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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on October 04, 2015, 06:11:32 PM

Title: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on October 04, 2015, 06:11:32 PM
Everyone is armed heavily, including chemical weapons.  Swathes of the country under the rule of medieval cavemen.  The rest is controlled by loonies of various shades.

Assad is still hanging onto power, his minority rule now propped by Putin's Russia, and apparently Iran and Hezbollah.  Uncle Sam and Saudis have declared he has no place in the future of Syria or whatever will be left of it.

Russia seems to have clear goals.  To prop up the dictator that everyone else has decided has to go.  And oppose all anti-Assad forces.

The US is simply confused.  The only certainty being opposition to Assad.  Beyond that, there is nothing coherent.  Wondering if they will be forced to attack Assad and the Russians if he starts to regain territory.  Or to outright provide military support to ISIS who they claim to have been bombing over the last year.

It's a jungle out there.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on October 31, 2015, 08:15:49 PM
Obama escalates the mess further.  Sepcial ops forces usually mean related support infrastructure.  If they are in areas where the Russian planes are bombing, it means they could possibly have to bring down the Russian planes to save themselves.  More realistically, it just limits the areas the Russians can freely bomb.

If there is any significance to this, it is that the partition of Syria is the defacto outcome.
Quote
he United States is set to deploy troops on the ground in Syria for the first time to advise and assist rebel forces combating ISIS, the White House said Friday.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said that the U.S. would be deploying "less than 50" Special Operations forces, who will be sent to Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Syria. The American troops will help local Kurdish and Arab forces fighting ISIS with logistics and are planning to bolster their efforts.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/30/politics/syria-troops-special-operations-forces/
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 24, 2015, 05:04:13 PM
Turkey shoots down Russian plane.  They say it was inside Turkish airspace. 

Putin is bitter.  But having few viable options, he has to eat his lumps.  Be more careful.  Turkey is a fearsome military power, even without article 5.

All the major militaries in currently those part will likely understand that they are fighting a common enemy.
Quote
Russian President Vladimir Putin says the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkey will have "tragic consequences" for ties between the two countries.

Turkey said Tuesday that it shot down a Russian warplane after it ventured into Turkish airspace but Russia's defense ministry said the aircraft remained within Syria.

Putin called the attack "a stab in Russia’s back delivered by terrorist accomplices" and said it will not be tolerated, Russia's TASS news agency reported.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/)[/quote]
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: mya88 on November 25, 2015, 03:52:12 PM
Turkey shoots down Russian plane.  They say it was inside Turkish airspace. 

Putin is bitter.  But having few viable options, he has to eat his lumps.  Be more careful.  Turkey is a fearsome military power, even without article 5.

All the major militaries in currently those part will likely understand that they are fighting a common enemy.
Quote
Russian President Vladimir Putin says the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkey will have "tragic consequences" for ties between the two countries.

Turkey said Tuesday that it shot down a Russian warplane after it ventured into Turkish airspace but Russia's defense ministry said the aircraft remained within Syria.

Putin called the attack "a stab in Russia’s back delivered by terrorist accomplices" and said it will not be tolerated, Russia's TASS news agency reported.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/)
[/quote]

This is becoming a dangerous game, That plane that was shot down was video taped...have they really confirmed that it was not in Turkey's territory? I am starting to hear things like a third world war being thrown around, and that is never a good sign. Turkey may have a top army, but so is Russia. If they decide to retaliate then what? There are no winners in this war. I fail to understand why Russia is propping up Assad or why they West want him gone. What is really at stake here? Given the humanitarian crisis that has resulted from this debacle, wouldn't it have been better to let Assad stay on if only for the sake of the country? Clearly Assad doesn't care about his nation because he continues to cling to power as Syrian children a being washed ashore, what is the purpose of being president to a country with no one in it?

https://www.rt.com/news/323379-s400-russia-syria-airbase/ (https://www.rt.com/news/323379-s400-russia-syria-airbase/)
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 25, 2015, 06:11:17 PM
Turkey shoots down Russian plane.  They say it was inside Turkish airspace. 

Putin is bitter.  But having few viable options, he has to eat his lumps.  Be more careful.  Turkey is a fearsome military power, even without article 5.

All the major militaries in currently those part will likely understand that they are fighting a common enemy.
Quote
Russian President Vladimir Putin says the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkey will have "tragic consequences" for ties between the two countries.

