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I stand to be corrected.It seems we have a battle inside the Odinga family and the larger ODM fraternity.
1) CAMP A: Ida odinga,winnie,babu,sifuna,orengo,Wandai,Mbadi.
2) CAMP B: Oburu,Wanga,Junet,I think Kaluma.
3) CAMP C:The coastal grouping of Joho & Nasser which is watching the Odinga family fallout.They threatened to form their own party but they seem kinda lost depending on how dholuo politics play out.
CAMP A wants to support Ruto while CAMP B wants to support Kalonzo in 2027.
Oburu has told Ida to bring it on.Now,Oburu with Ruto support will have enough money and security during the ODM National delegates conference.It will be chaos.
Whom will the dholuo people obey?Oburu or Ida.
If IDA camp A is defeated,Will they quit ODM and form a new party?What will Kalonzo give them.
Interesting days ahead.
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Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.
I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.
Reads like ODM obituary.
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Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.
I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.
Reads like ODM obituary.
Step 1
1) Ida doesn't want Oburu to lead ODM.She wants him out.
Step 2-NDC
2) If IDA camp of Babu Sifuna are kicked out,What do they do?
Step 3
3) In a fallout between Oburu and Ida,Who will the Luo people vote? Kalonzo or Ruto?
Step 4
What will Kalonzo offer Sifuna,Ida and winnie?
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Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.
I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.
Reads like ODM obituary.
Step 1
1) Ida doesn't want Oburu to lead ODM.She wants him out.
Step 2-NDC
2) If IDA camp of Babu Sifuna are kicked out,What do they do?
Step 3
3) In a fallout between Oburu and Ida,Who will the Luo people vote? Kalonzo or Ruto?
Forming a new party is not easy at all... so despite the Ida camp being more popular Luo will split.
Step 4
What will Kalonzo offer Sifuna,Ida and winnie?
In pre-election deal people can be promised anything e.g. CS or ambassador.
RiggyG and Kalonzo seem amenable to giving Sifuna and Babu Owino seats in Nairobi - especially IF they can deliver significant Luo to Kalonzo. You and Gakuya will wail so loudly but be ignored.
Deals might be cut all the way in Mombasa as ODM dies. Without Luo and Kamba Broad-Based can easily lose to opposition in Mombasa.
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Very likely Babu Owino and Sifunas will be kicked out. Cause Ruto machine will support Oburu.
I think Ida wants united party but she has no capacity.
Reads like ODM obituary.
Step 1
1) Ida doesn't want Oburu to lead ODM.She wants him out.
Step 2-NDC
2) If IDA camp of Babu Sifuna are kicked out,What do they do?
Step 3
3) In a fallout between Oburu and Ida,Who will the Luo people vote? Kalonzo or Ruto?
Forming a new party is not easy at all... so despite the Ida camp being more popular Luo will split.
Step 4
What will Kalonzo offer Sifuna,Ida and winnie?
In pre-election deal people can be promised anything e.g. CS or ambassador.
RiggyG and Kalonzo seem amenable to giving Sifuna and Babu Owino seats in Nairobi - especially IF they can deliver significant Luo to Kalonzo. You and Gakuya will wail so loudly but be ignored.
Deals might be cut all the way in Mombasa as ODM dies. Without Luo and Kamba Broad-Based can easily lose to opposition in Mombasa.
Kalonzo must strategize to win Luo vote.We should consider giving Winnie Odinga running mate position.Sifuna can win Nairobi and become senate speaker or majority leader,GEMA should be given Nairobi governor,Babu can be made FINANCE CS.The goal is defeat Ruto by whatever means necessary.With Winnie Odinga as Kalonzo running mate,I don't see how Luos will not vote Kalonzo.
Gachagua should mentor Methu and Ndindi,Give them plum positions.Ndindi needs to stop being Kigeugeu.
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Forming a new party is not easy at all... so despite the Ida camp being more popular Luo will split.
In pre-election deal people can be promised anything e.g. CS or ambassador.
RiggyG and Kalonzo seem amenable to giving Sifuna and Babu Owino seats in Nairobi - especially IF they can deliver significant Luo to Kalonzo. You and Gakuya will wail so loudly but be ignored.
Deals might be cut all the way in Mombasa as ODM dies. Without Luo and Kamba Broad-Based can easily lose to opposition in Mombasa.
Kalonzo must strategize to win Luo vote.We should consider giving Winnie Odinga running mate position.Sifuna can win Nairobi and become senate speaker or majority leader,GEMA should be given Nairobi governor,Babu can be made FINANCE CS.The goal is defeat Ruto by whatever means necessary.With Winnie Odinga as Kalonzo running mate,I don't see how Luos will not vote Kalonzo.
Gachagua should mentor Methu and Ndindi,Give them plum positions.Ndindi needs to stop being Kigeugeu.
Top 3 slots are already shared... it is why there is "unity" while Pundit and Njuri Ncheke pray for a fallout.
