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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 05:23:45 PM

Title: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 05:23:45 PM
GEMA juggernaut before you add Kalenjin votes(2.8M votes) -- and the rest of votes Jubilee will get is just tops up.
(https://scontent.fnbo5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21462623_10204029313330177_3355408536097779326_n.jpg?oh=84c29756176f609d0056d93e6a0008b0&oe=5A41883E)
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kichwa on September 16, 2017, 05:44:02 PM
Think outside the little box of elections run by a compromised IEBC and corruption money.  There are other numbers that you ignore at your own peril.  Life is not all about elections as you will soon discover. There are other numbers that you do not have control over. Kenya has a population of 45 million and even one million of that population if well organized can be very disruptive.  The Jewish people are only 6% of the USA but they are very powerful politically. Furthermore, the kikuyu Kalenjin lovefest will not last forever. There is more than one way to skin this cat and we will. We only needed four judges to be where we are today. Numbers are very relative my friend.

GEMA juggernaut before you add Kalenjin votes(2.8M votes) -- and the rest of votes Jubilee will get is just tops up.
(https://scontent.fnbo5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21462623_10204029313330177_3355408536097779326_n.jpg?oh=84c29756176f609d0056d93e6a0008b0&oe=5A41883E)
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: bryan275 on September 16, 2017, 05:49:39 PM
GEMA juggernaut before you add Kalenjin votes(2.8M votes) -- and the rest of votes Jubilee will get is just tops up.
(https://scontent.fnbo5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21462623_10204029313330177_3355408536097779326_n.jpg?oh=84c29756176f609d0056d93e6a0008b0&oe=5A41883E)


So these are the actual votes that Jubilee got in August.  The rest were computer generated.

The truth is coming out slowly.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 05:56:46 PM
If you add total GEMA+Kalenjin votes - registered is close to 9m - if you assume 85% turn out - then Uhuru gets 7.5M votes - that is just from GEMA+Kalenjin - NASA cannot beat that - leave alone when Jubilee get few votes here and there throughout the country. You guys are in for long hard ride..till 2032 or 2040.
So these are the actual votes that Jubilee got in August.  The rest were computer generated.

The truth is coming out slowly.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kichwa on September 16, 2017, 06:14:53 PM

Is there anything you think about politically other than the Kalenjin plus Gema numbers?

If you add total GEMA+Kalenjin votes - registered is close to 9m - if you assume 85% turn out - then Uhuru gets 7.5M votes - that is just from GEMA+Kalenjin - NASA cannot beat that - leave alone when Jubilee get few votes here and there throughout the country. You guys are in for long hard ride..till 2032 or 2040.
So these are the actual votes that Jubilee got in August.  The rest were computer generated.

The truth is coming out slowly.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on September 16, 2017, 07:12:53 PM
GEMA juggernaut before you add Kalenjin votes(2.8M votes) -- and the rest of votes Jubilee will get is just tops up.
(https://scontent.fnbo5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21462623_10204029313330177_3355408536097779326_n.jpg?oh=84c29756176f609d0056d93e6a0008b0&oe=5A41883E)


So these are the actual votes that Jubilee got in August.  The rest were computer generated.

The truth is coming out slowly.

I think the theory is that outside GEMA and Kalenjin there are no people.  Maraga threw a monkey wrench on it.  I haven't looked at the census in a while but I would be less than surprised if NASA core tribes are more than this jubilant core. It would be interesting to see the numbers inside and outside.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: patel on September 16, 2017, 07:15:22 PM
Ouch...that has to hurt. Garbage in garbage out built on assumption all registered voters in central are kikuyu or muthamaki voting robots. If crackhead uhuru had this numbers in his back pocket then why did he have to steal the elections?

Is there anything you think about politically other than the Kalenjin plus Gema numbers?

If you add total GEMA+Kalenjin votes - registered is close to 9m - if you assume 85% turn out - then Uhuru gets 7.5M votes - that is just from GEMA+Kalenjin - NASA cannot beat that - leave alone when Jubilee get few votes here and there throughout the country. You guys are in for long hard ride..till 2032 or 2040.
So these are the actual votes that Jubilee got in August.  The rest were computer generated.

The truth is coming out slowly.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: patel on September 16, 2017, 07:17:59 PM
With a clean register that number would dwindle to 4.5 million at best. But we always know IEBC is least interested with clean free and fair election.
GEMA juggernaut before you add Kalenjin votes(2.8M votes) -- and the rest of votes Jubilee will get is just tops up.
(https://scontent.fnbo5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21462623_10204029313330177_3355408536097779326_n.jpg?oh=84c29756176f609d0056d93e6a0008b0&oe=5A41883E)


So these are the actual votes that Jubilee got in August.  The rest were computer generated.

