Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: patel on December 13, 2015, 09:47:40 AM
-
Buyers remorse for electing international criminals ..by ngugi thiongo...."Today President Uhuru Kenyatta has made it clear that before you allege that something has been stolen, you must have evidence thereof. Now, I remember on 5th Jan, 2015, my Phone was grabbed from my hand by some thug along Haile Selassie Avenue and the thief quickly rushed with all the evidence. I posted here on Facebook that my phone had been stolen and I also told a good number of my friends that my phone had been stolen. I also went ahead and instructed Safaricom to disable my number and went to police station to obtain an abstract. All these without an evidence, yet everyone would believe that indeed my phone had been stolen; One because, I didn't have it with me and Two because, they couldn't also prove that it wasn't stolen.
Now, according to Uhuru, if a thief come into your house and steal your Television as you watch, you shouldn't tell people that it was stolen unless you had some videos or pictures capturing the thief stealing it. You shouldn't ask for investigation to be done since you didn't obtain evidence. And because you can't tell where the thief has hidden it.
Today I've learnt something new, a man can have a head and fail to use it."
-
discontent is there it now a matter of getting a candidate in Central to hive off some vote out of Uhuru basket and we can see a run off
-
Patel,
I believe western diplomats are also protecting their interests in kenya. They do not want to risk losing market for their manufactured goods and source of raw materials. They have already lost ground to Chinaman.
If they really were honest, then they could have assisted africa in reparations and reparations.
Welcome to this part of the world Mr. Patel, I noticed you resignation from sewer.com!!
-
That some wishful extrapolation. Central kenya or RV folks (the bedrock of his support) can differ with Uhuru on several issues but that doesn't translate into them supporting CORD. In my considered view, UhuRuto have done a great job to hold onto their majority in both houses of parliament and elsewhere. Kibaki didn't last 2 yrs before his NARC coalition unraveled. Raila's ODM didn't last 1yr before it was raptured.
The two guys have done a commendable job and are sleep walking into another election.
And it obvious...Uhuru and Ruto have kept their political bargains...the power has been shared as per their MOU...there has been goodwill and friendship btw the coalition parties.
As of now....UhuRuto have already won 2017...that happened long time ago when Ruto decided he was going to support Uhuru for 2nd term.
-
Pundit,
All the two need to do is lose 800K votes in their strong holds and this thing goes to round 2 making it anyone's game. Do you think the level of corruption is not anything to be worried about and something that voters can revolt due to
-
And you think loosing 800K vote is easy. That is the entire Kamba vote. or if you go county by county..those are 4 or 5 counties. I just don't see how Jubilee can be beaten. It the same drill. But now with benefit of incumbency. This thing was over before it started. Maybe some dynamics will change but so far Jubilee is more than intact...meaning they are assured of 50% support they had last time.
Pundit,
All the two need to do is lose 800K votes in their strong holds and this thing goes to round 2 making it anyone's game. Do you think the level of corruption is not anything to be worried about and something that voters can revolt due to
-
You are right.. Uhuru gets a second term and I think Ruto becomes President in 2022. Corruption should be legalized so that we can all partake
-
1.5yrs in politics in a long time. CORD have to hope Jubilee sort of implode. If it doesn't, then it going to be impossible task for them. Whatever Jubilee will lose, they will make it up through incumbency/patronage. As for corruption....everyone is in it.
You are right.. Uhuru gets a second term and I think Ruto becomes President in 2022. Corruption should be legalized so that we can all partake
-
What if two counties in Central revolt against Uhuru it appears like Nyeri and Muranga can revolt
-
I think you've been out of kenya for such a long time buddy. Well, possible, but highly improbable.
What if two counties in Central revolt against Uhuru it appears like Nyeri and Muranga can revolt
-
Hehe agreed. I think your boys win another 20 years of uninterrupted ruling. Wow that is game changer knowing there is no way out politically especially for opposition. The difference is 800K votes but like you pointed out it is a hard gap to breach in place like Kenya where tribal loyalty rules
-
My friend Pundit has become less and less objective. We have polls showing Uhuru losing ground in Central and around the country. We know that some engineering was done to get a win in the first round and we also know the roles of Devil MaDvD and Ngilu to snatch votes from CORD.
