Nipate

Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on September 17, 2017, 09:34:23 PM

Title: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 17, 2017, 09:34:23 PM
1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: bryan275 on September 17, 2017, 09:52:57 PM
Secession is also an option.  It's looking more viable by the day.  Nobody wants to be ruled by the murderous power hungry criminal scumbags.

Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kichwa on September 17, 2017, 10:10:02 PM
You told Ouru to steal the elections and assured him the SCOK will uphold the rigged elections.  Now Ouru is frustrated, his legacy is on the line and he is drinking like a fish.

Here is my take:

1) NASA's reform demands are met-we go to the elections-NASA wins.

1) NASA'S demands are NOT met.  There is no legitimate elections held  and the country plunges into a constitutional crisis until a credible election is held.


1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: vooke on September 17, 2017, 10:26:23 PM
1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor :lolz: :lolz:

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing.

But that was in a movie.

Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kadame7 on September 17, 2017, 11:06:58 PM
Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor :lolz: :lolz:

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing. [/b][/u][/size]

But that was in a movie.
What did he mean? Because it'll leave you disappointed?
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kichwa on September 17, 2017, 11:10:52 PM
The cackling of hyenas.

1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor :lolz: :lolz:

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing.

But that was in a movie.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: patel on September 18, 2017, 01:45:06 AM
The only desperate party in all these games is jubilee.  They are stuck in no man's land politically.  They never prepared or forecast elections being nullified.  Now JEBC has to be reformed to IEBC but jubilee despite having the so called numbers would have none of it. Election most likely will not happen till next year but the longer the stalemate continues the more the economy will continue to suffer.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: vooke on September 18, 2017, 07:34:42 AM
Stop insulting canines, beautiful animals. Get another metaphor :lolz: :lolz:

NASWA have another hidden card; the 288 petitions. They hope then in the next 180 days they will switch places with Jubilee in numerical strength in parliament.

Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption said something epic (though he was proven wrong); hope is a dangerous thing. [/b][/u][/size]

But that was in a movie.
What did he mean? Because it'll leave you disappointed?
Kadame I don't want to give you spoiler.
Red (Freeman) after several decades behind bars settled for the fact that he'd never see outside. He says he has seen newer inmates going mad after their hopes of freedom are slowly crushed by reality. So he is cautioning one such Dufrense against such lofty dreams.
Watch to find out why he was wrong. Best movie with very engaging dialogue
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 07:42:03 AM
With no known path to victory NASA best foot forward is 2008 Zim Tsavingirai move.Jubilee  should proceed with elections with or without NASA coz they Parliament and rest of Gok intact.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: vooke on September 18, 2017, 07:48:29 AM
With no known path to victory NASA best foot forward is 2008 Zim Tsavingirai move.Jubilee  should proceed with elections with or without NASA coz they Parliament and rest of Gok intact.
Stop rubbing it in
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 09:12:26 AM
Just to remind you that Uhuru did not win in 2013 and not the last election either. The idea of a bigger Computer Generated Victory margin is a joke. NASA is trying to ensure that every vote counts by demanding common sense adherence to the law.

Please explain why the minimum demands that NASA is demanding would disadvantage Uhuru Kenyatta? What is in the those demands that Jubilee finds likely to work against their fair interests? Is it because it would deny Chirchir (and his spanner boy) the chance to vote for 15M Kenyans?

Jubilee will lose a fair election without any question and you know it. Kenyans are tired of the thieves.

What is irking you - for REAL - is that;

1. you see the sensible demands by NASA, the EU and ALL the Western Countries (who I nearly thought were your pals) cannot possibly be met by Jubilee. It is the same as taking the liver out of a human being and expecting him to live!
2 You fear that in the end a Transitional Government (GONU) is inevitable and Ruto - like Kalonzo in 2008 NARA - would be a sure casualty! In short you are William Ruto's voice crying out

Incidentally why did Ruto jump the gun and appoint Balala to run the campaign when Uhuru wanted someone else? Is he no longer being listened to? Like I told you, I see one option for Ruto: Tacitly support NASA to eliminate Uhuru Presidency. The prize for him: saving his own life.
1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 09:39:25 AM
Elections are not won on technicalities. They are won by getting most votes. Jubilee has most votes - GEMA alone pack 6M punch - that reliably turn out to vote. Add Kalenjin 2.5m plus votes - and before you start - you've already lost. I said this in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. That remain the elephant in the house. Before 8.8 - you went crazy with crazy court cases and finally declared elections were "unriggable" after Isaac team left and all sort of reforms via parliament & court case were enacted - and yet you lost by even bigger margin than 2013.

Jubilee I don't have any problem with any sensible reforms. Obviously there is time - we only have less less than 30 days to lapse of 60 days. We've have had 30yrs of electoral reforms since 92 election....and so to suddenly get 100 list of irreducible demands clearly point at party not ready for elections.

NASA has no leverage - Jubilee enjoy near super-majority in parliament - governors & their county gok are in office and don't want NASA shenagians -  the violence/demo card is laughable (will only fly in Kondele, Kibera and Mathare), the international community are not biting it (due to the fact that NASA cannot get violence outside Kondele, Kibera and Mathare) and so we are left with one possibility - Uhuru Kenyatta complete his 5 terms.

And William Ruto start his own in 2022.


Just to remind you that Uhuru did not win in 2013 and not the last election either. The idea of a bigger Computer Generated Victory margin is a joke. NASA is trying to ensure that every vote counts by demanding common sense adherence to the law.

Please explain why the minimum demands that NASA is demanding would disadvantage Uhuru Kenyatta? What is in the those demands that Jubilee finds likely to work against their fair interests? Is it because it would deny Chirchir (and his spanner boy) the chance to vote for 15M Kenyans?

