Nipate

Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Nefertiti on July 03, 2017, 09:23:28 PM

Title: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Nefertiti on July 03, 2017, 09:23:28 PM
To discuss the NASA manifesto.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 03, 2017, 09:32:31 PM
I doubt he can string a coherent arguments. He seem to specialize in destroying - not building.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RVtitem on July 03, 2017, 09:40:27 PM
What time?
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 03, 2017, 09:42:24 PM
He is on..says we are one election from civil strife.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 03, 2017, 09:55:10 PM
sounds geeky.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Georgesoros on July 03, 2017, 09:57:00 PM
Too much govt in Kenya.
I propose either cut salaries by half or cut MPIGs and MCAs by 40%.
Cant afford the current ineffective govt.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40483744
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Nefertiti on July 03, 2017, 09:58:36 PM
Ndii fool fighting Citizen's Jacky Maribe. Very antagonistic.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 03, 2017, 10:01:52 PM
No wonder the manifesto sound abstract and academic. You can see the fingerprints of this fool. The reporter is having problem squeezing a manifesto from Dr Ndoom.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 03, 2017, 10:11:36 PM
When he says NASA would shift from Euro type of borrowing to concessionary loans from the likes of world bank. How would he do that when Kenya can't qualify for such loans since we're now classified as emerging economy?
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Nefertiti on July 03, 2017, 10:12:00 PM
"I am a professor of macroeconomics...

This is a comedy - dude is schooling the poor lady on economics. Interview sounds like one of his newspaper stories full of jargon. Thought NASA were gonna send Madvd. At least he's likeable and has some EQ. Ndii has high iQ low EQ.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 03, 2017, 10:14:39 PM
He is stuck in 2002/03 - just like listening to Prof Nyongo - he doesn't know kenya have long move on.
When he says NASA would shift from Euro type of borrowing to concessionary loans from the likes of world bank. How would he do that when Kenya can't qualify for such loans since we're now classified as emerging economy?
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 03, 2017, 10:16:45 PM
He is now harassing the poor journalist  - everything is in the constitution :)
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 03, 2017, 10:24:48 PM
What an a.hole..the lady is glad it is all over. Mara I am economist. Then one time he is social scientist. Then everything is constitution except for violence they are planning in NASA :)
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 03, 2017, 10:34:50 PM
He also stated that government is borrowing more short term(issuing T-bills) instead of long term( treasury bonds), that's statistically incorrect  https://www.centralbank.go.ke/domestic-debt-intrument/ . I thought he'd have better answers on how to control debt and how to reinvigorate private sector. He couldn't help himself but focus on milk sector and how brookside has a monopoly. Which begs the question, Fresha Githunguri dairy which is owned by farmers how come they don't pay themselves ksh.60 per litre or even 50?
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RVtitem on July 03, 2017, 10:37:21 PM
Talk of a paid jubilee trojan. She epitomizes falling journalistic standards in Kenya.

The only thing she is good at is rolling her jubilee eyes. Its her only competence!
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: MOON Ki on July 04, 2017, 12:50:38 AM
When he says NASA would shift from Euro type of borrowing to concessionary loans from the likes of world bank. How would he do that when Kenya can't qualify for such loans since we're now classified as emerging economy?

Ndii is a highly regarded economist and has consulted for the World Bank.   So, until proven otherwise---e.g. through basic checks---perhaps we should assume that he knows what he's talking about.

As a matter of fact, Kenya (a) is still eligible for such concessionary loans and (b) has been getting plenty of it since whenever it was declared a "middle-income economy".   Here is one example from just a couple of months ago:

Quote
World Bank Approves $300 Million to Enhance Kenya’s Water Supply
...
The project to be implemented by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation will support Kenya’s Vision 2030’s goal to achieve accelerated and inclusive economic growth
...
The total cost of the project is $330 million, of which $263 million will be financed by an International Development Agency (IDA)* Scale-Up Facility credit and another $37 million IDA credit. The Government of Kenya will provide $30 million in support of the project.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/04/26/world-bank-approves-300-million-to-enhance-kenyas-water-supply
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Omollo on July 04, 2017, 01:22:58 AM
I am reading plenty of what amounts to hate against Dr. Ndii. It is shameful coming from such a site. I expect that kind of thing from the likes of Njamlik and other specialists in ad hominem

Well I guess I can play the game too...