800K Kamba votes can't be lost?!!! I want to know how Uhuru will claim even a few votes in Ukambani with the two leading Kamba demagogues united against him? And nobody tell me Alfred Mutua will bring votes before he explains why Raphael Tuju failed to deliver even his own wife's vote to Kibaki! Mutua owes his position to Kalonzo and he's already on notice. Like Tuju he wants to polish his retirement package as he heads home in to oblivion. If CORD gets to power he will probably join Mwiraria in KNH to hide from arrest and prosecution for blatant theft.
Uhuru has got this silly idea that if he buys discredited politicians, then he has votes in the areas they come from. Marende is supposed to bring Luhya (Nyore) votes. Never mind that the man owes his Parliamentary and later Speaker post to Raila who remains extremely popular in the area (review Presidential elections 2013 for evidence). Other rejects include Soita Shitanda, Raphael Wanjala, Mudavadi, Eugene Wamalwa, Balala, Gideon Mung'aro, etc.The Bungoma governor who had to make a deal with CORD to win the seat now is his own man promising Uhuru votes.
Frankly, I have no idea where Uhuru will get votes outside Central. RV vote will be less than 2013 and that you can take to the bank. Kalenjins have just seen through the trickery of Uhuru and his tribe and will not buy the 2022 LIE. I doubt that Ruto will support Uhuru come 2017. It is NOT in his interests for Uhuru to get a second term
-
To be fair, CORD have also held their coalition tightly (Kalonzo's maybe 50-50 and has not like WSR declared support for Raila 2017 bid--so there is war there --) and they may take some votes off MaDVD/Amani. In short, if election are held today, I think Jubilee wins with the same or more votes.
Hehe agreed. I think your boys win another 20 years of uninterrupted ruling. Wow that is game changer knowing there is no way out politically especially for opposition. The difference is 800K votes but like you pointed out it is a hard gap to breach in place like Kenya where tribal loyalty rules
-
what if there is voter apathy in central I doubt the middle class will line up to vote for uhuru tena?
-
Well let just says we disagree on this. First I think Jubilee have managed to hold onto their tribal coalition. The major headache was Ruto backing Uhuru....that was granted without asking!.
I just don't see where CORD can take Jubilee votes. CORD will struggle to keep their votes if anything but maybe attract more Luhyas ( I think they got 60%?). The guys in trouble maybe MaDVD. But with Wetangula possibly going for early retirement.....bukusu are in for a ride...and then you have both Bungoma and Tranzoia...having to deal with sizeable Kalenjin/Kikuyu votes..and that is where governors and mps from those areas..will make deal with Jubilee.
In short, however much you dice it, the situation remains largely as it were in 2013. Nothing has CHANGED.
My friend Pundit has become less and less objective. We have polls showing Uhuru losing ground in Central and around the country. We know that some engineering was done to get a win in the first round and we also know the roles of Devil MaDvD and Ngilu to snatch votes from CORD.
800K Kamba votes can't be lost?!!! I want to know how Uhuru will claim even a few votes in Ukambani with the two leading Kamba demagogues united against him? And nobody tell me Alfred Mutua will bring votes before he explains why Raphael Tuju failed to deliver even his own wife's vote to Kibaki! Mutua owes his position to Kalonzo and he's already on notice. Like Tuju he wants to polish his retirement package as he heads home in to oblivion. If CORD gets to power he will probably join Mwiraria in KNH to hide from arrest and prosecution for blatant theft.
