Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Higgins the genius on July 26, 2017, 11:10:37 PM
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Buzeki core base was the NASA supporters. Will NASA endorsement change the arithmetics?
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Maybe he can pull joho..where for five years he mistreats other tribes but they look at big picture.Dont forget uasin gishu is Ruto home.
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Nandis will swallow their sour grapes quietly as all seats go Keiyo. NASA scores nothing.
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Nandi will win soy and maybe Turbo where luhya okwara is the jubilee candidate.But Nandi have William Ruto for Dpork although technically wsr is a kipsigis.If Mandago gets nearly 20% NASa support in Eldoret will turn the tables on Buzeki.But we I'll he...will luo n luhyas ignore their plight coz baba endorsed mandago like joho in msa.We will have to watch ho we far this endorsement rings.In the meantime NASa endorsing munya buries him in meru just like Isaac 35% went up the smoke.
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Well, Ruto and Uhuru endorsed Mandago and non-Nandis especially kikuyus didn't budge. And the NASA endorsement is a catch22 isn't it? Due to the big picture. I expect Luhyas to vote Raila but stick with Buzeki.
Nandi will win soy and maybe Turbo where luhya okwara is the jubilee candidate.But Nandi have William Ruto for Dpork although technically wsr is a kipsigis.If Mandago gets nearly 20% NASa support in Eldoret will turn the tables on Buzeki.But we I'll he...will luo n luhyas ignore their plight coz baba endorsed mandago like joho in msa.We will have to watch ho we far this endorsement rings.In the meantime NASa endorsing munya buries him in meru just like Isaac 35% went up the smoke.
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Yeap - the endorsement may ring hollow - coz other tribes (luhya,keiyo,kikuyus,luos, marakwet) have issues with mandago running the county like it was Nandi county(which has 20% luhya)- I guess like he was running maybe Bomet or Kericho where Kalenjin are 97%. We shall see but my money for now is still with Buzeki. In Mombasa - Joho has mistreated the non-coastal (luo,luhyas,gusii,kambas, kikuyus) but because he has strong support of Raila - I think they will just sheepily vote for him.
Well, Ruto and Uhuru endorsed Mandago and non-Nandis especially kikuyus didn't budge. And the NASA endorsement is a catch22 isn't it? Due to the big picture. I expect Luhyas to vote Raila but stick with Buzeki.
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MSA is interesting. Joho props ODM nationally not to look like Western alliance - picking fights with Uhuruto viciously - in turn Raila diehards overlook his dismal record - so yes it's sheepish loyalty. It's why Sarai Hassan Omar scores meagre 6% vs Joho 60% despite Wiper backing. Being just another fire-spitting Swahili is Omar's undoing - if he was say Mijikenda - Joho would feel some heat. Teaming up with Mwaboza gave Shahbal the boost to the 20% he polls consistently. Omar whole 6% must be Kamba.
Yeap - the endorsement may ring hollow - coz other tribes (luhya,keiyo,kikuyus,luos, marakwet) have issues with mandago running the county like it was Nandi county(which has 20% luhya)- I guess like he was running maybe Bomet or Kericho where Kalenjin are 97%. We shall see but my money for now is still with Buzeki. In Mombasa - Joho has mistreated the non-coastal (luo,luhyas,gusii,kambas, kikuyus) but because he has strong support of Raila - I think they will just sheepily vote for him.
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Hassan Omar was very dumb to go after Governor. Whats the greed? Why couldnt he stay senator? He will lose for the same reason that Raila couldnt push Balala onto coast in ODM politics back in the day, he was forced to let Balala fend for himself. I understand that the Mijikenda have a bitter historical animus with the tiny Waarabu population that ruled the coast and even though Omar is not a proper mwarabu, he still is no match for a strong mijikenda. I feel about Joho the way I feel about Sonko. But I couldve told Hassan Omar for free that that was a monumentally dumb move. Like Keneth/Karua going for PORK in 2013. Just amazing.
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Some people speculate that he really believed Joho would be barred from running.
Hassan Omar was very dumb to go after Governor. Whats the greed? Why couldnt he stay senator? He will lose for the same reason that Raila couldnt push Balala onto coast in ODM politics back in the day, he was forced to let Balala fend for himself. I understand that the Mijikenda have a bitter historical animus with the tiny Waarabu population that ruled the coast and even though Omar is not a proper mwarabu, he still is no match for a strong mijikenda. I feel about Joho the way I feel about Sonko. But I couldve told Hassan Omar for free that that was a monumentally dumb move. Like Keneth/Karua going for PORK in 2013. Just amazing.