1. Anne Kiguta (Jomo Gecaga's wife) came to the studio unprepared and with cheating notes prepared by Jubilee (who she was very protective about and wouldn't stomach them being named)
2. Unfortunately for her, she was handed a working document (obviously stolen by the NIS or whoever Gecaga got it from) which she tried to quote and was immediately set right - that was NOT the NASA manifesto. From then on, her cheating notes became a huge liability
3. She was clearly unprepared to ask any questions from her own knowledge of the manifesto and placed Ndii in that position any teacher loathes - when you have to correct the question being directed at you since it reveals and contains a lot of ignorance.
4. It became a regular lecture with Ndii educating her. She displayed ignorance of the constitution - something she should have mastered.

I believe towards the end she intended to incite opprobrium against Ndii by accusing him of sending an inflammatory tweet. Again that was quickly nipped in the bud when she was reminded that the "offending words" were published several months ago and that Ndii was simply quoting himself. Now any smart journalist would not have been caught with her nickers down on the background of the tweet if she had done her research

She became angry - which became a gift to Ndii who now enjoyed the freedom of the Citizen studio. 

We can discuss the specific answers but that is the account of what transpired.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Omollo on July 04, 2017, 01:24:13 AM
What an a.hole..the lady is glad it is all over. Mara I am economist. Then one time he is social scientist. Then everything is constitution except for violence they are planning in NASA :)
What is the difference? Educate me. I had no idea they were mutually exclusive.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on July 04, 2017, 01:25:18 AM
I doubt he can string a coherent arguments. He seem to specialize in destroying - not building.

That is funny.  Especially because I only discovered David Ndii when you were effusive in his praise a while back.  And you were right.  He knows his shit.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Omollo on July 04, 2017, 01:27:23 AM
He is now harassing the poor journalist  - everything is in the constitution :)
He meant the manifesto implements the constitution - something Jubilee has not done. For example the matter of land, will be addressed by implementing the constitution. I guess Jubilee expected him to say things they could use such as NASA will seize land in Laikipia etc. Obviously Kiguta had a mission to extract that from him and she failed.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Omollo on July 04, 2017, 01:30:25 AM
No wonder the manifesto sound abstract and academic. You can see the fingerprints of this fool. The reporter is having problem squeezing a manifesto from Dr Ndoom.

why would she squeeze one from Ndii? She said she had a copy? Or it wasn't the right one? :D
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 04, 2017, 08:16:45 AM
Ndii is a highly regarded economist and has consulted for the World Bank.   So, until proven otherwise---e.g. through basic checks---perhaps we should assume that he knows what he's talking about.

As a matter of fact, Kenya (a) is still eligible for such concessionary loans and (b) has been getting plenty of it since whenever it was declared a "middle-income economy".   Here is one example from just a couple of months ago:
If I heard him correctly he was talking about budget deficit financing. On some few projects yes kenya can qualify but not finance annual budget deficit of the tune of $7-8b. I was hoping to hear what he'd cut back to reduce borrowing from both local and international markets as he had suggested.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 04, 2017, 08:17:47 AM
And we were wondering where NASA manifesto is - I guess it still hold up in Dr NDII brain. We heard they released a policy document and the constitution implements everything. Pretty boring.

We want manifesto that is SMART - I don't have to be economist to understand what NASA wants to do - I want something I can hold them accountable 5yrs from now.

SMART criteria is pretty standard nowadays in any institution or organisation.
Specific – target a specific area for improvement.
Measurable – quantify or at least suggest an indicator of progress.
Assignable – specify who will do it.
Realistic – state what results can realistically be achieved, given available resources.
Time-related – specify when the result(s) can be achieved.

