Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Pajero on May 25, 2016, 01:57:03 PM
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Did Mutahi Ngunyi let the cat out of the bag?
POLITICA ...Kikuyus will NEVER allow Ruto to be President, 2007 is still FRESH in their minds
Charismatic political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi believes that William Ruto will never be President because the Kikuyu nation might not allow it.
Speaking a while ago at his Museum Hill office, Ngunyi said that the 2007 post election violence is still fresh in their minds in the minds of Kikuyus and they still believe that Ruto masterminded it.
Ngunyi also accentuated the fact that Kikuyus know deep down their hearts that Raila NEVER played any role in taking anyone to The Hague and that his was a fight for justice following his alleged stolen victory.
“I will be surprised if the Deputy President tells me he believes he is going to be President with the blessings of Kikuyus. If so, I’ll preempt that William doesn’t understand the Kikuyu politics. Kikuyus in grass-root still believe that he is the man that it is Ruto who is behind their 2007 troubles and no amount of political pacification will endear him to their hearts” Said Ngunyi.
“So far, Kikuyu elders have identified Uhuru’s successor and that is none other than Peter Kenneth. Just like 2007 when Uhuru supported the reelection of Mwai Kibaki who beat him in 2002, Kenneth will support the reelection of Uhuru Kenyatta – and I hope he is already advised to to that. When you see that sign during the campaigns, then advise Ruto to prepare to fight from elsewhere” Added Ngunyi.
“My brother, how do you convince someone who lost his relatives, money and property worth millions of shillings, to vote for the same person they believe is behind their ordeal? How do you start to convince someone whose house, animals and crops were taken away from him, to trust the person who took them away – and is sitting on the same property – while you are watching as an IDP?. The headache the Kikuyu nation is having now is how to handle Ruto or the Kalenjin shortchange when the time comes. I am saying this in reference to 2007 when Raila was shortchanged by Kibaki through the famous MOU and took it as a man. Likewise, Kalonzo was promised the Kikuyu support after he supported Kibaki’s 2007 controversial win but kicked out in 2013. He took it as a man and sought refuge in Raila Camp. Now it is Ruto and Kalenjins. They supported Kikuyus and Kikuyus ‘promised’ to support them in 2022 but they are not ready to do so. For the Luo and Kamba Nations swallowed the bitter pill of deceit. The question is, will THE famous Kalenjins take it seated down?” Concluded the brave political scientist who seemed embarrassed a little
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Did Mutahi Ngunyi let the cat out of the bag?
POLITICA ...Kikuyus will NEVER allow Ruto to be President, 2007 is still FRESH in their minds
Charismatic political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi believes that William Ruto will never be President because the Kikuyu nation might not allow it.
Speaking a while ago at his Museum Hill office, Ngunyi said that the 2007 post election violence is still fresh in their minds in the minds of Kikuyus and they still believe that Ruto masterminded it.
Ngunyi also accentuated the fact that Kikuyus know deep down their hearts that Raila NEVER played any role in taking anyone to The Hague and that his was a fight for justice following his alleged stolen victory.
“I will be surprised if the Deputy President tells me he believes he is going to be President with the blessings of Kikuyus. If so, I’ll preempt that William doesn’t understand the Kikuyu politics. Kikuyus in grass-root still believe that he is the man that it is Ruto who is behind their 2007 troubles and no amount of political pacification will endear him to their hearts” Said Ngunyi.
“So far, Kikuyu elders have identified Uhuru’s successor and that is none other than Peter Kenneth. Just like 2007 when Uhuru supported the reelection of Mwai Kibaki who beat him in 2002, Kenneth will support the reelection of Uhuru Kenyatta – and I hope he is already advised to to that. When you see that sign during the campaigns, then advise Ruto to prepare to fight from elsewhere” Added Ngunyi.
“My brother, how do you convince someone who lost his relatives, money and property worth millions of shillings, to vote for the same person they believe is behind their ordeal? How do you start to convince someone whose house, animals and crops were taken away from him, to trust the person who took them away – and is sitting on the same property – while you are watching as an IDP?. The headache the Kikuyu nation is having now is how to handle Ruto or the Kalenjin shortchange when the time comes. I am saying this in reference to 2007 when Raila was shortchanged by Kibaki through the famous MOU and took it as a man. Likewise, Kalonzo was promised the Kikuyu support after he supported Kibaki’s 2007 controversial win but kicked out in 2013. He took it as a man and sought refuge in Raila Camp. Now it is Ruto and Kalenjins. They supported Kikuyus and Kikuyus ‘promised’ to support them in 2022 but they are not ready to do so. For the Luo and Kamba Nations swallowed the bitter pill of deceit. The question is, will THE famous Kalenjins take it seated down?” Concluded the brave political scientist who seemed embarrassed a little
Thanks for this.
