Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: vooke on July 19, 2017, 09:32:07 AM
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In a nutshell,
-Rutto delivers something in South Rift
-Bandit counties like Baringo,Turkana,Elgeyo Marakwet,LaikipiaSamburu..., all reeling from extrajudicial killings are NASWAd
-The KANU factor
-Nyambene and Tharaka are NASWAd in Mt Kenya plus the place is yet to benefit from kamwana...
-The impossibility of getting the 'necessary' top-up votes from Luo,Luhya,Kamba and Coastal communities (like they did in 2013?)
-Dwindling fortunes in Maasai & NEP
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001247979/opposition-outsmarting-jubilee-in-campaigns
Not bad for a keynote speaker at Babu's book launch
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Wishful thinking.
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Wishful thinking.
Pundit
I would have expected a more robust response with facts. You dislike when others dismiss your own MOAS as witchcraft but here you are...
Uhuru was in Lamu, gave money and food publicly as has now become normal for Jubilee but when he mounted the stage to call for Jubilee he got NASA. The same happened in Kilifi and Mombasa. He was humiliated in Kisii and Nyamira forcing the cancellation of many rallies and resorted to mass transportation of the "Red Army" an ever expanding standing army of youth being transported from one rally to another all over the country for 527 per day plus food.
So on the loss of TOP UP I say Manyora is spot on.
The question of Baringo and other RV counties mired in violence is obvious. First the Shoot to Kill order is resented by all the sides in the clashes. When you go to Pokot, the decision to by Ruto to be seen dishing out guns to their "enemies" has rubbed them the wrong way. It led to an urgent and rushed harambee to seek "defensive" weapons from outside Kenya.
Ruto is therefore toxic in Baringo on his own and add the supporters of Gideon in both Pokot and Baringo and you have a problem. I think Elgeyo Marakwet is gone too.
The idea that people would jeer Ruto but vote for Uhuru so Ruto - the man they hate - remains in office is a bit of a stretch. Unless you want to tell me that is possible and likely.
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As the campaigns enter the homestretch, it is becoming clear Jubilee has a rougher ride than NASA.
Its challenges are indeed daunting. First, for Jubilee to win, they must keep their core base intact by keeping NASA off the Gema and Kalenjin vote.
For the Kalenjin vote, Jubilee must first reduce Isaac Ruto to a mere irritant, incapable of giving NASA a foothold among the Kipsigis. This may not be a realistic expectation on the part of Jubilee as it is becoming increasingly clear that Ruto will deliver some votes to NASA.
And even if they succeed in keeping NASA out of the South Rift, they will still face challenges in the bandit-prone counties of Baringo, Turkana, Elgeyo Marakwet, Samburu, Laikipia and West Pokot.
The ongoing security operations in most of these counties have not endeared the Government to the people.
The other challenge in the Rift Valley is posed by Kanu’s support for President Uhuru Kenyatta to the exclusion of Ruto, his deputy. And because Kanu is in competition with Jubilee for the other elective seats, the possibility of Kanu sulking towards NASA is real.
ALSO READ: Kapsoya ward candidate who lost three children launches his bid
Kanu influence
Kanu’s Gideon Moi supports Uhuru, but has his own ambitions. A careful analysis of this will show that it is in the interest of Gideon Moi that Uhuru loses this election because a Uhuru victory comes with William Ruto.
Hence, it would be difficult dealing with William Ruto in 2022 because, circa 2020, Uhuru would be a lame-duck president and William Ruto would be the man with power. This is why, except for Gideon Moi, the top Kanu leadership could be with NASA.
In the Mt Kenya region, Jubilee would have to deal with rebellion in Nyambene and Tharaka, areas that feel Jubilee has neglected them, choosing instead to favour the Imenti.
Raila’s reception in Meru recently is something to worry Jubilee, and they must deal with it in the remaining short time, otherwise Raila Odinga will run away with some votes from Meru.
This is a big challenge to Jubilee because the Nyambene have a history of political rebellion that saw them elect Ford-Kenya and Kanu candidates when the Democratic Party of Mwai Kibaki was the undisputed choice of the Gema people.
Remember, in the election of 2013, they went against the Jubilee wave to elect two ODM MPs. Furthermore, this section of Meru has in the recent past shown evidence of open rebellion to the Jubilee leadership.
ALSO READ: Kapsoya ward candidate who lost three children launches his bid
And Jubilee’s problems in the Mt Kenya region do not end there, as there is palpable apathy caused by what residents say is lack of tangible benefit from their son.
The lack of interest is also due to the pinch felt by the kikuyu business class who, like everybody else, is suffering from a poorly performing economy.
This lack of interest was evident when the area, especially Nyeri, failed to register well in the last mass voter registration exercise early this year. Jubilee had to send very prominent personalities but the result was not impressive.
