Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: RV Pundit on August 04, 2017, 10:54:59 AM
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I believe the likelihood of post-election violence is closely related to:
1) How tight the final presidential & gubernatorial results are
2) Anything that suggests that polls could have been rigged
3) Any kind of procedural issue for the IEBC that may have disenfranchised a lot of voters
4) If NASA game-plan include instigating violence.
What Kenya will do to avoid violence
1) Ensure presidential & gubernatorial results have a clear winner. I expect Uhuru to win by about 1M votes.
2) IEBC & GOK need to be as transparent as possible. The systems hopefully will work. Observers & Media will be critical here.
3) Let hope we don't have big screw ups from IEBC - like misplaced or misprinted names or missing names in register or malfunctioning devices.
4) Police should just be equally prepared to counter and swiftly end any violence from NASA.
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This quote below is your partisan view or conjecture.
Statistically there is higher odds of rigging than fairplay. You told us yourself - a few stanzas ago - stuffing in strongholds & farflung areas is a given. I think our top players - Uhuru is too entitled while Raila & Ruto are power-hungry hyenas who will do anything to win. This trio caused 2008 PEV. Only Kalonzo & Madvd are amenable to losing no wonder they attract no fanatical following.
So instead of this wishful thinking - insure your Mavoko kiosk - and stock up as the bar may be out of bounds for a while. Personally I advise you - if you're privy to monkey tricks - desist from patronizing bitter folks - as they smart from unfair loss. Stay safe brother.
What Kenya will do to avoid violence
1) Ensure presidential & gubernatorial results have a clear winner. I expect Uhuru to win by about 1M votes.
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If BVR kit works - stronghold stuffing may not work anymore. I am putting my money on IEBC to deliver an election that will be free, fair, open and credible - that all observers and 3rd parties will endorse like in 2013.
This quote below is your partisan view or conjecture.
Statistically there is higher odds of rigging than fairplay. You told us yourself - a few stanzas ago - stuffing in strongholds & farflung areas is a given. I think our top players - Uhuru is too entitled while Raila & Ruto are power-hungry hyenas who will do anything to win. This trio caused 2008 PEV. Only Kalonzo & Madvd are amenable to losing no wonder they attract no fanatical following.
So instead of this wishful thinking - insure your Mavoko kiosk - and stock up as the bar may be out of bounds for a while. Personally I advise you - if you're privy to monkey tricks - desist from patronizing bitter folks - as they smart from unfair loss. Stay safe brother.
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My money is on a SCOK Petition. It'll be shot down, and within 2 weeks, life will go on.
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I am betting on IEBC, Observers and media. SCOK is non-nonsense.
My money is on a SCOK Petition. It'll be shot down, and within 2 weeks, life will go on.
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Jubilee played defense to the end. Even as early as yesterday Ouru was scrambling back to Maa land after Raila had locked it down the previous day with the Maa elders endorsement.
I see a decisive NASA first round win. A few scattered Jubilee youths supporters in central will be outraged into small riots while committing crimes that may include murder, rape and looting.
However, Many Kenyans will be happy including some who supported Ouru. Kenya will breath a sigh of relief and Kenya will be in the international spotlight as a beacon of hope for African democracy. It will be a new day as we celebrate and unify once again as a people. It will only be comparable to the mood in the country at independence and in 2002. It will be A New Dawn.
I am betting on IEBC, Observers and media. SCOK is non-nonsense.
My money is on a SCOK Petition. It'll be shot down, and within 2 weeks, life will go on.
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Jubilee played defense to the end. Even as early as yesterday Ouru was scrambling back to Maa land after Raila had locked it down the previous day with the Maa elders endorsement.
I see a decisive NASA first round win. A few scattered Jubilee youths supporters in central will be outraged into small riots while committing crimes that may include murder, rape and looting.
However, Many Kenyans will be happy including some who supported Ouru. Kenya will breath a sigh of relief and Kenya will be in the international spotlight as a beacon of hope for African democracy. It will be a new day as we celebrate and unify once again as a people. It will only be comparable to the mood in the country at independence and in 2002. It will be A New Dawn.
I am betting on IEBC, Observers and media. SCOK is non-nonsense.
My money is on a SCOK Petition. It'll be shot down, and within 2 weeks, life will go on.
Under 100 hours from finding out
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Yes Indeed. Canaan here we come.
Jubilee played defense to the end. Even as early as yesterday Ouru was scrambling back to Maa land after Raila had locked it down the previous day with the Maa elders endorsement.
I see a decisive NASA first round win. A few scattered Jubilee youths supporters in central will be outraged into small riots while committing crimes that may include murder, rape and looting.
However, Many Kenyans will be happy including some who supported Ouru. Kenya will breath a sigh of relief and Kenya will be in the international spotlight as a beacon of hope for African democracy. It will be a new day as we celebrate and unify once again as a people. It will only be comparable to the mood in the country at independence and in 2002. It will be A New Dawn.
I am betting on IEBC, Observers and media. SCOK is non-nonsense.
My money is on a SCOK Petition. It'll be shot down, and within 2 weeks, life will go on.
Under 100 hours from finding out
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This is telling. How do you ensure that someone wins with a specific number of votes?
Is a Kenya a Rotten Borough of some kind? The results are what the people shall vote and nobody can give any "assurances" unles it is an admission of planned theft.
Uhuru is losing badly and unless the 2.5 million votes will be used, he is going nowhere.
Ensure presidential & gubernatorial results have a clear winner. I expect Uhuru to win by about 1M votes.