Jubilee gave us a SMART manifesto - NASA gave us a policy document (like vision 2030 is not enough).
why would she squeeze one from Ndii? She said she had a copy? Or it wasn't the right one? :D
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 04, 2017, 08:22:01 AM
Obviously they haven't put much thought into this. They need to tell us by what % they want to reduce & what mix they want to have if God forbid they got power. I mean UhuRuto for all the flak have raised debt from 45% to 48-49% of GDP - just mere 3-4% - and with that have delivered SGR. Jubilee have borrowed cheaper loans from EuroBond and Chinese loans are at about the same concessionary rates as WB. Look at SGR Loan - nearly half of it's concessionary and we won't even start paying until 5-10yrs from now - when SGR will be operational.
If I heard him correctly he was talking about budget deficit financing. On some few projects yes kenya can qualify but not finance annual budget deficit of the tune of $7-8b. I was hoping to hear what he'd cut back to reduce borrowing from both local and international markets as he had suggested.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 04, 2017, 08:25:06 AM
Pray tell us what makes you think we borrow at the same rate as TZ or UG. And that is what we are talking about. We can still borrow from WB - many near developed countries borrow from WB - but not same rate low-income indebted country like Tanzania borrows.
b]World Bank Approves $300 Million to Enhance Kenya’s Water Supply[/b]
...
The project to be implemented by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation will support Kenya’s Vision 2030’s goal to achieve accelerated and inclusive economic growth
...
The total cost of the project is $330 million, of which $263 million will be financed by an International Development Agency (IDA)* Scale-Up Facility credit and another $37 million IDA credit. The Government of Kenya will provide $30 million in support of the project.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/04/26/world-bank-approves-300-million-to-enhance-kenyas-water-supply
[/quote]
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 04, 2017, 09:54:36 AM
Ndii did so badly he'll soon be accused of sabotaging NASA to protect uthamaki :D :D
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Omollo on July 04, 2017, 10:53:03 AM
Ndii did so badly he'll soon be accused of sabotaging NASA to protect uthamaki :D :D
you got into a frenzy inside your own echo chamber which you share with Pundit, peddled falsehoods and are now drawing inevitable conclusions based on the same falsehoods.

There is something huko juu I need you to confirm right away. I'll just underline it.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Omollo on July 04, 2017, 10:57:21 AM
If I heard him correctly he was talking about budget deficit financing. On some few projects yes kenya can qualify but not finance annual budget deficit of the tune of $7-8b. I was hoping to hear what he'd cut back to reduce borrowing from both local and international markets as he had suggested.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 04, 2017, 11:55:56 AM
I am told he also had a pitiful interview with KTN the day before
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiv2pL8oO_UAhVILcAKHXarCvQQtwIIOTAF&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DKa0Xv_7RrEY&usg=AFQjCNE-_blLM1Js9a8JZdB-uB82BEXnEw
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on July 04, 2017, 02:12:22 PM
I watched the interview online.  The interviewer was clueless, impatient, angry...  I am surprised he didn't walk off during the interview.  An unbridgeable intellectual chasm was apparent from the get go.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Nefertiti on July 04, 2017, 02:56:23 PM
That's the point Windy, a typical Kenyan would have no clue of Ndii's plans due to the intellectual chasm. He must "unpack" policy into something a layman understands. Public debates at this campaign time just send a likeable chap like Madvd or Kalonzo - who can speak the language of the street.

I watched the interview online.  The interviewer was clueless, impatient, angry...  I am surprised he didn't walk off during the interview.  An unbridgeable intellectual chasm was apparent from the get go.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: Nefertiti on July 04, 2017, 03:00:12 PM
I used to support Ndii actually, because he debunked the voodoo of megaprojects which NASA could not. He opened up the debate. However, his audience is strictly the middle and upper class, he does not connect with Wanjiku at all. So he can draft a beautiful whitepaper but leave it to politicians to sell it.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: MOON Ki on July 04, 2017, 03:41:44 PM
If I heard him correctly he was talking about budget deficit financing. On some few projects yes kenya can qualify but not finance annual budget deficit of the tune of $7-8b. I was hoping to hear what he'd cut back to reduce borrowing from both local and international markets as he had suggested.

That seems to be a new angle.   Here is the statement I was responding to:

Quote
When he says NASA would shift from Euro type of borrowing to concessionary loans from the likes of world bank. How would he do that when Kenya can't qualify for such loans since we're now classified as emerging economy?

