Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Globalcitizen12 on July 05, 2018, 01:35:19 PM
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This time an aging raila will be pm, mudamba president and waiguru dpork..lol that is how it will go
Ruto kalonzo and wetangula will be opposition
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Gema have the numbers,thats a fact we cant run away from,any GEMA candidate will start with a solid 5 million votes,and thats why they will never play second fiddle to any tribe as far as presidency is concerned,all they need is another one tribe and they are in.2022 game plan is to have PK run,then approach Kalonzo and one Bukusu(Weta or Eugene) for a coalition for re run.Get a few votes in areas like msa,kisii,narok,kajiado and game shot.
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That is one possibility. At least you've started to deal with facts. If only Raila had accepted certain facts early enough.
Gema have the numbers,thats a fact we cant run away from,any GEMA candidate will start with a solid 5 million votes,and thats why they will never play second fiddle to any tribe as far as presidency is concerned,all they need is another one tribe and they are in.2022 game plan is to have PK run,then approach Kalonzo and one Bukusu(Weta or Eugene) for a coalition for re run.Get a few votes in areas like msa,kisii,narok,kajiado and game shot.
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Raila didnt learn but i expected Ruto to learn,unfortunately he too didnt and what befell Raila is about to befall him.GEMA will never support an outsider.
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Ruto is not Raila which is why he is campaigning all over and GEMA is backup plan - not the main plan. You see Ruto learnt from Moi how to win without GEMA. Raila has no idea how to.
Raila didnt learn but i expected Ruto to learn,unfortunately he too didnt and what befell Raila is about to befall him.GEMA will never support an outsider.
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Gema also needs to learn that some coalitions are better than others. The two tribe Kikuyu/Kalenjin was too disestablishing and that is why it had to be ditched so early in its 2nd term. Ouru did not really have a choice. If Ouru does not clamp down hard on Ruto then his entire 2nd term is going to be a campaign season for Ruto's first term. Ouru has created a monster and he has to contain that monster or it will eat him up. Power has gotten into the heads of the Ruto lead Kalenjin leadership and it needs to be humbled before it can lead. Of all the current crop of Kalenjin leaders, Gidi looks and sound more mature to lead Kenya than I ever thought I could say not too long ago.
Raila didnt learn but i expected Ruto to learn,unfortunately he too didnt and what befell Raila is about to befall him.GEMA will never support an outsider.
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Did Ruto stop to think even for a minute how his campaign would affect Ouru's 2nd term as president? The fact that he had to start to campaign right away is a clear sign that he only cares about himself and do not care about ouru's legacy or whether he sidelines/upstages Ouru in his entire 2nd term and render him lame duck and irrelevant. If he does not care for Ouru's 2nd term or legacy then why should Ouru care for his 2022 election? Ruto only has himself to blame. Ouru on the other hand should not have let Ruto get this big but now he has to do what he should have done four years ago.
Ruto is not Raila which is why he is campaigning all over and GEMA is backup plan - not the main plan. You see Ruto learnt from Moi how to win without GEMA. Raila has no idea how to.
Raila didnt learn but i expected Ruto to learn,unfortunately he too didnt and what befell Raila is about to befall him.GEMA will never support an outsider.
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You are taking it for granted Merus and Embus will play ball. Just count Merus this time out. They want one of their own either president or DP. Nothing less. Gema as we knew it died in 2017.
Gema have the numbers,thats a fact we cant run away from,any GEMA candidate will start with a solid 5 million votes,and thats why they will never play second fiddle to any tribe as far as presidency is concerned,all they need is another one tribe and they are in.2022 game plan is to have PK run,then approach Kalonzo and one Bukusu(Weta or Eugene) for a coalition for re run.Get a few votes in areas like msa,kisii,narok,kajiado and game shot.
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Raila didnt learn but i expected Ruto to learn,unfortunately he too didnt and what befell Raila is about to befall him.GEMA will never support an outsider.
