Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: GeeMail on May 09, 2018, 08:17:01 PM
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Kalonzo has smelled the coffee and will remain on the right side of history. His two NASA brothers Weta and Mudavadi have early opposed the proposed changes to the constitution mainly because Raila is behind them. On this, they are easy pickings for Ruto on his escape from State House :s_bye2: They will run away together opposing the constitution and Raila throwing away the baby with the bathwater. We said they should have joined Miguna Miguna at the airport long before Raila appeared there. Now they are stuck in a rut(o) and only Ruto will pull them out.
https://citizentv.co.ke/news/kalonzo-supports-proposals-to-amend-constitution-199153/
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If Ouru and Raila were to start touring the country together campaigning for the referendum then Weta, Mdvd and Ruto will be in hot shiet. There hope is that Ouru stays neutral. There is no way Mt. Kenya MP's will go against ouru publicly otherwise their opponents will take advantage and oust them.
Kalonzo has smelled the coffee and will remain on the right side of history. His two NASA brothers Weta and Mudavadi have early opposed the proposed changes to the constitution mainly because Raila is behind them. On this, they are easy pickings for Ruto on his escape from State House :s_bye2: They will run away together opposing the constitution and Raila throwing away the baby with the bathwater. We said they should have joined Miguna Miguna at the airport long before Raila appeared there. Now they are stuck in a rut(o) and only Ruto will pull them out.
https://citizentv.co.ke/news/kalonzo-supports-proposals-to-amend-constitution-199153/
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It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.
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It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.
Mudavadi has basically established a track record of dependence. If he plays his cards right he can make a decent side-kick. Maybe he winds up becoming first governor of a putative Western super-region :-\ . If GEMA, Luos and Luhyas want constitutional change, then it will happen.
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If that is true then that's a smart move for MDVD. Weta can suck up to Ruto but MDVD has been a Deputy president and will look awkward playing manamba to newbee like Ruto. MDVD needs to stick with Raila and may end up Deputy prime minister or Governor. Ruto still looks out of place outside Kalenjin when without Ouru. He is not comfortable in the national stage by himself and seems to need to be surrounded by well paid tumbocrats singing his praises and assuring him that he will be president. He needs to relax some, soften his ubiquitous attack-dog image a little bit, joke some (a few kitendawili and soccer stories may help) but more importantly smile some more. Right now he looks like Hitler Junior ready to gas his opponents even before he becames president-he is a scary dude. Gidi looked like the grown-up at that funeral even after Ruto let his dogs loose on him all day long.
It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.
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That would be the 3rd or 4th time he'd be doing that. MaDVD instead should seize the opportunity of Raila 'betrayal' and take Luhya vote. If they combine with Wetangula - then Bukusu-Maragoli would easily rope other Luhyas. If they can hold onto that large const - then they can leverage for something - otherwise making a deal with Raila or Ruto or Uhuru when you haven't consolidated your base is political stupidity 101.
As regard WSR - ohoo boy - the man has it all locked up - Kalenjin the 99% - KAMATUSA - locked - SOMALIS+Boranas+Northern locked - He is playing in COAST all the way to Taveta - He has made serious headway in Bukusu+Wanga+Iteso in western. He will just struggle in Gusii only but not for long if Matiangi become the new center of power in Gusiiland like he will!
When Ruto attempted his first national push - in 2010 - he managed to get 33% - now imagine locking all those KANU era tribes - that won moi election twice and kept him power for such long.
Basically going into 2022 - GEMA is top up :) And that is how you become PORK. Ruto may well end up with 40% of the vote without GEMA. So he'll just need 15% kind of guy to win it - a Kamba or MaDVD. Of course GEMA will keep their 50% share...and Ruto will win with 60% plus....that is how MOAS is starting to look like. Raila will come second with about 20%. MADVD and Kalonzo will share the 10%.
That is why there is frantic stampede to amend the constitution.
If that is true then that's a smart move for MDVD. Weta can suck up to Ruto but MDVD has been a Deputy president and will look awkward playing manamba to newbee like Ruto. MDVD needs to stick with Raila and may end up Deputy prime minister or Governor. Ruto still looks out of place outside Kalenjin when without Ouru. He is not comfortable in the national stage by himself and seems to need to be surrounded by well paid tumbocrats singing his praises and assuring him that he will be president. He needs to relax some, soften his ubiquitous attack-dog image a little bit, joke some (a few kitendawili and soccer stories may help) but more importantly smile some more. Right now he looks like Hitler Junior ready to gas his opponents even before he becames president-he is a scary dude. Gidi looked like the grown-up at that funeral even after Ruto let his dogs loose on him all day long.
It is reported that Mudavadi has been meeting Raila quietly. Logical thing to do since even in NASA the proposed positions they were to occupy were not in the constitution. I wonder what Weta will say next.
