Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Simanova on June 26, 2016, 01:12:53 PM
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Take it to the bank Pundit
Kikuyu community promising to back William Ruto is based on fear he could dump Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017. ~Nominated Senator Paul Njoroge
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl3WASfXEAAN4R3.jpg)
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No problem. We shall surely wait for that to unfold. In meantime Ruto is busy building the largest party in kenya that would eclipse ODM by far and would be as powerful as KANU of 80s. That party is Jubilee that will see 13 parties collapsed. That is nice 2022 launch pad. If Kikuyus will want to pull out of Jubilee then...that would be their decision. At the same time Ruto is running up and down the country like Moi reloaded...in short read Dan Moi playbook and you'll understand Ruto gameplan.
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Pundit
can it get clearer than that? I will post the video once I obtain it.
Nominated Senator Paul Njoroge has sounded a warning to Deputy President William Ruto against starting campaigns for his 2022 presidential bid early, terming the move as ill timed and divisive.
Senator Njoroge claims Ruto’s ongoing campaigns are putting Central Kenya in an awkward position given that 2022 is still far, adding that anything could happen before then.
Speaking during a press conference in Nairobi, the nominated senator said the Kikuyu community has a right to elect whoever they want after Uhuru Kenyatta’s term ends, rubbishing the pledge by Central Kenya to back the DP when Uhuru exits.
Njoroge further argued that the promise by Uhuru’s Central Kenya backyard to rally behind Ruto’s 2022 presidential bid is based on fear that he could dump the president in 2017 as he seeks a second term.
His sentiments echo those of Kiambu Governor William Kabogo’s about a fortnight ago during a funeral service in Juja Town that seemed to insinuate that the people of Mount Kenya region may not support DP Ruto come 2022.
Governor Kabogo faced criticism from members of the Jubilee Coalition who termed his statements divisive and not representative of the coalition.
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Political party? JAP is a government run party. It will, like KANU, PNU and GNU not survive the exit of Uhuru. You know it. Plus I do not believe it has any chance of beating ODM and CORD.
That Dan Moi plan is exactly what the Kikuyus have read and have been using since Kibaki came to power. Wamalwa died of AIDS? C'mon who dies of AIDS with such money? Awori survived how many helicopter crashes? The last one he went to Kibaki and told him to tell his dos he is retiring. GEMA took no chances... Dr. Otuma could have swam in money is that was possible. Awori had to go.
Kalonzo guys... need I say more? When we ask them about him (even you are on record asking what he did wrong), they say he did not go to central on his own to connect with Kikuyus (LYING Energizer) - like Moi ever did. They are simply bereft of excuses.
All this is simple, they can never allow a VP / DP serve two terms or 12 years. They recon after that atawashinda.
Ruto is running around the country because the Kikuyus want assurances he will support them for 2017 and then they will dump him, in the now unlikely event that they win . His going around the country does not refute the stance by the loud mouthed Kikuyus. The opinion they are expressing is more widespread than you think. They believe they have a fool and nobody should wake him up.
No problem. We shall surely wait for that to unfold. In meantime Ruto is busy building the largest party in kenya that would eclipse ODM by far and would be as powerful as KANU of 80s. That party is Jubilee that will see 13 parties collapsed. That is nice 2022 launch pad. If Kikuyus will want to pull out of Jubilee then...that would be their decision. At the same time Ruto is running up and down the country like Moi reloaded...in short read Dan Moi playbook and you'll understand Ruto gameplan.
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This strategy is a waste of time if you ask me, it won't change the course Ruto intends to steer his ship nor will it swing some Rift Valley votes towards ODM.
Say you are a prophet and you can read what will happen in 2022, and for sure Kikuyu's will do a no. on Ruto, what options does Ruto have in 2017? Go under babu's wings and as promised babu will only be a one termer , run alone or run as DP and retain the status quo? Ruto in his own words has described the first two options as "karata ya pata potea"
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Yule Musee
I believe the subject / heading captures the views of Senator Paul Njoroge. He has not denied the same, has he? The subject also reflects the views expressed publicly and attributed to Governor William Kabogo. He has not recanted the views but tried to smear over them and fudge the fallout.
I believe the same subject reflects and even clearer message from Governor Munya.
Ruto has the option of running alone, coming second and then challenging the Kikuyus to choose between him and Raila. I see close to 1.7 spoilt votes in the Raila- Ruto runoff.
This strategy is a waste of time if you ask me, it won't change the course Ruto intends to steer his ship nor will it swing some Rift Valley votes towards ODM.
Say you are a prophet and you can read what will happen in 2022, and for sure Kikuyu's will do a no. on Ruto, what options does Ruto have in 2017? Go under babu's wings and as promised babu will only be a one termer , run alone or run as DP and retain the status quo? Ruto in his own words has described the first two options as "karata ya pata potea"
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Yule Musee
I believe the subject / heading captures the views of Senator Paul Njoroge. He has not denied the same, has he? The subject also reflects the views expressed publicly and attributed to Governor William Kabogo. He has not recanted the views but tried to smear over them and fudge the fallout.
I believe the same subject reflects and even clearer message from Governor Munya.
Ruto has the option of running alone, coming second and then challenging the Kikuyus to choose between him and Raila. I see close to 1.7 spoilt votes in the Raila- Ruto runoff.
This strategy is a waste of time if you ask me, it won't change the course Ruto intends to steer his ship nor will it swing some Rift Valley votes towards ODM.
Say you are a prophet and you can read what will happen in 2022, and for sure Kikuyu's will do a no. on Ruto, what options does Ruto have in 2017? Go under babu's wings and as promised babu will only be a one termer , run alone or run as DP and retain the status quo? Ruto in his own words has described the first two options as "karata ya pata potea"
If he runs, he will become no. 3, Rift Valley votes minus Transzoia, Nakuru and Laikipia + North Eastern cannot get one to no. 2.
What's your take on Raila offering Ruto the DP spot and promising to be a one termer, does he want to do a Kalonzo on Ruto too?
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YuleMzee that is right. Ruto best plan for 2017 is to continue with 50-50 with Uhuru, build a strong umbrella jubilee party, use power & patronage to build a strong case, make GEMA stick to their words by projecting strength--not weakness like Kalonzo- and go for it in 2022 with that party.
I see people who are worried about Ruto 2022....while IPOS synovate is saying Raila will be beaten like a drum with 58% versus 32. Worry about 2017. Ruto has 2022 covered. I have studied Ruto rise in politics keenly since 2001....as first time MP..and there is no doubt he is brilliant strategist.
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/06/27/uhuru-widens-gap-over-raila-ipsos-poll-shows_c1375854?page=0%2C1
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I thought you are better than that. How can you possibly believe the IPOS crap.
Ruto is doing all those things you are suggesting. The problem is that Kikuyus do not plan to support him. Being strong and not weak like Kalonzo will not in any way compel Kikuyus to vote for Ruto.
I was busy the other day and let the Moi analogy pass. I was later laughing wondering how a bright mind like you can use such an analogy knowing there is no similarity.
For Ruto to be Moi, Kenya would first have to shrink the political space in to a mon party dictatorship characterized by political intimidation and run as a pure police state. That was the situation under which Moi inherited power. Just like Ngei had said before, having Presidential powers for only two hours is enough for him to stay for two and a half decades. It happened.
As soon as Kikuyus allowed Moi to be sworn in and wield Presidential powers it was a done deal. The rest of the campaign election, etc were mere games. It ended on that August 22nd Day when Moi took the oath.
Even if Uhuru resigns and gives Ruto those powers, we shall still hold free and fair elections (your words) in which Kikuyus will be free to vote as they wish. Incumbency is no guarantee against loss. There are many examples lately in Africa where incumbents have lost:
1. Banda of Zambia
2. Banda of Malawi
3. Jonathan of Nigeria
YuleMzee that is right. Ruto best plan for 2017 is to continue with 50-50 with Uhuru, build a strong umbrella jubilee party, use power & patronage to build a strong case, make GEMA stick to their words by projecting strength--not weakness like Kalonzo- and go for it in 2022 with that party.
I see people who are worried about Ruto 2022....while IPOS synovate is saying Raila will be beaten like a drum with 58% versus 32. Worry about 2017. Ruto has 2022 covered. I have studied Ruto rise in politics keenly since 2001....as first time MP..and there is no doubt he is brilliant strategist.
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/06/27/uhuru-widens-gap-over-raila-ipsos-poll-shows_c1375854?page=0%2C1
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No problem. We shall surely wait for that to unfold. In meantime Ruto is busy building the largest party in kenya that would eclipse ODM by far and would be as powerful as KANU of 80s. That party is Jubilee that will see 13 parties collapsed. That is nice 2022 launch pad. If Kikuyus will want to pull out of Jubilee then...that would be their decision. At the same time Ruto is running up and down the country like Moi reloaded...in short read Dan Moi playbook and you'll understand Ruto gameplan.
