Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: KenyanPlato on March 19, 2019, 01:10:31 AM
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https://www.theeastafricanreview.info/op-eds/2019/03/18/the-dam-has-broken-time-to-call-jubilee-plunder-what-it-is/
Uhuru and ruto are criminals that belong in jail
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Don't rain on Pundit's party of "Kenya is China model" - that Ruto will leverage with his supreme efficiency and create African Tiger - yet China has no massive foreign debt? I recently challenged him and he went conflation.
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Pundit is 21st century mulu mutysiya or sharrif Nassir
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Kenya economy under Jubilee has done well. That is why Jubilee duo were voted with 98% of the vote after winning 54% in first round. Uhuru inherited an economy of about 50B - and in six years - that economy this year will probably hit 100B (10 trillion shs) -98B according to IMF/WB. The economy has been growing at 6%, interest & inflation rate has been very stable and so have other macro-economics. The gov before Raila handshake was smooth machine delivering for kenyans.
Ndii and his NASA nonsense are buried.
Don't rain on Pundit's party of "Kenya is China model" - that Ruto will leverage with his supreme efficiency and create African Tiger - yet China has no massive foreign debt? I recently challenged him and he went conflation.
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Jubilee has been a disaster, and the sad thing is we're just entering the worst part. Unwinding the debts, curtailing wanton corruption will take a huge toll on the economy. Reviving the economy will be a tall order. Jubilee is about to become even more unpopular. For economy to grow from 50b to 100b in 7yrs it means the economy has to average 12.5% gdp growth. The economy hasn't be growing at that rate, one can check kra collection, even with higher taxes, the collection hasn't doubled. It simply means jubilee inherited a bigger economy than previous stated. After rebasing the economy that would be apparent.
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When you have strong economic growth averaging 6% plus strong currency against usd; then nominal gdp has no option but reach 100B this year.
As for taxes..in 2013 - KRA collected -759.5B. In 2018 KRA collected 1.5 trillion Kshs. That is about what % of growth again. This year it will probably hit 1.6 trillion (16B)...with total revenues (including AIA) exceeding 20B dollars.
Let us stick to FACTS. Don't play Ndii politics dressed as economics.
When Kibaki was PORK - Gov was collecting 700B in 1yr - now in 5 months ONLY - Jubilee are collecting about the same money.
in the five months from July to December, the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), the tax-collecting agency, only raised Sh681 billion.
But yes with Raila entering with his confusion - and all the noise - expect the economy to tank to 4% from rest of Jubilee regime. Already so far gov expenditure has grinded to halt as confusion and counter-accusation continues.Now we are going to worry about who get 10% of project money as bribe - instead of executing delivering projects that affect many people.
Instead of building rails, roads, dams, power stations, pipelines and such - we are busy witchhunting and killing projects - that can transform this country - and pay back the '5-10%' bribe money in a year.
Jubilee has been a disaster, and the sad thing is we're just entering the worst part. Unwinding the debts, curtailing wanton corruption will take a huge toll on the economy. Reviving the economy will be a tall order. Jubilee is about to become even more unpopular. For economy to grow from 50b to 100b in 7yrs it means the economy has to average 12.5% gdp growth. The economy hasn't be growing at that rate, one can check kra collection, even with higher taxes, the collection hasn't doubled. It simply means jubilee inherited a bigger economy than previous stated. After rebasing the economy that would be apparent.
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Kindly inform us of the goverment debt since 2013.
Kenya economy under Jubilee has done well. That is why Jubilee duo were voted with 98% of the vote after winning 54% in first round. Uhuru inherited an economy of about 50B - and in six years - that economy this year will probably hit 100B (10 trillion shs) -98B according to IMF/WB. The economy has been growing at 6%, interest & inflation rate has been very stable and so have other macro-economics. The gov before Raila handshake was smooth machine delivering for kenyans.
Ndii and his NASA nonsense are buried.
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Kindly inform us the gov assets that Kibaki sold - starting from auctioning 25% of Safaricom. That is equal to 2 Eurobond or whole of SGR.
