Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: MOON Ki on August 21, 2018, 04:25:34 AM
-
We Cannot Afford This: Malaysia Pushes Back on China’s Big Projects
A country that once courted Chinese investment now fears becoming overly indebted for projects that are neither viable nor necessary — except to China.
“We do not want a situation where there is a new version of colonialism happening because poor countries are unable to compete with rich countries,” Mr. Mahathir
...
From Sri Lanka and Djibouti to Myanmar and Montenegro, many recipients of cash from Chinese’s huge infrastructure financing campaign, the Belt and Road Initiative, have discovered that Chinese investment brings with it less-savory accompaniments, including closed bidding processes that result in inflated contracts and influxes of Chinese labor at the expense of local workers.
Fears are growing that China is using its overseas spending spree to gain footholds in some of the world’s most strategic places, and perhaps even deliberately luring vulnerable nations into debt traps to increase China’s dominion as the United States’ influence fades in the developing world.
Story: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/20/world/asia/china-malaysia.html
On the other hand, there's a part of the world where the wake-up call will be heeded only when it's too late.
-
Ndii is onto something
The Belt and Road Initiative, China’s ambitious attempt to create a global infrastructure corridor spanning 65 countries and connecting 60 percent of the world’s population, is the biggest imperial coming-out party in modern history. Not by armed conquest but by a strategy of debt-financed diplomacy, from Sri Lanka to Montenegro, from Islamabad to Mombasa, China is deploying its $3.2 trillion credit surplus to establish a 21st century Oriental Empire, impoverishing entire continents through the allure of roads, railways and bridges. DAVID NDII conducts a global cost-benefit analysis
Read more at: https://www.theeastafricanreview.info/op-eds/2018/08/18/chinas-debt-imperialism-the-art-of-war-by-other-means/
E Review.
-
The usual ndii nonsense.
-
The usual ndii nonsense.
We will rebase our gdp to lower our foreign debt to gdp ratio... EoD
-
Yeah we are due for a re-basing - the recommended year is every 5yrs - and so after next year census - together with 2016 household survey - we should be due for another rebasing around 2020/2021..around 7yr cycle..we should be aiming to reduce our rebasing from 10 yr cycle to 5yrs. Huge GDP IS LEVERAGE. It is an asset we can deploy to borrow more and kick poverty & underdevelopment..by investing hugely in infrastructure.
SGR is the largest component of our foreign debt - all indicators are it will pay for itself (now into 8 cargo train) - so in short - we need to write that debt out of treasury book and transfer it to Kenya Railway Corporation. And borrow MORE...especially from CHINESE..who are giving us quality loans!
The problem previously with western aid - is most of it would end up in western capital - but Chinese have figured out how to work in corrupt countries and that western envy. Chinese do not lend their money "fwaaaaaaaaaaaaah" - they make sure the money is paid directly to chinese contractor who deliver the roads, ports, railways and name. Western Aid donors seem to oscillate btw lending to thieving Gov or thieving NGO..at the end of the day...the country is littered with huge loans, really silly small project all over i.e cattle dips or water pans and NO IMPACT.
And really we focus on what China has lend us..but never what China has given us for free....expansion of road from JKIA through Mombasa road to Gigiri..free..Kasarani stadium free....NAIROBI by-passes -FREE.
As for Dr Ndii nonsense....the evidence of Africa economic transformation in just a decade of China engagement is self-manifesting. If he cannot see it, he should try to touch it. Never before has Africa prospect been this good.
We will rebase our gdp to lower our foreign debt to gdp ratio... EoD
-
https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Treasury-warns-of-hard-times-as-debt-burden-grows/1056-4721726-rc8yfnz/index.html (https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Treasury-warns-of-hard-times-as-debt-burden-grows/1056-4721726-rc8yfnz/index.html)
-
Yeah we are due for a re-basing - the recommended year is every 5yrs - and so after next year census - together with 2016 household survey - we should be due for another rebasing around 2020/2021..around 7yr cycle..we should be aiming to reduce our rebasing from 10 yr cycle to 5yrs. Huge GDP IS LEVERAGE. It is an asset we can deploy to borrow more and kick poverty & underdevelopment..by investing hugely in infrastructure.