The Moi game plan was to hang on until Kenyatta died. Ruto could get in that way. His best bet is Uhuru dying in office.
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Of course.Which is why he is better sticking with Uhuru...just in case he drops dead :) and he get in without doing anything. What you're missing though is the fact that Moi was not just sitting there waiting day and night for Kenyatta to die --he was actually busy touring the country and building his supports -- the kikuyu elites might have entertained upstaging moi --but Moi in 1978 was very popular man with the country behind him.
Moi never became popular by sleeping around waiting ... he built his popularity while staying 100% loyal to his boss...something Ruto is doing.
The Moi game plan was to hang on until Kenyatta died. Ruto could get in that way. His best bet is Uhuru dying in office.
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Of course.Which is why he is better sticking with Uhuru...just in case he drops dead and he get in without doing anything. What you're missing though is the fact that Moi was not just sitting there waiting day and night for Kenyatta to die --he was actually busy touring the country and building his supports -- the kikuyu elites might have entertained upstaging moi --but Moi in 1978 was very popular man with the country behind him.
The Moi game plan was to hang on until Kenyatta died. Ruto could get in that way. His best bet is Uhuru dying in office.
Yep. Because, after kamwana, everything goes back to square one. We (should) know he won't inherit the GEMA base. Yet that is his best bet. Will he get Luos? Luhyas? Kambas? Coast?
I think 2022 is wide open. It will take someone with greater national appeal than Ruto to win it all.
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I think Synovate here are on point. Uhuru has added more votes to his 2012 baskets. They were running as ICC indictee with scare mongering from everyone including Obama but managed to ran a good campaign.
Ruto will work with what he has. I don't know who the kikuyus are planning to support in 2022 but I know right now most GEMA mps are fighting to become Ruto's DP. I also know Ruto has the genuine support and friendship of Uhuru -- who is the undisputed leader of GEMA. That is good base to start.
Again at the risk of repeating myself. Ruto plan A is that Uhuru and GEMA will support him. In case they don't support him --his plan B is to retain most of Jubilee support and make coalition with another strong party. GEMA will also need to make another pact. Nobody can do it alone. Every of the big tribes and few second tier tribes will all be looking to make deals and alliances.
So far all we hear is the same BULLSHIET we heard prior to 2013 that Kikuyu and Kalenjin will not vote in the same basket immediately after PEV. That never panned out as planned. The tatulogy has now morphed into Kikuyus are planning not to support Ruto....and we have evidence of two people...while ignoring evidence of 98 others who have endorsed Ruto.
All we hear are guys who clearly don't like Ruto trying to advice him on what is the best for him. The advice is the rocket science of kikuyus will not support you. Like they've gone to 2022 and came back.
I thought you are better than that. How can you possibly believe the IPOS crap.
Ruto is doing all those things you are suggesting. The problem is that Kikuyus do not plan to support him. Being strong and not weak like Kalonzo will not in any way compel Kikuyus to vote for Ruto.
I was busy the other day and let the Moi analogy pass. I was later laughing wondering how a bright mind like you can use such an analogy knowing there is no similarity.
For Ruto to be Moi, Kenya would first have to shrink the political space in to a mon party dictatorship characterized by political intimidation and run as a pure police state. That was the situation under which Moi inherited power. Just like Ngei had said before, having Presidential powers for only two hours is enough for him to stay for two and a half decades. It happened.
As soon as Kikuyus allowed Moi to be sworn in and wield Presidential powers it was a done deal. The rest of the campaign election, etc were mere games. It ended on that August 22nd Day when Moi took the oath.
Even if Uhuru resigns and gives Ruto those powers, we shall still hold free and fair elections (your words) in which Kikuyus will be free to vote as they wish. Incumbency is no guarantee against loss. There are many examples lately in Africa where incumbents have lost:
1. Banda of Zambia
2. Banda of Malawi
3. Jonathan of Nigeria
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Here we go with shifting goal posts. So according to you Uhuru has more national appeal than Ruto? He had more national appeal in 2002? and in 2013? Kibaki had more national appeal? Or Raila who won Luo vote only in 97? has more national appeal? What is the national appeal anyway?
The guy who win in Kenya is the guy who manages to amaze the largest tribal alliance. If that is national appeal --there you got it.
The guys who "hate" Ruto are doing so for political reasons. There was a time every kikuyu would wake up and say Ruto was dead man walking. He has been walking dead ever. Ruto never wasted time with the nonsense but got to himself busy at job at Kilimo and Higher Education...at end of the day...he was admired as the most hardworking minister. Now it Luos turn to "hate" Ruto. And the reason is obvious...Ruto has essentially made Raila politically irrelevant.
Ruto will most likely win 2022 because he is most brilliant, gifted, eloquent and most hardworking politician at his level. Ruto is by far the youngest..just turned 50...and will be around for a very long time...and every year he is just getting better. In 2022...it will be obvious there won't be any competition. Ruto is not sitting there waiting to be made PORK...he is there making himself
the only choice for 2012.
I think 2022 is wide open. It will take someone with greater national appeal than Ruto to win it all.
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Here we go with shifting goal posts. So according to you Uhuru has more national appeal than Ruto? He had more national appeal in 2002? and in 2013? Kibaki had more national appeal? Or Raila who won Luo vote only in 97? has more national appeal? What is the national appeal anyway?
The guy who win in Kenya is the guy who manages to amaze the largest tribal alliance. If that is national appeal --there you got it.
The guys who "hate" Ruto are doing so for political reasons. There was a time every kikuyu would wake up and say Ruto was dead man walking. He has been walking dead ever. Ruto never wasted time but got to him job at Kilimo and HQ...at end of the day...he was admired as the most hardworking ministers. Now it Luos turn to "hate" Ruto. And the reason is obvious...Ruto has essentially made Raila politically irrelevant.
Ruto will most likely win 2022 because he is most brilliant, gifted, eloquent and most hardworking politician at his level. Ruto is by far the youngest..just turned 50...and will be around for a very long time...and every year he is just getting better. In 2022...it will be obvious there won't be any competition. Ruto is not sitting there waiting to be made PORK...he is there making himself
the only choice for 2012.
I think 2022 is wide open. It will take someone with greater national appeal than Ruto to win it all.
Of course tribal alliances matter. For them to work, though, you have to be able to sell a candidate to a different tribe. I am not seeing anyone else buying into Ruto outside his tribe. Maybe shaky support from a few pastoralist communities.
We are already hearing noises from his best option.
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That is already good enough base -Kalenjin+pastoralist gave him 78Mps, 10 senators and governors. Ruto just need to have direct support of 25%-30%. And get somebody else willing to bring in 20% for in a power sharing deal. That is GEMA. If that doesn't work he'll need to get two or three people each bringing 10% or about. The 5% he will collect here and there..from small tribes.
You seem to think to become Kenya PORK you have to be liked by 80% of the all people? Actually no. Uhuru real and only direct support is from GEMA. That is where 90% of TNA mps are from. But he is PORK as you speak. Ruto's Kalenjin by 2022 will be equal to Uhuru's Kikuyus. His pastoralist base will counter Meru & EMbu...so nobody has the key to statehouses.
Raila with his national appeal is now been rated in 20s!
Of course tribal alliances matter. For them to work, though, you have to be able to sell a candidate to a different tribe. I am not seeing anyone else buying into Ruto outside his tribe. Maybe shaky support from a few pastoralist communities.
We are already hearing noises from his best option.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl9-fxQWkAAEbFv.jpg)
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Pundit
are you here not aiming your guns at the messenger and ignoring the sender and the message?
It is not CORD, Raila or Kajwang speaking. These remarks are coming from the heart of GEMA. We have heard them before from some commoners and ignored them. In fact the newspapers and TVs have carried these because of the nature not the people speaking. Not two by the way. Three:
1. Governor Munya
2. Governor Kabogo
3. Senator Njoroge
There is no non Kikuyu / GEMA who has made those statements.
I can tell you for free that CORD is not banking on Ruto dumping Uhuru. Our plans are to beat Uhuru and Ruto together. You speak of Uhuru expanding his vote and I see no evidence of that except cooked up opinion polls. If CORD had lost support the MPs now on the take would have dared ton come out in the open.
Let me recoup: Gideon Mungaro and Idi are lying low sending feelers to us to understand that they are only looking for cash. Kilifi is 100% CORD and proof - we beat off Jubilee armed to the teeth with unlimited Euro Bond loot, state machinery harassment (Marwa) and massive one sided media propaganda (check the Nation, Citizen and KTN one sided coverage where CORD was either blacked out or accused of violence.
Intimidation: loyal CORD governors are being intimidated after Jubilee failed to buy them and realized it had no support.