Single term
Jubilee also faces the possibility of being a one-term administration because of the challenge of getting the “top-up” votes they need from among the Luhya, Kamba, Kisii and Coastal communities. For Jubilee to win, they have to garner an average of 20 per cent from each of these communities, a clearly impossible task.
Going by what Jubilee got in these areas in the last election, and given that except for Kisii, the ground is much more anti-Jubilee this time than in 2013, it is difficult to see how Jubilee will garner the 20 per cent that they so much need from these areas (nothing is more laughable than the assertion from Jubilee that they have a higher penetration in these areas than in 2013).
Now, in the absence of these top-up votes, it is difficult to see how Jubilee can win this election especially because their fortunes have dwindled in North-Eastern and in Maasailand.
ALSO READ: Raila: We’re set to block poll rigging
In North-Eastern Province, NASA has a high penetration especially among the youths who seem fiercely anti-Jubilee. And in Maasailand, Jubilee has all but lost the entire Maa vote.
Bruised Jubilee
In the 2013 election, the Somali and Maasai gave Jubilee significant votes and it is therefore difficult to see how Jubilee will win this election if these votes are removed from its basket.
The picture that emerges from the above analysis is of a bruised Jubilee limping towards the election that’s only three weeks away.
Although it is still possible for Jubilee to come from behind and overtake NASA by exploiting NASA’s myriad blunders and poor finish, it is still, nevertheless, a herculean task given that the NASA magic is bringing more on board.
And Jubilee is not making things better for itself by ignoring significant segments of society such as the striking nurses and lecturers.
On the balance of probability, therefore, this election is for NASA to lose. And they can.
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Wishful thinking.
Pundit
I would have expected a more robust response with facts. You dislike when others dismiss your own MOAS as witchcraft but here you are...
Uhuru was in Lamu, gave money and food publicly as has now become normal for Jubilee but when he mounted the stage to call for Jubilee he got NASA. The same happened in Kilifi and Mombasa. He was humiliated in Kisii and Nyamira forcing the cancellation of many rallies and resorted to mass transportation of the "Red Army" an ever expanding standing army of youth being transported from one rally to another all over the country for 527 per day plus food.
So on the loss of TOP UP I say Manyora is spot on.
The question of Baringo and other RV counties mired in violence is obvious. First the Shoot to Kill order is resented by all the sides in the clashes. When you go to Pokot, the decision to by Ruto to be seen dishing out guns to their "enemies" has rubbed them the wrong way. It led to an urgent and rushed harambee to seek "defensive" weapons from outside Kenya.
Ruto is therefore toxic in Baringo on his own and add the supporters of Gideon in both Pokot and Baringo and you have a problem. I think Elgeyo Marakwet is gone too.
The idea that people would jeer Ruto but vote for Uhuru so Ruto - the man they hate - remains in office is a bit of a stretch. Unless you want to tell me that is possible and likely.
Where on earth does he get the idea that for Uhuru to win he needs 20% from 'Luhya,Kamba,Kisii, and Coastal communities'?
Manyora is a NASWA apologist and he really struggles to mask it
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You problem is comprehension. Simple things just don't seem to penetrate your thick skull. Let me try to help (amid the storm of stones you will throw):
Uhuru won in 2013 by getting:
1. GEMA
2. KAMATUSA vote
2. An average of 20% in each of the Top Up Counties
For this he managed a thin victory in the first round.
That, he says has changed.
Your beef is that Uhuru does not need the top up votes he got in 2013. Well then I really wonder if you ever read and comprehend anything. Go through Pundit's MOAS again and see how he arrives at 53% then re-read the shit you posted.
This guy is thick jameni! I wonder who used to write for him those theology posts he bored me with here at some point.
Where on earth does he get the idea that for Uhuru to win he needs 20% from 'Luhya,Kamba,Kisii, and Coastal communities'?
Manyora is a NASWA apologist and he really struggles to mask it
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What is there to critically examine - this is not MOAS - but wishful thinking - I need someone to put figures out there that come from somewhere - tribal arithmatics, key political players, opinion polls, crowds, social media, historical voting trends,name it
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You problem is comprehension. Simple things just don't seem to penetrate your thick skull. Let me try to help (amid the storm of stones you will throw):
Uhuru won in 2013 by getting:
1. GEMA
2. KAMATUSA vote
2. An average of 20% in each of the Top Up Counties
For this he managed a thin victory in the first round.
That, he says has changed.
Your beef is that Uhuru does not need the top up votes he got in 2013. Well then I really wonder if you ever read and comprehend anything. Go through Pundit's MOAS again and see how he arrives at 53% then re-read the shit you posted.
This guy is thick jameni! I wonder who used to write for him those theology posts he bored me with here at some point.
Where on earth does he get the idea that for Uhuru to win he needs 20% from 'Luhya,Kamba,Kisii, and Coastal communities'?
