of the level of available technology.
My take on Ndii is diagnosis with neither prescription nor medication. Why should we trust his diagnosis?
He says he doesn't know. But he also seems to be of the view that it is something that cannot be fixed by the current crew, because they have neither the will nor the momentum that a new group would have.
That aside a trusted doctor can indeed diagnose a terminal illness and advise you to prepare for death :D.
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My take on Ndii is diagnosis with neither prescription nor medication. Why should we trust his diagnosis?
He says he doesn't know. But he also seems to be of the view that it is something that cannot be fixed by the current crew, because they have neither the will nor the momentum that a new group would have.
That aside a trusted doctor can indeed diagnose a terminal illness and advise you to prepare for death :D.
The hapless doctor - that's only once in a while - not a practice. Ndii never has a prescription nor medication - so his diagnoses are never to be probed further. You cannot trust what you cannot validate.
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Economic system just like other systems are not hard to understand and explain. Most Kenyans are just reckless and stupid like Uhuruto in their economic approach. Everybody is on the debt treadmill to finance nonsense like mafuta ya gari or pombe - Tala, Okash, Mshwari and Okolea, while they are feeding useless quality shit to their kids. This explains the death of micro enterprises as we do not save to cover shocks such as interest rate caps.
Corruption kills innovations. Either directly as with Little shuttle/SWVL buses or through taxation madness in case of Betin/Sportpesa; Africa Spirit/Keroche.
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Robina
Dr Ndii agrees with you that economics pseudo science and it's politics. He believes without political power technorants cannot be able to influence policy change. He says the reason why narc did well the first few years was because kibaki was indisposed most of those years. So the policy makers were able to fight crony capitalists and take hold of crucial dockets and do the recovery polcy change necessary. As soon as kibaki recovered he got recaptured by cryony capitalists and changed course. He says fhat in order to win cbk backing of their policy they had to fire mulei and bring in Nahason nyaga and later we ended with njuguna ..
On kibaki He says that kibaki was a deficit running finance Minister who was mediocre ..he cites kenren and halal projects ...if you come to think of it kibaki didn't do anything spectacular in all the years as finance minister. He also says that kibaki had kenyatta ear and was last to speak in almost all cabinet meetings so if he was a performer he had the leverage to get things done. But didnt
What is his prescription? Regime change. He believes uhuru is practicing cronycapitalism via state capture...one thing about kenyatta s is due to ngina being a miser they are very mean and want everything for themselves.
Without regime changr he says we may have to choose between two evils kiambu mafia or ruto
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Ndii's point is that treasury knows the solution but don't have the willpower to implement the solution. Everyone from CBK governor to Former economic adviser to president has pointed out the effects of going on debt binge and implications on the private sector. I believe some of the people who're now in treasury were Ndii's lecturers at UON.
We have a subdued private sector that's not able to fully take advantage of digital and demographics dividends. Kenya has massive potential the question is what type of policy needed to harness that potential.
Ndii is wrong - Treasury does not know nor have a solution. The state has limited levers to control the economy. Every successful nation has a dominant private sector - and it is a handy excuse to say the interest cap is the only impediment to growth. If there was sterling talent in Kenya - capital would trickle in via VC and FDI. The world is flat and the whining MSMEs are mostly brick & mortar models. Agric has been drifting since the 70s - when tea & coffee commodity exchanges premiered on the globe. After the "boom" they commoditized and the slaggards collapsed. Real estate, travel, oil & gas - any globalized sector soon separates the wheat from the chaff. Capital is global - Bitpesa or Cellulant has $50m from mzungu pensioners. Just as digital - demographic dividend will kick in regardless of interest caps. Cause low dependency ratio means more savings, better education, better manpower - more capital flows to tap it.
Ndiiconomics are antiques - outdated stuff. Same ideas since Julius Caesar hit the Mediterranean to trade ships for grains and the Egyptian bride. It is why we grapple with the reality of mjengo crew tarmacking along the shiny rail - excellent foot utility :) - cause everywhere else is mud, sewage and congestion - despite pie-in-the-sky GDP and such metrics.
In short - Ndii is not biased, he is incompetent. It is a good idea to squeeze the traditional MSMSE to build infrastructure for a period. Cause deserving ventures will still attract capital easily. I principally disagree with GoK mispriorities, poor execution and runaway sleaze.
The problem isn't capping of interest, the problem is runaway budget deficits. Credit growth started falling way before capping of rates, rate caps only exacerbated the situation. Its classic crowding out of private sector. Yes kenyans need to innovate in virtually all sectors, innovation and R&D cost money. We need a credit market that supports those innovations and expansion needed. VC will invest in the big markets not on SMEs. For example twiga as platform is getting funding but the small traders they sell to aren't . Its akin to Amazon getting funding but amazon sellers being hamstrung. The ill advised borrowing is hurting those traders that needed for the platform to function. So actually Ndii diagnoses is collect. To spur this economy we need CBK to cut bank reserves and to lower CBR on the monetary side. Then on the fiscal side to slash the budget and lower tax rates.
Alleluia. Runaway govt spending is the biggest problem in Kenya. It'll be the new Greece. Keep raising taxes on the middle class till they can't afford underwear.
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My take on Ndii is diagnosis with neither prescription nor medication. Why should we trust his diagnosis?
He says he doesn't know. But he also seems to be of the view that it is something that cannot be fixed by the current crew, because they have neither the will nor the momentum that a new group would have.
That aside a trusted doctor can indeed diagnose a terminal illness and advise you to prepare for death :D.
The hapless doctor - that's only once in a while - not a practice. Ndii never has a prescription nor medication - so his diagnoses are never to be probed further. You cannot trust what you cannot validate.
AM losing you Robina. Validate??? Its already been validated that spend like a drunk, bills will pile...
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Robina
Dr Ndii agrees with you that economics pseudo science and it's politics. He believes without political power technorants cannot be able to influence policy change. He says the reason why narc did well the first few years was because kibaki was indisposed most of those years. So the policy makers were able to fight crony capitalists and take hold of crucial dockets and do the recovery polcy change necessary. As soon as kibaki recovered he got recaptured by cryony capitalists and changed course. He says fhat in order to win cbk backing of their policy they had to fire mulei and bring in Nahason nyaga and later we ended with njuguna ..
