Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: MOON Ki on July 03, 2016, 07:06:43 AM
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You have several "political" threads going, and I'd rather not replicate this all over the place. Here are some "issues" r.e. your man:
** More democracy at lowest level would put him in good stead to complain about rigging at higher levels. (Even in Nyanza people have had to pay for going along with rigged ODM primaries.)
** More democracy and openness at the middle level would help with "management" problems. (Current "SG problems" can be traced back to the MIB stunt.)
** Less of the huge (and exhilarating) "We love you to death, Jakom!" rallies and more of the dull, hard grunt-work of getting people to register and to get out to vote.
* Fewer complaints about Jubilee buying CORD people. Jubilee is not in it for lovey-dovey: they are doing what one what can expect in a place like Kenya, and one should not imagine that complaints will change them. (Get better people, or get a better plan.)
* Other parties in CORD will not keep supporting Jakom until the day comes when all his opposition has disappeared or become appropriately compliant. Don't waste any more time.
-- The ** points are paramount. They also have other implications, e.g. unhelpfully excessive excitement r.e. the chicken-eating IEBC.
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MK
You make very good points and I can say I agree with all of them with a few variations to detail and context.
For starters, political parties are by nature private entities at least according the US supreme court (as opposed to the wonderful topsyturvy Kenyan jurisprudence). Thus the reasons why person A would be denied a certificate and see it handed to person B are complex. I still feel parties should continue to exercise that discretionary option but with some transparency. Instead of cooking figures to achieve that, the party should be open about the real reasons why a candidate is denied the certificate.
You will obviously disagree and link it as you have to lack of democratic space. I would say in defense that it was not a unique ODM / CORD issue but it involved all political parties even TNA / URP. Because it involves repudiating the popular will of the people, the instrument should be used sparingly. You are not doubt aware of the pains the republican party is going through with Trump and the various ideas floated to stop someone who won but will cause the party to lose.
MIB: I still believe Ababu Namwamba should not have been elected SG. The party knew he had been sponsored to take the seat and decided to give it to him all the same. I doubt that I can be objective as concerns Ababu. I had a thread at the other place about it then that has become even more relevant today. Parties should not allow people who do not share or believe in their fundamentals within their midst. So I agree that the events of MIB led to this but only in as much as they failed to stop Ababu from being elected.
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The rallies are important in mobilizing popular support. However I agree that more money should be directed at voter registration and education. CORD is lagging behind in that.
On buying: CORD has of now near unlimited funds to match Jubilee. I too wonder why these funds are not being deployed to keep our MPs and Senators inside the tent.
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For starters, political parties are by nature private entities at least according the US supreme court (as opposed to the wonderful topsyturvy Kenyan jurisprudence). Thus the reasons why person A would be denied a certificate and see it handed to person B are complex. I still feel parties should continue to exercise that discretionary option but with some transparency. Instead of cooking figures to achieve that, the party should be open about the real reasons why a candidate is denied the certificate.
You will obviously disagree and link it as you have to lack of democratic space. I would say in defense that it was not a unique ODM / CORD issue but it involved all political parties even TNA / URP. Because it involves repudiating the popular will of the people, the instrument should be used sparingly. You are not doubt aware of the pains the republican party is going through with Trump and the various ideas floated to stop someone who won but will cause the party to lose.
That's a rather convoluted justification of Raila's mischief. Yes, parties are free to hand out certificates as they please, etc. etc. etc.
Anyways ... Let's for a minute leave other parties and Trump out of it. Let's work with a concrete example: Please explain to me the rationale for rigging out the guy who won the primaries for the governorship of Siaya. What are the "complex" reasons that led to that?
MIB: I still believe Ababu Namwamba should not have been elected SG. The party knew he had been sponsored to take the seat and decided to give it to him all the same. I doubt that I can be objective as concerns Ababu. I had a thread at the other place about it then that has become even more relevant today. Parties should not allow people who do not share or believe in their fundamentals within their midst. So I agree that the events of MIB led to this but only in as much as they failed to stop Ababu from being elected.
MIB was an interesting circus. First, we were told that it had been done by Jubilee moles and all would be revealed. That was forgotten. Then we were told that there would be new elections in 90 days. That too was soon forgotten. And so on.
On Namwamba, if, as you say, "the party knew he had been sponsored to take the seat and decided to give it to him all the same", then the party is in even worse shape than thought and needs new leadership. Those complaining about him also ought to stop; if they "knew", what did they expect?
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Raila is not ODM. So there may be something called "Raila-mischief" but it has nothing to do with what you describe. The Siaya events led to a by-election which was won by the man fronted by the party. Thus the initial view of the so called real winner was vindicated. TNA sponsored candidates in ODM primaries. One of them later petitioned and caused a by election.
ODM is the most democratic party in Kenya. I understand that you want this enhanced and no doubt it will. I just hope other political parties will follow suit by holding direct popular elections. Name any other party that has done that or as frequently as ODM has done.
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Raila is not ODM. So there may be something called "Raila-mischief" but it has nothing to do with what you describe. The Siaya events led to a by-election which was won by the man fronted by the party. Thus the initial view of the so called real winner was vindicated. TNA sponsored candidates in ODM primaries. One of them later petitioned and caused a by election.
I can see that you just want to play with words; that's OK, but, for the sake of your party, I hope you internally acknowledge the real issues. Actually, ODM is pretty much just Raila these days; so is CORD. Even if we disagree on that, the high-level riggings, MIB, and other suchlike mischief obviously have Raila's blessings and sometimes are instigated by him. What Raila really needs is good, honest, objective advice, not clever spin.
On Siaya, I was hoping to read your "complex-issues" explanation of why Oduol was rigged out; I take it none will be forthcoming.
ODM is the most democratic party in Kenya. I understand that you want this enhanced and no doubt it will. I just hope other political parties will follow suit by holding direct popular elections. Name any other party that has done that or as frequently as ODM has done.
We should leave other parties out of it. I wrote specifically about Raila/ODM/CORD, and specifically to you, because you have been busy here peddling that lot. If someone does the same with respect to TNA, Jubilee, URP, XYZ, I will write on that as appropriate. Also:
* Popular elections are not worth much if they are rigged.
* Your side should try to behave for its own good; so it is self-defeating to misbehave on the grounds that others too are dong it.
* CORD's main competition does not seem to suffer from the little circuses that keep CORD busy; right now they already know their flag-bearers for 2017 and are busy tightening things while CORD's leadership is engaged in bizarre quarrels.
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The rallies are important in mobilizing popular support. However I agree that more money should be directed at voter registration and education. CORD is lagging behind in that.
Generally, elections are not necessarily won by the most popular person; they are won by the person who gets the most people to vote (after first getting them to register). In Kenya, rigging also helps a great deal.
If you really want to help your side, may I suggest a couple of starting points:
* Every time you and your buddies take photographs of CORD crowds, post them on social media, ... stop and send a note to the CORD leadership: "Do you know how what proportion of this crowd consists of registered voters?"
* All these guys apparently love to dance for the crowds. Suggest to them that during their gyrations they should stop at intervals and say a few things about the importance of voter registration.
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I do not quite understand why ODM alone should be the focus of your negative attention in matters in which it comes out better than all the others. All the other parties have never held elections - even shambolic ones. Most are still operating with interim officials not sanctioned by the current membership. Yet you pick on the one that has held grassroots elections on a regular basis for your most severe tongue lashing. It sounds totally unfair.
I can see that you just want to play with words; that's OK, but, for the sake of your party, I hope you internally acknowledge the real issues. Actually, ODM is pretty much just Raila these days; so is CORD. Even if we disagree on that, the high-level riggings, MIB, and other suchlike mischief obviously have Raila's blessings and sometimes are instigated by him. What Raila really needs is good, honest, objective advice, not clever spin.
On Siaya, I was hoping to read your "complex-issues" explanation of why Oduol was rigged out; I take it none will be forthcoming.
In principle then all political parties in Kenya belong to some big name somewhere. Some have actually been bought with hard cash and hence are owned goods and chattels of the said individuals. ODM on the other hand was formed out of common interests and remains so. A party liked TNA belongs to Uhuru.
We should leave other parties out of it. I wrote specifically about Raila/ODM/CORD, and specifically to you, because you have been busy here peddling that lot. If someone does the same with respect to TNA, Jubilee, URP, XYZ, I will write on that as appropriate. Also:
If we are discussing ODM in Kenya and are suggesting it falls below existing standards, it is only fair to shine the same light on other parties. Upon what yardstick then are you measuring ODM? Is it standardized? How are the other parties scoring? This is akin to a teacher punishing the best performer more harshly than the poorest mshika mkia.