You make it sound almost as if he in fact lost and did it because he did not "learn" that GEMA had big numbers, rather than readily demonstrable IEBC tampering with the election. Maybe there was no tampering and we will learn one day when the server is opened :D.
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I am not worried about GEMA political dominance. It not going to last even 5yrs leave alone 20yrs. The pastoralist will again become the most dominant group in Kenya like it's done for 2,000 yrs plus - after 100yrs of GEMA dominance (Maasai were possibly largest tribe in 17-18th century) - I see Kalenjin become largest tribe next year or so after. The voting population will take time given only over 18yrs votes...but generally I am confident that from 2022 - Ruto constitutuency of Kamatusa+somalis+borana will be kicking arse big time. Ruto should work on getting luhyas on board if gema plan A doesn't work.
Kikuyus like Luos before are going down demographically. Luos moved from position 2 (1969 & prior) to position 3 (1979& 1989) to now position 4(2009). Kikuyus are having less and less kids - about 2-3 kids per woman - while luhyas & Kalenjin are still at 5-6 kids I think. The golden demographic age of kikuyus ended in 70-80s!
I am putting my money on Kalenjin become Kenya's largest tribe - If not the luhyas.
2019 (PROJECTED)
Kikuyu – 7.5-8m
Luhya – 7.5-8m
Kalenjin – 7.5-8M - around 9-10M in 2029.
2009
Kikuyu – 6,622,576 (17%) (6.6M) - 145% increase from 1989 - growing at about 2% annual growth rate.
Luhya – 5,338,666(14%)- 170% increase from 1989 - growing at about 2.5% annual growth rate.
Kalenjin – 4,967,328(13%) - 200% increase from 1989 - growing at about 4.5% annual growth rate
1999
I think tribal census were never officially released. Moi got a lot of flak from Luos & Kikuyus after 1989 census so he decided to hide the stats.
1989
Kikuyu - 20.8% (4.5M)
Luhya - 14.4% (3.1M)
Kalenjin - 11.5% (2.5M)
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All that may not mean anything in the end. Just look at how badly the tyranny of numbers did. They could not even sustain stability in the country for Ouru to rule peacefully for two terms. Ouru had to look for Raila, Ruto had to start campaigning 4 years after elections, they had to steal elections, Mama Ngina had to see Moi, etc. Ouruto looted the coffers of the government dry just to compete on equal terms with people outside the government with no means of stealing. It takes more than one's tribal numbers to run a country. I think in the long run, one will not be able to rely on the tribal numbers alone if the tribes mates are not getting any benefits. Numbers are shifting and so are other factors. Predicting the future with only one variable while holding other variables constant always fails miserably.
I am not worried about GEMA political dominance. It not going to last even 5yrs leave alone 20yrs. The pastoralist will again become the most dominant group in Kenya like it's done for 2,000 yrs plus - after 100yrs of GEMA dominance (Maasai were possibly largest tribe in 17-18th century) - I see Kalenjin become largest tribe next year or so after. The voting population will take time given only over 18yrs votes...but generally I am confident that from 2022 - Ruto constitutuency of Kamatusa+somalis+borana will be kicking arse big time. Ruto should work on getting luhyas on board if gema plan A doesn't work.
Kikuyus like Luos before are going down demographically. Luos moved from position 2 (1969 & prior) to position 3 (1979& 1989) to now position 4(2009). Kikuyus are having less and less kids - about 2-3 kids per woman - while luhyas & Kalenjin are still at 5-6 kids I think. The golden demographic age of kikuyus ended in 70-80s!
I am putting my money on Kalenjin become Kenya's largest tribe - If not the luhyas.
2019 (PROJECTED)
Kikuyu – 7.5-8m
Luhya – 7.5-8m
Kalenjin – 7.5-8M - around 9-10M in 2029.
2009
Kikuyu – 6,622,576 (17%) (6.6M) - 145% increase from 1989 - growing at about 2% annual growth rate.