Jubilee will lose a fair election without any question and you know it. Kenyans are tired of the thieves.

What is irking you - for REAL - is that;

1. you see the sensible demands by NASA, the EU and ALL the Western Countries (who I nearly thought were your pals) cannot possibly be met by Jubilee. It is the same as taking the liver out of a human being and expecting him to live!
2 You fear that in the end a Transitional Government (GONU) is inevitable and Ruto - like Kalonzo in 2008 NARA - would be a sure casualty! In short you are William Ruto's voice crying out

Incidentally why did Ruto jump the gun and appoint Balala to run the campaign when Uhuru wanted someone else? Is he no longer being listened to? Like I told you, I see one option for Ruto: Tacitly support NASA to eliminate Uhuru Presidency. The prize for him: saving his own life.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 10:15:26 AM
Totally agree with Tuju: Raila is afraid of another dog-beating.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Jubilee-and-Nasa-fight-over-repeat-elections/1056-4100482-gdn3ayz/index.html
 “Nasa knows they cannot win this election. That is why they have hatched a plot against the IEBC. Their tactics are diversionary to avoid a shame of losing an election twice.”
“Desperate situations call for desperate measures that is why Nasa is busy accusing everybody instead of planning for the coming elections,” he said.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: bryan275 on September 18, 2017, 10:29:27 AM
Totally agree with Tuju: Raila is afraid of another dog-beating.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Jubilee-and-Nasa-fight-over-repeat-elections/1056-4100482-gdn3ayz/index.html
 “Nasa knows they cannot win this election. That is why they have hatched a plot against the IEBC. Their tactics are diversionary to avoid a shame of losing an election twice.”
“Desperate situations call for desperate measures that is why Nasa is busy accusing everybody instead of planning for the coming elections,” he said.


Hii ni porojo tu ya Jubilee.  These are are true tribal voter numbers:

Jubilee:

Gema- 2.8m

Kalenjin - 2.3

Other GEMA affiliates - 1m

Total - 6.1

NASA

Coast - 1.8m
Luhya - 2.6m
Luo - 2m
Kisii - 1m
Kamba - 2.2m

Total - 9.6m

Battleground

Northeast - somali vote - 1.4m
Turkana, Maasai and other plains nilotes - 1m

So now even if the thieving bastards snag ALL of the battleground votes, they'd still lose again.

That is the very basic reality of things.



Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 10:34:06 AM
Nice fart. Central Prov alone where Kikuyus makes 97% of population except in Kiambu (8%) has 2.9M registered votes. Add Nairobi Kikuyus. Add Kikuyus in RV( Nakuru,Uasin Gishu, Laikipia,Kajiado,Tranzoia& Narok). I think you're inhaling something illegal.
   Gema+Kalenjin Registered Votes   
1   Kiambu   1173593
2   Nakuru   948668
3   Meru   712378
4   Murang’a   590775
5   Nyeri   460806
6   Kericho   379815
7   Kirinyaga   351162
8   Nandi   349340
9   Nyandaua   336322
10   Bomet   325606
11   Embu   315668
12   Laikipia   239497
13   Baringo   227918
14   TharakaNithi   216522
15   ElgeyoMarakwet   178989
16   WestPokot   178989
17   UasinGishu   451485
18   Nairobi   40%
19   Kajiado   30%
20   Narok   40%
21   TranNzoia   40%
      8750000 - let's ignore GEMA+Kalenjin in elsewhere like Lamu, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Isiolo, name it.

45% - of registered votes - who reliably turned out - at 10-20% above the national average - that pumps that another 2-3% to around 48%.

UhuRuto to win this just need 300,000 votes from rest of kabilas.

In short there is NO WAY in hell or heaven where UhuRuto loses any to Mr Odinga.

Jubilee:
Gema- 2.8m
Kalenjin - 2.3

Other GEMA affiliates - 1m

Total - 6.1

NASA

Coast - 1.8m
Luhya - 2.6m
Luo - 2m
Kisii - 1m
Kamba - 2.2m

Total - 9.6m

Battleground

Northeast - somali vote - 1.4m
Turkana, Maasai and other plains nilotes - 1m

So now even if the thieving bastards snag ALL of the battleground votes, they'd still lose again.

That is the very basic reality of things.




Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: bryan275 on September 18, 2017, 10:44:28 AM
Nice fart. Central Prov alone where Kikuyus makes 97% of population except in Kiambu (8%) has 2.9M registered votes. Add Nairobi Kikuyus. Add Kikuyus in RV( Nakuru,Uasin Gishu, Laikipia,Kajiado,Tranzoia& Narok). I think you're inhaling something illegal.
   Gema+Kalenjin Registered Votes   
1   Kiambu   1173593
2   Nakuru   948668
3   Meru   712378
4   Murang’a   590775
5   Nyeri   460806
6   Kericho   379815
7   Kirinyaga   351162
8   Nandi   349340
9   Nyandaua   336322
10   Bomet   325606
11   Embu   315668
12   Laikipia   239497
13   Baringo   227918
14   TharakaNithi   216522
15   ElgeyoMarakwet   178989
16   WestPokot   178989
17   UasinGishu   451485
18   Nairobi   40%
19   Kajiado   30%
20   Narok   40%
21   TranNzoia   40%
      8750000 - let's ignore GEMA+Kalenjin in elsewhere like Lamu, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Isiolo, name it.

45% - of registered votes - who reliably turned out - at 10-20% above the national average - that pumps that another 2-3% to around 48%.

UhuRuto to win this just need 300,000 votes from rest of kabilas.

In short there is NO WAY in hell or heaven where UhuRuto loses any to Mr Odinga.