I've always stated that the chances of Ruto becoming president with the support of Central is never gonna happen for two reasons:
1. Ruto isn't pedigree
2. 2008 PEV
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Did Ngunyi really say that? It looks made-up.
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Is Ngunyi Uhuru. Uhuru is the guy who will make or break Ruto bid for presidency. As long as Uhuru want Ruto to be pork...he can do it anytime. He can for example quit some few months to election and have Ruto become PORK. He has already made Ruto Pork for 3 days when he attended ICC.
Ruto best bet is to stick with Uhuru. Gema as people cannot make you pork. They never made Uhuru even an MP before Moi gave him a lift. They never made Kibaki pork...it Raila's tosha which made him PORK when Kikuyus had basically abandoned him for Uhuru...after hated Moi had turned 360 and endorsed Uhuru.
Bottom-line...you need to understand the politics of kenya more deeply. The tribal politics controlled by tribal lords. Luos may dislike kikuyus but if Raila turn up and says Karua tosha....99% of Luos will vote there. The same can be said of major tribes.
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Did Ngunyi really say that? It looks made-up.
If he did, he said nothing newsworthy. Perhaps the details. But overall, nothing new. Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote. Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.
While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.
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This is flawed argument. It akin to argument Raila and his advisor banked on. That kalenjin will not vote for a Kikuyu just few years after killing and displacing a half million of them. That somehow Kikuyu and Kalenjin were oil and water. We now know that Kalenjin not only voted for Uhuru but are already decided on 2017.
This is a kin to dilemma ICC found themselves in...all over sudden the tables were turned on them. Folks including victims and witnesses decided to "move on" leaving the ICC holding an empty bag.
You need to understand our tribal politics more deeply. GEMA as people are not sophisticated to go rogue on their leaders. Neither are Luos or Kambas or Kalenjin. These communities are "hostages" to political kingpins. Luhyas and other tribes do not have such strong leaders....so they are more "free" to sort of choose ABC.If GEMA were sophisticated Martha Karua or Peter Kenneth would not have lost even in their own polling station.
And then consider come 2022...Kalenjin and Luhya will most likely be equal to Kikuyu vote...kikuyu pop has dropped from 22% to 20% to 17.5% in 99..and now it should be below 17%...while Luhya and Kalenjin are 14%.
If he did, he said nothing newsworthy. Perhaps the details. But overall, nothing new. Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote. Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.
While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.
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Interesting times coming ahead
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This is flawed argument. It akin to argument Raila and his advisor banked on. That kalenjin will not vote for a Kikuyu just few years after killing and displacing a half million of them. That somehow Kikuyu and Kalenjin were oil and water. We now know that Kalenjin not only voted for Uhuru but are already decided on 2017.
This is a kin to dilemma ICC found themselves in...all over sudden the tables were turned on them. Folks including victims and witnesses decided to "move on" leaving the ICC holding an empty bag.
You need to understand our tribal politics more deeply. GEMA as people are not sophisticated to go rogue on their leaders. Neither are Luos or Kambas or Kalenjin. These communities are "hostages" to political kingpins. Luhyas and other tribes do not have such strong leaders....so they are more "free" to sort of choose ABC.If GEMA were sophisticated Martha Karua or Peter Kenneth would not have lost even in their own polling station.
And then consider come 2022...Kalenjin and Luhya will most likely be equal to Kikuyu vote...kikuyu pop has dropped from 22% to 20% to 17.5% in 99..and now it should be below 17%...while Luhya and Kalenjin are 14%.
If he did, he said nothing newsworthy. Perhaps the details. But overall, nothing new. Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote. Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.
While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.
It will be interesting to see if GEMA votes out of character.
In 2002, GEMA were backing kamwana, even though his chances looked slim. As soon as Raila toshad Kibaki, they shifted en masse to Kibaki. Granted in 02 there was no leader they were hostage to. But the same will be the case in 2022; a lameduck won't have that much sway on GEMA. Ruto has peaked I think.
