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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 24, 2018, 10:22:52 AM

Title: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on August 24, 2018, 10:22:52 AM
Now the base rate is Kenya Banks Reference Rate’s (KBRR) base rate of 7.6 per cent

Indeed huge victory for borrowers. Let the banks innovate and find ways of dealing with risky customers without charging everyone an arm & leg.
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001293137/victory-for-borrowers-as-mps-retain-law-on-rates
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: gout on August 24, 2018, 01:03:01 PM
Interesting way for Treasury to show the middle finger where it benefits while cozy with the same IMF as a godsent scapegoat with the fuel prices. You can't beat Mwafrika thugs!!
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on August 24, 2018, 04:39:27 PM
So which is this bank that would lend to businesses and individuals at lower rate than government?
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on August 24, 2018, 05:10:09 PM
90% of kenyan do not default so that huge segment that is as good as lending to treasury.Banks do not have to lend to risk customers and they have crb and other tools.
So which is this bank that would lend to businesses and individuals at lower rate than government?
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: Georgesoros on August 24, 2018, 05:22:52 PM
90% of kenyan do not default so that huge segment that is as good as lending to treasury.Banks do not have to lend to risk customers and they have crb and other tools.
So which is this bank that would lend to businesses and individuals at lower rate than government?
Its good politically, but it stagnates financing systems. Most MPigs don't have basic understanding of economics. Thats why they vote for capping rates.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on August 24, 2018, 06:00:15 PM
90% of kenyan do not default so that huge segment that is as good as lending to treasury.Banks do not have to lend to risk customers and they have crb and other tools.
There's no borrower in kenya who's less riskier than treasury. Government has failed miserably to lower interest rates using normal fiscal & monetary tools. Eventually the credit growth will turn negative which'll be disastrous for the economy. This will force treasury to swallow a bitter pill, its better to do the prudent thing now instead of later. Even after all the protest treasury, will still impose VAT on fuel starting September 1. So even the scrapping of rates is coming. 
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: patel on August 24, 2018, 06:54:16 PM
once you borrow as much as our illegitimate president has then you must do everything you can to defend the shilling. Hiyo VAT ya fuel icome speedi speedi 
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: vooke on August 24, 2018, 07:07:16 PM
90% of kenyan do not default so that huge segment that is as good as lending to treasury.Banks do not have to lend to risk customers and they have crb and other tools.
So which is this bank that would lend to businesses and individuals at lower rate than government?

The ratio of gross non-performing loans to gross loans increased from 10.66 percent in December 2017 to 11.81 percent in March 2018
https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/banking_sector_reports/97419934_Credit%20Survey%20Report%20for%20the%20Quarter%20ended%20March%202018.pdf

Problem is to meet the 90% good you have to lend to everyone including the 12% who are bad. So if your interest is anything less than 12% then you are not in business. But his 12% is industry rate. Individual banks like KCB have a much lower rate
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on August 24, 2018, 07:26:55 PM
They need to figure out how to weed those few in unsecured loans and provision for it.Banks are still making profit.
90% of kenyan do not default so that huge segment that is as good as lending to treasury.Banks do not have to lend to risk customers and they have crb and other tools.
So which is this bank that would lend to businesses and individuals at lower rate than government?

The ratio of gross non-performing loans to gross loans increased from 10.66 percent in December 2017 to 11.81 percent in March 2018
https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/banking_sector_reports/97419934_Credit%20Survey%20Report%20for%20the%20Quarter%20ended%20March%202018.pdf

Problem is to meet the 90% good you have to lend to everyone including the 12% who are bad. So if your interest is anything less than 12% then you are not in business. But his 12% is industry rate. Individual banks like KCB have a much lower rate
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 25, 2018, 04:03:54 AM
The expert the expert
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on August 25, 2018, 10:18:41 AM
They need to figure out how to weed those few in unsecured loans and provision for it.Banks are still making profit.