Jubilee:
Gema- 2.8m
Kalenjin - 2.3

Other GEMA affiliates - 1m

Total - 6.1

NASA

Coast - 1.8m
Luhya - 2.6m
Luo - 2m
Kisii - 1m
Kamba - 2.2m

Total - 9.6m

Battleground

Northeast - somali vote - 1.4m
Turkana, Maasai and other plains nilotes - 1m

So now even if the thieving bastards snag ALL of the battleground votes, they'd still lose again.

That is the very basic reality of things.






We all know who's smoking the wrong type of weed.  There's no way there are 40% kikuyus in Trans Nzoia.  Even the combination of Kales and and Kikuyus does not make 40% of that population.

Taarifa ndio hio nanii... 6.1m votes, and that's what Jubilee maxed out at on 8th August.  This is the reason why they're crying nusu mkate, they want it.

Things are so bad that they meet their "hoades" of fans at State house.... What was the vote split in NBO?  Between Governors compared to the presidential ballot?

Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 10:46:56 AM
Are you really a bean counter? I won't want you doing my books. Transnzoia tribal maths is out there. Luhya 52%,Kalenjin 30%,Gikuyu 10% & others 8%.  Maths or figures are facts that you cannot argue with. You're just yelling like a fool when you clearly know that GEMA+Kalenjin is huge juggernaut that gonna crush Raila balls for third time..or is it the 10th time since 1982.

We all know who's smoking the wrong type of weed.  There's no way there are 40% kikuyus in Trans Nzoia.  Even the combination of Kales and and Kikuyus does not make 40% of that population.

Taarifa ndio hio nanii... 6.1m votes, and that's what Jubilee maxed out at on 8th August.  This is the reason why they're crying nusu mkate, they want it.

Things are so bad that they meet their "hoades" of fans at State house.... What was the vote split in NBO?  Between Governors compared to the presidential ballot?


Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: bryan275 on September 18, 2017, 12:06:44 PM
Are you really a bean counter? I won't want you doing my books. Transnzoia tribal maths is out there. Luhya 52%,Kalenjin 30%,Gikuyu 10% & others 8%.  Maths or figures are facts that you cannot argue with. You're just yelling like a fool when you clearly know that GEMA+Kalenjin is huge juggernaut that gonna crush Raila balls for third time..or is it the 10th time since 1982.

We all know who's smoking the wrong type of weed.  There's no way there are 40% kikuyus in Trans Nzoia.  Even the combination of Kales and and Kikuyus does not make 40% of that population.

Taarifa ndio hio nanii... 6.1m votes, and that's what Jubilee maxed out at on 8th August.  This is the reason why they're crying nusu mkate, they want it.

Things are so bad that they meet their "hoades" of fans at State house.... What was the vote split in NBO?  Between Governors compared to the presidential ballot?





Don't worry about what I do for a living.  I wouldn't let you anywhere near anything I'm doing.   The figures are saying that Jubilee does not have the numbers to win.  Screaming and crying does not change that fact.   I agree with you 100% of  facts and figures.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Nefertiti on September 18, 2017, 01:04:54 PM
1) They go for election - they lose by even bigger margin.
2) They boycott election - Uhuru still win by even bigger margin.
 
Option 2 seem to be their best bet. Their boycott will be to deny Uhuru legitimacy locally and internationally - ala 2008 Zim re-run boycott of Tsavingirai. However Uhuru has parliament, senate, mca and pretty much the rest of gok so the gok will function as always - and beside UhuRuto after ICC debacle don't give a damn about legitimacy. If  Raila boycott election - Uhuru is re-elected - and for next few years NASA will try to play militant politics which as I have alluded previously will fall flat just like their attempt few weeks ago to demonstrate. With devolution - most people are going to be busy with local issues - and Raila-Kalonzo will remain lonely bitter old men.

In any case NASA best option remain 2 - they go for election - they get a really big dog beating - they don't - and many will think they were gonna be robbed. I'd go for option 2-  save face and probably get a slice of bread along the way if Jubilee feel magnanimous enough.

Matiba tried option 2 - he went ahead to burn his ID card - but Moi is still smilling in Kabarak.

Raila has no leverage to talk about apart from the 4 SCOK Judges who agreed with him.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 01:14:15 PM
What leverage do they have for nusu-mkate. If they boycott elections - Uhuru will still win - either by default  - or winning more than half of votes & 25 counties - Uhuru already has super-majority in both houses of parliament, county gok as functioning and security forces seem on top of things.

In short without widespread violence - which NASA are incapable of pulling - the US don't give a rat arse about this - and will concentrate on North Korea & other serious stuff. NASA will try their mass action - but it will only fly in Kondele, Mathere and Kibera for 2 days before it fizzle out - while rest of the country will move on.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: vooke on September 18, 2017, 01:16:29 PM
Us ONLY wants dialogue towards re-run not power sharing fantasies
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Nefertiti on September 18, 2017, 03:14:40 PM
I see. NASA must be very careful not to dig themselves into a big hole... once mass action starts - they will start fighting with Sonko and Mutua - even Ngilu - who will ask them to stop scaring away investors from their towns. Don't even go down the secession route. Most Kenyans - after watching Somalia and South Sudan go down the drain - will abandon NASA in droves.

Option 2 is the most likely outcome - by writing formally to the IEBC - otherwise despite "boycott" the record will be 80% historic beating  :D in an election with international observers.

What leverage do they have for nusu-mkate. If they boycott elections - Uhuru will still win - either by default  - or winning more than half of votes & 25 counties - Uhuru already has super-majority in both houses of parliament, county gok as functioning and security forces seem on top of things.