On Oduor, I do not recollect any evidence of any rigging. I believe you are a victim of media sensationalism. His love for the media caught up with him when photos of his battered wife emerged. Anyway, he threw caution to the winds and openly ran on a TNA ticket. I am glad the wife beater was rejected by the people of Siaya.
* Popular elections are not worth much if they are rigged.
I am not aware of any rigged elections, are you?
* Your side should try to behave for its own good; so it is self-defeating to misbehave on the grounds that others too are dong it.
ODM has not tried to copy other parties. If we were to do that there would have been no grassroots elections or National Elections.
* CORD's main competition does not seem to suffer from the little circuses that keep CORD busy; right now they already know their flag-bearers for 2017 and are busy tightening things while CORD's leadership is engaged in bizarre quarrels.
1. What little circuses are these that are unique to CORD? There have been leadership wrangles in all Jubilee parties. Have you heard of Chama Cha Mashinani? Did you not see KANU fielding a candidate in Kericho in a fratricidal war? Did not Jubilee lose an MCA to Mashinani?
2. How was the Jubilee candidate get known? Was there a delegates conference which CORD has not yet summoned? Were there grassroots elections? Caucuses? How was he elected? In fact there is no party that has conducted any nomination. Yet these same parties are using their surrogates in CORD to call for a candidate in the hope that the losers will bolt to Jubilee.
3. There is no quarrel in CORD. We have two disgruntled persons who went missing when the party needed them most and are hiding their shame by trying to reward their masters with a manufactured crisis that isn't picking traction. That said there is party on earth that does not have internal disagreements. Perhaps if you allow me to write more about other parties I would give you examples.
4. You refer to Jubilee as tightening things. I disagree. Jubilee is in a mess. It is trying to create JAP to ensure a 6 piece suit. That won't work and in fact we foresee getting a few CORD MPs and governors over there based on the fallout we expect. We did get some MPs from Meru and Nakuru.
5. Jubilee is no party. It is now run by the Provincial Administration, CID and NSIS with government funds. Come September 2017 and it will die of natural causes when they all get booted out of office. CORD / ODM is fighting the government and not a political party. The arrests, harassment and intimidation is being carried out by these state agencies and bodies. Therefore our operations have been adopted to cater for that. You saw me kicked out of choo.com on the orders of the state (IP banned and any new handles deleted minutes after registration). A further attempt made to hack my computer and the arrest of a man whose phone I used to logon to social media. We have a desperate regime in down fall and panic mode.
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CORD has been mobilizing members to register. We are hampered by lack of ID cards.
The IEBC has been discriminating when it comes to voter registration with more resources being deployed in Central than other areas of the country. Hence we are demanding the reform of that body. We are also moving to widen what qualifies as ID card and whether it is even necessary for elections. Why have the BMR and then deny someone the right to vote? Other countries have used ID cards issued by the Electoral body. E.g Sierra Leone.
I see you have some beef with political rallies. Well, like I say, you may need to stock up on aspirins because we shall be having a lot of mega rallies. We shall take to marching not just having rallies. We may have a long march from Kisumu, Mombasa, Mandera Bungoma, Busia, etc all heading to Nairobi a week before elections. You have never seen anything like that... The Grand March to State House!
Generally, elections are not necessarily won by the most popular person; they are won by the person who gets the most people to vote (after first getting them to register). In Kenya, rigging also helps a great deal.
If you really want to help your side, may I suggest a couple of starting points:
* Every time you and your buddies take photographs of CORD crowds, post them on social media, ... stop and send a note to the CORD leadership: "Do you know how what proportion of this crowd consists of registered voters?"
* All these guys apparently love to dance for the crowds. Suggest to them that during their gyrations they should stop at intervals and say a few things about the importance of voter registration.
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I see you have some beef with political rallies. Well, like I say, you may need to stock up on aspirins because we shall be having a lot of mega rallies. We shall take to marching not just having rallies. We may have a long march from Kisumu, Mombasa, Mandera Bungoma, Busia, etc all heading to Nairobi a week before elections. You have never seen anything like that... The Grand March to State House!
No, I have no "beef" with the rallies; they can be entertaining, and they keep busy some youth who would otherwise be committing petty crimes elsewhere. And I wish you well in your "Grand March". Just don't forget how elections are won.
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I do not quite understand why ODM alone should be the focus of your negative attention in matters in which it comes out better than all the others.
All the other parties have never held elections - even shambolic ones. Most are still operating with interim officials not sanctioned by the current membership. Yet you pick on the one that has held grassroots elections on a regular basis for your most severe tongue lashing. It sounds totally unfair.
Please go back and read this:
I wrote specifically about Raila/ODM/CORD, and specifically to you, because you have been busy here peddling that lot. If someone does the same with respect to TNA, Jubilee, URP, XYZ, I will write on that as appropriate.
In addition, I believe that a reformed Raila+CORD could be a helpful replacement for Jubilee/JAP. That is why I did not merely criticize: I also offered a couple of useful suggestions for you and your friends.
On Oduol in Siaya, please review the facts.
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ODM being the most democratic party is funny. URP/TNA ran very clean nomination. Something that Raila's party just cannot muster. It down to one thing..Raila loves to interfere with election. If he had stayed out like Ruto and Uhuru did..and let his close alies fall aside...he won't have all the many dead wood in the ODM.
ODM is the least democratic party and is going down.
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Pundit
How is it "funny"?
When did TNA and URP hold grassroots elections? When was Ole Sakaja elected? TNA and URP are operating with un-elected and interim officials, having never held elections. A democratic party is first and foremost measured by its internal democracy. That is measured by the ability to allow members to elect those who will run the affairs of the party. If the parties held no elections, how democratic then was the nominations? The fruit of a contaminated tree are equally contaminated. The officials had no mandate to lead the nominations (if any)
And now you are on Nominations: Who elected Uhuru the party flag bearer? Was it done by elected delegates? Who were the other candidates? I could ask the same of URP which by the way is still run by unelected "Founders" and has never seen any free democratic elections.
ODM on the other hand has held multiple elections since its formation. Even when Ruto was in he served on the basis of having been elected.
The irony of it all is that Ruto and Mudavadi complained of lack of internal democracy as they left ODM only to go and launch briefcase parties with no elections and no machinery.
ODM being the most democratic party is funny. URP/TNA ran very clean nomination. Something that Raila's party just cannot muster. It down to one thing..Raila loves to interfere with election. If he had stayed out like Ruto and Uhuru did..and let his close alies fall aside...he won't have all the many dead wood in the ODM.
ODM is the least democratic party and is going down.
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No, I have no "beef" with the rallies; they can be entertaining, and they keep busy some youth who would otherwise be committing petty crimes elsewhere. And I wish you well in your "Grand March". Just don't forget how elections are won.
I disagree. I get all the dog-whistle insinuations against rallies. You would prefer Raila go to each and every home of the 7 - 8 million voters he needs to win and urge them to register. Well, MK, we are short of time and we prefer the methods that have worked. They worked in 2007 when ODM won; They worked in 2013 before Uhuru got IEBC help to rig himself in. This time round those methods will work wonders.
In fact where do you get the idea that our voters do not register. Explain the discrepancy between the registered voters totals in Central between 2007 and 2013. Was there an epidemic over there that was not publicized?
Then we have such a huge rise from the modest normal numbers in 2002 to the crazy figures of 2007.
Inflation of voter registers is not the same thing as TNA organizing better. Are you in effect saying we ij ODM should emulate that? And find a way of inflating numbers so that we to have 2 million reserve votes for deployment? That means you have not fully understood why we want reforms in IEBC.
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I have fully responded to all that below. I see nothing that requires a review.
I do not quite understand why ODM alone should be the focus of your negative attention in matters in which it comes out better than all the others.
All the other parties have never held elections - even shambolic ones. Most are still operating with interim officials not sanctioned by the current membership. Yet you pick on the one that has held grassroots elections on a regular basis for your most severe tongue lashing. It sounds totally unfair.
Please go back and read this:
I wrote specifically about Raila/ODM/CORD, and specifically to you, because you have been busy here peddling that lot. If someone does the same with respect to TNA, Jubilee, URP, XYZ, I will write on that as appropriate.
In addition, I believe that a reformed Raila+CORD could be a helpful replacement for Jubilee/JAP. That is why I did not merely criticize: I also offered a couple of useful suggestions for you and your friends.
On Oduol in Siaya, please review the facts.
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Thanks for the updates Simanova.
