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Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Omollo on February 27, 2015, 12:20:17 PM

Title: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on February 27, 2015, 12:20:17 PM
With Machar now assured of total support from Sudan, he is not about to accept number three. Kiir has not accepted the fact that his position is precarious. Both sides still see a solution in war. If they impose sanctions, Machar would be the least affected as he will continue getting support from El Bashir regardless. Kiir is relying on Uganda and Uhuru Kenyatta.

The only danger I see is the war spilling in to Uganda and Kenya because of meddling.

Quote
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir says he will not accept Dr Riek Machar, who led a rebellion against him, as the first vice-president in the current peace negotiations.

In an exclusive interview with The EastAfrican from State House, Juba, President Kiir said he would only agree to Dr Machar coming in at position three as the second vice-president or non-executive prime minister.

PERSONAL POSITION

“My personal position and the position of my party is that Machar should not be the first-vice president. He can come in as number three as agreed in Addis Ababa in August last year. He wanted the position of prime minister and I accepted, despite the fact that we don’t have it in the Constitution.

“But when the pecking order was put forward by the mediators, they had the president, vice-president, prime minister, two deputies and council of ministers. Machar rejected it because he wanted to be an executive prime minister who will exercise all the powers and the president becomes ceremonial. He was told ‘no’, because this was an elected executive president. If you want to be an executive prime minister or president, then  you wait for elections and keep out of this government. He wanted to share executive powers with the president and yet these powers were given by the people,” Mr Kiir said.

President Kiir added that the Igad talks in Addis Ababa after violence broke out in South Sudan in December 2013, could only end the conflict if the mediators acknowledged that Dr Machar’s men were “coup plotters”.

He also spoke about the pressure from regional leaders and his views on claims that Kenya supports the Machar group.

Read the full interview in your issue of The EastAfrican, on sale from Saturday.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Kiir-Why-Machar-will-not-be-my-Number-2/-/1064/2636950/-/7sx1q/-/index.html
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: RV Pundit on February 27, 2015, 02:28:05 PM
Kiir seem to claim Kenya support Machar?
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on February 27, 2015, 02:37:11 PM
It is the confusion in Foreign Affairs you identified several weeks ago that is causing this problem. Kenya has not made it clear where she stands thus we have the talks taking place in Tanzania and Ethiopia which are seen as neutral despite Kenya's long history with these guys. Both Kiir and Machar own property in Kenya as did Mabior and every South Sudanese leader.
Kiir seem to claim Kenya support Machar?
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on February 27, 2015, 10:07:51 PM
kamwana is against Riek Machar if memory serves me right. 

I also doubt if Machar is moving to live in Juba anytime soon anyway, as long as Kiir is hositing Museveni's soldiers.  Neither of them signed the agreement in good faith.  Perhaps a few more thousands of lives might make them see the need.  Who knows?
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: MOON Ki on February 28, 2015, 01:17:08 AM
kamwana is against Riek Machar if memory serves me right. 

I also doubt if Machar is moving to live in Juba anytime soon anyway, as long as Kiir is hositing Museveni's soldiers.  Neither of them signed the agreement in good faith.  Perhaps a few more thousands of lives might make them see the need.  Who knows?

Riek Machar or Riek Marach?  Remains to be seen.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Mr Mansfield. on March 01, 2015, 03:50:15 PM
I think Dinkas are double the population of Nuer which means if we were to go for elections,Ricket machar would be given a thrashing,

No east African leader is interested with machar,you know south Sudan feeds China with crude oil and China being a darling of the east African leaders in mega projects has to pull strings,

Without Prejudice.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: MOON Ki on March 06, 2015, 08:46:12 PM
Omollo:

You were right.

Incredible, though.   These guys fight Bashir for years and years.  Finally, they get their own country.  And then they start to fight each other.   

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/South-Sudan-peace-talks-collapse/-/1066/2644956/-/6xn4lkz/-/index.html
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on March 06, 2015, 08:58:14 PM
Oil is a curse in its own right!

Omollo:

You were right.

Incredible, though.   These guys fight Bashir for years and years.  Finally, they get their own country.  And then they start to fight each other.   

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/South-Sudan-peace-talks-collapse/-/1066/2644956/-/6xn4lkz/-/index.html

Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: MOON Ki on March 06, 2015, 09:48:03 PM
Oil is a curse in its own right!

Could be.  Still, as an "average fellow", here's what I would be thinking:

* After so many years of fighting, it would be nice to have some time-out.

* Let's not go the "traditional African way", let's learn a few lessons from history.   

Is "Government vs. Rebels" an absolute necessity in African governance?
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on March 06, 2015, 10:44:37 PM
Omollo:

You were right.