In short without widespread violence - which NASA are incapable of pulling - the US don't give a rat arse about this - and will concentrate on North Korea & other serious stuff. NASA will try their mass action - but it will only fly in Kondele, Mathere and Kibera for 2 days before it fizzle out - while rest of the country will move on.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: patel on September 18, 2017, 03:24:20 PM
What kind of high grade crack are you smoking miss little piggy?
I see. NASA must be very careful not to dig themselves into a big hole... once mass action starts - they will start fighting with Sonko and Mutua - even Ngilu - who will ask them to stop scaring away investors from their towns. Don't even go down the secession route. Most Kenyans - after watching Somalia and South Sudan go down the drain - will abandon NASA in droves.

Option 2 is the most likely outcome - by writing formally to the IEBC - otherwise despite "boycott" the record will be 80% historic beating  :D in an election with international observers.

What leverage do they have for nusu-mkate. If they boycott elections - Uhuru will still win - either by default  - or winning more than half of votes & 25 counties - Uhuru already has super-majority in both houses of parliament, county gok as functioning and security forces seem on top of things.

In short without widespread violence - which NASA are incapable of pulling - the US don't give a rat arse about this - and will concentrate on North Korea & other serious stuff. NASA will try their mass action - but it will only fly in Kondele, Mathere and Kibera for 2 days before it fizzle out - while rest of the country will move on.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kichwa on September 18, 2017, 03:33:03 PM
Robina: Its obvious that you do not understand how fired up the base of NASA is.  People are already carrying the "new flag" to the rallies. Sonko, Mutua and Ngilu are the ones to be swept into the NASA movement and not the other way round. Secession talk is here to stay.  The only compromise to secession will be more money and autonomy to the counties, and an end to this winner take all presidency which Kalenjins and kikuyus want to use to dominate other tribes.

I see. NASA must be very careful not to dig themselves into a big hole... once mass action starts - they will start fighting with Sonko and Mutua - even Ngilu - who will ask them to stop scaring away investors from their towns. Don't even go down the secession route. Most Kenyans - after watching Somalia and South Sudan go down the drain - will abandon NASA in droves.

Option 2 is the most likely outcome - by writing formally to the IEBC - otherwise despite "boycott" the record will be 80% historic beating  :D in an election with international observers.

What leverage do they have for nusu-mkate. If they boycott elections - Uhuru will still win - either by default  - or winning more than half of votes & 25 counties - Uhuru already has super-majority in both houses of parliament, county gok as functioning and security forces seem on top of things.

In short without widespread violence - which NASA are incapable of pulling - the US don't give a rat arse about this - and will concentrate on North Korea & other serious stuff. NASA will try their mass action - but it will only fly in Kondele, Mathere and Kibera for 2 days before it fizzle out - while rest of the country will move on.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on September 18, 2017, 03:55:17 PM
It's obvious NASA believe they have no chance in an election that can be easily rigged.  They will be the first to tell you that.  I don't see the value of repeating something nobody is disputing.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 03:55:48 PM
Nobody is buying that secession crap. First to secede they are two options 1) referendum 2) violent way - I don't think you have the numbers for 1) and the stomach for 2. So all this are just empty hollow desperate threats. You have one option - concede and live to fight another day.
Robina: Its obvious that you do not understand how fired up the base of NASA is.  People are already carrying the "new flag" to the rallies. Sonko, Mutua and Ngilu are the ones to be swept into the NASA movement and not the other way round. Secession talk is here to stay.  The only compromise to secession will be more money and autonomy to the counties, and an end to this winner take all presidency which Kalenjins and kikuyus want to use to dominate other tribes.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 03:56:40 PM
We don't listen to words only; we also observe actions; which normally speak louder than words.
It's obvious NASA believe they have no chance in an election that can be easily rigged.  They will be the first to tell you that.  I don't see the value of repeating something nobody is disputing.

Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 03:59:11 PM
I think they'll go for option 1 - and hope it ignite violence in their strongholds so international community can pressure Uhuru for deal (ala 2007-2008 or 2008 Zim deal)-where their supporters are trying to battle police and IEBC from conducting election. But like you say - if 2 people cast their votes for Uhuru out of 2  - that 100% score.
I see. NASA must be very careful not to dig themselves into a big hole... once mass action starts - they will start fighting with Sonko and Mutua - even Ngilu - who will ask them to stop scaring away investors from their towns. Don't even go down the secession route. Most Kenyans - after watching Somalia and South Sudan go down the drain - will abandon NASA in droves.

Option 2 is the most likely outcome - by writing formally to the IEBC - otherwise despite "boycott" the record will be 80% historic beating  :D in an election with international observers.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kadame7 on September 18, 2017, 04:06:35 PM
Nobody is buying that secession crap. First to secede they are two options 1) referendum 2) violent way - I don't think you have the numbers for 1) and the stomach for 2. So all this are just empty hollow desperate threats. You have one option - concede and live to fight another day.
Robina: Its obvious that you do not understand how fired up the base of NASA is.  People are already carrying the "new flag" to the rallies. Sonko, Mutua and Ngilu are the ones to be swept into the NASA movement and not the other way round. Secession talk is here to stay.  The only compromise to secession will be more money and autonomy to the counties, and an end to this winner take all presidency which Kalenjins and kikuyus want to use to dominate other tribes.
So relax. When Arab spring started everyone thought it was a joke. If this is a joke itll fizzle. But what I know. It used to be downright crazy talk. Not too long ago. Now, not anymore. It is more and more mainstream.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on September 18, 2017, 04:10:52 PM
Nobody is buying that secession crap. First to secede they are two options 1) referendum 2) violent way - I don't think you have the numbers for 1) and the stomach for 2. So all this are just empty hollow desperate threats. You have one option - concede and live to fight another day.
Robina: Its obvious that you do not understand how fired up the base of NASA is.  People are already carrying the "new flag" to the rallies. Sonko, Mutua and Ngilu are the ones to be swept into the NASA movement and not the other way round. Secession talk is here to stay.  The only compromise to secession will be more money and autonomy to the counties, and an end to this winner take all presidency which Kalenjins and kikuyus want to use to dominate other tribes.

