Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: KenyanPlato on August 21, 2017, 08:31:02 AM
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That ichungwa guy is a moron and a pathetic economist. He lobbied brain haired uhuru to cap interest. Mr Kenya Cane wanted to be reelected and so he offered the masses potato break in the process baking them a stinking githeri bean
THE CENTRAL BANK OF KENYA. FILE PHOTO | NMG
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Private sector credit growth is unlikely to record meaningful recovery before end-year even after firms move on from the election-induced caution, analysts at investment bank Kestrel Capital say.
The macroeconomic outlook report for the second half of the year says the Central Bank is unlikely to move the base rate this year. The rate cap is also unlikely to be reviewed in the short term, meaning banks will continue keeping away from risky borrowers.
The rate of private sector credit growth dropped to 2.1 per cent in May, the lowest in more than a decade. The growth has fallen every month since the beginning of last year, hitting single-digits.
“While we believe that some banks will seek to accelerate lending to the private sector somewhat following the completion of the August 2017 elections, demand for credit remains uncertain,” said Kestrel in the report.
“Furthermore, we believe that any increase in private sector lending will be offset by principal amortisation of existing loans. Thus, at best, we anticipate seeing mid-single digit loan book growth as at end of 2017.”
READ: CBK acts on credit squeeze after rate cap introduction
Kestrel does not expect to see a reversal of the interest rate cap regime before the end of the year, largely on account of a “slow moving legislative process”.
The lack of recovery on credit growth would have a negative effect on the economy, which was already showing signs of slowdown going by the first quarter numbers.
The GDP growth rate slowed to 4.7 per cent in quarter one 2017, compared to 5.9 per cent in the same period of last year. The Central Bank considers a 12 to 15 per cent growth of lending ideal for robust economic expansion.
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It wasn't ichungwa, its June njomo of kiambu town. Credit growth had already started slowing way back in November before capping of interest spread. Granted the capping exacerbated the situation. The question is why hasn't the banks cranked up mobile lending to risky customers that they can charge at a higher rate ala mshwari and tala.
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It wasn't ichungwa, its June njomo of kiambu town. Credit growth had already started slowing way back in November before capping of interest spread. Granted the capping exacerbated the situation. The question is why hasn't the banks cranked up mobile lending to risky customers that they can charge at a higher rate ala mshwari and tala.
I cannot tell them apart. I stand corrected. This was a mistake by Uhuru, however, it is good for consumer protection. Kenyan poor need less credit and more employment.. Our economic growth will be at 3% this quarter and inch up 5% in the next quarter before dropping to 3% next year due to drought. By the way most employees have been negatively affected by retail meltdown. I was doing some consulting work for a certain Landlord and he had 15 evictions in July and August due to Nakumatt insolvency
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I cannot tell them apart. I stand corrected. This was a mistake by Uhuru, however, it is good for consumer protection. Kenyan poor need less credit and more employment.. Our economic growth will be at 3% this quarter and inch up 5% in the next quarter before dropping to 3% next year due to drought. By the way most employees have been negatively affected by retail meltdown. I was doing some consulting work for a certain Landlord and he had 15 evictions in July and August due to Nakumatt insolvency
Where are you getting those growth figures from? In coffee growing areas bumper harvest is expected meaning alot more discretionary expenditure. Also due to this year drought, dairy farmers have invested in fodder preservation which bodes well incase of severe drought next yr. Retail problem is affecting suppliers but now they've exploring different distribution channel. The key is increased tourism, more investment from FDI and hopefully uptick in manufacturing as leather industry finally start humming.
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So what are your projections? Coffee prices will then drop I wonder if the volume can make uto for the difference .last coffee production was about 1.3 million tonnes lower but prices went up
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So what are your projections? Coffee prices will then drop I wonder if the volume can make uto for the difference .last coffee production was about 1.3 million tonnes lower but prices went up
Prices will be lower but not by much. Last time we had a bumper harvest in 2015 the prices averaged $4 per kg. Which isn't bad. With the drought , elections and negligible credit growth the economy is still growing at 4.7% last quarter. So its unlikely the economy next year will deep below 5%, most likely it'll grow at between 5-6%.
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So why are you not roasting this coffee before selling it at $4 per Kg? I pay $6 for 340 grams. I buy eight O'clock the best selling coffee of all times in USA. I am actually thinking of starting a coffee shop and branding it myself. The cost will be about $200,000 to $375,000. I am hoping to have one in 5 years.
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So why are you not roasting this coffee before selling it at $4 per Kg? I pay $6 for 340 grams. I buy eight O'clock the best selling coffee of all times in USA. I am actually thinking of starting a coffee shop and branding it myself. The cost will be about $200,000 to $375,000. I am hoping to have one in 5 years.
That's one way, though to export to America one needs FDA approval to export roasted coffee. Its easier to export beans to America then roast and pack from there. The same applies for Europe, where its better to setup a roasting and packaging outfit in Europe then sell via online. I think theres a bigger opportunity in cold brew market that doesn't need to be freshly brewed like Starbucks coffee https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2016-10-18/bagel-coffee-mashups-give-glimpse-at-jab-s-caffeine-strategy . Bottom line increased consumption of coffee locally drives up coffee commodity prices.