Incredible, though.   These guys fight Bashir for years and years.  Finally, they get their own country.  And then they start to fight each other.   

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/South-Sudan-peace-talks-collapse/-/1066/2644956/-/6xn4lkz/-/index.html (http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/South-Sudan-peace-talks-collapse/-/1066/2644956/-/6xn4lkz/-/index.html)

The fight with Bashir was merely a postponement for the tribal fights.  Once Bashir was out of the picture, they figured they have all the time in the world to sort their issues out. 

I read somewhere that the AU blames the usual bazungus for the mess in South Sudan.  That this would not be happening if they had not taken the secession route.

There is an absence of imagination in how the South Sudan man goes about his business.  Maybe if he is left alone, in 20 years time he might figure something out like the Somalis.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: MOON Ki on March 18, 2015, 10:11:42 PM
Here we go: even with 50 years of continental history to learn from, Kiir is determined that his country must go the African way---the hard way. 

"Hopes of an end to South Sudan’s 15-month old civil war were dealt another blow today as President Salva Kiir ruled out a proposed power-sharing deal with rebels.
...
War broke out in December 2013 when Kiir accused Machar, his former deputy, of planning a coup. Since then tens of thousands have died, two million have been uprooted and four million face starvation.
"

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/I-will-not-share-power-S-Sudan-leader-tells-rally/-/1066/2658326/-/nrywglz/-/index.html
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Reticent Solipsist on March 19, 2015, 07:15:43 AM
Here we go: even with 50 years of continental history to learn from, Kiir is determined that his country must go the African way---the hard way. 

"Hopes of an end to South Sudan’s 15-month old civil war were dealt another blow today as President Salva Kiir ruled out a proposed power-sharing deal with rebels.
...
War broke out in December 2013 when Kiir accused Machar, his former deputy, of planning a coup. Since then tens of thousands have died, two million have been uprooted and four million face starvation.
"

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/I-will-not-share-power-S-Sudan-leader-tells-rally/-/1066/2658326/-/nrywglz/-/index.html

An African president nay ruler decoded: he is simple, reflexive, and emotional. Save for Nyerere and Mandela, and probably Senghor, there are other decent ones, e.g, Quett Masire, Chissano, Kufuor, Mkapa, Pohamba. The rest have the psychological and emotional profile of a Salva Kiir.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on March 25, 2015, 04:27:01 PM
Resembles Kibaki's appointment of half a cabinet as the country bled....

Quote
South Sudan's parliament voted on Tuesday to extend President Salva Kiir's term in office by three years, after elections due to be held in June were called off and negotiations to end more than a year of internal conflict broke up without agreement.

Speaker Manasseh Magok Rundial said parliament overwhelmingly approved Kiir's extension, as well as similar three-year prolongation of parliament's own term. Thousands of people have been killed and more than a million have fled their homes since fighting between supporters of Kiir and former vice president Riek Machar erupted in the world's newest nation in December 2013.

Talks between the two groups broke up nearly three weeks ago with no deal and no future date set for their resumption, prompting the mediator to say leaders on both sides were failing in their duty to find peace. The 270 members of parliament present voted on Tuesday to amend the country's transitional 2011 constitution to extend the presidential and parliamentary term until July 9, 2018, with 264 members in favour and a handful opposing it.

In a roadmap to peace agreed in February, Kiir and Machar had agreed the outlines of a power-sharing deal, and they had hoped to reach a final accord by the end of March. But the talks appear stalled, and fighting continues. The army said it had repulsed an attack by Machar's rebel forces in southern Unity State on Tuesday. "Rebel forces clashed with SPLA (army) forces in Nhialdiu and Bentiu but SPLA defeated them. At the moment we are yet to establish the exact number of casualties," army spokesman Col. Philip Aguer said. In February, government spokesman Michael Makuei said that the proposal to extend Kiir and parliament's terms was aimed at avoiding any power vacuum in the event that the government fails to reach a permanent deal with rebels. The lawmakers however rejected extension of the life-term of state governors, saying the Transitional Constitution did not refer to them. "Our constitution only talks of parliament and presidency, so it is up to the resident either let them continue or not in the coming transitional period," said Onyoti Adigo, parliamentary minority leader.
Read more at: http://standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000156046/south-sudan-parliament-extends-salva-kiir-s-term-by-3-years/
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: MOON Ki on March 25, 2015, 05:18:02 PM
Quote
"South Sudan's parliament voted on Tuesday to extend President Salva Kiir's term in office by three years, after elections due to be held in June were called off and negotiations to end more than a year of internal conflict broke up without agreement."

