Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: MOON Ki on March 10, 2016, 09:56:42 PM
-
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/03/10/we-will-not-extend-the-voter-registration-exercise-iebc_c1310999
-
wasting 5 years making noise but no strategy to get the numbers to win
-
CORD has no strategy. They think that demonizing Ruto will win elections. They ve failed in parliament for one.
-
CORD has no strategy. They think that demonizing Ruto will win elections. They ve failed in parliament for one.
CORD already knows that going against an incumbent in Kenya is next to impossible to win. CORD therefore has nusu on their mind. Reading their body language, their social media guys, etc, it's obvious what they plan; they are constantly drumming into the heads of their supporters that the next elections will definitely be rigged.
Incidentally, an interesting article from last year on why violence in 2017 is practically inevitable:
I recently dined with a European diplomat who asked the ubiquitous question that foreign residents in this country like to do: “What do you think will happen at the next Kenyan elections?” Before I tell you what I answered, I have to state categorically and most unequivocally that I am neither a political analyst nor commentator. I do, however, occasionally comment on the confluence of politics and economics as often happens invariably. That confluence is particularly necessary in the banking industry, where I spent many happy years, when analyzing credit risk of a customer for a term loan of not less than five years.
Within the duration of that loan such a customer is bound to cross the Kenyan election cycle. Depending on the nature of the customer’s business, the company is likely to have difficulties in loan repayments due to cash flow constraints occasioned by poor sales, deplorable debt collections or, heaven forbid, destruction of the company premises therefore impacting on the ability to produce the goods and services that are being procured. My answer to the diplomat saw him imperceptibly swallow and he leaned forward in interest.
“There will be bloodshed in 2017 as the historical patterns demonstrate it.”
“What do you mean?” he whispered.
“In banking, we look at historical behavior as a strong barometer of what future behavior is likely to portend. To understand our history of political violence, you have to start in 1992 when the first multi party elections were held,” I began. “In that year, you had an incumbent who was running against a very strong and credible opposition. That was when Kenya endured the first of several bloody episodes of tribal clashes.” I went on. “In 1997, the same incumbent was running for his second and last term as president. He had the benefit of the state machinery behind him, as well as a fragmented opposition. This time, the political waters were muddied in the coast region, where the pre-election clashes were largely centered. The coastal tourism economy very nearly collapsed and the hotel industry underwent massive bankruptcies.”
“Well what do you make of the peaceful election in December 2002?” the diplomat asked. “Doesn’t that destroy the pattern of electoral violence?”
“Actually, therein lies the pattern,” I responded. “Every time an incumbent is stepping down, there has been a peaceful transition in Kenya. It happened in 2002 and in 2013. But whenever there’s been an incumbent fighting to maintain the status quo, there has been bloodshed; ergo 1992, 1997 and 2007. The 2017 elections are a status quo event. The pattern will be the same.” My lunch partner mulled over this for a few minutes and promptly changed the subject.
In 2008, a few banks took advantage of the politically instigated clashes in the beginning months of the year to blame the growth in non-performing loans. Some of this was not entirely true and was a slick way of reporting previously suppressed bad loans. But you’d think that the regulator would have cottoned on to the games being played. It didn’t. It is not difficult to see why, when you look at the kind of pedestrian analysis the banking supervision department at the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) undertakes. In the recently released 2014 Bank Supervision Annual Report, the Central Bank dedicates the monumental amount of three sentences to analyze the 2014 asset quality of the entire banking industry. I will pick two of the three sentences as an illustration:
“ The lag effects of high interest regime in 2012/2013 and subdued economic activities witnessed in the period ended December 2014 impacted negatively on the quality of loans and advances. As a result, non performing loans (NPLs) increased by 32.4% to Kshs 108.3 billion in December 2014 from Kshs 81.8 billion in December 2013.”