On kibaki He says that kibaki was a deficit running finance Minister who was mediocre ..he cites kenren and halal projects ...if you come to think of it kibaki didn't do anything spectacular in all the years as finance minister. He also says that kibaki had kenyatta ear and was last to speak in almost all cabinet meetings so if he was a performer he had the leverage to get things done. But didnt
What is his prescription? Regime change. He believes uhuru is practicing cronycapitalism via state capture...one thing about kenyatta s is due to ngina being a miser they are very mean and want everything for themselves.
Without regime changr he says we may have to choose between two evils kiambu mafia or ruto
Ndii diagnosis -
a. technocrats perform if given freehand
b. Kibaki the Finance Minister and President was never a performer
c. technocrats delivered in the early NARC days
The Treasury is a political function so I will restrict "technocrats" to the CBK. If Andy Mulei delivered in 2003-07 due to the indisposed Kibaki giving him a freehand, what stops the CBK from performing today? It is more independent under the new constitution and the celebrated Dr Patrick Njoroge, no? Policy bodies exist to stop state capture and ensure stability over political tides or electoral seesaws. It was never Kibaki's job to do what Ndii is faulting of him. Equally, Uhuru job is the greater GDP aka fiscal policy. "State capture" is squarely CBK's fault as the economic police. Mobile loan shylocks have been allowed by the CBK despite the interest cap - not by the Treasury. Even the dodgy forex bureaus at JKIA monopolized by Mama Ngina are de jure a CBK item.
Another analogy on state capture: in telco, CA is responsible for Safcom state capture, not the ICT Ministry. The general law is there but declaring monopoly and such policies are CA domain.
Monetary policy - operational quacks & policing. Interest rates & reserve ratio. Pure economics. Are people playing by the rules? Smaller impact on the economy. CBK job
Fiscal policy - overall economic management and bigger picture. Budget & taxes. Political economics. How is the economy doing? Bigger impact on the economy. Treasury job
Ndii prescription - regime change aka revolution is not a practical solution so his story ends at diagnosis. For instance, did Ndii or the technocracy propose any changes to clause 231 to the BBI, Punguza Mizigo or the 2010 CoE? Any push from his lot to reform the CBK Act esp to effect clause 231(3) on CBK independence? The technocrats at CBK have only so much power even if independent. This is by design and the global phenomenon. Real power rests with the Treasury and politicians.
In short - Ndii cannot be snide from the ivory tower and claim to know better. That's technocracy. Think tanks. Talk shops. He must fold his sleeves, square it out with Uhuru or Njoroge or MJ for power - then run the economy. Else he is just a columnist and one more blogger like we Nipateans.
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CBk and Treasury I have to work together. Anyway Ndii campaigned for opposition and lost so there was no room for his ideas. Uhuru came with economic policy of public spending via infrastructure as the anchor of growth. He had similar problems of money in the first years of his govt due to usual elections slow down. Uhuru was determined to pursue his polocy and treasury was tasked in making it happen. This is the second time in less than 10 years ke is implementing austerity. If Uhuru is lucky fo secure more funding for agendazero he is going to abandon austerity and go back on spending binge. As for @ndii he has made peace wjth true fact he will never get political power to be implement his ideas.
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Ndii toxic politics appeal to noone. He contributed to the NASA loss. It shows his poverty of practice. Strictly a technocrat. The economics you say is pseudoscience needs politicians - a breed much better than technocrats.
Uhuru's borrow & build is only wrong partially. Good intentions - poor execution - mostly in the infrastructure priorities. He copied Kibaki Nyayo without some strategy rigor. Congested Nairobi is the biggest infrastructure deficit in Kenya - it literally slashes productivity of the biggest economic center. No brainer. Bypasses and flyovers can only do so much as advanced cities have shown. Followed by rural road network of murrams - not SGR - affects agriculture. Then power efficiency & cost - fix the power in productive areas - industrial areas in Nairobi, Thika, Mombasa, Nakuru, etc. Not last-miles that increase cost and blackout. Then labor cost - this is out of GoK hands with new katiba. TIVET is great. Then credit. The soft issues of permits, registration, taxes & SEZs, etc - "ease of doing business" - are a distant fourth or fifth. Manufacturing needs a few more things like banning mitumba, used cars or protectionism. Sewage systems & housing that Ndii alludes to doesn't feature.
Ndii's views make little sense to me. Credit access or capital is a far inferior factor to right infrastructure, energy and labor. He has it backwards.
Big 4 - not all about the economy. Food, housing, health are social GoK responsibilities. Manufacturing is the only economic hard nut. BBI NHS and REB proposals - if the gossip is true - feed into Big Two. So it is dicey that BBI is a distraction. I don't see Big Zero unless shit hits the fun.
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No need to complicate this. Gov has a job to do. National gov to provide about 34 functions. County gov to provide 17 functions. I wish gov could restrict itself to that. For instance Uhuru job it provide security, roads, electricity, water,social services including education, welfare. I expect my governor to make sure health, county roads, alcohol control, agriclutural servies are available.If they focus on that without getting into mumbo-jumbo of growing the economy - then we will get somewhere.
Otherwise if running the country was economics - Dr Ndii would be our president.
One wishes there was an index to track government services...ease of doing is good start...but something that track say all 50-60 gov services - and we can use to evaluate gov. For example what is their score on security? Their score on quality of roads?
Otherwise economics or GDP - can be distorting - esp if for example - we start shipping oil - gov would certainly claim credit for a natural resource.
Ndii toxic politics appeal to noone. He contributed to the NASA loss. It shows his poverty of practice. Strictly a technocrat. The economics you say is pseudoscience needs politicians - a breed much better than technocrats.
Uhuru's borrow & build is only wrong partially. Good intentions - poor execution - mostly in the infrastructure priorities. He copied Kibaki Nyayo without some strategy rigor. Congested Nairobi is the biggest infrastructure deficit in Kenya - it literally slashes productivity of the biggest economic center. No brainer. Bypasses and flyovers can only do so much as advanced cities have shown. Followed by rural road network of murrams - not SGR - affects agriculture. Then power efficiency & cost - fix the power in productive areas - industrial areas in Nairobi, Thika, Mombasa, Nakuru, etc. Not last-miles that increase cost and blackout. Then labor cost - this is out of GoK hands with new katiba. TIVET is great. Then credit. The soft issues of permits, registration, taxes & SEZs, etc - "ease of doing business" - are a distant fourth or fifth. Manufacturing needs a few more things like banning mitumba, used cars or protectionism. Sewage systems & housing that Ndii alludes to doesn't feature.