If Jubilee were to sell the same Safaricom shares now - they'd get 27*10M shares=nearly 6 times kimunya got. That would be about 300B - enough to pay SGR.
Jubilee to it's credit has yet to sell any share in any gov asset.
Kindly inform us of the goverment debt since 2013.
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Yawwnnn. I can borrow 1B from the bank - payable at big interest - squander 30% on fashion and liquor - 70% on vanity projects. Bam! am billionaire even at NET BANKRUPTCY.
We know the "projects" are white elephants...
SGR - math don't add up
Dams - contractor is bankrupt and 2 yrs late
Galana - zero returns while folks starve
Elec - more expensive, poor uptake and continued deforestation for firewood / charcoal
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So true. The NET is that Kenyan debt + interest is bigger than the ROI. Saying GDP grew on massive debt is idiocy. All the "growth" is public expenditure - physical laying of rail and concrete - not verified returns.
Jubilee has been a disaster, and the sad thing is we're just entering the worst part. Unwinding the debts, curtailing wanton corruption will take a huge toll on the economy. Reviving the economy will be a tall order. Jubilee is about to become even more unpopular. For economy to grow from 50b to 100b in 7yrs it means the economy has to average 12.5% gdp growth. The economy hasn't be growing at that rate, one can check kra collection, even with higher taxes, the collection hasn't doubled. It simply means jubilee inherited a bigger economy than previous stated. After rebasing the economy that would be apparent.
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Kenya economic growth remain broad-based. The macro-economics have never looked this god. You cannot refute the fact that Jubilee will this year possibly cross 100B dollar mark nominal GDP from a revised GDP of 55B. When Jubilee next GDP does it own re-basing - we may discover Jubilee grew the economy by even bigger number. According to treasury if Jubilee stick to their growth plan...by 2023 when Ruto starts...our economy will be 150B dollars...and tax revenues will be around 30B dollars...and our annually budget will probably be 60B dollars.
Obviously the entry of Raila noise into the smooth Jubilee machinery will mean nothing get done. Uhuru has to really guard against that. He was doing fine when Ruto was on the saddle.
If you want to talk about debt...kindly also talk about assets that Jubilee didn't sell and but grew. Kenya Railways is no longer bankrupt...it has 4-5B dollar worth of asset in brand new greenfield railway line.
So true. The NET is that Kenyan debt + interest is bigger than the ROI. Saying GDP grew on massive debt is idiocy. All the "growth" is public expenditure - physical laying of rail and concrete - not verified returns.
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Sounds like NASA usual propaganda. SGR is not white elephant - it's kenya biggest investment - delivered on time & cost - and it will eventually pay for itself. It has teething problem like everything else but in fullness of time - this will be Uhuru signature project. Jubilee has earned praises for overseeing one of world fastest electrification. The dam contractor is big international contractor - even here in Uganda - I see they got Jinja-Kampala expressway - all tendering under World Bank. We need to build those dams. Our water situation is very very bad. The same with Kalana...we just need to build a huge dam upstream...and not abandoned that project..under hailstorm of NASA noises and propaganda.
We need to draw the line btw politics and projects that affect everyone.
Yawwnnn. I can borrow 1B from the bank - payable at big interest - squander 30% on fashion and liquor - 70% on vanity projects. Bam! am billionaire even at NET BANKRUPTCY.
We know the "projects" are white elephants...
SGR - math don't add up
Dams - contractor is bankrupt and 2 yrs late
Galana - zero returns while folks starve
Elec - more expensive, poor uptake and continued deforestation for firewood / charcoal
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Debt-to-GDP ratio 60%... from 20% Kibaki - it has tripled under Jubilee. In short we have borrowed - read FAKE - growth. The new revenues cannot repay the debt. The borrow-and-build with dismal returns model is a LIE - you simply have poorer folks in a "rich" country.