When your non-performing asset book increases by a third, it requires a fair amount of explaining beyond the vanilla high interest rates and subdued economic activities reasoning. There should be a fairly robust amount of granularity around the specific industries driving the poor performance of loans. It is an open secret that the central government endured inordinate cash flow challenges in 2014 that impacted key suppliers of services, particularly in the construction industry. This would invariably have a knock on effect to the suppliers of construction companies such as cement, cable and ballast for example. But this is what should be of concern as we hurtle towards an election cycle in the next two years. The retail loan book across the banking industry is the single largest loan segment with 3.6 million accounts grossing Kshs 516 billion and accounting for 26.6% of total loans in the market. This is ahead of trade at Kshs 375 billion (19.3% of total loans) and manufacturing at Kshs 237 billion or 12.2% of total loans. Retail loans, codified by the CBK as personal/household loans, are consumer loans and in this market represent the largely salary check off loans that pepper many banks’ unsecured loan offers. It’s highly likely that the bulk of these loans are used to purchase consumer items such as cars, furniture and electronics rather than investment in income generating activities. A political event such as post election violence, followed by an economic downturn caused by reduction in productive capacity of Kenyan companies will lead to retrenchments. You can also never underestimate the capacity of cheeky borrowers to take advantage of politically volatile environments to stop repaying loans due to destruction of work places and such like sob stories. I saw it happen in 2008.
A notable risk therefore sits in the banking industry come 2017: any delays in government payments (partly occasioned by tax collection difficulties on the part of Kenya Revenue Authority) together with probable election related violence will negatively impact bank loan books. Don’t be surprised if you find difficulty getting an answer on your loan application that year. Your bank is just not that into you in an election year.
Source: http://carolmusyoka.com/confluence-of-political-and-economic-risks/
-
CORD has no strategy. They think that demonizing Ruto will win elections. They ve failed in parliament for one.
CORD already knows that going against an incumbent in Kenya is next to impossible to win. CORD therefore has nusu on their mind. Reading their body language, their social media guys, etc, it's obvious what they plan; they are constantly drumming into the heads of their supporters that the next elections will definitely be rigged.
Incidentally, an interesting article from last year on why violence in 2017 is practically inevitable:
I recently dined with a European diplomat who asked the ubiquitous question that foreign residents in this country like to do: “What do you think will happen at the next Kenyan elections?” Before I tell you what I answered, I have to state categorically and most unequivocally that I am neither a political analyst nor commentator. I do, however, occasionally comment on the confluence of politics and economics as often happens invariably. That confluence is particularly necessary in the banking industry, where I spent many happy years, when analyzing credit risk of a customer for a term loan of not less than five years.
Within the duration of that loan such a customer is bound to cross the Kenyan election cycle. Depending on the nature of the customer’s business, the company is likely to have difficulties in loan repayments due to cash flow constraints occasioned by poor sales, deplorable debt collections or, heaven forbid, destruction of the company premises therefore impacting on the ability to produce the goods and services that are being procured. My answer to the diplomat saw him imperceptibly swallow and he leaned forward in interest.
“There will be bloodshed in 2017 as the historical patterns demonstrate it.”
“What do you mean?” he whispered.
“In banking, we look at historical behavior as a strong barometer of what future behavior is likely to portend. To understand our history of political violence, you have to start in 1992 when the first multi party elections were held,” I began. “In that year, you had an incumbent who was running against a very strong and credible opposition. That was when Kenya endured the first of several bloody episodes of tribal clashes.” I went on. “In 1997, the same incumbent was running for his second and last term as president. He had the benefit of the state machinery behind him, as well as a fragmented opposition. This time, the political waters were muddied in the coast region, where the pre-election clashes were largely centered. The coastal tourism economy very nearly collapsed and the hotel industry underwent massive bankruptcies.”
“Well what do you make of the peaceful election in December 2002?” the diplomat asked. “Doesn’t that destroy the pattern of electoral violence?”