The reason secession is hard is not domestic but international.  Once recognition by major players comes in the rest is irrelevant.  If I want secession, I would try to push for US recognition, failure for that, EU etc.  After that maybe referendum in the territory that wants to secede.  The rest would fall into place once those two are attained.  Are they easy to get?  Nope.  But they are the real hurdles in a secession.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on September 18, 2017, 04:12:50 PM
We don't listen to words only; we also observe actions; which normally speak louder than words.
It's obvious NASA believe they have no chance in an election that can be easily rigged.  They will be the first to tell you that.  I don't see the value of repeating something nobody is disputing.


Well, then that should be easy.  The action thus far is that Jubilee did not win.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Nefertiti on September 18, 2017, 04:13:01 PM
You may have a point... although am actually a lukewarm NASA supporter... am not fired up. I guess I don't believe in change at all cost. IEBC was appointed with Raila's participation - for 2013 and 2017 - I don't believe the defeat last month was caused by massive cheating. NASA lost the elections and will lose the repeat. Reforms are a lifetime process and are called continuous improvement when there is no acrimony. Any new IEBC personnel will be called thieves after Oct 17th.

There are secession efforts in Spain(Catalonia), UK (Scotland, N.Ireland), etc - rich countries that have no electoral fraud. In N. Ireland it's bizarre catholic-protestant nonsense. Still in UK the Scots can't stomach the English tyranny of numbers... where Gordon Brown could not last 3yrs due to anti-Scot sentiment in England. Ours is driven by ukabila. Kikuyus wanted secession during Moi... if Raila wins Luos would suddenly trust the IEBC and don't be surprised to see Kikuyus calling for secession... Punda amechoka  8) Personally I think - with our tribal bile and mistrust - we need further devolution which should be pegged to internationally recognized optimal levels - considering Kenya is a tiny country. US, Germany have 40% devolution of national revenues.

Democracy like life has winners and losers. Let's be adult about it.

Robina: Its obvious that you do not understand how fired up the base of NASA is.  People are already carrying the "new flag" to the rallies. Sonko, Mutua and Ngilu are the ones to be swept into the NASA movement and not the other way round. Secession talk is here to stay.  The only compromise to secession will be more money and autonomy to the counties, and an end to this winner take all presidency which Kalenjins and kikuyus want to use to dominate other tribes.

I see. NASA must be very careful not to dig themselves into a big hole... once mass action starts - they will start fighting with Sonko and Mutua - even Ngilu - who will ask them to stop scaring away investors from their towns. Don't even go down the secession route. Most Kenyans - after watching Somalia and South Sudan go down the drain - will abandon NASA in droves.

Option 2 is the most likely outcome - by writing formally to the IEBC - otherwise despite "boycott" the record will be 80% historic beating  :D in an election with international observers.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kichwa on September 18, 2017, 04:26:37 PM
Secession talk is real and has a very huge following.  The calculation of Ruto was that you steal elections, scare the people with police power, shoot a few luos and mambo kwisha. When Ndii started the secession talk some people laughed.  Now we have secession flags flying and folks going to court to litigate secession.  Kenya is not going back to the Moi/Kenyattaa days no matter how much money Ruto uses to buy people.  They have bought all the people they can buy, the remaining Kenyans are not for sale and there are enough of us left to give them pure hell.  The secession talk is just beginning. Its our bottom- line. If all fails then we secede. If you want to know how powerful this idea is, then just imagine that not too long ago, it was not even a political issue for discussion and within a month it has gained so much popularity in NASA strong holds.  That's nothing to sneeze at.  Meanwhile we will not accept another elections without reforms and if Jubilee think they can hold sham elections and swear in Ouru then they are in for one hell of political fight until  proper elections are held and a president who is properly elected is sworn in.  I do not think that president will be ouru or Ruto.

Nobody is buying that secession crap. First to secede they are two options 1) referendum 2) violent way - I don't think you have the numbers for 1) and the stomach for 2. So all this are just empty hollow desperate threats. You have one option - concede and live to fight another day.
Robina: Its obvious that you do not understand how fired up the base of NASA is.  People are already carrying the "new flag" to the rallies. Sonko, Mutua and Ngilu are the ones to be swept into the NASA movement and not the other way round. Secession talk is here to stay.  The only compromise to secession will be more money and autonomy to the counties, and an end to this winner take all presidency which Kalenjins and kikuyus want to use to dominate other tribes.

The reason secession is hard is not domestic but international.  Once recognition by major players comes in the rest is irrelevant.  If I want secession, I would try to push for US recognition, failure for that, EU etc.  After that maybe referendum in the territory that wants to secede.  The rest would fall into place once those two are attained.  Are they easy to get?  Nope.  But they are the real hurdles in a secession.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 04:29:29 PM
That is just mere idle talk. Go ahead and secede already. I don't think anybody is losing sleep if Luo Nyanza secede today. Maybe it about time you test war the same way Kikuyu and Kalenjin tasted war during colonial and post-colonial period. There was secession by some fools in Coast - Pwani sio Kenya - how did that end?

My advice - concede and live to fight another day - anything else is bound to bring more misery, poverty and teeth-gnashing while rest of kenya move ahead.