Manyora is a NASWA apologist and he really struggles to mask it
It's a lie that Uhuru garnered an average of 20% among Luhya,Kisii,Kamba and coastal 'communities' in 2013
Kamba communities (Machakos,Kitui,Makueni) gave 9%
Coastal communities (Kwale,Kilifi,Mombasa,Taita,Tana River,Lamu) gave 22%
Luhya (Busia,Bungoma,Vihiga,Kakamega) gave 5%
Kisii (Nyamira,Kisii) gave 28%
About 15% on average and not 20%. He's exaggerating Jubilee deficiencies in these areas
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I agree now that your wording of your opprobrium is much clearer.
However figures may be blown out of proportion but Uhuru did not have much of a majority votes that he could forgo any and stand strong. Before the Kuria case, he hung by 8000 votes. Now his 5% (66,000) in Western denied would have caused him ulcers.
If we go by Pundit's 100K (after Kuria - which I need to verify due to Pundit's recent tendency to fudge and misstate simple facts for political advantage) the Kamba vote is not that insignificant. The truth is without the top up votes, we could have had a runoff at best for Uhuru.
That said, I think Uhuru lost the 2013 elections badly and wouldn't have made it with Isaac Hassan.
One of my fantasies is to have Isaac Hassan in an NIS torture chamber having bicycle tyre tube rubber bands tied tightly around his balls as he begs to be allowed to reveal how he rigged.
It's a lie that Uhuru garnered an average of 20% among Luhya,Kisii,Kamba and coastal 'communities' in 2013
Kamba communities (Machakos,Kitui,Makueni) gave 9%
Coastal communities (Kwale,Kilifi,Mombasa,Taita,Tana River,Lamu) gave 22%
Luhya (Busia,Bungoma,Vihiga,Kakamega) gave 5%
Kisii (Nyamira,Kisii) gave 28%
About 15% on average and not 20%. He's exaggerating Jubilee deficiencies in these areas
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I agree now that your wording of your opprobrium is much clearer.
However figures may be blown out of proportion but Uhuru did not have much of a majority votes that he could forgo any and stand strong. Before the Kuria case, he hung by 8000 votes. Now his 5% (66,000) in Western denied would have caused him ulcers.
If we go by Pundit's 100K (after Kuria - which I need to verify due to Pundit's recent tendency to fudge and misstate simple facts for political advantage) the Kamba vote is not that insignificant. The truth is without the top up votes, we could have had a runoff at best for Uhuru.
That said, I think Uhuru lost the 2013 elections badly and wouldn't have made it with Isaac Hassan.
One of my fantasies is to have Isaac Hassan in an NIS torture chamber having bicycle tyre tube rubber bands tied tightly around his balls as he begs to be allowed to reveal how he rigged.
It's a lie that Uhuru garnered an average of 20% among Luhya,Kisii,Kamba and coastal 'communities' in 2013
Kamba communities (Machakos,Kitui,Makueni) gave 9%
Coastal communities (Kwale,Kilifi,Mombasa,Taita,Tana River,Lamu) gave 22%
Luhya (Busia,Bungoma,Vihiga,Kakamega) gave 5%
Kisii (Nyamira,Kisii) gave 28%
About 15% on average and not 20%. He's exaggerating Jubilee deficiencies in these areas
On exactly how far Uhuru exceeded 50% do the maths
Total presidential ballots cast- 12,330,028
Spoilt ballots-108,975
Valid votes - 12,221,053
Uhunye-6,173,433
His votes rose from 50.07% to 50.51%. 0.51% is 62,907.
So you're right; he Was daylights away from a runoff.
But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed
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As your own figures show a loss of 62K votes would have seen a runoff.
That said The NIS campaigned for Uhuru aggressively.
On exactly how far Uhuru exceeded 50% do the maths
Total presidential ballots cast- 12,330,028
Spoilt ballots-108,975
Valid votes - 12,221,053
Uhunye-6,173,433
His votes rose from 50.07% to 50.51%. 0.51% is 62,907.
So you're right; he Was daylights away from a runoff.
But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed
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Western was pretty bad after he betrayed MaDVD like a boy. I mean their biggest pointman was former Bundalangi Mp - Raphael Wanjala & Stanley Livondo :) - now oppinion polls are consistently (couple of both Infotrak & Ipsos) showing Uhuru at 30% of western - has strong backing of New Ford Kenya Grp (Bungoma-Tranzoia), some key men in Kakamega and Busia. I mean it's only in Vihiga where Jubilee are dead on arrival.
Coast was pretty bad - It was token Balala & Kambi :) doing all the bidding.
As for Isiolo, Marsabit & NEP - Raila had huge upper-hand - now ODM is completely totally out except maybe in Wajir & part of Garissa - it competition btw Jubilee & Frontier party& Kanu up there.
