STATE HOUSE race remains tight as Uhuru approval rating drops by 1 point to 47% in latest Ipsos poll; Raila stays at 43%, with 5% undecided. pic.twitter.com/ktddQefnTr
— Nation Breaking News (@NationBreaking) July 23, 2017
Raila leads President Kenyatta by 1pc with 47pc popularity rating; 6pc of Kenyans undecided, Infotrak poll shows. #InfotrakPollKe pic.twitter.com/GcG0LY9yCu
— Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) July 23, 2017
I see Ambitho does her magic :) and cooks some stew to make ODM folks happy before their hopes are crushed in 2 weeks time.
Pundito-you are the most predictable. I could write your comments for you.
Of course. I am predictable, honest, steadyfast, dependable and truthful. I can tell you for free - that Ambitho less than a month had this - "The latest Infotrak poll had President Kenyatta leading by a five-percentage point margin – 48 per cent to Mr Odinga’s 43 per cent" -- just like Synovate Ipos then - now he wakes up - 2 weeks before election and flip the figures - and doesn't explain what EARTHQUAKE has happen the last few days to make Raila go up and Uhuru down :D. Ambitho is a predictable compromised opinion pollster.
I have never doubted the authenticity of the Mzungu in Synovate - I just believe their failure to factor tribe in their sampling metholodogy mean they often get it wrong. In homegenous counties - I normally default to Synovate & other credible pollster. In counties like Nairobi or Rift Valley which are heteregenous - you risk sampling more of tribe x - as opposed to their total population share.
Pollster that care for accuracy - should have tribe of the person being interviewed as key determinant - if you are sampling - 200 people in Nairobi - your 30% sample should be kikuyus.Pundito-you are the most predictable. I could write your comments for you.
Spin, spin, spin. Is there anything you do not spin. You sound like a used car salesperson.
I see Ambitho does her magic :) and cooks some stew to make ODM folks happy before their hopes are crushed in 2 weeks time.Zogby too?
Zogby too?
I am glad that you believe you will win.
Seem even with your own pollster - you cannot get them to do better than 47% versus 46%. I mean why not make it 55% versus 45% for NASA advantage. I got my own stew - MOAS -Zogby too?
I am glad that you believe you will win.
Msema kweli is 8.8.2017. Of course you'll cry it's rigged even when overwhelming evidence will shows it isn't. 8.8.2017 we will know btw Ambitho & MOAS who was right. Mere 15 days.
Spin, spin, spin. Is there anything you do not spin. You sound like a used car salesperson.
What makes you think you will NOT be the one crying rigged. Your world is stuck in 2013. A lot has changed my friend. The number to watch is 61% of Kenyans believe Ouruto is taking this country in the wrong direction. Only 23% think we are headed in the right direction. You should be very worried about that because that is how it may end up breaking.
Looking at IPSOS and Infotrak, I don't think either are bribed to cook results, I lean towards Pundits theory of tribal stratification. They miss on this and they get it bad.There maybe something to this theory. It's the same thing that happened with Brexit n Trump. People, probably out of embarrassment, lied to pollstars. I don't know why Kenyans would lie though, but it's a credible theory. Personally, Brexit n Trump convinced me to ignore opinion polls forever more. I just cant bring myself to take them seriously after that. I don't believe they are cooked. I just don't think they can tell us about the results of the vote.
County polls in homogeneous counties should be more accurate,right? But there's one on Jubilee primaries that they got it bad and good.
Kabogo performed dismally 70K vs 354K
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/waititu-wins-kiambu-seat-with-353604-votes-against-kabogos-69916_c1550534
Yet he had a 48% lead on Baba Yao's 31%. Even when you factor the huge Undecided, nothing explains how he lost it. Some hypothesized he was rigged out
http://infotrakresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/KIAMBU-COUNTYTRAK-APRIL-2017-FIN.pdf
Women Rep I think it was on point
http://upesinews.co.ke/2017/04/26/gathoni-muchomba-wins-kiambu-county-women-rep-jubilee-ticket/
But on Senators, it was totally off. The incumbent Wamatangi was leading the poll with 49% while number 2 had 7%. 40% were undecided. Yet come the primaries and while he won with 206K, the 7% number 2 had a whole 178K. It's hard to argue that a better portion of 40% suddenly went for the mr 7%
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/senator-wamatangi-secures-jubilee-ticket-for-august-8-polls_c1550774
So what happened here?
I think outside tribal dynamics, Kenyans are generally distrustful and they tend to be dishonest during polling.
So our polls are relatively inaccurate. What is amusing is the hypocrisy I see with NASWA and Jubilee. They will trash them and pretend they don't matter but it's obvious they are spooked. They take the results seriously. Nobody should cheat you that Jubilee is not excited by the better 'scores' they are getting in Western and Coast or NASWA's fortunes in NBO. Clearly the polls mean something.
What makes you think you will NOT be the one crying rigged. Your world is stuck in 2013. A lot has changed my friend. The number to watch is 61% of Kenyans believe Ouruto is taking this country in the wrong direction. Only 23% think we are headed in the right direction. You should be very worried about that because that is how it may end up breaking.Msema kweli is 8.8.2017. Of course you'll cry it's rigged even when overwhelming evidence will shows it isn't. 8.8.2017 we will know btw Ambitho & MOAS who was right. Mere 15 days.
Spin, spin, spin. Is there anything you do not spin. You sound like a used car salesperson.
Why lie? Probably because our political views are driven by tribe which is quite primitive and we know it.Looking at IPSOS and Infotrak, I don't think either are bribed to cook results, I lean towards Pundits theory of tribal stratification. They miss on this and they get it bad.There maybe something to this theory. It's the same thing that happened with Brexit n Trump. People, probably out of embarrassment, lied to pollstars. I don't know why Kenyans would lie though, but it's a credible theory. Personally, Brexit n Trump convinced me to ignore opinion polls forever more. I just cant bring myself to take them seriously after that. I don't believe they are cooked. I just don't think they can tell us about the results of the vote.
County polls in homogeneous counties should be more accurate,right? But there's one on Jubilee primaries that they got it bad and good.
Kabogo performed dismally 70K vs 354K
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/waititu-wins-kiambu-seat-with-353604-votes-against-kabogos-69916_c1550534
Yet he had a 48% lead on Baba Yao's 31%. Even when you factor the huge Undecided, nothing explains how he lost it. Some hypothesized he was rigged out
http://infotrakresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/KIAMBU-COUNTYTRAK-APRIL-2017-FIN.pdf
Women Rep I think it was on point
http://upesinews.co.ke/2017/04/26/gathoni-muchomba-wins-kiambu-county-women-rep-jubilee-ticket/
But on Senators, it was totally off. The incumbent Wamatangi was leading the poll with 49% while number 2 had 7%. 40% were undecided. Yet come the primaries and while he won with 206K, the 7% number 2 had a whole 178K. It's hard to argue that a better portion of 40% suddenly went for the mr 7%
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/26/senator-wamatangi-secures-jubilee-ticket-for-august-8-polls_c1550774
So what happened here?
I think outside tribal dynamics, Kenyans are generally distrustful and they tend to be dishonest during polling.
So our polls are relatively inaccurate. What is amusing is the hypocrisy I see with NASWA and Jubilee. They will trash them and pretend they don't matter but it's obvious they are spooked. They take the results seriously. Nobody should cheat you that Jubilee is not excited by the better 'scores' they are getting in Western and Coast or NASWA's fortunes in NBO. Clearly the polls mean something.