Of course the banks are making money hand over fist by loading on Tbills at 13% interest rate. Risk free. Check the latest banks earning reports.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: KenyanPlato on August 25, 2018, 02:08:45 PM
Check cbk numbers on defaults. Most of Kenyan loans are not properly secured
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on August 25, 2018, 02:56:07 PM
The problem is that banks will charge the same interest irrespective of risk or collatoral.if they were to have graduated interest regime nobody would complain but pricing interest at 20% for everyone is not helpful.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: gout on August 25, 2018, 07:37:58 PM
The ignored bit about interest on deposits/savings is quite a game changers of this interest capping law especially for a society which we keep lamenting of poor saving culture. Saccos are doing well giving us 9-12%. As banks move away from brick and mortal model they need to be squeezed further- let the depositors get a pie of the super normal margins.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on August 29, 2018, 06:30:05 PM
Parliament also suspend vat on fuel.imf can go f themselves
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on August 29, 2018, 07:09:52 PM
Parliament also suspend vat on fuel.imf can go f themselves
Parliament also didn't approve the housing fund. We'll see whether IMF will withdraw the $1.5b standby loan since there's no way treasury can cut the budget deficit.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on August 30, 2018, 07:53:51 PM
Parliament is on fire. Rejected Vat on fuel, housing fund, scrapping of interest rates and today robin hood tax https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/08/30/mps-reject-tax-on-huge-cash-transfers_c1811155 . Parliament should also reject increased excise tax on mobile money transfer. Parliament is literally starving the beast. The only thing disagree with is maintaining of interest rates spread. This is unwittingly giving treasury cheap credit while crowding out private sector. Treasury will have to scale down the 2018 budget, or run a ridiculous 10% budget deficit.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on August 30, 2018, 08:38:29 PM
Duale is teaching some lessons.He has lets mps go rogue.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: patel on August 30, 2018, 11:07:52 PM
where does this leave Jubilee 4 pillars? in uhuru's head? and how will Ruto campaign on jubilee development agenda after URP has sabotaged Jubilee 4 pillars?  seem like URP wing of jubilee is determined to bring down the government through economic collapse. the sooner uhuru listen to IMF the better.


Parliament is on fire. Rejected Vat on fuel, housing fund, scrapping of interest rates and today robin hood tax https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/08/30/mps-reject-tax-on-huge-cash-transfers_c1811155 . Parliament should also reject increased excise tax on mobile money transfer. Parliament is literally starving the beast. The only thing disagree with is maintaining of interest rates spread. This is unwittingly giving treasury cheap credit while crowding out private sector. Treasury will have to scale down the 2018 budget, or run a ridiculous 10% budget deficit.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: Nefertiti on August 31, 2018, 01:59:42 AM
Ruto needs Big 4 more than Uhuru. With the corruption skunk firmly clawed on his back he has nothing but "development" to offer.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on August 31, 2018, 06:52:38 AM
where does this leave Jubilee 4 pillars? in uhuru's head? and how will Ruto campaign on jubilee development agenda after URP has sabotaged Jubilee 4 pillars?  seem like URP wing of jubilee is determined to bring down the government through economic collapse. the sooner uhuru listen to IMF the better.


Parliament is on fire. Rejected Vat on fuel, housing fund, scrapping of interest rates and today robin hood tax https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/08/30/mps-reject-tax-on-huge-cash-transfers_c1811155 . Parliament should also reject increased excise tax on mobile money transfer. Parliament is literally starving the beast. The only thing disagree with is maintaining of interest rates spread. This is unwittingly giving treasury cheap credit while crowding out private sector. Treasury will have to scale down the 2018 budget, or run a ridiculous 10% budget deficit.
I think more than anything else its the realization that government can't increase taxes. There's no room for higher taxes and also government can't borrow more. Jubilee has irresponsibly borrowed and invested in projects with negative return. Actually by rejecting higher taxes the Mps are salvaging the economy. Uhuru is delusion if he thinks that its possible to achieve big 4 without funding. Austerity measures needs to be enacted immediately. Jubilee economic model of heavy borrowing,high taxes and profligate expenditures has collapsed.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: vooke on August 31, 2018, 08:05:00 AM
They need to figure out how to weed those few in unsecured loans and provision for it.Banks are still making profit.
90% of kenyan do not default so that huge segment that is as good as lending to treasury.Banks do not have to lend to risk customers and they have crb and other tools.
So which is this bank that would lend to businesses and individuals at lower rate than government?