Kenya economic growth remain broad-based. The macro-economics have never looked this god. You cannot refute the fact that Jubilee will this year possibly cross 100B dollar mark nominal GDP from a revised GDP of 55B. When Jubilee next GDP does it own re-basing - we may discover Jubilee grew the economy by even bigger number. According to treasury if Jubilee stick to their growth plan...by 2023 when Ruto starts...our economy will be 150B dollars...and tax revenues will be around 30B dollars...and our annually budget will probably be 60B dollars.
Obviously the entry of Raila noise into the smooth Jubilee machinery will mean nothing get done. Uhuru has to really guard against that. He was doing fine when Ruto was on the saddle.
If you want to talk about debt...kindly also talk about assets that Jubilee didn't sell and but grew. Kenya Railways is no longer bankrupt...it has 4-5B dollar worth of asset in brand new greenfield railway line.
So true. The NET is that Kenyan debt + interest is bigger than the ROI. Saying GDP grew on massive debt is idiocy. All the "growth" is public expenditure - physical laying of rail and concrete - not verified returns.
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Pundit kweli. Economy - like your personal finances - is about cashflow. If you are cashflow positive you are OK no matter the net balance sheet position. Now if you borrow a loan and build say a rental - the rental income should repay the debt otherwise you are a poor investor. Huge chunks of the budget go to repay debt. This is basically what Jubilee has done with the mega projects. When SGR cannot produce running cost let alone hit break even, it is in fact a liability not an asset. I see you are already counting this "asset" under bankrupt Kenya Railway :o
Only the free maternity program is a success under Uhuruto which - big surprise - needs no big loan from China. The rest are white elephants - pure waste - Chinaman really laughs at these poor Africans.
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Pundit are you saying the dam contractor is not bankrupt? Are they doing a great job? Why are the dams behind schedule?
How is Galana working out?
Electrification is just a buzzword and a poor metric; stima si maji. When power cost goes down, and forest cover grows as folks stop burning trees, then maybe. It's why we have basic investment math - ROI, IRR before spending.
You are right about politics and projects. If you lay the figures here - and they are real - we have no reason to worry about Raila noises.
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Stick to facts.Robina.That Italian company has like 48b dollars worth of projects worldwide.Kenya steal the usual...from all contractors but work get done.Dont throw the baby with bathwater.
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No bone to pick
Bloomberg - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-11/europe-s-building-firms-caught-amid-rising-debt-falling-profits
Europe's Building Firms Caught Amid Rising Debt, Falling Profits
By Luca Casiraghi
October 10, 2018, 9:00 PM PDT
...
CMC di Ravenna (Italy)
Following a sharp increase in debt during the first half of the year, investors started questioning CMC’s liquidity position. The contractor announced a conference call for Oct. 15 to provide an update on its cash position and especially on the collection of 108 million euros of delayed payments.
Global Capital - https://www.globalcapital.com/article/b1c3fhv5stcqn2/distressed-cmc-ravenna-stokes-hys-italian-fears
Distressed CMC di Ravenna stokes HY's Italian fears
By Victor Jimenez
04 Dec 2018
CMC Ravenna opened the path to debt restructuring under Italian insolvency law at a court in its home city, Ravenna, choosing "the most effective process in order to secure company's assets and protect , in this way, all the stakeholders", it said in a statement on Tuesday.
Moody's - https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2018/12/italy-based-cmc-di-ravenna-downgraded.html
Italy-based CMC di Ravenna downgraded to 'D'
Summary
>CMC di Ravenna (CMC) has announced that, on Dec. 4, 2018, it would apply
in court for a preventive composition with creditors "with reservation."
>We consider CMC's current situation to be tantamount to default because
the application foresees the suspension of payments related to
outstanding obligations.
>We are lowering our long-term ratings on CMC to 'D' from 'CC'.
>The ratings will remain at 'D' until payments resume according to the
terms of the notes or the financial obligations have been restructured.
Stick to facts.Robina.That Italian company has like 48b dollars worth of projects worldwide.Kenya steal the usual...from all contractors but work get done.Dont throw the baby with bathwater.
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What is your point. You wanted Kenya Gov to predict that a big international contractor like that would be bitting dust the following year. I mean private sector never anticipated that Nakumatt would sink with 20-40b of their money. Or Chase bank customers would wake up one morning to find their bank is no more.