SGR is the largest component of our foreign debt - all indicators are it will pay for itself (now into 8 cargo train) - so in short - we need to write that debt out of treasury book and transfer it to Kenya Railway Corporation. And borrow MORE...especially from CHINESE..who are giving us quality loans!
The problem previously with western aid - is most of it would end up in western capital - but Chinese have figured out how to work in corrupt countries and that western envy. Chinese do not lend their money "fwaaaaaaaaaaaaah" - they make sure the money is paid directly to chinese contractor who deliver the roads, ports, railways and name. Western Aid donors seem to oscillate btw lending to thieving Gov or thieving NGO..at the end of the day...the country is littered with huge loans, really silly small project all over i.e cattle dips or water pans and NO IMPACT.
And really we focus on what China has lend us..but never what China has given us for free....expansion of road from JKIA through Mombasa road to Gigiri..free..Kasarani stadium free....NAIROBI by-passes -FREE.
As for Dr Ndii nonsense....the evidence of Africa economic transformation in just a decade of China engagement is self-manifesting. If he cannot see it, he should try to touch it. Never before has Africa prospect been this good.
We will rebase our gdp to lower our foreign debt to gdp ratio... EoD
So why are all these countries handing over their ‘flagship’ projects to Kung Fu? Why are they going belly up after Kung Fu debt binge?
It’s true Kung Fu has enviable liquidity and they are bored with the near zero returns on US bonds so they are splashing it all over the world,and this in many cases is on dubious projects.
We will over and above servicing SGR debt subsidize it because it just is not working
-
If you can't build shiet, Chinese will build it. If you cannot ran shiet, Chinese will ran it. I don't see how that is bad thing. If we hand over say LAMU port to Chinese..it doesn't mean it been annexed to China. Lamu port will remain under kenya laws...just being operated by China.
China as you rightly say have huge forex and huge construction & manufacturing machine - only a fool won't take advantage of it. US has been taking advantage of it and when they started screwing up the chinese by printing dollars (QE) - Chinese have to think about alternative investment and that could be us!!!
SGR is not white elephant - let deal with facts.
China has developed by doing exactly what they are trying to help other countries. Building new rails, cities, ports....when everyone was out there saying..ohoo that is not sustainable..ohoo why do you need bullet trains? why do you need huge cities....but look at china now.
Chinese are very smart and very hardworking. Only a fool would listen to western world when evidence of Chinese miracle is there to see.
Now China are working towards become a developed world - avoiding middle class traps - by not banking their dollars at home - and that is the money that is crying for anyone to take it. We need to grab it. China has trillion of dollars waiting for anyone with half-arsed proposal and they could be coming out with shiny airports, ports, railways, cities and name it.
So why are all these countries handing over their ‘flagship’ projects to Kung Fu? Why are they going belly up after Kung Fu debt binge?
It’s true Kung Fu has enviable liquidity and they are bored with the near zero returns on US bonds so they are splashing it all over the world,and this in many cases is on dubious projects.
We will over and above servicing SGR debt subsidize it because it just is not working
-
If you can't build shiet, Chinese will build it. If you cannot ran shiet, Chinese will ran it. I don't see how that is bad thing. If we hand over say LAMU port to Chinese..it doesn't mean it been annexed to China. Lamu port will remain under kenya laws...just being operated by China.
China as you rightly say have huge forex and huge construction & manufacturing machine - only a fool won't take advantage of it. US has been taking advantage of it and when they started screwing up the chinese by printing dollars (QE) - Chinese have to think about alternative investment and that could be us!!!
SGR is not white elephant - let deal with facts.
