Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Georgesoros on November 17, 2015, 11:59:31 PM
-
We are doomed.
Also, as long as we support "nusu mkia" we are also doomed.
Most of Kenya has been turned into slums. People live below allowable standards. Counties were supposed to address basic issues but am sure nobody is happy with $1000 wheelbarrows, and Kshs 15000 gates just to name a few. Go to Kitengela - its a very fast growing slum. Roads are a luxury yet people pay land rates every year. Its tragedy of magnificent scale.
-
The Elite found a genius method of control. Keep citizens busy protecting tribe while the trample on their rights and protections. Uhuru is now a few steps from emasculating the new constitution. He uses parliament and the courts. To make sure he gets support, he unleashes tribal sentiment.
-
Indeed institutions seem to be either sleeping or are afraid to use their powers.
-
Ndii comments on this, and I think he is right that:
[...] our predatory post-colonial state cannot be reformed. We have two choices, to dismantle it properly, and build a new one from ground up, or to wait for it to implode which could take another five years, or 50.
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/If-we-wont-let-go-of-thieves-lets-just-kiss-and-say-bye/-/440808/2964830/-/9f7h20z/-/index.html
I see no chance of the former, so implosion it will have to be.
-
Toa Kitu kidogo generation has taken shape and to dismantle it will be ry hard. If Waiguru can do it and get away why not them.
-
I agree with Ndii, lets start by starving the beast. The national government and county governments are both wasteful and corrupt because they are flush with cash. There should be a legislation on what percentage counties and national government can spend on. Atleast 50% on infrastructure. I'd let counties keep 45% of all the taxes derived from their county. And finally reduce taxation vat to about 10% , PAYE to start at 30k not 15k.
-
History has shown that reform is a process. It is progressive, slow, painful.
In case of an Implosion you need to rebuild and that won’t guarantee results since the old networks will reconstitute and take over the reforms.Eg in Iran the anti-reform group took over agenda of the reform group after Shah and the moderate group has since been crashed and is always trying to work the system from within and without with little success.
My Preferred way: is the movement way:
ODM as a movement moved Kenya forward. It provided for expanded democratic space.. it was able to cobble shaky coalitions within the GEMA reformers and “western alliance” reformers. It defeated Kibaki imperial presidency in every battle and won the bigger moral battle.
Then came PEV :
Anti-ICC and Post PEV fallout brought back the fundamentalists from KANU rightwing and opportunists from opposition. However, their grip on the state is eroding very fast. There is a lot of disquiet within GEMA moderates “reformers” and RV reformers. They want nothing to do with KANU rightwing. So the battle now is for reformers to take initiative and in the next 2 years convince RV and GEMA reformers to rejoin reform movement.
My evaluation of institutions:
On Judiciary –
Reforms are ongoing there are very visible reforms under leadership of Mutunga. At least we can say the common man today can expect some justice. pressure from public has helped move some high profile injustices to prosecution stage. What we need now is to be able to reform the prosecutor’s office so that it has resources to be able to secure convictions. That is a process that if we go on with reforms will be a reality in 10 years to come.
On Parliament we need to find a way to reform committees put in place measures that will reduce corruption in this institution. Parties need to be given tools and means to discipline members and law enforcement needs tools to reign in rouge mps like Ababu and his gang of carpet baggers.
Senate needs to be scrapped and its resources moved to county assemblies.. I think right now Senate is superfluous to Parliament.
Presidency – Strong Judiciary, civil service and Parliament should be able to check the excesses of this office. Uhuru is the first president who has tried to emasculate institutions but is having little success. Next president will even have a hard time.
My point is that we are on the right path and continuous reform should shape Kenyan politics away from tribal tyranny and into ideology or issue based politics
-
I agree with Ndii, lets start by starving the beast. The national government and county governments are both wasteful and corrupt because they are flush with cash. There should be a legislation on what percentage counties and national government can spend on. Atleast 50% on infrastructure. I'd let counties keep 45% of all the taxes derived from their county. And finally reduce taxation vat to about 10% , PAYE to start at 30k not 15k.
Slight problem: exactly who will starve the beast? Even the legislation you refer to requires the MPIGs.
-
History has shown that reform is a process. It is progressive, slow, painful.
In case of an Implosion you need to rebuild and that won’t guarantee results since the old networks will reconstitute and take over the reforms.
...
My Preferred way: is the movement way:
It's not that there is a choice between reform and implosion, but some prefer implosion. It's that implosion will occur because the reform that people expected doesn't happen.