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I think being so pedigree - young, eloquent, smart Swahili - must have deluded him as an easy run against D student Joho :D How could he stay a mere powerless senator? Well he is not alone - Khalwale, Nyong'o, Kiraitu, Munyes - the list is long
Hassan Omar was very dumb to go after Governor. Whats the greed? Why couldnt he stay senator? He will lose for the same reason that Raila couldnt push Balala onto coast in ODM politics back in the day, he was forced to let Balala fend for himself. I understand that the Mijikenda have a bitter historical animus with the tiny Waarabu population that ruled the coast and even though Omar is not a proper mwarabu, he still is no match for a strong mijikenda. I feel about Joho the way I feel about Sonko. But I couldve told Hassan Omar for free that that was a monumentally dumb move. Like Keneth/Karua going for PORK in 2013. Just amazing.
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Yeap Joho buys off Raila because he knows after the mijikenda - the luos are second largest- combined with luhyas - they are a big force in Mombasa.
MSA is interesting. Joho props ODM nationally not to look like Western alliance - picking fights with Uhuruto viciously - in turn Raila diehards overlook his dismal record - so yes it's sheepish loyalty. It's why Sarai Hassan Omar scores meagre 6% vs Joho 60% despite Wiper backing. Being just another fire-spitting Swahili is Omar's undoing - if he was say Mijikenda - Joho would feel some heat. Teaming up with Mwaboza gave Shahbal the boost to the 20% he polls consistently. Omar whole 6% must be Kamba.
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I doubt it. His attacks have been well trained on Joho since 2013. He must have meant to run against him all along. Shahbal & Awiti have always been just a distraction.
Some people speculate that he really believed Joho would be barred from running.
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Some people speculate that he really believed Joho would be barred from running.
Hassan Omar was very dumb to go after Governor. Whats the greed? Why couldnt he stay senator? He will lose for the same reason that Raila couldnt push Balala onto coast in ODM politics back in the day, he was forced to let Balala fend for himself. I understand that the Mijikenda have a bitter historical animus with the tiny Waarabu population that ruled the coast and even though Omar is not a proper mwarabu, he still is no match for a strong mijikenda. I feel about Joho the way I feel about Sonko. But I couldve told Hassan Omar for free that that was a monumentally dumb move. Like Keneth/Karua going for PORK in 2013. Just amazing.
In the post 'ICC duo charged with crimes against humanity and running for highest offices with blessings of IEBC and judiciary' world, that was an incredibly stupid assumption to make to the extent of staking your political career on it, honestly.
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Nandi will win soy and maybe Turbo where luhya okwara is the jubilee candidate.But Nandi have William Ruto for Dpork although technically wsr is a kipsigis.If Mandago gets nearly 20% NASa support in Eldoret will turn the tables on Buzeki.But we I'll he...will luo n luhyas ignore their plight coz baba endorsed mandago like joho in msa.We will have to watch ho we far this endorsement rings.In the meantime NASa endorsing munya buries him in meru just like Isaac 35% went up the smoke.
1. Luhyas, Luos, Kisiis etc have no candidate of their own. So it is really a choice between going to vote for one of the Kalenjin candidates or abstaining. Those who go to the polling box will follow the NASA advice and vote for Mandago. There may be some exceptions such those who have been bribed etc but they will be very few.
2. I disagree that Munya is done. For starters when two strong candidates are in contesting their supporters are pretty much settled and none can shift for any reason. For instance those who are supporting Uhuru in Kiambu will not vote for Raila unless Uhuru committed some crime that is unheard of (and I rule out shooting a man or woman at a public rally, raping a donkey in public...etc). In even the two are balanced in support, that is when the swing vote comes in.
Mandago knows that the Kikuyu will provide the swing vote for Buzeki. So he has engineered "insecurity" that has seen many leaving in droves. It is possible election day threats may cause some suppression. He has then made a pact with NASA to secure the Luhya vote in exchange for his supporters voting for NASA.
The reason I think you dismissed the other guy too fast is because who knows where this will lead to? If the exodus grows, it may result in unforeseen consequences even for the Luhyas and Luos. But the one thing that will be clear is like the man you dismissed wrote, the Luos, Luhyas, Kalenjin would be back in alliance against Kikuyus.
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Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues". I do not buy it. Since its a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?
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Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues". I do not buy it. Since its a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?
Apparently this one breaks down to sub-tribes too. Because Keiyo and Nandi are in play - I don't know which of them is Nandi or Keiyo, though I suspect Mandago is Keiyo. Then the ancillary tribes play their roles to push one or the other over the top. You could probably break it down further into clans.
There are always going to be some who care about track records, integrity and that kind of thing. But how many seriously?
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Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues". I do not buy it. Since its a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?
Issues are viewed with tribal lenses.
'Issues' matter once tribe is no longer an issue. Like Kiambu overwhelmingly rejecting Kabogo
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That would only be true if there were only two tribes in UG-the one which Mandago belongs to and the one Buzeki belongs to. If there are more than two tribes as in this case then the "other factors" must be at work but we are just too lazy to cite them because assigning tribal motives to political behavior is something we Kenyans love and have a lot of experience with. Its the only political analytical tool we put to use and so goes the saying, "if a hammer is the only tool you have, everything looks like a nail and needs to be hammered".
Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues". I do not buy it. Since its a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?
Apparently this one breaks down to sub-tribes too. Because Keiyo and Nandi are in play - I don't know which of them is Nandi or Keiyo, though I suspect Mandago is Keiyo. Then the ancillary tribes play their roles to push one or the other over the top. You could probably break it down further into clans.
There are always going to be some who care about track records, integrity and that kind of thing. But how many seriously?
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Ok- then take out the tribal lense. Its like calling everything red because you are wearing red lensed glasses and insisting that they are red instead of taking off the red lensed glasses.
People who do not belong to the candidates tribe are always considering other issues all the time except they are ignored. There are so many people who will vote for NASA because they believed Ouru and Ruto are incompetent and corrupt. However the Kenyan elite tribal political pundits will ignore their concerns and arrogantly assign them to a tribal voting block, wapende wasipende.
Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues". I do not buy it. Since its a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?
Issues are viewed with tribal lenses.
'Issues' matter once tribe is no longer an issue. Like Kiambu overwhelmingly rejecting Kabogo
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Ok- then take out the tribal lense. Its like calling everything red because you are wearing red lensed glasses and insisting that they are red instead of taking off the red lensed glasses.
Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues". I do not buy it. Since its a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?
Issues are viewed with tribal lenses.
'Issues' matter once tribe is no longer an issue. Like Kiambu overwhelmingly rejecting Kabogo
In UG, all non Kales are really indifferent to tribe because none of their home boy, to borrow your tautology, is vying.
There's an incumbent so the usual questions, has he delivered or does he appear to have delivered? Does he get along with UG electorate? Can't tell.
Mandago has tried to stoke ethnic flames by insinuating that min-Kales should not influence UG politics. This has made him look bad to all non-Kales
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In UG they are saying Raila Tipim[sic].
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That would only be true if there were only two tribes in UG-the one which Mandago belongs to and the one Buzeki belongs to. If there are more than two tribes as in this case then the "other factors" must be at work but we are just too lazy to cite them because assigning tribal motives to political behavior is something we Kenyans love and have a lot of experience with. Its the only political analytical tool we put to use and so goes the saying, "if a hammer is the only tool you have, everything looks like a nail and needs to be hammered".
Its amazing how the political analysis how UG will vote for its governor is purely tribal with no mention of even a single "other issues". I do not buy it. Since its a close race, can we fit in the so called "other factors" in the analysis?
Apparently this one breaks down to sub-tribes too. Because Keiyo and Nandi are in play - I don't know which of them is Nandi or Keiyo, though I suspect Mandago is Keiyo. Then the ancillary tribes play their roles to push one or the other over the top. You could probably break it down further into clans.
There are always going to be some who care about track records, integrity and that kind of thing. But how many seriously?
Yeah. I mean it's possible. I haven't denied that people care about "other factors". It's just that in Kenya, they believe their tribal leader represents the best chance of dealing with these factors. In fact, their tribal leader often decides what issues they should care about. I share with you the idea that this is not fixed forever, even if it looks like there is little risk of that changing soon. After all TZ seems to have overcome that kind of mindset.
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Exactly. Then I guess UG represents the national politics where only luos and Kikuyus have a "homeboy" vying. The rest are therefore swayed by other issues. Even if you throw in the tribes of the those vying for DP, you are still left with enough tribally indifferent voters to make "other factors" the decisive factor and not tribe as Pundit insists.
In UG, all non Kales are really indifferent to tribe because none of their home boy, to borrow your tautology, is vying.
There's an incumbent so the usual questions, has he delivered or does he appear to have delivered? Does he get along with UG electorate? Can't tell.
Mandago has tried to stoke ethnic flames by insinuating that min-Kales should not influence UG politics. This has made him look bad to all non-Kales
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Exactly. Then I guess UG represents the national politics where only luos and Kikuyus have a "homeboy" vying. The rest are therefore swayed by other issues. Even if you throw in the tribes of the those vying for DP, you are still left with enough tribally indifferent voters to make "other factors" the decisive factor and not tribe as Pundit insists.
In UG, all non Kales are really indifferent to tribe because none of their home boy, to borrow your tautology, is vying.
There's an incumbent so the usual questions, has he delivered or does he appear to have delivered? Does he get along with UG electorate? Can't tell.
Mandago has tried to stoke ethnic flames by insinuating that min-Kales should not influence UG politics. This has made him look bad to all non-Kales
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Remember issues are as mundane as physical looks. With NASWA endorsing Mandago, it is Tribe again; the indifferent outsiders (Luos,Luhyas and Kisii's) sympathetic to NASWA will go for Mandago.