China has developed by doing exactly what they are trying to help other countries. Building new rails, cities, ports....when everyone was out there saying..ohoo that is not sustainable..ohoo why do you need bullet trains? why do you need huge cities....but look at china now.
Chinese are very smart and very hardworking. Only a fool would listen to western world when evidence of Chinese miracle is there to see.
Now China are working towards become a developed world - avoiding middle class traps - by not banking their dollars at home - and that is the money that is crying for anyone to take it. We need to grab it. China has trillion of dollars waiting for anyone with half-arsed proposal and they could be coming out with shiny airports, ports, railways, cities and name it.
So why are all these countries handing over their ‘flagship’ projects to Kung Fu? Why are they going belly up after Kung Fu debt binge?
It’s true Kung Fu has enviable liquidity and they are bored with the near zero returns on US bonds so they are splashing it all over the world,and this in many cases is on dubious projects.
We will over and above servicing SGR debt subsidize it because it just is not working
Kung Fu grew by promoting manufacturing and export. Infrastructure is simply a byproduct.
But the most important thing is how low their external debt has been at no more than 16%
(https://s15.postimg.cc/rc5mnzlm3/24626672-130_F-4_E02-_BB3_B-236269712_BB8.png)
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/external-debt--of-nominal-gdp
Ours has breached 50% and we are so badly exposed to forex risks hence why we are basically begging IMF to ‘insure’ us.
Actually, government spending (bullet rains,cities) in Kung Fu has been more of trying to prop or sustain GDP growth,and they are overdoing it resulting in ghost cities and other infrastructure with minimal to negative returns.
Too much debt and you are owned until you pay back. Kenya has taken too much external debt. 5.8 trillions and pushing.
-
The country with strongest currency against usd in africa has forex risk.That is nonsense.We have 3b..more forex..than what imf are promising.SGR is already a roaring success.we are hitting 5yrs projection in 1yr.We just need the courage to diplomatically tell imf off.Kibaki left us with 45%..Jubilee added mainly the sucessfully sgr.Great job.Uhuru need to stop misguided war against the economy and nurture confidence in the future prospects..allowing cops to seize goods willy nilly or destroying building is surest way to poverty..not debt.we dont need umagufuli here...we need pro business policies...not lynch mobs against private sector.
-
Yeah we are due for a re-basing - the recommended year is every 5yrs - and so after next year census - together with 2016 household survey - we should be due for another rebasing around 2020/2021..around 7yr cycle..we should be aiming to reduce our rebasing from 10 yr cycle to 5yrs. Huge GDP IS LEVERAGE. It is an asset we can deploy to borrow more and kick poverty & underdevelopment..by investing hugely in infrastructure.
SGR is the largest component of our foreign debt - all indicators are it will pay for itself (now into 8 cargo train) - so in short - we need to write that debt out of treasury book and transfer it to Kenya Railway Corporation. And borrow MORE...especially from CHINESE..who are giving us quality loans!
The problem previously with western aid - is most of it would end up in western capital - but Chinese have figured out how to work in corrupt countries and that western envy. Chinese do not lend their money "fwaaaaaaaaaaaaah" - they make sure the money is paid directly to chinese contractor who deliver the roads, ports, railways and name. Western Aid donors seem to oscillate btw lending to thieving Gov or thieving NGO..at the end of the day...the country is littered with huge loans, really silly small project all over i.e cattle dips or water pans and NO IMPACT.
And really we focus on what China has lend us..but never what China has given us for free....expansion of road from JKIA through Mombasa road to Gigiri..free..Kasarani stadium free....NAIROBI by-passes -FREE.
As for Dr Ndii nonsense....the evidence of Africa economic transformation in just a decade of China engagement is self-manifesting. If he cannot see it, he should try to touch it. Never before has Africa prospect been this good.
Am NOT very happy when Dr Ndii take on matters economy are dismissed as nonsense by some funny funny online character
-
Ndii long seized being an economist and became a politician.
Am NOT very happy when Dr Ndii take on matters economy are dismissed as nonsense by some funny funny online character