Secession talk is real and has a very huge following.  The calculation of Ruto was that you steal elections, scare the people with police power, shoot a few luos and mambo kwisha. When Ndii started the secession talk some people laughed.  Now we have secession flags flying and folks going to court to litigate secession.  Kenya is not going back to the Moi/Kenyattaa days no matter how much money Ruto uses to buy people.  They have bought all the people they can buy, the remaining Kenyans are not for sale and there are enough of us left to give them pure hell.  The secession talk is just beginning. Its our bottom- line. If all fails then we secede. If you want to know how powerful this idea is, then just imagine that not too long ago, it was not even a political issue for discussion and within a month it has gained so much popularity in NASA strong holds.  That's nothing to sneeze at.  Meanwhile we will not accept another elections without reforms and if Jubilee think they can hold sham elections and swear in Ouru then they are in for one hell of political fight until  proper elections are held and a president who is properly elected is sworn in.  I do not think that president will be ouru or Ruto.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:30:26 PM
You are so angry and your rage is denying you the capacity to look at things in their true perspective.

First of all you have to end living in denial by accepting that:L

a. Uhuru did not win the elections
b. Uhuru did not beat Raila
c. You have no way of knowing that Uhuru will win a fresh election
d. Jubilee lost the so called tyranny of numbers a long time ago and it has been proven to you multiple times

Now here are other simple facts you should try hard to absorb:

What leverage do they have for nusu-mkate. If they boycott elections - Uhuru will still win - either by default  - or winning more than half of votes & 25 counties - Uhuru already has super-majority in both houses of parliament, county gok as functioning and security forces seem on top of things.

In short without widespread violence - which NASA are incapable of pulling - the US don't give a rat arse about this - and will concentrate on North Korea & other serious stuff. NASA will try their mass action - but it will only fly in Kondele, Mathere and Kibera for 2 days before it fizzle out - while rest of the country will move on.

3) Play brinkman and force nusu mkate. Already the US is demanding them to cooperate/dialogue.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:32:00 PM
More evidence of Pundit having become more Muthamaki than Uthamaki: He thinks that Opposition is just wajaluo! You have no idea!

That is just mere idle talk. Go ahead and secede already. I don't think anybody is losing sleep if Luo Nyanza secede today.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 04:33:16 PM
Here comes the sky is pink. Omollosque nonsense at it best. You live in your own universe. You have zero leverage that can make UhuRuto share power. Power is not just given. You got to fight hard and long enough for it. Ruto has earned his place in power.
You are so angry and your rage is denying you the capacity to look at things in their true perspective.

First of all you have to end living in denial by accepting that:L

a. Uhuru did not win the elections
b. Uhuru did not beat Raila
c. You have no way of knowing that Uhuru will win a fresh election
d. Jubilee lost the so called tyranny of numbers a long time ago and it has been proven to you multiple times

Now here are other simple facts you should try hard to absorb:
  • NASA is NOT pushing for Nusu-Mkate: Uhuru is pushing for it (demand proof and you will be given)
  • NASA has NOT said it will boycott elections: The mantra is No Elections. Try hard to understand the meaning and the difference between that and what you are alleging without proof
  • What you are saying about Uhuru "winning" by default is founded on ignorance. I have no time to wisen you up but in time you will
  • Please do not misrepresent the US. You statements run in head winds based on what is both publicly available and otherwise (see another thread)
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 04:37:00 PM
When Raila lost - nobody protested in Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Kisii,Kitui, Machakos, Mombasa or Garissa - it was clearly a luo affair - that fizzled out as soon as it started in Kondele, Kibera and Mathare. Again where is the leverage. You need to realize the Nusu-Mkate Raila got - Kalenjin warriors did a LOT of heavy lifting. Kibaki was never gonna just share power just because some luo were protesting - something they've been doing from 1966 :) all through Moi's regime. He shared power mainly because Kalenjin warriors made RV hell for his people.

You need to understand that power concede nothing. If you don't even have Mungiki - how do you hope to win power? Through slings and stones - where you burn and stone your town? Donge.

Show me one thing (leverage) that will force Uhuru to share power. Maybe a rogue judiciary.

More evidence of Pundit having become more Muthamaki than Uthamaki: He thinks that Opposition is just wajaluo! You have no idea!
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:37:43 PM
There are facts presented and not least by the apex court of the land.

When you talk of "defeat" upon what fact do you stand? Where do you pull those "facts" from? You have some cheap rotten ideas.

You may have a point... although am actually a lukewarm NASA supporter... am not fired up. I guess I don't believe in change at all cost. IEBC was appointed with Raila's participation - for 2013 and 2017 - I don't believe the defeat last month was caused by massive cheating. NASA lost the elections and will lose the repeat. Reforms are a lifetime process and are called continuous improvement when there is no acrimony. Any new IEBC personnel will be called thieves after Oct 17th.

There are secession efforts in Spain(Catalonia), UK (Scotland, N.Ireland), etc - rich countries that have no electoral fraud. In N. Ireland it's bizarre catholic-protestant nonsense. Still in UK the Scots can't stomach the English tyranny of numbers... where Gordon Brown could not last 3yrs due to anti-Scot sentiment in England. Ours is driven by ukabila. Kikuyus wanted secession during Moi... if Raila wins Luos would suddenly trust the IEBC and don't be surprised to see Kikuyus calling for secession... Punda amechoka  8) Personally I think - with our tribal bile and mistrust - we need further devolution which should be pegged to internationally recognized optimal levels - considering Kenya is a tiny country. US, Germany have 40% devolution of national revenues.

Democracy like life has winners and losers. Let's be adult about it.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:41:58 PM
What was your source of information on the dearth of protests?

Bryan please post that video of Vofranga MPs being kicked out of a funeral in Bungoma for Pundit to see.

Again let me repeat may be it will get through: NASA is AGAINST Nusu Mkate. If you have beef with nusu mkate talk to Uhuru Kenyatta. He sent his lawyer to court to beg for it and has been sending pastors and Catholic priests to beg. NASA has NOT sent anybody.