1. Oparanya arrested
2. Joho harassed over his personal security
3. Governor Nathif Jama arrested
All this time corrupt Jubilee and rebel CORD officials are feted by Uhuru and Ruto. For example Mutua who belongs in Kamiti.
I have no idea where Jubilee has expanded support. For Joe Mutambu to lie he will deliver votes to Jubilee in Kalonzo's home area is to treat Kalonzo as if he were Mudavadi. Kalembe Ndile could not win his seat twice and Jubilee thinks he will deliver in Kitui? Again these MPs would have openly defected if they knew Jubilee was popular. Those who have tried like Mumias MP Benjamin Jomo Washiali have had to flee funerals amid heavy jubilee provided security.
Tell me where this support is bro
I think Synovate here are on point. Uhuru has added more votes to his 2012 baskets. They were running as ICC indictee with scare mongering from everyone including Obama but managed to ran a good campaign.
Ruto will work with what he has. I don't know who the kikuyus are planning to support in 2022 but I know right now most GEMA mps are fighting to become Ruto's DP. I also know Ruto has the genuine support and friendship of Uhuru -- who is the undisputed leader of GEMA. That is good base to start.
Again at the risk of repeating myself. Ruto plan A is that Uhuru and GEMA will support him. In case they don't support him --his plan B is to retain most of Jubilee support and make coalition with another strong party. GEMA will also need to make another pact. Nobody can do it alone. Every of the big tribes and few second tier tribes will all be looking to make deals and alliances.
So far all we hear is the same BULLSHIET we heard prior to 2013 that Kikuyu and Kalenjin will not vote in the same basket immediately after PEV. That never panned out as planned. The tatulogy has now morphed into Kikuyus are planning not to support Ruto....and we have evidence of two people...while ignoring evidence of 98 others who have endorsed Ruto.
All we hear are guys who clearly don't like Ruto trying to advice him on what is the best for him. The advice is the rocket science of kikuyus will not support you. Like they've gone to 2022 and came back.
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I see you can count with a single hand all the guys who have express some reservation of DP Ruto winning GEMA vote; I cannot count how many have endorsed Ruto; Kabogo himself is busy trying to position himself as Ruto DP. Obviously we will have a long time to revisit this isssue..till the night of 2022 elections. So I let that rest.
As for Uhuru winning by more by 50% he got last time. That too is just so self-evident we really don't have to sweat it. UhuRuto have kept their coalition intact and have made significant in roads in CORD areas. That should pump their numbers up. I am not sure how many Mps out of 130 CORD have that still are loyal --I'd put the number at about 50. Everywhere I look I see so many defectors.
These Mps I think don't see any Raila path to 2012. First CORD have to sort out MOU issues with Kalonzo. Then they have to demonstrate with facts how they intend to overturn Uhuru's 50%? Without that they will continue to bleed. Those Mps know Raila had the best shot in 2013 and totally blew it.
This seem impossible considering Jubilee has basically delivered on their promises, I have played some neat smart politics, remain united despite the hulabaloo about 2022 and already have a line up.
If Jubilee were to offer Kalonzo the Majority Leader now..I'd bet he'll ran for it. But that will complicate Ruto's 2012 bid. You want those guys tired and broke by 2022. So Ruto will never allow MaDVD or Kalonzo or any other potentially ambitious leader near Jubilee. The current Kabogos, Munyas and Njoroge are already a problem enough :) leave alone their hopelessness in taking Ruto head on. Ruto has to make sure that after Uhuru; it will be him and only him.
Jubilee has to really implode for Raila to come back from the dead.
Pundit
are you here not aiming your guns at the messenger and ignoring the sender and the message?
It is not CORD, Raila or Kajwang speaking. These remarks are coming from the heart of GEMA. We have heard them before from some commoners and ignored them. In fact the newspapers and TVs have carried these because of the nature not the people speaking. Not two by the way. Three:
1. Governor Munya
2. Governor Kabogo
3. Senator Njoroge
There is no non Kikuyu / GEMA who has made those statements.
I can tell you for free that CORD is not banking on Ruto dumping Uhuru. Our plans are to beat Uhuru and Ruto together. You speak of Uhuru expanding his vote and I see no evidence of that except cooked up opinion polls. If CORD had lost support the MPs now on the take would have dared ton come out in the open.
Let me recoup: Gideon Mungaro and Idi are lying low sending feelers to us to understand that they are only looking for cash. Kilifi is 100% CORD and proof - we beat off Jubilee armed to the teeth with unlimited Euro Bond loot, state machinery harassment (Marwa) and massive one sided media propaganda (check the Nation, Citizen and KTN one sided coverage where CORD was either blacked out or accused of violence.
Intimidation: loyal CORD governors are being intimidated after Jubilee failed to buy them and realized it had no support.
1. Oparanya arrested
2. Joho harassed over his personal security
3. Governor Nathif Jama arrested
All this time corrupt Jubilee and rebel CORD officials are feted by Uhuru and Ruto. For example Mutua who belongs in Kamiti.
I have no idea where Jubilee has expanded support. For Joe Mutambu to lie he will deliver votes to Jubilee in Kalonzo's home area is to treat Kalonzo as if he were Mudavadi. Kalembe Ndile could not win his seat twice and Jubilee thinks he will deliver in Kitui? Again these MPs would have openly defected if they knew Jubilee was popular. Those who have tried like Mumias MP Benjamin Jomo Washiali have had to flee funerals amid heavy jubilee provided security.
Tell me where this support is bro
I think Synovate here are on point. Uhuru has added more votes to his 2012 baskets. They were running as ICC indictee with scare mongering from everyone including Obama but managed to ran a good campaign.
Ruto will work with what he has. I don't know who the kikuyus are planning to support in 2022 but I know right now most GEMA mps are fighting to become Ruto's DP. I also know Ruto has the genuine support and friendship of Uhuru -- who is the undisputed leader of GEMA. That is good base to start.
Again at the risk of repeating myself. Ruto plan A is that Uhuru and GEMA will support him. In case they don't support him --his plan B is to retain most of Jubilee support and make coalition with another strong party. GEMA will also need to make another pact. Nobody can do it alone. Every of the big tribes and few second tier tribes will all be looking to make deals and alliances.
So far all we hear is the same BULLSHIET we heard prior to 2013 that Kikuyu and Kalenjin will not vote in the same basket immediately after PEV. That never panned out as planned. The tatulogy has now morphed into Kikuyus are planning not to support Ruto....and we have evidence of two people...while ignoring evidence of 98 others who have endorsed Ruto.
All we hear are guys who clearly don't like Ruto trying to advice him on what is the best for him. The advice is the rocket science of kikuyus will not support you. Like they've gone to 2022 and came back.
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It was never about counting thousands of people who may or may not endorse Ruto. It is Kenya we are speaking about. It took one Oloitiptip tip to force through a cabinet endorsement of Moi read by Kibaki. That started a movement that overturned all the schemes in place - not least with a slightly heavy hand of Moi's business partner Kanyotu. So there you go with numbers in Kenya. Kabogo, Munya or Njoroge speak for many and are sure playing to the prejudices of their supporters.
That said, it is one way to see it that Kabogo, Munya, Chege or Njoroge are attracting the attention of Ruto for the DP post. After all the person would have to command the support of GEMA and bring it with him to the table. There are many ways of looking at it too. Like the straight way: Kikuyus due to the many mass oathings since 1966 will not vote for a non Kikuyu.
Let me repeat: Ruto will probably take over JAP or Jubilee. The way Ngilu hang on to NARC and Karua hang on to NARC Kenya. Uhuru after having KANU hang around his neck like an albatross for years finally dumped it. What I am saying Pundit, it does not matter how "strong" a party if part of that strength does not include popular support. Kikuyus will dump a Ruto led party. It is then you will hear some of the things we hear them say about him when they take too much wine in our presence. Butcher of Eldoret is quite common to hear.
In your view, Ruto then realizes what 90% of the country already knows and pulls out plan B. He reaches out to the Luhya and gets a Luhya running mate. The Luhya abandon their alliance with the Luo and jump in bed to help the man who abandoned them in their fight against the Kikuyu domination win. You haven't stated how this Plan B will work ij detail and may be you should. Will Ruto expect Luhyas to be in the same alliance with Kikuyus? I can tell you in advance if the feelings on the ground remain as they are now with anger against Kikuyu domination, it will not work.
I still do not see where CORD has lost support. The MPs that Euro Bond Cash is buying are telling us that they need to refill their war-chests. A hint = there are very few complaints from our side and non of the MPs is defecting. If you have influence tell them to start compelling them to defect for the cash and see what happens bro.
Jubilee has stolen so much money they don't even know where it is. Some of the people distributing the cash as far flung Kikuyu "businessmen" and women in enclaves and islands in the country. We'll talk about that sometime.