The normal reading of that would be that Kenya does not qualify for concessionary loans since we are now an "emerging economy".

Your modified explanation is also interesting.     So before Kenya became an "emerging economy", it could borrow "concessionary loans from the likes of world bank" for the purpose of financing "annual budget deficit of the tune of $7-8b", but now it cannot?
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: MOON Ki on July 04, 2017, 05:10:58 PM
Jubilee have borrowed cheaper loans from EuroBond and Chinese loans are at about the same concessionary rates as WB. Look at SGR Loan - nearly half of it's concessionary and we won't even start paying until 5-10yrs from now - when SGR will be operational.

Eurobond?    Are you kidding?    Eurobond is essentially a commerical loan.   Here is what the Treasury says on that:

Quote
5. What are the interest rates on the Sovereign Bond?

The interest rate on the five year bond is 5.875 percent and 6.875 percent for ten year tenor.

Now, please take a look at Public Debt Register, here: http://www.treasury.go.ke/publications/pdmo/category/41-external-public-debt-register.html

What you will notice is that almost all of the large number of IDA loans have an interest rate of 0.75%, with something three or four at an interest rate of 1%.

The Chinese loans shown there (at concessional rates) are all at 2%, which is at least double the rate for the World Bank loans.   The Chinese loans also have shorter repayment periods.

For the SGR:

(a) $1.6 billion is at concessional interest rates of 2%
(b) $2.0 billion is at commercial interest rates: "6-month LIBOR + 3.6%".   

-We don't now what the LIBOR will be when repayment starts, but we can get an idea from the fact  that it is around 1.4 now.    And even if we assume that LIBOR will be at an improbable 0%, the Chinese loan is still way more costly--

(c) And then there's the real killer: on the commercial part of the loan, insurance at a rate of 6.9%. Well above the interest rates.   And no grace period on that---it had to be paid upfront.   (There are no insurance premiums for World Bank etc loans.)
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 04, 2017, 05:15:55 PM
If I heard him correctly he was talking about budget deficit financing. On some few projects yes kenya can qualify but not finance annual budget deficit of the tune of $7-8b. I was hoping to hear what he'd cut back to reduce borrowing from both local and international markets as he had suggested.

That seems to be a new angle.   Here is the statement I was responding to:

Quote
When he says NASA would shift from Euro type of borrowing to concessionary loans from the likes of world bank. How would he do that when Kenya can't qualify for such loans since we're now classified as emerging economy?

The normal reading of that would be that Kenya does not qualify for concessionary loans since we are now an "emerging economy".

Your modified explanation is also interesting.     So before Kenya became an "emerging economy", it could borrow "concessionary loans from the likes of world bank" for the purpose of financing "annual budget deficit of the tune of $7-8b", but now it cannot?
Before rebasing Kenya budget was below $10b now its $20b Kra collecting about $14b . When budget was smaller we could borrow from world bank and plug our deficit with minimum borrowing in the debt market. World bank concessionary loans total about $20b to be divided among 100plus countries. Kenya by itself needs $7b or so, so I wonder how Ndii can argue that we can plug our budget by getting concessionary loans from world bank and IMF. If he were to argue about slashing the budget that's would be one thing.  But as far as I understand the manifesto they'd even spend more.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: MOON Ki on July 04, 2017, 05:26:11 PM
Before rebasing Kenya budget was below $10b now its $20b Kra collecting about $14b . When budget was smaller we could borrow from world bank and plug our deficit with minimum borrowing in the debt market. World bank concessionary loans total about $20b to be divided among 100plus countries. Kenya by itself needs $7b or so, so I wonder how Ndii can argue that we can plug our budget by getting concessionary loans from world bank and IMF. If he were to argue about slashing the budget that's would be one thing.  But as far as I understand the manifesto they'd even spend more.

All that might be so.   But my real comment was on this claim:

Quote
Kenya can't qualify for such loans since we're now classified as emerging economy. 

That---the basis on which Ndii was getting a beating---is a statement to the effect that our new "emerging economy" status makes us ineligible ("can't qualify") for such loans.   What you are now saying is that we can't get that amount simply because the World Bank doesn't have enough money to lend for such purposes.    That seems to be an entirely different statement.

