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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on March 29, 2019, 09:22:58 AM

Title: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: RV Pundit on March 29, 2019, 09:22:58 AM
Expect the economy to bridge 10 trillion kshs (100B kshs) - and nominal GDP per capita to cross 2,000usd. Kenya will need to get to around 200B - double it's GDP - to become Upper Middle Income Country (if population doesn't grow that much) - and that should be possible before 2025 - and by 2030 - we will definitely be near where South Africa are now - 5-6,000Usd per capita.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001318641/kenya-in-no-rush-over-new-imf-standby-facility-says-cbk

Also current account deficit will continue to drop.

It forecast the current account deficit would narrow to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2019 from an estimated 4.9 percent in 2018.
“We expect our current account deficit to remain around 5 percent in the medium term,” Njoroge said.
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 29, 2019, 10:41:02 AM
What is the population growth in Kenya. I was surprised to see that stares like Wisconsin population groqth is 0.98 percent
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: hk on March 29, 2019, 11:00:29 AM
Expect the economy to bridge 10 trillion kshs (100B kshs) - and nominal GDP per capita to cross 2,000usd. Kenya will need to get to around 200B - double it's GDP - to become Upper Middle Income Country (if population doesn't grow that much) - and that should be possible before 2025 - and by 2030 - we will definitely be near where South Africa are now - 5-6,000Usd per capita.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001318641/kenya-in-no-rush-over-new-imf-standby-facility-says-cbk

Also current account deficit will continue to drop.

It forecast the current account deficit would narrow to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2019 from an estimated 4.9 percent in 2018.
“We expect our current account deficit to remain around 5 percent in the medium term,” Njoroge said.
The latest number from the https://www.knbs.or.ke/ are 3rd quarter GDP of 2018. Why is current account deficit decreasing? Its cause Kenya is importing less goods mainly cause kenyans don't have money to import. Its  not like all of a sudden kenyans are exporting more or producing goods locally. That isn't a good indicator of CPI. What's happening is KNBS is able to capture economic data better than before since most of kenya economic activity is being channeled through "capturable" venues. e.g Mobile money.
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 29, 2019, 11:19:48 AM
USA economy is slowing down. We are in a pickle and asset inflation delfates. There is a serious slow down in shipment. Warren buffet just issued a caution after bsnf dropped like a stone. Cass is declaring we are headed for a freight recession. In Kenya CPI and pressure on farmers from drought and dumping will slow down this momentum. Once credit from USA dries it will impact all other industries in Kenya
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: Nefertiti on March 29, 2019, 11:46:00 AM
As the population turns the corner - with 100% pri-sec-tivet transition - we will experience demographic dividend. Productivity will hit optimum when 20yr+ work-group become the majority. When half the folks work - the dependency is also 1:1 - leading to big savings and investments. Kenya is turning the corner - it's a matter of time.
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 29, 2019, 11:50:02 AM
As the population turns the corner - with 100% pri-sec-tivet transition - we will experience demographic dividend. Productivity will hit optimum when 20yr+ work-group become the majority. When half the folks work - the dependency is also 1:1 - leading to big savings and investments. Kenya is turning the corner - it's a matter of time.

Where can i invest to be a billionaire? How is Telsa doing I am seeing more and more Telsas cars and SUV in my hood
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: Nefertiti on March 29, 2019, 12:06:44 PM
As the population turns the corner - with 100% pri-sec-tivet transition - we will experience demographic dividend. Productivity will hit optimum when 20yr+ work-group become the majority. When half the folks work - the dependency is also 1:1 - leading to big savings and investments. Kenya is turning the corner - it's a matter of time.

Where can i invest to be a billionaire? How is Telsa doing I am seeing more and more Telsas cars and SUV in my hood

I bought Tesla in 2010 IPO... immediately after school. Not sold a dime since. 1500% ROI :)
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 29, 2019, 12:08:21 PM
As the population turns the corner - with 100% pri-sec-tivet transition - we will experience demographic dividend. Productivity will hit optimum when 20yr+ work-group become the majority. When half the folks work - the dependency is also 1:1 - leading to big savings and investments. Kenya is turning the corner - it's a matter of time.

Where can i invest to be a billionaire? How is Telsa doing I am seeing more and more Telsas cars and SUV in my hood

I bought Tesla in 2010 IPO... immediately after school. Not sold a dime since. 1500% ROI :)

Lol ..i d not buy individual stocks I got serious burnt during dot com bubble
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: Nefertiti on March 29, 2019, 12:10:23 PM
You can still still buy Tesla - it will double as the EV market explodes. It's already killing the German gas autos. Tesla marketshare will go from 0.5% to 5-10%+ in the near future.
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: Nefertiti on March 29, 2019, 12:14:32 PM
As the population turns the corner - with 100% pri-sec-tivet transition - we will experience demographic dividend. Productivity will hit optimum when 20yr+ work-group become the majority. When half the folks work - the dependency is also 1:1 - leading to big savings and investments. Kenya is turning the corner - it's a matter of time.

Where can i invest to be a billionaire? How is Telsa doing I am seeing more and more Telsas cars and SUV in my hood

I bought Tesla in 2010 IPO... immediately after school. Not sold a dime since. 1500% ROI :)

Lol ..i d not buy individual stocks I got serious burnt during dot com bubble

You can invest in Berkshire Hathaway or such if risk averse. If the sage of Omaha - 90 yr old Warren Buffet - poofs the stock would nose dive.
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 29, 2019, 12:21:18 PM
I just do index funds ..i will sell my Kenyan stocks and gamble with USA ones
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: Nefertiti on March 29, 2019, 12:27:09 PM
I just do index funds ..i will sell my Kenyan stocks and gamble with USA ones

Stocks need to zero in on a portfolio you are passionate about so you can laser focus. If not go index funds. Is Zimele still alive?
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: KenyanPlato on March 29, 2019, 12:31:16 PM
I just do index funds ..i will sell my Kenyan stocks and gamble with USA ones

Stocks need to zero in on a portfolio you are passionate about so you can laser focus. If not go index funds. Is Zimele still alive?

What is zimele?
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: Nefertiti on March 29, 2019, 02:01:25 PM
Zimele was a popular fund manager and stock broker in 2000s in Nairobi.
Title: Re: Kenya economy to grow by 6.3% - after possible 6.1%
Post by: RV Pundit on March 29, 2019, 04:20:37 PM
We will find out soon in census but the inflection point in terms of demographic was 2016 - for first time the 0-5 are less than 5-10 - and so we should expect less and less kids - and it 10-15yrs - things will be great.
As the population turns the corner - with 100% pri-sec-tivet transition - we will experience demographic dividend. Productivity will hit optimum when 20yr+ work-group become the majority. When half the folks work - the dependency is also 1:1 - leading to big savings and investments. Kenya is turning the corner - it's a matter of time.