Kalonzo was offered Majority Leader post in 2012 remember. Has it changed? I am one of those who think it is important for the three to publicize their Presidential candidacy. In fact Joho should declare as should someone from Kisii and NEP. It is a campaign ploy Pundit. If Kalonzo does not actively tell his people he will stand, he could cost us votes.
If MaDVD is not helping Uhuru destroy 300K votes how will he get the excuse to rig himself-in, in the first round? CORD is best served without MaDVD.
Thank God for Ruto keeping ambitious people away from Jubilee, we don't have to worry about any going there.
CORD has succeeded in isolating Kikuyus. Thanks to Uhuru. The next face is classified.
I see you can count with a single hand all the guys who have express some reservation of DP Ruto winning GEMA vote; I cannot count how many have endorsed Ruto; Kabogo himself is busy trying to position himself as Ruto DP. Obviously we will have a long time to revisit this isssue..till the night of 2022 elections. So I let that rest.
As for Uhuru winning by more by 50% he got last time. That too is just so self-evident we really don't have to sweat it. UhuRuto have kept their coalition intact and have made significant in roads in CORD areas. That should pump their numbers up. I am not sure how many Mps out of 130 CORD have that still are loyal --I'd put the number at about 50. Everywhere I look I see so many defectors.
These Mps I think don't see any Raila path to 2012. First CORD have to sort out MOU issues with Kalonzo. Then they have to demonstrate with facts how they intend to overturn Uhuru's 50%? Without that they will continue to bleed. Those Mps know Raila had the best shot in 2013 and totally blew it.
This seem impossible considering Jubilee has basically delivered on their promises, I have played some neat smart politics, remain united despite the hulabaloo about 2022 and already have a line up.
If Jubilee were to offer Kalonzo the Majority Leader now..I'd bet he'll ran for it. But that will complicate Ruto's 2012 bid. You want those guys tired and broke by 2022. So Ruto will never allow MaDVD or Kalonzo or any other potentially ambitious leader near Jubilee. The current Kabogos, Munyas and Njoroge are already a problem enough :) leave alone their hopelessness in taking Ruto head on. Ruto has to make sure that after Uhuru; it will be him and only him.
Jubilee has to really implode for Raila to come back from the dead.
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Well. I guess you're all set. And Ruto is in big big trouble. This is classified info. No doubt. Coz from where I sit...my view is that Ruto and Jubilee are set. Regarding appeasing Luo or Luhyas now for 2022..how did you manage to appease Kalonzo and Kamba after the "betrayal" of 2007. How is Ruto doing after he did his heroics in 2007. Now the derided Kalonzo is very liked in your places and Ruto hated.In short alliances and interests will change. In Jubilee there is no need to change a winning coalition. Ruto is already doing fine as DP sharing power at 50-50, is busy amazing war chest, with a party with third largest party with 78Mps and controls large portion of the country...about 20%..mainly in RV and pastoral diaspora. How you think he'll regress to become Ngilu or Karua is just wishful thinking. All Ruto to improve his 78 (now 100 plus ) MPs, Governors and Senators to large number from areas like coast, upper eastern, parts of western (Teso has 2 URP mps) and of course take over turkana and maa ---by funding mps and governors there--and helping them campaigning.
Anyway we can go on and on and on ..so let put this under classified. Ruto inspire a lot of "fear" in many areas of this country because folks know he got it all covered and there is no stopping him.
Raila & Kalonzo failed in their GEMA project coz they are just poor negotiators and don't understand how to play power games. So far Ruto is doing very well. It been 4yrs where GEMA has shared power down to the middle. Where ministries or parastal your thought were gema reserved are being run by Ruto allies. The power sharing from ministers, to ps, to parastals and ambassadors went so well....maybe you just don't understand GEMA. The same way Jaramogi couldn't hacked it severally with GEMA (60s and 90s) is the same way Raila failed to hack it (90s and 2000s)...while Moi and Ruto are making it look so easy!
Isn't that why Uhuru was created by Moi & supported Ruto back in 2001s :) while it was "easy" to just endorse Raila or Kalonzo! You think they had not seen he was a Kikuyu.If you cannot handle Kikuyu politicians don't think everyone else cannot.
Long and short. Uhuru wins 2017. Ruto wins 2022. I am sticking to that until I see evidence that this won't happen.
It was never about counting thousands of people who may or may not endorse Ruto. It is Kenya we are speaking about. It took one Oloitiptip tip to force through a cabinet endorsement of Moi read by Kibaki. That started a movement that overturned all the schemes in place - not least with a slightly heavy hand of Moi's business partner Kanyotu. So there you go with numbers in Kenya. Kabogo, Munya or Njoroge speak for many and are sure playing to the prejudices of their supporters.
That said, it is one way to see it that Kabogo, Munya, Chege or Njoroge are attracting the attention of Ruto for the DP post. After all the person would have to command the support of GEMA and bring it with him to the table. There are many ways of looking at it too. Like the straight way: Kikuyus due to the many mass oathings since 1966 will not vote for a non Kikuyu.
Let me repeat: Ruto will probably take over JAP or Jubilee. The way Ngilu hang on to NARC and Karua hang on to NARC Kenya. Uhuru after having KANU hang around his neck like an albatross for years finally dumped it. What I am saying Pundit, it does not matter how "strong" a party if part of that strength does not include popular support. Kikuyus will dump a Ruto led party. It is then you will hear some of the things we hear them say about him when they take too much wine in our presence. Butcher of Eldoret is quite common to hear.
In your view, Ruto then realizes what 90% of the country already knows and pulls out plan B. He reaches out to the Luhya and gets a Luhya running mate. The Luhya abandon their alliance with the Luo and jump in bed to help the man who abandoned them in their fight against the Kikuyu domination win. You haven't stated how this Plan B will work ij detail and may be you should. Will Ruto expect Luhyas to be in the same alliance with Kikuyus? I can tell you in advance if the feelings on the ground remain as they are now with anger against Kikuyu domination, it will not work.
I still do not see where CORD has lost support. The MPs that Euro Bond Cash is buying are telling us that they need to refill their war-chests. A hint = there are very few complaints from our side and non of the MPs is defecting. If you have influence tell them to start compelling them to defect for the cash and see what happens bro.
Jubilee has stolen so much money they don't even know where it is. Some of the people distributing the cash as far flung Kikuyu "businessmen" and women in enclaves and islands in the country. We'll talk about that sometime.
Kalonzo was offered Majority Leader post in 2012 remember. Has it changed? I am one of those who think it is important for the three to publicize their Presidential candidacy. In fact Joho should declare as should someone from Kisii and NEP. It is a campaign ploy Pundit. If Kalonzo does not actively tell his people he will stand, he could cost us votes.
If MaDVD is not helping Uhuru destroy 300K votes how will he get the excuse to rig himself-in, in the first round? CORD is best served without MaDVD.
Thank God for Ruto keeping ambitious people away from Jubilee, we don't have to worry about any going there.
CORD has succeeded in isolating Kikuyus. Thanks to Uhuru. The next face is classified.
I see you can count with a single hand all the guys who have express some reservation of DP Ruto winning GEMA vote; I cannot count how many have endorsed Ruto; Kabogo himself is busy trying to position himself as Ruto DP. Obviously we will have a long time to revisit this isssue..till the night of 2022 elections. So I let that rest.
As for Uhuru winning by more by 50% he got last time. That too is just so self-evident we really don't have to sweat it. UhuRuto have kept their coalition intact and have made significant in roads in CORD areas. That should pump their numbers up. I am not sure how many Mps out of 130 CORD have that still are loyal --I'd put the number at about 50. Everywhere I look I see so many defectors.
These Mps I think don't see any Raila path to 2012. First CORD have to sort out MOU issues with Kalonzo. Then they have to demonstrate with facts how they intend to overturn Uhuru's 50%? Without that they will continue to bleed. Those Mps know Raila had the best shot in 2013 and totally blew it.
This seem impossible considering Jubilee has basically delivered on their promises, I have played some neat smart politics, remain united despite the hulabaloo about 2022 and already have a line up.
If Jubilee were to offer Kalonzo the Majority Leader now..I'd bet he'll ran for it. But that will complicate Ruto's 2012 bid. You want those guys tired and broke by 2022. So Ruto will never allow MaDVD or Kalonzo or any other potentially ambitious leader near Jubilee. The current Kabogos, Munyas and Njoroge are already a problem enough :) leave alone their hopelessness in taking Ruto head on. Ruto has to make sure that after Uhuru; it will be him and only him.
Jubilee has to really implode for Raila to come back from the dead.
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I know you are saying it in jest but the reality is that Ruto is indeed in trouble. I finally got the video of Njoroge. He say Ruto has a lot of baggage on his shoulders. It looked smooth sailing but no more. I can buy your spin on it about how his people are controlling everything and are just waiting to take over except that it is simply not true. Kikuyus have their 50 plus % and Ruto has to share his 50 minus. First with them and then anybody else the bring in.