Turkey said Tuesday that it shot down a Russian warplane after it ventured into Turkish airspace but Russia's defense ministry said the aircraft remained within Syria.

Putin called the attack "a stab in Russia’s back delivered by terrorist accomplices" and said it will not be tolerated, Russia's TASS news agency reported.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/24/reports-turkey-shoots-russian-jet/76299190/)


This is becoming a dangerous game, That plane that was shot down was video taped...have they really confirmed that it was not in Turkey's territory? I am starting to hear things like a third world war being thrown around, and that is never a good sign. Turkey may have a top army, but so is Russia. If they decide to retaliate then what? There are no winners in this war. I fail to understand why Russia is propping up Assad or why they West want him gone. What is really at stake here? Given the humanitarian crisis that has resulted from this debacle, wouldn't it have been better to let Assad stay on if only for the sake of the country? Clearly Assad doesn't care about his nation because he continues to cling to power as Syrian children a being washed ashore, what is the purpose of being president to a country with no one in it?

https://www.rt.com/news/323379-s400-russia-syria-airbase/ (https://www.rt.com/news/323379-s400-russia-syria-airbase/)
Russia's military options are limited.  Mostly because Turkey is relatively strong militarily.  In that region, it might even be the strongest local military force; a toss between them and Israel to be sure.  Even if it does not escalate beyond a local conflict where the US opts to stay out, Russia cannot fight Turkey in that theater.  Putin, being rational, obviously knows that.

If Russia is to respond, it will have to be through other avenues, like denying Turkey some of its energy resources.  It remains to be seen who blinks first in such a case, given Russia's desperate economic situation.

Putin's real concern is to save face.  He has limited avenues for that.  It looks like publicly introducing the S-400 missiles in the theater is his way of doing that.  It's like he is threatening to shoot down someone's planes in a crowded sky.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Real P on November 26, 2015, 10:12:39 AM
Russia's military options are limited.  Mostly because Turkey is relatively strong militarily.  In that region, it might even be the strongest local military force; a toss between them and Israel to be sure.  Even if it does not escalate beyond a local conflict where the US opts to stay out, Russia cannot fight Turkey in that theater.  Putin, being rational, obviously knows that.

If Russia is to respond, it will have to be through other avenues, like denying Turkey some of its energy resources.  It remains to be seen who blinks first in such a case, given Russia's desperate economic situation.

Putin's real concern is to save face.  He has limited avenues for that.  It looks like publicly introducing the S-400 missiles in the theater is his way of doing that.  It's like he is threatening to shoot down someone's planes in a crowded sky.

Putin just confirmed that an F-16 Turkish fighter jet (American made war plane - or let's just say United States) had shot down the Russian plane, a Sukhoi Su-24, with an air-to-air missile.

BTW, Syria is turning into a clusterfuck or SNAFU for Putin and Russians. Raising the stakes with Turkey, invading more of Ukraine, and continuing the campaign against ISIS is spreading Russia way too thin. This isn't the first time Russia's tested Turkey's airspace; Erdogan/Americans finally decided to call the bluff.

Shot the Russian fcuker down

Putin says there will be no retaliation against Turkey. He knows United States camouflaging as Turks (A Nato ally) will take him down.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 26, 2015, 12:29:58 PM
Russia's military options are limited.  Mostly because Turkey is relatively strong militarily.  In that region, it might even be the strongest local military force; a toss between them and Israel to be sure.  Even if it does not escalate beyond a local conflict where the US opts to stay out, Russia cannot fight Turkey in that theater.  Putin, being rational, obviously knows that.

If Russia is to respond, it will have to be through other avenues, like denying Turkey some of its energy resources.  It remains to be seen who blinks first in such a case, given Russia's desperate economic situation.

Putin's real concern is to save face.  He has limited avenues for that.  It looks like publicly introducing the S-400 missiles in the theater is his way of doing that.  It's like he is threatening to shoot down someone's planes in a crowded sky.

Putin just confirmed that an F-16 Turkish fighter jet (American made war plane - or let's just say United States) had shot down the Russian plane, a Sukhoi Su-24, with an air-to-air missile.