For ODM it's never been about power for the sake of power. Sure they can sit back and play the same game TNA/URP are playing.. underhanded deals, assigning officials, pay the asians, the ECK, the courts, ask for international help, no grassroots initiatives just like Kibaki and his NO election campaign strategy who still got away with stealing the presidency.
For ODM, they have a higher calling. They need to stay true to that. A change which involves all Kenyans, like a baby kicking to get out of it's mummy's tummy. But not just that, a higher calling that'll one day save the world.
What we are witnessing is historical and have been for the past decade. A mother pushing persistently against all odds, all corruption, all threats, all risks, all evil, ferociously pushing against the old guard, not falling for the ruse, not succumbing to the easy road, and someday whether anyone supports it or not, this baby, so preciously protected, nurtured with transparency, integrity, grassroots support, respect for all tribes, respect for humanity, is going to be the revolution.
These campaigns are more than just about winning or losing the elections.
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I disagree. I get all the dog-whistle insinuations against rallies. You would prefer Raila go to each and every home of the 7 - 8 million voters he needs to win and urge them to register. Well, MK, we are short of time and we prefer the methods that have worked. They worked in 2007 when ODM won; They worked in 2013 before Uhuru got IEBC help to rig himself in. This time round those methods will work wonders.
Wonders are always good. But if I may ask: will there be another voter registration exercise?
In fact where do you get the idea that our voters do not register.
Perhaps I am wrong. Since you seem to be possessed of the facts, let us start there:
(1) How many eligible voters are to be found in CORD strongholds?
(2) Of those, how many are registered?
Also, earlier you wrote that
However I agree that more money should be directed at voter registration and education. CORD is lagging behind in that.
Where did you get that "idea", which could have helped me with the one whose source you have inquired about? (That was just a couple of days ago. Is CORD no longer "lagging behind"?)
Explain the discrepancy between the registered voters totals in Central between 2007 and 2013. Was there an epidemic over there that was not publicized?
I can't comment in detail, since I don't know the magnitude of the "discrepancy". But possibilities that come to mind are that some people who did not register in 2007 did so in 2013, some people who were not of age in 2007 came of age by 2013, some people who were chucked out of the Rift Valley during the PEV ended up in Central, etc.
Inflation of voter registers is not the same thing as TNA organizing better. Are you in effect saying we ij ODM should emulate that? And find a way of inflating numbers so that we to have 2 million reserve votes for deployment? That means you have not fully understood why we want reforms in IEBC.
We will have a better discussion if you provide the numbers involved in this "inflation", where they are located, etc.
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Thanks for the updates Simanova.
For ODM it's never been about power for the sake of power. Sure they can sit back and play the same game TNA/URP are playing.. underhanded deals, assigning officials, pay the asians, the ECK, the courts, ask for international help, no grassroots initiatives just like Kibaki and his NO election campaign strategy who still got away with stealing the presidency.
For ODM, they have a higher calling. They need to stay true to that. A change which involves all Kenyans, like a baby kicking to get out of it's mummy's tummy. But not just that, a higher calling that'll one day save the world.
What we are witnessing is historical and have been for the past decade. A mother pushing persistently against all odds, all corruption, all threats, all risks, all evil, ferociously pushing against the old guard, not falling for the ruse, not succumbing to the easy road, and someday whether anyone supports it or not, this baby, so preciously protected, nurtured with transparency, integrity, grassroots support, respect for all tribes, respect for humanity, is going to be the revolution.
These campaigns are more than just about winning or losing the elections.
veritas,
I could be forgiven for thinking you are talking about Thirdway. Thirdway is idealist and hopeless. No fault of their own. Choosing between Jubilant and CORD is a matter of tribal loyalty. There is no higher calling behind the decision. That is Kenya today. It shows little sign of changing in the foreseeable future. I hope I am mistaken though.
CORD is a marriage convenience for purposes of capturing power. Change? What change do they propose? The faces and tribes of the looters?
To put it another way, Kalonzo will not hesitate to bolt from CORD if he is promised Jubilant backing for high office. Same thing with Raila. The clean Kenyan politician, you can count on one hand. Raila is not one of those.
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MoonKi
I think you are refusing to grant CORD its dues while lambasting it. CORD has been on the streets to force the recalcitrant and anti-people Uhuru government to agree to talks to reform the IEBC. It is only with a new IEBC free of the current contaminated individuals (among other things) that can produce reliable statistics. Note the following:
1. The IEBC is by law required to provide for continuous registration. That has not been happening uniformly and we now want it changed so all Kenyans have equal access
2. We are pushing for all obstacles to registration to be removed (ID cards, etc)
3. CORD areas have not received as much in resources as say, Central Province. For example, there were more BVR kits in Central than Western and Nyanza (CORD strongholds). This was widely reported in the media. It is that we want corrected.
4. The statistics on existing and potential voters comes from the current IEBC. While we know from the ground that there are many youth that are not registered, using or citing IEBC data is not advisable. Your question will have to await a new commission in place after the ongoing talks.
Wonders are always good. But if I may ask: will there be another voter registration exercise?
In fact where do you get the idea that our voters do not register.
There is no genetic predisposition among CORD voters not to register. The notion that they somehow "refuse" to register is wrong and should be stopped. Gerrymander is a well known tactic of those in power. Like I stated, the number of voters in Central rose dramatically in 2007 from a low of 2002. Then in 2013 the number of voters actually fell. It is definitely rising in 2017 unless stopped.
The reason is simple: Kibaki inflated it in 2007. In 2013 the 2 million votes were spread around the country and transferred at will to avoid the over 100% scandal in Nyeri.
Perhaps I am wrong. Since you seem to be possessed of the facts, let us start there:
(1) How many eligible voters are to be found in CORD strongholds?
(2) Of those, how many are registered?
Addressed in the opening statement (above)
Also, earlier you wrote that:However I agree that more money should be directed at voter registration and education. CORD is lagging behind in that.
Where did you get that "idea", which could have helped me with the one whose source you have inquired about? (That was just a couple of days ago. Is CORD no longer "lagging behind"?)
Let us agree on one thing: CORD does not register voters. That remains the work of the IEBC. CORD can mobilize voters to register. I stated that we have not done as much. What I did not say is that other parties have also not done better. What we have is the IEBC and the agencies charged with issuance of ID cards being used by Uhuru Kenyatta to tilt the balance. The IEBC is responsible for voter education however we have seen only mediocrity in the past. My reference is not only on this cycle or election but for all time. Kenyans need to be educated so ^for example they reject electoral bribery, whether dressed as Projects or "Kutenga pesa" or harambee.
Explain the discrepancy between the registered voters totals in Central between 2007 and 2013. Was there an epidemic over there that was not publicized?
I can't comment in detail, since I don't know the magnitude of the "discrepancy". But possibilities that come to mind are that some people who did not register in 2007 did so in 2013, some people who were not of age in 2007 came of age by 2013, some people who were chucked out of the Rift Valley during the PEV ended up in Central, etc. We will have a better discussion if you provide the numbers involved in this "inflation", where they are located, etc.
The data for 2007 appears to have miraculously vanished from the net since the last time I referred to it. But you can have the 2002 figures. These rise dramatically in 2007 before dropping in 2013. Once I bring out the other figures you will notice that your speculative explanation above is best contrary.
2002 - CENTRAL PROVINCE
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Registered voters: 1,566,019
Votes counted: 910,454 (58.1)
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The only marriage of convenience for capturing power is the product of a donkey and a horse called Jubilee. I was told the offspring cannot give birth to any sort of animal.
Ruto has nothing in common with Uhuru other than the two being war lords that slaughtered each others people.
Thanks for the updates Simanova.
For ODM it's never been about power for the sake of power. Sure they can sit back and play the same game TNA/URP are playing.. underhanded deals, assigning officials, pay the asians, the ECK, the courts, ask for international help, no grassroots initiatives just like Kibaki and his NO election campaign strategy who still got away with stealing the presidency.
For ODM, they have a higher calling. They need to stay true to that. A change which involves all Kenyans, like a baby kicking to get out of it's mummy's tummy. But not just that, a higher calling that'll one day save the world.
What we are witnessing is historical and have been for the past decade. A mother pushing persistently against all odds, all corruption, all threats, all risks, all evil, ferociously pushing against the old guard, not falling for the ruse, not succumbing to the easy road, and someday whether anyone supports it or not, this baby, so preciously protected, nurtured with transparency, integrity, grassroots support, respect for all tribes, respect for humanity, is going to be the revolution.
These campaigns are more than just about winning or losing the elections.
veritas,
I could be forgiven for thinking you are talking about Thirdway. Thirdway is idealist and hopeless. No fault of their own. Choosing between Jubilant and CORD is a matter of tribal loyalty. There is no higher calling behind the decision. That is Kenya today. It shows little sign of changing in the foreseeable future. I hope I am mistaken though.