I do not believe you should compare Ruto to Moi and vice versa because it just does not fit. Moi did not make deals with Kikuyu elites. In fact he had enough problems driving through roadblocks, leave alone going to central. Moi's ally was Mama Ngina. She knew Kenyatta would not survive and took steps to help Moi and help herself.
It was simple: The other group would install Kenyatta's son Peter. He would finish Ngina's clan. She therefore had Koinange dispatched to Nairobi and a number of people she knew would interfere. She invited Moi man Kariithi to Mombasa to ensure GSU cooperated. She got Kanyotu, Gichuru (KAF) and Mulinge on board. Kwisha.
The Moi slapping Kikuyus were sidelined at the crucial moment. Moi repaid the debt.
If Uhuru is going to repay the favor it will be to Moi not Ruto.
We shall neutralize the war chest. It is a priority bro.
Jaramogi understood GEMA and so does Raila. The 24 years that Moi took is the reason you believe Ruto understands GEMA. He doesn't. GEMA will never willingly let the Presidency leave Central and suffer another 24 years. And certainly not under a Kalenjin. Let us review this here God and Veritas willing in 2018. Late 2017 will be too early and you will still be smarting from defeat.
Moi relied on Raila to navigate his last term. He groomed Uhuru to repay an old debt based on an oath he took. He knew there were qualified candidates.
Uhuru and Ruto are going home come next year. The temptation to stick around will be there and who knows they could try a Kibaki. Indications are they will try. We are prepared.
Well. I guess you're all set. And Ruto is in big big trouble. This is classified info. No doubt. Coz from where I sit...my view is that Ruto and Jubilee are set. Regarding appeasing Luo or Luhyas now for 2022..how did you manage to appease Kalonzo and Kamba after the "betrayal" of 2007. How is Ruto doing after he did his heroics in 2007. Now the derided Kalonzo is very liked in your places and Ruto hated.In short alliances and interests will change. In Jubilee there is no need to change a winning coalition. Ruto is already doing fine as DP sharing power at 50-50, is busy amazing war chest, with a party with third largest party with 78Mps and controls large portion of the country...about 20%..mainly in RV and pastoral diaspora. How you think he'll regress to become Ngilu or Karua is just wishful thinking. All Ruto to improve his 78 (now 100 plus ) MPs, Governors and Senators to large number from areas like coast, upper eastern, parts of western (Teso has 2 URP mps) and of course take over turkana and maa ---by funding mps and governors there--and helping them campaigning.
Anyway we can go on and on and on ..so let put this under classified. Ruto inspire a lot of "fear" in many areas of this country because folks know he got it all covered and there is no stopping him.
Raila & Kalonzo failed in their GEMA project coz they are just poor negotiators and don't understand how to play power games. So far Ruto is doing very well. It been 4yrs where GEMA has shared power down to the middle. Where ministries or parastal your thought were gema reserved are being run by Ruto allies. The power sharing from ministers, to ps, to parastals and ambassadors went so well....maybe you just don't understand GEMA. The same way Jaramogi couldn't hacked it severally with GEMA (60s and 90s) is the same way Raila failed to hack it (90s and 2000s)...while Moi and Ruto are making it look so easy!
Isn't that why Uhuru was created by Moi & supported Ruto back in 2001s :) while it was "easy" to just endorse Raila or Kalonzo! You think they had not seen he was a Kikuyu.If you cannot handle Kikuyu politicians don't think everyone else cannot.
Long and short. Uhuru wins 2017. Ruto wins 2022. I am sticking to that until I see evidence that this won't happen.
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Sounds like all you said btw 2007-2013 before losing badly.So let wait again. This debate in any case will never end. Even when Ruto has won in 2022...you will be here with the usual rumors,theories and speculations.
I know you are saying it in jest but the reality is that Ruto is indeed in trouble. I finally got the video of Njoroge. He say Ruto has a lot of baggage on his shoulders. It looked smooth sailing but no more. I can buy your spin on it about how his people are controlling everything and are just waiting to take over except that it is simply not true. Kikuyus have their 50 plus % and Ruto has to share his 50 minus. First with them and then anybody else the bring in.
I do not believe you should compare Ruto to Moi and vice versa because it just does not fit. Moi did not make deals with Kikuyu elites. In fact he had enough problems driving through roadblocks, leave alone going to central. Moi's ally was Mama Ngina. She knew Kenyatta would not survive and took steps to help Moi and help herself.
It was simple: The other group would install Kenyatta's son Peter. He would finish Ngina's clan. She therefore had Koinange dispatched to Nairobi and a number of people she knew would interfere. She invited Moi man Kariithi to Mombasa to ensure GSU cooperated. She got Kanyotu, Gichuru (KAF) and Mulinge on board. Kwisha.
The Moi slapping Kikuyus were sidelined at the crucial moment. Moi repaid the debt.
If Uhuru is going to repay the favor it will be to Moi not Ruto.
We shall neutralize the war chest. It is a priority bro.
Jaramogi understood GEMA and so does Raila. The 24 years that Moi took is the reason you believe Ruto understands GEMA. He doesn't. GEMA will never willingly let the Presidency leave Central and suffer another 24 years. And certainly not under a Kalenjin. Let us review this here God and Veritas willing in 2018. Late 2017 will be too early and you will still be smarting from defeat.
Moi relied on Raila to navigate his last term. He groomed Uhuru to repay an old debt based on an oath he took. He knew there were qualified candidates.
Uhuru and Ruto are going home come next year. The temptation to stick around will be there and who knows they could try a Kibaki. Indications are they will try. We are prepared.
Well. I guess you're all set. And Ruto is in big big trouble. This is classified info. No doubt. Coz from where I sit...my view is that Ruto and Jubilee are set. Regarding appeasing Luo or Luhyas now for 2022..how did you manage to appease Kalonzo and Kamba after the "betrayal" of 2007. How is Ruto doing after he did his heroics in 2007. Now the derided Kalonzo is very liked in your places and Ruto hated.In short alliances and interests will change. In Jubilee there is no need to change a winning coalition. Ruto is already doing fine as DP sharing power at 50-50, is busy amazing war chest, with a party with third largest party with 78Mps and controls large portion of the country...about 20%..mainly in RV and pastoral diaspora. How you think he'll regress to become Ngilu or Karua is just wishful thinking. All Ruto to improve his 78 (now 100 plus ) MPs, Governors and Senators to large number from areas like coast, upper eastern, parts of western (Teso has 2 URP mps) and of course take over turkana and maa ---by funding mps and governors there--and helping them campaigning.
Anyway we can go on and on and on ..so let put this under classified. Ruto inspire a lot of "fear" in many areas of this country because folks know he got it all covered and there is no stopping him.
Raila & Kalonzo failed in their GEMA project coz they are just poor negotiators and don't understand how to play power games. So far Ruto is doing very well. It been 4yrs where GEMA has shared power down to the middle. Where ministries or parastal your thought were gema reserved are being run by Ruto allies. The power sharing from ministers, to ps, to parastals and ambassadors went so well....maybe you just don't understand GEMA. The same way Jaramogi couldn't hacked it severally with GEMA (60s and 90s) is the same way Raila failed to hack it (90s and 2000s)...while Moi and Ruto are making it look so easy!
Isn't that why Uhuru was created by Moi & supported Ruto back in 2001s :) while it was "easy" to just endorse Raila or Kalonzo! You think they had not seen he was a Kikuyu.If you cannot handle Kikuyu politicians don't think everyone else cannot.
Long and short. Uhuru wins 2017. Ruto wins 2022. I am sticking to that until I see evidence that this won't happen.
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Hahaha I wonder which side is URP and which is TNA
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD2LzrxWgAAwbQu.jpg)
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STATEMENT ON THE 2022 JUBILEE PRESIDENTIAL TICKET
His Excellency the President has been categorical about the 2022 Jubilee ticket. He has made it very clear that the party will fully back Deputy President William Ruto.
First, the President has explained that 10 years of his own term are not long enough to implement the grand plan Jubilee has for Kenya.
He has pointed out this super plan needs about 20 years to implement.
The President is at the heart of Kenya's transformation through mega infrastructure, energy generation and distribution, quality education, modernising agriculture and industrialisation, among others.
The DP has been part of the agenda. It is, therefore, crucial that he be the one to take the agenda forward.
Two, Jubilee has brought bountiful peace not only in the Rift Valley, but also in many other conflict-prone areas.
The Jubilee ticket of President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto is good for its supporters and good for Kenya.
Three, the DP is doing an excellent job and has proved his abilities, acumen and diligence as a leader.
Those haranguing the country over the 2022 election are wasting their time.
The reaction of Jubilee supporters and many other Kenyans have been absolutely clear in their support for the Deputy President.