Ndii's views make little sense to me. Credit access or capital is a far inferior factor to right infrastructure, energy and labor. He has it backwards.
Big 4 - not all about the economy. Food, housing, health are social GoK responsibilities. Manufacturing is the only economic hard nut. BBI NHS and REB proposals - if the gossip is true - feed into Big Two. So it is dicey that BBI is a distraction. I don't see Big Zero unless shit hits the fun.
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This is Uhuru's Job.
Function of National Government Part 1 (Fourth Schedule, Article 185 (2), 186 (1) and 187 (2)
1. Foreign affairs, foreign policy and international trade.
2. The use of international water and water resources.
3. Immigration and citizenship
4. The relationship between religion and state.
5. Language policy and the promotion of official and local languages.
6. National defence and the use of national defence services.
7. Police services, including-
(a) The setting of standards of recruitment, training of police and use of police services;
(b) Criminal law; and
(c) Correctional services.
8. Courts.
9. National economic policy and planning.
10. Monetary policy, currency, banking (including central banking), the incorporation and regulation of banking, insurance and financial corporations.
11. National statistics and data on population, the economy and society generally.
12. Intellectual property rights
13. Labour standards.
14. Consumer protection, including standards for social security and professional pension plans.
15. Education policy, standards, curricula, examinations and the granting of university charters.
16. Universities, tertiary educational institutions and other institutions of research and higher learning and primary schools, special 17. education, secondary schools and special education institutions.
18. Promotion of sports and sports education.
19. Transport and communications, including, in particular-
(a) Road traffic;
(b) The construction and operation of national trunk roads;
(c) Standard for the construction and maintenance of other roads by counties;
(d) Railways;
(e) Pipelines;
(f) Marine navigations;
(g) Civil aviation;
(h) Space travel;
(i) Postal services;
(j) Telecommunication; and
(k) Radio television broadcasting.
National public works.
20. Housing policy.
General principles of land planning and the co-ordination of planning by the counties.
22. Protection of the environment and natural resources with a view to establishing a durable and sustainable system of development, including, in particular-
(a) Fishing, hunting and gathering;
(b) Protection of animal and wildlife;
(c) Water protection, securing sufficient residual water, hydraulic engineering and the safety of dams; and
(d) Energy policy.
23. National referral health facilities.
24. Disaster management.
Ancient and historical monument of national importance.
26. National election.
Health policy.
28. Agricultural policy.
29. Veterinary policy.
30. Energy policy including electricity and gas reticulation and energy regulation.
Capacity building and technical assistance to the counties.
32. Public investment.
33. National betting, casinos and other forms of gambling.
34. Tourism policy and development.
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My take on Ndii is diagnosis with neither prescription nor medication. Why should we trust his diagnosis?
He says he doesn't know. But he also seems to be of the view that it is something that cannot be fixed by the current crew, because they have neither the will nor the momentum that a new group would have.
That aside a trusted doctor can indeed diagnose a terminal illness and advise you to prepare for death :D.
The hapless doctor - that's only once in a while - not a practice. Ndii never has a prescription nor medication - so his diagnoses are never to be probed further. You cannot trust what you cannot validate.
AM losing you Robina. Validate??? Its already been validated that spend like a drunk, bills will pile...
Spend spree is the Ndii diagnosis - his fix is a reversal of this policy or direction. The decries breakneck "borrow & build". No regime has been frugal since the 80s. Jubilee problem is priority - Moi was hamstrung by donors - Kibaki spent big yet no crisis happened as Ndii posits. The difference between Kibaki and Uhuru is priority - not spending. After Moi error - the infra deficit was basic highways, fibre, power, etc. After Kibaki, the hanging fruit was no longer city highways, SGR and last-miles. There are more optimal investments now - so it is harebrained to copy-paste Kibaki. However Kenya still needs to build infra.
Traditional banking is suffering everywhere - these MSMEs will not manage to run on 20% interest - they whined for long before MPs and GoK capped it. CRB and such were established to aid their credit rating. Saccos and VCs are the new paradigm - you must save to borrow or have some serious IP to attract local or global VC. Sugar is unprofitable - with airlines and other sectors - capital industry is not immune. It evolves. Infra binge is only a handy excuse.
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AM losing you Robina. Validate??? Its already been validated that spend like a drunk, bills will pile...
I.e. Ndii's theories have never been adopted - we don't have evidence they would work. I know they wouldn't.
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AM losing you Robina. Validate??? Its already been validated that spend like a drunk, bills will pile...
I.e. Ndii's theories have never been adopted - we don't have evidence they would work. I know they wouldn't.
Ndii theories were adopted during initial narc regime. He was in the think tank that drafted recovery from moi era
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That's lovely but this thread is about the economy. We are focused on Ndii's bile and voodoo ideas. Resources are scarce - whether national, county, corporate or personal. So we must flog the strategy horse now and then - hither and thither.
This is Uhuru's Job.
Function of National Government Part 1 (Fourth Schedule, Article 185 (2), 186 (1) and 187 (2)
1. Foreign affairs, foreign policy and international trade.
2. The use of international water and water resources.
3. Immigration and citizenship
4. The relationship between religion and state.
5. Language policy and the promotion of official and local languages.
6. National defence and the use of national defence services.
7. Police services, including-
(a) The setting of standards of recruitment, training of police and use of police services;
(b) Criminal law; and
(c) Correctional services.
8. Courts.
9. National economic policy and planning.
10. Monetary policy, currency, banking (including central banking), the incorporation and regulation of banking, insurance and financial corporations.
11. National statistics and data on population, the economy and society generally.
12. Intellectual property rights
13. Labour standards.
14. Consumer protection, including standards for social security and professional pension plans.
15. Education policy, standards, curricula, examinations and the granting of university charters.
16. Universities, tertiary educational institutions and other institutions of research and higher learning and primary schools, special 17. education, secondary schools and special education institutions.