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You clearly don't understand politics. All small tribes will gang up to oppose those regions. It politics 101. In fact the quickest way to kill Raila's referendum is to propose those 14 regions in the constitution. No way 47 tribes who now have a direct say in devolution - will allow the big 5-7 tribes to dominate them! Now way even sub-tribe within those big tribes will accept to be dominated.
Somethings are just BLACK n WHite. Engage your thinking caps :)
Diminishing in any way those 47 counties will take so much force - It aint ever happening. This is not some concept or idea...tribes or sub-tribes have tasted money+power and they aint letting someone in some region stand in their way to Nairobi.
Maybe he winds up becoming first governor of a putative Western super-region :-\ . If GEMA, Luos and Luhyas want constitutional change, then it will happen.
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This is more like it: we need a PORK who is not nusu mkate to implement his 5- 10yrs Marshall Plan. Raila's aim is to scuttle these numbers by claiming Ruto opposes their inclusion in GoK and fair chance at power.
That would be the 3rd or 4th time he'd be doing that. MaDVD instead should seize the opportunity of Raila 'betrayal' and take Luhya vote. If they combine with Wetangula - then Bukusu-Maragoli would easily rope other Luhyas. If they can hold onto that large const - then they can leverage for something - otherwise making a deal with Raila or Ruto or Uhuru when you haven't consolidated your base is political stupidity 101.
As regard WSR - ohoo boy - the man has it all locked up - Kalenjin the 99% - KAMATUSA - locked - SOMALIS+Boranas+Northern locked - He is playing in COAST all the way to Taveta - He has made serious headway in Bukusu+Wanga+Iteso in western. He will just struggle in Gusii only but not for long if Matiangi become the new center of power in Gusiiland like he will!
When Ruto attempted his first national push - in 2010 - he managed to get 33% - now imagine locking all those KANU era tribes - that won moi election twice and kept him power for such long.
Basically going into 2022 - GEMA is top up :) And that is how you become PORK. Ruto may well end up with 40% of the vote without GEMA. So he'll just need 15% kind of guy to win it - a Kamba or MaDVD. Of course GEMA will keep their 50% share...and Ruto will win with 60% plus....that is how MOAS is starting to look like. Raila will come second with about 20%. MADVD and Kalonzo will share the 10%.
That is why there is frantic stampede to amend the constitution.
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You clearly don't understand politics. All small tribes will gang up to oppose those regions. It politics 101. In fact the quickest way to kill Raila's referendum is to propose those 14 regions in the constitution. No way 47 tribes who now have a direct say in devolution - will allow the big 5-7 tribes to dominate them! Now way even sub-tribe within those big tribes will accept to be dominated.
Somethings are just BLACK n WHite. Engage your thinking caps :)
Diminishing in any way those 47 counties will take so much force - It aint ever happening. This is not some concept or idea...tribes or sub-tribes have tasted money+power and they aint letting someone in some region stand in their way to Nairobi.
Maybe he winds up becoming first governor of a putative Western super-region :-\ . If GEMA, Luos and Luhyas want constitutional change, then it will happen.
We don't know what the actual plan is. You are just as clueless as the hustler right now. Actually more clueless. kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants. Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.
That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario. There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way. That's not to say they will turn out that way. The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.
We are all engaged in guesswork at this point. Some of us just happen to not realize it.
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That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.
Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.
We don't know what the actual plan is. You are just as clueless as the hustler right now. Actually more clueless. kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants. Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.
That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario. There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way. That's not to say they will turn out that way. The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.
We are all engaged in guesswork at this point. Some of us just happen to not realize it.
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That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.
Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.
We don't know what the actual plan is. You are just as clueless as the hustler right now. Actually more clueless. kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants. Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.
That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario. There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way. That's not to say they will turn out that way. The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.
We are all engaged in guesswork at this point. Some of us just happen to not realize it.
Off the top of my head ...
You predicted a Raila loss in August elections. Didn't happen.
MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC :D. You have never grasped that.
Raila is kaput. And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.
What other punditry did I miss?
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Actually, the possibility that Ruto will manipulate or somehow mobilize small tribes into opposing constitutional amendments is real. What are the numbers anyway? What is also real is that having shown his trump card so early, some carrots will be dangled for the small tribes also (devolution style, like Turkana hiving off some oil revenue). mark you, there is rumored to be good amounts of oil in Luoland too, so that may also be a game changer. Again, if all else fails, secession is always at the back of the mind. In fact, the spat between Duale and Kipkorir about Somali numbers which Pundit also dances around here with may be a large factor as well. Somalis may just demand their own things which may not necessarily gel with Ruto's plans.
