Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 21, 2017, 11:19:39 AM
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Focus 1: County projection for Uhuru and Raila. Pretty close except for few counties highlighted. Lots of bull-eyes including Bomet :) -that shocked NASA:) - Nairobi and many others.
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Now please explain 54% vs 44% for Pro Jubilee candidates?
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Let's stick to MOAS (my own concoction) here versus IEBC.
Now please explain 54% vs 44% for Pro Jubilee candidates?
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Let's start at the beginning:
During the "testing", why did the system deduct one vote from Raila and not all the others?
Not seeing anything. Are you missing some url?
Algorithm theory: In situation where 41,000 polling stations are rapidly and progressively releasing per-polling stations results - this provides a near perfect uniform random distribution that should reflect the final results at every given time. It doesn't matter if 1K are in or 30k are in - the final tally will be the same - because this is near perfect random sampling - there will small changes here and there because maybe NASA or Jubilee stronholds have slighlty better internet or less votes - so they are likely to marginally report their results earlier or later.
For example.
1)If good random sample of 41K - say the first 1000 polling stations randomly transmit their results from every corner - it should represent the final tally - 54% verus 45%.
2)If good random sample of 41k - say the next 10K polling station randomly transmit their results from every corner - it should represent the final tally -54% versus 45%
3)If whole set of 41k station all submit that information at ONCE - it should reflect 54% versus 45%.
In short this actually the basis of opinion polling - and this results vindicate IEBC.
You can compare and contrast with 2007 which was acknowledge by many to have been rigged for wild swings!
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So the Raila deductor algorithm was also tested :).
Let's start at the beginning:
During the "testing", why did the system deduct one vote from Raila and not all the others?
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Very funny indeed, is it not? Let me know the difference since you seem to suggest a distinction. An algorithm can perform many simple seemingly disjointed tasks all towards a specific goal.
So the Raila deductor algorithm was also tested :).
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I am analyzing the projected MOAS mps versus final declared results.er
Women rep : MOas 25 for Jubilee & allied; Actual 25 +plus Kanu(2)+PDR/EFP(2)+MCC(1) -30; NASA (21); Actual (16):Others & Indepenent (1): Actual (1)
MPS breakdown.
MPs: Jubilee & allied 159 versus 158 :D :D
NASA & allied 108 versus 108 :D :D :D :D :D
(http://www.nation.co.ke/image/view/-/4054612/highRes/1727249/-/e4tko7z/-/housepic.jpg)
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Pundit at this rate may need to confirm if he is Chirchir or Kibet of IEBC.
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I am a political pundit who can save this country the need to have expensive election.
Pundit at this rate may need to confirm if he is Chirchir or Kibet of IEBC.
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I am a political pundit who can save this country the need to have expensive election.
Pundit at this rate may need to confirm if he is Chirchir or Kibet of IEBC.
LOL! By copy pasting MOASS from IEBC or by generating tujifalangalanga 54%?
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You sound like the disgrace forwardo who escaped from choo.com
LOL! By copy pasting MOASS from IEBC or by generating tujifalangalanga 54%?
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Unstick this shit
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We will do another in few weeks
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This now is null and void.
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We will re-do another the Re-run MOAS.