As Termie told you, their leaders are the ones who decide which issues to fuss about
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My issue is with the political analyst who assigns the tribal factor by merely looking at a correlation and refusing to look beyond the tribal factor.
Question: Are luos voting for Raila just because Raila is a luo and nothing else?. AND, If there is an issue, are they voting for Raila because Raila told them what the issue is?. For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season. Are you telling me those Kenyans who care about these issues and will be voting accordingly are only doing so because their tribal leaders identified these issues for them and that if left on their own they would not have identified these issues as a problem.
This is where I break rank with the mainstream Kenyan elite political analyst. Tribe is the only political tool they use in their analsyis and I have found out that when a political analyst demonstrates an ability to identify the tribes or clans and his knowledge of how they will vote, the more respect the person gets and is looked upon as a great political analyst. our own pundito comes to mind.
I have asked Kenyans in the village who have very little education why they will vote for one candidate as opposed to the other and they have been able to tell me with clarity exactly why without using tribe or clan as a reason. I have hard things like I am voting against him because "he promised us water, roads, etc. then disappeared". These are the same reasons I hear in the west. And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002. If Kibaki did not steal the 2007 elections, and if Ouru loses this elections, then it means Kenyans really pay a close attention to the performance to the incumbents.
Yeah. I mean it's possible. I haven't denied that people care about "other factors". It's just that in Kenya, they believe their tribal leader represents the best chance of dealing with these factors. In fact, their tribal leader often decides what issues they should care about. I share with you the idea that this is not fixed forever, even if it looks like there is little risk of that changing soon. After all TZ seems to have overcome that kind of mindset.
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My issue is with the political analyst like you who assigns the tribal factor by merely looking at a correlation and refusing to look beyond the tribal factors. Qestion, Are luos voting for Raila just because Raila is a luo and nothing else?. OR, if there is an issue, are they voting for Raila because Raila told them what the issue is. For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season. Are you telling me those Kenyans who care for these issues and will be voting for them is because there tribal leaders identified these issues for them and told them these issues are important and that left on their own they would not have identified these issues as a problem. These is where I break rank with the mainstream Kenyan elite political analyst. Tribe is the only political tool they use in their analsyis and I have found out that when a political analyst demonstrates an ability to identify the tribes or clans and how they will vote, the more he is touted as a great political analyst. I have asked Kenyans in the village with very little education why they will vote for one candidate as opposed to the other and they have been able to tell me exactly why without using tribe or clan. I hear things like "he promised us water, roads, etc. then disappeared". These are the same reasons I hear in the west. And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002. If Kibaki did not steal the 2007 elections, and if Ouru loses this elections, then it means Kenyans really pay a close attention to the performance to the incumbents.
Yeah. I mean it's possible. I haven't denied that people care about "other factors". It's just that in Kenya, they believe their tribal leader represents the best chance of dealing with these factors. In fact, their tribal leader often decides what issues they should care about. I share with you the idea that this is not fixed forever, even if it looks like there is little risk of that changing soon. After all TZ seems to have overcome that kind of mindset.
Many if not all blacks voted for Obama in 2008 because he was black.
For his second bid, even when they could assess his performance,promises and failures which affected everyone equally, you will find blacks were more sympathetic to him at the poll purely on issues than the whites. Why was this? Race.
Take time and study opinion polls question on the direction Kenya is heading. Jubilee supporters/strongholds will not let down their own by trashing his performance as would NASWA supporters. Why ? Tribe.
Point is issues tend to be approached with tribal shades.
Even here, Omorlo is quite reluctant to concede that Babu rigged in 2007. This despite Kriegler fingering both sides of this.
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Nonsense. That is NOT true. If Obama, as black as he is, ran as a conservative 'Clarence Thomas" Republican, he would not have received even 1/8 of the black votes he got. I would not have voted for him with all his Luo/Kenyan connections. This is where you folks go wrong with the tribal vote in Kenya too. You look at voting pattern and see only the color or the tribe but ignore the underlying issues. You assume because I am a luo and I support Raila then it must be because of tribe. How come black people never voted for Carson the way they voted for Obama-wasn't he black enough?.
Many if not all blacks voted for Obama in 2008 because he was black.
For his second bid, even when they could assess his performance,promises and failures which affected everyone equally, you will find blacks were more sympathetic to him at the poll purely on issues than the whites. Why was this? Race.
Take time and study opinion polls question on the direction Kenya is heading. Jubilee supporters/strongholds will not let down their own by trashing his performance as would NASWA supporters. Why ? Tribe.
Point is issues tend to be approached with tribal shades.
Even here, Omorlo is quite reluctant to concede that Babu rigged in 2007. This despite Kriegler fingering both sides of this.
