Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Globalcitizen12 on April 10, 2016, 07:29:53 PM
-
Can ruto dare to take on Uhuru by asking for his chance now? is too late for ruto to ask GEMA to change either support him or he goes for it alone? I think Ruto would emerge 2 in an general election that has Raila, Kalonzo, Uhuru running. The only scenario where ruto should not run is if CORD is intact because it means he can be third but even at that time he can still make a post election deal with either group.
So should Rift Valley stay in 50/50 or go for 100%?
-
50-50 is the new reality after constitution put 50% pass mark. There is no one who can go in without some form of coalition. If I were Ruto I'd want to enjoy 50-50 as long as it last. So 10yrs ad DPORK with 50% power and then maybe 10yrs as PORK with 50%. That is good deal.
-
Kenya has not benefited from the current breed of politicians. Yes there are millionaires but there are more "0"nailers. They have nothing. Children go to bed hungry and wake up hungry. Schools are a luxury ....
-
Ruto's challenge will appear in 2022 when Kindiki insist on DPORK. A Peter Kenneth can split Gema. His lucky bet would be Opposition disarray. He is best advised to complete his SGR and other 50-50 schemes under Jubilee.
-
Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).
-
Really, you said kikuyu and kalenjin were oil and water, would never mixed. Now I hear you say Ruto will never become pork. While we know Ruto has already become PORK for 3 days. All Ruto need to do to become PORK is to make a deal with Uhuru..for Uhuru to hand power to him....and go on extended holiday...just before the 2017 elections. Ruto get to ran 2017 as an incumbent. DPORK is not VP.
Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).
-
Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).
Ruto has a very strong chance of becoming PORK in 2022---in fact, the strongest among the current field of lacklustre candidates. All he has to do is stick with his GEMA friends, who will have no alternative but to back him in 2022. For its part, the Opposition can only help him: it continues to be mess, and, as things stand, 2017-2022 will be an even bigger mess, with a fight over Raila's replacement.
-
Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).
Ruto has a very strong chance of becoming PORK in 2022---in fact, the strongest among the current field of lacklustre candidates. All he has to do is stick with his GEMA friends, who will have no alternative but to back him in 2022. For its part, the Opposition can only help him: it continues to be mess, and, as things stand, 2017-2022 will be an even bigger mess, with a fight over Raila's replacement.
While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true.
-
While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true.
Reasons?
-
While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true.
Reasons?
It's really just a hunch. GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe. Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture. The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.
I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.
-
They have no policy, or if they did they are not telling voters.
Defeating Uhuru is no policy.
Ruto is home and dry.He has achieved his highest political office just like Kalonzo (2007-2013) and Mdvd.(2002).
Ruto has a very strong chance of becoming PORK in 2022---in fact, the strongest among the current field of lacklustre candidates. All he has to do is stick with his GEMA friends, who will have no alternative but to back him in 2022. For its part, the Opposition can only help him: it continues to be mess, and, as things stand, 2017-2022 will be an even bigger mess, with a fight over Raila's replacement.
While it may or may not be true, the GEMA path is definitely not true.
-
GEMA for now is Uhuru and Uhuru is gema. There were times when you had powerful gema elite...during weak kibaki regime maybe..but know what Uhuru says..GEMA does. If Uhuru wants Ruto to succeed and I don't see any reason why he doesn't; then Ruto is shoe-in.Most folks are yet to understand Kenya tribal politics and the game the tribal kings can play. Right now Raila, Uhuru and Ruto -and kalonzo--can basically tell their community to hate this guy today and to love him tomorrow.Madvd/Wetangula and other small players are playing in the second league.
Come 2022 I just don't see how GEMA will start a war with RV folks. They'll have to swallow it hard like Kalenjin swallowed by allowing another Gikuyu to rule them. Actually there is no swallowing; it will be 50-50 arrangement with Uhuru calling the shots post-retirement with proxy DP.