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Focussing on a single candidate alone in an election and trying to forecast is wrong, you must compare Ruto with a likely opponent. Is it Raila, Kalonzo, Weta, Mudavadi, Joho, Kenneth. Pick Ruto's opponent in 2022 and I will tell you who Kikuyus will vote for
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Ruto isn't popular anymore, he isn't even a worthy alliance for Cord. He betrayed Cord in the 11th hour just like Kalonzo did with Kibaki's reelection, just like Kibaki betrayed the NARC agreement of a one term presidency with Raila. This is just the GEMA status quo re-enacted over and over again spiralling Kenya into a failed state probably within a decade under Uhuru's steal as much as you want policies. Ruto's chance at the presidency is if Uhuru is assassinated.
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Did Ngunyi really say that? It looks made-up.
If he did, he said nothing newsworthy. Perhaps the details. But overall, nothing new. Ruto is not going to excite GEMA, but even more likely, he is not going to get their vote. Kamwana is on record himself, as being able to guarantee only his family, and I am assuming the nuclear version.
While there are valid questions like, where do they go?, it can be argued convincingly, we know where they won't go.
Windy City,
You nailed it perfectly. In stealing the 2007 election in the brazen manner they - Kibaki-Uhuru axis - did the target was as much Raila as it was Ruto.
I have no doubt in my mind that the Uhuru-Ruto axis will win reelection in 2017, and then enter the real night of long- knives. Say sometime in 2019 or 2020 with Uhuru's assent Ruto will be hit so hard from all directions that he won't know where to hide.
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Did Ngunyi really say that? It looks made-up.
MOON Ki,
If this was designed to be a hatchet job....it's very poorly done. Evidently the CORD think-tank seems to tank more than it thinks. There's absolutely no way that Ngunyi would say this before the 2017 elections. However, after Uhuru wins in 2017 then they'll gleefully eviscerate Ruto.
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Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told
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2022 is so many years. Worry about 2017.
Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told
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Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told (http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told)
Kabogo is getting ahead of himself. This number is meant to be played after 2017 and not a moment before.
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Negotiations will determine who Mt Kenya voters will support for the presidency in 2022, Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has said. In a thinly-veiled statement that may be seen as directed at Deputy President William Ruto, Mr Kabogo said the region would have to deliberate on who to support for the country's top seat come 2022. Kabogo said the region's support would not be automatic or guaranteed for any individual, adding that the region would not be compelled to support any preferred candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Speaking at Muiri farm in Juja, the county boss said the region had many votes and would have to chart its own political destiny once Uhuru was through with his constitutional two five-year terms. "Even if we promised someone a seat, we will have to sit down and talk. We will not just give away the seat like that. If you think because we agreed it will go like that... We have the votes and therefore have to be respected," said Kabogo. The governor said people should stop thinking that just because there was an agreement things would go as agreed. READ MORE Jubilee MPs in final push for Uhuruto's re-election vehicle There was no deal on IEBC at State House, says DP William Ruto JAP wins Lelmokwo/Ngechek by elections in a tough tussle with Kanu Kabogo's sentiments contradicted the President who during his tour of central Kenya in April asked voters in his Mt Kenya stronghold to support his deputy in the 2022 presidential election. Speaking in Kiambu town during the tour, Uhuru was eager to dispel fears that voters in the region would not back his deputy's bid after his second term expires. In an apparent move to rally the region behind his deputy, Uhuru made it clear that he intended to hand over the leadership baton to Ruto. "This is my brother who I have worked with for the sake of unity and development for all Kenyans. It is a journey that we started together and will finish together so that Kenyans can live in peace," the President said. "I have worked with this young man (Ruto) and I can assure you, my people, that he is capable of leading this country and carrying on the Jubilee development agenda." Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'a, a fierce Kabogo critic, claimed the governor had little say in deciding who the region would support. Ngewa MCA Karungo wa Thangw'a urged Mt Kenya voters to ignore Kabogo's comments and continue supporting the DP. Imenti South MP Kathuri Murungi said the region would support Ruto.
Read more at: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told (http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204378/mt-kenya-support-not-guaranteed-ruto-told)
Kabogo is getting ahead of himself. This number is meant to be played after 2017 and not a moment before.
Isn't Kabogo a loner in Jubilee?
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He certainly doesnt speak for Uhuru--who is the guy who will make Ruto pork.
Isn't Kabogo a loner in Jubilee?
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The silence in kikuyu land over Kabogos remarks should worry some people,only 4 mps from Kiambu who are known Kabogos nemesis have come out to openly condemn him.