But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed
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As your own figures show a loss of 62K votes would have seen a runoff.
That said The NIS campaigned for Uhuru aggressively.
On exactly how far Uhuru exceeded 50% do the maths
Total presidential ballots cast- 12,330,028
Spoilt ballots-108,975
Valid votes - 12,221,053
Uhunye-6,173,433
His votes rose from 50.07% to 50.51%. 0.51% is 62,907.
So you're right; he Was daylights away from a runoff.
But he had no pointmant in Western and he never visited there. Coast campaigns were next to nonexistent. Ngilu delivered nothing in Ukambani so she won't be missed
ICC stigma cost them many votes as well
We can go back and forth on conspiracies
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I see nowhere in western where Uhuru will get votes. His Jirongo project to repeat the Mudavadi betrayal of cord hasn't taken off due to cash flow problems.
Musikari kombo is finally rotten. Lusaka is damaged goods. Eugene Wamalwa is a source ridicule wherever he appears. Washiali has finally given in after squandering all the cash and sticking Uhuru in Bukungu stadium in an empty Kakamega.
In Busia The SiGIRi bridge did jubilee in badly. Anyway the deal between Khayo, Teso, Samia and Marachi is intact. The bukusu will get one parliamentary seat while the Luo have to contend with Two MCAs in exchange for voting out Ababu - which they could still have done for free.
Bungoma considers itself the leader of western and the foundation of the second liberation. They sent Kibaki-Loving Mukhisa Kituyi home in ignominy. If one has followed history, Eugene is a beneficiary of the same arrangement. He has never won a seat in luhyaland only being rigged-in in 2007 and since then avoided humiliation by staying out.
I am sure Uhuru realized and trashed the plan to sponsor him for governorship in Nairobi. He like Mudavadi wants to be given things. If that's who pundit banks on for 30% I gladly pin up the moas for ridicule next month.
One thing I realize is that perhaps jubilee plans to give itself 30% through remote voting and all this is to immunize us ahead of the theft.
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I don't see much hope for Jubilee in Western either - Jubilee has pawns for foot soldiers. Unlike the Coast where title deeds have rained nothing significant has changed in Western to benefit Jubilee. Lusaka is no Mutua. Only Mudavadi's move to NASA founder which has sealed Jubilee's fate. Looks more like 3% from 5% last round.
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Uhuru in Taita Taveta county
(https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/20157174_1756143487747530_3613100435932573605_o.jpg?oh=981ece80d6947f3fff47b780568bc5e8&oe=5A0A3512)
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JUbilee will do well in western compared to 2013(5% - mostly Mt elgon & diaspora kikuyus). NFK brigade were rewarded while ANC (MaDVD) were rejected. I think Jubilee will get 1/3 Bukusu votes - Bunguma & Tranzoia- and the Wanga vote in Mumias (Mumias east, Navakholo, Matungu and possibly Mumias West). I don't think Ababu & Okemo will do much in Busia - Jubilee will also score zero in Vihiga after rejecting maDVD. Opinion polls have been showing Jubilee doing about 20-30% for quite some time. NASA would be buried if it got there....Jubilee will definitely improve their 5%.
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I see nowhere in western where Uhuru will get votes. His Jirongo project to repeat the Mudavadi betrayal of cord hasn't taken off due to cash flow problems.
Musikari kombo is finally rotten. Lusaka is damaged goods. Eugene Wamalwa is a source ridicule wherever he appears. Washiali has finally given in after squandering all the cash and sticking Uhuru in Bukungu stadium in an empty Kakamega.
In Busia The SiGIRi bridge did jubilee in badly. Anyway the deal between Khayo, Teso, Samia and Marachi is intact. The bukusu will get one parliamentary seat while the Luo have to contend with Two MCAs in exchange for voting out Ababu - which they could still have done for free.
Bungoma considers itself the leader of western and the foundation of the second liberation. They sent Kibaki-Loving Mukhisa Kituyi home in ignominy. If one has followed history, Eugene is a beneficiary of the same arrangement. He has never won a seat in luhyaland only being rigged-in in 2007 and since then avoided humiliation by staying out.
I am sure Uhuru realized and trashed the plan to sponsor him for governorship in Nairobi. He like Mudavadi wants to be given things. If that's who pundit banks on for 30% I gladly pin up the moas for ridicule next month.
One thing I realize is that perhaps jubilee plans to give itself 30% through remote voting and all this is to immunize us ahead of the theft.
Given Jubilee did NOTHING in 2013 other than pissing the region off over MaDVD, it's hard to see the rationale for a poorer performance now with all the henchmen(however fickle) and visits to the place.
Bear in mind Jubilee fared worst. Once you hit the bottom, you can only move up. All Jubilee needs is a better performance than in 2013, and they sure as hell are getting it