The ratio of gross non-performing loans to gross loans increased from 10.66 percent in December 2017 to 11.81 percent in March 2018
https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/banking_sector_reports/97419934_Credit%20Survey%20Report%20for%20the%20Quarter%20ended%20March%202018.pdf

Problem is to meet the 90% good you have to lend to everyone including the 12% who are bad. So if your interest is anything less than 12% then you are not in business. But his 12% is industry rate. Individual banks like KCB have a much lower rate


Banks turn in billions from hundreds of billions of assets. Their real returns are not that sexy. Look at how much assets KCB takes to rake in their profits
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: Higgins the genius on August 31, 2018, 05:01:26 PM
Rotich insists on the fuel tax! The president may invoke art 115. Send all the amendments to finance bill back to N.A with memorandum. To even just discuss the memorandum, you need 236 Members.

https://citizentv.co.ke/business/fuel-tax-must-be-implemented-from-september-1-rotich-211071/ (https://citizentv.co.ke/business/fuel-tax-must-be-implemented-from-september-1-rotich-211071/)
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: GeeMail on September 02, 2018, 10:46:39 PM
So Higgins, all that the MPs need to do is to boycott the session where the matter is debated and we have a good stalemate?
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: GeeMail on September 03, 2018, 01:44:57 PM
Ruto is acting prezzo. Why can't he overturn the fuel hikes and become the hero while his boss is away?
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: patel on September 03, 2018, 04:56:24 PM
Raila and Ruto are only chiming in for headlines I doubt they care. When is the last time Raila or Ruto fuelled their fleet using their own money? You can't live at such comfort financed by tax payers then turn around and claim to sympathize with the natives.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 12, 2018, 08:41:20 AM
Banks are just buying bonds and making a killing https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Banks--investment-in-bonds-tops-Sh1trn/4259442-4753082-vrwiwv/index.html .Meanwhile private sector is being starved.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 12, 2018, 09:50:39 AM
It time gov started privatize many of it's companies and make some money from it - that will force the banks to lend or innovate - and will help defray some of the borrowings.
Banks are just buying bonds and making a killing https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Banks--investment-in-bonds-tops-Sh1trn/4259442-4753082-vrwiwv/index.html .Meanwhile private sector is being starved.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 12, 2018, 10:15:16 AM
It time gov started privatize many of it's companies and make some money from it - that will force the banks to lend or innovate - and will help defray some of the borrowings.
Banks are just buying bonds and making a killing https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Banks--investment-in-bonds-tops-Sh1trn/4259442-4753082-vrwiwv/index.html .Meanwhile private sector is being starved.
Yes government should sell its shareholding in all the companies that it has equity. That and further deregulation and  liberalization in all sectors. Also this will reduce crony capitalism, where Ruto calls KCB to give out loan to your friend.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 12, 2018, 10:32:56 AM
Exactly. That will mean firing Rotich and bringing in a kimunya like expert at fire-sale. It's time for gov to hire an auctioneer. Someone with expertise in equity market.
Yes government should sell its shareholding in all the companies that it has equity. That and further deregulation and  liberalization in all sectors. Also this will reduce crony capitalism, where Ruto calls KCB to give out loan to your friend.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: gout on September 12, 2018, 02:59:14 PM
These banks will be hit hard! I expect to see Mwangi crying just the same way Kiboro is now crying after several of telling us how peace was important for the economy!! While Kenyatta's are lending through Mshwari directly to Kenyans, these banks believe governments never get broke.  Who thought NMG would be junk in months after government refusal to pay for PR and NIS reporting is good for 'buyers' who have ready billions - same way for dead Mumias and dying Portland Cement.

Mzungu can't be this cocky for nothing but with definition and GDP rebasing option we are cruising.