BTW, Syria is turning into a clusterfuck or SNAFU for Putin and Russians. Raising the stakes with Turkey, invading more of Ukraine, and continuing the campaign against ISIS is spreading Russia way too thin. This isn't the first time Russia's tested Turkey's airspace; Erdogan/Americans finally decided to call the bluff.

Shot the Russian fcuker down

Putin says there will be no retaliation against Turkey. He knows United States camouflaging as Turks (A Nato ally) will take him down.

Turkey does not need the US to defend itself against anyone in that theater.  People tend to overrate Russia's conventional military.  Russia's bargaining stick are nukes.  But that is useless when one considers that Putin is rational.  He knows he cannot use them with impunity.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Real P on November 26, 2015, 03:11:58 PM
I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: MOON Ki on November 26, 2015, 05:27:14 PM
I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

Looks good on paper.  So, what is the Russia (and former USSR) record in conventional war?
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Real P on November 26, 2015, 06:58:14 PM
I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

Looks good on paper.  So, what is the Russia (and former USSR) record in conventional war?


Great question BTW, will the so what record you are asking matter if another nuclear bomb is dropped ?

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/russia-vs-turkey-nuclear-war-likely/
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 26, 2015, 08:04:42 PM
I understand that Putin's reputation as a "strong" leader is founded on escalation and ruthless retaliation whenever he is challenged, but Turkey does not have a snowball's chance in hell against Russia.

Here is the globefirepower link .....

http://www.globalfirepower.com/ (http://www.globalfirepower.com/)
Perhaps the Turks should have read their script from www.globalfirepower.com (http://www.globalfirepower.com) before shooting down the plane.  Maybe they did.  Maybe not.  I think the real issue in Syria is to prevent escalation.  That has always  been the risk since Russia entered the theater. 

The conventional military weakness of Russia is actually cause for concern in such encounters.  Because they don't have many options of responding, that can lead to a higher propensity to revert to the only thing they have; WMD.  Yet Putin is rational.  So no response of a military nature is expected.  They have said they will include the s-400 anti-aircraft missile shield into Syria.  Sabre rattling.  Nothing more.

Russia enjoys a level of impunity in what they call the Near-Abroad(former Soviet Union republics).  They can run over countries like Georgia without worry really.  Interestingly their invasion of Crimea has served to create a new red-line in Ukraine, that didn't exist before.    They have in the process lost Ukraine; kind of. 

I think they also have some freedom of operation in Syria, at the moment open game for everyone with power, especially around Latakia and those parts of Syria still under Assad. 
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Real P on November 27, 2015, 04:47:18 AM
Maria Ivanovna Shelomova, Putin's mother was JEWISH. I don't understand why United Stated is backing an Islamic state (Turkey) over Israel.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: MOON Ki on November 27, 2015, 05:12:34 AM
Great question BTW, will the so what record you are asking matter if another nuclear bomb is dropped ?

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/russia-vs-turkey-nuclear-war-likely/

Nuclear war because a plane with two guys got shot down?   Looks like some people have over-dosed on re-runs of Dr. Strangelove or something.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: MOON Ki on November 27, 2015, 05:32:40 AM
So no response of a military nature is expected. 

Russia now threatens to cut economic ties with Turkey.   Has demanded or expects apologies.   

Quote
“We have still not heard any comprehensible apologies from the Turkish political leaders, or any offers to compensate for the damage caused, or promises to punish the criminals for their crime,” Mr. Putin said

Turkey  says they won't apologize and would even do it again

Quote
Mr. Erdogan maintained Thursday that Turkey was protecting its airspace from Russian incursions. “Faced with the same violation today, Turkey would give the same response,” he said.

and

Quote
“We do not need to apologize on an occasion that we are right,” Mr. Cavusoglu said. [Turkish Foreign Minister].

All (diplomatese for "f***k off"). 

Looks like "nukes of words".
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Real P on November 27, 2015, 01:08:16 PM
Erdogan is calculating that Putin can't afford to start real shit with Turkey, but he is wrong. China will be joining Putin in a few days, France is already working with him, Israel is keeping mum. They are on Putin side

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100915-774990-china-joining-russia-to-humiliate-us-weakened-by-obama.htm

End of the days people
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: mya88 on November 27, 2015, 04:27:25 PM
Quote
Mr. Putin said that instead of “immediately making the necessary contact with us, the Turkish side turned to their partners in NATO for talks on this incident. It’s as if we shot down the Turkish plane and not they, ours. Do they want to put NATO at the service of the Islamic State.