18. Promotion of sports and sports education.
19. Transport and communications, including, in particular-
(a) Road traffic;
(b) The construction and operation of national trunk roads;
(c) Standard for the construction and maintenance of other roads by counties;
(d) Railways;
(e) Pipelines;
(f) Marine navigations;
(g) Civil aviation;
(h) Space travel;
(i) Postal services;
(j) Telecommunication; and
(k) Radio television broadcasting.
National public works.
20. Housing policy.
General principles of land planning and the co-ordination of planning by the counties.
22. Protection of the environment and natural resources with a view to establishing a durable and sustainable system of development, including, in particular-
(a) Fishing, hunting and gathering;
(b) Protection of animal and wildlife;
(c) Water protection, securing sufficient residual water, hydraulic engineering and the safety of dams; and
(d) Energy policy.
23. National referral health facilities.
24. Disaster management.
Ancient and historical monument of national importance.
26. National election.
Health policy.
28. Agricultural policy.
29. Veterinary policy.
30. Energy policy including electricity and gas reticulation and energy regulation.
Capacity building and technical assistance to the counties.
32. Public investment.
33. National betting, casinos and other forms of gambling.
34. Tourism policy and development.
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AM losing you Robina. Validate??? Its already been validated that spend like a drunk, bills will pile...
I.e. Ndii's theories have never been adopted - we don't have evidence they would work. I know they wouldn't.
Ndii theories were adopted during initial narc regime. He was in the think tank that drafted recovery from moi era
He wrote papers - don't conflate them with the world. From his quarrelsome bitter-shrew persona - i doubt he could wield such influence. I am told there is a plethora of preneurs who claim to have "invented" M-Pesa.
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Gov has no time to really think economics when basics have not be nailed. They need to focus on nailing the basic of what constitutes governance. For instance security is probably top priority investment - otherwise you'll have south africa kind of mess. Obviously most of what gov do is not "economical". The gov should focus on providing governance - and the private sector can grow the profit & the economy.
It a wrong premise to think Gov main job is to grow the economy or provide jobs. It isn't. It citizens job to grow their economies by working harder & smarter - creating SMEs - and eventually big enterprise.
The frustration people have - of current gov - are the same frustration they had in previous gov - because they want gov to do what it cannot do.
That's lovely but this thread is about the economy. We are focused on Ndii's bile and voodoo ideas. Resources are scarce - whether national, county, corporate or personal. So we must flog the strategy horse now and then - hither and thither.
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True. Govt work is basic security. Then education, health and houses. Poor economy or joblessness of course exacerbate crime and poverty. So it become a priority as strategy. A means to the end.
Lakini usitupimie hewa – economy is issue numero uno. “Bei ya maisha imepanda”, “Kazi kwa vijana” – are economy wrapped in Kibra slang by Ruto or Raila.
Brick banking worked 20 years ago - when City Hoppa- borne farmer in gumboots showed up from Kiamunyi or Kinangop - to confirm balance or renew checkbook. They had mburoti and Toyota 404 logbook – so rates were cheap. Now these dot-com crew want cheap loans with no payslip and zero collateral – haiwesmake – no banker will touch them without massive cover. Just as Nyayo Bus or old grey city cab is gone – capital has morphed into Sacco or VC model. Both provide collateral in savings or IP assets. Noone owes you 10% loan – for your briefcase website SOHO – when Treasury offer 10% guaranteed returns. The defaults on Fuliza or Tala must be sky-high – so the rate is 90%. That is not “credit” – it suicide - financial kumi kumi can kill - only gamblers and lifists like Pundit and hk can indulge.
The interest cap noises are shifts and adjustment – as banking go digital, global, commodity, etc – like everything else. SGR is a scapegoat.
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Digital loans are replacing loans from friends, relatives and shopkeeper... and help deal with temporary financial shocks so we should not rush to regulate it.Eventually with good credit scoring the default rate will drop leading to lower interest rate
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I agree we shouldn't curtail free flow of capital. But that same freedom apply to bankers going for risk-free TBonds. The runaway rates show the precarious and the paradox in MSME hurrahs about the cap scrap. These lot borrowing at suicidal rates - they are delusional to think banks can lend them at a fraction of that. Tala is fully online credit - no office, no clerks, thin overheads - they are in San Mateo. They could be facing a cliff with reverse of caps - although they operate many countries. Banking is dead. Long live banking.
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Fuliza - from Safaricom - in six months - have lend 80B.It's harder for people to default on M-pesa linked - because they have no escape room. For digital loans - I think they need to go for bigger loans - max loan from Branch(Tala) and 50 such - are around 50K (500usd) - so they are micro-loan that are just good for temporary financial stress - but they need to move to say 3-5K usd - and they can challenge the banks.
Anyway all these micro-loans - combined - are lending billions of kshs - possibly 2-3b dollars now - and they just got started.
I agree we shouldn't strangle free flow of capital. The runaway rates show the precarious and the paradox in MSME hurrahs about the cap scrap. These lot borrowing at suicidal rates - they are delusional to think banks can lend them at a fraction of that. Tala is fully online credit - no office, no clerks, thin overheads - they are in San Mateo. They could be facing a cliff with reverse of caps - although they operate many countries. Banking is dead. Long live banking.
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Gov has no time to really think economics when basics have not be nailed. They need to focus on nailing the basic of what constitutes governance. For instance security is probably top priority investment - otherwise you'll have south africa kind of mess. Obviously most of what gov do is not "economical". The gov should focus on providing governance - and the private sector can grow the profit & the economy.
It a wrong premise to think Gov main job is to grow the economy or provide jobs. It isn't. It citizens job to grow their economies by working harder & smarter - creating SMEs - and eventually big enterprise.
The frustration people have - of current gov - are the same frustration they had in previous gov - because they want gov to do what it cannot do.
That's lovely but this thread is about the economy. We are focused on Ndii's bile and voodoo ideas. Resources are scarce - whether national, county, corporate or personal. So we must flog the strategy horse now and then - hither and thither.
Government cant nail anything without addressing the economy. Where else are you going to get the revenue to "nail the basics"? At some point loans have to repaid, even if you rollover debt it means you can't borrow more without addressing the economy. By addressing the economy it means not borrowing and spending like drunken sailors, taxing citizen to death and over regulating.
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Why the genocidal rates - just cause they can? How do you see reverse of caps impacting Fuliza?