CORD is a marriage convenience for purposes of capturing power. Change? What change do they propose? The faces and tribes of the looters?
To put it another way, Kalonzo will not hesitate to bolt from CORD if he is promised Jubilant backing for high office. Same thing with Raila. The clean Kenyan politician, you can count on one hand. Raila is not one of those.
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Thanks for the updates Simanova.
For ODM it's never been about power for the sake of power. Sure they can sit back and play the same game TNA/URP are playing.. underhanded deals, assigning officials, pay the asians, the ECK, the courts, ask for international help, no grassroots initiatives just like Kibaki and his NO election campaign strategy who still got away with stealing the presidency.
For ODM, they have a higher calling. They need to stay true to that. A change which involves all Kenyans, like a baby kicking to get out of it's mummy's tummy. But not just that, a higher calling that'll one day save the world.
What we are witnessing is historical and have been for the past decade. A mother pushing persistently against all odds, all corruption, all threats, all risks, all evil, ferociously pushing against the old guard, not falling for the ruse, not succumbing to the easy road, and someday whether anyone supports it or not, this baby, so preciously protected, nurtured with transparency, integrity, grassroots support, respect for all tribes, respect for humanity, is going to be the revolution.
These campaigns are more than just about winning or losing the elections.
Thank you veritas. I am glad that the struggle of ODM / CORD is now reaching further and wider. We are glad that many governments including regional ones have now seen the folly of the Uhuru regime and would like to see the back of it even faster than us.
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I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857
Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.
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I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857
Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.
And this helps how?
I am also surprised that you and your CORD friends appear to have been relying on Nipate.com as your database for the storage of such information; other than the obvious risks, one would expect you to have such data readily available elsewhere. At any rate, given that you do not hand any numbers to hand, what is the basis of the contradictory claims/agreements that you have made?
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MoonKi
I think you are refusing to grant CORD its dues while lambasting it.
And what might those dues be?
Note the following:
1. The IEBC is by law required to provide for continuous registration. That has not been happening uniformly and we now want it changed so all Kenyans have equal access
2. We are pushing for all obstacles to registration to be removed (ID cards, etc)
3. CORD areas have not received as much in resources as say, Central Province. For example, there were more BVR kits in Central than Western and Nyanza (CORD strongholds). This was widely reported in the media. It is that we want corrected.
4. The statistics on existing and potential voters comes from the current IEBC. While we know from the ground that there are many youth that are not registered, using or citing IEBC data is not advisable. Your question will have to await a new commission in place after the ongoing talks.
This is an unhelpfully long story. I simply asked for concrete numbers on which we could base an objective discussion. If you do not care for IEBC data---and we need not get into what data would be used in a court case---then whose data are you using to justify your claims? What exactly are the data anyway? (Weka hapa hapa.) And what are sources, the reliability, ... ?
(By the way, CORD should have been working on some of the things in your list, instead of devoting so much resources to the funny and inevitably futile---right from the git-go---OKOA business.)
There is no genetic predisposition among CORD voters not to register. The notion that they somehow "refuse" to register is wrong and should be stopped. Gerrymander is a well known tactic of those in power. Like I stated, the number of voters in Central rose dramatically in 2007 from a low of 2002. Then in 2013 the number of voters actually fell. It is definitely rising in 2017 unless stopped.
The reason is simple: Kibaki inflated it in 2007. In 2013 the 2 million votes were spread around the country and transferred at will to avoid the over 100% scandal in Nyeri.
What is the source of the numbers on which you base the above claims? Wait! The numbers have disappeared. Right?
Let us agree on one thing: CORD does not register voters. That remains the work of the IEBC. CORD can mobilize voters to register. I stated that we have not done as much. What I did not say is that other parties have also not done better. What we have is the IEBC and the agencies charged with issuance of ID cards being used by Uhuru Kenyatta to tilt the balance. The IEBC is responsible for voter education however we have seen only mediocrity in the past. My reference is not only on this cycle or election but for all time. Kenyans need to be educated so ^for example they reject electoral bribery, whether dressed as Projects or "Kutenga pesa" or harambee.
OK, let CORD continue to fiddle and wait for IEBC to educate and register its supporters. On red: Once again, you are spinning yourself into confusion. You stated that CORD is "lagging behind". That implies that somebody else is doing much better.
The data for 2007 appears to have miraculously vanished from the net since the last time I referred to it. But you can have the 2002 figures.
Figures from 15 years ago do not help when it is the 2007, 2013, and, especially, current figures that I am interested in. It really doesn't help to have all sorts of claims bandied about only to be told that "the numbers have disappeared" when something resembling solid evidence is asked for.
But let's, for a minute, focus on the 2017 elections. Once again:
1) How many eligible voters are to be found in CORD strongholds?
(2) Of those, how many are registered?
Do you know? Does anyone in the CORD leadership know? I have noted your statement that you "know from the ground" .... Well, what figures do you have "from the ground"?
If I were a CORD strategist, I'd also be interested in other figures, of which I have already given an example: of those who show up to enjoy the Dancing CORD leadership, how many are registered to vote?
(Note: A properly organized CORD should not require the IEBC in order to determine the levels of registration among its supporters.)
Listen (so to speak, in a manner of speaking ...), I admire your devotion to CORD and its "cause", which, as Terminator has noted, is slightly different from the Sunday Morning Sermon---live on the internet! no need to even get out of bed!---by Pastor Veritas. But you lot should be wary of the dangers of self-deception, which is the inevitable end-product of poorly-thought-out spin. The crowds show up for the performances, and one is sure that things are solid "on the ground", but on voting day?
(http://www.the-star.co.ke/sites/default/files/styles/teaser_small/public/articles/2016/07/04/1379817.jpg?itok=cG2hiJ2w)
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veritas,
I could be forgiven for thinking you are talking about Thirdway. Thirdway is idealist and hopeless. No fault of their own. Choosing between Jubilant and CORD is a matter of tribal loyalty. There is no higher calling behind the decision. That is Kenya today. It shows little sign of changing in the foreseeable future. I hope I am mistaken though.
CORD is a marriage convenience for purposes of capturing power. Change? What change do they propose? The faces and tribes of the looters?
To put it another way, Kalonzo will not hesitate to bolt from CORD if he is promised Jubilant backing for high office. Same thing with Raila. The clean Kenyan politician, you can count on one hand. Raila is not one of those.
That sums it quite well. The "noble" ideas have little to do with reality. In fact, it is possible that CORD could rouse its slumbering base by clearly indicating that it is their turn to eat---which it actually is---and this is how .... What's more, that could easily be confirmed by "eating patterns" over the last few decades. Wake up, vote, and get your share ... or get f**ked some more!
Kalonzo? Smooth in a slithery way. Just think of the possible post-PEV arrangements. He is the sort of person of whom they say: "Don't let the nice smile during the handshake fool you; focus on how many fingers you have left at the end".
Raila: His enormous sacrifices, especially against Moi, are known all over the place. Still, one cannot dine out indefinitely on a heroic past. Nor is it reasonable to expect that aging revolutionaries will keep breathing out fire until the end of times. The man now needs at least two things: (a) good, solid advisors, and (b) a willingness to listen to them. On the present path, his story is ultimately a tragedy of the "coulda-shoulda-mighta" variation: could have been this, should have been that, might have been the other ... but, alas, never was.
Today's Kenya is all just a matter of which thieves are on top, what they steal, how the loot gets distributed ... and that is how it will be for quite some time. When people are ready---really, really ready----for a change, there will be a change. Until then, most Kenyans will continue to sink into the shit. (Sometimes literally .... see other thread.)
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Do not be in an hurry, the figures are available. I will present the same to you. Then I would hope you can explain the astronomical rise of voters in Central in 2007 (in effect nearly doubling 2002 figure. Followed by a decline in 2013. I would then expect you to stand by your claim that all the rises and falls originate from the very hard work of mobilizing voter registration. One thing I will agree with you no doubt is that such rises were never done at public rallies! In fact I doubt if they were public at all!
Once you provide me (and CORD) with the method used, be sure I will use all my limited influence to draw the attention of CORD leadership to that approach. I am most keen on knowing just how Kibaki managed to nearly doubled the number of registered voters in 2007. Those 2007 figures!!!
I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857
Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.
And this helps how?
I am also surprised that you and your CORD friends appear to have been relying on Nipate.com as your database for the storage of such information; other than the obvious risks, one would expect you to have such data readily available elsewhere. At any rate, given that you do not hand any numbers to hand, what is the basis of the contradictory claims/agreements that you have made?