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Nonsense. That is NOT true. If Obama, as black as he is, ran as a conservative 'Clarence Thomas" Republican, he would not have received even 1/8 of the black votes he got. I would not have voted for him with all his Luo/Kenyan connections. This is where you folks go wrong with the tribal vote in Kenya too. You look at voting pattern and see only the color or the tribe but ignore the underlying issues. You assume because I am a luo and I support Raila then it must be because of tribe. How come black people never voted for Carson the way they voted for Obama-wasn't he black enough?.
Many if not all blacks voted for Obama in 2008 because he was black.
For his second bid, even when they could assess his performance,promises and failures which affected everyone equally, you will find blacks were more sympathetic to him at the poll purely on issues than the whites. Why was this? Race.
Take time and study opinion polls question on the direction Kenya is heading. Jubilee supporters/strongholds will not let down their own by trashing his performance as would NASWA supporters. Why ? Tribe.
Point is issues tend to be approached with tribal shades.
Even here, Omorlo is quite reluctant to concede that Babu rigged in 2007. This despite Kriegler fingering both sides of this.
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Carson?
Again Termie educated you. His bid was stillborn as nobody likes wasting votes. Explains why Orengo performed dismally
As usual, you are intentionally obtuse when it comes to Tribe simply because now it has shattered your fantasies, jolted you out of lala-land into the harsh reality of NASWA thrashing.
You would love to fantasize NASWA as 'issue based' running against a tribal juggernaut Jubilee. But that's just ignorance; both are as tribal as the other. I know you have been brainwashed into thinking Jubilee is Kikuyu-Kale affair while NASWA is everyone else. Fact is, regardless of how many times you repeat a fantasy, it never replaces reality. You don't shape reality by ignorance.
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I have asked Kenyans in the village who have very little education why they will vote for one candidate as opposed to the other and they have been able to tell me with clarity exactly why without using tribe or clan as a reason. I have hard things like I am voting against him because "he promised us water, roads, etc. then disappeared". These are the same reasons I hear in the west. And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002. If Kibaki did not steal the 2007 elections, and if Ouru loses this elections, then it means Kenyans really pay a close attention to the performance to the incumbents.
Yep. They will tell you all that. And when they go to vote, they still vote for different parties that just happen to be associated with their tribes. The jubilant will complain about roads, water, etc and then vote Jubilant. Same for the NASA supporter. And it happens across all socioeconomic lines. How do you explain that?
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There are so many people who will vote for NASA because they believed Ouru and Ruto are incompetent and corrupt.
Perhaps. But one does not have to be a political analyst to safely predict that, for example, Raila will not get any votes worth counting in Central and Uhuru will not get any votes worth counting in Nyanza. Why is that? What sorts of "issues" make that a reasonably safe prediction? You have written that:
For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season.
How do those issues lead Luos to vote for Raila and Kikuyus to vote for Uhuru?
The reason people say that voting in Kenya is tribal is that for offices at a certain level (e.g., president), you can in any given elections ignore everything but tribe and still make a reasonably accurate prediction on how people will vote. On the other hand, if you go solely by issues, you will almost certainly be wrong. One may argue with the assignment of some numbers in Pundit's MOAS, but the general premise seems to reflect reality.
By the way, while writing about 2022 and beyond, on the "Homeboy" thread, you implicitly made an admission that I found astonishing, given your other views. You wrote that:
The so called "other factors" will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.
And until that "near future" arrives?
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And to top it off, there is a very high number of incumbets voted out each elections except for the presidency which never had elections until 2002.
But that is not enough to lead to the conclusion that Kenyans care more about issues than about tribe/clan/etc. One has to also look at the replacement: if an incumbent is getting replaced by someone from the same tribe/clan/etc., then of course tribe/clan/etc. cannot possibly matter.
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Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru? Actually this election is about this debate. Jubilee believe they do not need an issue to win this election because they have the tribal numbers. NASA on the other hand believe they will win this election because the issues.
There are so many people who will vote for NASA because they believed Ouru and Ruto are incompetent and corrupt.
Perhaps. But one does not have to be a political analyst to safely predict that, for example, Raila will not get any votes worth counting in Central and Uhuru will not get any votes worth counting in Nyanza. Why is that? What sorts of "issues" make that a reasonably safe prediction? You have written that:
For example, we have the issues of unga, corruption, tribalism and employment this voting season.
How do those issues lead Luos to vote for Raila and Kikuyus to vote for Uhuru?
The reason people say that voting in Kenya is tribal is that for offices at a certain level (e.g., president), you can in any given elections ignore everything but tribe and still make a reasonably accurate prediction on how people will vote. On the other hand, if you go solely by issues, you will almost certainly be wrong. One may argue with the assignment of some numbers in Pundit's MOAS, but the general premise seems to reflect reality.
By the way, while writing about 2022 and beyond, on the "Homeboy" thread, you implicitly made an admission that I found astonishing, given your other views. You wrote that:
The so called "other factors" will become more reliable in the near future for predicting presidential elections than tribes.