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After 50% plus 1 requirement; no community in kenya can do it alone. Therefore it rather obvious that in 2017 or 2022 just like in 2013 coalition of big tribes has and must happen. Now it simple. in 2017-- Ruto & RV best deal is to get 50% with GEMA. In 2022...it will be the same...GEMA can choose to scuttle the coalition with RV...and both will ran to form other coalitions with rest of big tribes...and both may end up with a bad deal..or continue with 50-50.
It obvious 50-50 is the only deal after constitution 50% plus 1. Nobody can do it alone.
The silence in kikuyu land over Kabogos remarks should worry some people,only 4 mps from Kiambu who are known Kabogos nemesis have come out to openly condemn him.
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Whats Ruto's plan B,incase okuyus dont keep their promise????Fact is that if he rans without okuyu votes then he probably will end up no 3 behind Peter Kenneth and Raila Odinga.
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Ruto would have ended up 3rd in 2013. I doubt 10yrs later after 2013 as DP he will still end up 3rd. He certainly end up first or second. Whether anyone can meet the requirement in first round will depend on how the big 5 tribes align themselves.
As for peter kenneth...that is rather long shot :) . Where you get this idea that he is chosen gema successor of Uhuru is of course well known. From lalaland.
I don't see how Uhuru will mess up his legacy by backing anybody except Ruto. Some few in GEMA may revolt but the majority will follow Uhuru. Ruto will fill the gaps by appealing to small tribes. Ruto doesn't carry kikuyu hostility in places like coast or western...so he'll do better than Uhuru in many areas...except in Gusii & Kamba land.
Demographically Kikuyu pop in 2022 will not be any different from Kalenjin or Luhyaland. The gap in 2009 was 1.5m. Now it should be less than 1m and so in 2022..Ruto can choose btw a pure breed Kikuyu VP or even Meru VP.
Ruto continues to march on....as Raila continues to tank. Those are just stuborn facts.
Whats Ruto's plan B,incase okuyus dont keep their promise????Fact is that if he rans without okuyu votes then he probably will end up no 3 behind Peter Kenneth and Raila Odinga.
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Ruto cannot get votes outside kalenjin Rift,take that to nearest equity.maximum he can get is 1.5 from Nandi,Kericho,Bomet,UG and Baringo counties heavily dominated by Kalenjins.I dont know where you get the notion that Ruto can emerge no 1 or even 2,maybe if he is competing alone.
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That is based on what? More wishful thinking. URP which is Ruto primary party came third with impressive 78Mps. Uhuru's TNA had 85mps or so. Raila's ODM had 110 Mps. Kalonzo the fourth guy came distant third with 25mps. The same scenarios is replicated in senate and governor. URP controls more than 10 counties.. So what exactly make you think that Ruto has no vote outside kalenjin...when Ruto's URP won votes in NEP (where Ruto URP won 90% of all seats),Coast, Western, Maasai, Turkana, Borana, Samburu and name it.
And all this Ruto did while he was essentially running as DP and had ICC swords over his head...meaning he suspended his campaign and worked on Uhurus. Now Ruto is DP, has 50% of gov patronage and is busy amassing a resources.....another 5yrs..and he'll be unbeatable.
Right now Ruto is working hard to build bridges in places outside Nyanza..which is waste of time..and therefore it expected Luos will think Ruto is unloved everywhere else. It only in Luo Nyanza where Ruto "hatred" is right now high.
Ruto core support will remain Kalenjin. The next support base will come from pastoralist esp Matusa+iteso+somalis. Coast is a bit complicated for now but I think Ruto can easily win that over. That should take Ruto easily to 25%-30%. Leaving him looking for one guy from big tribe who will bring 20% to get 50%. That guy has to be either GEMA or a united Luhya (leader)--if one get ever there.
Ruto cannot get votes outside kalenjin Rift,take that to nearest equity.maximum he can get is 1.5 from Nandi,Kericho,Bomet,UG and Baringo counties heavily dominated by Kalenjins.I dont know where you get the notion that Ruto can emerge no 1 or even 2,maybe if he is competing alone.
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The silence in kikuyu land over Kabogos remarks should worry some people,only 4 mps from Kiambu who are known Kabogos nemesis have come out to openly condemn him.
Kabogo is sharing a badly kept secret.
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Hehehe Pajero, actually ODM just has elected 96Mps compared to 75Mps Ruto got :) :) here I was thinking Raila managed 110 :(
If we were to use MPs as measure of party strength and that is pretty solid indicator then
Raila had 27% --at his apex :) when he enjoyed half mkate patronage and appeared "unassailable".