This is the nature of business.
The best way forward now is to re-negoitate with them - with view of having them handover the remaining work to China - and the insurer of the money to pay back.
Going forward we just need to give every serious contract to Chinese. I wish this could be made a law.
No bone to pick
Bloomberg - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-11/europe-s-building-firms-caught-amid-rising-debt-falling-profits
Europe's Building Firms Caught Amid Rising Debt, Falling Profits
By Luca Casiraghi
October 10, 2018, 9:00 PM PDT
...
CMC di Ravenna (Italy)
Following a sharp increase in debt during the first half of the year, investors started questioning CMC’s liquidity position. The contractor announced a conference call for Oct. 15 to provide an update on its cash position and especially on the collection of 108 million euros of delayed payments.
Global Capital - https://www.globalcapital.com/article/b1c3fhv5stcqn2/distressed-cmc-ravenna-stokes-hys-italian-fears
Distressed CMC di Ravenna stokes HY's Italian fears
By Victor Jimenez
04 Dec 2018
CMC Ravenna opened the path to debt restructuring under Italian insolvency law at a court in its home city, Ravenna, choosing "the most effective process in order to secure company's assets and protect , in this way, all the stakeholders", it said in a statement on Tuesday.
Moody's - https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2018/12/italy-based-cmc-di-ravenna-downgraded.html
Italy-based CMC di Ravenna downgraded to 'D'
Summary
>CMC di Ravenna (CMC) has announced that, on Dec. 4, 2018, it would apply
in court for a preventive composition with creditors "with reservation."
>We consider CMC's current situation to be tantamount to default because
the application foresees the suspension of payments related to
outstanding obligations.
>We are lowering our long-term ratings on CMC to 'D' from 'CC'.
>The ratings will remain at 'D' until payments resume according to the
terms of the notes or the financial obligations have been restructured.
Stick to facts.Robina.That Italian company has like 48b dollars worth of projects worldwide.Kenya steal the usual...from all contractors but work get done.Dont throw the baby with bathwater.
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My point is there is no Jubilee project completed with a positive return yet. All we have for sure is a massive debt. The rest are details.
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Irrelevant NASA propaganda that is far from OBJECTIVE.
Jubilee if they had done nothing won't have won by 55% and nearly 200mps. Jubilee has done a good job - they slashed child mortality by half I think - among many other great achievements. They are now embarking on universal health care.
Look at Ease of Doing Business - from highs of 100s - we are now nearly at 50! Only Rwanda and Mauritus are better than us in Sub-Saharan Africa.
For more projects...
https://www.delivery.go.ke/
My point is there is no Jubilee project completed with a positive return yet. All we have for sure is a massive debt. The rest are details.
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Yes - you're making point. The tangible achievements don't need big China or Eurobond debt. They are child mortality, free maternity, ease of doing business. These solid mashinani achievements I happily concede to Jubilee.
The "crimes" in these thread are about wasted debt money. The borrow-build-grow model is a LIE.
Irrelevant NASA propaganda that is far from OBJECTIVE.
Jubilee if they had done nothing won't have won by 55% and nearly 200mps. Jubilee has done a good job - they slashed child mortality by half I think - among many other great achievements. They are now embarking on universal health care.
Look at Ease of Doing Business - from highs of 100s - we are now nearly at 50! Only Rwanda and Mauritus are better than us in Sub-Saharan Africa.
For more projects...
https://www.delivery.go.ke/
My point is there is no Jubilee project completed with a positive return yet. All we have for sure is a massive debt. The rest are details.
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When did it become a crime to borrow. Demonstrate wastage?.
Jubilee biggest borrowing was SGR (total nearly 5B dollars) - if you think investing in modern rail - is wastage - then you cannot possibly be helped. We still need to borrow another 5B to get the line to Malaba. If Uhuru is afraid to do that - Ruto will do it the first month of his presidency if he wins.
Ndii talks about power - where is the wastage - when most of power coming online is done by private investors? Jubilee has added more than 30% power capacity - possibly 50% if you factor the retired expensive diesel generators.