Fuliza - from Safariom - in six months - have lend 80B.It's harder for people to default on M-pesa linked - because they have no escape room. For digital loans - I think they need to go for bigger loans - max loan from Branch(Tala) and 50 such - are around 50K (500usd) - so they are micro-loan that are just good for temporary financial stress - but they need to move to say 3-5K usd - and they can challenge the banks.
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I agree we shouldn't curtail free flow of capital. But that same freedom apply to bankers going for risk-free TBonds. The runaway rates show the precarious and the paradox in MSME hurrahs about the cap scrap. These lot borrowing at suicidal rates - they are delusional to think banks can lend them at a fraction of that. Tala is fully online credit - no office, no clerks, thin overheads - they are in San Mateo. They could be facing a cliff with reverse of caps - although they operate many countries. Banking is dead. Long live banking.
The dominant players in fintech in kenya are the banks. KCB, Equity,cooperative and CBA are the main players, actually pure fintech have less than 30% of the marketshare in terms of mobile loan portfolio. Cooperative for example offers 4% month late for up 200k .
Scrapping of interest will ensure SME to gets of between 13% to 20% for sizeable amount from 100k to 1m. The key here is those loans will now be available also the Tbills rates most likely will go up so private sector will soon be attractive customers.
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Gov economics should not affect you as private individual beyond the portion you're taxed. How gov borrows or spend should ideally not be our business. Our business should be getting gov services. Assume Gov is Safaricom - you don't care about their internal operations, who and when they borow - all you care about is getting telcom services from them.
And that is where the conversation should start and end. Is gok giving me good roads, electricity, security, education, health and 50 services that both level of gov need to do.
The rest honestly should be finance minister and his team worries - how much debt they need to roll over - when to float eurobond - that is NONE of our business. These technical details about fiscal and monetary policies should be left to treasury wonks to figure out.
Rather than worrying about kenya going broke - we should worry about the very bad roads in your locality. Rather than engaging in pseudo-economics - we should be giving gov hard time because honestly having 20% paved roads is bad - whatever they need to do - I don't care - treasury should figure out - and fund paving of our roads
Once the gov has paved roads, provided me with electricity, water and security - I should no go ask them for jobs. That is not part of 50 gov services - it's not gov mandate to provide jobs - they will employ the civil servants they need to deliver their mandate. Individuals then should till their farms, deliver produces and get paid. Or go to school, acquire skills and look for jobs or start small enterprises.
In short - if you go now and ask people in my county - we will happily vote Jubilee - because we see low seal tarmac everywhere - we see electricity everywhere - we see water (now dead dream) coming - if Rotich overborrowed or didn't stick to fiscal policy or budget deficit mumbo-jumbo is not our business.I also don't care that SGR broke the bank - I care that I am able to travel to Mombasa comfortably and cheaply - and bring my containers stress free.
In short drive conversation from mumbo-jumbo about infrastructure driven economic growth being less optimal - to what do you need from gov? - you need infrastructure - the rest (like underperforming private sector) is our fault. If people are not able to convert all the new shinny roads, electricity to economic benefits and lift themselves out of poverty - the gov cannot do anything.
Government cant nail anything without addressing the economy. Where else are you going to get the revenue to "nail the basics"? At some point loans have to repaid, even if you rollover debt it means you can't borrow more without addressing the economy. By addressing the economy it means not borrowing and spending like drunken sailors, taxing citizen to death and over regulating.
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Rate caps - is only affecting big risky loans- these micro-loans are not kind of loans to be impacted by anything including interest rate - too small. Now rate cap is needed for say someone borrowing 20m to build a flat - that huge risk the bank is taking - so they need to price it at maybe 15-18% - rather than 13% when treasury is borrowing at 10%.
Why the genocidal rates - just cause they can? How do you see reverse of caps impacting Fuliza?
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Gov economics should not affect you as private individual beyond the portion you're taxed. How gov borrows or spend should ideally not be our business. Our business should be getting gov services. Assume Gov is Safaricom - you don't care about their internal operations, who and when they borow - all you care about is getting telcom services from them.
And that is where the conversation should start and end. Is gok giving me good roads, electricity, security, education, health and 50 services that both level of gov need to do.
The rest honestly should be finance minister and his team worries - how much debt they need to roll over - when to float eurobond - that is NONE of our business. These technical details about fiscal and monetary policies should be left to treasury wonks to figure out.
Rather than worrying about kenya going broke - we should worry about the very bad roads in your locality. Rather than engaging in pseudo-economics - we should be giving gov hard time because honestly having 20% paved roads is bad - whatever they need to do - I don't care - treasury should figure out - and fund paving of our roads
Once the gov has paved roads, provided me with electricity, water and security - I should no go ask them for jobs. That is not part of 50 gov services - it's not gov mandate to provide jobs - they will employ the civil servants they need to deliver their mandate. Individuals then should till their farms, deliver produces and get paid. Or go to school, acquire skills and look for jobs or start small enterprises.
In short - if you go now and ask people in my county - we will happily vote Jubilee - because we see low seal tarmac everywhere - we see electricity everywhere - we see water (now dead dream) coming - if Rotich overborrowed or didn't stick to fiscal policy or budget deficit mumbo-jumbo is not our business.I also don't care that SGR broke the bank - I care that I am able to travel to Mombasa comfortably and cheaply - and bring my containers stress free.
In short drive conversation from mumbo-jumbo about infrastructure driven economic growth being less optimal - to what do you need from gov? - you need infrastructure - the rest (like underperforming private sector) is our fault. If people are not able to convert all the new shinny roads, electricity to economic benefits and lift themselves out of poverty - the gov cannot do anything.
Government cant nail anything without addressing the economy. Where else are you going to get the revenue to "nail the basics"? At some point loans have to repaid, even if you rollover debt it means you can't borrow more without addressing the economy. By addressing the economy it means not borrowing and spending like drunken sailors, taxing citizen to death and over regulating.
You can't be serious pundit, this is macroeconomics 1:01 , budget deficits and its effects on private sector are real and consequences dire.
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Give me road, railway, ports, piped water, modern sewage and f.uck budget deficits & macro-economics. I had rather we became Greece than a poor man worrying about his debt level while living in grass thatched house (micro-economics 101).
Th talk about macro-economics are a conversation to be had in the developed world...where people wait for fed rate like their life depend on it..because they already fixed the basics...and are just optimizing.