Sifuna and Owino Babu are likely to get Nairobi senator and governor. Their big problem is party once they are kicked out of ODM.
Luo are already cracked despite Ruto giving them 3 CS... slighting Luhya to reward them would be silly.
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ODM died in 2007 after trying to rig and still losing to Kibaki
In 2013 they became CORD , in 2017 NASA and 2022 Azimio.
ODM is where KANU was after Moi left power . Maximum Mps who will be elected on ODM will be around 10 if they Join Ruto around 30 if they run alone .
Oburu , Ida , old generation and some tumbocrats are after Rutos money . New generation politicians Babu Sifuna are after they political future while the likes of Orengo after legacy . Same thing with KANU after exit from power and FORD Kenya after demise of Kijana Wamalwa.
There will be new parties like New ODM or ODM Kenya (Not Wiper) . Ruto will fight tooth and nail to finish ODM like he did In 2008 and also did with Jubilee in 2022
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ODM's future after the death of Raila remains bleak, just like DCP. UDA will rule the country for the next decade or so! Today's well-organised party elections was the most sought after by thousands of candidates
(https://scontent-iad3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/612479791_1507633914056233_2863621228104136187_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=833d8c&_nc_eui2=AeHAgvcfOV09u93kc0GpNOMwmwLMC3nQ-pObAswLedD6k_ODy2EQ52Yjt-A80T1jLcg&_nc_ohc=Ro3GePWjdBEQ7kNvwGZrxlo&_nc_oc=AdnQmkTPoLcpjigBOO31rSIWQPEzHHLtGbpdWP8w5f0QibpTL8YNQ03q5t38t8dSnd4&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-2.xx&_nc_gid=l5_-tnm9M63zujucpzpJKQ&oh=00_Afq3huBvQlp6euItr1_KWK1pmweT5rtHhJSiE8yS7QQMQw&oe=6968658F)
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Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.
Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.
Sifuna will get support of Gachagua
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They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.
Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.
Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.
Sifuna will get support of Gachagua
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Ida Odinga azuia kuondolewa kwa Katibu Mkuu wa ODM
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Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.
Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.
Sifuna will get support of Gachagua
Correct.
What should babu do?
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Oburu will be confirmed ODM Leader.
Joho & Mombasa crew will accept it.
Babu is stuck - Gachagua want Nairobi - and will not support Luo after Sakaja.
Sifuna will get support of Gachagua
Correct.
What should babu do?
Babu Owino would be silly to accept CS promisory note without hedging. He has outgrown MP.
You say Kalonzo needs Luo strategy - and that may include giving up Nairobi governor.
Kalonzo and RiggyG lose more than Babu Owino if Ruto wins.
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Gachagua is smart enough to know PORK and DPORK is gone from him. He is looking for Nairobi governor - and Mt kenya - at least Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia and Kirinyanga now - Kiambu is tough for him. Muranga impossible (Kangata - Ndidi will likely run on their own party and win)
Gachagua is not stupid.
They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.
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Political reality - Babu 'non-tribal' support will evaporate - Kikuyus badly desperately need Nairobi - now that PORK and DPORK are out.
Nairobi is BIG COUNTY.
If I was Babu - I would do 50-50 MOU with Sakaja - and become Deputy governor - for 5yrs - 2027 run and win.
Even if Babu wins - Ruto will not work with him - so he just need to understand it tough for him.
If he follows opposition - he will be offered Deputy of DCP - and Sakaja will offer Odinga family (likely Winnie) the Deputy.
Political reality - Nairobi politics - there is loose alliance in every const btw Kavirondo (Luo, Luhya, gusii) - against Mt kenya.
For Babu to break such alliance it TOUGH - because MCAs need it, Mps need it, name it - so he will be kicked out very FAST by KAVIRONDO URBAN MAFIA from slums all the way up
Correct.
What should babu do?
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RiggyG will do the math.
If he gets ghost PM and some CS slots under Kalonzo - it is worth nothing if Ruto wins.
If Babu Owino can deliver significant Luo - RiggyG can cut him Nairobi governor.
Sifuna & Babu Owino are BIG SCOOP for opposition. Not just direct votes but optics. To stop Ruto from bagging whole ODM.
Basically takes the sail from Ruto - by taking the progressive faction.
Gachagua is smart enough to know PORK and DPORK is gone from him. He is looking for Nairobi governor - and Mt kenya - at least Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia and Kirinyanga now - Kiambu is tough for him. Muranga impossible (Kangata - Ndidi will likely run on their own party and win)
Gachagua is not stupid.
They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.
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Nairobi county is big but not worth PORK.
Gema + Kamba easily beat Kavirondo alliance.
The power is with RiggyG and Kalonzo. Not Ruto and Sakaja.
If they offer Babu Owino governor he will heartlessly abandon Sakaja and ODM.