At the emergency NATO meeting, Turkish officials played recordings of the warnings Turkish F-16 pilots had issued to the Russian aircraft. The Russian pilots did not reply....

After Turkish representatives presented their side of the encounter at the meeting, they received expressions of support for their country’s territorial integrity, according to the diplomats’ account...
Putin expected Turkey to turn around and make necessary talks with him after downing their plane?????? Russia is just trying to save face, like someone has noted, they have been bullies for a while and now Turkey called their bluff..... They are not going to do much, as far as I can tell.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Real P on November 27, 2015, 06:06:05 PM
Quote
Mr. Putin said that instead of “immediately making the necessary contact with us, the Turkish side turned to their partners in NATO for talks on this incident. It’s as if we shot down the Turkish plane and not they, ours. Do they want to put NATO at the service of the Islamic State.

At the emergency NATO meeting, Turkish officials played recordings of the warnings Turkish F-16 pilots had issued to the Russian aircraft. The Russian pilots did not reply....

After Turkish representatives presented their side of the encounter at the meeting, they received expressions of support for their country’s territorial integrity, according to the diplomats’ account...
Putin expected Turkey to turn around and make necessary talks with him after downing their plane?????? Russia is just trying to save face, like someone has noted, they have been bullies for a while and now Turkey called their bluff..... They are not going to do much, as far as I can tell.

Mya, the Turks are scheduling a meeting with Russia. They are not ready for another Hiroshima. Anyway, I won't put my money on an angry Putin, he is unpredictable


http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/27/middleeast/syria-turkey-russia-warplane-shot-down/

Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: MOON Ki on November 27, 2015, 06:42:07 PM
Erdogan is calculating that Putin can't afford to start real shit with Turkey, but he is wrong.

I bet he is right.     

Quote
France is already working with him.

At their meeting, Hollande insisted that Assad must go, Russia insisted that he must stay.   Talks did not progress much beyond that.

Quote
Israel is keeping mum.

Not really.   In addition to lobbing some artillery shells at Syrian army posts: 

Quote
JERUSALEM—As Russian warplanes struck for the first time in Syria Wednesday and asked other foreign air forces to get out of the way, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said Israel will defend its interests in Syria without seeking permission from Russia.
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/following-russian-air-strikes-israeli-defense-minister-says-israel-will-defend-its-interests-in-syria/

Quote
“We will hit anyone who tries to violate our sovereignty, anyone who tries to transfer advanced weapon systems to terrorist organizations (a reference to Hezbollah), and anyone who tries to transfer chemical weapons to terror organizations. We have no intention of giving up our ability to defend our interests.”

As for a world or nuclear war starting over one jet and two guys, during the so-called War of Attrition, the Israelis did more that that---5 jets and 5 pilots in 3 minutes---and the Russians swallowed it.   Israeli press has lately been repeating that story (summary at the above link) by way of some sort of warning.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: MOON Ki on November 27, 2015, 07:50:12 PM
Mya, the Turks are scheduling a meeting with Russia. They are not ready for another Hiroshima.

The Turkish president just warned Russia not to play with fire.  Actually he called it a recommendation:

"We very sincerely recommend to Russia not to play with fire."

He also added that Russia should apologize for violating their airspace. For good measure, he referred to the threatened economic sanctions as "emotional" and "unfitting".

Doesn't sound like a guy worrying about a "Hiroshima".
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on November 27, 2015, 08:08:34 PM
Quote
Mr. Putin said that instead of “immediately making the necessary contact with us, the Turkish side turned to their partners in NATO for talks on this incident. It’s as if we shot down the Turkish plane and not they, ours. Do they want to put NATO at the service of the Islamic State.

At the emergency NATO meeting, Turkish officials played recordings of the warnings Turkish F-16 pilots had issued to the Russian aircraft. The Russian pilots did not reply....

After Turkish representatives presented their side of the encounter at the meeting, they received expressions of support for their country’s territorial integrity, according to the diplomats’ account...
Putin expected Turkey to turn around and make necessary talks with him after downing their plane?????? Russia is just trying to save face, like someone has noted, they have been bullies for a while and now Turkey called their bluff..... They are not going to do much, as far as I can tell.