Uhuru has got this silly idea that if he buys discredited politicians, then he has votes in the areas they come from. Marende is supposed to bring Luhya (Nyore) votes. Never mind that the man owes his Parliamentary and later Speaker post to Raila who remains extremely popular in the area (review Presidential elections 2013 for evidence). Other rejects include Soita Shitanda, Raphael Wanjala, Mudavadi, Eugene Wamalwa, Balala, Gideon Mung'aro, etc.The Bungoma governor who had to make a deal with CORD to win the seat now is his own man promising Uhuru votes.
Frankly, I have no idea where Uhuru will get votes outside Central. RV vote will be less than 2013 and that you can take to the bank. Kalenjins have just seen through the trickery of Uhuru and his tribe and will not buy the 2022 LIE. I doubt that Ruto will support Uhuru come 2017. It is NOT in his interests for Uhuru to get a second term
-
You're kidding right, what is more important for Central middle class than having PORK. Maybe in 2022 they will not vote Ruto. But for 2017 stop the wishful thinking. Kikuyus will vote 99% for Uhuru and will turn out in great numbers. And so will everyone in Kenya. I think turn out is going to be bigger than 2013.
what if there is voter apathy in central I doubt the middle class will line up to vote for uhuru tena?
-
I do not think any turn out will surpass 2013.. Let us bet if it does I will donate to charity of your choice 2K and you do the same to a charity of my choice if you lose
Look at Turn out in Kiambu. I think Middle Class will sit this one out like they did in 2007 leading to Kibaki getting a whopping
-
I think devolution is going to bring more votes....it mbig deal...even in Turkana or Mandera. Having to manage 10-20B annually...is going to motivate potential governors to get all the votes out there.
I do not think any turn out will surpass 2013.. Let us bet if it does I will donate to charity of your choice 2K and you do the same to a charity of my choice if you lose
-
Kibaki lost in 2007 for failing to craft a tribal coalition big enough to win. He only had GEMA and maybe Bukusus.
I do not think any turn out will surpass 2013.. Let us bet if it does I will donate to charity of your choice 2K and you do the same to a charity of my choice if you lose
Look at Turn out in Kiambu. I think Middle Class will sit this one out like they did in 2007 leading to Kibaki getting a whopping
-
Governor and MP races in most places will be decided during party nomination stage so they wont be a factor in PORK race. Only Nairobi and Mombasa Governorship wont be decided until after final count. Right now Kidero has a headstart so is Joho but if they will have to fight jubilee candidates
-
I don't think so. Even in 2013, it was not like that. It was bloodbath including in Nyanza with likes Obado winning in some unknown party, the same in Nyeri and many other places. Governor is big deal. It cannot be decided in fake primaries. It has to go to the wire. It will attract guys with really sizeable resources to fight it out.
Governor and MP races in most places will be decided during party nomination stage so they wont be a factor in PORK race. Only Nairobi and Mombasa Governorship wont be decided until after final count. Right now Kidero has a headstart so is Joho but if they will have to fight jubilee candidates
-
which counties that have a Non CORD or Jubilee Governor? Less than 4
Here is the voter turnout for Kenyan Elections
http://www.idea.int/vt/countryview.cfm?CountryCode=KE
If anyone in Central secure JAP ticket they win even the affliate parties candidates will win like Gachagua did in Nyeri
-
If Kalonzo concedes to Raila this early, CORD would lose votes to Jubilee or even any Kamba politician who goes for the Presidency. It is strategic for Kalonzo, Wetangula and others to keep presidential hopes alive to give CORD maximum advantage. What you call war is really mobilization and consolidation of votes
To be fair, CORD have also held their coalition tightly (Kalonzo's maybe 50-50 and has not like WSR declared support for Raila 2017 bid--so there is war there --) and they may take some votes off MaDVD/Amani. In short, if election are held today, I think Jubilee wins with the same or more votes.
Hehe agreed. I think your boys win another 20 years of uninterrupted ruling. Wow that is game changer knowing there is no way out politically especially for opposition. The difference is 800K votes but like you pointed out it is a hard gap to breach in place like Kenya where tribal loyalty rules
-
The next election is going to 2nd round Uhuru beat 50 plus 1 by 8K votes in 2013. I predict voter turn out will be 79% in JAP strongholds and 82% in CORD areas so do the maths
These percentages reached the
required double threshold of 50 percent plus one vote
and 25 percent of the votes in half of the counties in
order to be elected in the first round of election.
