Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Omollo on June 24, 2018, 09:32:06 PM
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Uhuru would have become a spent force.
GEMA will field a candidate and cobble together a new alliance.
MPs who are now supporting Ruto will poll their constituencies and finding the mood against Ruto will bolt faster than thieving stray dogs
Possible Scenarios:
1. Original ODM back together with Ruto as Presidential Candidate (meaning Ruto - Raila Deal)
2. Ruto cobbles together an alliance and runs alone
3. GEMA revives the Luo-Kikuyu alliance
3. Every man (Tribe) for himself : Ruto, GEMA and ODM
Runoff
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The given in my view is that both Raila and Ruto will be competing for PORK if constitution doesn't change. If constitution is amended to expand executive & include PM - that changes the political game significantly - and I fancy Uhuru trying to go for PM. Therefore the big battle is going to be referendum - Ruto has to dissuade Uhuru from such ideas get into his head. He need to do this by starting war on handshake soon enough to paralyze GOK - Uhuru has no stomach for a big & long fight - and will accept his retirement - rather than rip apart Jubilee & his Gov.
Uhuru would have become a spent force.
GEMA will field a candidate and cobble together a new alliance.
MPs who are now supporting Ruto will poll their constituencies and finding the mood against Ruto will bolt faster than thieving stray dogs
Possible Scenarios:
1. Original ODM back together with Ruto as Presidential Candidate (meaning Ruto - Raila Deal)
2. Ruto cobbles together an alliance and runs alone
3. GEMA revives the Luo-Kikuyu alliance
3. Every man (Tribe) for himself : Ruto, GEMA and ODM
Runoff
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Uhuru has a pre-election deal with Moi and a post election deal with Raila.
He has a deal with Ruto (made before the other two). How do you expect him to renege on the Raila and Moi deals?
Uhuru is trying to lay the ground to honour both deals by sidelining Ruto.
The given in my view is that both Raila and Ruto will be competing for PORK if constitution doesn't change. If constitution is amended to expand executive & include PM - that changes the political game significantly - and I fancy Uhuru trying to go for PM. Therefore the big battle is going to be referendum - Ruto has to dissuade Uhuru from such ideas get into his head. He need to do this by starting war on handshake soon enough to paralyze GOK - Uhuru has no stomach for a big & long fight - and will accept his retirement - rather than rip apart Jubilee & his Gov.
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Uhuru will be out there looking out for Uhuru. That is given. The only public deal I am aware of - is of him supporting Ruto and he has said as much..including very recently when he told Raila publicly to forget about referendum and wait to battle Ruto. I expect such support to be conditional. Ruto will still need to offer Uhuru the best deal in the game. Moi & his clans - are not things we need to seriously debate here.
Uhuru has a pre-election deal with Moi and a post election deal with Raila.
He has a deal with Ruto (made before the other two). How do you expect him to renege on the Raila and Moi deals?
Uhuru is trying to lay the ground to honour both deals by sidelining Ruto.
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2022 foregone conclusion Ruto takes it.
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2022 foregone conclusion Ruto takes it.
If he controls IEBC :D. Redundant. But true.
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PK will run as a kikuyu candidate,Raila as a luo candidate,Ruto as a kalenjin candidate,kalonzowill go with kambas,Mudavadi & Weta will run as Luhyas.PK and Raila will emerge tops and face each other in run off.Kalonzo will form alliance with PK for run off,Ruto and Mudavadi will back Raila,Weta will go with PK.in short it witll be 2007 part two where Ruto,mudavadi were with Raila and Kalonzo,Weta with Kibaki.The more things chamge the more they remain the same.Take this to equity bank