“Actually, therein lies the pattern,” I responded. “Every time an incumbent is stepping down, there has been a peaceful transition in Kenya. It happened in 2002 and in 2013. But whenever there’s been an incumbent fighting to maintain the status quo, there has been bloodshed; ergo 1992, 1997 and 2007. The 2017 elections are a status quo event. The pattern will be the same.” My lunch partner mulled over this for a few minutes and promptly changed the subject.
In 2008, a few banks took advantage of the politically instigated clashes in the beginning months of the year to blame the growth in non-performing loans. Some of this was not entirely true and was a slick way of reporting previously suppressed bad loans. But you’d think that the regulator would have cottoned on to the games being played. It didn’t. It is not difficult to see why, when you look at the kind of pedestrian analysis the banking supervision department at the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) undertakes. In the recently released 2014 Bank Supervision Annual Report, the Central Bank dedicates the monumental amount of three sentences to analyze the 2014 asset quality of the entire banking industry. I will pick two of the three sentences as an illustration:
“ The lag effects of high interest regime in 2012/2013 and subdued economic activities witnessed in the period ended December 2014 impacted negatively on the quality of loans and advances. As a result, non performing loans (NPLs) increased by 32.4% to Kshs 108.3 billion in December 2014 from Kshs 81.8 billion in December 2013.”
When your non-performing asset book increases by a third, it requires a fair amount of explaining beyond the vanilla high interest rates and subdued economic activities reasoning. There should be a fairly robust amount of granularity around the specific industries driving the poor performance of loans. It is an open secret that the central government endured inordinate cash flow challenges in 2014 that impacted key suppliers of services, particularly in the construction industry. This would invariably have a knock on effect to the suppliers of construction companies such as cement, cable and ballast for example. But this is what should be of concern as we hurtle towards an election cycle in the next two years. The retail loan book across the banking industry is the single largest loan segment with 3.6 million accounts grossing Kshs 516 billion and accounting for 26.6% of total loans in the market. This is ahead of trade at Kshs 375 billion (19.3% of total loans) and manufacturing at Kshs 237 billion or 12.2% of total loans. Retail loans, codified by the CBK as personal/household loans, are consumer loans and in this market represent the largely salary check off loans that pepper many banks’ unsecured loan offers. It’s highly likely that the bulk of these loans are used to purchase consumer items such as cars, furniture and electronics rather than investment in income generating activities. A political event such as post election violence, followed by an economic downturn caused by reduction in productive capacity of Kenyan companies will lead to retrenchments. You can also never underestimate the capacity of cheeky borrowers to take advantage of politically volatile environments to stop repaying loans due to destruction of work places and such like sob stories. I saw it happen in 2008.
A notable risk therefore sits in the banking industry come 2017: any delays in government payments (partly occasioned by tax collection difficulties on the part of Kenya Revenue Authority) together with probable election related violence will negatively impact bank loan books. Don’t be surprised if you find difficulty getting an answer on your loan application that year. Your bank is just not that into you in an election year.
Source: http://carolmusyoka.com/confluence-of-political-and-economic-risks/ (http://carolmusyoka.com/confluence-of-political-and-economic-risks/)
I also noticed that pattern. When an incumbent is running, it has been violent. But I still think the absence of violence in 2013 has more to do with ICC and Bensouda than anything else. The leaders and activists went out of their way to caution against demonstrations.
Now, with kamwana walking and the hustler teetering on the same, they seem to have found a ticket to impunity by eliminating witnesses by guile or force. Coupled with an incumbent seeking reelection for God-knows-what-purpose, 2017 could be a gloves off type of event.
I notice the election cycles have also always negatively affected Kenya's economy. That is probably why neighboring TZ is catching up and will soon supplant Kenya as the regional giant. There may be a need to lengthen the term of office if only to give the economy a bit more momentum at the next election cycle.
That said, CORD has had over 3 years and counting when they could have demanded nothing less than full implementation of the Kriegler recommendatoins by IEBC. Not a peep has been heard from them over the same.