Political reality - Babu 'non-tribal' support will evaporate - Kikuyus badly desperately need Nairobi - now that PORK and DPORK are out.
Nairobi is BIG COUNTY.
If I was Babu - I would do 50-50 MOU with Sakaja - and become Deputy governor - for 5yrs - 2027 run and win.
Even if Babu wins - Ruto will not work with him - so he just need to understand it tough for him.
If he follows opposition - he will be offered Deputy of DCP - and Sakaja will offer Odinga family (likely Winnie) the Deputy.
Political reality - Nairobi politics - there is loose alliance in every const btw Kavirondo (Luo, Luhya, gusii) - against Mt kenya.
For Babu to break such alliance it TOUGH - because MCAs need it, Mps need it, name it - so he will be kicked out very FAST by KAVIRONDO URBAN MAFIA from slums all the way up
Correct.
What should babu do?
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Muranga - don't be surprised if Kang'ata run on DCP. For dog-fight with CDF rock-star Ndindi.
Ditto Kiambu. DCP is sure bet - it UDA which is questionable.
Gachagua is smart enough to know PORK and DPORK is gone from him. He is looking for Nairobi governor - and Mt kenya - at least Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia and Kirinyanga now - Kiambu is tough for him. Muranga impossible (Kangata - Ndidi will likely run on their own party and win)
Gachagua is not stupid.
They will give Babu Owino if he can deliver Luo. It is about his value not raw tribalism.
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Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
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They said the same thing in 2022 about Ruto , and Ruto was overwhelmingly voted for .
Fact which you know is that Ruto blundered about Gachagua you even talked of how you admired him.
Rutos mistakes cost him and unfortunately he keeps on making mistake after mistake .
Just like Raila the mistakes will make him lose Presidency in 2027 . There is no way about it .
He already knows in 2002 he was one of the few who told Moi KANU will lose because of Raila and FYI he never forgave Raila for that.He is not forgiving .
Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
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:) what's their choice? - Ruto and Sakaja are not Kikuyus either.
If Babu and Sifuna can get Kenya Moja to back Kalonzo - they will get the seats.
If you are Babu - that almost ensure a landslide. How can you trade it for Sakaja deputy? :)
ODM NEC just mandated Oburu to do deal with Ruto.
Luo will split.. ODM will bag most seats in Luo. But anti-Ruto group - Orengo and Otiendes - will defy the party and back Kalonzo.
Let's see if Ruto can work any magic - with his big money.
Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
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Kikuyu backing Gachagau will try to win Nairobi.
Kikuyus will try to run for PORK - not win - but prep for 2032.
The last minute - they will tell Kalonzo simple - let us all run as 5 candidates - so we deny Ruto 50% round 1 victory.
Then round 2 - we enter coalition.
So Kikuyu run - hoping to carry GEMA 25%; Kalonzo run 10%; Matiangi run 5%; Natembeya-Wamalwa - 10-15% of luhyas.
See we add this up - 50%.
If we combine - Kikuyus will not turn up to vote - in numbers.
You know who will be run up - a Kikuyu candidate - who will do re-run with Ruto.
:) what's their choice? - Ruto and Sakaja are not Kikuyus either.
If Babu and Sifuna can get Kenya Moja to back Kalonzo - they will get the seats.
If you are Babu - that almost ensure a landslide. How can you trade it for Sakaja deputy? :)
ODM NEC just mandated Oburu to do deal with Ruto.
Luo will split.. ODM will bag most seats in Luo. But anti-Ruto group - Orengo and Otiendes - will defy the party and back Kalonzo.
Let's see if Ruto can work any magic - with his big money.
Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
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Kikuyu backing Gachagau will try to win Nairobi.
Kikuyus will try to run for PORK - not win - but prep for 2032.
The last minute - they will tell Kalonzo simple - let us all run as 5 candidates - so we deny Ruto 50% round 1 victory.
Then round 2 - we enter coalition.
So Kikuyu run - hoping to carry GEMA 25%; Kalonzo run 10%; Matiangi run 5%; Natembeya-Wamalwa - 10-15% of luhyas.
See we add this up - 50%.
If we combine - Kikuyus will not turn up to vote - in numbers.
You know who will be run up - a Kikuyu candidate - who will do re-run with Ruto.
:) what's their choice? - Ruto and Sakaja are not Kikuyus either.
If Babu and Sifuna can get Kenya Moja to back Kalonzo - they will get the seats.
If you are Babu - that almost ensure a landslide. How can you trade it for Sakaja deputy? :)
ODM NEC just mandated Oburu to do deal with Ruto.
Luo will split.. ODM will bag most seats in Luo. But anti-Ruto group - Orengo and Otiendes - will defy the party and back Kalonzo.
Let's see if Ruto can work any magic - with his big money.
Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
In a Run-off between Gachagua and Ruto,
Gachagua wins,He will have money,mouth and ability to consolidate goons and element within the security apparatus.