This margin was achieved with 8,418 votes,
making it a very close victory. Kenyatta’s closest
contestant, outgoing Prime Minister Raila Odinga,
received 5,340,546 votes, or 43.31 percent. In third
place, Musalia Mudavadi obtained 3.93 percent, and
the other five presidential candidates each received
less than 1 percent. Total national voter turnout was
slightly more than 86 percent.
The two major party coalitions, the Coalition for
Reform and Democracy (CORD) and the Jubilee
Alliance, won the majority seats in the elections.
In both the National Assembly and the Senate,
Kenyatta’s Jubilee Alliance secured the majority of
seats and marshaled their numbers to win the coveted
speaker’s position in each house. In the National
Assembly, Jubilee won a majority with 195 seats,
followed by CORD with 143 of the 350 seats. In the
Senate, Jubilee and its affiliates secured 34 of the 68
seats and CORD 27.
1 Kenya has signed and ratified, amongst others: African Union (AU)
Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, AU Convention on Combating
-
Make senses. But if we are heading to election with essentially the same configuration as 2013 but Uhuru now PORK, what chances do CORD really have? Sort of radically registering more votes in their stronghold, I don't see how this will turn out any differently.
I'll put my money on Uhuru winning If it were held today. Raila and CORD have to work harder.
If Kalonzo concedes to Raila this early, CORD would lose votes to Jubilee or even any Kamba politician who goes for the Presidency. It is strategic for Kalonzo, Wetangula and others to keep presidential hopes alive to give CORD maximum advantage. What you call war is really mobilization and consolidation of votes
-
Best case for CORD is to take MaDVD 4%. That takes their numbers to 47%. That is assuming they can keep their coalition. That is going to be very hard because you can expect Uhuru has PORK to have far more patronage to dish out deals.
The next election is going to 2nd round Uhuru beat 50 plus 1 by 8K votes in 2013. I predict voter turn out will be 79% in JAP strongholds and 82% in CORD areas so do the maths
These percentages reached the
required double threshold of 50 percent plus one vote
and 25 percent of the votes in half of the counties in
order to be elected in the first round of election.
This margin was achieved with 8,418 votes,
making it a very close victory. Kenyatta’s closest
contestant, outgoing Prime Minister Raila Odinga,
received 5,340,546 votes, or 43.31 percent. In third
place, Musalia Mudavadi obtained 3.93 percent, and
the other five presidential candidates each received
less than 1 percent. Total national voter turnout was
slightly more than 86 percent.
The two major party coalitions, the Coalition for
Reform and Democracy (CORD) and the Jubilee
Alliance, won the majority seats in the elections.
In both the National Assembly and the Senate,
Kenyatta’s Jubilee Alliance secured the majority of
seats and marshaled their numbers to win the coveted
speaker’s position in each house. In the National
Assembly, Jubilee won a majority with 195 seats,
followed by CORD with 143 of the 350 seats. In the
Senate, Jubilee and its affiliates secured 34 of the 68
seats and CORD 27.
1 Kenya has signed and ratified, amongst others: African Union (AU)
Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, AU Convention on Combating
-
CORD gets Martha Karua and Dida 1% too so it 48% I am also banking on 4% Jubilee staying home because of not being satisfied by Jubilee performance
-
Okay. We have about 1.5yrs to watch the political scene and make more accurate predictions. For now CORD have to vanguish MaDVD who is crawling from among the deaths..and somehow hope Wetangula can keep the luhya (bukusu) fire burning...then hope Kambas don't split. Jubilee has to hope Ruto will deliver RV. Uhuru will get "all" GEMA votes.
