In the past few month the Kenyan government has been on a charm offensive, spending a fortune traversing African countries to lobby for the election of its Foreign Minister Amina Mohamed to become the next AU commission chairperson. The vigorous campaign was informed by the tough odds against her. Many Kenyans have questioned the rational for the government to spend so much resources for her candidature. while speaking to Journalist recently Dr. Fred Matiangi the Cabinet Secretary of Education who led Aminas campaign team during the shuttle diplomacy explained that, However experts have been more open with the reasons of her candidature explaining that, this is a strategy by President Uhuru Kenyatta to try and grow his clout and influence across Africa so as he can push his personal interest like the call for mass withdrawal by African states from the ICC.
Business Chronicles spoke to experts and came up with the following reasons as to why Amina Mohamed will not succeed in her quest to succeed Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma
Traditionally, the post has always rotated between Anglophone and Francophone countries. It is noteworthy that the outgoing head Dr. Dlamini-Zuma is an Anglophone from South Africa, and her predecessor was a Francophone Mr. Jean Ping from Gabon. So it is widely expected that within the AU circles that the French speaking candidates have a head-start on this factor. The other significant factor against Ms Amina is the fact that French speaking nations are very many compared to English speaking countries and this factor is further complicated by a well known fact that they always vote uniformly and in solidarity. Rarely do the francophone fragment in their voting. This factor is well exemplified in other spheres e.g. in continental football maters where their candidates and hosting rights are always determined by them unless where rotational is done.
Gender is also a factor that might limit her chances the outgoing leader is a woman and it may be argued that it is a time for Men this is again complicated with the fact that the other female candidate is also from and English speaking country. Ms. Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi – Botswana’s foreign minister. However her greatest challenger who is also viewed as a front runner by many is non other than Mr. Abdoulaye Bathily, a Former UN special envoy to Central African Republic and Senegalese environment minister. He boasts of an impressive CV in international relations and diplomacy just like Ms. Amina Mohamed.
One factor that factor that may seem insignificant might turn out to be an advantage or a disadvantage to her is her religion. It is admirable and quite uncommon to see a Muslim woman rise up to that level. This might make her appeal to some however, it might also be her greatest undoing due to the well documented fact that Muslim men and even women tend to be disdainful to women who are ambitious and dare to seek position of power and influence.
QuoteIn the past few month the Kenyan government has been on a charm offensive, spending a fortune traversing African countries to lobby for the election of its Foreign Minister Amina Mohamed to become the next AU commission chairperson. The vigorous campaign was informed by the tough odds against her. Many Kenyans have questioned the rational for the government to spend so much resources for her candidature. while speaking to Journalist recently Dr. Fred Matiangi the Cabinet Secretary of Education who led Aminas campaign team during the shuttle diplomacy explained that, However experts have been more open with the reasons of her candidature explaining that, this is a strategy by President Uhuru Kenyatta to try and grow his clout and influence across Africa so as he can push his personal interest like the call for mass withdrawal by African states from the ICC.
Business Chronicles spoke to experts and came up with the following reasons as to why Amina Mohamed will not succeed in her quest to succeed Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma
Traditionally, the post has always rotated between Anglophone and Francophone countries. It is noteworthy that the outgoing head Dr. Dlamini-Zuma is an Anglophone from South Africa, and her predecessor was a Francophone Mr. Jean Ping from Gabon. So it is widely expected that within the AU circles that the French speaking candidates have a head-start on this factor. The other significant factor against Ms Amina is the fact that French speaking nations are very many compared to English speaking countries and this factor is further complicated by a well known fact that they always vote uniformly and in solidarity. Rarely do the francophone fragment in their voting. This factor is well exemplified in other spheres e.g. in continental football maters where their candidates and hosting rights are always determined by them unless where rotational is done.
Gender is also a factor that might limit her chances the outgoing leader is a woman and it may be argued that it is a time for Men this is again complicated with the fact that the other female candidate is also from and English speaking country. Ms. Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi – Botswana’s foreign minister. However her greatest challenger who is also viewed as a front runner by many is non other than Mr. Abdoulaye Bathily, a Former UN special envoy to Central African Republic and Senegalese environment minister. He boasts of an impressive CV in international relations and diplomacy just like Ms. Amina Mohamed.