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Well its a nice plan :) if I was a Kikuyu like you. I'd push it. Shida tu Ruto is political giant.
In any case - if Rigathi become 2nds - it put him in good stead in 2032 against Kindikis
In a Run-off between Gachagua and Ruto,
Gachagua wins,He will have money,mouth and ability to consolidate goons and element within the security apparatus.
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It is just 2022 redux - with Kalonzo replace Raila.
There is no serious Kikuyu to challenge Riggy.
Ruto can sponsor Moses Kuria. :)
And maybe Igathe in Nairobi.
Otherwise people will vote DCP and Kalonzo.
Luo will vote ODM but split Ruto vs Kalonzo. Youth will follow Babu and Orengo.
Kikuyu backing Gachagau will try to win Nairobi.
Kikuyus will try to run for PORK - not win - but prep for 2032.
The last minute - they will tell Kalonzo simple - let us all run as 5 candidates - so we deny Ruto 50% round 1 victory.
Then round 2 - we enter coalition.
So Kikuyu run - hoping to carry GEMA 25%; Kalonzo run 10%; Matiangi run 5%; Natembeya-Wamalwa - 10-15% of luhyas.
See we add this up - 50%.
If we combine - Kikuyus will not turn up to vote - in numbers.
You know who will be run up - a Kikuyu candidate - who will do re-run with Ruto.
:) what's their choice? - Ruto and Sakaja are not Kikuyus either.
If Babu and Sifuna can get Kenya Moja to back Kalonzo - they will get the seats.
If you are Babu - that almost ensure a landslide. How can you trade it for Sakaja deputy? :)
ODM NEC just mandated Oburu to do deal with Ruto.
Luo will split.. ODM will bag most seats in Luo. But anti-Ruto group - Orengo and Otiendes - will defy the party and back Kalonzo.
Let's see if Ruto can work any magic - with his big money.
Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
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It's why Nowayhaha says impeachment was own goal. Now RiggyG and Kikuyu greed won't break opposition.
Well its a nice plan :) if I was a Kikuyu like you. I'd push it. Shida tu Ruto is political giant.
In any case - if Rigathi become 2nds - it put him in good stead in 2032 against Kindikis
In a Run-off between Gachagua and Ruto,
Gachagua wins,He will have money,mouth and ability to consolidate goons and element within the security apparatus.
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You need to stop being naive like a Kalonzo
And be able to see the political games like I do.
It is just 2022 redux - with Kalonzo replace Raila.
There is no serious Kikuyu to challenge Riggy.
Ruto can sponsor Moses Kuria. :)
And maybe Igathe in Nairobi.
Otherwise people will vote DCP and Kalonzo.
Luo will vote ODM but split Ruto vs Kalonzo. Youth will follow Babu and Orengo.
Kikuyu backing Gachagau will try to win Nairobi.
Kikuyus will try to run for PORK - not win - but prep for 2032.
The last minute - they will tell Kalonzo simple - let us all run as 5 candidates - so we deny Ruto 50% round 1 victory.
Then round 2 - we enter coalition.
So Kikuyu run - hoping to carry GEMA 25%; Kalonzo run 10%; Matiangi run 5%; Natembeya-Wamalwa - 10-15% of luhyas.
See we add this up - 50%.
If we combine - Kikuyus will not turn up to vote - in numbers.
You know who will be run up - a Kikuyu candidate - who will do re-run with Ruto.
:) what's their choice? - Ruto and Sakaja are not Kikuyus either.
If Babu and Sifuna can get Kenya Moja to back Kalonzo - they will get the seats.
If you are Babu - that almost ensure a landslide. How can you trade it for Sakaja deputy? :)
ODM NEC just mandated Oburu to do deal with Ruto.
Luo will split.. ODM will bag most seats in Luo. But anti-Ruto group - Orengo and Otiendes - will defy the party and back Kalonzo.
Let's see if Ruto can work any magic - with his big money.
Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
-
That Kikuyu selfishness or turnout theory collapsed in 2022.
They turned up to crown Ruto and Sakaja.
No reason they won't do it for Kalonzo and Babu Owino.
You need to stop being naive like a Kalonzo
And be able to see the political games like I do.
It is just 2022 redux - with Kalonzo replace Raila.
There is no serious Kikuyu to challenge Riggy.
Ruto can sponsor Moses Kuria. :)
And maybe Igathe in Nairobi.
Otherwise people will vote DCP and Kalonzo.
Luo will vote ODM but split Ruto vs Kalonzo. Youth will follow Babu and Orengo.
Kikuyu backing Gachagau will try to win Nairobi.
Kikuyus will try to run for PORK - not win - but prep for 2032.
The last minute - they will tell Kalonzo simple - let us all run as 5 candidates - so we deny Ruto 50% round 1 victory.
Then round 2 - we enter coalition.
So Kikuyu run - hoping to carry GEMA 25%; Kalonzo run 10%; Matiangi run 5%; Natembeya-Wamalwa - 10-15% of luhyas.