Where is the wastage? We borrowed Eurobond which is cheap than loans from Kenya banks and also freezes those banks to lend to business.
I mean where is the wastage when economy has grown at average of 6% the last six years of Jubilee (5.9%,5.4%,5.7%,5.9%,4.9% and this 2018 will definitely be 5.8% or about). That is around 5.7%.
Kibaki in 2003-2012 economic growth was at 4.63 per cent annual average - before rebasing. Jubilee has done 1% more than kibaki did - Kibaki who started from a very low base of -1.7% of Moi's KANU.
Kibaki borrowed to 45% of GDP - Jubilee has taken that figure to nearly 60% - but Kibaki remember bridged the budget deficit by selling KENGEN, KENRE, MUMIAS, SAFARICOM, TELCOM and others.
The "crimes" in these thread are about wasted debt money. The borrow-build-grow model is a LIE.
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When you have strong economic growth averaging 6% plus strong currency against usd; then nominal gdp has no option but reach 100B this year.
As for taxes..in 2013 - KRA collected -759.5B. In 2018 KRA collected 1.5 trillion Kshs. That is about what % of growth again. This year it will probably hit 1.6 trillion (16B)...with total revenues (including AIA) exceeding 20B dollars.
Let us stick to FACTS. Don't play Ndii politics dressed as economics.
When Kibaki was PORK - Gov was collecting 700B in 1yr - now in 5 months ONLY - Jubilee are collecting about the same money.
in the five months from July to December, the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), the tax-collecting agency, only raised Sh681 billion.
But yes with Raila entering with his confusion - and all the noise - expect the economy to tank to 4% from rest of Jubilee regime. Already so far gov expenditure has grinded to halt as confusion and counter-accusation continues.Now we are going to worry about who get 10% of project money as bribe - instead of executing delivering projects that affect many people.
Instead of building rails, roads, dams, power stations, pipelines and such - we are busy witchhunting and killing projects - that can transform this country - and pay back the '5-10%' bribe money in a year.
Jubilee has been a disaster, and the sad thing is we're just entering the worst part. Unwinding the debts, curtailing wanton corruption will take a huge toll on the economy. Reviving the economy will be a tall order. Jubilee is about to become even more unpopular. For economy to grow from 50b to 100b in 7yrs it means the economy has to average 12.5% gdp growth. The economy hasn't be growing at that rate, one can check kra collection, even with higher taxes, the collection hasn't doubled. It simply means jubilee inherited a bigger economy than previous stated. After rebasing the economy that would be apparent.
My bad, I used the wrong metric. With increased government spending kra was bound to collect more. Because every time government spends, taxes are automatically deducted. The government borrows, spends and taxes is deducted. In nutshell its like moving money from one pocket to the other.
The debt tenure is shorter, e.g this yr. we need to pay $10b. Most of that will be rolling over debt at higher rates. Its just a matter of time before the walls start collapsing.
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That doesn't sound right - you mean 1/5 of our total debt need to be repaid this year. The figure I know is around 4.5B - and treasury are doing fine - extending the tenor of most of the loans. We are far from a debt crisis but we need to stop borrowing - but not stop public expenditure - and we can only do that by kick-starting privatization of some of our jewels like Safaricom.
The debt tenure is shorter, e.g this yr. we need to pay $10b. Most of that will be rolling over debt at higher rates. Its just a matter of time before the walls start collapsing.
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hk is quite right.. need to tabulate the math for Pundit.. am just so busy. New revenues are way lower than the debt repayments. Jubilee has mortgaged Kenya.
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If economic growth was that easy - just borrow and build stuff - there would be very few undeveloped or poor countries. You need to be very disciplined, very economical - very frugal - with slavish wages and cheap power and loans. You need to EARN serious revenues through BIG exports. It's why communist China differs with Kenya so much - iron-fisted command economy where Xi orders everyone to go green and they do pap. China and the Tigers are everything corrupt, inefficient, over-consuming Jubilee-led Kenya is not.