The truth is coming out slowly.

I think the theory is that outside GEMA and Kalenjin there are no people.  Maraga threw a monkey wrench on it.  I haven't looked at the census in a while but I would be less than surprised if NASA core tribes are more than this jubilant core. It would be interesting to see the numbers inside and outside.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: GeeMail on September 16, 2017, 07:23:06 PM
Am I the only one who gets the odd feeling that past population censuses have been fiddled with as well to buttress certain MOASS theories? Who remembers the way mouths fell open when Somali numbers were put on the screen at the last census?
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on September 16, 2017, 07:29:21 PM
Ouch...that has to hurt. Garbage in garbage out built on assumption all registered voters in central are kikuyu or muthamaki voting robots. If crackhead uhuru had this numbers in his back pocket then why did he have to steal the elections?

Is there anything you think about politically other than the Kalenjin plus Gema numbers?

If you add total GEMA+Kalenjin votes - registered is close to 9m - if you assume 85% turn out - then Uhuru gets 7.5M votes - that is just from GEMA+Kalenjin - NASA cannot beat that - leave alone when Jubilee get few votes here and there throughout the country. You guys are in for long hard ride..till 2032 or 2040.
So these are the actual votes that Jubilee got in August.  The rest were computer generated.

The truth is coming out slowly.

That assumption could be true to some extent but only in the more rural counties.  Luos, Luhyas, Kambas, Kisiis also tend to be fairly spread out, so their numbers will be represented in a similar fashion.  Areas of RV like Trans/Nzoia, Nandi, Uasin Gishu ... have significant numbers of them.  I think these are the ones Pundit hopes will be intimidated and stopped from voting.  Miji Kenda are more purely coastal.  In raw population numbers they are more than the jubilant core tribes.  If Coast and Western can improve their turnouts, it becomes more difficult to rig.

On the jubilant side, GEMA are also spread out.  RV has significant numbers of them.  Also GEMA rural areas are more purely GEMA than those of other big tribes.  Kalenjin, are negligible outside RV.  You exhaust their votes in RV and you have to count on pockets of GEMA to pick up the slack.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kichwa on September 16, 2017, 07:30:29 PM
They think that all they have to do is pull some numbers from a hat  and we will start copulating to their whims.

Am I the only one who gets the odd feeling that past population censuses have been fiddled with as well to buttress certain MOASS theories? Who remembers the way mouths fell open when Somali numbers were put on the screen at the last census?
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on September 16, 2017, 07:31:10 PM
Am I the only one who gets the odd feeling that past population censuses have been fiddled with as well to buttress certain MOASS theories? Who remembers the way mouths fell open when Somali numbers were put on the screen at the last census?