See we add this up - 50%.
If we combine - Kikuyus will not turn up to vote - in numbers.
You know who will be run up - a Kikuyu candidate - who will do re-run with Ruto.
:) what's their choice? - Ruto and Sakaja are not Kikuyus either.
If Babu and Sifuna can get Kenya Moja to back Kalonzo - they will get the seats.
If you are Babu - that almost ensure a landslide. How can you trade it for Sakaja deputy? :)
ODM NEC just mandated Oburu to do deal with Ruto.
Luo will split.. ODM will bag most seats in Luo. But anti-Ruto group - Orengo and Otiendes - will defy the party and back Kalonzo.
Let's see if Ruto can work any magic - with his big money.
Gachagua has so many personalities flaw I dont see DCP becoming big party.
It will win one or two governors seats.
And that is it.
Kalonzo is being lied to...and so is Babu.
Kikuyu to go to election --- to vote for others - eti because they hate Ruto so much :) :)
Maajabu. I dont believe it.
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Take themselves out another 10-20yrs.
I dont see it happening.
Listen more to Githunguri - he has better political lense than you.
You operate like a baby in kenya politics
That Kikuyu selfishness or turnout theory collapsed in 2022.
They turned up to crown Ruto and Sakaja.
No reason they won't do it for Kalonzo and Babu Owino.
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Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.
You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.
That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.
Take themselves out another 10-20yrs.
I dont see it happening.
Listen more to Githunguri - he has better political lense than you.
You operate like a baby in kenya politics
That Kikuyu selfishness or turnout theory collapsed in 2022.
They turned up to crown Ruto and Sakaja.
No reason they won't do it for Kalonzo and Babu Owino.
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A Ruto loss leaves RiggyG in a very good position.
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Njamba use to teach us about how kikuyu think.
Kikuyu basically think they own kenya -
they are very angry that they have failed to nail Nairobi governorship - because they see themselves as owning most of Nairobi - historically sharing it with Maa.
Their support for Sakaja was never genuine.
They dont care about Merus or Kindiki or Embus.
Even Kiambu and Nyeri kikuyu have serious entitlement issues.
2022 - Uhuru fixed them. They never liked Ruto or Raila but when it came down - Ruto was better idea - as it came with added advantage of diaspora peace
They know Ruto ni moto moto now.
With those factoid - you can easily tell how they will play with.
The way I see Kikuyu will do PROPER REAL MATHS.
They will know Ruto is gone gone with ODM/Raila.
They will try to ensare silly Kalonzo but if it doesnt work - they will aim for 2032 - by putting a candidate out to become 2nd to Ruto
Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.
You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.
That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.
Take themselves out another 10-20yrs.
I dont see it happening.
Listen more to Githunguri - he has better political lense than you.
You operate like a baby in kenya politics
That Kikuyu selfishness or turnout theory collapsed in 2022.
They turned up to crown Ruto and Sakaja.
No reason they won't do it for Kalonzo and Babu Owino.
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There is NO scenario where Ruto loses post Raila. HAKUNA. Ruto has TRILLIONS, he is crazy campaigner, he has gov machinery, he just cannot lose.
A Ruto loss leaves RiggyG in a very good position.
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Well it's not yet end of history as you predicted. 8)
We are here debating it. Instead of shutting down the site.
There is NO scenario where Ruto loses post Raila. HAKUNA. Ruto has TRILLIONS, he is crazy campaigner, he has gov machinery, he just cannot lose.
A Ruto loss leaves RiggyG in a very good position.
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But am saying exactly what you are saying: Kikuyu are backing Kalonzo.
You are saying Kikuyu will dump Riggy cause he is ineligible and toxic.
But his argument is his ineligibility is political not legal. This sells.
So they back Kalonzo, then Riggy gets his shot in 2032.
If Ruto wins, he will permanently destroy Riggy.
Secondly, where is the credible Riggy challenger?
Now why sacrifice Gakuya for Babu Owino? Simple: to beat Ruto. Not for nothing.
You are saying Riggy does not have the power over Kikuyu to make this move. I think he does.
Njamba use to teach us about how kikuyu think.
Kikuyu basically think they own kenya -
they are very angry that they have failed to nail Nairobi governorship - because they see themselves as owning most of Nairobi - historically sharing it with Maa.
Their support for Sakaja was never genuine.
They dont care about Merus or Kindiki or Embus.
Even Kiambu and Nyeri kikuyu have serious entitlement issues.
2022 - Uhuru fixed them. They never liked Ruto or Raila but when it came down - Ruto was better idea - as it came with added advantage of diaspora peace
They know Ruto ni moto moto now.
With those factoid - you can easily tell how they will play with.
The way I see Kikuyu will do PROPER REAL MATHS.
They will know Ruto is gone gone with ODM/Raila.
They will try to ensare silly Kalonzo but if it doesnt work - they will aim for 2032 - by putting a candidate out to become 2nd to Ruto
Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.