Uhuru had 25%
Ruto had 21%
Kalonzo as always had 7.5%
If we use the senators ..elected :)...Raila has 10 (babu kweli)...Ruto has 9...Uhuru leads with 11.
If we use the governors elected...Uhuru come third with 8...Ruto has 10..and Raila has 16 (hapo amejaribu).
Keep dreaming on and on....and crying IEBC has stolen.
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Pundito,
You actually affirm my argument that Ruto is actually a nobody outside the kalenjin Rift.If you take a close look at the number of mps elect on URP ticket its about 62.Out of the 62, 46 come from his native Rift valley block.We can thus conclude that Rutos URP party is 80% kalenjins.(please prove me wrong).He has other 11 mps from NE,2 from Meru & Teso & 2 from coast.If mps then represent votes,then the 11 mps in NE cannot even give him 50,000 votes coz NE does no have tyranny.He cant count on the teso,meru & coast mps to give him votes,ie in teso he got the mps but the presidential votes went to Raila.
Now,compare URP and ODM.Railas ODM has 78 elected mps,out of this, only 22 are from his luo Nyanza base,which is approximately about 28%.what this implies is that Railas support base is higher than his luo nation base as opposed to Ruto who is more of a TRIBAL KING.Where Ruto is today is where Raila was in 1997 with his NDP.
Ruto is just hiding behind Uhurus & by extension kikuyus shadow but the moment he will be left to stand on his own which is highly likely in 2022,he will be exposed and his true numbers and political position will come out.By my own assesment in 2022 Ruto will just manage a paltry 10-15% of votes cast.
I rest my case.
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As always it hard to argue with someone who invent facts. What matters is not the colour of the cat but whether he kills the rat or not. Ruto has 78Mps. Uhuru had 85. Raila has 96Mps. The difference is mere 7 & 18mps. Ruto was not running for PORK and has never run for PORK. Ruto was not running as incumbent PM with a strong party like ODM.Everyone starts from somewhere. Raila when he ran in 1997 got how many votes outside Luo Nyanza. Not much. Then he joined KANU and took away some of KANU key constitutuencies esp in Coast & Parastal communities.
Ruto led the No campaign to win more than 30% of the national vote.Ruto party when it initially ran got 78Mps. That is very impressive. It also very impressive considering getting Kalenjin united is not easy thing. Ruto party managed to win votes all over.
10yrs from 2013...one can only imagine what Ruto party then will win...but definitely what is happening now....Ruto is slowly but surely taking back the KANU const of 90s from ODM....and Raila pretty much has nothing to offer anybody outside Luo Nyanza...which is why IEBC demos are now Kibera and Luo Nyanza affair.
Pundito,
You actually affirm my argument that Ruto is actually a nobody outside the kalenjin Rift.If you take a close look at the number of mps elect on URP ticket its about 62.Out of the 62, 46 come from his native Rift valley block.We can thus conclude that Rutos URP party is 80% kalenjins.(please prove me wrong).He has other 11 mps from NE,2 from Meru & Teso & 2 from coast.If mps then represent votes,then the 11 mps in NE cannot even give him 50,000 votes coz NE does no have tyranny.He cant count on the teso,meru & coast mps to give him votes,ie in teso he got the mps but the presidential votes went to Raila.
Now,compare URP and ODM.Railas ODM has 78 elected mps,out of this, only 22 are from his luo Nyanza base,which is approximately about 28%.what this implies is that Railas support base is higher than his luo nation base as opposed to Ruto who is more of a TRIBAL KING.Where Ruto is today is where Raila was in 1997 with his NDP.
Ruto is just hiding behind Uhurus & by extension kikuyus shadow but the moment he will be left to stand on his own which is highly likely in 2022,he will be exposed and his true numbers and political position will come out.By my own assesment in 2022 Ruto will just manage a paltry 10-15% of votes cast.
I rest my case.
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As always it hard to argue with someone who invent facts.
I found this one funny. Very, very funny.
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It even harder to debate someone who nitpick facts. For example in this thread; nobody makes a meal about the accuracy of the figures (it could be urp had 75 or 78 or 68) but you get the general arguments here; if we start nitpicking around facts; spawn threads with several links; we would never have a meaningful online debate. We would need to write thesis size posts with references.
I found this one funny. Very, very funny.