Something else that keeps cropping up is the alleged invincibility of the RV man. Pundit harps it here all day how Ruto this, Ruto that all bagged up. Who has forgotten the vifalangalanga elections where losers were made victors and those with long hands in IEBC got relatives elected on the byte? Ruto has never won an election as a leader (not in 2013 and most of all not even 2017). In fact, if it wasn't for the vifalangalanga one might say he performed worse in 2017, so much so that computers had to be roped in with Cambridge Analytica to prop up the dying brand. Ruto never led the NO faction against the constitution in 2010 either. He just happened to be among the many.
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The regional proposal is a slew to make it look like something beyond PM, so the Handshake is perceived as posterity. The plan is to "concede" the regions as part of the negotiations.
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That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.
Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.
We don't know what the actual plan is. You are just as clueless as the hustler right now. Actually more clueless. kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants. Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.
That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario. There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way. That's not to say they will turn out that way. The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.
We are all engaged in guesswork at this point. Some of us just happen to not realize it.
Off the top of my head ...
You predicted a Raila loss in August elections. Didn't happen.
MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC :D. You have never grasped that.
Raila is kaput. And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.
What other punditry did I miss?
Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.
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That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.
Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.
We don't know what the actual plan is. You are just as clueless as the hustler right now. Actually more clueless. kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants. Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.
That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario. There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way. That's not to say they will turn out that way. The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.
We are all engaged in guesswork at this point. Some of us just happen to not realize it.
Off the top of my head ...
You predicted a Raila loss in August elections. Didn't happen.
MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC :D . You have never grasped that.
Raila is kaput. And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.
What other punditry did I miss?
Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.
Clinton won the popular vote. Yes, I thought she would win the electoral college too. And I was wrong. But I would lean the same way given a similar setup.
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That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.
Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.
We don't know what the actual plan is. You are just as clueless as the hustler right now. Actually more clueless. kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants. Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.
That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario. There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way. That's not to say they will turn out that way. The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.
We are all engaged in guesswork at this point. Some of us just happen to not realize it.
Off the top of my head ...
You predicted a Raila loss in August elections. Didn't happen.
MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC :D . You have never grasped that.
Raila is kaput. And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.
What other punditry did I miss?
Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.
Clinton won the popular vote. Yes, I thought she would win the electoral college too. And I was wrong. But I would lean the same way given a similar setup.
Ergo, you're a failed pundit.
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That because we don't know what future holds doesn't mean we can't dismiss some ideas as dead on arrival. The regions are dead on arrival. They died in 2010 and won't be resurrected. I know big tribes would love to a fall back plan if they fail to capture national leadership - but 42 tribes just want their counties...and even with tribes like Luos or luhya or gema...there is no way merus or embus will accept region to be dominated by another... so there are things we know for sure are DEAD ON ARRIVAL.
Of course you can check my record vis your record of punditry to understand why.
We don't know what the actual plan is. You are just as clueless as the hustler right now. Actually more clueless. kamwana has left his sidekick guessing what he wants. Filling in the gaps with fantasies convinces nobody except others susceptible to argument by repetition.
That aside, mine is just an observation of a what if scenario. There is no answer to a GEMA, Luo, Luhya coalition if things turn out that way. That's not to say they will turn out that way. The dynamics are changing too fast to put a finger on it.
We are all engaged in guesswork at this point. Some of us just happen to not realize it.
Off the top of my head ...
You predicted a Raila loss in August elections. Didn't happen.
MOASS only works with cooperation of IEBC :D . You have never grasped that.
Raila is kaput. And that is why we are having this discussion I guess.
What other punditry did I miss?
Trump vs Clinton - you lost. Wait, the Russians hacked the server.
Clinton won the popular vote. Yes, I thought she would win the electoral college too. And I was wrong. But I would lean the same way given a similar setup.
Ergo, you're a failed pundit.
True. If my understanding of probability is mistaken.
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It got nothing to do with probability but objectivity. You have to divorce yourself from worshipping Raila or Clinton or xyz and dispassionately analyze issues. I can tell you that I started MOAS way back in 2006 - and it's never been wrong - I predicted 2007 - Raila would win with I think 47-48% against Kibaki 42-44%- Kibaki rigged himself and we ended up with 44-45% or around - and PEV. Then as early as 2008 I predicted UhuRuto would win..and my MOAS for 2010 constitution was spot on 33% versus 67% (while everyone thought NOs would struggle to get 20%)..And 2013 MOAS was spot on - and while pollsters predicted a run off - I predicted UhuRuto would win in first round. The last year MOAS was spot on or near spot on right from PORK to MPS to Governors ---and you'd have to think I was part of the rigging when I predicted Uhuru would win with 52% against Raila 47% -- it ended up being 54% against 46%. I also predicted Uhuru would win the next one with 98% :) with Raila despite withdrawing beating Akuro Okot :). And when it came to Trump...I clearly could see the path to Trump victory...you refused to acknowledge that he was pandering to 70% of the population - the whites and would win in a clearly smart albeit crass strategy. I can tell you going into next election...Trump is very likely to win again.