If elections can be fiddled with, yes, population censuses are even easier - because there are no petitions. Somali just went on a breeding frenzy in their drought ridden backyard. 
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 08:14:44 PM
It's hopeless for NASA in an election that will see low turnout outside luo,Gema and Kalenjin.I am predicting around 70-72% turn out from 78% we had and that would mean UhuRuto will win big..coz Gema n Kalenjin will turn out like crazy...so it possible Uhuru will win by 61%...I will work on moass this week but not looking good for NASA.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 08:18:47 PM
As for census it's been done since 1948..and you can check figures from 1962..1969..79..89..99..09..and we due for another soon.Any cooking or rigging is hard to conceal.Lots of data to cross reference like school admission,kcpe candidates etc etc
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: GeeMail on September 16, 2017, 08:19:35 PM
The oddest thing about Pundit's MOASS is that Uhuru worked really hard campaigning last time. Some say for the first time. Now assuming his Jubilee base really turned out (we have no idea really now that we are confronted with tuvifalangalanga results) and all it amounted to is some odd 6m votes. So what prevents NASA base from maxxing out as well? Why does Pundit think Jubilee are the only ones who will turn out to vote? You can now understand why Uhuru is angry (self confessed) but instead of barking up at IEBC he picks on a flea like Maraga using a stolen sledgehammer. NKT.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 08:28:26 PM
Dude we have had elections since 1924..we have enough historical data to make a case..we saw huge turnout bump in 2013 to 83% that reduced this year to 79%... previously it was 66-72%.. without other five ballots other tribes outside luo,Gema n Kalenjin will not turn up.. they don't give so much fuck.. and that my theory...you can tell from lacklustre campaigns that turn out is gonna be low..
The oddest thing about Pundit's MOASS is that Uhuru worked really hard campaigning last time. Some say for the first time. Now assuming his Jubilee base really turned out (we have no idea really now that we are confronted with tuvifalangalanga results) and all it amounted to is some odd 6m votes. So what prevents NASA base from maxxing out as well? Why does Pundit think Jubilee are the only ones who will turn out to vote? You can now understand why Uhuru is angry (self confessed) but instead of barking up at IEBC he picks on a flea like Maraga using a stolen sledgehammer. NKT.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: vooke on September 16, 2017, 08:38:43 PM
Yep, the allure of elections is gone, just like Christmas. You can't get excited twice in quick succession. I think Mt Kenya & North Rift will lead in turnout at 75% followed by Nyanza at 70%. Ukambani at best 65%. The rest I don't see anywhere past 55-60%
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: GeeMail on September 16, 2017, 08:42:29 PM
Dude we have had elections since 1924..we have enough historical data to make a case..we saw huge turnout bump in 2013 to 83% that reduced this year to 79%... previously it was 66-72%.. without other five ballots other tribes outside luo,Gema n Kalenjin will not turn up.. they don't give so much fuck.. and that my theory...you can tell from lacklustre campaigns that turn out is gonna be low..
The oddest thing about Pundit's MOASS is that Uhuru worked really hard campaigning last time. Some say for the first time. Now assuming his Jubilee base really turned out (we have no idea really now that we are confronted with tuvifalangalanga results) and all it amounted to is some odd 6m votes. So what prevents NASA base from maxxing out as well? Why does Pundit think Jubilee are the only ones who will turn out to vote? You can now understand why Uhuru is angry (self confessed) but instead of barking up at IEBC he picks on a flea like Maraga using a stolen sledgehammer. NKT.
Pundit you are pulling a ton of wool over us. The sheer number of Jubilee campaigns and cash compared to NASA should have given it a walkover Kagame style. The fact that your MIASS relies heavily on Gema-Kalenjin axis of evil tells much about the lacklustre performance of a government unable to leverage even on incumbency alone. That it went ahead to steal and now deploy massive funds to buy old rejected politicians does not speak much in its favor. Go ahead and do the MOASS though.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 08:42:51 PM
I think luo,kikuyu n Kalenjin will tend towards 90%
if kiems kit work n stop stuffing.The rest of the country won't be bothered by war they have Little stake.
Yep, the allure of elections is gone, just like Christmas. You can't get excited twice in quick succession. I think Mt Kenya & North Rift will lead in turnout at 75% followed by Nyanza at 70%. Ukambani at best 65%. The rest I don't see anywhere past 55-60%
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 08:44:54 PM
If you check Moas I don't give much to UhuRuto outside Gema and Kalenjin.infact they outperformed moass.I am gonna work on moass off IEBC data and really battle the turn out.
Dude we have had elections since 1924..we have enough historical data to make a case..we saw huge turnout bump in 2013 to 83% that reduced this year to 79%... previously it was 66-72%.. without other five ballots other tribes outside luo,Gema n Kalenjin will not turn up.. they don't give so much fuck.. and that my theory...you can tell from lacklustre campaigns that turn out is gonna be low..
The oddest thing about Pundit's MOASS is that Uhuru worked really hard campaigning last time. Some say for the first time. Now assuming his Jubilee base really turned out (we have no idea really now that we are confronted with tuvifalangalanga results) and all it amounted to is some odd 6m votes. So what prevents NASA base from maxxing out as well? Why does Pundit think Jubilee are the only ones who will turn out to vote? You can now understand why Uhuru is angry (self confessed) but instead of barking up at IEBC he picks on a flea like Maraga using a stolen sledgehammer. NKT.
Pundit you are pulling a ton of wool over us. The sheer number of Jubilee campaigns and cash compared to NASA should have given it a walkover Kagame style. The fact that your MIASS relies heavily on Gema-Kalenjin axis of evil tells much about the lacklustre performance of a government unable to leverage even on incumbency alone. That it went ahead to steal and now deploy massive funds to buy old rejected politicians does not speak much in its favor. Go ahead and do the MOASS though.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Nefertiti on September 16, 2017, 10:13:52 PM
Why won't kaos turn up? please remind me. I hear they used to be a Gema subgroup sometime ago but broke off... which some of the Meru are ambitious to copy.

