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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: vooke on October 18, 2017, 06:31:50 PM

Title: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: vooke on October 18, 2017, 06:31:50 PM
Ok, the first one was abandoning the race hoping to stop Elections. Turns out Mativo had other ideas. I still hear Babu advisors/apologists  ,very intelligent fools, like Otiende and Havi argue that Mativo can’t be applied retroactively so Babu is immune from it since he withdrew hours before Mativo. Mativo never made new laws so I don’t know how that pans out. I think the negroes are still in denial and are just saving face making moronic arguments.

The second one is disrupting elections. Before Babu withdrew this was just a fantasy but it has gained lethal significance. There are two ways of looking at it;
1.  Katiba holds that presidential elections are held in all constituencies. Disrupting elections in even one would ,to them, invalidate the elections as they was not held according to katiba

2. If #1 fails to convince SCOK, ensure Uhunye’s margin of victory is less than all the disrupted votes forcing repeat elections.

With Babu pulling out, it’s obvious #2 is stillborn because Uhunye margin will be higher but with IEBC refusal to remove him from the ballot you just never know.


Why is this gamble silly? It assumes failure to hold presidential election in each constituency automatically leads to invalidation.

(2) If two or more candidates for President are nominated, an election shall be held in each constituency.

Methinks failure to hold an election in a constituency would not lead to invalidation UNLESS it is demonstrated that;
1. IEBC fails to demonstrate any effort in doing so,and
2. There is no election in the constituency, and
3. Disenfranchised voters comprise a significant  proportion compared to what Uhunye garners

It’s obvious NASWA are keen to disrupt evidenced by their looking the other way. Will SCOK sympathize with lawlessness?
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: vooke on October 19, 2017, 10:29:36 AM
A subtle difference between the first and this gamble.
NASWA were totally convinced that withdrawal would stop the elections. They refused to campaign precisely for this reason.

Not so with disruption. Yes it's clear there will be disruption in at least one constituency but they are not relenting and are increasingly angry. Desperation gallore
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: RV Pundit on October 19, 2017, 10:50:07 AM
Only a compromised SCORK will allow this shenagians to continue. The first gamble back-fired after high court rulling. The next gamble is where they stop election from happening and then ran back to say voters were denied the chance to vote.

If we were to allow such a situation - then no election will ever happen - because all it will take is for one person to disrupt elections in one constitutuency - and make the whole election a big joke.

A subtle difference between the first and this gamble.
NASWA were totally convinced that withdrawal would stop the elections. They refused to campaign precisely for this reason.

Not so with disruption. Yes it's clear there will be disruption in at least one constituency but they are not relenting and are increasingly angry. Desperation gallore
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: Nefertiti on October 19, 2017, 10:52:42 AM
Boycotting is the proper thing to do.

Disruption - the violent kind - has legal landmines especially bans from public office.
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: RV Pundit on October 19, 2017, 11:00:12 AM
And IEBC need to start summoning anybody threatening or disruptiing elections. The police should also arrest and charge them with election offences.That mean most of them will be kicked out of office.
Boycotting is the proper thing to do.

Disruption - the violent kind - has legal landmines especially bans from public office.
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: Nefertiti on October 19, 2017, 11:38:01 AM
Yes indeed. Sabotaging elections is a crime. Even MPs and governors can lose office if convicted. GoK needs to get tougher on this hooliganism. This my-way-or-the-highway democracy just tells me the 'reforms' being sought are BS.

"Give us nusu mkate or else"

It comes down to leverage like you said earlier.

And IEBC need to start summoning anybody threatening or disruptiing elections. The police should also arrest and charge them with election offences.That mean most of them will be kicked out of office.
Boycotting is the proper thing to do.

Disruption - the violent kind - has legal landmines especially bans from public office.
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: Nefertiti on October 19, 2017, 11:56:46 AM
What I want to happen - Raila to retire and hand over to Joho.

What I see happening -
-High turnout in RVGema. Low turnout in swing. Supression in NASA base
-A few dead disrupters in usual hotspots. Many arrests
-Petition is thrown out
-UhuRuto swearing

PEV is roundly condemned by diplomats. Jubilee of course is now ready to discuss IEBC reforms. Nusu mkate is toast so there are no takers. Secession talk picks up.
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: RV Pundit on October 19, 2017, 12:19:50 PM
I think this will happen one
1) Uhuru need to ascent to the new law - to avoid Chebukati resigning late in the game.
2) IEBC 4 need to conduct elections on 26th
3) Police need to ensure those who want to vote can vote - those who want to disrupt are met with full force of law.
4) Jubilee supporters need to turn up in large numbers and give a huge mandate.
5) Uhuru need to focus on the Wakora 4 to make sure they don't annul his victory. Whatever means and methods he uses - it would be for national interest. This country cannot afford another circus of election being cancelled.

In the meantime police should be ready to arrest govenors including Raila if they disrupt election. The time for games is over. Raila should be locked up if need be- to domonstrate nobody is above the law

After Uhuru has been sworn in as PORK - everything goes back to normal

What I want to happen - Raila to retire and hand over to Joho.

What I see happening -
-High turnout in RVGema. Low turnout in swing. Supression in NASA base
-A few dead disrupters in usual hotspots. Many arrests
-Petition is thrown out
-UhuRuto swearing

PEV is roundly condemned by diplomats. Jubilee of course is now ready to discuss IEBC reforms. Nusu mkate is toast so there are no takers. Secession talk picks up.

Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: Nefertiti on October 19, 2017, 01:03:24 PM
This will take a while. I expect PEV to continue for a while and fizzle into a Luo affair. The Kamba and Bukusu don't seem keen on suicide.

These voodoo "reforms" have hit marginal utility and should not be entertained. NASA can continue secession talk - and see support outside Nyanza plummet.

After Uhuru has been sworn in as PORK - everything goes back to normal
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: RV Pundit on October 19, 2017, 04:36:32 PM
Unless supreme court give them another hail-mary-pass then this will fizzle out immediately. Luos are tired.
This will take a while. I expect PEV to continue for a while and fizzle into a Luo affair. The Kamba and Bukusu don't seem keen on suicide.

These voodoo "reforms" have hit marginal utility and should not be entertained. NASA can continue secession talk - and see support outside Nyanza plummet.
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on October 19, 2017, 04:52:33 PM
If baba wasn’t taking silly gambles, the jubilant would be sitting tight in his second term working diligently on NYS scandal 2.0 among others.
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: vooke on October 19, 2017, 05:30:35 PM
If baba wasn’t taking silly gambles, the jubilant would be sitting tight in his second term working diligently on NYS scandal 2.0 among others.
The only luck coming his way is bad luck and that’s not helpful
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: RV Pundit on October 19, 2017, 05:42:59 PM
:)
The only luck coming his way is bad luck and that’s not helpful
Title: Re: Another Silly Gamble by Babu
Post by: bryan275 on October 19, 2017, 06:00:56 PM
If baba wasn’t taking silly gambles, the jubilant would be sitting tight in his second term working diligently on NYS scandal 2.0 among others.

Quite.