Luhya – 5,338,666(14%)- 170% increase from 1989 - growing at about 2.5% annual growth rate.
Kalenjin – 4,967,328(13%) - 200% increase from 1989 - growing at about 4.5% annual growth rate
1999
I think tribal census were never officially released. Moi got a lot of flak from Luos & Kikuyus after 1989 census so he decided to hide the stats.
1989
Kikuyu - 20.8% (4.5M)
Luhya - 14.4% (3.1M)
Kalenjin - 11.5% (2.5M)
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That has been my position all along.
It is NOT numbers. It is getting rid of the malignant electoral fraud. Until that is dismantled whoever controls it would "win" every election.
GEMA will cry and rue the day they created that machine when some other tribe - say Somali - gain access and control over it.
All that may not mean anything in the end. Just look at how badly the tyranny of numbers did. They could not even sustain stability in the country for Ouru to rule peacefully for two terms. Ouru had to look for Raila, Ruto had to start campaigning 4 years after elections, they had to steal elections, Mama Ngina had to see Moi, etc. Ouruto looted the coffers of the government dry just to compete on equal terms with people outside the government with no means of stealing. It takes more than one's tribal numbers to run a country. I think in the long run, one will not be able to rely on the tribal numbers alone if the tribes mates are not getting any benefits. Numbers are shifting and so are other factors. Predicting the future with only one variable while holding other variables constant always fails miserably.
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How is rigging done when we have deployed expensive technology to prevent that from happening. I find that hard to believe.
That has been my position all along.
It is NOT numbers. It is getting rid of the malignant electoral fraud. Until that is dismantled whoever controls it would "win" every election.
GEMA will cry and rue the day they created that machine when some other tribe - say Somali - gain access and control over it.
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When you debated the SCORK judgement "to the death", was that not covered? I assume you have by now read the entire judgment and the pleadings + affidavits (not just Kassait's). Of Course for better understanding you would need to read Maina Kiai and Others vs The IEBC
I posted Chebukati's Memo to Chiloba.
How is rigging done when we have deployed expensive technology to prevent that from happening. I find that hard to believe.
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Raila lost fair and square except in 2007. The rest of you and kichwa self-defeatist election will always be rigged is nothing more than coping mechanism to deal with a perennial loser you've supported for long. Watch William Ruto bring home the prize.
When you debated the SCORK judgement "to the death", was that not covered? I assume you have by now read the entire judgment and the pleadings + affidavits (not just Kassait's). Of Course for better understanding you would need to read Maina Kiai and Others vs The IEBC
I posted Chebukati's Memo to Chiloba.
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We keep returning to the same thing: Your topsyturvy relationship with facts and truth.
The truth travels with your political alignments. You agree that the election was rigged in 2007 because you were then supporting Ruto within ODM.
You deny that it was rigged in 2013 and 2017 because you were in alliance with the riggers.
Once you read the documents I have generously recommended, you will find why there was no change from 2007. You will find that Kiai and Others Vs IEBC tried to end 2007 but Uhuru resisted. With what remained of his "amendments" of 2017, Kenya has gone further to the pre-2007 period.
I am sure that will greatly aid GEMA in 2022. What an irony that Ruto through Duale passed those "amendments".
Raila lost fair and square except in 2007. The rest of you and kichwa self-defeatist election will always be rigged is nothing more than coping mechanism to deal with a perennial loser you've supported for long. Watch William Ruto bring home the prize.
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Lest your propaganda remain standing:
1. The 2017 election was determined by the Supreme Court of Kenya as having been marred by illegalities and was not conducted in accordance with the constitution. That means it was RIGGED
2. Scholarly articles as well as the judgment of 2017 clearly and unequivocally impugned the 2013 SCORK judgement that gave Uhuru Kenyatta victory. The exclusion of evidence meant that the case was NOT canvassed and therefore there are no grounds to claim it was not rigged. We nevertheless accepted the judgement. You have refused to accept the 2017 judgment - so much for devotion to facts, truth and the rest of the propaganda..