As to what Ndii might have been talking about, I note that your previous statement starts with this qualifier:

Quote
If I heard him correctly ...
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 04, 2017, 05:55:51 PM
Before rebasing Kenya budget was below $10b now its $20b Kra collecting about $14b . When budget was smaller we could borrow from world bank and plug our deficit with minimum borrowing in the debt market. World bank concessionary loans total about $20b to be divided among 100plus countries. Kenya by itself needs $7b or so, so I wonder how Ndii can argue that we can plug our budget by getting concessionary loans from world bank and IMF. If he were to argue about slashing the budget that's would be one thing.  But as far as I understand the manifesto they'd even spend more.

All that might be so.   But my real comment was on this claim:

Quote
Kenya can't qualify for such loans since we're now classified as emerging economy. 

That---the basis on which Ndii was getting a beating---is a statement to the effect that our new "emerging economy" status makes us ineligible ("can't qualify") for such loans.   What you are now saying is that we can't get that amount simply because the World Bank doesn't have enough money to lend for such purposes.    That seems to be an entirely different statement.

As to what Ndii might have been talking about, I note that your previous statement starts with this qualifier:

Quote
If I heard him correctly ...
yes we qualify for concession loans. But the amount we qualify for can't plug our deficit to shift from borrowing from local and international debt markets.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: MOON Ki on July 04, 2017, 09:59:07 PM
yes we qualify for concession loans. But the amount we qualify for can't plug our deficit to shift from borrowing from local and international debt markets.

I'm glad we've taken care of that part, and Ndii is now to be beaten up on quite different grounds.   So, then.   To the new stuff:

Would  Ndii know how much IDA money exists out there and how many countries are able to partake?   (By the way the number of countries is 77, not "100 plus" you mentioned.)  Would he believe, and did he suggest, that Kenya's annual budget deficit (which you state is $7 billion to $8 billion) can be plugged through concessional loans?

I listened to the relevant of the interview, and my understanding is that he was talking about a reduction in commercial (and especially local)  borrowing.   Can such borrowing be reduced by instead taking concessional loans?    I believe so.

Earlier you also  had this:

Quote
If he were to argue about slashing the budget that's would be one thing.


At one point he does state that the government should "reduce its appetite for money".    I interpreted that to mean a reduction in government expenditure, and, therefore, the budget ... (relative to revenue).   How did you interpret it?

An aside: The interviewer-lady has problems that go far beyond a lack of understanding of even the most basic aspects of economics or the inability to follow a straightforward line of reasoning. It appears that she does not even understand basic, common phrases in colloquial English, contrary to what one would expect of an interviewer for this type of show.

For example:   

At one point Ndii says that the government should "stop digging the [debt] hole".    The interview-lady asks if that means "cancelling existing debt agreements"!!!!! Ndii then has to spend some time explaining that, no, existing debts must be paid, but ....  And so on, and so forth.  Where on earth did they find this "blonde" lady?

Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 04, 2017, 10:47:11 PM
Ohoo so someone think treasury is by-passing some concessional loan from IMF/WB for expensive loan.Why would it do that. I mean apart from conditionalities & slow pace of the so called concessional loan - kenya clearly is mature enough to tap into the international debt market and eurobond was watershed moment for us.We don't yet have debt problem..at 50% debt/GDP...we can still borrow more.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: MOON Ki on July 04, 2017, 11:47:27 PM
Ohoo so someone think treasury is by-passing some concessional loan from IMF/WB for expensive loan.Why would it do that.

That's actually not very difficult to understand.   Kenya is a nation of eaters. Here is something that you wrote on another thread:

Quote
WSR/Uhuru simply replaced Wanjigis and are getting 5-10% from Chinese contractors.
http://www.nipate.org/index.php?topic=4613.0

For the eaters, WB and IMF, who tend to ask about where the money actually goes, are "bad for business".  But local commercial borrowing, Eurobond, Kung Fu loans .... those are serious gravy trains.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 04, 2017, 11:51:14 PM
yes we qualify for concession loans. But the amount we qualify for can't plug our deficit to shift from borrowing from local and international debt markets.