It's really just a hunch. GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe. Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture. The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.
I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.
-
GEMA for now is Uhuru and Uhuru is gema. There were times when you had powerful gema elite...during weak kibaki regime maybe..but know what Uhuru says..GEMA does. If Uhuru wants Ruto to succeed and I don't see any reason why he doesn't; then Ruto is shoe-in.Most folks are yet to understand Kenya tribal politics and the game the tribal kings can play. Right now Raila, Uhuru and Ruto -and kalonzo--can basically tell their community to hate this guy today and to love him tomorrow.Madvd/Wetangula and other small players are playing in the second league.
Come 2022 I just don't see how GEMA will start a war with RV folks. They'll have to swallow it hard like Kalenjin swallowed by allowing another Gikuyu to rule them. Actually there is no swallowing; it will be 50-50 arrangement with Uhuru calling the shots.
It's really just a hunch. GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe. Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture. The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.
I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.
To be fair, 2022 is too far away. Still, GEMA have an unbroken history. When kamwana is a lame duck President, they wont listen to him.
-
It's really just a hunch. GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe. Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture. The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.
I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.
Will not vote for Ruto? They know they can't go it alone. What are their other options? They either go with Ruto or accept someone they detest even more. At least Ruto they can control, if they compromise him enough and also throw enough goodies into the RV to ensure that he won't pull a "Moi". The other thing they will probably aim to do in 2017-2022 will be to entrench "our people" in important positions with security of tenure.
Issues like corruption and ethnic cleansing don't matter in Kenya. The elections are never on an objective basis. No doubt many are still aggrieved over things like Kiambaa, but there's money and power at stake!
-
If Uhuru really want Ruto to become PORK that will be easy breezy. Constitution allows him to resign anytime and let DPORK become PORK. So even today If Uhuru want Ruto to become PORK; he can just resign or go on holiday. Ruto is very very close to becoming PORK. Oops he was PORK for 3 days.
Making Uhuru happy should be Ruto's plan A. Plan B of course is to consolidate his RV bases and expand into other areas.
To be fair, 2022 is too far away. Still, GEMA have an unbroken history. When kamwana is a lame duck President, they wont listen to him.
-
If Uhuru really want Ruto to become PORK that will be easy breezy. Constitution allows him to resign anytime and let DPORK become PORK. So even today If Uhuru want Ruto to become PORK; he can just resign or go on holiday. Ruto is very very close to becoming PORK. Oops he was PORK for 3 days.
Making Uhuru happy should be Ruto's plan A. Plan B of course is to consolidate his RV bases and expand into other areas.
To be fair, 2022 is too far away. Still, GEMA have an unbroken history. When kamwana is a lame duck President, they wont listen to him.
I get what you are saying. But you have to rely on uncharacteristic behavior on the part of GEMA. Kamwana himself is on record as telling Ruto that he can only guarantee him his family support.
2017 is more predictable. In 5 years, anything would have happened triggering unpredictable alliances.
-
It's really just a hunch. GEMA will not vote for Ruto, because they are not in the habit of voting outside the tribe. Interestingly there will be no shortage of legitimate reasons to entrench this culture. The man has a well earned reputation for corruption, not to mention ethnic cleansing.
I think 2022 will become wide open enough for candidates of the Kaloozer mold to pitia katikati.
Will not vote for Ruto? They know they can't go it alone. What are their other options? They either go with Ruto or accept someone they detest even more. At least Ruto they can control, if they compromise him enough and also throw enough goodies into the RV to ensure that he won't pull a "Moi". The other thing they will probably aim to do in 2017-2022 will be to entrench "our people" in important positions with security of tenure.
Issues like corruption and ethnic cleansing don't matter in Kenya. The elections are never on an objective basis. No doubt many are still aggrieved over things like Kiambaa, but there's money and power at stake!
I suspect the current setup will unravel in 2022 leaving options wide open for new alliances.