-
CORD have no capacity for any serious violence. It will fizzle out after day one.
-
CORD have no capacity for any serious violence. It will fizzle out after day one.
But Jubilee do. It's their response which could trigger the serious violence.
-
This is like expecting Besigye to cause trouble for M7. Never gonna happen.
But Jubilee do. It's their response which could trigger the serious violence.
-
This is like expecting Besigye to cause trouble for M7. Never gonna happen.
Exactly what Kibaki's handlers thought in 2007, despite all the evidence available before the elections. Classic example of hubris, being replicated yet again.
CORD knows, as things stand today, that they have zero chance of winning the elections against the incumbent. So what better way then to constantly drum into their supporters that the elections are going to be stolen "yet again"? Forget CORD discussing policy etc. on their social media and public platforms; all they talk about is the forthcoming rigging as if it's already a fact.
-
Of course, there will be some rigging and misuse of government machinery. But given that Kenyan voting is all about "our people", rather than issues, the basic numbers favour CORD, and they could have made things more difficult by registering large number of voters and then ensuring that they vote. If CORD leaders have learned anything about the former, it must be a "deep" secret. Too much time and energy were instead misdirected into the funny business known as Okoa Kenya. So, as things stand, they will again be tyrannized by numbers from a smaller base.
Saying that there will be rigging or other bad behavior will not prevent it. Threatening violence, implicitly or explicitly, won't work: in Kenya, as in most of Africa, whoever controls the state machinery wins in any round of electoral violence.
-
Kibaki slept on the job. Moi use to rig and nothing use to happen. M7 and most african rig but nothing happens. Opposition need the capacity to cause violence..and CORD sorely lacks it. CORD cannot forment tribal clashes of any serious magnitude. As long as RV is peaceful and coast is not militant...CORD can only cause violence in urban slums.
As long as Kamatusa and GEMA are on one side....CORD get beaten in all aspects.
Exactly what Kibaki's handlers thought in 2007, despite all the evidence available before the elections. Classic example of hubris, being replicated yet again.
CORD knows, as things stand today, that they have zero chance of winning the elections against the incumbent. So what better way then to constantly drum into their supporters that the elections are going to be stolen "yet again"? Forget CORD discussing policy etc. on their social media and public platforms; all they talk about is the forthcoming rigging as if it's already a fact.
-
Kibaki slept on the job. Moi use to rig and nothing use to happen. M7 and most african rig but nothing happens. Opposition need the capacity to cause violence..and CORD sorely lacks it. CORD cannot forment tribal clashes of any serious magnitude. As long as RV is peaceful and coast is not militant...CORD can only cause violence in urban slums.
As long as Kamatusa and GEMA are on one side....CORD get beaten in all aspects.
You're missing my point: it's Jubilee's response that I expect to be very heavy handed and unnecessary (as Moon Ki puts it, they control the violence). They feel like they're sitting on top of the world, to paraphrase DeCaprio. You see, the tribal hate cuts both ways. RAO has been a thorn on the side of MK for long, and next year is his final chance to clinch either the presidency or again the PM (look, don't ask how he expects to get the PM, he's not thinking correctly). It's the final inning for both sides.
-
I believe Raila will still be running in 2022 against WSR.Nothing has slowed down Mugabe at 95 yrs...and Raila would be younger than PORK MOI and KIbaki. I don't understand the logic behind this heavy handed and unneccesary response causing violence. It doesn't make sense. Like how?
You're missing my point: it's Jubilee's response that I expect to be very heavy handed and unnecessary (as Moon Ki puts it, they control the violence). They feel like they're sitting on top of the world, to paraphrase DeCaprio. You see, the tribal hate cuts both ways. RAO has been a thorn on the side of MK for long, and next year is his final chance to clinch either the presidency or again the PM (look, don't ask how he expects to get the PM, he's not thinking correctly). It's the final inning for both sides.