I'm glad we've taken care of that part, and Ndii is now to be beaten up on quite different grounds.   So, then.   To the new stuff:

Would  Ndii know how much IDA money exists out there and how many countries are able to partake?   (By the way the number of countries is 77, not "100 plus" you mentioned.)  Would he believe, and did he suggest, that Kenya's annual budget deficit (which you state is $7 billion to $8 billion) can be plugged through concessional loans?

I listened to the relevant of the interview, and my understanding is that he was talking about a reduction in commercial (and especially local)  borrowing.   Can such borrowing be reduced by instead taking concessional loans?    I believe so.

Earlier you also  had this:

Quote
If he were to argue about slashing the budget that's would be one thing.


At one point he does state that the government should "reduce its appetite for money".    I interpreted that to mean a reduction in government expenditure, and, therefore, the budget ... (relative to revenue).   How did you interpret it?

An aside: The interviewer-lady has problems that go far beyond a lack of understanding of even the most basic aspects of economics or the inability to follow a straightforward line of reasoning. It appears that she does not even understand basic, common phrases in colloquial English, contrary to what one would expect of an interviewer for this type of show.

For example:   

At one point Ndii says that the government should "stop digging the [debt] hole".    The interview-lady asks if that means "cancelling existing debt agreements"!!!!! Ndii then has to spend some time explaining that, no, existing debts must be paid, but ....  And so on, and so forth.  Where on earth did they find this "blonde" lady?
The total commercial debt if this figures from central bank are correct is only $110m for this year https://www.centralbank.go.ke/domestic-debt-intrument/ that's not alot and any savings to concessionary loans would be much . If I understood nasa manifesto its more expansionary especially on the social aspects. So that seems like contradiction on borrowing reduction.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: MOON Ki on July 05, 2017, 01:03:45 AM
The total commercial debt if this figures from central bank are correct is only $110m for this year https://www.centralbank.go.ke/domestic-debt-intrument/ that's not alot and any savings to concessionary loans would be much . If I understood nasa manifesto its more expansionary especially on the social aspects. So that seems like contradiction on borrowing reduction.

First, I should note that Ndii referred to "local borrowing" in that context and did not use the word "commercial"; that was my word.    I point that out so that we don't get into trivial side-issues about what is from commercial banks and what comes from elsewhere.   So let's focus on the "local borrowing" that concerns Ndii.

While in China (a "favourite" lender, it seems) in May, I came across this startling article (written in May). [I will explain the context later, but it does not bode well for some Kenyan's view of "easy and generous Kung Fu].    According to that:

Quote
Kenya's domestic debt rose by 1.1 billion U.S. dollars in two months, gravitating closer to 20 billion U.S. dollars as the government intensifies domestic borrowing ahead of the close of the fiscal year.
...
Last month, Kenya raised 318 million dollars from two ten-year bonds worth 291 million dollars it floated to cover end of fiscal year deficit.
...
However, besides the T-bonds, uptake of Treasury bills has equally increased with the CBK last week accepting 320 million dollars from the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bill.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/09/c_136269043.htm

Perhaps they are all off by a factor of 10 or so? On the basis of some figures that  I saw elsewhere at the time, I saw no reason to not believe them?

But let's look at the figures you have provided at that link there.    Perhaps I'm reading them incorrectly, or I have missed something.   But looking at the figures from January to now, I come up with a difference of about Sh. 151 billion, which is currently about $1.45 billion .... which is a long way from $110 million. 

While we try to figure out the figures, may I again make this observation: Ndii is, by international standards, regarded (as far as I can tell) as a top-notch economist.   Let's not be hasty with statements to the effect that he is an economic idiot and doesn't know what he's talking about ... with his detractors contributing little jokes,  like 

Quote
Jubilee have borrowed cheaper loans from EuroBond and Chinese loans are at about the same concessionary rates as WB.

On the other stuff:

Quote
If I understood nasa manifesto its more expansionary especially on the social aspects. So that seems like contradiction on borrowing reduction.