When it come to Kenya politics..it all about tribes...so if you're going to propose an ammendment that make most tribes unhappy...just to please Raila that is DOA. I think regions are doa for rather obvious reason...they will diminish counties and nobody esp small tribes or sub-tribes want that...people want more counties. Executive PM is also DOA. Parliamentary system is also DOA - kenyans will never allow MPIGS to decide their fate.
What will pass is an executive PORK elected by universal suffrage and a weaken PM & it's deputies who would be nothing more than the majority leader of parliament. Raila can push for that....but anything else is waste of time+energy. Strategy wise...Ruto should oppose any amendment to constitution...a complete turn around btw 2010 and now...when Raila told us constitution was perfect and he was the father...and Ruto wanted some issues ironed out.
True. If my understanding of probability is mistaken.
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How can something be objective and yet it is also perfectly consistently aligned with your subjective political wishes. We can all claim perfect record of prediction if we only recite those that favor our political narrative. Politics to me is about changing the the current reality to what one believes is a better reality. For example, there were times when Kanu was the reality and it was very easy to make predictions based on that reality. It took years and that reality was changed and now we have a new reality which we can use to make the predictions which make predictions if you like the new reality. Well some of us are more interested in making a paradigm shift to a new reality and do not care about your MOAS or predictions of a reality that we want to change.
We all knew that the two referendums would pass and that the 2007 elections was stolen. The only “predictions” you can really brag about are 2013 and 2017 but we have a different explanation why your predictions came true-RIGGING. Yes, RIGGING WORKS. Just open the server and tell us who killed Msando and why and we will believe MOAS.
As for Trump, his “winning” is now the subject of an investigation. Even Trump thought he was going to lose. Hilary won the popular vote. Most political pundits much more familiar with US politics have told us why Trump won and therefore I do not buy your prophet Owuor crap about political prophesy. I am more interested in Trump losing the next elections than making predictions.
Political paradigms shifts very slowly and that’s why you think you think you are a political genius. When Kibaki made that mugumo tree analogy, he was doing so based on the reality of his time and it was the “truth”. However, this so called truth did not deter those who were agitating for change because they understood that reality already, did not like it and wanted to change it. That is exactly what we are doing. We do not like the current political reality and we are trying to change it and therefore your predictions of status quo lasting for 100 years is not important to us. We believe that the reality of Tyranny of numbers/Mia’s/ouruto has started to shift and soon, very soon, we will enter a new reality with and new tools of predictions.
In summary, you are in the business of maintaining the political quo while we are in political activism business. We believe we are making very good progress in ending this political reality that Ouruto started in 2013 I believe we will do so before 2022 or we will dilute it considerably.
It got nothing to do with probability but objectivity. You have to divorce yourself from worshipping Raila or Clinton or xyz and dispassionately analyze issues. I can tell you that I started MOAS way back in 2006 - and it's never been wrong - I predicted 2007 - Raila would win with I think 47-48% against Kibaki 42-44%- Kibaki rigged himself and we ended up with 44-45% or around - and PEV. Then as early as 2008 I predicted UhuRuto would win..and my MOAS for 2010 constitution was spot on 33% versus 67% (while everyone thought NOs would struggle to get 20%)..And 2013 MOAS was spot on - and while pollsters predicted a run off - I predicted UhuRuto would win in first round. The last year MOAS was spot on or near spot on right from PORK to MPS to Governors ---and you'd have to think I was part of the rigging when I predicted Uhuru would win with 52% against Raila 47% -- it ended up being 54% against 46%. I also predicted Uhuru would win the next one with 98% :) with Raila despite withdrawing beating Akuro Okot :). And when it came to Trump...I clearly could see the path to Trump victory...you refused to acknowledge that he was pandering to 70% of the population - the whites and would win in a clearly smart albeit crass strategy. I can tell you going into next election...Trump is very likely to win again.
When it come to Kenya politics..it all about tribes...so if you're going to propose an ammendment that make most tribes unhappy...just to please Raila that is DOA. I think regions are doa for rather obvious reason...they will diminish counties and nobody esp small tribes or sub-tribes want that...people want more counties. Executive PM is also DOA. Parliamentary system is also DOA - kenyans will never allow MPIGS to decide their fate.
What will pass is an executive PORK elected by universal suffrage and a weaken PM & it's deputies who would be nothing more than the majority leader of parliament. Raila can push for that....but anything else is waste of time+energy. Strategy wise...Ruto should oppose any amendment to constitution...a complete turn around btw 2010 and now...when Raila told us constitution was perfect and he was the father...and Ruto wanted some issues ironed out.