Mya, the Turks are scheduling a meeting with Russia. They are not ready for another Hiroshima. Anyway, I won't put my money on an angry Putin, he is unpredictable


http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/27/middleeast/syria-turkey-russia-warplane-shot-down/ (http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/27/middleeast/syria-turkey-russia-warplane-shot-down/)


Nobody is ready for Hiroshima.  That includes Putin.  He knows nuking anyone, is as good as dropping one himself on Moscow.  That should give you an idea where this saga leads to.  It looks like Syria will have to be partitioned.  Sooner or later.
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Real P on November 28, 2015, 09:52:33 AM
This is an incredible inside look at the current state of things inside the Islamic republic of Syria. Footage ranges from the appalling to the absolutely surreal and highlights the complexity of the situation there. Assad rules with an iron fist but he also believes he is defending the nation from a foreign, Saudi-funded and US-backed insurgency. Some of the Syrians interviewed in the piece talk of there being no alternative to Assad and suggest life was better before opposition escalated. I am no expert on Syrian history but one gets the impression that a strongman like Assad might be a better alternative, similar to Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

Hope you find the time to watch this video and maybe have deeper discussion on this



The Rise of Isis is another good one too.

Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on February 17, 2016, 05:08:58 PM
Big war coming. 
Quote
A Saudi official has confirmed that Riyadh has sent warplanes to Turkey’s southern Incirlik airbase, a move considered as preparation for the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said: “From the very beginning, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been in favor of a ground operation in the fight against [ISIS].

“We have been saying in all meetings of the [anti-ISIS] coalition that there should be a comprehensive and outcome-oriented strategy. We have said if such a strategy is implemented, we, as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, can join a ground offensive.”

However, Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz on Monday said his country was not considering sending troops.

Cavusoglu says if ISIS is eradicated, the world will not have to accept Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as the lesser of two evils.

In recent weeks, there has been speculation that Turkey might be preparing for an incursion into Syria.

However, Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat who now chairs the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), said this was unrealistic under present conditions.

“It will only happen if the United States gives its support and participates in such an expeditionary land force,” Ulgen told Al Arabia English.

“That seems unlikely since the United States doesn’t attach the same priority to pushing back regime forces, which seems to be one of the key motivations behind the alleged Turkish-Saudi alliance.”

Ulgen says the most likely scenario at present is the Saudi air force participating in the anti-ISIS campaign from Incirlik airbase.

Experts say Russian reaction to Turkish-Saudi coordination on Syria will determine the course of the conflict.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, says a Turkish land operation in Syria - with or without Saudi support - would lack political and military grounds, even if could be justified by international law.

“The Turkish public is against it, and the Turkish military isn’t enthusiastic according to a recent report in Turkish daily Hurriyet,” he told Al Arabiya English.

“Russia, Iran and the Assad regime would react very sharply, and there’s no reason to think that the United States would welcome such a development.”

Unluhisarcikli said the scope, end-goal and exit strategy of such an operation are at best unclear at present.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are part of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition, which officially comprises 65 members. Ankara also grants the coalition access to Incirlik airbase.

Turkey is part of the recently-launched Saudi military alliance, and bilateral military cooperation was boosted in December with a deal to set up a strategic cooperation council.

In January, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Saudi Arabia, followed toward the end of the month by Turkish Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar to boost military ties.

“The firm stand of Turkey and the Gulf, led Saudi Arabia, is very important in terms of creating a military counterweight against the Russia-Iran-Hezbollah axis,” Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, director of Gazi University’s Strategic Research Center in Ankara, told Al Arabiya English.

“The entry of Russia into the battleground has opened the door for other powers to intervene in the region,” he said.

“The use of Incirlik by Germany, the UK, Qatar and now Saudi Arabia has a symbolic importance to challenge field control by Russia and Iran.”
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2016/02/17/Military-moves-Turkey-and-Saudi-Arabia-close-ranks-on-Syria-.html (http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2016/02/17/Military-moves-Turkey-and-Saudi-Arabia-close-ranks-on-Syria-.html)
Title: Re: Syria Is A Mess
Post by: Georgesoros on February 17, 2016, 05:17:18 PM
Note: It only took 5yrs to completely destroy a fully functioning country.
It had taken 500yrs to build Syria.