One factor that factor that may seem insignificant might turn out to be an advantage or a disadvantage to her is her religion. It is admirable and quite uncommon to see a Muslim woman rise up to that level. This might make her appeal to some however, it might also be her greatest undoing due to the well documented fact that Muslim men and even women tend to be disdainful to women who are ambitious and dare to seek position of power and influence.
The Jubilants didn't think they needed to put in serious work. They overestimate Kenya's clout outside East Africa.
Top #AU official says claims by #Kenya that #Uganda + other neighbors dumped candidate "irresponsible&unfortunate" as vote was secret ballot
— Emmanuel Igunza (@EmmanuelIgunza) January 31, 2017
Kenyan #Jubilee journalists were booked at Sheraton Hotel waiting for Amina win; many of them are too affected to write to us what happened
— D I K E M B E (@Disembe) January 31, 2017
Amb Amina Mohamed speaks out after AUC loss. Your thoughts on the AUC chair vote? Share on #TheBigQuestion w/@HusseinMohamedg ; SMS 22422 pic.twitter.com/I3yQmwv4sT
— Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) January 31, 2017
Duale blames Kofi Annan for Amina's failure. How long shall we wait till this sociopath is admitted at Mathare Mental Hospital #AminaSpeaks
— Levi Sitati (@sitati) January 31, 2017
She thinks Kenya's neighbors should be re-evaluated. Whatever the fuck that means. How about withdrawing from AU Amina?
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Amina-mohamed-AU-commission-chairperson-election/1056-3794262-j92vdez/index.html (http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Amina-mohamed-AU-commission-chairperson-election/1056-3794262-j92vdez/index.html)
Kudos to Amina for coming close and Kenya under Jubilee is starting to get it's foreign policy in place & throw it weight around. Kenya is largest non-mineral economy in Africa. It should make it count.
She thinks Kenya's neighbors should be re-evaluated. Whatever the fuck that means. How about withdrawing from AU Amina?
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Amina-mohamed-AU-commission-chairperson-election/1056-3794262-j92vdez/index.html (http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Amina-mohamed-AU-commission-chairperson-election/1056-3794262-j92vdez/index.html)
It's "our man" mentality taken to the international stage. Her view seems to be that East African nations should have supported her candidacy, because "she is from our area", regardless of any objective views that might favour the other candidate.
Her emotional reaction is very interesting: “Are we seen as a friend or a threat?” are pretty much the same words she used i speech at the ICC ASP 2015, a speech that many found off-putting. To the lady, if people don't support you or agree with your views, then it must be because they consider you an enemy or a threat. Not quite what one would expect of a diplomat. (Her boss too seems unable to put diplomacy and reality above crude emotion, as shown by his reaction to the UN's firing of an incompetent Kenyan in South Sudan, but in that case there is at least the excuse of poor advice from Mr. J. Walker.)
And then we have comedians like Duale. After all the endless talk of "Africans are fed up, mass withdrawal from ICC is coming, Kenya is leading the process, ... ", the man now claims that these proceedings were influenced by a few people who support for the ICC!
The arrogance, insults, and other funny statements coming from Amina, Duale, etc. only serve to confirm to those who voted against her that they were right. Very unusual for this sort of thing, and some people/countries might not forget if this particular government comes up again at such high levels.
Also, part of what happened here is simply that Amina was misled, by "national arrogance", to aim too high. Kenya has "traditionally" had a sense of "we are superior and know better" with respect to other East African nations. When Uhuru and Ruto got Amina to "lead" other African countries into making all sorts of useless noises---there has been no mass withdrawal, and the three announced "withdrawals" seem to have died quietly---the DDD (Dynamic Digital Duo) and their lady friend (LF) suddenly saw themselves as some sort of continental leaders ... a position from which the DDD could reward the LF for her "hard work" w.r.t. the ICC. "Naturally", the wake-up slap did not go down too well.