True. If my understanding of probability is mistaken.
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You're nearly coming along but you still like to complicate simple stuff - politics - dude is not rocket science. Paradigm shift or interests all will manifest publicly and reading it is so easy. It not like you got some underground movement that we won't pick it up until it's done. Yes things just don't happen but are made to happen. And therefore as we watch Raila or Ruto or Uhuru try to make things happen - there are those we can now and here dismiss as dead on arrival. Regional govs are so dead there is really no point talking about them. Executive PM elected by Mpigs or majority party is also very dead...obviously Uhuru and Raila can salivate about how to extend their stay in politics beyond 2022..but Ruto is the man to beat...and Duale will become the PM :)
How can something be objective and yet it is also perfectly aligned with your subjective political (subjective) wishes. We can all claim perfect record of prediction if we only recite those that favor our narrative. Politics to me is about changing the the current reality for a better reality. For example, there were times when Kanu was the reality and it was very easy to make predictions based on that reality. It took years and that reality was changed and now we have a new reality which you use to make the predictions which makes you think you are a genius. Well some of us are more interested in making a paradigm shift to a new reality that will make your predictions useless. We all knew the two referendums would pass and that the 2007 elections was stolen. The only “predictions” you can really brag about are 2013 and 2017 but we also know how they were “won” and knew that rigging works. As for Trump, his “winning” is now the subject of an investigation. Even Trump thought he was going to lose. Hilary won the popular vote. Most political pundits much more familiar with US politics have told us why Trump won and therefore I do not buy your prophet Owuor crap about political prophesy. Political paradigms shifts very slowly and that’s why you think you think you are a political genius. When Kibaki made that mugumo tree analogy, he was doing so based on the reality of his time and it was the “truth”. The reality of Tyranny of numbers/Mia’s/ouruto has started to shift and soon, very soon we will have a new reality with new tools of predictions.
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It simple, you are obsessed with short term predictions and I am into long term change. I can therefore predict that we will end the Ouruto/tyranny of numbers, Kalenjin/kikuyu run which started in 2013 and was supposed to last 100 years. It is not going to last as long as you earlier predicted. The rest is a yawn.
You're nearly coming along but you still like to complicate simple stuff - politics - dude is not rocket science. Paradigm shift or interests all will manifest publicly and reading it is so easy. It not like you got some underground movement that we won't pick it up until it's done. Yes things just don't happen but are made to happen. And therefore as we watch Raila or Ruto or Uhuru try to make things happen - there are those we can now and here dismiss as dead on arrival. Regional govs are so dead there is really no point talking about them. Executive PM elected by Mpigs or majority party is also very dead...obviously Uhuru and Raila can salivate about how to extend their stay in politics beyond 2022..but Ruto is the man to beat...and Duale will become the PM :)
How can something be objective and yet it is also perfectly aligned with your subjective political (subjective) wishes. We can all claim perfect record of prediction if we only recite those that favor our narrative. Politics to me is about changing the the current reality for a better reality. For example, there were times when Kanu was the reality and it was very easy to make predictions based on that reality. It took years and that reality was changed and now we have a new reality which you use to make the predictions which makes you think you are a genius. Well some of us are more interested in making a paradigm shift to a new reality that will make your predictions useless. We all knew the two referendums would pass and that the 2007 elections was stolen. The only “predictions” you can really brag about are 2013 and 2017 but we also know how they were “won” and knew that rigging works. As for Trump, his “winning” is now the subject of an investigation. Even Trump thought he was going to lose. Hilary won the popular vote. Most political pundits much more familiar with US politics have told us why Trump won and therefore I do not buy your prophet Owuor crap about political prophesy. Political paradigms shifts very slowly and that’s why you think you think you are a political genius. When Kibaki made that mugumo tree analogy, he was doing so based on the reality of his time and it was the “truth”. The reality of Tyranny of numbers/Mia’s/ouruto has started to shift and soon, very soon we will have a new reality with new tools of predictions.
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Well 100yrs is a bit of a stretch - but who knows - it's already heading to 60yrs now.
It simple, you are obsessed with short term predictions and I am into long term change. I can therefore predict that we will end the Ouruto/tyranny of numbers, Kalenjin/kikuyu run which started in 2013 and was supposed to last 100 years. It is not going to last as long as you earlier predicted. The rest is a yawn.
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I guess you are now trying to claim that you predicted the last 60 years. That entire era saw many paradigm shifts and cannot be considered as one. Uhuru, Ruto and Raila have been in the opposition and in government several times during that time. Please confine your expertise to the period between 2013 to August 2017 when your smokes and mirrors act was unmasked. The whole rigging machinery and Kalenjin Gema alliance cannot work without Ouru. Gema is not going to vote lock step for Ruto without Ouru at the top of the ticket. We predicted that a long time ago and that prediction has not been proven wrong yet. You can take that prediction to the Bank.