It's why I laugh about Uhuru retire with happy legacy - what legacy? He should retire in shame.
(https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/109/590x/unicorn-943353.jpg)
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And of course once we demo the sad math of Jubilee waste - that the China model is inapplicable to Kenya - you just have to accept that we cannot go "China model" and therefore don't need one efficient super-Ruto. to fix our problems. Kenya is the opposite of China and we need a different approach - including taming if not ending the wanton theft that Ruto excels in.
William Ruto is a problem not a solution.
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Classic strawman arguments. Who talked about China. Is China the only model? Is the Asian tigers the only model out there? Chile developed under corrupt dictatorial regime of Pinochet. Indonesia made great strides under the uber-corrupt Suharto.Kenya is a thriving swamp of corruption if you compare it with it's peers in Sub-Saharan Africa.
What we need to do to develop is simple to me. Fix our Infrastructure deficit. Fix our social deficit. We need to fix both by massively investing in public sector. I am talking massively investing in paved roads, clean running water, electricity transmission, sea ports, lake ports, airports, power plants & irrigation schemes and then continue to invest in our people - esp basic needs - education, health and housing - and assist those who are poor, disabled and vulnerable. And of course security, law & order.
I believe everything else is in place to see kenya grow to proper middle class country. We have dealt with nearly all the other issues - what is just remaining from gov is to make sure everyone has paved all-weather road from their homes (still very BAD - 15-20% of all roads are paved), are connected to clean piped water and sewage if urban (still very BAD), have electricity supply to their doorstep (Now largely fixed) and maybe throw rails, oil pipelines, ports and such as extras.
If I was president - I would start Infrastructure Deficit Fund - and engage in world most extensive road constructions, dam constructions, ports & railways construction. Where will I get the money - I would sell those 30% share in Safaricom - easily earning 4-5B dollars - then flog another 30-49% of all these cash-cows - KAA, KPA, KPL,KCB,NOCK - each of those are capable of each netting 500-1B dollars. These gov cash cows if sold can easily earn our gov anything 10-15B dollars. I would then borrow from Chinese another 10-15B dollars. That should get us clean 30B dollars to bridge our infrastructure deficit.
After that - we should let trickle-down market economics to do it magic. Gov will just maintain the existing infrastructure and repay the loan going forward.
And of course once we demo the sad math of Jubilee waste - that the China model is inapplicable to Kenya - you just have to accept that we cannot go "China model" and therefore don't need one efficient super-Ruto. to fix our problems. Kenya is the opposite of China and we need a different approach - including taming if not ending the wanton theft that Ruto excels in.
William Ruto is a problem not a solution.
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Heck if the money is not enough - the next Pres Ruto - should also sell Nairobi National Park - and put the money in the Infrastructure Deficit fund - and make sure - nobody is a kilometer away from a tarmac road, doesn't have clean piped water or electricity - and all that goes for modern basic infrastructure every citizen is entitled from it's gov. After he is done with Gov job to supplying basic infrastructure - the private sectors and private citizens will have no option except use it for their economic advancement.
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You rode the "China model" until recently when we showed how different it is from Kenya. To justify Jubilee's mega projects. You're equally wrong to quote Chile and Indonesia. I mean how is Kenya special? Out of say 50 corrupt countries - if 2 succeed and 48 fail - 4% success rate that a corrupt country can grow fast - which is more likely? Can you point out the 4% and argue corruption is not a BIG negative? While in truth Kenya is already part of the 96% failures. Just so you can say your infamously corrupt hero is the midas touch we need.
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Chile and indonesia also employed free markets, limited debt to curb inflation etc. This is what berkeley mafia did to turn around indonesia economy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Mafia . Jubilee has done exactly opposite. The chicago boys in chile offered the same prescription, with increased deregulation and liberalization. Going on inflated infrastructure binge doesn't translates to poverty reduction (i.e. rising incomes).
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Chile and indonesia also employed free markets, limited debt to curb inflation etc. This is what berkeley mafia did to turn around indonesia economy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Mafia . Jubilee has done exactly opposite. The chicago boys in chile offered the same prescription, with increased deregulation and liberalization. Going on inflated infrastructure binge doesn't translates to poverty reduction (i.e. rising incomes).