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Do not be in an hurry, the figures are available. I will present the same to you.
I'm in no hurry. Please present.
Then I would hope you can explain the astronomical rise of voters in Central in 2007 (in effect nearly doubling 2002 figure. Followed by a decline in 2013.
Why on earth do you have such hopes? All I did was to ask for the figures so that we cold have an objective discussion. Instead of hoping for fantastic explanations, why not supply the figures and let the discussions begin.
I would then expect you to stand by your claim that all the rises and falls originate from the very hard work of mobilizing voter registration.
You lost me there. Again. Where, when, and in what form were such claims made?
One thing I will agree with you no doubt is that such rises were never done at public rallies! In fact I doubt if they were public at all!
Which rises are those? The ones based on the lost Nipate.com figures? Once again, I urge you to provide some figures---with bases, sources, etc.---before we get so worked up.
Once you provide me (and CORD) with the method used, be sure I will use all my limited influence to draw the attention of CORD leadership to that approach. I am most keen on knowing just how Kibaki managed to nearly doubled the number of registered voters in 2007. Those 2007 figures!!!
This really funny! Good one! I ask for concrete figures, you say they are lost, and then you turn around and ask me to provide the figures that I asked for! Very cheeky.
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MoonKI
You mock CORD's rallies and insinuate that the leadership is inept and unable to mobilize voters.
You do not provide any concrete evidence of any other political party that has done what you claim CORD is failing to do.
There is first of no political party in those areas since no elections have ever taken place. There can be no party if there are no members. We know this from the KANU (the party Uhuru used to lead) days.
My position is that Uhuru and company are using state resources and agencies to inflate voter lists and that there is no party machinery to mobilize voter registration. You are in effect saying CORD should do what Jubilee is doing while attributing state activities to Jubilee. Well, it is not possible. Proper figures will only be available when we have a credible commission
Its a pity you are asking me. Did not the IEBC give some figures of their "targets" in different areas? You can obtain the crap from their website in pdf. I simply do not attach much to the rubbish and will not be quoting it.
Figures from 15 years ago do not help when it is the 2007, 2013, and, especially, current figures that I am interested in.
I do not seek to "help". My intention is to prove that the voter figures in Central which you and others try to imply are a result of non-public rally mobilization are actually fake and cheap inflation.
Well, what we are looking for are the voter registration figures for 2007. They were all over the internet and now they are not. If this is untrue then kindly find and post them. I have posted for 2002 and have the 2013 ready. I would remind you the reason for seeking the figures is to show that in 2002 the number of Central voters was nearly half what it became in 2007. The 2013 figures will show a DECLINE in the numbers.
Now it is essential to have them so you can answer some simple questions like why there was a decline. I note your earlier speculative explanation (without the all important 2007 figures) in which you suggested a natural increase. That is how all normal people assume it would be. However the missing figures say a different story as you read in the discussion at nipate.com
OKOA was one way of working on the said list. CORD was therefore attempting to work on the list. When the IEBC frustrated the referendum, CORD switched gears and decided that the IEBC thieves were indeed the obstacles that had to go. Rallies and demos have almost achieved that MoonKi.
(Note: A properly organized CORD should not require the IEBC in order to determine the levels of registration among its supporters.)
BTW what do you hope to achieve by obtaining the number of eligible voters in CORD strongholds? I may have lost track of what it is that is so important about it. Hopefully once we have forced Jubilee to agree to a new commission, I should provide you with reliable data and hopefully the reason why you need the info will be revealed!
[/quote]
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I would then expect you to stand by your claim that all the rises and falls originate from the very hard work of mobilizing voter registration.
You lost me there. Again. Where, when, and in what form were such claims made?
** Less of the huge (and exhilarating) "We love you to death, Jakom!" rallies and more of the dull, hard grunt-work of getting people to register and to get out to vote.
One thing I will agree with you no doubt is that such rises were never done at public rallies! In fact I doubt if they were public at all!
Which rises are those? The ones based on the lost Nipate.com figures? Once again, I urge you to provide some figures---with bases, sources, etc.---before we get so worked up.
Once you provide me (and CORD) with the method used, be sure I will use all my limited influence to draw the attention of CORD leadership to that approach. I am most keen on knowing just how Kibaki managed to nearly doubled the number of registered voters in 2007. Those 2007 figures!!!
This really funny! Good one! I ask for concrete figures, you say they are lost, and then you turn around and ask me to provide the figures that I asked for! Very cheeky.
Not really, when you denigrate the legitimate statement that figures were available and were posted and now are completely vanished, I am bound to pursue it in other ways. The 2007 voter registration details were / are public information whose non appearance should draw your concern not mockery.
You make a great mockery of the fact that i linked to nipate.com and irritatingly suggest that CORD and I keep our information there. Yet you know that is not the case, If I were going to suggest something existed and it has disappeared, it helps to prove the disappearance at least. You have decided to completely and deliberately misunderstand the reasons for citing nipate.com and turned it to ridicule.
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Listen (so to speak, in a manner of speaking ...), I admire your devotion to CORD and its "cause", which, as Terminator has noted, is slightly different from the Sunday Morning Sermon---live on the internet! no need to even get out of bed!---by Pastor Veritas. But you lot should be wary of the dangers of self-deception, which is the inevitable end-product of poorly-thought-out spin. The crowds show up for the performances, and one is sure that things are solid "on the ground", but on voting day?
We can never agree on rallies. I believe they are essential to political mobilization. Rallies are part and parcel of Kenya's political culture.
I stand to be corrected but nowhere have i ever suggested that all those who attend rallies are supporters of the convening party. Crowds come for multiple reasons and yes entertainment is one of them. Is there anything wrong? Has CORD demanded an electoral victory on the basis of rally attendance?
That kind of thinking is found within the deepest of Jubilee thoughts. It is the reason they ban rallies and unleash trained murderers to beat, maim and kill citizens who come to these rallies to get information, meet candidates and potential candidates so that they can make a choice.
I prefer rallies to TVs, Radios and other gadgets of the wealthy.
Still on rallies, how many did Ruto hold in Kericho during the by election?
It may help you to recall that CORD has won by elections in Kajiado and Malindi. Votes were counted and rallies had been held.
BTW Uhuru and Ruto have held lots of rallies around the country. Did you say if the other side were to do it...? Does it mean you are unaware of these rallies and public bribery meetings called "harambees" by Arap Mashamba?
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Simanova:
Before I get into the stuff below, I should let you know that I'm actually on your side. A little story about a little story:
A few years ago, I watched a movie, set in a small Russian town, about some small-time Russian hoodlums. The hoodlums kept complaining that the authorities were always harassing "honest thieves" (themselves) while "criminal bandits" were getting away with everything. According to the former, the differences between the two types were that the "honest thieves" had a sense of moderation, an understanding of the circumstances of the robbed, ...., an applied moral philosophy of theft, if you will. Thus, for example, if "criminal bandits" came upon a little old lady who had just withdrawn her monthly pension, they would beat the crap out of her and grab everything; the "honest thieves", on the other hand, would not indulge in such gratuitous violence and would leave the old lady with at least enough money for bus fare home and a phone call for some help. "Honest thieves" kept the family (wife and kids) aware of, and sometimes involved in, their "business" activities, and major "achievements" were openly celebrated with the local community; "criminal bandits" on the other hand slunk about under the cover of darkness and mystery. Etc. Etc. Etc.
Not too long ago, CJ Mutunga stated that Kenya's is a bandit economy. He was quite right. What's more, that's not about to change anytime soon. Kenyans don't want change badly enough. Yes, they will complain endlessly, but what really bothers them is that it's those other people and their "our man" who's doing all the stealing. The theft itself is never a real issue. And the aforementioned Russians would agree with that---that it need not, of itself, be an issue---but criminal banditry is quite another matter. In these sorts of environment ...
Given all that ... Kenya being Kenya and Kenyans being Kenyans and evolution working at an awfully slow pace:
What I think CORD can bring---and which is why I would support it---is a government of "honest thieves", in place of the present one of "criminal bandits". Theft in Kenya seems inevitable, and all seem to be into it or eagerly wanting in. But does it have to be so crude? Take, for example, the NYS heist. It would be one thing to be told that some clever hacker got into the "theft-proof" computer system and did x, y, and z. But "someone stole the CEO's password and used it in the middle of the night to add 0s"? That's unnecessarily and thoughtlessly insulting to the public and is the sort of thing that separates "honest thieves" from "criminal bandits".
(Terminator is right, in the essence of his comments, but he needs to appreciate the differences in types of robbers.)
Of course, to form a government, CORD would have to ....