Munyori Buku
Senior Director of Public Communication
State House
Hahaha I wonder which side is URP and which is TNA
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD2LzrxWgAAwbQu.jpg)
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Tweet
Big news for CORD supporters as former powerful Agriculture minister Hon Kipruto Kirwa decamped Jubilee to join the Senator Moses Wetangula led Ford Kenya. He announced yesterday he will vie for the Trans Nzoia Senate seat. Hon Kirwa said he ditched Eugene Wamalwa’s New Ford Kenya for Ford Kenya as it is more popular.
He will face the incumbent Senator Henry Ndiema, who is also in Ford Kenya. Human rights crusader Ken Wafula and nominated Ford Kenya Senator Catherine Mukite are also in the race. Hon Kirwa spoke during a meeting in Sibanga addressed by Ford Kenya chief Moses Wetang’ula.
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Pundit
It is very simple and you know it too: Uhuru Kenyatta will cease to be the Kikuyu King Maker a day after he wins the second term (in the unlikely event he actually wins). Ruto will become expendable a few seconds after polling closes.
STATEMENT ON THE 2022 JUBILEE PRESIDENTIAL TICKET
His Excellency the President has been categorical about the 2022 Jubilee ticket. He has made it very clear that the party will fully back Deputy President William Ruto.
First, the President has explained that 10 years of his own term are not long enough to implement the grand plan Jubilee has for Kenya.
He has pointed out this super plan needs about 20 years to implement.
The President is at the heart of Kenya's transformation through mega infrastructure, energy generation and distribution, quality education, modernising agriculture and industrialisation, among others.
The DP has been part of the agenda. It is, therefore, crucial that he be the one to take the agenda forward.
Two, Jubilee has brought bountiful peace not only in the Rift Valley, but also in many other conflict-prone areas.
The Jubilee ticket of President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto is good for its supporters and good for Kenya.
Three, the DP is doing an excellent job and has proved his abilities, acumen and diligence as a leader.
Those haranguing the country over the 2022 election are wasting their time.
The reaction of Jubilee supporters and many other Kenyans have been absolutely clear in their support for the Deputy President.
Munyori Buku
Senior Director of Public Communication
State House
Hahaha I wonder which side is URP and which is TNA
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD2LzrxWgAAwbQu.jpg)
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And who is the new king that you'll unveil then? This is just delusion on grand scale. As long as Uhuru remain committed for Ruto to inherit him; Ruto should sleep easy. Uhuru is going to be PORK for 5yrs with Ruto as Deputy. They will both be leaders of Jubilee. I just don't see any Kikuyu in horizon who'll come and jump the queue. Who is that? peter kenneth :( Uhuru is very young dude so he's not hanging is boots in 2022 like Kibaki or Moi --he is actually going to be active leader of Jubilee. He might not be PORK or DPORK but he will be out there perhaps as "Chief Advisor". If you think Uhuru will unilaterally "donate" all the power and influence he has next year to some nobody like Njoroge or Kabogo --then you got jokes. They'll have to work their butt off to take it forcefully. As it is now --Uhuru can even appoint his wife or son as his "successor" --and nobody in GEMA have the cojones to take him on. Unlike even Kibaki he seem to have GEMA under lock n key. The same confidence that had Moi pulling Uhuru & Gideon on KANU. He earned that position thanks to PEV 2007. While Kibaki was sleeping in statehouse...he stuck his neck out and defended Kikuyuz who were being massacred everywhere...got into ICC trouble but out of it --he came out the DE FACTO Muthamaki. Kibaki did not "hand" it over. He took it by force. Now throw in Mama Ngina bottomless money. And by time you add "PORK" then Uhuru is already unassailable.
You just need to read that statement again for all the clues. Uhuru is saying he intends to ran the show with Ruto for 20yrs.
Pundit
It is very simple and you know it too: Uhuru Kenyatta will cease to be the Kikuyu King Maker a day after he wins the second term (in the unlikely event he actually wins). Ruto will become expendable a few seconds after polling closes.
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Pundit
Then explain this:
1. Why didn't GEMA follow Kibaki's plan to launch MaDVD?
2. Why did Michuki openly and defiantly announce Uhuru as the new Voice while Kibaki's agreements, understandings and pacts were ignored?
I do not know which Kikuyu will appear from the horizon. There are speculations but none well founded. In any case Uhuru emerged from nowhere to eclipse those we thought were ahead. So it is to be expected that others will emerge - even his own brother Muhoho.
Like I said, Kikuyus will look beyond Uhuru unless he is offering them what they want most: Keeping the presidency. Anybody who comes and says to hell with the Ruto agreement will be followed. He will have the numbers to cut a deal with some silly tribe in Kenya, may be even Luos or Luhyas. Didn't you just say there are no permanent enemies in politics?
Uhuru will not donate power. It will leave him once all he is promising is the departure of power from Kikuyuland. It will go to those or that promising to retain it. we have already seen that there will be many.
If he appoints his son, brother or wife that will keep him in power. It is the idea of taking the power out of Central that won't work.
He earned the power. And will lose it once he starts giving the presidency away. Moi had the power and started losing it big when he named Uhuru. Ruto took it when he stood up to Kikuyus and now is promising to bring it back. Its looking shaky now with all the cats being let out of the GEMA tent.
And who is the new king that you'll unveil then? This is just delusion on grand scale. As long as Uhuru remain committed for Ruto to inherit him; Ruto should sleep easy. Uhuru is going to be PORK for 5yrs with Ruto as Deputy. They will both be leaders of Jubilee. I just don't see any Kikuyu in horizon who'll come and jump the queue. Who is that? peter kenneth :( Uhuru is very young dude so he's not hanging is boots in 2022 like Kibaki or Moi --he is actually going to be active leader of Jubilee. He might not be PORK or DPORK but he will be out there perhaps as "Chief Advisor". If you think Uhuru will unilaterally "donate" all the power and influence he has next year to some nobody like Njoroge or Kabogo --then you got jokes. They'll have to work their butt off to take it forcefully. As it is now --Uhuru can even appoint his wife or son as his "successor" --and nobody in GEMA have the cojones to take him on. Unlike even Kibaki he seem to have GEMA under lock n key. The same confidence that had Moi pulling Uhuru & Gideon on KANU. He earned that position thanks to PEV 2007. While Kibaki was sleeping in statehouse...he stuck his neck out and defended Kikuyuz who were being massacred everywhere...got into ICC trouble but out of it --he came out the DE FACTO Muthamaki. Kibaki did not "hand" it over. He took it by force. Now throw in Mama Ngina bottomless money. And by time you add "PORK" then Uhuru is already unassailable.
You just need to read that statement again for all the clues. Uhuru is saying he intends to ran the show with Ruto for 20yrs.
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Kibaki was not a politician and we should not waste time discussing someone so inept. If Raila was not such a flawed politician - he would already had been PORK.
We can go on and on..about Ruto plan..like we did in pre-2013 and it panned out like I told you as earlier as 2008. You are just going to come up with more theories without even acknowledging all of your theories have basically bombed. While I predicted UhuRuto would form a coalition way back in 2008 and win 2013 - April 2008 to be precise- just after horrendous PEV- and it panned out exactly like it did.
About 10yrs later...and here we go again.
What will make Ruto 2022 PORK is the political LEVERAGE he will wield. That leverage will come from controlling Jubilee as this big party with more than 200mps and governors all over the country. Ruto is dumping URP so he can create a big party like KANU or ODM by design - Uhuru doesn't need a party -- and once the party is created - Ruto will fund and campaign for many MPs--he'll basically own the party -whoever will try to splinter it --will at best take 1/4 of the party. That leverage will come from having support in Kalenjin + pastoral + coastal +small tribes plus Jubilee allied Mps here and there. That leverage will come from having enough money, patronage and power that come with being DP and enjoying 50-50 sharing with Uhuru for 10yrs . Bar Moi - Ruto knows how to use money in politics, Raila and Kibaki are just too "stingy" to understand what money can do for you in politics. That leverage will come from Ruto being such a fearful and consummate politician Uhuru would dread starting a fight by even suggesting Ruto is not the annointed one. His gov will basically become impossible to govern if he attempted to short-change Ruto post 2022. That leverage come with thousands of Kikuyus settled in RV....who are living in an "uneasy" peace thanks to Jubilee. Any "shafting" of Ruto will bare old wounds open and that is not something anybody wants. And the most important leverage of course is the fact that Ruto & Uhuru do actually get along very well.
Now when it come to Kikuyu or GEMA. I think you need to understand they have also huge leverage. They control anything btw 25-30% of political vote. But unlike previous constitution , you have to nail it 50% plus one, you need a coalition. The new kikuyu upstart will have to nail the whole of GEMA and get somebody else who will support him..get another 20%..from maybe only Raila?. That won't be easy. That cannot be done in few days...definitely impossible without Uhuru support.