It simple, you are obsessed with short term predictions and I am into long term change. I can therefore predict that we will end the Ouruto/tyranny of numbers, Kalenjin/kikuyu run which started in 2013 and was supposed to last 100 years. It is not going to last as long as you earlier predicted. The rest is a yawn.
You're nearly coming along but you still like to complicate simple stuff - politics - dude is not rocket science. Paradigm shift or interests all will manifest publicly and reading it is so easy. It not like you got some underground movement that we won't pick it up until it's done. Yes things just don't happen but are made to happen. And therefore as we watch Raila or Ruto or Uhuru try to make things happen - there are those we can now and here dismiss as dead on arrival. Regional govs are so dead there is really no point talking about them. Executive PM elected by Mpigs or majority party is also very dead...obviously Uhuru and Raila can salivate about how to extend their stay in politics beyond 2022..but Ruto is the man to beat...and Duale will become the PM :)
How can something be objective and yet it is also perfectly aligned with your subjective political (subjective) wishes. We can all claim perfect record of prediction if we only recite those that favor our narrative. Politics to me is about changing the the current reality for a better reality. For example, there were times when Kanu was the reality and it was very easy to make predictions based on that reality. It took years and that reality was changed and now we have a new reality which you use to make the predictions which makes you think you are a genius. Well some of us are more interested in making a paradigm shift to a new reality that will make your predictions useless. We all knew the two referendums would pass and that the 2007 elections was stolen. The only “predictions” you can really brag about are 2013 and 2017 but we also know how they were “won” and knew that rigging works. As for Trump, his “winning” is now the subject of an investigation. Even Trump thought he was going to lose. Hilary won the popular vote. Most political pundits much more familiar with US politics have told us why Trump won and therefore I do not buy your prophet Owuor crap about political prophesy. Political paradigms shifts very slowly and that’s why you think you think you are a political genius. When Kibaki made that mugumo tree analogy, he was doing so based on the reality of his time and it was the “truth”. The reality of Tyranny of numbers/Mia’s/ouruto has started to shift and soon, very soon we will have a new reality with new tools of predictions.
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Now Uhuru is yours and is ready to endorse Ida. I think it's bit of a stretch to imagine UhuRuto can rule for 100yrs. I never thought that possible. What is very likely is Ruto will hand over to another GEMA in 2022...because where I sit...DPORK in 2022 will be GEMA.
I guess you are now trying to claim that you predicted the last 60 years. That entire era saw many paradigm shifts and cannot be considered as one. Uhuru, Ruto and Raila have been in the opposition and in government several times during that time. Please confine your expertise to the period between 2013 to August 2017 when your smokes and mirrors act was unmasked. The whole rigging machinery and Kalenjin Gema alliance cannot work without Ouru. Gema is not going to vote lock step for Ruto without Ouru at the top of the ticket. We predicted that a long time ago and that prediction has not been proven wrong yet. You can take that prediction to the Bank.
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The idea has always been to break the Kikuyu/Kalenjin lock-step voting. It needed both Ouru and Ruto to work, especially Ouru because it is much harder to hold Gema together than it is to hold Kale's together. Even without the handshake, it was going to be hard to find a replacement for Ouru that can hold Gema together and even harder when the replacement is to be a DP. You see, Kiuks have had three presidents now and will not be impressed with a DP. Even harder to find will be a DP that all GEMA will embrace. This is why the whole idea of power shifting from Kalenjin to Kikuyu and then from Kikuyu to Kalenjin was a pipe dream all along. This arrangement was only designed to benefit Ouru and pacify Kalenjin into thinking that they had the presidency locked. Now with the hand shake its even harder. Some GEMA will stick with Ruto-half at most, but a huge chunk will either have their own candidate or split their vote. That is the opening that some serious voter may need. The opposition may even endorse a strong GEMA candidate to stop Ruto like Kibaki was used to stop Uhuru in 2002 if it becomes necessary.
Now Uhuru is yours and is ready to endorse Ida. I think it's bit of a stretch to imagine UhuRuto can rule for 100yrs. I never thought that possible. What is very likely is Ruto will hand over to another GEMA in 2022...because where I sit...DPORK in 2022 will be GEMA.
I guess you are now trying to claim that you predicted the last 60 years. That entire era saw many paradigm shifts and cannot be considered as one. Uhuru, Ruto and Raila have been in the opposition and in government several times during that time. Please confine your expertise to the period between 2013 to August 2017 when your smokes and mirrors act was unmasked. The whole rigging machinery and Kalenjin Gema alliance cannot work without Ouru. Gema is not going to vote lock step for Ruto without Ouru at the top of the ticket. We predicted that a long time ago and that prediction has not been proven wrong yet. You can take that prediction to the Bank.