Now, back to your story:
You mock CORD's rallies and insinuate that the leadership is inept and unable to mobilize voters.
You do not provide any concrete evidence of any other political party that has done what you claim CORD is failing to do.
Where did I mock them? I simply pointed out the facts. The "other political party" would be Jubilee in 2013. You didn't see the evidence? CORD needs to stop wailing endlessly about "we wuz robbed!" and learn something from having been out-organized.
My position is that Uhuru and company are using state resources and agencies to inflate voter lists and that there is no party machinery to mobilize voter registration. You are in effect saying CORD should do what Jubilee is doing while attributing state activities to Jubilee. Well, it is not possible. Proper figures will only be available when we have a credible commission.
If you look carefully at my last comments, I'm not necessarily asking for figures from any commission. I'm asking for CORD's figures----from whatever source---as to how its voter registration is going.
Well, what we are looking for are the voter registration figures for 2007. They were all over the internet and now they are not. If this is untrue then kindly find and post them. I have posted for 2002 and have the 2013 ready. I would remind you the reason for seeking the figures is to show that in 2002 the number of Central voters was nearly half what it became in 2007. The 2013 figures will show a DECLINE in the numbers.
Now it is essential to have them so you can answer some simple questions like why there was a decline. I note your earlier speculative explanation (without the all important 2007 figures) in which you suggested a natural increase. That is how all normal people assume it would be. However the missing figures say a different story as you read in the discussion at nipate.com
I no longer read anything at nipate.com, which is probably just as well, given that the figures in question have been "lost" since you posted them there. Look, until you can supply the 2007 figures, I suggest you refrain from using them in your arguments.
OKOA was one way of working on the said list. CORD was therefore attempting to work on the list. When the IEBC frustrated the referendum, CORD switched gears and decided that the IEBC thieves were indeed the obstacles that had to go.
OKOA was a hopelessly block-headed movement, and I don't just mean "agents" eating CORD money while "registering" phantoms. If someone had asked me, here is what I would have said: It doesn't matter how many millions of signatures you have ... to get a referendum, the IEBC has to be on board. The obvious way to stymie things would be to say it does not have enough have sufficient money or something that require legislative action. For that to happen, parliament has to act. And who controls parliament? CORD did not even get that far, but how did it plan to get around that?
And here's another question: CORD decided IEBC had to go because they frustrated the referendum? Really? The "we wuz robbed!" from 2013 didn't excite them enough to get moving?
BTW what do you hope to achieve by obtaining the number of eligible voters in CORD strongholds?
I don't hope to achieve anything; but, as I have stated, numbers would provide a more objective basis for a reasonable discussion.
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Not really, when you denigrate the legitimate statement that figures were available and were posted and now are completely vanished, I am bound to pursue it in other ways. The 2007 voter registration details were / are public information whose non appearance should draw your concern not mockery.
You make a great mockery of the fact that i linked to nipate.com and irritatingly suggest that CORD and I keep our information there. Yet you know that is not the case, If I were going to suggest something existed and it has disappeared, it helps to prove the disappearance at least. You have decided to completely and deliberately misunderstand the reasons for citing nipate.com and turned it to ridicule.
I think you are making too much of this. I asked for some numbers. Your response: you posted them on some whacko website, they are no longer there, and so you don't actually have any numbers to provide but will nevertheless keep arguing on the basis of the "missing" numbers. I find it amusing, but that's not to mean that I'm making fun of you. What else am I supposed to make of it? Accept it and keep going with an argument based on phantom numbers?
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I see you guys are still busy flogging a dead horse. ODM in 2017 will be extremely lucky to get 50mps. The party is dead as dodo in most area except a few fringes here and there. Right now if you were to find Mps still loyal to the party outside Luo Nyanza; you'd be hard pressed to find them. RV, Central and Eastern it clearly has nearly zero Mp still loyal to them...maybe 3 mps. In Western..it down to 5 or so Mps...the rest are either Jubilee learning or storming out or in Ford-Kenya. If you go to COAST and NEP..it has hammorraged most of it mps.
Raila inherited huge junk of KANU which merged with NDP to form LDP. Then he had LDP merge with remainder of KANU to form ODM.
Look at what he has done to Moi's KANU aka ODM? He has killed it. He is now left with NDP.
Right now if you were to remove Joho/Kingi/Nanok/Oparanya the party would be practically NDP (Luo party).
All Jubilee (esp Ruto) need to focus in 2017 is to politically finish off Joho/Kingi/Nanok -easy beezy and oparanya --and Raila will be left with as much support as he started back in 96.
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I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857
Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.
Here, maybe this is what you were looking for?
Kuma Dawa
I asked you to explain why there was a decline in the number of registered voters in central in 2013 following an unexplained spike from 2002 and 2007. It is NOT natural. Populations grow and it is unlikely that there would be such a decline unless the 2007 figures were cooked and could not be sustained.
Source:
Registered voters - 1997 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_general_election,_1997)
Registered voters 2002 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_general_election,_2002)
Registered voters 2007 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_presidential_election,_2007)
Registered voters 2013 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_general_election,_2013)
Clarify what your mean by "Other comparative figures"??
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Empedocles
Yes and No.
If you follow the link for 2007, you come to wikipedia. There you shall find the relevant information has been edited away. That is my complaint. It is however very "helpful" in pouring ridicule on me.
I had the figures here. http://nipate.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55813&p=456857&hilit=central+province+voter+registration#p456857
Its all deleted and a search produces no information on the number of voters.
Here, maybe this is what you were looking for?
Kuma Dawa
I asked you to explain why there was a decline in the number of registered voters in central in 2013 following an unexplained spike from 2002 and 2007. It is NOT natural. Populations grow and it is unlikely that there would be such a decline unless the 2007 figures were cooked and could not be sustained.
Source:
Registered voters - 1997 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_general_election,_1997)
Registered voters 2002 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_general_election,_2002)
Registered voters 2007 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_presidential_election,_2007)
Registered voters 2013 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenyan_general_election,_2013)
Clarify what your mean by "Other comparative figures"??
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Pundit
I am used to your declarations and speculations which you often dress as hard uncontested facts. MPs defecting does not mean a party has lost support.
We had an MP from Malindi defect to Jubilee. He was rewarded with a cabinet post. Did we lose the seat?
We had another defect and become internal security minister. Did we lose the seat? So how is it that despite all the Euro Bond cash, Jubilee is not taking a single seat from ODM? How is it that the planned mass defection at the coast led by Gideon Mung'aro and a mini election failed to take off and Uhuru had to change the law to save the defectors and avoid by elections?
You have a right to make your predictions and speculate. In turn, I too have the same right and now exercise it by telling you, Jubilee will be a minority party in Parliament. We shall take the Presidency and both houses in addition to a majority of the County governments.
I see you guys are still busy flogging a dead horse. ODM in 2017 will be extremely lucky to get 50mps. The party is dead as dodo in most area except a few fringes here and there. Right now if you were to find Mps still loyal to the party outside Luo Nyanza; you'd be hard pressed to find them. RV, Central and Eastern it clearly has nearly zero Mp still loyal to them...maybe 3 mps. In Western..it down to 5 or so Mps...the rest are either Jubilee learning or storming out or in Ford-Kenya. If you go to COAST and NEP..it has hammorraged most of it mps.
Raila inherited huge junk of KANU which merged with NDP to form LDP. Then he had LDP merge with remainder of KANU to form ODM.
Look at what he has done to Moi's KANU aka ODM? He has killed it. He is now left with NDP.
Right now if you were to remove Joho/Kingi/Nanok/Oparanya the party would be practically NDP (Luo party).
All Jubilee (esp Ruto) need to focus in 2017 is to politically finish off Joho/Kingi/Nanok -easy beezy and oparanya --and Raila will be left with as much support as he started back in 96.
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MoonKi
There is no way you can compare Jubilee High way robbers to CORD. Never in the history of this country has there been such a thieving government. The thievery is both brobdingnagian and perverse. It is the only time I have witnessed the sum stolen increasing on a daily basis and by the tens of millions.
Whatever government CORD forms will be less corrupt - even if only because the records set are so low one has to go below ground to reach their tails. If Jubilee wins another term it will be the end of this country as we know it. That can not be allowed to happen.
We know they are busy bribing politicians and counting that as popular support. Many of our people have sought permission to go and get their share of the loot and we have few options but let them go. But mark my words, Jubilee is only getting back in office by rigging. And we know it and they will have a harder time doing that than 2013.
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Empedocles
Yes and No.
If you follow the link for 2007, you come to wikipedia. There you shall find the relevant information has been edited away. That is my complaint. It is however very "helpful" in pouring ridicule on me.