I think luo,kikuyu n Kalenjin will tend towards 90%
if kiems kit work n stop stuffing.The rest of the country won't be bothered by war they have Little stake.
Yep, the allure of elections is gone, just like Christmas. You can't get excited twice in quick succession. I think Mt Kenya & North Rift will lead in turnout at 75% followed by Nyanza at 70%. Ukambani at best 65%. The rest I don't see anywhere past 55-60%
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on September 16, 2017, 10:20:30 PM
Why won't kaos turn up? please remind me. I hear they used to be a Gema subgroup sometime ago but broke off... which some of the Meru are ambitious to copy.

I think luo,kikuyu n Kalenjin will tend towards 90%
if kiems kit work n stop stuffing.The rest of the country won't be bothered by war they have Little stake.
Yep, the allure of elections is gone, just like Christmas. You can't get excited twice in quick succession. I think Mt Kenya & North Rift will lead in turnout at 75% followed by Nyanza at 70%. Ukambani at best 65%. The rest I don't see anywhere past 55-60%

They need the theory to maintain MOASS at all costs.  On GEMA, Kambas were never part of it.  I once used to think the letter A in GEMA stood for Akamba.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 10:20:49 PM
Kamba have never turned up in good numbers... maybe it's perennial drought
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: GeeMail on September 16, 2017, 10:21:05 PM
There were riots in Garissa ob the night and next day after results were announced. There have been riots against Ruto in Western just last week. Juilee have been taunting the internet withrecycled rejects like Fred Gumo. Most of all, governors in certain pkaces leaning towards NASA have resoures to mobilize real people and take them to vote. Forsome peculiar reason, Pundit thinks only jubilee can mobilize. Some Kenyans are angrier than Uhuru.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 10:25:45 PM
nope.I try to objective.there are places Jubilee have invested do  much but if they ain't  buying it Moas Ain't buying it[quoteeMail link=topic=5630.msg43884#msg43884 date=1505589665]
There were riots in Garissa ob the night and next day after results were announced. There have been riots against Ruto in Western just last week. Juilee have been taunting the internet withrecycled rejects like Fred Gumo. Most of all, governors in certain pkaces leaning towards NASA have resoures to mobilize real people and take them to vote. Forsome peculiar reason, Pundit thinks only jubilee can mobilize. Some Kenyans are angrier than Uhuru.
[/quote]
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 10:30:53 PM
The really shocking thing is that folks thing moass is part of some rigging scheme.I have studied our politics   and don't  throw careless numbers around. In 2010 I predicted 31% for Nos against 68% ..near bulls eye and nobody protested
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Kichwa on September 16, 2017, 10:37:46 PM
Politics is bigger than your obsession with the narrow obsession with kikuyu/Kalenjin electoral coalition politics. It only started in 2013 and is already losing steam.

The really shocking thing is that folks thing moass is part of some rigging scheme.I have studied our politics   and don't  throw careless numbers around.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Nefertiti on September 16, 2017, 10:37:52 PM
Why won't kaos turn up? please remind me. I hear they used to be a Gema subgroup sometime ago but broke off... which some of the Meru are ambitious to copy.

I think luo,kikuyu n Kalenjin will tend towards 90%
if kiems kit work n stop stuffing.The rest of the country won't be bothered by war they have Little stake.
Yep, the allure of elections is gone, just like Christmas. You can't get excited twice in quick succession. I think Mt Kenya & North Rift will lead in turnout at 75% followed by Nyanza at 70%. Ukambani at best 65%. The rest I don't see anywhere past 55-60%

They need the theory to maintain MOASS at all costs.  On GEMA, Kambas were never part of it.  I once used to think the letter A in GEMA stood for Akamba.

GEMA included Akamba in Jomo days... it was meant to sideline Moi. Moi banned it and hived off the Kamba using the Mulu Mutisya clique.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gikuyu,_Embu,_and_Meru_Association
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: Globalcitizen12 on September 16, 2017, 11:03:23 PM
Nasa should just wait for a thrashing turniut in central will be 85 percent
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: RV Pundit on September 16, 2017, 11:04:39 PM
That was before kambas tried to overthrow Kenyatta in 72 in military coup.That probably marked the end of Akamba n Agikuyu.Ndolo and kitili were main architect and since then the bad blood btw kamba n kikuyu has persisted.
Title: Re: You can go for as many repeat elections but the elephant in the house remain
Post by: bimnji on September 17, 2017, 03:27:01 AM
Kambas were never part of GEMA gikuyu embu meru association. The association was formed by communities who had the most fighters in the mau mau . The kambas were not very well represented within the mau mau. Matter of fact most people around mt kenya perceived the kambas as working for the mzungus for example they were well represented within the homeguards and thats the reason why the kenya army had a lot of kambas in its beginning.