I haven't looked at the "manifesto", so I can't comment from that basis.   But I can comment on the basis of simple logic:  A call for reduction in borrowing does not necessarily mean that all expenditure must be reduced.   It is possible to have an "overall reduction" even with increases in some components of the budget.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: hk on July 05, 2017, 09:23:28 AM
The total commercial debt if this figures from central bank are correct is only $110m for this year https://www.centralbank.go.ke/domestic-debt-intrument/ that's not alot and any savings to concessionary loans would be much . If I understood nasa manifesto its more expansionary especially on the social aspects. So that seems like contradiction on borrowing reduction.

First, I should note that Ndii referred to "local borrowing" in that context and did not use the word "commercial"; that was my word.    I point that out so that we don't get into trivial side-issues about what is from commercial banks and what comes from elsewhere.   So let's focus on the "local borrowing" that concerns Ndii.

While in China (a "favourite" lender, it seems) in May, I came across this startling article (written in May). [I will explain the context later, but it does not bode well for some Kenyan's view of "easy and generous Kung Fu].    According to that:

Quote
Kenya's domestic debt rose by 1.1 billion U.S. dollars in two months, gravitating closer to 20 billion U.S. dollars as the government intensifies domestic borrowing ahead of the close of the fiscal year.
...
Last month, Kenya raised 318 million dollars from two ten-year bonds worth 291 million dollars it floated to cover end of fiscal year deficit.
...
However, besides the T-bonds, uptake of Treasury bills has equally increased with the CBK last week accepting 320 million dollars from the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bill.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/09/c_136269043.htm

Perhaps they are all off by a factor of 10 or so? On the basis of some figures that  I saw elsewhere at the time, I saw no reason to not believe them?

But let's look at the figures you have provided at that link there.    Perhaps I'm reading them incorrectly, or I have missed something.   But looking at the figures from January to now, I come up with a difference of about Sh. 151 billion, which is currently about $1.45 billion .... which is a long way from $110 million. 

While we try to figure out the figures, may I again make this observation: Ndii is, by international standards, regarded (as far as I can tell) as a top-notch economist.   Let's not be hasty with statements to the effect that he is an economic idiot and doesn't know what he's talking about ... with his detractors contributing little jokes,  like 

Quote
Jubilee have borrowed cheaper loans from EuroBond and Chinese loans are at about the same concessionary rates as WB.

On the other stuff:

Quote
If I understood nasa manifesto its more expansionary especially on the social aspects. So that seems like contradiction on borrowing reduction.

I haven't looked at the "manifesto", so I can't comment from that basis.   But I can comment on the basis of simple logic:  A call for reduction in borrowing does not necessarily mean that all expenditure must be reduced.   It is possible to have an "overall reduction" even with increases in some components of the budget.
The $110m was total commercial debt for this year.  Ndii is right about we're borrowing too much in the short term and not as much longterm .The ratio of tbills to bonds is now 1:2 and preferably that should be 1:5. This has effect on cost of interest rates cause tbills are more expensive to rollover.
Title: Re: Ndii interview on Citizen shortly
Post by: RV Pundit on July 05, 2017, 09:49:25 AM
And main problem that Treasury is grappling with and which Dr Ndii doesn't have solution for - is New Constitution - created more stress for National Treasury by having lots more folks & institution drawing money from Consolidated Fund - and then you have counties who need money - without question.
-Basically we are borrowing lot more for short term because treasury has to meet obligation it cannot ran away.
1) Has to repay debt every month - last I checked it was 35-50B per month
2) Unfunded pension - where pension are paid directly from Treasury - instead of contributory scheme (this been on the works forever - hopefully will go live this year).
3) Counties & Institution drawing lot more money directly from Consolidated Fund
4) Salaries for GoK employees.

I doubt Treasury has suddenly dumb prudential management of public finance and borrowed short-term to finance anything not critical.

We have added with 2010 constitution lot more critical stuff to treasury plate.

The $110m was total commercial debt for this year.  Ndii is right about we're borrowing too much in the short term and not as much longterm .The ratio of tbills to bonds is now 1:2 and preferably that should be 1:5. This has effect on cost of interest rates cause tbills are more expensive to rollover.