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Ruto has a huge following and half GEMA is more than necessary for him to nick it. Raila must work on two fronts to stop Ruto
-Hive off GEMA - seems to be afoot
-Use Ruto's opposition to "inclusion" to disgruntle smaller tribes against him
Ruto, with the mammoth Jubilee and the bureacracy staffed with his cronies, has the stars lined up. His worst nightmare is a divisive referendum which is unfolding as he watches. He did this to Raila 08-13 and is being served his own concoction.
Politicians are strange. Ruto interfered with GEMA primaries to lock out upstarts kina PK and Munya and is now unhappy the same is applied to him. He is faithless but demands the opposite of everyone.
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Relax. The plan is still very much on.Ruto win PORK and GEMA pick DPORK. If they don't want it - they can go for Raila :)
The idea has always been to break the Kikuyu/Kalenjin lock-step voting. It needed both Ouru and Ruto to work, especially Ouru because it is much harder to hold Gema together than it is to hold Kale's together. Even without the handshake, it was going to be hard to find a replacement for Ouru that can hold Gema together and even harder when the replacement is to be a DP. You see, Kiuks have had three presidents now and will not be impressed with a DP. Even harder to find will be a DP that all GEMA will embrace. This is why the whole idea of power shifting from Kalenjin to Kikuyu and then from Kikuyu to Kalenjin was a pipe dream all along. This arrangement was only designed to benefit Ouru and pacify Kalenjin into thinking that they had the presidency locked. Now with the hand shake its even harder. Some GEMA will stick with Ruto-half at most, but a huge chunk will either have their own candidate or split their vote. That is the opening that some serious voter may need. The opposition may even endorse a strong GEMA candidate to stop Ruto like Kibaki was used to stop Uhuru in 2002 if it becomes necessary.
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The path to a referendum is long one - Raila tried with Okoa - and it didn't work. Uhuru is not ready for a referendum.
Ruto has a huge following and half GEMA is more than necessary for him to nick it. Raila must work on two fronts to stop Ruto
-Hive off GEMA - seems to be afoot
-Use Ruto's opposition to "inclusion" to disgruntle smaller tribes against him
Ruto, with the mammoth Jubilee and the bureacracy staffed with his cronies, has the stars lined up. His worst nightmare is a divisive referendum which is unfolding as he watches. He did this to Raila 08-13 and is being served his own concoction.
Politicians are strange. Ruto interfered with GEMA primaries to lock out upstarts kina PK and Munya and is now unhappy the same is applied to him. He is faithless but demands the opposite of everyone.
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This is all Raila needs, not necessarily a real one, to fuel Project Stop Ruto.
The path to a referendum is long one - Raila tried with Okoa - and it didn't work. Uhuru is not ready for a referendum.
Ruto has a huge following and half GEMA is more than necessary for him to nick it. Raila must work on two fronts to stop Ruto
-Hive off GEMA - seems to be afoot
-Use Ruto's opposition to "inclusion" to disgruntle smaller tribes against him
Ruto, with the mammoth Jubilee and the bureacracy staffed with his cronies, has the stars lined up. His worst nightmare is a divisive referendum which is unfolding as he watches. He did this to Raila 08-13 and is being served his own concoction.
Politicians are strange. Ruto interfered with GEMA primaries to lock out upstarts kina PK and Munya and is now unhappy the same is applied to him. He is faithless but demands the opposite of everyone.
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Ruto just need to go hardline & public - and Uhuru will be scared to move ahead with any mischief. Ruto just has to drawn the line on the sand. And that will make Uhuru realize he'd be crossing the rubicon.Uhuru has no stomach for a fight - so he'll tell Raila to get busy with other agendas.
I think so far Ruto has done it successfully - making sure the hand-shake is just that - not anchored in law or in gov.
This is all Raila needs, not necessarily a real one, to fuel Project Stop Ruto.
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You should take your own advise about being a cold blooded political pundit. You are too tied emotionally to Ruto to make reasonable observation. For example, you say talk about WSR being tough on Ouru. WSR needs Ouru but I do not see how Ouru needs WSR. Therefore why should Ruto go rogue on Ouru publicly. That may just make Ouru mad and then he may not endorse WSR. Without Ouru's endorsement, WSR will not get even 50% of GEMA vote. Even if Ouru endorses WSR, he will not get the same amount of GEMA as ouru got.
Ruto just need to go hardline & public - and Uhuru will be scared to move ahead with any mischief. Ruto just has to drawn the line on the sand. And that will make Uhuru realize he'd be crossing the rubicon.Uhuru has no stomach for a fight - so he'll tell Raila to get busy with other agendas.