Quote
Rating agency Moody’s says in a new analysis of Kenya’s fiscal position that annual borrowing could hit 20 per cent (Sh1.77 trillion) of the gross domestic product (Sh8.845 trillion) or triple the budgeted deficit of Sh559 billion if fails to implement key reform measures.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-warned-against-removing-petroleum-tax/539546-4755584-kwm550/index.html
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 13, 2018, 04:53:24 PM
Rotich wont renew IMF standby insurance loan https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-allows-IMF-cushion-to-sink/539546-4757934-n9i8qvz/index.html This allows him to shelf the fuel VAT. This is ostensibly being done to give political cover. The other day he was vehemently against shelving VAT on fuel but now he's willing to hold on implementation. This is going to test strength of the shilling and forex reserves. Its likely shilling will weaken which will mean price of fuel will still go up. Rotich is also staring at 71b addition deficit if he doesn't vat fuel. I'll bet the shilling will weaken and it has already started https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDKES:CUR
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: patel on September 13, 2018, 05:41:50 PM
catch 22....I think we would have been better off paying this VAT than letting the shilling slide. For those who are for completing the journey with Uhuru tighten your seat belts


Rotich wont renew IMF standby insurance loan https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-allows-IMF-cushion-to-sink/539546-4757934-n9i8qvz/index.html This allows him to shelf the fuel VAT. This is ostensibly being done to give political cover. The other day he was vehemently against shelving VAT on fuel but now he's willing to hold on implementation. This is going to test strength of the shilling and forex reserves. Its likely shilling will weaken which will mean price of fuel will still go up. Rotich is also staring at 71b addition deficit if he doesn't vat fuel. I'll bet the shilling will weaken and it has already started https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDKES:CUR
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: Georgesoros on September 13, 2018, 06:24:32 PM
catch 22....I think we would have been better off paying this VAT than letting the shilling slide. For those who are for completing the journey with Uhuru tighten your seat belts


Rotich wont renew IMF standby insurance loan https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Kenya-allows-IMF-cushion-to-sink/539546-4757934-n9i8qvz/index.html This allows him to shelf the fuel VAT. This is ostensibly being done to give political cover. The other day he was vehemently against shelving VAT on fuel but now he's willing to hold on implementation. This is going to test strength of the shilling and forex reserves. Its likely shilling will weaken which will mean price of fuel will still go up. Rotich is also staring at 71b addition deficit if he doesn't vat fuel. I'll bet the shilling will weaken and it has already started https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDKES:CUR

Either way prices will go up. Shilling weakens prices go up. VAT implemented prices go up. I'd rather he had taken a more pragmatic approach and let VAT in. At least it will not be as severe as letting the currency slide. Even better is cut govt spending.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 13, 2018, 07:12:28 PM
Good news. Look like Gov will defy IMF. I had rather we raise the whole VAT from 16% back to 18% - rather than lording taxes on already over-taxed product like fuel. We don't need IMF cushion - when we have double the forex we need to cushion ourselves. The best strategy is to exit IMF program quietly so we don't alarm the forex markets. That is the only challenge I see. To guard against the usual negativos.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: GeeMail on September 13, 2018, 07:36:48 PM
MPs are asking for another moratorium on these IMF animals for another 2 years. Rotich is very likely to agree. The animals will be let loose again just before 2022.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 13, 2018, 11:06:36 PM
Good news. Look like Gov will defy IMF. I had rather we raise the whole VAT from 16% back to 18% - rather than lording taxes on already over-taxed product like fuel. We don't need IMF cushion - when we have double the forex we need to cushion ourselves. The best strategy is to exit IMF program quietly so we don't alarm the forex markets. That is the only challenge I see. To guard against the usual negativos.
This is where rubber meets the road. We shall see whether kenya needs IMF standby insurance. Given already Shilling is weakening which btw will force CBK to come to market tomorrow to buy shilling to shore up KES depleting that vaunted forex reserve. I am holding on to my USD and exchaning KES for USD as a hedge. Pundit how is treasury going to plug the 71b deficit if they wont vat fuel? And this is in addition to 29b deficit of PAYE, due to layoffs?
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: MOON Ki on September 14, 2018, 03:21:00 AM
This is where rubber meets the road. We shall see whether kenya needs IMF standby insurance. Given already Shilling is weakening which btw will force CBK to come to market tomorrow to buy shilling to shore up KES depleting that vaunted forex reserve. I am holding on to my USD and exchaning KES for USD as a hedge. Pundit how is treasury going to plug the 71b deficit if they wont vat fuel? And this is in addition to 29b deficit of PAYE, due to layoffs?