When you get evidence of NASA begging for Nusu Mkate please share it. You anger against Nusu-Mkate must be directed at Uhuru Kenyatta not NASA. Pole

When Raila lost - nobody protested in Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Kisii,Kitui, Machakos, Mombasa or Garissa - it was clearly a luo affair - that fizzled out as soon as it started in Kondele, Kibera and Mathare. Again where is the leverage. You need to realize the Nusu-Mkate Raila got - Kalenjin warriors did a LOT of heavy lifting. Kibaki was never gonna just share power just because some luo were protesting - something they've been doing from 1966 :) all through Moi's regime. He shared power mainly because Kalenjin warriors made RV hell for his people.

You need to understand that power concede nothing. If you don't even have Mungiki - how do you hope to win power? Through slings and stones - where you burn and storn your town? Donge.
More evidence of Pundit having become more Muthamaki than Uthamaki: He thinks that Opposition is just wajaluo! You have no idea!
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:43:40 PM
Could someone translate this for Pundit into Kipsigis or Nandi so he can understand? This guy has become so thick he can't take in a simple sentence.

Here comes the sky is pink. Omollosque nonsense at it best. You live in your own universe. You have zero leverage that can make UhuRuto share power. Power is not just given. You got to fight hard and long enough for it. Ruto has earned his place in power.
You are so angry and your rage is denying you the capacity to look at things in their true perspective.

First of all you have to end living in denial by accepting that:L

a. Uhuru did not win the elections
b. Uhuru did not beat Raila
c. You have no way of knowing that Uhuru will win a fresh election
d. Jubilee lost the so called tyranny of numbers a long time ago and it has been proven to you multiple times

Now here are other simple facts you should try hard to absorb:
  • NASA is NOT pushing for Nusu-Mkate: Uhuru is pushing for it (demand proof and you will be given)
  • NASA has NOT said it will boycott elections: The mantra is No Elections. Try hard to understand the meaning and the difference between that and what you are alleging without proof
  • What you are saying about Uhuru "winning" by default is founded on ignorance. I have no time to wisen you up but in time you will
  • Please do not misrepresent the US. You statements run in head winds based on what is both publicly available and otherwise (see another thread)
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 04:45:43 PM
I don't have a problem understanding everyone else. Clearly something is wrong with you. You create stuff on the fly and want me to respond to nonsense? Iwinjo?
Could someone translate this for Pundit into Kipsigis or Nandi so he can understand? This guy has become so thick he can't take in a simple sentence.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:46:11 PM
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:51:33 PM
I told you eons ago that I no longer care for a response from you. I only respond to what you write to save people from deliberate lies and misrepresentations.

Debating you is no better than debating a bot controlled by William Ruto. You have got it in to your electronic head that NASA wants nusu-mkate. The evidence shows it is the Jubilee wing that wants nusu-mkate. KM has posted extensive evidence including a video of Ngatia pleading for Nusu mkate. The Githeri Media has written about it; The Uthamaki TV stations have brought in Talking Empty Skulls to talk about it: YOU just don't get it!

Let me repeat: Present DIRECT Evidence that NASA wants a Nusu Mkate government or shut your computer generated mouth please
I don't have a problem understanding everyone else. Clearly something is wrong with you. You create stuff on the fly and want me to respond to nonsense? Iwinjo?
Could someone translate this for Pundit into Kipsigis or Nandi so he can understand? This guy has become so thick he can't take in a simple sentence.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Nefertiti on September 18, 2017, 04:51:57 PM
"Pwani si Kenya" has been around for a while. The coast has had the most grievances - politically - and originated the majimbo business culminating in develution. Before that there was Shifta who claimed NFD is Somalia. Secession started in 60s... 80s... then died down as mainstream kabilas battled Moi for central power. It should be discussed openly - we are a democracy - and the great SCOK will become bandia after rejecting it  :)

Once the right to secede is granted, the next frontier is usually the legal mechanism - where unionists insist on a universal vote (Kenya yote) - while the secessionists demand regional votes. I think the county system complicates secession strategy - cause there are no more provinces to collate the vote - not that they cannot be revived. In the UK secession has resulted in lots of political and economic pampering for the Scots.

Secession talk is real and has a very huge following.  The calculation of Ruto was that you steal elections, scare the people with police power, shoot a few luos and mambo kwisha. When Ndii started the secession talk some people laughed.  Now we have secession flags flying and folks going to court to litigate secession.  Kenya is not going back to the Moi/Kenyattaa days no matter how much money Ruto uses to buy people.  They have bought all the people they can buy, the remaining Kenyans are not for sale and there are enough of us left to give them pure hell.  The secession talk is just beginning. Its our bottom- line. If all fails then we secede. If you want to know how powerful this idea is, then just imagine that not too long ago, it was not even a political issue for discussion and within a month it has gained so much popularity in NASA strong holds.  That's nothing to sneeze at.  Meanwhile we will not accept another elections without reforms and if Jubilee think they can hold sham elections and swear in Ouru then they are in for one hell of political fight until  proper elections are held and a president who is properly elected is sworn in.  I do not think that president will be ouru or Ruto.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Nefertiti on September 18, 2017, 04:55:43 PM
The invalidated results of course. The rigging-vs-fumbling jury is still out. These are opinions you know - "Nipate" means see you at the lounge :) My prediction is 60% beating on 17th... with the pope as IEBC Chair. Because of tumbocracy.

There are facts presented and not least by the apex court of the land.