CORD gets Martha Karua and Dida 1% too so it 48% I am also banking on 4% Jubilee staying home because of not being satisfied by Jubilee performance
-
still early By next year June we will know
what would happen in scenario where Raila passes away would Orengo Join Uhuru and Kalonzo Join Ruto.. I think Raila health makes him the greatest wildcard. Raila has serious diabetes and I do not think he fully recovered for aneurysm he suffered in 2008.Does Bonny Khalawele carry any weight in West.. What is the value of Ababu?
-
Ngugi was Never a Uhuru supporter
-
Uhuru lost a very big constituency when he lost most teachers and their families. Most gema and kalenjin folks are waking up to uhuru failed presidency. Talk to people or browse sites and you will notice the tide has turned but will that translate into votes? If Peter keneth runs in 2017 he will surely dent uhuru numbers. What if in 2017 there will be a kalenjin presidential candidate?
In the end what will be Jubilee reelection platform?
-
We have polls showing Uhuru losing ground in Central and around the country.
Meaningless polls. Who do you think the people in Central will vote for in 2017? You think they will abandon their own man and vote for Raila or Kalonzo or another?
-
If Peter keneth runs in 2017 he will surely dent uhuru numbers.
How much denting did he do in 2013? Uhuru got 6.2 million votes; Kenneth got 0.072 million. He had the crap beaten out of him even in his own Gatanga!
-
Raila had 5% of votes in central may be from Westerners living there and a few principled Kikuyus. Raila needs to increase this number by 3 percent and he has a chance against Uhuru nationally
-
Uhuru will not let it go 2017,NEVER,This is Africa and incubents dont go home easily,most likely we may have a re run but Uhuruto will squeeze through at whichever cost unless CORD registers over 1.5 million new voters more than Jubilee.
2022 will be the epic battle and last for Raila.Uhuru will be exiting,Ruto will be vying hoping to get kikuyu votes,Peter Kenneth will have matured as GEMA candidate.e will have too many presidential candidates,Wetangula,Kalonzo,Mudavadi,Mutua,Munya,Oparanya,Ruto,Keneth,Raila, all will be on ballot.First round will be between Raila and Kenneth.As to who wins round 2,i dont know.RV will revolt big.
-
Raila will be 82 then and in bad shape like his dad diabetes will have decimated his organs. I wonder why Raila still drinks liquor at his age and health
-
Unfortunately in Kenya age is never an issue,its tribal cards.Someone once said even a dog dressed in some colours will be voted.
-
Raila at 82 will be like ole ntimama no one but his core county will hang on his coat tails
-
Moi would have won in 2002 had it not been the constitutional limitation,the same to Kibaki in 2013.This is Kenya.
-
Yeah 2022 may be more interesting. The way things are...Uhuru just seem to have all the handles on 2017. Ruto will become PORK if and only IF UHURU wants him. If Uhuru wants Ruto as pork, all he has to do is to resign few months to elections, and let Ruto ran as incumbent.
Ruto has to squeeze such a deal..that ensure Ruto becomes PORK the last 6 or 3 months to 2022....with DPORK from GEMA. That is all Ruto need to become PORK for 10yrs.
Uhuru will not let it go 2017,NEVER,This is Africa and incubents dont go home easily,most likely we may have a re run but Uhuruto will squeeze through at whichever cost unless CORD registers over 1.5 million new voters more than Jubilee.
2022 will be the epic battle and last for Raila.Uhuru will be exiting,Ruto will be vying hoping to get kikuyu votes,Peter Kenneth will have matured as GEMA candidate.e will have too many presidential candidates,Wetangula,Kalonzo,Mudavadi,Mutua,Munya,Oparanya,Ruto,Keneth,Raila, all will be on ballot.First round will be between Raila and Kenneth.As to who wins round 2,i dont know.RV will revolt big.
-
RV Pundit,some things dont happen in politics especially Kenya,Uhuru resigning 6 months to elections is pipe dream,not even for a day.By the time we near 2022 elections Uhuru and Ruto will not be seeing eye to eye.Take that to Muramati sacco.