I mention corruption and ethnic cleansing just to show that GEMA does not even have to rely solely on tribe to reject him, even if that is a primary reason. In other words, they can even reject him with respectable reasons.
-
The issue is GEMA succession. Meru claim its their chance after propping Kibaki and Uhuru. Ruto priority is to ensure Uhuru props up Kindiki or whoever to consolidate GEMA as DPORK.
2002 Moi managed to get RV under Uhuru. Ruto needed ICC and Kibaki patronage to pull RV in 2013. The biggest risk is GEMA split. GNU, APK and Kenneth-like parties can cause trouble. Don't be surprised to find Kiunjuri appointment is Ruto idea.
Issue is not Uhuru willingness but his ability to annoint a strong enough successor to back Ruto.
How sustainable is a two-region alliance?
-
I suspect the current setup will unravel in 2022 leaving options wide open for new alliances.
With one exception---Kibaki's first victory, which was after a very length beating from Moi----"tribe" is what matters to Kenya when it comes to voting, and one thing tha won't unravel in 2022 is the "our man" mentality.
I mention corruption and ethnic cleansing just to show that GEMA does not even have to rely solely on tribe to reject him, even if that is a primary reason. In other words, they can even reject him with respectable reasons.
Would corruption really be an issue for GEMA? There is definitely residual bitterness in relation to the ethnic cleansing, but it seems to have been decided that money and power are more important and that certain things will have to be swallowed.
The real question is this: If they reject Ruto, to whom will they turn? I see no reason to believe that they will be welcomed elsewhere with open arms.
-
Will not vote for Ruto? They know they can't go it alone. What are their other options?
It is too soon to know what the GEMA nation is planning, but my intuition is that Peter Kenneth will be their next choice. I have a gut feeling they are secretly grooming PK behind the scenes to take over the helm in 2022. Ruto has a daunting task ahead of him. GEMA will never allow him to get anywhere near the State House. Most Kikuyus can't bring themselves to admit although they believe deep down their hearts that Ruto was one of the masterminds of 2007 post election violence. Not only I am 100 percent certain that they won't vote for him in 2022, but they'll rather vote for another Njoroge or Kamau and will do so without a tad of guilt of voting for their own. Fourteen years in, Kikuyus are still battling a Moi hangover and it will probably take them another 30 years to recover. They have this notion that they are still cleaning up the aftermath of the previous 24 years of Moi era. It will probably take them eons to get over that reasoning. What is frightening to Kikuyus is another Moi or another tribe curtailing their rights, blocking their advancement and failing to protect them.
-
Here is Uhuru asking Mt kenya to back Ruto
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000198395/support-ruto-in-2022-uhuru-tells-mt-kenya
-
All the stars for now are aligned for Uhuru in 17 and Ruto in 2012. The factors that will work for ruto in 2012 include Uhuru/gema support, collapse of ICC games, new demographic changes by then and north rift oil that will be flowing donw.
-
WSR was paid billions by GEMA to back Uhuru. Alishalipwa. What else does he want ? That is constant narrative.
-
Narrative by who. When was Ruto paid. Street rumours. Uhuru is the guy who will determine Ruto fate..and Uhuru clears owes Ruto & RV alot. He won't be PORK if it had not been for RV propping him and supporting him all those years.
WSR was paid billions by GEMA to back Uhuru. Alishalipwa. What else does he want ? That is constant narrative.
-
I pray Gema sticks to "our man" so silly tribal politics can unravel. Leaders should be picked on performance not MOUs and tribal loyalties.
MERITOCRACY 8)
-
Narrative by who. When was Ruto paid. Street rumours. Uhuru is the guy who will determine Ruto fate..and Uhuru clears owes Ruto & RV alot. He won't be PORK if it had not been for RV propping him and supporting him all those years.