Here in 3rd world our conversation should be on infrastructure, housing and all sorts of deficits. We should be angry to about really bad roads.
You can't be serious pundit, this is macroeconomics 1:01 , budget deficits and its effects on private sector are real and consequences dire.
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Give me road, railway, ports, piped water, modern sewage and f.uck budget deficits & macro-economics. I had rather we became Greece than a poor man worrying about his debt level while living in grass thatched house (micro-economics 101).
Th talk about macro-economics are a conversation to be had in the developed world...where people wait for fed rate like their life depend on it..because they already fixed the basics...and are just optimizing.
Here in 3rd world our conversation should be on infrastructure, housing and all sorts of deficits. We should be angry to about really bad roads.
You can't be serious pundit, this is macroeconomics 1:01 , budget deficits and its effects on private sector are real and consequences dire.
With those budget deficits you are guranteed that the poor man living in thatched house will be in that house for almost entinity with idle electricity connection and tarmacked road which would be underutilized and finally fall into disrepair. Economics is fickle bitch.
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I agree with Pundit about infra - gov should build as much as possible - as frugally or optimally as possible. Private enterprises need to re-invent themselves as the capital market evolves into VCs and whatnot. Tala and Branch are from Silicon or Wadi Valley or London. As MSMEs adapt to new capital models - as the demographic, digital and infra dividends kick in - VCs will pour in. Heck Goldman Sachs is here. Private sector will cry for now but GoK should not dither on laying down steel and gravel.
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@Robina, there is someone who agrees with you on the impact of these genocidal rates..... Prof. Bateman holds some very radical views that Mpesa has not really been of benefit to bottom of the pyramid who it was meant to impact... sample this:-
".....Re-evaluating Kenya's M-Pesa mobile money platform
As time goes by, the claims made on behalf of M-Pesa as an innovative poverty reduction and local development engine in Africa, notably by US-based economists Tavneet Suri and William Jack, are now looking rather silly. Though investors and CEOs are beginning to make out like bandits, as expected, we argue that fintech is emerging as a hugely problematic technology for the poor. Unless fintech is brought to heel and embedded in pro-poor structures and institutions, the long-term damage to the poor is likely going to be significant. The rapidly proliferating community- and cooperatively-owned local alternatives to Uber, for example, show why it should be done and how it can be done....."
I have interacted with him, he holds very contrary views on the benefits of Mpesa and especially doesn't believe that it has been beneficial to bottom of the pyramid, especially on the very debilitating rates like the tula's, fuliza's etc.. On the contrary i have argued that the wholesome impact of ease of exchange of money has an enormous positive impact and ripple effect to emerging economies especially where banking was not very well established. He still won't be convinced and i let him be!
You can read more of this article here.... https://africasacountry.com/2019/10/kenyas-mobile-money-revolution
Why the genocidal rates - just cause they can? How do you see reverse of caps impacting Fuliza?
Fuliza - from Safariom - in six months - have lend 80B.It's harder for people to default on M-pesa linked - because they have no escape room. For digital loans - I think they need to go for bigger loans - max loan from Branch(Tala) and 50 such - are around 50K (500usd) - so they are micro-loan that are just good for temporary financial stress - but they need to move to say 3-5K usd - and they can challenge the banks.
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Now we are talking - gov should continue with infrastructure-led-jobless-incomeless -growth - once you lay infrastructure - it done and dusted. You just maintain. You don't find a lot of digging around going on in developed world. The expressways built by Eisneguy (forget his name) are still the engine of growth in US. The rail network laid in 17th and 18th century still running. Gok at our level is about steel and cement - the software issues will come later.
I agree with Pundit about infra - gov should build as much as possible - as frugally or optimally as possible. Private enterprises need to re-invent themselves as the capital market evolves into VCs and whatnot. Tala and Branch are from Silicon or Wadi Valley or London. As MSMEs adapt to new capital models - as the demographic, digital and infra dividends kick in - VCs will pour in. Heck Goldman Sachs is here. Private sector will cry for now but GoK should not dither on laying down steel and gravel.
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M-Pesa the patform business is excellent multiplier effect. It creates true financial inclusion by banking the unbankable. It's the shylock M-Shwari and Talas that are bad. The M-Pesa ecosystem of Bodas, Ubers, chamas is marvelous. There has been no grander invention in Kenya. Of course they should hire me and another MJ short of that. The Tusker dwarf I have many doubts over he.
M-Pesa is IaaS - an innovation highway. Zamunda global ambassador you should be proud. In the past you were merely known for Kipchoge - now mzungu hear Kenya and think M-Pesa innovation. Unlocks so many avenues for small man all the way up. With ringtone and cake sellers all over. You cam argue it better or more impactful than Facebook or WhatsApp for local folks. If they had nailed fintial - social fintech - with Zwuup! - they would easily eclipse Libra.
@Robina, there is someone who agrees with you on the impact of these genocidal rates..... Prof. Bateman holds some very radical views that Mpesa has not really been of benefit to bottom of the pyramid who it was meant to impact... sample this:-
".....Re-evaluating Kenya's M-Pesa mobile money platform
As time goes by, the claims made on behalf of M-Pesa as an innovative poverty reduction and local development engine in Africa, notably by US-based economists Tavneet Suri and William Jack, are now looking rather silly. Though investors and CEOs are beginning to make out like bandits, as expected, we argue that fintech is emerging as a hugely problematic technology for the poor. Unless fintech is brought to heel and embedded in pro-poor structures and institutions, the long-term damage to the poor is likely going to be significant. The rapidly proliferating community- and cooperatively-owned local alternatives to Uber, for example, show why it should be done and how it can be done....."
I have interacted with him, he holds very contrary views on the benefits of Mpesa and especially doesn't believe that it has been beneficial to bottom of the pyramid, especially on the very debilitating rates like the tula's, fuliza's etc.. On the contrary i have argued that the wholesome impact of ease of exchange of money has an enormous positive impact and ripple effect to emerging economies especially where banking was not very well established. He still won't be convinced and i let him be!