The only realistic path of Ruto becoming PORK is doing a Putin-Medved arrangement 2017.
-
That all depend on the two. I think so far they've proven to be committed to whatever deals they've entered. Uhuru is a gentleman. That is why there is no cries of MOU or betrayal. Why would Uhuru risk his legacy by starting kikuyu-Kalenjin war by reneging on the deal . So that mr nobody Kenneth can win :).If I was to advice Ruto, I would tell him to stick with Uhuru, medvev-putin would have worked, if Uhuru was not trustworthy.
The way I see...Uhuru fate in 2017 depends on RUTO..Ruto fate in 2022 similar hangs on Uhuru.
The deal with remain 50:50 btw Uhuru's camp-Ruto's camp; so the figure head (pork) will only change.
RV Pundit,some things dont happen in politics especially Kenya,Uhuru resigning 6 months to elections is pipe dream,not even for a day.By the time we near 2022 elections Uhuru and Ruto will not be seeing eye to eye.Take that to Muramati sacco.
The only realistic path of Ruto becoming PORK is doing a Putin-Medved arrangement 2017.
-
What does Uhuru loose by not supporting Ruto 2022?He shall have served his two terms comfortably,whoever becomes president after him is non of his business.
-
You imagine Uhuru will retire comfortably after gifting the opposition (leave alone Raila) power. Sounds insane to me. Uhuru job will be to ensure Jubilee wins again. Without that, he and his friends, may spend retirement in a very hard place.
What does Uhuru loose by not supporting Ruto 2022?He shall have served his two terms comfortably,whoever becomes president after him is non of his business.
-
What has Ruto done to Kikuyus that Raila,Kalonzo did not do?
-
I think Kalonzo can cut a deal with GEMA but Raila will not be trusted by ruling elite....that is just the hard reality. Raila just scares a whole lot of people. He just too unpredictable for the likes of Uhuru to let him win that easily.
What has Ruto done to Kikuyus that Raila,Kalonzo did not do?
-
He only scares kikuyus,rest of tribes have voted him and will still vote him.
-
I won't include Kalenjin...it will take some miracle for them to forgive Raila soon.
He only scares kikuyus,rest of tribes have voted him and will still vote him.
-
RV Pundit Ponder this
2022 Raila goes for rerun with Peter Kenneth? how will Kalenjins vote?
-
That will be tough one...but 82 yr old Raila may nick it :)
RV Pundit Ponder this
2022 Raila goes for rerun with Peter Kenneth? how will Kalenjins vote?
-
In short,politics is about interests and not emotions.Raila is here to stay for a long time,he is the only politician who can ganner votes across the country.He will always be either no 1 or 2 in any election.I doubt if he is really interested in 2017,What i know is that he is looking at 2022,then do a Mandela,one term.
-
Raila will be irrevant in 2022 ..Kenya is not SA
-
As long as our politics remain tribal,Raila will still be relevant as long as he lives.Thats the plain truth.
-
Raila had 5% of votes in central may be from Westerners living there and a few principled Kikuyus. Raila needs to increase this number by 3 percent and he has a chance against Uhuru nationally
Is there any reason to believe that in 2017 there will be more "Westerners" and "principled Kikuyus" to be found in Central? Raila needs to forget Central and RV, look elsewhere, and focus on the dull, tedious and hard work of (a) getting his supporters to register, and (b) getting them to turn out to vote. (In that, he can learn a few things from his "cousin" in America.) Discipline and focus. Of which a good place to start would be ODM and its culture of hooliganism that makes a mess of even small elections.
-
MoonK,
Raila is done. He has a snowball chance in Hell of win next elections. His supporters are throwing stones all over the place but not registering to vote. He is done. I think Kalonzo and Wetangula will bolt to another camp before elections. if I was them I would not wait for humilitation at the polls. Wetangula and Kalonzo should go to Ruto and see if they can make a run for it. Raila can join Uhuru