And until that "near future" arrives?
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Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?
Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?
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Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?
Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?
I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water. It is based on deeply help stereotypes that Luos are bad at business and investments (therefore cannot be trusted to manage major resources for the future), and that silliness about being uncircumcised. But like I said, from all I can tell, this is a steadily shrinking group. There are places in Gusii where you' risk violence if you went about talking s*** about Raila. I don't think the same applies for Uhuru or Jubilee anywhere.
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As far as I am concerned, this is more about the political analyst than the people who are actually voting. Neither you or I know exactly why an individual votes the way they do unless you ask them. You have decided that they do so because of tribe and I disagree. The only way to really know is to ask each and every individual why they voted the way the do, otherwise I do not believe that your tribal explanation is the only one nor that it is superior to mine. It only shows that we approach this issue from different perspectives and experiences.
Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?
Do you think Kisiis are likely to vote for Raile and Somalis to vote for Uhuru?
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Raila's tribe has not changed since he started running but the tribal votes he gets have changed. In 2007 Kalenjins voted to him for him to a man and in 2013 they voted against him to a man. Let us stop this stupid argument and admit that the so called tribal voting cannot explain how and why 80% of Kenyans vote the way they do. Its like insisting that you have the answer to how to lead a happy life.
Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?
Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?
I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water.
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I also don't believe Somalis will be voting mostly for Uhuru. Simalis are split 50/50.
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I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water. It is based on deeply help stereotypes that Luos are bad at business and investments (therefore cannot be trusted to manage major resources for the future), and that silliness about being uncircumcised. But like I said, from all I can tell, this is a steadily shrinking group. There are places in Gusii where you' risk violence if you went about talking s*** about Raila. I don't think the same applies for Uhuru or Jubilee anywhere.
As I have explained at length on another thread, by "tribal voting", I mean tribe being a reliable guide in any given elections. You have given a good example---that Gusiis, as a tribe, can be counted on to mostly vote for Raila. I'm pretty sure the same thing applies to the Kamba, although I have no idea of their stance on "issues". Likewise, I am fairly confident of something similar with respect to Kalenjins, Meru, Embu ... and Uhuru, although, again, I have no idea of where they stand on the "issues".
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Raila's tribe has not changed since he started running but the tribal votes he gets have changed. In 2007 Kalenjins voted to him for him to a man and in 2013 they voted against him to a man. Let us stop this stupid argument and admit that the so called tribal voting cannot explain how and why 80% of Kenyans vote the way they do. Its like insisting that you have the answer to how to lead a happy life.
Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?
Do you really think Kisiis are likely to mostly vote for Raila and Somalis likely to mostly vote for Uhuru?
I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water.
I'm not making that argument, Kichwa.
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Ok. Kalonzo and Ruto running in 2022. Give us the MOAS of how the tribes will vote.
As I have explained at length on another thread, by "tribal voting", I mean tribe being a reliable guide in any given elections. You have given a good example---that Gusiis, as a tribe, can be counted on to mostly vote for Raila. I'm pretty sure the same thing applies to the Kamba, although I have no idea of their stance on "issues". Likewise, I am fairly confident of something similar with respect to Kalenjins, Meru, Embu ... and Uhuru, although, again, I have no idea of where they stand on the "issues".
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Raila's tribe has not changed since he started running but the tribal votes he gets have changed. In 2007 Kalenjins voted to him to a man and in 2013 they voted against him to a man. Let us stop this stupid argument and admit that the so called tribal voting cannot explain how and why 80% of Kenyans vote the way they do.
No need to be rude. You might tempt me into being condescending. :D
Now, carefully consider what you have just written: in 2007 they mostly voted for him, and in 2013 they mostly did not.
The first significant thing to note is that you are considering them as a tribal block in both those two elections. We may therefore say that the voting was tribal.
The second significant thing is your observation that Raila did not change between 2007 and 2013, but the way the Kalenjin voted changed dramatically. What caused the change? Their "our man", Ruto.
Actually tribal voting can explain how more the 80% of Kenyans vote in any elections. In these ones, I have a pretty good idea of how Luos, Kalenjins, Luhya, Kamba, Gusii, and GEMA will vote. That's a good chunk of the population. For the smaller ones, just go by which of the big ones they are "affiliated" with.
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I am Gusii and from everything I've heard, they certainly are. If anything, tribalism seems to me to be the primary reason those who reject Raila do so. There is a steadily shrinking segment of Gusiis that would never vote for a Luo come hell or high water. It is based on deeply help stereotypes that Luos are bad at business and investments (therefore cannot be trusted to manage major resources for the future), and that silliness about being uncircumcised. But like I said, from all I can tell, this is a steadily shrinking group. There are places in Gusii where you' risk violence if you went about talking s*** about Raila. I don't think the same applies for Uhuru or Jubilee anywhere.