I agree with your earlier comment that Ruto looks set for 2022. There are those who say---Terminator here, for example---that the dynamics could change before then. Possible. But voting in Kenya is a simple tribal affair, and the nature of that won't change in 6 years. So, unless Jubilee really f**ks up, the stage is set: the same numbers game----who gets them registered to vote, who gets them showing up to vote.
But I disagree with you on how much of a role Uhuru will play in 2022; and it's not just the past and current "propping up". Uhuru's hands are tied. GEMA has a simple choice: Support Ruto (whom they can control) or go it alone and lose (to ???). And there, Ruto has a strong hand to play: If GEMA doesn't support him, he goes back to his old CORD friends. He laments on the iniquities of GEMA and how they can't be trusted to honour a deal. Liars and thieves, they stabbed him in the back and stole from him. Etc. Etc. Etc. His audience will only be too happy and prepared to hear and believe all of that. Welcome back, Brother Samoei; nasty folks there in Central. Didn't we tell you? Still, you are now back among friends and comrade. Much loved by one and all. (Aside: Done deal. Board-boy, put a "tick" next to "RV". Non-stop to State House.) And the GEMA lads know that too.
Whether Ruto was paid for or was bought is actually irrelevant. The clueless and disorganized Opposition have nothing to offer him, whereas GEMA both owes him (as RV Pundit has pointed out) and also need him. The former means nothing in politics; the latter means a great deal.
Another thing is that in 2022 Ruto could attract votes beyond Central and the RV. There is no doubt that he is a very capable fellow. But so far, he has focused on (starting under Moi) electoral violence and theft fuelled by seemingly endless greed. If he could sell the message that his bad ways are a thing of the past ...
-
It won't be easy for Gema to short-change Ruto.For the same reason Uhuru has honoured the MOU by making 50-50 appointment in all areas including critical ministries (unlike even NARA international negotiated deal), GEMA will not find a reason not to give Ruto is 10.Certainly Ruto will make it very hard for anyone to do that..by being loyal dependable ally and yet a hard negotiator behind the scenes.Then there is unspoken reality...Ruto holds the fate of 1M GEMA diaspora in RV in his hands. He doesn't need to plan or pre-plan any violence but Kalenjin will rise in great anger of betrayal and cause unprecedented violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame.The GEMA diaspora thanks to way they were settled will always remain a political hot potato.
I agree with your earlier comment that Ruto looks set for 2022. There are those who say---Terminator here, for example---that the dynamics could change before then. Possible. But voting in Kenya is a simple tribal affair, and the nature of that won't change in 6 years. So, unless Jubilee really f**ks up, the stage is set: the same numbers game----who gets them registered to vote, who gets them sho
wing up to vote.
But I disagree with you on how much of a role Uhuru will play in 2022; and it's not just the past and current "propping up". Uhuru's hands are tied. GEMA has a simple choice: Support Ruto (whom they can control) or go it alone and lose (to ???). And there, Ruto has a strong hand to play: If GEMA doesn't support him, he goes back to his old CORD friends. He laments on the iniquities of GEMA and how they can't be trusted to honour a deal. Liars and thieves, they stabbed him in the back and stole from him. Etc. Etc. Etc. His audience will only be too happy and prepared to hear and believe all of that. Welcome back, Brother Samoei; nasty folks there in Central. Didn't we tell you? Still, you are now back among friends and comrade. Much loved by one and all. (Aside: Done deal. Board-boy, put a "tick" next to "RV". Non-stop to State House.) And the GEMA lads know that too.
Whether Ruto was paid for or was bought is actually irrelevant. The clueless and disorganized Opposition have nothing to offer him, whereas GEMA both owes him (as RV Pundit has pointed out) and also need him. The former means nothing in politics; the latter means a great deal.