You can read more of this article here.... https://africasacountry.com/2019/10/kenyas-mobile-money-revolution
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Now we are talking - gov should continue with infrastructure-led-jobless-incomeless -growth - once you lay infrastructure - it done and dusted. You just maintain. You don't find a lot of digging around going on in developed world. The expressways built by Eisneguy (forget his name) are still the engine of growth in US. The rail network laid in 17th and 18th century still running. Gok at our level is about steel and cement - the software issues will come later.
I agree with Pundit about infra - gov should build as much as possible - as frugally or optimally as possible. Private enterprises need to re-invent themselves as the capital market evolves into VCs and whatnot. Tala and Branch are from Silicon or Wadi Valley or London. As MSMEs adapt to new capital models - as the demographic, digital and infra dividends kick in - VCs will pour in. Heck Goldman Sachs is here. Private sector will cry for now but GoK should not dither on laying down steel and gravel.
Pundit Eisenhower freeway system was self financed by gas taxes and motor vehicle taxes. Actually Eisenhower stipulated that the freeway funding not to add to budget deficits. If all the roads were being constructed by the ridiculously high taxes we pay for petrol and excise duty on cars and those funds being ring-fenced, that would be perfect. Eisenhower created highway trust fund and the freeways were being built as "pay as you go".
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The point is those freeways once constructed will last many years with occasional repair and maintenance.Whatever the financing model we adopt we need to bridge our infrastructure deficit.My proposal is we should not burden the current generation with taxes or levies..we are building for the future...we should borrow 50 or 100 yr century bonds. .and once & for all bridge our deficit.We can borrow 50 or 100B...and go into massive road,rail,power, water, irrigation, schools, colleges and whatever need some cement & steel poured.We then close that chapter and let future generations repay the loan.The short termism of Kibaki that gov should spur the little economy and the growth will trickle down is absolutely cowardly and lack of ambition.We have to dream as big as people who built those huge freeways when US had few cars or what Chinese are doing.. building for the future.
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I also see the timing as perfect.. Kenya is approaching the demographic dividend. This infra investment will pan out. Silicon Valley and California must have been here 1930. China 1980. The short term view is cashflow - SMB or private sector capital crunch - long-term looks good. As manpower turns the corner - it a big synergy with the global taps flowing in. Such breakneck scale would have been overkill in the 90s - but now it can be a leapfrog. Big potential - the stars are lining up.
The point is those freeways once constructed will last many years with occasional repair and maintenance.Whatever the financing model we adopt we need to bridge our infrastructure deficit.My proposal is we should not burden the current generation with taxes or levies..we are building for the future...we should borrow 50 or 100 yr century bonds. .and once & for all bridge our deficit.We can borrow 50 or 100B...and go into massive road,rail,power, water, irrigation, schools, colleges and whatever need some cement & steel poured.We then close that chapter and let future generations repay the loan.The short termism of Kibaki that gov should spur the little economy and the growth will trickle down is absolutely cowardly and lack of ambition.We have to dream as big as people who built those huge freeways when US had few cars or what Chinese are doing.. building for the future.
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We are alteast 6yrs before we get demographic transition- but well part of the country like central already transition to more adults than kids.
Yes I agree - our private sector need to be as aggressive, imaginative and innovative as public sector in getting capital. We use to berate public sector for lack of investment but ever since China happens, Afdb, Eurobond - there is no shortage of funds - we can borrow or leverage.
The private sector should know there is almost bottomless low interest money available out there - they just need to borrow. Tech & Energy sectors are doing great - tapping into the money. I don't see the real estate & construction doing the same - plus so many other sectors.We don't have to relie on commercial banks for borrowing.What is stopping say our retail & wholesale sector(super-market) from taping into global finances?
I also see the timing as perfect.. Kenya is approaching the demographic dividend. This infra investment will pan out. Silicon Valley and California must have been here 1930. China 1980. The short term view is cashflow - SMB or private sector capital crunch - long-term looks good. As manpower turns the corner - it a big synergy with the global taps flowing in. Such breakneck scale would have been overkill in the 90s - but now it can be a leapfrog. Big potential - the stars are lining up.
The point is those freeways once constructed will last many years with occasional repair and maintenance.Whatever the financing model we adopt we need to bridge our infrastructure deficit.My proposal is we should not burden the current generation with taxes or levies..we are building for the future...we should borrow 50 or 100 yr century bonds. .and once & for all bridge our deficit.We can borrow 50 or 100B...and go into massive road,rail,power, water, irrigation, schools, colleges and whatever need some cement & steel poured.We then close that chapter and let future generations repay the loan.The short termism of Kibaki that gov should spur the little economy and the growth will trickle down is absolutely cowardly and lack of ambition.We have to dream as big as people who built those huge freeways when US had few cars or what Chinese are doing.. building for the future.
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Entitled with low ambition. Many businesses think GoK or banks owe them capital. Which is just silly. It is your business - it is your job to hunt for resources. They also think small - so you see a company like say Virtual City or Seven Seas or Craft Silicon - or even Cellulant - they think $50m is heaven. Of course it isn't - cause you need that size of seed to get off the ground - properly scale fast & furious. They don;t look global. Cellulant you can see is a barely successful business - but they are 15 years old "start-up" only in a handful of African countries. While Uber , Stripe are 10 years old and global - with billions in VC. Folks like Safcom think they are big - with less than a B in the bank. Building tech like satellite or buying out startups is a big deal for them - it out of their small mental box. They are such a tiny company with slow, uninspiring ideas and vision.
If you look at McKinsey reports across the board and compare - typically if you do an analysis of a SMB in the west - you find there is about 5 to 10% headroom for optimization at best. In Kenya - the KQ report made my jaw drop - with 200% room for improvement. Very inefficient business. Safcom would think you're crazy if you ask them to do an external SWOT. They are so successful, right?
GoK borrowing big and beating private sector is good - even Safcom should be declared monopoly for their own good. These spoilt brats need tough love.
We are alteast 6yrs before we get demographic transition- but well part of the country like central already transition to more adults than kids.
Yes I agree - our private sector need to be as aggressive, imaginative and innovative as public sector in getting capital. We use to berate public sector for lack of investment but ever since China happens, Afdb, Eurobond - there is no shortage of funds - we can borrow or leverage.
The private sector should know there is almost bottomless low interest money available out there - they just need to borrow. Tech & Energy sectors are doing great - tapping into the money. I don't see the real estate & construction doing the same - plus so many other sectors.We don't have to relie on commercial banks for borrowing.What is stopping say our retail & wholesale sector(super-market) from taping into global finances?