This.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 14, 2018, 07:00:58 AM
Uhuru rejected finance bill so vat stays https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Uhuru-rejects-Finance-Bill--fuel-remains-at-same-price/539546-4758544-vej4mh/index.html . So kenya is being screwed twice. Vat on fuel and withdraw of standby insurance which has led to depreciating KES. If KES weakens to 105 the price of fuel will be about 135. The prudent thing is to slash the budget. Jubilee mentality is the bigger the budget(no matter how its financed) the better, forgetting budget size doesn't directly correlates to economic development. The budget size(especially deficits) in kenya is hampering economic development.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 14, 2018, 07:09:58 AM
We collect about 4 - 5 b dollars as vat..if we want to raise 70b more..we just need to raise vat to 17-18% from 16%.I had rather we raise vat to 18% on everything but leave fuel which is already overtaxed and would have the same systemic impact anyway.So raise vat to 18% and leave fuel alone.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 14, 2018, 10:31:40 AM
We collect about 4 - 5 b dollars as vat..if we want to raise 70b more..we just need to raise vat to 17-18% from 16%.I had rather we raise vat to 18% on everything but leave fuel which is already overtaxed and would have the same systemic impact anyway.So raise vat to 18% and leave fuel alone.
KRA collects about 3b on vat not 4-5 https://www.icpak.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ICPAK-FISCAL-ANALYSIS-2010-2015.pdf . Its very simple just slice the budget and enforce stringent financial management to reduce excesses. 
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 14, 2018, 10:40:25 AM
Why are you using figures from 2010-2015 - when we are discusccing 2018/2019. KRA based on my calculation is expecting to collect 4-5B dollars from VAT (roughly 25% of total taxes)...and just raising VAT from 16 to 17-18% will be enough to plug this hole. Yes the budget can be reduced - but that will most likely mean slicing development portion of the budget!! Gov has little wriggle room - recurrent expeditur, debt repayment, unfunded pension and all the many constitutional bodies including counties that draw from consolidated funds - mean the only way is to slice 70B from development budget - that is about how much we are spending annually on the railway - so basically it as good as stopping SGR!!

So yes I think gov should simply consider raising vat from 16% to 18% for everything...it will be small pain all over the body than one sharp prick from the fuel. Fuel is already super-loaded with levies...so it reached the breaking point. It already generate a lot of billions for road maintenance.

And beside the rest of East Africa has 18% VAT - so ours is distorting the common market.

KRA collects about 3b on vat not 4-5 https://www.icpak.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ICPAK-FISCAL-ANALYSIS-2010-2015.pdf . Its very simple just slice the budget and enforce stringent financial management to reduce excesses. 
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: MOON Ki on September 14, 2018, 02:04:47 PM
Its very simple just slice the budget and enforce stringent financial management to reduce excesses. 

Take a look at the Auditor-General's report for any one of the last few years.   The major thefts---NYS gunias of cash in basements etc.---are well known.   Lesser known is the thieving that is all over the place.   I did some quick sums on last year's report, and, even with rough calculations, it looked like well over 20%  in the year was either stolen directly (money just disappeared) or indirectly (paying, say, 20K shillings for something that actually costs 2K shillings).   

What you propose, which makes a great deal of sense,  cannot happen right now ... unless you have it mind that the eaters will suddenly become herbivores.   
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: gout on September 14, 2018, 02:25:23 PM
Now we are on to the mega dams - this is the next cash cows - kickbacks and land compensation are fool proof milking tactics. Out of the 600 billion 450 is up for grabs. As usual it has the moral arguments - we do this or people starve. The road to hell is surely paved with good intentions.

I like self preservation approach by Pundit- don't touch fuel - my truck business is bleeding - this is what is missing in Africa.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 14, 2018, 02:42:14 PM
Uhuru - propose reduction of VAT from 16% to 8% - super petrol kshs 127 to kshs 118 - diesel 115 to 107.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: gout on September 14, 2018, 03:30:57 PM
Quite sensible and clever compromise for the noise of Kenyans and the IMF/markets signalling. Budget cuts and talk of tightening belts shows the shape of Treasury. Seems he owns the corruption baby with increments to courts and DCI.