Wikipedia keeps an Edit History which for the 2007 elections can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kenyan_general_election,_2002&action=history
Your numbers are still available.
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Kajiado was just a fluke...ODM candidate was rigged out in Jubilee nomination..so I won't count that.CORD is dead as dodo in entire Maasai land. Admittedly like I said..ODM is still strong in few parts of coast (see Kingi-Joho-Operanya-Nanok)...but that support is waning day by day. We will keep watching this space but as of now...your dear party is clearly on the ropes...and Ruto is not pulling any punches. Uhuru has not yet started throwing them.
Pundit
I am used to your declarations and speculations which you often dress as hard uncontested facts. MPs defecting does not mean a party has lost support.
We had an MP from Malindi defect to Jubilee. He was rewarded with a cabinet post. Did we lose the seat?
We had another defect and become internal security minister. Did we lose the seat? So how is it that despite all the Euro Bond cash, Jubilee is not taking a single seat from ODM? How is it that the planned mass defection at the coast led by Gideon Mung'aro and a mini election failed to take off and Uhuru had to change the law to save the defectors and avoid by elections?
You have a right to make your predictions and speculate. In turn, I too have the same right and now exercise it by telling you, Jubilee will be a minority party in Parliament. We shall take the Presidency and both houses in addition to a majority of the County governments.
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I don't get it. ODM won in Kajiado and then the victory does not count? And did you just say Jubilee rigged? Are you not the one who was praising Jubilee's impeccable nominations only yesterday?
CORD wins a seat in Maasai - which is a measure of its popularity and you want me to discard that and listen to your punditry about CORD being dead? I seem to recall you predicting Jubliee sweep of Kajiado, Malindi and Kericho. CORD stayed out of Kericho and now going by what you confess, Salat was right that Jubilee (Minus KANU) stole the seat from KANU.
How is the support waning when CORD wins elections despite Eurobond cash? Do you have some other secret method of measuring support outside elections?
Uhuru has been campaigning brother:
1. He camped in Mombasa with brown Eurobond envelopes. He organized a by election to test his "victory".CORD gave him a bloody nose,
2. He then went to Kakamega but his love for foreign trips saved him the humiliation. He dished out a few brown envelopes but mostly targeted MaDVDs supporters who lined up and got their Eurobonds. Kakamega remains solid (as you admit)
3. He then went to NEP and could have been a threat except he fenced in people, reminding them of the days DCs used to fence them in for forceful meetings. He lost badly and is now revenging on the Garissa Governor with trumped up charges. His man Duale is being retired for his troubles
4. Uhuru then went to camp in Ukambani with Campaign Chap Chap. Needless to say Jubilee is getting zilch from there. They dished out Eurobonds to MPs. Then they detained Muthama. Ruto is a gift that keeps giving CORD.
Kajiado was just a fluke...ODM candidate was rigged out in Jubilee nomination..so I won't count that.CORD is dead as dodo in entire Maasai land. Admittedly like I said..ODM is still strong in few parts of coast (see Kingi-Joho-Operanya-Nanok)...but that support is waning day by day. We will keep watching this space but as of now...your dear party is clearly on the ropes...and Ruto is not pulling any punches. Uhuru has not yet started throwing them.
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Well I guess this is politics where everyone see what they like.ODM in 2007 had nearly 50% of mps in national assembly...in 2013 the number had come down to less than 30%..after Ruto took most of the rest to URP. Now looking at how MPs are decamping..including Otuomas/Namwamba/Taveta Senator/Mungaro & group/most of Gusii Mps...I see ODM loosing another 10-15% to drop 15-20%. I just don't see how they will be able to wade off UhuRuto assault...considering Jubilee is so much ahead (now well into merged party with well known line up). ODM will be lucky get 70mps next time. I'd put the figure around 50mps in the party that was biggest less than 10yrs ago. It all down to Raila failed leadership.
Mmh talking about Duale...I think his seat of Majority Leader can become available if somebody was to bring Kalonzo kind of numbers. But that will complicate 2022 for Ruto...so Duale keep the seat.
I don't get it. ODM won in Kajiado and then the victory does not count? And did you just say Jubilee rigged? Are you not the one who was praising Jubilee's impeccable nominations only yesterday?
CORD wins a seat in Maasai - which is a measure of its popularity and you want me to discard that and listen to your punditry about CORD being dead? I seem to recall you predicting Jubliee sweep of Kajiado, Malindi and Kericho. CORD stayed out of Kericho and now going by what you confess, Salat was right that Jubilee (Minus KANU) stole the seat from KANU.
How is the support waning when CORD wins elections despite Eurobond cash? Do you have some other secret method of measuring support outside elections?
Uhuru has been campaigning brother:
1. He camped in Mombasa with brown Eurobond envelopes. He organized a by election to test his "victory".CORD gave him a bloody nose,
2. He then went to Kakamega but his love for foreign trips saved him the humiliation. He dished out a few brown envelopes but mostly targeted MaDVDs supporters who lined up and got their Eurobonds. Kakamega remains solid (as you admit)
3. He then went to NEP and could have been a threat except he fenced in people, reminding them of the days DCs used to fence them in for forceful meetings. He lost badly and is now revenging on the Garissa Governor with trumped up charges. His man Duale is being retired for his troubles
4. Uhuru then went to camp in Ukambani with Campaign Chap Chap. Needless to say Jubilee is getting zilch from there. They dished out Eurobonds to MPs. Then they detained Muthama. Ruto is a gift that keeps giving CORD.
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Its not just wishing Duale to keep the seat. Duale has no support in his home area. He has been seen as siding with those oppressing Kenyan Somalis and Somalis in general. I would be shocked if he makes it back.
Ruto left but we got Wiper and FORD K. I have not looked at the numbers closely but will.
CORD lost many seats because of not running joint nominations. We had ODM running against Wiper etc. That will not happen again.
Well I guess this is politics where everyone see what they like.ODM in 2007 had nearly 50% of mps in national assembly...in 2013 the number had come down to less than 30%..after Ruto took most of the rest to URP.
I will look at the figures but I still believe had CORD held joint nominations, the damage by Ruto would have been limited.
Now looking at how MPs are decamping..including Otuomas/Namwamba/Taveta Senator/Mungaro & group/most of Gusii Mps...I see ODM loosing another 10-15% to drop 15-20%.
Namwamba: Will not retain his seat on a non ODM ticket. Take it to the bank. Julia has been running her briefcase party for almost 20 years. She couldn't even win her own seat.
Otuoma is as light weight as they come. He wants to be Governor. He will lose both
Taveta Governorship Will remain ODM. Naomi Shabani stole her seat and she is running away seeing the tide. Tell Uhuru to return the land stolen by his father and mother and Jubilee may win something over there.
Mung'aro Pundit, If you were not my friend of many years, I would laugh at this. First Mung'aro is leaving parliament. He knew we were after that seat by any means. He wants to become governor and he will not make it. However we know his game plan. He started off as a Councillor and now wants to retire. He needs the Eurobond to retire. He is not a concern.
I just don't see how they will be able to wade off UhuRuto assault...considering Jubilee is so much ahead (now well into merged party with well known line up). ODM will be lucky get 70mps next time. I'd put the figure around 50mps in the party that was biggest less than 10yrs ago. It all down to Raila failed leadership.
Jubilee has Eurobond. And you know what, we are not scared. Trust me.
As for popular support, they have zilch. The MPs taking money dare not openly support Jubilee in their areas. Ask Washiali how he had to escape through a banana plantation when he mentioned Jubilee. Let Jubilee dish out money. Like I told you, many MPs are seeking permission to collect Eurobonds. As for Jubilee being ahead? Sorry bro. Open your eyes. Mag projects amid massive corruption and unemployment.
Mmh talking about Duale...I think his seat of Majority Leader can become available if somebody was to bring Kalonzo kind of numbers. But that will complicate 2022 for Ruto...so Duale keep the seat.
Ruto is turning out to be a very good ally of CORD.(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cmm6_81WAAAhZW1.jpg)
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Don't conflate ODM with CORD. In any case overally CORD have less than ODM of 2007. And Wiper is not sitting pretty..with Mutua's ChapChap and Jubilee inroads. Jubilee will do very well in Coast, Gussi & of course the small tribes this time round..and will basically ran away with NEP. You're may not be aware but Jubilee is busy building the road from Garissa to Mandera...they are about half way. I don't see CORD surviving in NEP. Maybe Migori's Junet is confusing you. In Luhya land....the game-plan seem pretty the same...you don't vote for CORD neither Jubilee....so Namwamba and his groupies will get few seats in Labour Party...UDF will get few...ANC will get few...FORD-K few..ODM a few..and new ford kenya a few....Jubilee will sneak with a couple. Raila's ODM last man standing now is Oparanya in entire LuhyaLand...facing off with nasty Khawale who doesn't take prisoners...doesn't look pretty for a party that count Luhya land as it support base.