-
It won't be easy for Gema to short-change Ruto.For the same reason Uhuru has honoured the MOU by making 50-50 appointment in all areas including critical ministries (unlike even NARA international negotiated deal), GEMA will not find a reason not to give Ruto is 10.Certainly Ruto will make it very hard for anyone to do that..by being loyal dependable ally and yet a hard negotiator behind the scenes.Then there is unspoken reality...Ruto holds the fate of 1M GEMA diaspora in RV in his hands. He doesn't need to plan or pre-plan any violence but Kalenjin will rise in great anger of betrayal and cause unprecedented violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame.The GEMA diaspora thanks to way they were settled
Sounds nasty and unpleasant, but that's the reality. Given all that, here's something I've been wondering about and on which point you could shed some light: Why didn't Ruto go for 5-years-GEMA, 5-years-RV, 5-years-GEMA, 5-years-RV, ...?
The context is this: GEMA might support a Ruto post-22 presidency, but one can be sure that they will either cripple it or somehow maintain control. The key to either path is what happens in the next 5 years.
Oh, here's a thought on "violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame": The ICC cases failed, but all now know what it would take to make such cases stick (or fail), and I have no doubt that all Kenyan politicians will henceforth keep all that in mind. (We can argue it later, but I believe the ICC prosecutions are ultimately good for Kenya, even if nobody got locked up.) So, if I were one of the lads who control GEMA, one of the things I would be doing, in the face of such an obvious (even if implicit) threat of violence would be keeping a sharp eye on people and maintaining meticulous records. 2017-2022 Neutralization: "This time you don't burn our women and children in a church and away with it; we've been keeping tabs."
-
Narrative by who. When was Ruto paid. Street rumours. Uhuru is the guy who will determine Ruto fate..and Uhuru clears owes Ruto & RV alot. He won't be PORK if it had not been for RV propping him and supporting him all those years.
I agree with your earlier comment that Ruto looks set for 2022. There are those who say---Terminator here, for example---that the dynamics could change before then. Possible. But voting in Kenya is a simple tribal affair, and the nature of that won't change in 6 years. So, unless Jubilee really f**ks up, the stage is set: the same numbers game----who gets them registered to vote, who gets them showing up to vote.
But I disagree with you on how much of a role Uhuru will play in 2022; and it's not just the past and current "propping up". Uhuru's hands are tied. GEMA has a simple choice: Support Ruto (whom they can control) or go it alone and lose (to ???). And there, Ruto has a strong hand to play: If GEMA doesn't support him, he goes back to his old CORD friends. He laments on the iniquities of GEMA and how they can't be trusted to honour a deal. Liars and thieves, they stabbed him in the back and stole from him. Etc. Etc. Etc. His audience will only be too happy and prepared to hear and believe all of that. Welcome back, Brother Samoei; nasty folks there in Central. Didn't we tell you? Still, you are now back among friends and comrade. Much loved by one and all. (Aside: Done deal. Board-boy, put a "tick" next to "RV". Non-stop to State House.) And the GEMA lads know that too.
Whether Ruto was paid for or was bought is actually irrelevant. The clueless and disorganized Opposition have nothing to offer him, whereas GEMA both owes him (as RV Pundit has pointed out) and also need him. The former means nothing in politics; the latter means a great deal.
Another thing is that in 2022 Ruto could attract votes beyond Central and the RV. There is no doubt that he is a very capable fellow. But so far, he has focused on (starting under Moi) electoral violence and theft fuelled by seemingly endless greed. If he could sell the message that his bad ways are a thing of the past ...
And he is corrupt as hell yet he is not even at the top. GEMA will see that as a problem, not because corruption is a problem per se, but because he is not their man. He is not one of them. They only needed him to save one of their own from ICC fangs, something that is likely to have no relevance in 2022.
-
I think 5-5-5-5 although more assured would be akward(sp).As for ICC, nobody gives a damn if you consider the tribal clashes that have happened since then. This year we have had tribal clashes btw kipsigis & Maasai, Maasai & Kikuyu, Dorobo/Okiek & tugen and several in northern kenya. These are localized tribal clashes that can quickly denegerate. Let not talk about 2015. These tribal/land clashes are just waiting for the opportune time to erupt. The politicians are to blame to some extent..but large extend it the average kenyan who is so tribal..he'll resort to tribal clashes sooner or later.