As I have explained at length on another thread, by "tribal voting", I mean tribe being a reliable guide in any given elections. You have given a good example---that Gusiis, as a tribe, can be counted on to mostly vote for Raila. I'm pretty sure the same thing applies to the Kamba, although I have no idea of their stance on "issues". Likewise, I am fairly confident of something similar with respect to Kalenjins, Meru, Embu ... and Uhuru, although, again, I have no idea of where they stand on the "issues".
You could do the same with races in the U.S., though.
People influence each other's political views and most people are influenced by the people they are related to. In Africa, these are your ethnic groups. It doesn't mean that individuals robotically make detereminations based on "this person of my tribe says this, therefore I will do it regardless if whether its true or not".
To me, you guys, both your side and Kichwa, seem to be perpetually agreeing while seeming to disagree. You all keep making the same points over and over but using different approaches.
Humans are social creatures. Belonging to a group/having a collective identity is as natural to us as desiring survival. This may be satisfied through religion or ideological groups, or even ethnicities which have organically settled over hundreds of years. Humans tend to go with the consensus of the groups they are part of. Whichever part of the planet they happen to inhabit.
Most people dont have the personality or capacity to invest tonnes of resources to research everything for themselves, so they go with consensus and established authorities. This consensus is what I see here labelled as tribalism but I see it everywhere. The whole world is tribalist if that is true.
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Kadame - the Pundit and Kichwa positions are common. They are schools of thought. Seems we have the Left and the Right on Nipate. The tribe and the issue.
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I still have not figured out why it is important for a vote to be labeled *tribal* or "Non Tribal".
I spent some time in Belgium and noted how different groups vote according to their collective self interests.
The Northern League in Italy is not ethnic but is brought together by values of hate, racism, affluence and the anger at having to share some of their wealth. They vote their "Northern League against, well, The South, Immigrants and everything else.
The Corsicans in France vote for Pro or anti-Independence.
The Coastal in Kenya vote against Kikuyu led governments because of their Land. They support anybody who is genuinely interested in protecting their rights. The Turkana will vote for Raila almost to a man because he is promising to give them a greater share of their own oil.
If you examine each of these groups, there is an issue or matter/ value/ LIE etc that is binding them together to vote. Even the promise of 1000 Year Uthamaki complete with a history of Conquering Kings that never existed (T. Njoya), mobilizes the Kikuyu.
In Kenya the main issue has been and remains marginalization and the feeling of exclusion. When you exclude a group it soon joins with other excluded groups to form one big group.
Thus Kenyatta inadvertently helped to craft the Coalition that removed Kibaki in 2007 and will get rid of his son in 2017. It is simple: Both Kibaki and Uhuru followed the path created by Kenyatta and ended up rekindling the coalition that Kenyatta "created" against himself.
That is why I feel the Kalenjin may at the last minute opt for NASA.
Some oxymoron stuff here:
Pundit argues that politics is tribal and everything else is immaterial. Then when asked why people should vote for Jubilee, he goes: SGR, SiGiRi Bridge ; Economy has grown at triple digit, etc.
How is fulfilling Jubilee's manifesto in any way going to assist Jubilee convince people who only care about tribe to vote for it?
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As far as I am concerned, this is more about the political analyst than the people who are actually voting. Neither you or I know exactly why an individual votes the way they do unless you ask them. You have decided that they do so because of tribe and I disagree. The only way to really know is to ask each and every individual why they voted the way the do, otherwise I do not believe that your tribal explanation is the only one nor that it is superior to mine. It only shows that we approach this issue from different perspectives and experiences.
I think it's more about the data than the analyst. At individual level, a Luo cares about issues. Same for a Kikuyu. But the collective result always aligns with the tribal leaders preferences. It has already been mentioned that if you tried to focus purely on issues without taking the tribe into account, you can't make any meaningful prediction.
A Luo and Kikuyu neighbor in Kibra likely care about the same issues. Yet they will vote for different people, in a predictable way, if you factor in tribe. In fact the only insight you gain by asking them why they vote one way or another is that they conflate their interests, whatever those may be, with those of the tribal leader.
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I still have not figured out why it is important for a vote to be labeled *tribal* or "Non Tribal".
I spent some time in Belgium and noted how different groups vote according to their collective self interests.
The Northern League in Italy is not ethnic but is brought together by values of hate, racism, affluence and the anger at having to share some of their wealth. They vote their "Northern League against, well, The South, Immigrants and everything else.
The Corsicans in France vote for Pro or anti-Independence.
The Coastal in Kenya vote against Kikuyu led governments because of their Land. They support anybody who is genuinely interested in protecting their rights. The Turkana will vote for Raila almost to a man because he is promising to give them a greater share of their own oil.