Its not just wishing Duale to keep the seat. Duale has no support in his home area. He has been seen as siding with those oppressing Kenyan Somalis and Somalis in general. I would be shocked if he makes it back.
Ruto left but we got Wiper and FORD K. I have not looked at the numbers closely but will.
CORD lost many seats because of not running joint nominations. We had ODM running against Wiper etc. That will not happen again.
Well I guess this is politics where everyone see what they like.ODM in 2007 had nearly 50% of mps in national assembly...in 2013 the number had come down to less than 30%..after Ruto took most of the rest to URP.
I will look at the figures but I still believe had CORD held joint nominations, the damage by Ruto would have been limited.
Now looking at how MPs are decamping..including Otuomas/Namwamba/Taveta Senator/Mungaro & group/most of Gusii Mps...I see ODM loosing another 10-15% to drop 15-20%.
Namwamba: Will not retain his seat on a non ODM ticket. Take it to the bank. Julia has been running her briefcase party for almost 20 years. She couldn't even win her own seat.
Otuoma is as light weight as they come. He wants to be Governor. He will lose both
Taveta Governorship Will remain ODM. Naomi Shabani stole her seat and she is running away seeing the tide. Tell Uhuru to return the land stolen by his father and mother and Jubilee may win something over there.
Mung'aro Pundit, If you were not my friend of many years, I would laugh at this. First Mung'aro is leaving parliament. He knew we were after that seat by any means. He wants to become governor and he will not make it. However we know his game plan. He started off as a Councillor and now wants to retire. He needs the Eurobond to retire. He is not a concern.
I just don't see how they will be able to wade off UhuRuto assault...considering Jubilee is so much ahead (now well into merged party with well known line up). ODM will be lucky get 70mps next time. I'd put the figure around 50mps in the party that was biggest less than 10yrs ago. It all down to Raila failed leadership.
Jubilee has Eurobond. And you know what, we are not scared. Trust me.
As for popular support, they have zilch. The MPs taking money dare not openly support Jubilee in their areas. Ask Washiali how he had to escape through a banana plantation when he mentioned Jubilee. Let Jubilee dish out money. Like I told you, many MPs are seeking permission to collect Eurobonds. As for Jubilee being ahead? Sorry bro. Open your eyes. Mag projects amid massive corruption and unemployment.
Mmh talking about Duale...I think his seat of Majority Leader can become available if somebody was to bring Kalonzo kind of numbers. But that will complicate 2022 for Ruto...so Duale keep the seat.
Ruto is turning out to be a very good ally of CORD.
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Don't conflate ODM with CORD. In any case overally CORD have less than ODM of 2007.
ODM is now part of CORD. As we approach 2017 it will be more CORD and less ODM, Wiper or FORD Kenya. The challenge we have now is of course what happens to the third Principal who fails to get the ticket or DP. But that will sort itself out.
And Wiper is not sitting pretty..with Mutua's ChapChap and Jubilee inroads.
I thought you knew Mutua is retiring. He is linning up his pension and preparing for a long stint in the courts on corruption charges. I suspect he will dust up his European/ American passport and relocate. You don't for a moment believe Mutua has votes in Machakos bro?
Jubilee will do very well in Coast,
Where will these votes come from? Malindi? CORD has been weakest in Malindi and we still kept the seat. How on earth would you imagine you would get votes in MRC dominated areas where EJK is ongoing? Good luck
Gussi & of course the small tribes this time round..
Uhuru banks on Nyachae. The idea is to bring out Matiang'i, Nyachae etc. My advice, let Matiang'i complete his brief in the Ministry of Education and by complete I mean he is the only minister who has not completed his campaign finance quarter. But politics.. no. Charles Nyachae will win nothing in Gusii land. Jubilee as usual may win one odd seat here and there thanks to the compley clan politics over there but not on the scale you are imagining.
and will basically ran away with NEP.
Not a chance. First stop harassing somalis and second, reduce the migration of Kikuyus to the area and lastly, reduce Kikuyunization of jobs and land then you have a chance.
You're may not be aware but Jubilee is busy building the road from Garissa to Mandera...they are about half way. I don't see CORD surviving in NEP.
How many governments have fallen while building major projects? Some of these come lately projects are serving to remind NEP folks just how previous governments have discriminated against them. It does not help when the contractors, employees etc are all from one tribe and you know which.
Maybe Migori's Junet is confusing you.
Junet is a Luo MP. Luoland and Luhyaland are places where you can make it to anything anytime regardless of your tribe. Any Luo MPs in RV? We offered to make Uhuru Kisumu MP in 2007 if he joined us, remember?
In Luhya land....the game-plan seem pretty the same...you don't vote for CORD neither Jubilee....so Namwamba and his groupies will get few seats in Labour Party...UDF will get few...ANC will get few...FORD-K few..ODM a few..and new ford kenya a few....Jubilee will sneak with a couple. Raila's ODM last man standing now is Oparanya in entire LuhyaLand...facing off with nasty Khawale who doesn't take prisoners...doesn't look pretty for a party that count Luhya land as it support base.
Sorry pundit. Busia is ODM / CORD. Namwamba and Otuoma are taking your money bure.
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MoonKi
There is no way you can compare Jubilee High way robbers to CORD. Never in the history of this country has there been such a thieving government. The thievery is both brobdingnagian and perverse. It is the only time I have witnessed the sum stolen increasing on a daily basis and by the tens of millions.
Whatever government CORD forms will be less corrupt - even if only because the records set are so low one has to go below ground to reach their tails. If Jubilee wins another term it will be the end of this country as we know it. That can not be allowed to happen.
Can't argue with that. CORD hasn't had opportunities to have a real go at the public till, or engage in serious financial mischief ... although Caroli gave a hint of what can be done in the "right" circumstances.
True, Jubilee's time has been one of plunder. Amusingly, they have been helped by the "theft-proof" computer technology. But corruption issues have nothing to do with how people vote in Kenya, and many Kenyans would like nothing better than an opportunity to steal too. If they aren't among the thieves, then they will look for a "secondary appointment", whence the "we need to join/work-with the government so that our areas too can develop" lines.
I like that one. There are many "Kenyan" stories in that book!
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Simanova,
I gave you a way of getting the numbers you need from Wikipedia's edit history.
Please avail them as I really didn't know the 2002 - 2013 numbers had changed so drastically as you mentioned.
And no, this is not making fun of you. I'm genuinely interested.
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There were hundreds of edits mostly deleting information. I am going through step by step. It is 2007 though. The link you provided is for 2002 whose figures are available.
Simanova,
I gave you a way of getting the numbers you need from Wikipedia's edit history.
Please avail them as I really didn't know the 2002 - 2013 numbers had changed so drastically as you mentioned.
And no, this is not making fun of you. I'm genuinely interested.
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ODM is the most democratic party in Kenya. I understand that you want this enhanced and no doubt it will. I just hope other political parties will follow suit by holding direct popular elections. Name any other party that has done that or as frequently as ODM has done.
JAP did it in Kericho just a few months ago. Some unknown young blood clinched the JAP nomination for the senatorial by-election by handily defeating two political giants (Former Minister Franklin Bett and former ODM executive director Margerer Langat) and indefinitely sidelining them from active politics. I highly doubt a mere nobody especially a young turk can win an ODM nomination in Nyanza without RAO’s blessing.
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CORD has been mobilizing members to register. We are hampered by lack of ID cards.
The IEBC has been discriminating when it comes to voter registration with more resources being deployed in Central than other areas of the country. Hence we are demanding the reform of that body. We are also moving to widen what qualifies as ID card and whether it is even necessary for elections. Why have the BMR and then deny someone the right to vote? Other countries have used ID cards issued by the Electoral body. E.g Sierra Leone.
You should blame the late Otieno Kajwang for dishing out ID cards to youths from Mount Kenya and Rift Valley where RAO’s political opponents hail. He was in charge of issuing ID cards. Him and other Cord leaders were busy dancing on stage and forgot to emphasise to their young turks especially in Western the importance of acquiring national ID card and registering to vote. RAO was a strong presidential contender in 2013, the Ministry of Immigration was his docket and responsible for population registration and issuing of national ID cards, yet his strongholds had a low voter registration and turnout due to lacking of ID cards. They had unlimited resources at their disposal but decided to sleep on the job.