The context is this: GEMA might support a Ruto post-22 presidency, but one can be sure that they will either cripple it or somehow maintain control. The key to either path is what happens in the next 5 years.
Oh, here's a thought on "violence that would make 2007 violence a little tame": The ICC cases failed, but all now know what it would take to make such cases stick (or fail), and I have no doubt that all Kenyan politicians will henceforth keep all that in mind. (We can argue it later, but I believe the ICC prosecutions are ultimately good for Kenya, even if nobody got locked up.) So, if I were one of the lads who control GEMA, one of the things I would be doing, in the face of such an obvious (even if implicit) threat of violence would be keeping a sharp eye on people and maintaining meticulous records. 2017-2022 Neutralization: "This time you don't burn our women and children in a church and away with it; we've been keeping tabs."
-
And he is corrupt as hell yet he is not even at the top. GEMA will see that as a problem, not because corruption is a problem per se, but because he is not their man. He is not one of them. They only needed him to save one of their own from ICC fangs, something that is likely to have no relevance in 2022.
For GEMA, as I imagine they see it, it's a choice between very bad (Ruto) and probably really, really bad (some character from Nyanza/Ukambani/Western). I think they'll make the "logical" choice.
You say he will have no relevance in 2022. So what does GEMA do then? 2 (big ones) vs. 40 or 1 (big one) vs. 41 (including one new big recruit)?
The ICC ... it might be the case that "there is no honour among thieves", but thieves, if they do any thinking, will be mindful of their interests. The Central-RV marriage is like most marriages: He/she did this to my relatives, was mean to them in this and that way .... I'm not getting any of the in+out. ... What a piece of work the dog/bitch is. But I'll stick with it for now ... the alimony, the kids, the threats of violence ...
And here's another thing: Going just by "anecdotal" evidence, I don't think much of the country is amused that GEMA is back, in full force to (re)-loot the country. I can't give any objective information on that, but I sense a lot of anger. That means they have to keep control. So while Ruto might not be their "our man", he is certainly their "our brother"---a bond lately cemented in travails in "neo-colonial" regions. A much-needed man.
The Opposition could capitalize on the above, but they are too clueless and disorganized: rigged internal elections, apathy in getting prospective voters to register, apathy in getting the vote out, a reputation for "hooliganism", etc.
-
And he is corrupt as hell yet he is not even at the top. GEMA will see that as a problem, not because corruption is a problem per se, but because he is not their man. He is not one of them. They only needed him to save one of their own from ICC fangs, something that is likely to have no relevance in 2022.
For GEMA, as I imagine they see it, it's a choice between very bad (Ruto) and probably really, really bad (some character from Nyanza/Ukambani/Western). I think they'll make the "logical" choice.
You say he will have no relevance in 2022. So what does GEMA do then? 2 (big ones) vs. 40 or 1 (big one) vs. 41 (including one new big recruit)?
The ICC ... it might be the case that "there is no honour among thieves", but thieves if they do any thinking) will be mindful of their interests. The Central-RV marriage is like most marriages: He/she did this to my relatives, was mean to them in this and that way .... What a piece of work the dog/bitch is. But I'll stick with it for now ... the alimony, the kids, the threats of violence ...
And here's another thing: Going just by "anecdotal" evidence, I don't think much of the country is amused that GEMA is back, in full force to (re)-loot the country. I can't give any objective information on that, but I sense a lot of anger.
They'll just vote for one of theirs. History says they don't do number 2 on a ticket. They voted Kibaki, Matiba in the 90s even though they had no chance. In 02, they would have voted Kamwana, regardless of chances, if Kibaki had not been toshad on the other ticket.
That aside, I also the hustler could also be undone in his own backyard by mashinani agents like Isaac, and Johnny come lately Gideon.