So yeah many ambitious kikuyu political upstarts will try to leverage GEMA's & their natural allies (like part of Gusii) nearly 30% and go for it...but I don't see any evidence they'll succeed!
My impeccable punditry (see previous records :)) tells me 1) Uhuru is shoe in for 2017 2) Ruto is shoe in for 2022. When I get evidence otherwise (beyond mere wishes) then I'll change my mind.
Pundit
Then explain this:
1. Why didn't GEMA follow Kibaki's plan to launch MaDVD?
2. Why did Michuki openly and defiantly announce Uhuru as the new Voice while Kibaki's agreements, understandings and pacts were ignored?
I do not know which Kikuyu will appear from the horizon. There are speculations but none well founded. In any case Uhuru emerged from nowhere to eclipse those we thought were ahead. So it is to be expected that others will emerge - even his own brother Muhoho.
Like I said, Kikuyus will look beyond Uhuru unless he is offering them what they want most: Keeping the presidency. Anybody who comes and says to hell with the Ruto agreement will be followed. He will have the numbers to cut a deal with some silly tribe in Kenya, may be even Luos or Luhyas. Didn't you just say there are no permanent enemies in politics?
Uhuru will not donate power. It will leave him once all he is promising is the departure of power from Kikuyuland. It will go to those or that promising to retain it. we have already seen that there will be many.
If he appoints his son, brother or wife that will keep him in power. It is the idea of taking the power out of Central that won't work.
He earned the power. And will lose it once he starts giving the presidency away. Moi had the power and started losing it big when he named Uhuru. Ruto took it when he stood up to Kikuyus and now is promising to bring it back. Its looking shaky now with all the cats being let out of the GEMA tent.
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Pundit
I do not fudge or twist facts:
1. I expressed doubts about the viability of a Kalenjin - Kikuyu alliance based on the vitriol from both sides. I was not, unlike you privy to any secret deals and horse trading behind the scenes leading to the Naivasha Betrayal by Ruto. In hindsight your subdued reaction to the Naivasha events should have alerted me to a deeper malaise. That I have admitted several times. It was a genius move that caught us unawares. That the people followed even surprised nay shocked me. Which led to
2. I withdrew from the 2013 elections. Look all over the web to find any comment or speculation about it and collect a prize if you find anything linked to me.
2 (above) was a protest against the stupidity of voters. It dawned on me that the events of 2008 were stopped prematurely before Kenyans learned their lessons. Political opportunism based on complete renunciation of all know values of human decency just for political office came out clearly.
You may now understand where I am coming from when I oppose Uhuru and Ruto. I detest the fact that they made nonsense of the new constitution and have savaged it even more after seizing power.
Kibaki was not a politician and we should not waste time discussing someone so inept. If Raila was not such a flawed politician - he would already had been PORK.
We can go on and on..about Ruto plan..like we did in pre-2013 and it panned out like I told you as earlier as 2008. You are just going to come up with more theories without even acknowledging all of your theories have basically bombed. While I predicted UhuRuto would form a coalition way back in 2008 and win 2013 - April 2008 to be precise- just after horrendous PEV- and it panned out exactly like it did.
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We can go on and on. It won't end until perhaps September 2017.
The bottom line here is tribalism. Kalenjins came to the rescue of Kikuyus in 2013. They had run out of tribes to cheat and dump.
You are telling me that you have figured out a formula or an antidote to this. We just have to wait and see.
Kibaki was not a politician and we should not waste time discussing someone so inept. If Raila was not such a flawed politician - he would already had been PORK.
We can go on and on..about Ruto plan..like we did in pre-2013 and it panned out like I told you as earlier as 2008. You are just going to come up with more theories without even acknowledging all of your theories have basically bombed. While I predicted UhuRuto would form a coalition way back in 2008 and win 2013 - April 2008 to be precise- just after horrendous PEV- and it panned out exactly like it did.
About 10yrs later...and here we go again.
What will make Ruto 2022 PORK is the political LEVERAGE he will wield. That leverage will come from controlling Jubilee as this big party with more than 200mps and governors all over the country. Ruto is dumping URP so he can create a big party like KANU or ODM by design - Uhuru doesn't need a party -- and once the party is created - Ruto will fund and campaign for many MPs--he'll basically own the party -whoever will try to splinter it --will at best take 1/4 of the party. That leverage will come from having support in Kalenjin + pastoral + coastal +small tribes plus Jubilee allied Mps here and there. That leverage will come from having enough money, patronage and power that come with being DP and enjoying 50-50 sharing with Uhuru for 10yrs . Bar Moi - Ruto knows how to use money in politics, Raila and Kibaki are just too "stingy" to understand what money can do for you in politics. That leverage will come from Ruto being such a fearful and consummate politician Uhuru would dread starting a fight by even suggesting Ruto is not the annointed one. His gov will basically become impossible to govern if he attempted to short-change Ruto post 2022. That leverage come with thousands of Kikuyus settled in RV....who are living in an "uneasy" peace thanks to Jubilee. Any "shafting" of Ruto will bare old wounds open and that is not something anybody wants. And the most important leverage of course is the fact that Ruto & Uhuru do actually get along very well.
Now when it come to Kikuyu or GEMA. I think you need to understand they have also huge leverage. They control anything btw 25-30% of political vote. But unlike previous constitution , you have to nail it 50% plus one, you need a coalition. The new kikuyu upstart will have to nail the whole of GEMA and get somebody else who will support him..get another 20%..from maybe only Raila?. That won't be easy. That cannot be done in few days...definitely impossible without Uhuru support.
So yeah many ambitious kikuyu political upstarts will try to leverage GEMA's & their natural allies (like part of Gusii) nearly 30% and go for it...but I don't see any evidence they'll succeed!
My impeccable punditry (see previous records :)) tells me 1) Uhuru is shoe in for 2017 2) Ruto is shoe in for 2022. When I get evidence otherwise (beyond mere wishes) then I'll change my mind.
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Pundit
Those Kikuyus we speak to and trust me we reach quite high are very candid. They need Ruto alive up to the moment the last person votes. After that he is expendable. So if he is planning on all these things, he better hire a lot of loyal food testers.
What will make Ruto 2022 PORK is the political LEVERAGE he will wield. That leverage will come from controlling Jubilee as this big party with more than 200mps and governors all over the country. Ruto is dumping URP so he can create a big party like KANU or ODM by design - Uhuru doesn't need a party -- and once the party is created - Ruto will fund and campaign for many MPs--he'll basically own the party -whoever will try to splinter it --will at best take 1/4 of the party. That leverage will come from having support in Kalenjin + pastoral + coastal +small tribes plus Jubilee allied Mps here and there. That leverage will come from having enough money, patronage and power that come with being DP and enjoying 50-50 sharing with Uhuru for 10yrs . Bar Moi - Ruto knows how to use money in politics, Raila and Kibaki are just too "stingy" to understand what money can do for you in politics. That leverage will come from Ruto being such a fearful and consummate politician Uhuru would dread starting a fight by even suggesting Ruto is not the annointed one. His gov will basically become impossible to govern if he attempted to short-change Ruto post 2022. That leverage come with thousands of Kikuyus settled in RV....who are living in an "uneasy" peace thanks to Jubilee. Any "shafting" of Ruto will bare old wounds open and that is not something anybody wants. And the most important leverage of course is the fact that Ruto & Uhuru do actually get along very well.
Now when it come to Kikuyu or GEMA. I think you need to understand they have also huge leverage. They control anything btw 25-30% of political vote. But unlike previous constitution , you have to nail it 50% plus one, you need a coalition. The new kikuyu upstart will have to nail the whole of GEMA and get somebody else who will support him..get another 20%..from maybe only Raila?. That won't be easy. That cannot be done in few days...definitely impossible without Uhuru support.
So yeah many ambitious kikuyu political upstarts will try to leverage GEMA's & their natural allies (like part of Gusii) nearly 30% and go for it...but I don't see any evidence they'll succeed!
My impeccable punditry (see previous records :)) tells me 1) Uhuru is shoe in for 2017 2) Ruto is shoe in for 2022. When I get evidence otherwise (beyond mere wishes) then I'll change my mind.
Pundit
Then explain this:
1. Why didn't GEMA follow Kibaki's plan to launch MaDVD?
2. Why did Michuki openly and defiantly announce Uhuru as the new Voice while Kibaki's agreements, understandings and pacts were ignored?
I do not know which Kikuyu will appear from the horizon. There are speculations but none well founded. In any case Uhuru emerged from nowhere to eclipse those we thought were ahead. So it is to be expected that others will emerge - even his own brother Muhoho.
Like I said, Kikuyus will look beyond Uhuru unless he is offering them what they want most: Keeping the presidency. Anybody who comes and says to hell with the Ruto agreement will be followed. He will have the numbers to cut a deal with some silly tribe in Kenya, may be even Luos or Luhyas. Didn't you just say there are no permanent enemies in politics?