Amazing, this Kiir fellow and his followers.    It's not very often that a country makes such a clear choice for a full-scale civil war.   We now await Machar's full-hearted "acceptance" of this invitation to mayhem.

The African head can be a very hard one.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: RV Pundit on March 25, 2015, 05:48:00 PM
Sanctions should be imposed on Kiir. That should happen at UNSC level.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on May 16, 2015, 01:08:18 PM
News from the forgotten war.

While Kiir applied the Dinka stamp on every SS institution, the other guy has been arming thanks to the Mother Government in the North and has decided to remind him of the little detail of the unfinished war.

Kiir is not interested in peace if he can exclude the non-Dinkas and still be hailed as "President" wearing his designer suits and American hand made shoes.

This sign tell it all and those hiring a bus at the airport for 2 millions a month (better buses plying Mombasa - Kisumu don't raise that much) should expect such a sign: Kikuyus .... Luos ... Luhyas .... Others.

See how Dr. Riek "Macharia" has put on the kilos. If I didn't know better I would say he is overeating. In Africa men put on weight with every million dollars they make. War has been good to Macharia.

Compare with the emaciated moving skeletons that he uses as hostages as he makes demands in their name...
(https://nyamiledotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/nuer-dinka.png)
Quote
JUBA

Rebels in South Sudan have launched a large-scale attack on the strategic northern oil hub and state capital of Malakal, an official and aid sources said Saturday.

Fierce fighting was reported to be raging inside the town, situated in the country's oil-rich north, in what appeared to be a major counter-attack against a several weeks-old offensive by government troops.

"The rebels of Riek Machar have attacked Malakal from all directions, from east, west, north and south, and the fighting up to now is continuing," Information Minister Michael Makuei told AFP.

He said government troops had so far "managed to repulse the rebels" to keep them from capturing the town, the capital of Upper Nile State.

Malakal has changed hands several times since South Sudan's civil war broke out in December 2013, when President Salva Kiir accused his sacked deputy Machar of attempting a coup. The country has since been carved up along ethnic lines, divided between Kiir's Dinka tribe and Machar's Nuer tribe.

Since the war began tens of thousands of people have been killed in the fighting in the world's youngest nation, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011.

POWERFUL COMMANDER

Officials said the attack began just before darkness on Friday, with rebels crossing the White Nile river on boats — apparently aided by a local militia commander from the ethnic Shilluk people who had been a pro-government general.

The commander, Johnson Olony, is a powerful commander in the key oil-producing state of Upper Nile. He has also been accused of abducting scores of children to fight in his force.

"It was Olony who transported the rebels across the river bank to Malakal," Makuei said.

Aid workers in the town who spoke to AFP reported intense gunfire as well as the thump of heavy explosions from artillery or mortar fire.

On Friday a report by the regional bloc pushing peace efforts accused South Sudan's army of carrying out "grave" human rights abuses in their all-out offensive.

East Africa's eight-country IGAD bloc — whose peace initiative collapsed in March — condemned the "unwarranted and appalling actions" of the government, reporting "violence targeting civilians, grave human rights abuses and destruction of villages."

The assault, which began in late April, is one of the heaviest government offensives in the 17-month long civil war, with gunmen raping, torching towns and looting aid supplies in the northern battleground state of Unity, according to the UN and aid agencies.

The UN's aid chief in South Sudan, Toby Lanzer, this week said the number of civilians left without "life-saving aid" due to the offensive in Unity alone had risen to 500,000, after the UN and aid agencies pulled out due to a surge in fighting.

Over half of the country's 12 million people are in need of aid, with 2.5 million people facing severe food insecurity, according to the UN.
(http://www.nation.co.ke/image/view/-/2718250/highRes/1013971/-/maxw/600/-/4vi0hc/-/506921-01-02.jpg)
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Simanova on July 08, 2016, 09:41:01 PM
This country is dead.
Quote
Gunfire erupted near the presidential palace in South Sudan's capital Juba on Friday, in the latest blow to a shaky peace deal in the world's youngest country.

President Salva Kiir and his deputy, former rebel leader Riek Machar, were both at the compound preparing to address the media in a show of solidarity when sporadic gunfire and artillery was heard outside for around 30 minutes before spreading to other parts of the city.

There was confusion as the shooting died down, with Kiir telling reporters: "What is happening outside is something we cannot explain to you."

James Gatdet Dak, a spokesperson for Machar, said in a statement, "the heavy fighting which erupted... has subsided."

"The two leaders are calling for calm, hopefully there will be calm," he said.

The fresh violence came a day after five soldiers were killed in a shootout with former rebels in Juba, just as the country prepares to mark its fifth anniversary of independence from Sudan on Saturday.