You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.
That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.
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Riggy or someone from Kikuyu will run.
Ngojea Limuru conference.
But am saying exactly what you are saying: Kikuyu are backing Kalonzo.
You are saying Kikuyu will dump Riggy cause he is ineligible and toxic.
But his argument is his ineligibility is political not legal. This sells.
So they back Kalonzo, then Riggy gets his shot in 2032.
If Ruto wins, he will permanently destroy Riggy.
Secondly, where is the credible Riggy challenger?
Now why sacrifice Gakuya for Babu Owino? Simple: to beat Ruto. Not for nothing.
You are saying Riggy does not have the power over Kikuyu to make this move. I think he does.
Njamba use to teach us about how kikuyu think.
Kikuyu basically think they own kenya -
they are very angry that they have failed to nail Nairobi governorship - because they see themselves as owning most of Nairobi - historically sharing it with Maa.
Their support for Sakaja was never genuine.
They dont care about Merus or Kindiki or Embus.
Even Kiambu and Nyeri kikuyu have serious entitlement issues.
2022 - Uhuru fixed them. They never liked Ruto or Raila but when it came down - Ruto was better idea - as it came with added advantage of diaspora peace
They know Ruto ni moto moto now.
With those factoid - you can easily tell how they will play with.
The way I see Kikuyu will do PROPER REAL MATHS.
They will know Ruto is gone gone with ODM/Raila.
They will try to ensare silly Kalonzo but if it doesnt work - they will aim for 2032 - by putting a candidate out to become 2nd to Ruto
Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.
You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.
That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.
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Well its a nice plan :) if I was a Kikuyu like you. I'd push it. Shida tu Ruto is political giant.
In any case - if Rigathi become 2nds - it put him in good stead in 2032 against Kindikis
In a Run-off between Gachagua and Ruto,
Gachagua wins,He will have money,mouth and ability to consolidate goons and element within the security apparatus.
Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.
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GEMA voted for Ruto simply because he had supported them in 2013 and 2017 .
Uhuru betrayed GEMA by handshaking Raila and GEMA refused to follow him.
Similarly Ruto miscalculated by impeaching Gachagua and Broadbaising Raila and GEMA will punish Ruto .
Secondly Majority of ODM dislike Ruto . Ruto has fought Raila for 15 years this has an effect . Even if Ruto was to buy ODM he will only get a quarter of ODM electorate .
To be honest Ruto lost from the first day he was sworn in to be President then Genz revolution killed his legitimacy .
Njamba use to teach us about how kikuyu think.
Kikuyu basically think they own kenya -
they are very angry that they have failed to nail Nairobi governorship - because they see themselves as owning most of Nairobi - historically sharing it with Maa.
Their support for Sakaja was never genuine.
They dont care about Merus or Kindiki or Embus.
Even Kiambu and Nyeri kikuyu have serious entitlement issues.
2022 - Uhuru fixed them. They never liked Ruto or Raila but when it came down - Ruto was better idea - as it came with added advantage of diaspora peace
They know Ruto ni moto moto now.
With those factoid - you can easily tell how they will play with.
The way I see Kikuyu will do PROPER REAL MATHS.
They will know Ruto is gone gone with ODM/Raila.
They will try to ensare silly Kalonzo but if it doesnt work - they will aim for 2032 - by putting a candidate out to become 2nd to Ruto
Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.
You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.
That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.
Take themselves out another 10-20yrs.
I dont see it happening.
Listen more to Githunguri - he has better political lense than you.
You operate like a baby in kenya politics
That Kikuyu selfishness or turnout theory collapsed in 2022.
They turned up to crown Ruto and Sakaja.
No reason they won't do it for Kalonzo and Babu Owino.
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There is no scenario where Ruto makes it back .Raila/Uhuru had more money than Ruto and had Government machinery too but lost to Ruto simply because its not money nor government machinery which wins elections but voters . This time around they have decided Ruto to go out .
There is NO scenario where Ruto loses post Raila. HAKUNA. Ruto has TRILLIONS, he is crazy campaigner, he has gov machinery, he just cannot lose.
A Ruto loss leaves RiggyG in a very good position.
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Poleni but Ruto ni moto. Next 3 months - ODM get swallowed. Ruto will control Kamatusa, Somali+Borans, Coast, Luos, Luhyas, half Gusii, Iteso and all small tribes.
Kindiki will be doing damage in Mt Kenya East.
When I sum up all this - Ruto is already at 65% of the vote.
Kikuyus at 20% plus Kambas 10% plus other people who dont like Ruto = 35%.
Now I dont think Ruto will want to lose all Kikuyus and kambas.
So bado iko kazi hapo - Ruto will aim to get 20-30% of that pie - 10%.
Generally Ruto will pursue Uhuru's Jubilee and even Kalonzo.
In short prepare for 70% winning margin by Ruto in 2022 against helpless Gathietha.
Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.
-
First Ruto has almost all arsenals - you'd wish to have.
Raila/Uhuru dont know how use money - Ruto beat them to it - buying more leaders and people with money.
Now this useless opposition are looking up for kenyattas to provide funding.
And Kenyattas without Raila knows it hopeless mission
The last person to close opposition room will be Kalonzo and he will switch off the light.
2027 is over. Smart people are preparing for 2032 minus Ruto.
There is no scenario where Ruto makes it back .Raila/Uhuru had more money than Ruto and had Government machinery too but lost to Ruto simply because its not money nor government machinery which wins elections but voters . This time around they have decided Ruto to go out .
-
You see uou make your own facts and believe them .
Fact is Uhuru was involved in winning 3 elections 2007,2013,2017 .
Simple reason he could not win 2022 is because the people who made him win all those 2017, 2013 elections refused to board and follow him if he would have done what he did in 2007 and follow the people he would be on the winning side.
Uhuru /Raila had bought more leaders and parties than Ruto . Azimio as a coalition going to election was undeniably big you vould compare to Kenya Kwanza .
Ruto was lucky voters were on his side something he is not lucky with in 2027.
First Ruto has almost all arsenals - you'd wish to have.
Raila/Uhuru dont know how use money - Ruto beat them to it - buying more leaders and people with money.
Now this useless opposition are looking up for kenyattas to provide funding.
And Kenyattas without Raila knows it hopeless mission
The last person to close opposition room will be Kalonzo and he will switch off the light.
2027 is over. Smart people are preparing for 2032 minus Ruto.
There is no scenario where Ruto makes it back .Raila/Uhuru had more money than Ruto and had Government machinery too but lost to Ruto simply because its not money nor government machinery which wins elections but voters . This time around they have decided Ruto to go out .
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Where you go wrong is your whole premise of winning 2027 was Raila being in your side and now that he is gone ODM on your side .
First there is nothing like KAMATUSA
Maasai most definitely are anti Ruto
Turkana always split their votes same as Samburu
Somali Ruto performed extremely badly in 2022 he was defeated by Raila there. They will also split their votes
Luo will never vote for Ruto they hate him with passion for the last 17 years he has been fighting them and main reason Raila never became president . Just like GEMA refused to vote for Raila after handshake same way Luo wont vote for Ruto.
As for Luhyas and Coast he will perform the same way he did in 2022
Gussii My Kenya East voting for Ruto is beyond a fantasy even the thought of that is pure madness
Ruto is a One Term President
Poleni but Ruto ni moto. Next 3 months - ODM get swallowed. Ruto will control Kamatusa, Somali+Borans, Coast, Luos, Luhyas, half Gusii, Iteso and all small tribes.
Kindiki will be doing damage in Mt Kenya East.
When I sum up all this - Ruto is already at 65% of the vote.
Kikuyus at 20% plus Kambas 10% plus other people who dont like Ruto = 35%.
Now I dont think Ruto will want to lose all Kikuyus and kambas.
So bado iko kazi hapo - Ruto will aim to get 20-30% of that pie - 10%.
Generally Ruto will pursue Uhuru's Jubilee and even Kalonzo.
In short prepare for 70% winning margin by Ruto in 2022 against helpless Gathietha.
Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.
-
In 2022 when I was saying facts point to Ruto winning Then I was not crazy . Now facts point to Ruto becoming a one term President all over a sudden Im crazy .
Pundit will retire from online in 2027 September . The goodness he usually comes out clear .
In his retirement thread he will state the mistakes Ruto made which is what I have been singing . 2027 will be the changeover of Kenyan politicians end of KANU bred politicians .
:) prediction: Pundit will skirt this and call you crazy.
Ruto faces serious STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS... that line the stars for Kalonzo.
Where you go wrong is your whole premise of winning 2027 was Raila being in your side and now that he is gone ODM on your side .
First there is nothing like KAMATUSA
Maasai most definitely are anti Ruto
Turkana always split their votes same as Samburu
Somali Ruto performed extremely badly in 2022 he was defeated by Raila there. They will also split their votes
Luo will never vote for Ruto they hate him with passion for the last 17 years he has been fighting them and main reason Raila never became president . Just like GEMA refused to vote for Raila after handshake same way Luo wont vote for Ruto.
As for Luhyas and Coast he will perform the same way he did in 2022
Gussii My Kenya East voting for Ruto is beyond a fantasy even the thought of that is pure madness
Ruto is a One Term President
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You believe Kikuyus or Mt kenya are 50% plus one of kenya.
This is your problem.
Ruto already gave you the FCK you card by impeaching Gachagua.
Right now ODM-UDA are moving very fast towards merge.
No opposition so far - except by Sifuna, Orengo and Otsotsi.
Once we merge ODM Raila machinery with UDA Ruto machinery - let even say URP machinery
URP secured 27% in 2013.