If you examine each of these groups, there is an issue or matter/ value/ LIE etc that is binding them together to vote. Even the promise of 1000 Year Uthamaki complete with a history of Conquering Kings that never existed (T. Njoya), mobilizes the Kikuyu.
In Kenya the main issue has been and remains marginalization and the feeling of exclusion. When you exclude a group it soon joins with other excluded groups to form one big group.
Thus Kenyatta inadvertently helped to craft the Coalition that removed Kibaki in 2007 and will get rid of his son in 2017. It is simple: Both Kibaki and Uhuru followed the path created by Kenyatta and ended up rekindling the coalition that Kenyatta "created" against himself.
That is why I feel the Kalenjin may at the last minute opt for NASA.
Some oxymoron stuff here:
Pundit argues that politics is tribal and everything else is immaterial. Then when asked why people should vote for Jubilee, he goes: SGR, SiGiRi Bridge ; Economy has grown at triple digit, etc.
How is fulfilling Jubilee's manifesto in any way going to assist Jubilee convince people who only care about tribe to vote for it?
It's the most important predictor of an election at the national stage in Kenya. If you are planning on jumping into the fray, you have to factor it in your plans. You will either make a plan that can destroy it as a factor, or one that will ride it.
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It's the most important predictor of an election at the national stage in Kenya. If you are planning on jumping into the fray, you have to factor it in your plans. You will either make a plan that can destroy it as a factor, or one that will ride it.
Not possible in today's Kenya, which is why a Maasai, for example, would be a non-starter as a presidential candidate. To be a viable candidate in Kenya, one has to first come from a big tribe; that automatically corners the votes of his tribal sheeple and the sheeple of some small "affiliate" tribes. Next, one has to bring in at least one other big tribe ... same deal with the tribal sheeple. Kalonzo, for example, is a wishy-washy flake, yet he is now looking at the prospects of the VP's position, from the very people be let down earlier to get that position. How is that possible? Strictly, Kalonzo himself doesn't matter: his views on the issues, his past performance, etc. are irrelevant; what matters is that he brings plenty of sheeple. In 2013 Mudavadi knifed his friends in the back at the very last minute, but there he is today ... happily doing the Chubby Boogie on their stages and eyeing something big in government. Explanation?
Elsewhere on this thread comments have been made about Obama's run; in Kenya, Obama would be the Maasai guy.
Omollo writes that:
That is why I feel the Kalenjin may at the last minute opt for NASA.
To my mind, that's fantasy. But we'll find out soon enough.
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As far as I am concerned, this is more about the political analyst than the people who are actually voting. Neither you or I know exactly why an individual votes the way they do unless you ask them. You have decided that they do so because of tribe and I disagree. The only way to really know is to ask each and every individual why they voted the way the do, otherwise I do not believe that your tribal explanation is the only one nor that it is superior to mine. It only shows that we approach this issue from different perspectives and experiences.
Moon Ki- I will give you luos and Kikuyus for the sake of argument. But explain to me what is so tribal about Kisii's voting for Raila or Somali's voting for Ouru?
Do you think Kisiis are likely to vote for Raile and Somalis to vote for Uhuru?
You're right unless every individual gave an honest opinion for their choices, you would be guessing.
But after they make that decision, you can work backwards analyzing their choices and end up with Tribe instead of some unseen, ambiguous factor called 'issues'.
Right now, you have no idea why Kiambu will vote Uhunye to man and not Raila. What issue compels them? Is it that Raila can't communicate to them adequately how he will resolve their issues? Or is Uhunye offering the best solutions to their issues?
I think before you run away from the known, you must have sufficient proof that it is a weak predictor. So far you haven't
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Mudavadi knifed his friends in the back at the very last minute, but there he is today ... happily doing the Chubby Boogie on their stages and eyeing something big in government.
:lolz: :lolz:
We have a tweet of the day, can we have a quote of the week??
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Dr. Ndii had a problems explaining in one of his interviews why you cannot focus too much on individuals. Let us go back to the 2nd liberation or even to the 1st liberation for that matter, many bad dudes who opposed the movements earlier came aboard at the end and some people complained, but the most important thing was not the individuals but the achievements. Folks like Kibaki who made the "mugumo tree" analogy ended up advancing the cause of multi-party to a certain extent. We have folks who opposed devolution and the new Katiba initially and ended up being their biggest proponents today. Right now we have folks joining NASA who were corrupt but so long as the mechanisms to fight or reduce corruption are put in place, the individuals really do not matter. Ms. Kiguta asked Dr. Ndii about the corrupt people in NASA but when Dr. Ndii was trying to explain this to Ms. Kiguta, she was too busy raising her eyebrows.
Mudavadi knifed his friends in the back at the very last minute, but there he is today ... happily doing the Chubby Boogie on their stages and eyeing something big in government.
:lolz: :lolz:
We have a tweet of the day, can we have a quote of the week??