3. The difference between me and you: You cheer Ruto and veer over his transgressions; You glorify theft and plunder: I do not cheer Raila. I support him when he agrees with and works for the values I hold dear and oppose him (publicly) when he does not. I abhor corruption, theft and plunder regardless of who the perpetrator is.
Raila lost fair and square except in 2007. The rest of you and kichwa self-defeatist election will always be rigged is nothing more than coping mechanism to deal with a perennial loser you've supported for long. Watch William Ruto bring home the prize.
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I think there is widespread consensus that 2007 were brazenly rigged.
We keep returning to the same thing: Your topsyturvy relationship with facts and truth.
The truth travels with your political alignments. You agree that the election was rigged in 2007 because you were then supporting Ruto within ODM.
You deny that it was rigged in 2013 and 2017 because you were in alliance with the riggers.
Once you read the documents I have generously recommended, you will find why there was no change from 2007. You will find that Kiai and Others Vs IEBC tried to end 2007 but Uhuru resisted. With what remained of his "amendments" of 2017, Kenya has gone further to the pre-2007 period.
I am sure that will greatly aid GEMA in 2022. What an irony that Ruto through Duale passed those "amendments".
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2007 - The Kriegler Commission stated that it could not determine the winner. I agreed
2013 - There was widespread consensus that it was exactly like 2007 minus the violence
2017 - Exactly like 2017 - with limited violence from The State targeting Luos
I guess when one lives in a cocoon, he really can't hear anything outside it. But your time is coming when you will revise what you think you know. I am not pleased about it.
I think there is widespread consensus that 2007 were brazenly rigged.
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I have my MOASS to relie. You never were able to come up with MOAS showing a Raila win and somehow Chebukati of IEBC was suppose to work some magic. Even Raila himself after spending months with IEBC data - couldn't manage to come up with Raila win. They announced some data showing Raila won but the cookery was so obvious.
My friend and partner in crime of rigging using excel Prof Charles Hornsby - ripped apart Raila fakery
http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog/nasa-results-part-5-conclusion-the-faker-is-exposed
2007 - The Kriegler Commission stated that it could not determine the winner. I agreed
2013 - There was widespread consensus that it was exactly like 2007 minus the violence
2017 - Exactly like 2017 - with limited violence from The State targeting Luos
I guess when one lives in a cocoon, he really can't hear anything outside it. But your time is coming when you will revise what you think you know. I am not pleased about it.
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Prof Charles Hornsby is good.
I got closest in my article in June, which predicted a 55-45% victory, In fact, the closer to the election we got and the more information I acquired, the less accurate my predictions were. In fact, I had begun to doubt my own numbers and modified my eve-of-poll prediction from 53-47% (which the spreadsheet suggested) to 52% to 48%. I left however the predicted votes for each candidate the same, and there I was pretty close: the official constituency Form 34Bs show that Kenyatta beat Odinga by 8.2 million to 6.8 million votes, compared to which I had predicted 8 million to 7 million.
Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
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All this would be settled once and for all if the information collected by Morpho and handed over to the IEBC on the August elections were released. Why would Uhuru (and you) have to suffer the pain of your alleged 54% victory being questioned and delegitimized when you can put a full stop to it all by just releasing the data?
The reason is simple: It shows a first round win for Raila.
As for your paid poor white men peddling crap for peanuts, you know which part of your body to hide them.
Prof Charles Hornsby is good.
I got closest in my article in June, which predicted a 55-45% victory, In fact, the closer to the election we got and the more information I acquired, the less accurate my predictions were. In fact, I had begun to doubt my own numbers and modified my eve-of-poll prediction from 53-47% (which the spreadsheet suggested) to 52% to 48%. I left however the predicted votes for each candidate the same, and there I was pretty close: the official constituency Form 34Bs show that Kenyatta beat Odinga by 8.2 million to 6.8 million votes, compared to which I had predicted 8 million to 7 million.
Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
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I did not have to read far to find that the entire work you are proud of is nothing short of witchcraft.
It falls on the principle: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus. If the IEBC data is contaminated, the product is itself contaminated.
Then there is something you have not thought about.
1. Your first MOAS was withdrawn in a hurry after I went through and discovered glaring errors. It had the figure 52%. At that time Hornsby was peddling 53%. You went away and promptly returned with 53%.
2. Shortly after "Cheeseman" by his own "scientific" methods came out with about the same - 52 then 53. It smacked of collusion and collaboration;
3. You use a method unknown in physical and social science. Would you like to publish an article in a refereed journal so all of us can read and use the same to reach the same findings as you did? We sent a similar request to both Cheeseman and Hornsby and plan to have them impeached as scholars (if indeed they are scholars) or if they continue to peddle the same sorcery and call it science. A comprehensive review of their work in the Uhuru Electoral Fraud is being undertaken to make the case.
Obviously you are chokora in these matters and we can only throw pebbles at you like we do to stray mongrels. You require no special attention. Your accomplices however is a different matter.
The last I heard of it was trying to identify whether there is any existing persons by the name "Professor" Cheeseman and "Professor" Hornsby. That is because most European countries have a tradition of not using such titles - even PhDs - if one is not in employment (as a professor) or not engaged in scholarship. There are some exceptions - Britain for instance.
Prof Charles Hornsby is good.
I got closest in my article in June, which predicted a 55-45% victory, In fact, the closer to the election we got and the more information I acquired, the less accurate my predictions were. In fact, I had begun to doubt my own numbers and modified my eve-of-poll prediction from 53-47% (which the spreadsheet suggested) to 52% to 48%. I left however the predicted votes for each candidate the same, and there I was pretty close: the official constituency Form 34Bs show that Kenyatta beat Odinga by 8.2 million to 6.8 million votes, compared to which I had predicted 8 million to 7 million.
Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
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You're a sick puppy.
I did not have to read far to find that the entire work you are proud of is nothing short of witchcraft.
It falls on the principle: Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus. If the IEBC data is contaminated, the product is itself contaminated.
Then there is something you have not thought about.
1. Your first MOAS was withdrawn in a hurry after I went through and discovered glaring errors. It had the figure 52%. At that time Hornsby was peddling 53%. You went away and promptly returned with 53%.
2. Shortly after "Cheeseman" by his own "scientific" methods came out with about the same - 52 then 53. It smacked of collusion and collaboration;
3. You use a method unknown in physical and social science. Would you like to publish an article in a refereed journal so all of us can read and use the same to reach the same findings as you did? We sent a similar request to both Cheeseman and Hornsby and plan to have them impeached as scholars (if indeed they are scholars) or if they continue to peddle the same sorcery and call it science. A comprehensive review of their work in the Uhuru Electoral Fraud is being undertaken to make the case.
Obviously you are chokora in these matters and we can only throw pebbles at you like we do to stray mongrels. You require no special attention. Your accomplices however is a different matter.
The last I heard of it was trying to identify whether there is any existing persons by the name "Professor" Cheeseman and "Professor" Hornsby. That is because most European countries have a tradition of not using such titles - even PhDs - if one is not in employment (as a professor) or not engaged in scholarship. There are some exceptions - Britain for instance.
Prof Charles Hornsby is good.
I got closest in my article in June, which predicted a 55-45% victory, In fact, the closer to the election we got and the more information I acquired, the less accurate my predictions were. In fact, I had begun to doubt my own numbers and modified my eve-of-poll prediction from 53-47% (which the spreadsheet suggested) to 52% to 48%. I left however the predicted votes for each candidate the same, and there I was pretty close: the official constituency Form 34Bs show that Kenyatta beat Odinga by 8.2 million to 6.8 million votes, compared to which I had predicted 8 million to 7 million.
Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.
https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/09/07/forms-and-substance-comparing-predictions-and-results-from-kenyas-general-election/
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You're a sick puppy.
Ad hominem