Raila secured 33-35% always - 85-95Mps.
Combine those two - it over for opposition.
Ruto min will win with 60%.
So far only 7 counties he will not his 25% - Muranga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Kirinyanga, Makueni, Machakos(*) and Kitui.
Kiambu he will get 25% - so many non-kikuyus there nowadays.
Nairobi 50-50 as always. Nakuru 50-50. Laikipia slight edge for Gachagua *.
The rest of counties Ruto will SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP
You see uou make your own facts and believe them .
Fact is Uhuru was involved in winning 3 elections 2007,2013,2017 .
Simple reason he could not win 2022 is because the people who made him win all those 2017, 2013 elections refused to board and follow him if he would have done what he did in 2007 and follow the people he would be on the winning side.
Uhuru /Raila had bought more leaders and parties than Ruto . Azimio as a coalition going to election was undeniably big you vould compare to Kenya Kwanza .
Ruto was lucky voters were on his side something he is not lucky with in 2027.
First Ruto has almost all arsenals - you'd wish to have.
Raila/Uhuru dont know how use money - Ruto beat them to it - buying more leaders and people with money.
Now this useless opposition are looking up for kenyattas to provide funding.
And Kenyattas without Raila knows it hopeless mission
The last person to close opposition room will be Kalonzo and he will switch off the light.
2027 is over. Smart people are preparing for 2032 minus Ruto.
There is no scenario where Ruto makes it back .Raila/Uhuru had more money than Ruto and had Government machinery too but lost to Ruto simply because its not money nor government machinery which wins elections but voters . This time around they have decided Ruto to go out .
-
Ruto became President because of Mt Kenya his 49% of Votes came from Mt Kenyans. Reason also why Uhuru won in. 2013 and 2017 . This Constituion gives Mt Kenya a headsup start .Thanks to ODM internal wars circa 2008-2010.
I myself was not Gachagua supporter you were more of his loyalist you and RVHH but Once Ruto impeached him I knew its last coffin to his 2027 re-election bid . How do you impeach someone because of ego ? Even Uhuru never dared to do that because he knew not only of political implications but also it would become personal . Betrayal for politicians is nothing they usually later strike deals but that there is crossing the line . Once Ruto is out of power they will go against his wealth , Moi was saved by Kibaki .
Save the stories of UDA-ODM merger , We know how KANU -NDP merger went by nil traction , ODM-Jubilee merger still GEMA didnt board .
You can imagine UDA-ODM merger without Raila …. You sound like Robina pre 2022 ooohh With Uhuru supporting Raila GEMA will vote to man for Raila we all know the outcome.
GENZ revolution was a pre-cursor of 2027 elections , Kenyans are tired of Ruto and his government same as they were with Moi no amount of gerrymandering will save this fact.
I repeat after 2027 elections you will retire from Nipate and you will be the first to state why Ruto failed you are good in post analysis ……
Would you mind explaining why Moi lost 2002 elections ?
You believe Kikuyus or Mt kenya are 50% plus one of kenya.
This is your problem.
Ruto already gave you the FCK you card by impeaching Gachagua.
Right now ODM-UDA are moving very fast towards merge.
No opposition so far - except by Sifuna, Orengo and Otsotsi.
Once we merge ODM Raila machinery with UDA Ruto machinery - let even say URP machinery
URP secured 27% in 2013.
Raila secured 33-35% always - 85-95Mps.
Combine those two - it over for opposition.
Ruto min will win with 60%.
So far only 7 counties he will not his 25% - Muranga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Kirinyanga, Makueni, Machakos(*) and Kitui.
Kiambu he will get 25% - so many non-kikuyus there nowadays.
Nairobi 50-50 as always. Nakuru 50-50. Laikipia slight edge for Gachagua *.
The rest of counties Ruto will SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP
You see uou make your own facts and believe them .
Fact is Uhuru was involved in winning 3 elections 2007,2013,2017 .
Simple reason he could not win 2022 is because the people who made him win all those 2017, 2013 elections refused to board and follow him if he would have done what he did in 2007 and follow the people he would be on the winning side.
Uhuru /Raila had bought more leaders and parties than Ruto . Azimio as a coalition going to election was undeniably big you vould compare to Kenya Kwanza .
Ruto was lucky voters were on his side something he is not lucky with in 2027.
First Ruto has almost all arsenals - you'd wish to have.
Raila/Uhuru dont know how use money - Ruto beat them to it - buying more leaders and people with money.
Now this useless opposition are looking up for kenyattas to provide funding.
And Kenyattas without Raila knows it hopeless mission
The last person to close opposition room will be Kalonzo and he will switch off the light.
2027 is over. Smart people are preparing for 2032 minus Ruto.
There is no scenario where Ruto makes it back .Raila/Uhuru had more money than Ruto and had Government machinery too but lost to Ruto simply because its not money nor government machinery which wins elections but voters . This time around they have decided Ruto to go out .