Uhuru - propose reduction of VAT from 16% to 8% - super petrol kshs 127 to kshs 118 - diesel 115 to 107.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: Georgesoros on September 15, 2018, 12:07:16 AM
Quite sensible and clever compromise for the noise of Kenyans and the IMF/markets signalling. Budget cuts and talk of tightening belts shows the shape of Treasury. Seems he owns the corruption baby with increments to courts and DCI.

Uhuru - propose reduction of VAT from 16% to 8% - super petrol kshs 127 to kshs 118 - diesel 115 to 107.
If that gets parliament approval i think its good.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 15, 2018, 08:36:41 AM
In my humble opinion there's nothing good or clever about uhuru's proposals. Shilling is still under pressure and CBK on thursday predictably had to rush to markets to sell dollars. Which means by months end the much vaunted forex reserves will have reduced. And that will reduce CBK firepower to protect the KES. Also as clearly pointed out by one of the analyst Eurobond holders might recall principal and interest due to withdraw of IMF standby loan https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Markets-tense-as-Rotich-drops-IMF-backup-loan/539546-4758958-11d58l5/. This would be a nightmare. Uhuru should have established office of budget and management. This office would have been responsible of evaluation of all government expenditure to lower cost of obviously inflated prices.  The 8% vat reduction on fuel should have applied across the board to all products, thus lowering cost of everything that's vatable. The withdraw of IMF standby loan is as a result of failure and unwillingness to reduce budget deficit. Budget deficits its the reason why treasury is crowding out private sector and we consistently have high real interest rates(not the capped rate).BTW even after CBK spending reportedly $200m thursday and friday the KES still depreciated to 100.9 from 100.4.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 15, 2018, 10:05:53 AM
20% of what - qualified audit reports - of the budget? Of state agencies, parastalals & constitutional bodies? Otherwise our budget is already 25% education (majority spend on teachers salary)+25%(debt repayment)+huge percentage on pensions - so basically whatever can be stolen is probably - 20% of the 20-30% development - and maybe huge percentage of recurrent expenditure.
Take a look at the Auditor-General's report for any one of the last few years.   The major thefts---NYS gunias of cash in basements etc.---are well known.   Lesser known is the thieving that is all over the place.   I did some quick sums on last year's report, and, even with rough calculations, it looked like well over 20%  in the year was either stolen directly (money just disappeared) or indirectly (paying, say, 20K shillings for something that actually costs 2K shillings).   

What you propose, which makes a great deal of sense,  cannot happen right now ... unless you have it mind that the eaters will suddenly become herbivores.   
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: Georgesoros on September 15, 2018, 03:07:32 PM
In my humble opinion there's nothing good or clever about uhuru's proposals. Shilling is still under pressure and CBK on thursday predictably had to rush to markets to sell dollars. Which means by months end the much vaunted forex reserves will have reduced. And that will reduce CBK firepower to protect the KES. Also as clearly pointed out by one of the analyst Eurobond holders might recall principal and interest due to withdraw of IMF standby loan https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Markets-tense-as-Rotich-drops-IMF-backup-loan/539546-4758958-11d58l5/. This would be a nightmare. Uhuru should have established office of budget and management. This office would have been responsible of evaluation of all government expenditure to lower cost of obviously inflated prices.  The 8% vat reduction on fuel should have applied across the board to all products, thus lowering cost of everything that's vatable. The withdraw of IMF standby loan is as a result of failure and unwillingness to reduce budget deficit. Budget deficits its the reason why treasury is crowding out private sector and we consistently have high real interest rates(not the capped rate).BTW even after CBK spending reportedly $200m thursday and friday the KES still depreciated to 100.9 from 100.4.

