I think as long as Raila said he will be in Government until Mid 2027, opposition will always be in disarray. If in 2027 he decided to throw his hat in the ring, whatever united opposition has put forward will go in flames. In the meantime if Raila stay behind for 2027, Ruto will have implemnted 100% of his plan. He now has about solid 5-6 million loyal voters in contact. He will only need to look for few votes by putting final touches on his manifesto as he unload a much bigger and effective tutam plan!
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni recently acknowledged Gachagua's impact. "It is true that Gachagua appears to be the only man who can batter President Ruto with clarity and efficiency. He is a very important player in the 'Wantam' cause and we appreciate him."
I had a very successful and fulfilling visit to the United States of America with serious engagements with Kenyans in the Diaspora.
— Rigathi Gachagua (@rigathi) August 14, 2025
I regret being unable to visit the scheduled remaining States since I need to get back home to join our party, @DCP_Democracy, in preparation for…
DCP unlikely to win anything outside mbeere
9 out 12 in Mbeere want to run on UDA
https://www.kbc.co.ke/uda-holds-strategic-retreat-with-9-aspirants-eyeing-mbeere-north-seat/
Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.
Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.
Muturi DP seems to have the popular candidate.
I imagine the MCAs will resign before handing papers to IEBC.
You only resign if you win.
We have BUS, DP, DCP and UDA confirmed running.
We dont know of Jubilee and other parties.
Mt kenya is going to be messy - in next electionMbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.
Muturi DP seems to have the popular candidate.
I imagine the MCAs will resign before handing papers to IEBC.
Not sure if fat Matiang'i will deliver few MCAs in Nyamira. If he has working grey cells.Matiang'i is a severely wounded soldier. No party – he cannot criticise the government because of that big land case. He is partyless, and only tags along with the Kenya Moja coalition, then goes back to UDA honchos and reports the secrets as he negotiates the case to be dropped!
Not sure if fat Matiang'i will deliver few MCAs in Nyamira. If he has working grey cells.Matiang'i is a severely wounded soldier. No party – he cannot criticise the government because of that big land case. He is partyless, and only tags along with the Kenya Moja coalition, then goes back to UDA honchos and reports the secrets as he negotiates the case to be dropped!
#We are united in our patriotic duty to liberate our nation. We shall get this nation back on track together.
— Rigathi Gachagua (@rigathi) September 3, 2025
God bless Kenya. pic.twitter.com/PGktl9ft6T
Seem biggest battle will be In Mbeere and Malava - the rest will be friendly btw UDA and ODM
Mbeere - Former Muscian MCA Candidate Karis seem to be front runner.
Malava - Son of Malulu is favoured
https://www.tuko.co.ke/politics/601956-uda-preferred-party-malava-by-election-mizani-poll/
Seems UDA-ODM are losing in Mbeere and Malava. Very bad for them.
Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.
Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollsterYea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.
1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT
2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit
3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"
4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating
SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollsterYea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.
Been following that handle on X - opposition/gachagua/kikuyu kind of leaning. But like you said they did well and we should not dismiss them; esp without any contrary evidence; My embu wife and people tell me in Embu Ruto is leaking. Maybe Mbeere is a little different.1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT
2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit
3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"
4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating
SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollsterYea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.