Yup - Chile and Indonesia have only corruption in common with Kenya - we are poorer despite brand new shiny roads and rail. Their growth approach we are miles apart. It's also a big lie that PORK can be individually efficient and this trickles down to the economy. Any fool can borrow and build including old, lame Kibaki. There is in fact no trickle-down productivity - But there is trickle-down corruption - wizi - because of the symbolism. That's why you have incompetent CS Echesa printing fake cash - cos his boss is a thief :) - while he is not as efficient.
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Chile and indonesia also employed free markets, limited debt to curb inflation etc. This is what berkeley mafia did to turn around indonesia economy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Mafia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Mafia) . Jubilee has done exactly opposite. The chicago boys in chile offered the same prescription, with increased deregulation and liberalization. Going on inflated infrastructure binge doesn't translates to poverty reduction (i.e. rising incomes).
Yup - Chile and Indonesia have only corruption in common with Kenya - we are poorer despite brand new shiny roads and rail. Their growth approach we are miles apart. It's also a big lie that PORK can be individually efficient and this trickles down to the economy. Any fool can borrow and build including old, lame Kibaki. There is in fact no trickle-down productivity - But there is trickle-down corruption - wizi - because of the symbolism. That's why you have incompetent CS Echesa printing fake cash - cos his boss is a thief :) - while he is not as efficient.
Chile also had some interesting dynamic with the US, involving active sabotage, similar to Venezuela prior to Pinochet. Indonesia had an oil windfall(and is generally worse off compared to its neighbors Malaysia and Singapore). There are more complex dynamics at play than just a corrupt strongman and profligate borrowing and spending.
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And that is my prescription - sell more public assets - to fund public investment in infrastructure and it's people. And yes if there are cheap available credit like the Chinese are dolling out - take advantage of it. Our macro-economics looks good.
I think gov job is to provide services - roads, electricity, name it - and for people to take advantage of that to grow their incomes & get out of hunger and poverty.If the economy wasn't growing at 6% plus like this year - you'd fault the Jubilee gov - but the economy is clearly doing very well - people are definitely living better with all low volume seal roads, all electricity connections, with gov taking care of secondary education (we are nearly attaining 100% secondary transition!!!!!!!!!!!), TIVET are admitting 200k - and soon it will be 400k.
Obviously we have reached the limit of our prudent borrowing - but we should not reach the limit of public investment with such deficit.
Chile and indonesia also employed free markets, limited debt to curb inflation etc. This is what berkeley mafia did to turn around indonesia economy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Mafia . Jubilee has done exactly opposite. The chicago boys in chile offered the same prescription, with increased deregulation and liberalization. Going on inflated infrastructure binge doesn't translates to poverty reduction (i.e. rising incomes).
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Nigeria had about the same oil as Indonesia and same corruption - but fared badly. And only Chile out of many latin american countries made to the developed world despite adopting the same and being pro-US.
When China was developing - and WE DID ARGUE HERE endlessy - a decade go - you guys were saying the same thing - no way CHina can develop without DEMOCRACY.
There is a way a country can develop without democracy or with corruption. And that way is for gov to get stuff done. I don't care if they are democratic or not - corrupt or not - they need to get stuff done. You can have Raila talking a storm like Onyango Oloo but you know - how that ends - in POVERTY - or you can have someone like Ruto who wakes up at 5am and sleeps at 10am after getting lots of shiet done. I don't care if at end of the process he reward himself with 35B dollars like Suharto. Kenya economy by then would be worth 1 trillion.
Look at TZ - they tick all the boxes - but remain poorer and more pathetic than Kenya in nearly any index.
Chile also had some interesting dynamic with the US, involving active sabotage, similar to Venezuela prior to Pinochet. Indonesia had an oil windfall(and is generally worse off compared to its neighbors Malaysia and Singapore). There are more complex dynamics at play than just a corrupt strongman and profligate borrowing and spending.