When you talk of "defeat" upon what fact do you stand? Where do you pull those "facts" from? You have some cheap rotten ideas.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 04:56:32 PM
What more evidence than - There WONT BE election in kenya :). Without election - we cannot elect our president. And that will call for some Nusu-Mkate of some sort.
Let me repeat: Present DIRECT Evidence that NASA wants a Nusu Mkate government or shut your computer generated mouth please
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 04:57:16 PM
There are CLEAR provisions for secession in the Constitution of Kenya.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 04:58:35 PM
Yeap through a referendum. Go ahead and win a referendum if you cannot win PORK.
There are CLEAR provisions for secession in the Constitution of Kenya.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 05:05:04 PM
I had a professor who used to shout: non sequitur! But then Pundit is weakest on Logic. How do you help him understand there is no connection between the issues he is raising and that the conclusion is totally erroneous (and may well be deliberately so) That is some stretch. It only proves your panic.

Nothing says no election means nusu-mkate. In fact I have been hearing of interim government kicking in after 60 days and have no idea where that is coming from.

Uhuru will lack legitimacy but will be in office legally.
 
What more evidence than - There WONT BE election in kenya :). Without election - we cannot elect our president. And that will call for some Nusu-Mkate of some sort.
Let me repeat: Present DIRECT Evidence that NASA wants a Nusu Mkate government or shut your computer generated mouth please

Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kichwa on September 18, 2017, 05:09:37 PM
The secession talk is definitely not new but it has gotten bigger and better.  When Ruto and Ouru came up with the strategy of Kalenjin/Kikuyu ruling for 100 years they assumed that the other tribes will just sit there and take it because of their money and "numbers". The moral of the story is that whenever you have a plan against someone always assume that they will come up with a counter plan. Secession talk is our answer to them. The only compromise will be more power and money to the counties and end to this divisive presidency.

"Pwani si Kenya" has been around for a while. The coast has had the most grievances - politically - and originated the majimbo business culminating in develution. Before that there was Shifta who claimed NFD is Somalia. Secession started in 60s... 80s... then died down as mainstream kabilas battled Moi for central power. It should be discussed openly - we are a democracy - and the great SCOK will become bandia after rejecting it  :)

Once the right to secede is granted, the next frontier is usually the legal mechanism - where unionists insist on a universal vote (Kenya yote) - while the secessionists demand regional votes. I think the county system complicates secession strategy - cause there are no more provinces to collate the vote - not that they cannot be revived. In the UK secession has resulted in lots of political and economic pampering for the Scots.

Secession talk is real and has a very huge following.  The calculation of Ruto was that you steal elections, scare the people with police power, shoot a few luos and mambo kwisha. When Ndii started the secession talk some people laughed.  Now we have secession flags flying and folks going to court to litigate secession.  Kenya is not going back to the Moi/Kenyattaa days no matter how much money Ruto uses to buy people.  They have bought all the people they can buy, the remaining Kenyans are not for sale and there are enough of us left to give them pure hell.  The secession talk is just beginning. Its our bottom- line. If all fails then we secede. If you want to know how powerful this idea is, then just imagine that not too long ago, it was not even a political issue for discussion and within a month it has gained so much popularity in NASA strong holds.  That's nothing to sneeze at.  Meanwhile we will not accept another elections without reforms and if Jubilee think they can hold sham elections and swear in Ouru then they are in for one hell of political fight until  proper elections are held and a president who is properly elected is sworn in.  I do not think that president will be ouru or Ruto.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Omollo on September 18, 2017, 05:09:50 PM
Same disease; Same solution. IEBC and reforms.

Again: Let me remind you:
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Null-and-Void.jpg)
Yeap through a referendum. Go ahead and win a referendum if you cannot win PORK.
There are CLEAR provisions for secession in the Constitution of Kenya.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: Kichwa on September 18, 2017, 05:16:09 PM
The only legitimate "dog beating" was at the SCOK.

Same disease; Same solution. IEBC and reforms.

Again: Let me remind you:
(http://omollosview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Null-and-Void.jpg)
Yeap through a referendum. Go ahead and win a referendum if you cannot win PORK.
There are CLEAR provisions for secession in the Constitution of Kenya.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 05:32:14 PM
Sounds good to me. Uhuru mandate and legitimacy has never been in question. We just don't want another NUSU-MKate. Full loaf.
Uhuru will lack legitimacy but will be in office legally.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 05:33:34 PM
You won a repeat election - which you're scared stiff. You've lost more support than 8.8. A bigger repeat dog-beating is 4 weeks to go unless IEBC extend by another week.
The only legitimate "dog beating" was at the SCOK.
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: vooke on September 18, 2017, 05:56:25 PM
NASWA are not campaigning
How many statements have they issued since SCOK determination?
How many meetings have they over the same period?

If by numbers NASWA means number of statements,then they are light years ahead
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: RV Pundit on September 18, 2017, 05:59:03 PM
Before 8.8 - they use to file a case nearly every day during the official campaign period and hold a presser against iebc - now they are busy with presser - I bet if SCOK ruling is just a litany of small fumbles here and there - the'll re-activing going back to court - as they do a presser.

The dog-beating is looking like 40-60%.

NASWA are not campaigning
How many statements have they issued since SCOK determination?
How many meetings have they over the same period?

If by numbers NASWA means number of statements,then they are light years ahead
Title: Re: Desperate NASA btw rock and hard place.
Post by: vooke on September 18, 2017, 06:05:16 PM
Before 8.8 - they use to file a case nearly every day during the official campaign period and hold a presser against iebc - now they are busy with presser - I bet if SCOK ruling is just a litany of small fumbles here and there - the'll re-activing going back to court - as they do a presser.

The dog-beating is looking like 40-60%.

NASWA are not campaigning
How many statements have they issued since SCOK determination?
How many meetings have they over the same period?

If by numbers NASWA means number of statements,then they are light years ahead

NASWA' strategy is delaying elections by all means necessary for the next 29 days under the misguided notion that this would force a 'caretaker government'. Once there are no realistic expectation of having an election by then,trust a NASWA proxy to seek constitutional interpretation of what next after 60 days