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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Omollo on April 27, 2015, 11:47:18 AM

Title: Can Central Possibly Register 7 Million Voters?
Post by: Omollo on April 27, 2015, 11:47:18 AM

I believe Pundit can throw some light on this in the view of the massive JAP propaganda that they intend to register 7 million GEMA voters.

Title: Re: Can Central Possibly Register 7 Million Voters?
Post by: RV Pundit on April 27, 2015, 11:49:36 AM

It too early for tribal maths. I bet there are 45m kenyans now and average age is something like 18yrs now...so we will have 22.5M eligible voters...maybe 18m will register...and 16m will turn up to vote.

Title: Re: Can Central Possibly Register 7 Million Voters?
Post by: Omollo on April 27, 2015, 12:09:22 PM

So they intend to register 31% of the electorate? Is that feasible? If they have since grown from 22% to 31% that means Kalenjin and Luhya have suffered a massive plague epidemic that wiped out millions.

Quote from: RV Pundit on April 27, 2015, 11:49:36 AM

It too early for tribal maths. I bet there are 45m kenyans now and average age is something like 18yrs now...so we will have 22.5M eligible voters...maybe 18m will register...and 16m will turn up to vote.

Title: Re: Can Central Possibly Register 7 Million Voters?
Post by: RV Pundit on April 27, 2015, 02:18:23 PM

Gema demographically is transitioning..I think combined they should be about 19-20%..Kikuyus 17% (I see a drop of 0.5% from 09 census),Meru(2%) and Embu & Mbeer(1%)...Luhya should be 15.5% if not 16%..Kalenjin I think 14%..but this ratios could be thrown out if Somalis,turkanas and northern tribes swing another suprise..they are having a baby boom there...plus possibilities of refugees and inflated figures (see Mandera and Turkana).

However what count is the number of over 18s...and that I think is where somalis,maasai,luhyas,kalenjin and communities now growing (esp those in arid areas) dont have the numbers....most of Somalis for example are kids..each family has 8-9 kids.

Then of course we will have to wait for registration figures..to get the actual votes.

Quote from: Omollo on April 27, 2015, 12:09:22 PM

So they intend to register 31% of the electorate? Is that feasible? If they have since grown from 22% to 31% that means Kalenjin and Luhya have suffered a massive plague epidemic that wiped out millions.

Title: Re: Can Central Possibly Register 7 Million Voters?
Post by: Bella on April 27, 2015, 02:25:59 PM

Omollo, do you mean Gema or central or Jubilee??? All Uhuru's votes plus all the washoshos and anybody with an ID (plus Kales) were 6 million. How is central alone to be 7 million? Have they doubled?

Title: Re: Can Central Possibly Register 7 Million Voters?
Post by: Omollo on April 27, 2015, 03:42:46 PM

Quote from: Bella on April 27, 2015, 02:25:59 PM

Omollo, do you mean Gema or central or Jubilee??? All Uhuru's votes plus all the washoshos and anybody with an ID (plus Kales) were 6 million. How is central alone to be 7 million? Have they doubled?

It variously presented as Central (Euphemism for GEMA) and JAP (TNA plus URP). Registering more votes in RV is a double-edged sword incase they don't vote for Uhuru.
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thecounties/article/2000159007/lobby-group-aims-to-register-7-million-jap-members