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Bad workwoman blames her tools.why are the mugendias,rutos,magohas,matiangias,michukis,nyachaes and even biwotts able to get stuff done. But we prefer preachers against corruption and other ism - who happen to very lazy fools who just know how to talk a storm. That is probably from my dad...who describes most preachers....as that ilk...incredibly lazy fools with gift of gab...like most of our politicians.
What we need is as country is people like magohas, rutos, matiangis and mugendias to get stuff done...to get things moving..otherwise you find lots of people who just come with rehearsed speeches like Raila - we are at CROSS-ROADS - change the constitution - ohoo corruption is the problem.
The problem most of the time is Africa laziness. Indians and Chinese come here and thrive with all the isms....and you find them sloughing the long hours. Bazungu is a work ethic automaton. Bazungu is where he is because he sweat it out... he gets shit done. Mwafrika is out there looking for magic bullet from traditional witches or modern day witches like Raila.
And of course once we demo the sad math of Jubilee waste - that the China model is inapplicable to Kenya - you just have to accept that we cannot go "China model" and therefore don't need one efficient super-Ruto. to fix our problems. Kenya is the opposite of China and we need a different approach - including taming if not ending the wanton theft that Ruto excels in.
William Ruto is a problem not a solution.
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We agree government job is to get stuff done. It is which are the important services or "stuff" we discuss. Free pri + sec education, 100% transition, TIVET - are big milestones - again no big loans. Do you see the obvious? The clear wins need no heavy borrowing - they raise productivity without costing an arm and a leg.
The megaprojects - SGR, Galana, etc - would only make sense if
a) not build on debt and/or
b) produce enough cashflow to breakeven i.e. even if you sell parastatals the ROI must be bigger than Safcom or Kengen dividends
You can tell this is not the case by rise in debt-to-GDP ratio - 20% to 60% - shows the Jubilee debt repayments are 3X the increase in productivity. Bigger GDP means nothing when the net revenues are less. Try Net Domestic Product (NDP). :) Jubilee's NDP is actually -ve. We are poorer.
Doing the right stuff obviously does not take hyperactive PORK - like Moi or Ruto going to office at 5AM - just the correct priorities. Sickly old Kibaki still delivered.
And that is my prescription - sell more public assets - to fund public investment in infrastructure and it's people. And yes if there are cheap available credit like the Chinese are dolling out - take advantage of it. Our macro-economics looks good.
I think gov job is to provide services - roads, electricity, name it - and for people to take advantage of that to grow their incomes & get out of hunger and poverty.If the economy wasn't growing at 6% plus like this year - you'd fault the Jubilee gov - but the economy is clearly doing very well - people are definitely living better with all low volume seal roads, all electricity connections, with gov taking care of secondary education (we are nearly attaining 100% secondary transition!!!!!!!!!!!), TIVET are admitting 200k - and soon it will be 400k.
Obviously we have reached the limit of our prudent borrowing - but we should not reach the limit of public investment with such deficit.
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Great pitch. Explain how "lazy" Kibaki managed to grow the economy? Or he just picked from Moi bottom. Raila and Ruto have never been president - CEO - but they both shared some power - that's all we have to go on.
Bad workwoman blames her tools.why are the mugendias,rutos,magohas,matiangias,michukis,nyachaes and even biwotts able to get stuff done. But we prefer preachers against corruption and other ism - who happen to very lazy fools who just know how to talk a storm. That is probably from my dad...who describes most preachers....as that ilk...incredibly lazy fools with gift of gab...like most of our politicians.
What we need is as country is people like magohas, rutos, matiangis and mugendias to get stuff done...to get things moving..otherwise you find lots of people who just come with rehearsed speeches like Raila - we are at CROSS-ROADS - change the constitution - ohoo corruption is the problem.
The problem most of the time is Africa laziness. Indians and Chinese come here and thrive with all the isms....and you find them sloughing the long hours. Bazungu is a work ethic automaton. Bazungu is where he is because he sweat it out... he gets shit done. Mwafrika is out there looking for magic bullet from traditional witches or modern day witches like Raila.