Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on March 30, 2018, 12:55:19 PM
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If we can sustain this for another 10yrs - then vision 2030 is very probable - we could be in South Africa or Mexico or Brazil level by 2030 - a middle class economy with GDP per capita of 5k plus. By 2050 we would be a developed country with GDP of more than 10-15Kusd per annum like China now.
https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN1GZ0TK-OZATP
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Planet Ruto.
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Alternative facts. Majority of Kenyans are dirt poor
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We are yet to hit the critical mass of ingredients needed for rapid growth and sustaibable development. At least 10% for 3 decades. When the average GDP rate is less than population growth I don't see how poverty can reduce.
These are dodgy stats Bwana Pundit.
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You don't need to hit 10% - at 6% you can do it but at longer pace. If you want to eliminate poverty in a generation like China then you have to hit 10%. I think it's given that by 2030 - we will be somewhere around where South Africa is now - I am thinking 5K per capita (PPP) - and later in 2010 - around 10k per capita (PPP).We are seeing population growth rate reduces to 2-3% for most of the regions - and as you can see for first time - those age 0-5 yrs are now fewer than those aged 5-10yrs (or the next cohort).
There is no denying that poverty has reduced by 10% in this decade - and there is evidence of development everywhere you look.
We are yet to hit the critical mass of ingredients needed for rapid growth and sustaibable development. At least 10% for 3 decades. When the average GDP rate is less than population growth I don't see how poverty can reduce.
These are dodgy stats Bwana Pundit.
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He and RV Pundit live in another world.
:D :D :D :D :D
Planet Ruto.
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Facts are stubborn. If you go back 15yrs from now - Kenya GDP was about 12B usd..and pop was about 30m. Now GDP is nearly 7 times at nearly 80B USD and pop is about 45-50m. Now if you assume we will grow at the same rate - which seem more than certain - then in 2030 our GDP will be 7 times now - about 550B USD - our population will be about 80M. That should place us above where South Africa now is ---and just in the cusp of becoming a developed country. If you project the same growth to 2050 - then there is no doubt that Kenya will be a developed country. The same is true for many countries in Africa.
Kenya like most African countries have turned the corner.
He and RV Pundit live in another world.
:D :D :D :D :D
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Pundit, never in the next 50 years will Kenya be near a developed country. You can play with your statistics as much as you want, but it will take more than three generations for Africa to get where developed countries are today.
Facts are stubborn. If you go back 15yrs from now - Kenya GDP was about 12B usd..and pop was about 30m. Now GDP is nearly 7 times at nearly 80B USD and pop is about 45-50m. Now if you assume we will grow at the same rate - which seem more than certain - then in 2030 our GDP will be 7 times now - about 550B USD - our population will be about 80M. That should place us above where South Africa now is ---and just in the cusp of becoming a developed country. If you project the same growth to 2050 - then there is no doubt that Kenya will be a developed country. The same is true for many countries in Africa.
Kenya like most African countries have turned the corner.
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Sorry but in this threads you're just heckling. Can you try string a sound argument why kenya will not be a developed country in 2050. I have given you mine - backed by facts - and reasonable projections. There is no doubt for me that Kenya and rest of Africa will mostly be developed world in 2050. And certainly will be proper middle class country in 2030 - the level that South Africa, Mexico or Brazil are in - although some of them are becoming developed.
As you speak Kenya is low-middle income country (1.5K us per capita) - the next threshold is 5K - then 10usd per capita (which is developed country).
You're the same guys who said China would NEVER become developed and China did it in less time than ever thought possible. China in 1980s was not dissimilar to kenya - with bicycle ridding peasant cultivating rice - and now they are developed/high-income country.
Pundit, never in the next 50 years will Kenya be near a developed country. You can play with your statistics as much as you want, but it will take more than three generations for Africa to get where developed countries are today.
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As to the same arguements here is what Jaindi Kisero has to say:
According to the recently published ‘Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey’ report by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the incidence of poverty has been trending downwards in the past 10 years.
Inequality within the Kenyan society is also reducing. And the unemployment rate dropped from 12.7 per cent to 7.4 per cent over the same period.
But where is the wealth these statisticians are a seeing and measuring in this country?
https://www.nation.co.ke/oped/opinion/Are-we-becoming-richer-than-we-thought--or-is--statistics-/440808-4370522-9vem61/index.html
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And Jaindi Kisero is now a nobel laurate in economics and is no longer the paid journalist who sell stories.
As to the same arguements here is what Jaindi Kisero has to say:
According to the recently published ‘Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey’ report by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the incidence of poverty has been trending downwards in the past 10 years.
Inequality within the Kenyan society is also reducing. And the unemployment rate dropped from 12.7 per cent to 7.4 per cent over the same period.
But where is the wealth these statisticians are a seeing and measuring in this country?
https://www.nation.co.ke/oped/opinion/Are-we-becoming-richer-than-we-thought--or-is--statistics-/440808-4370522-9vem61/index.html
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Just drive from NRB - NKR- Krcho - Ksm.
If you still think poverty has been decimated, I have a bridge to sell you.
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And who said poverty has been decimated? Obviously poverty has reduced by 10% the last 10yrs and those are solid facts.I am not sure if 10% poverty reduction is noticeable to the naked eye but definitely it noticeable emperical data.
Just drive from NRB - NKR- Krcho - Ksm.
If you still think poverty has been decimated, I have a bridge to sell you.