I think so far Ruto has done it successfully - making sure the hand-shake is just that - not anchored in law or in gov.
This is all Raila needs, not necessarily a real one, to fuel Project Stop Ruto.
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That probably explain why Raila and rest have not managed to beat GEMA. You don't face gema with weakness and meekness and expect to win.Now Raila is out there cleaning and dinning with Mungiki :D :D :D. Ohoo so Ruto plays nice and Uhuru doesn't get mad. Nope - you have to demonstrate to Uhuru that he doesn't stick to the deal - and it's self-assured destruction. I think Sonko has the playbook for that...and he won Nairobi despite GEMA controlling more than half of Jubilee. Ruto has to make sure Raila get NO space..no peace..no inch..and has to make Uhuru not get too nice :) or carried away with his peace agenda. That I think he has done successfully so far. Raila has been left to clean Mungiki hands and veteran harambee stars players. He speaks about 2022 - and Jubilee go hammers on him - he had to retract :). That is how to play the game. Ruto job is basically to neutralize and sabotage Raila ..because Raila remain his main opponent.
Ruto has to drawn the sand early so those thinking of PM or extending Uhuru term knows they got a big messy fight coming if they insist - and so they'll get discouraged early enough.
You should take your own advise about being a cold blooded political pundit. You are too tied emotionally to Ruto to make reasonable observation. For example, you say talk about WSR being tough on Ouru. WSR needs Ouru but I do not see how Ouru needs WSR. Therefore why should Ruto go rogue on Ouru publicly. That may just make Ouru mad and then he may not endorse WSR. Without Ouru's endorsement, WSR will not get even 50% of GEMA vote. Even if Ouru endorses WSR, he will not get the same amount of GEMA as ouru got.
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Is there a Uhuru monument in Kisumu yet?
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The agenda here is to disrupt the status quo. Its not about love or monuments.
Is there a Uhuru monument in Kisumu yet?
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Pundit's suggested it severally, just wondering if something's cropped up somewhere. I misread him perhaps.
The agenda here is to disrupt the status quo. Its not about love or monuments.
Is there a Uhuru monument in Kisumu yet?
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Ruto has not beaten GEMA or anybody yet. Its one think to be a king maker and another to be king. A lot will happen between now and 2022 so spare us the worrior bravado and tell Ruto to stop screaming at shadows. He is not scaring anybody but just making himself look scared of his own shadow.
That probably explain why Raila and rest have not managed to beat GEMA. You don't face gema with weakness and meekness and expect to win.Now Raila is out there cleaning and dinning with Mungiki :D :D :D. Ohoo so Ruto plays nice and Uhuru doesn't get mad. Nope - you have to demonstrate to Uhuru that he doesn't stick to the deal - and it's self-assured destruction. I think Sonko has the playbook for that...and he won Nairobi despite GEMA controlling more than half of Jubilee. Ruto has to make sure Raila get NO space..no peace..no inch..and has to make Uhuru not get too nice :) or carried away with his peace agenda. That I think he has done successfully so far. Raila has been left to clean Mungiki hands and veteran harambee stars players. He speaks about 2022 - and Jubilee go hammers on him - he had to retract :). That is how to play the game. Ruto job is basically to neutralize and sabotage Raila ..because Raila remain his main opponent.
Ruto has to drawn the sand early so those thinking of PM or extending Uhuru term knows they got a big messy fight coming if they insist - and so they'll get discouraged early enough.
You should take your own advise about being a cold blooded political pundit. You are too tied emotionally to Ruto to make reasonable observation. For example, you say talk about WSR being tough on Ouru. WSR needs Ouru but I do not see how Ouru needs WSR. Therefore why should Ruto go rogue on Ouru publicly. That may just make Ouru mad and then he may not endorse WSR. Without Ouru's endorsement, WSR will not get even 50% of GEMA vote. Even if Ouru endorses WSR, he will not get the same amount of GEMA as ouru got.
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Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html
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Meaning he is a real threat to the status quo and the dynasties.
Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html
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Meaning he is a real threat to the status quo and the dynasties.
Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html
Are Weta and Mudavadi also part of the dynasties according to your algorithm?
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Meaning he is a real threat to the status quo and the dynasties.
Ruto increasingly isolated. Contrary to what I had noticed, the reason for this thread, looks like Weta and Mudavadi are rubbing salt into Ruto's wounds. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/William-Ruto-isolated-as-Amani--Ford-Kenya-join-reform-push-/1064-4559912-85v8pfz/index.html
Are Weta and Mudavadi also part of the dynasties according to your algorithm?
Mdvd is part of the dynasties of course. He's also Raila's sidekick.