It was believed to be the first time the army and former rebels had clashed in the capital since both established positions there as part of the August 2015 peace agreement.

Army spokesman Lul Ruai Koang said the five soldiers, all loyal to Kiir, were killed and two others wounded in the shootout at a checkpoint in the city's Gudele neighbourhood.

Gudele was the scene of tribal massacres at the outbreak of the war in December 2013.

A UN worker was also reportedly injured in a separate shooting and a US embassy vehicle was also shot at, according to Nyarji Roman, a spokesman for rebel leader turned vice president Machar.

(READ: Little to celebrate as South Sudan turns five)

'ISOLATED INCIDENT'

The peace process has all but stalled, with hardliners on both sides uninterested in a negotiated settlement and mistrust and bad faith characterising relations within the unity government.

Fighting has continued outside the capital with the most recent serious clashes taking place in the town of Wau late last month.

The peace deal was supposed to end a civil war that began when Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup.

But Machar did not return to the capital until April, and fighting has continued despite the establishment of a unity government.

Roman said Thursday's shooting began when two vehicles used by Machar's bodyguards were stopped by soldiers.

He said two former rebels were also injured in the clash.

Koang blamed the former rebels for the "hostile fire" but insisted it was "an isolated incident".

Tens of thousands of people have died in more than two years of civil war, close to three million have been forced from their homes and nearly five million survive on emergency food rations.

The country is also facing an economic crisis with the currency collapsing and inflation spiralling out of control.

South Sudan's mainstay oil industry is in tatters and regional towns have been razed.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Gunfire-erupts-in-South-Sudan-capital/-/1066/3286630/-/1wp3m1/-/index.html
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Simanova on July 08, 2016, 11:42:52 PM
Speaking of a Third Force.....
Quote
South Sudan President Salvar Kiir, VP Riek Machar holed up inside the presidential palace. Outside, sustained gunfire being reported.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Simanova on July 09, 2016, 12:22:17 AM
Quote
July 8, 2016 (JUBA) – Heavy fighting has erupted inside South Sudan’s presidential palace as President Salva Kiir allegedly attempted to arrest his first deputy, Riek Machar, official sources have said.

There is heavy fighting going on near the Presidential Palace in Juba as we speak,” James Gatdet Dak, Machar’s spokesperson told Sudan Tribune.

He said the fighting started outside the Palace when President Kiir’s security forces opened fire on bodyguards of the First Vice President, Riek Machar, who was inside the Palace for a presidency meeting.

Dak said Machar was called to President Kiir’s office by the President for a Presidency meeting to discuss the clashes which occurred between their forces on Thursday evening.

He said after Machar arrived at the Palace and as the meeting was about to start, heavy shooting started near the Palace.

“I just want to say Dr. Machar is safe under the protection of his bodyguards,” Dak said, without giving more details.

Other sources said the meeting was a setup to lure Machar to the president’s office and arrest him.

The circumstances under which the shooting erupted remain unclear. A presidential source said he heard gunfire and explosions about two blocks away from presidential palace in Juba.

President Kiir has not been seen in public since tension began on Thursday evening, but those in his inner circle said on Friday he was at his residence and had called on the army to restrain.

It was not immediately clear whether the authorities have ordered land and sea borders closed to seal all the exits should situation deteriorate.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article59548
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on May 19, 2017, 03:08:52 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_3v0_dXoAAikqT.jpg)
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on May 19, 2017, 03:09:28 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_3v6SJWAAAzosz.jpg)
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on May 19, 2017, 03:09:48 PM
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on May 19, 2017, 03:12:16 PM
The solution to the new and recurrent problems in East Africa lie in the creation of one super state comprising of Uganda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and with time DRC
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants on May 19, 2017, 04:27:32 PM
The solution to the new and recurrent problems in East Africa lie in the creation of one super state comprising of Uganda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and with time DRC

It would take one hell of a dictator to keep it together.  I think free movement of peoples is doable though.  Apart from Ethiopia, everything in Eastern Africa is a colonial artifact.
Title: Re: I Don't See a Negotiated Peace in South Sudan
Post by: Omollo on May 19, 2017, 06:49:25 PM
There are some things that will vanish.

I can see all sudanese moving to "Kenya" while Kenyans move to SS and TZ to get cheap fertile land.

Ethiopians will help end corruption with their discipline and if the rest play games, they will produce that dictator.

The solution to the new and recurrent problems in East Africa lie in the creation of one super state comprising of Uganda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and with time DRC

It would take one hell of a dictator to keep it together.  I think free movement of peoples is doable though.  Apart from Ethiopia, everything in Eastern Africa is a colonial artifact.