I agree with you here. There is need to reduce taxes across the board to 8%.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: GeeMail on September 15, 2018, 07:35:02 PM
I'm just wondering if the reduced/increased VAT will spur growth in some major sectors that will generate jobs and spending that KRA will reap from. If that does not happen, while inflation rises and the markets are depressed in major ways, KRA will still miss targets and long-term everybody suffers. The only beneficiaries are the fat cats who will still steal the little we have in the basket and build/buy hotels, votes etc.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: Georgesoros on September 15, 2018, 11:00:50 PM
I'm just wondering if the reduced/increased VAT will spur growth in some major sectors that will generate jobs and spending that KRA will reap from. If that does not happen, while inflation rises and the markets are depressed in major ways, KRA will still miss targets and long-term everybody suffers. The only beneficiaries are the fat cats who will still steal the little we have in the basket and build/buy hotels, votes etc.
Gee,
People will spend more instead of paying h govt. 8% for everything is fair.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 18, 2018, 08:31:29 AM
So uhuru wants to give betting companies reprieve  https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/President-halves-betting-tax-to-15pc/3946234-4764520-fcd4xpz/index.html while taxing fuel 8%VAT? And oh yes instead of reducing wage bill the crackhead hires more people https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/09/18/uhuru-hires-45-in-presidential-delivery-unit-to-build-legacy_c1820073 . Uhuru and jubilee government legacy is set in stone; complete incompetence.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: hk on September 18, 2018, 10:11:19 PM
Jubilee government is raiding taxpayers pockets https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Workers-homes-levy-pay-deduction-up-three-times/3946234-4766296-98nwoo/index.html , This was increased from 0.5%.  Mpesa boom https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Uhuru-slaps-M-Pesa-with-66pc-mobile-cash-tax-rise/3946234-4766292-q25u7t/index.html increase of 66% on excise duty. Even airtime https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Airtime--data-price-rise-fears-/3946234-4766294-c8xgvyz/index.html . This is a horror movie. This essentially is being done to try to bridge the Gap on financing . So apart from taxing fuel 8% vat , Jubilee government also proposes to increase excise tax on money transfer, airtime, housing allowance  and God knows what else.
There's no way anyone who's affiliated with jubilee will get elected.
Title: Re: Parliament defy IMF and Banks - DOUBLE DOWN on the Interest Capping
Post by: RV Pundit on September 19, 2018, 09:57:32 AM
If this is what will take to get more railways, roads, water dams and ports - so be it. If this is what will take to get free primary, free day secondary, free university and tivets - universal healthcare with NHIF that cover all treatments including cancers & likes - 1-2m housing schemes - and huge social program - this will work. Scandavian taxes 50% of their GDP - we are not even at 20%. South Africa are at 25%.

Education already takes 20% of all taxes collected - and that make sense - more than half of kenyan population are under 18 - school going kids - and we have to invest in them.

My friend stop thinking gov is some business motivated by profit. It isn't. Gov has higher ideals.

I think people will vote or not vote based on all those factors combined. Jubilee has done a good job and were resoundingly elected last year...nicking 54% of the vote...and I don't see why Ruto won't be elected again in 2022.

Jubilee government is raiding taxpayers pockets https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Workers-homes-levy-pay-deduction-up-three-times/3946234-4766296-98nwoo/index.html , This was increased from 0.5%.  Mpesa boom https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Uhuru-slaps-M-Pesa-with-66pc-mobile-cash-tax-rise/3946234-4766292-q25u7t/index.html increase of 66% on excise duty. Even airtime https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Airtime--data-price-rise-fears-/3946234-4766294-c8xgvyz/index.html . This is a horror movie. This essentially is being done to try to bridge the Gap on financing . So apart from taxing fuel 8% vat , Jubilee government also proposes to increase excise tax on money transfer, airtime, housing allowance  and God knows what else.
There's no way anyone who's affiliated with jubilee will get elected.
Jubilee government is raiding taxpayers pockets https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Workers-homes-levy-pay-deduction-up-three-times/3946234-4766296-98nwoo/index.html , This was increased from 0.5%.  Mpesa boom https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Uhuru-slaps-M-Pesa-with-66pc-mobile-cash-tax-rise/3946234-4766292-q25u7t/index.html increase of 66% on excise duty. Even airtime https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Airtime--data-price-rise-fears-/3946234-4766294-c8xgvyz/index.html . This is a horror movie. This essentially is being done to try to bridge the Gap on financing . So apart from taxing fuel 8% vat , Jubilee government also proposes to increase excise tax on money transfer, airtime, housing allowance  and God knows what else.
There's no way anyone who's affiliated with jubilee will get elected.