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You nailed it. The difference btw average kenyan business and say american business - is the size of ambition. Most kenyans or African we have very small ambitions. We just want to buy a house in Karen, own some few cars and some land. We don't have regional nay global ambitions. Whenever I have worked with Americans - I am always amazed by the size of their ambition.
It's probably our education or attitudes or lack of exposure.
Private sector really need to up their game. They shouldn't be complaining and looking at 3rd world gov for support in this century - when the world is now a small village.
Entitled with low ambition. Many businesses think GoK or banks owe them capital. Which is just silly. It is your business - it is your job to hunt for resources. They also think small - so you see a company like say Virtual City or Seven Seas or Craft Silicon - or even Cellulant - they think $50m is heaven. Of course it isn't - cause you need that size of seed to get off the ground - properly scale fast & furious. They don;t look global. Cellulant you can see is a barely successful business - but they are 15 years old "start-up" only in a handful of African countries. While Uber , Stripe are 10 years old and global - with billions in VC. Folks like Safcom think they are big - with less than a B in the bank. Building tech like satellite or buying out startups is a big deal for them - it out of their small mental box. They are such a tiny company with slow, uninspiring ideas and vision.
If you look at McKinsey reports across the board and compare - typically if you do an analysis of a SMB in the west - you find there is about 5 to 10% headroom for optimization at best. In Kenya - the KQ report made my jaw drop - with 200% room for improvement. Very inefficient business. Safcom would think you're crazy if you ask them to do an external SWOT. They are so successful, right?
GoK borrowing big and beating private sector is good - even Safcom should be declared monopoly for their own good. These spoilt brats need tough love.
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Yep. "Tunaomba serikali" culture need to be banished.
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That may be true and Robina's first take on size of ambition as well.
But make no mistake the venture funds that you talk about have also been biased towards the skin color. How many of these funds have come in to pure-play 100% Kenyan business??
I would tell you that the market isn't that open for local ventures. They don't think you have the creds for their funds. I know of some very not so able fellow who i would say must have been one of the most useless fellows i encountered who has set up a string of ventures across Kenya and Nigeria and has received venture funding at every instance even when his ventures (hospitality industry) haven't really panned out or taken off. I would say he is nothing short of a serial conman to me.... and why has he been getting people to listen to him.... the color of his skin! So, money into the tech space will continue to go mostly to "tech-prenures" coming out of the silicon valley or US eco-system as they have some dotted access to the venture funds which are looking for some play in Africa.
Big money into the Energy sector is happening...... a couple of hundreds of millions... not strictly venture investment but rather project financing is coming in (in fact local banks cannot even take the ticket... they have to syndicate a couple of the big boys and they won't do it because another challenge kicks in... jealousy. The local bank honchos don't see how RV Pundit or Robina can be pulling such a massive project... needless to say, their money is so expensive... mostly around 7% interest (libor +6 almost); way too expensive, you can't possibly make a good return or break even by the standard 7 years which is the "gold standard" for a good infra BoT.
The way for me seems to be around local venture investors being the initial angel/seed investors to the tech businesses, then baby-sitting them upto a certain stage 2-3years down the road; then helping them get some "series b" funding and progressively preparing to unlock to bigger venture funds and as well as bigger market. This is quite how Cellulant has grown. So has Twiga... unfortunately for likes of Seven Seas, turbulent times there and time/need for a change of tack and business focus. The business model of hardware sales or strictly as an SI are long gone... one has to be creating something that assures you recurrent revenue and that you control and can grow into a wide customer base.
You nailed it. The difference btw average kenyan business and say american business - is the size of ambition. Most kenyans or African we have very small ambitions. We just want to buy a house in Karen, own some few cars and some land. We don't have regional nay global ambitions. Whenever I have worked with Americans - I am always amazed by the size of their ambition.
It's probably our education or attitudes or lack of exposure.
Private sector really need to up their game. They shouldn't be complaining and looking at 3rd world gov for support in this century - when the world is now a small village.
Entitled with low ambition. Many businesses think GoK or banks owe them capital. Which is just silly. It is your business - it is your job to hunt for resources. They also think small - so you see a company like say Virtual City or Seven Seas or Craft Silicon - or even Cellulant - they think $50m is heaven. Of course it isn't - cause you need that size of seed to get off the ground - properly scale fast & furious. They don;t look global. Cellulant you can see is a barely successful business - but they are 15 years old "start-up" only in a handful of African countries. While Uber , Stripe are 10 years old and global - with billions in VC. Folks like Safcom think they are big - with less than a B in the bank. Building tech like satellite or buying out startups is a big deal for them - it out of their small mental box. They are such a tiny company with slow, uninspiring ideas and vision.
If you look at McKinsey reports across the board and compare - typically if you do an analysis of a SMB in the west - you find there is about 5 to 10% headroom for optimization at best. In Kenya - the KQ report made my jaw drop - with 200% room for improvement. Very inefficient business. Safcom would think you're crazy if you ask them to do an external SWOT. They are so successful, right?
GoK borrowing big and beating private sector is good - even Safcom should be declared monopoly for their own good. These spoilt brats need tough love.
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Government can borrow as much as it wants but at the end of the day private sector and individuals are the ones to repay the debt. Debt isn't paid by GDP its paid with actual revenue collection. If the revenue collection isn't keeping up with debt accumulation, then countries are forced to default.
Kenya true private sector forget the crony government suppliers and contractors, doesn't need "serikali saidia". Pirvate sector only need the government to get the F out of the way, basically unshackle the private sector.
Kenyans pay ksh.40 in taxes for every liter of petrol, annually kenya consumes 900m liters, that's a whopping 36b, its enough to build 0ver 1500km of tarmac roads annually without borrowing a dime. If the capacity is there gov can easily issue a 10yr bond of $5b against those funds and ring fence those funds to be paid off by taxes charged on petrol.
VC: The much heralded vc funds are mostly from western pensioners. Kenya has pensioners too, but those funds are invested in Tbills forced by government to do so. The biggest one NSSF is being milked by likes of Atwoli instead of the funds being managed by private sector. This are the funds that need to be utilized to turbo charge private sector. Local funds manager are more likely to invest in local start ups cause they know the local market better.