Uhuru will not donate power. It will leave him once all he is promising is the departure of power from Kikuyuland. It will go to those or that promising to retain it. we have already seen that there will be many.
If he appoints his son, brother or wife that will keep him in power. It is the idea of taking the power out of Central that won't work.
He earned the power. And will lose it once he starts giving the presidency away. Moi had the power and started losing it big when he named Uhuru. Ruto took it when he stood up to Kikuyus and now is promising to bring it back. Its looking shaky now with all the cats being let out of the GEMA tent.
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Looks like some votes are escaping the jubilee net contrary to what you said:
Former Agriculture minister Kipruto Kirwa (pictured) has joined Ford Kenya. He announced yesterday he will vie for the Trans Nzoia Senate seat. Kirwa said he ditched New Ford Kenya for Ford Kenya as it is more popular.
He will face the incumbent Senator Henry Ndiema, who is also in Ford Kenya. Human rights crusader Ken Wafula and nominated Ford Kenya Senator Catherine Mukite are also in the race. Kirwa spoke during a meeting in Sibanga addressed by Ford Kenya chief Moses Wetang’ula.
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/06/28/kirwa-joins-ford-k-says-he-will-run-for-senate_c1376211?platform=hootsuite
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Pundit
we have to ignore this? The ordinary Kikuyu must also ignore this?
Ruto is trying to blackmail the Kikuyu community when we know very well he is adding no value to Kenyatta’s 2017 bid. -Sen Njoroge.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmBYStiWkAUnxHl.jpg)
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When did I ever listen to ordinary Luo or Kikuyu or Kalenjin. Who the hell give a damn about what they think. You listen to political leaders with influence. Again not some washed up dude like Kirwa..who is resigning from NFK for the third time I think this year alone..hoping to curry favour with Luhya votes in TransZoia.
I am not privy to any secrets or any inner workings. I just Know who to listen to. Right now don't waste time listening to Luo..listen to Raila..Kalenjin..listen to Ruto...and GEMA..listen to Uhuru..the rest can make noise till cows come back..after they have had their water....where frogs were making noise too.
How do we listen to Uhuru or Ruto or Raila... by listening keenly to their KEY ALLIES. We are spending acres here discussing somebody called Paul Njoroge who we never heard of and who apparently made to senate on account on suing TNA and going in for being disabled? Or are will also listening to people like Munya and Kabogo and Isaac Ruto who are facing hell on their counties..and trying to intimidate Jubilee for free tickets..or find a way to escape being knocked out in nomination phase.
Uhuru has spoken very clearly to the nation. It Ruto in 2022. What more do you want to hear. What the ordinary kikuyu think? Who cares? When did that matter? Who cares what I as RV Pundit think -- NOBODY. I haven't earn the right to be heard. Ruto speak for Kalenjin...if I disagree...too bad for me.
Pundit
we have to ignore this? The ordinary Kikuyu must also ignore this?
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It's one of those threads that can lead to endless back and forth. 2022 Ruto will either perform magic and get GEMA behind him. Or he won't.
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Pundit
This is somewhat contradictory especially when you then want Kabogo, Munya and Njoroge ignored.
When did I ever listen to ordinary Luo or Kikuyu or Kalenjin. Who the hell give a damn about what they think. You listen to political leaders with influence. Again not some washed up dude like Kirwa..who is resigning from NFK for the third time I think this year alone..hoping to curry favour with Luhya votes in TransZoia.
I am not privy to any secrets or any inner workings. I just Know who to listen to. Right now don't waste time listening to Luo..listen to Raila..Kalenjin..listen to Ruto...and GEMA..listen to Uhuru..the rest can make noise till cows come back..after they have had their water....where frogs were making noise too.
How do we listen to Uhuru or Ruto or Raila... by listening keenly to their KEY ALLIES. We are spending acres here discussing somebody called Paul Njoroge who we never heard of and who apparently made to senate on account on suing TNA and going in for being disabled? Or are will also listening to people like Munya and Kabogo and Isaac Ruto who are facing hell on their counties..and trying to intimidate Jubilee for free tickets..or find a way to escape being knocked out in nomination phase.
Uhuru has spoken very clearly to the nation. It Ruto in 2022. What more do you want to hear. What the ordinary kikuyu think? Who cares? When did that matter? Who cares what I as RV Pundit think -- NOBODY. I haven't earn the right to be heard. Ruto speak for Kalenjin...if I disagree...too bad for me.
Pundit
we have to ignore this? The ordinary Kikuyu must also ignore this?
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Senator Njoroge insists he's speaking for the silent majority in Central Kenya. He is off to the airwaves.
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And Uhuru & other leaders speaks for the noisy minority I guess. Nobody expect Ruto or Uhuru to win 100% of GEMA votes in 2017 or 2022. There are the Martha Karuas who will oppose them. Njoroge just joined her in opposition on his way to farming -because his position is now untenable.
Senator Njoroge insists he's speaking for the silent majority in Central Kenya. He is off to the airwaves.
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If Jubilee were to offer Kalonzo the Majority Leader now..I'd bet he'll ran for it. But that will complicate Ruto's 2012 bid. You want those guys tired and broke by 2022. So Ruto will never allow MaDVD or Kalonzo or any other potentially ambitious leader near Jubilee.
Jubilee has to really implode for Raila to come back from the dead.
Kalonzo and Mudavadi also want Raila broke and tired in 2022 :o :o :o
No way they will continue prolonging Railas political life by continuing to support him. Here is how Jubilee will play it, equip the two financially to be able to run their on campaigns
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Kalonzo and Mudavadi also want Raila broke and tired in 2022 :o :o :o
No way they will continue prolonging Railas political life by continuing to support him. Here is how Jubilee will play it, equip the two financially to be able to run their on campaigns
It is Raila who rehabilitated the two. Mudavadi after his flip-flopping in 2002 led to his rejection by even his own people. In Kalonzo's case after Kikuyus repeated what they had done to Jaramogi, Awori and (if he had not died) Wamalwa
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And what did Raila or "luos" do to Wamalwa way back in 96? What did he do to Ruto after getting NARA. Every politician out there is looking for himself in a very competitive field where stabbing someone on the back is part of the deal.
It is Raila who rehabilitated the two. Mudavadi after his flip-flopping in 2002 led to his rejection by even his own people. In Kalonzo's case after Kikuyus repeated what they had done to Jaramogi, Awori and (if he had not died) Wamalwa
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Raila is and has been kaput for some years now. Jubilee [Ruto] would be nuts to equip Kalonzo or MaDVD -his potential competitors in 2022. You want Ruto dealing with younger generation - Mutuas -Kabogos-Johos - Namwambas -Eugene - Karuas - Kenneth. That will be very easy competition to deal with. Madvd & Kalonzo & Raila are Ruto's age & political "seniors" although Ruto right now sit just behind or equal to Raila as second or third most powerful political player.
Kalonzo and Mudavadi also want Raila broke and tired in 2022 :o :o :o
No way they will continue prolonging Railas political life by continuing to support him. Here is how Jubilee will play it, equip the two financially to be able to run their on campaigns
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmQfr7GVUAUYRLQ.jpg)
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Bumped. Who and where is Simanova?
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Kikuyus do not need to dump Ruto in 2022. They can vote for him but their turnout will not be like 2013 and 2017 where even the terminal ill and some dead ones voted. The Kikuyus will accept any result and will never come out on the streets to fight for "their amn". Kikuyus are very pragmatic and little emotions unlike many other ethnic groups in Kenya. They will just move on and leave the Kales to fight their fight.
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Kikuyus do not need to dump Ruto in 2022. They can vote for him but their turnout will not be like 2013 and 2017 where even the terminal ill and some dead ones voted. The Kikuyus will accept any result and will never come out on the streets to fight for "their amn". Kikuyus are very pragmatic and little emotions unlike many other ethnic groups in Kenya. They will just move on and leave the Kales to fight their fight.
TBH Kikuyus started the fight for liberation and equality and democracy in Kenya count from 1920s, they fatigued and luos took up the fight, its now turn of another kabila as luos have also fatigued and given up.
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TBH Kikuyus started the fight for liberation and equality and democracy in Kenya count from 1920s, they fatigued and luos took up the fight, its now turn of another kabila as luos have also fatigued and given up.
If Raila takes PORK only Kikuyu will oppose him after betrayal and big scandals. Once he moves their cheese. Kalenjin freeloaders have no backbone for maandamano. Moi promptly folded KADU and joined Jomo in the 60s.
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Let the Turkanas now take up the fight. :D :D :D
TBH Kikuyus started the fight for liberation and equality and democracy in Kenya count from 1920s, they fatigued and luos took up the fight, its now turn of another kabila as luos have also fatigued and given up.