If you look at the Kenyan system since independence, there have been two major changes. The first came with getting rid of the Moi tyranny, and it was a painful and costly process in many ways. At that point, when Kibaki came to power, Kenyans were very optimistic that they were finally on the right path. But a few years later we had the PEV, a very nasty "event" that led to the second major change: the new constitution.
The PEV did not occur during Kenya's worst years (the Moi years). It occurred during a supposedly better "time". That should be considered carefully. The PEV wasn't just about the elections; there was a bubbling cauldron well before that. We are heading into a similar phase.
Consider some of your proposals:
On Parliament we need to find a way to reform committees put in place measures that will reduce corruption in this institution.
Senate needs to be scrapped and its resources moved to county assemblies.. I think right now Senate is superfluous to Parliament.
Can we really expect any of that to happen?
Strong Judiciary, civil service and Parliament should be able to check the excesses of this office. Uhuru is the first president who has tried to emasculate institutions but is having little success.
What is true is that he has been unable to do things in the crude, old ways. Otherwise he is doing "quite well" in a similar fashion:
* In the legislature, he has a majority, and it is led by idiots that he controls.
* The civil service is entirely under is control, so I don't see how it can play role in checking him.
* The police? His man. The military? His people. Take a look at who has replaced flower-girls to meet and see him off at the airport.
* EACC? A joke. Apart from doing very little, its leaders can be disposed of at will. (Who has replaced Mutemu and Keino? Who will replace them?)
As I see it, things might look good, but that's only because the new constitution has brought some improvements on what was a hopeless system. But looking good and being good are two different things. What we have is a house whose roof, windows, paint etc. have been refurbished, but the foundations are still rotting. And that rot is called top-driven tribalism.
-
Uhuru is a mistake and a generational change anomaly. The only reason Uhuru is president is because Kibaki generation created a power vacuum in Central and when death, ill health and term limits displaced this generation Uhuru became an alternative. Kibaki cortier of friends are corrupt to core and wanted a man they could trust to continue keeping their families in the money trough and Uhuru was a safe bet. Then you have the Kenyan Millenials who because of political naivety were easy to manipulate to vote for uhuru generation. What happened due to anti ICC sentiment Kikuyu reformers and Kalenjin reformers abandoned reform movement and Joined the oligarchs.. The rest of Kenya has reacted to this by feeling hopeless and abandoned. However in politics personal interests trumps everything and now that Kikuyu and Kale reformers have found that this government to be unsympathetic to their interests they may cross the floor.. Now it is the duty of those who do not want implosion to court this group and assure them that reformist camp preserves their interests better.. Tribalism can be defeated. I am a strong believer in that tribalism is a symptom and not a disease.. Corruption is a civil service disease that can be cured slowly if reformers that charge of the political process
-
I agree with Ndii, lets start by starving the beast. The national government and county governments are both wasteful and corrupt because they are flush with cash. There should be a legislation on what percentage counties and national government can spend on. Atleast 50% on infrastructure. I'd let counties keep 45% of all the taxes derived from their county. And finally reduce taxation vat to about 10% , PAYE to start at 30k not 15k.
Slight problem: exactly who will starve the beast? Even the legislation you refer to requires the MPIGs.
Already there are proposed constitution changes referendums to allocate more than 45% to county government. This would be a slight change on the allocation formula. Instead of national government taking everything then dividing it. The counties would get 45% of all taxes derived in their county. Its the best way to encourage development and starve the beast. People who pay taxes especially at the local level tend to demand better governance in return.
-
Already there are proposed constitution changes referendums to allocate more than 45% to county government. This would be a slight change on the allocation formula. Instead of national government taking everything then dividing it. The counties would get 45% of all taxes derived in their county. Its the best way to encourage development and starve the beast. People who pay taxes especially at the local level tend to demand better governance in return.
It remains to be seen if such a referendum will (i) be held and (ii) pass. But let us assume that it goes through. That will not starve the beast. That is because:
(a) All the serious corruption---Anglo Leasing, Goldenburg, ... NYS---has always involve things that could never be at the county level. That continues today, in national-government procurement scams, skimming off inflated loans for infrastructure, etc.
(b) Allocating more money to the counties does not mean less to play with at the top when the national government cheerfully borrows more money, which must then be paid back by the taxpayer.
-
I agree full-fledged devolution is the way to go. I just don't see how that is possible without some major price. Already the MCAs are being promised something like CDF just to support the OKOA dead on arrival referendum push. Everyone who is in any position of power is demanding theirs; to a point where the desired change may not be worth the price.
The best chance passed a few years ago, when there was a chance of making Kenya a parliamentary system. Kenya has to live with the current setup, and whatever it morphs into, perhaps for another half-century, before anything like a chance for peaceful change from scratch.