I think as long as Raila said he will be in Government until Mid 2027, opposition will always be in disarray. If in 2027 he decided to throw his hat in the ring, whatever united opposition has put forward will go in flames. In the meantime if Raila stay behind for 2027, Ruto will have implemnted 100% of his plan. He now has about solid 5-6 million loyal voters in contact. He will only need to look for few votes by putting final touches on his manifesto as he unload a much bigger and effective tutam plan!
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni recently acknowledged Gachagua's impact. "It is true that Gachagua appears to be the only man who can batter President Ruto with clarity and efficiency. He is a very important player in the 'Wantam' cause and we appreciate him."
I had a very successful and fulfilling visit to the United States of America with serious engagements with Kenyans in the Diaspora.
— Rigathi Gachagua (@rigathi) August 14, 2025
I regret being unable to visit the scheduled remaining States since I need to get back home to join our party, @DCP_Democracy, in preparation for…
DCP unlikely to win anything outside mbeere
9 out 12 in Mbeere want to run on UDA
https://www.kbc.co.ke/uda-holds-strategic-retreat-with-9-aspirants-eyeing-mbeere-north-seat/
Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.
Mbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.
Muturi DP seems to have the popular candidate.
I imagine the MCAs will resign before handing papers to IEBC.
You only resign if you win.
We have BUS, DP, DCP and UDA confirmed running.
We dont know of Jubilee and other parties.
Mt kenya is going to be messy - in next electionMbeere..
DCP has MCA candidate;
BUs party by Lenny Kivuitu has MCA muscian Karis Netwon.
We wait for UDA candidate.
Muturi DP seems to have the popular candidate.
I imagine the MCAs will resign before handing papers to IEBC.
Not sure if fat Matiang'i will deliver few MCAs in Nyamira. If he has working grey cells.Matiang'i is a severely wounded soldier. No party – he cannot criticise the government because of that big land case. He is partyless, and only tags along with the Kenya Moja coalition, then goes back to UDA honchos and reports the secrets as he negotiates the case to be dropped!
Not sure if fat Matiang'i will deliver few MCAs in Nyamira. If he has working grey cells.Matiang'i is a severely wounded soldier. No party – he cannot criticise the government because of that big land case. He is partyless, and only tags along with the Kenya Moja coalition, then goes back to UDA honchos and reports the secrets as he negotiates the case to be dropped!
#We are united in our patriotic duty to liberate our nation. We shall get this nation back on track together.
— Rigathi Gachagua (@rigathi) September 3, 2025
God bless Kenya. pic.twitter.com/PGktl9ft6T
Seem biggest battle will be In Mbeere and Malava - the rest will be friendly btw UDA and ODM
Mbeere - Former Muscian MCA Candidate Karis seem to be front runner.
Malava - Son of Malulu is favoured
https://www.tuko.co.ke/politics/601956-uda-preferred-party-malava-by-election-mizani-poll/
Seems UDA-ODM are losing in Mbeere and Malava. Very bad for them.
Yea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.
Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollsterYea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.
1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT
2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit
3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"
4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating
SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollsterYea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.
Been following that handle on X - opposition/gachagua/kikuyu kind of leaning. But like you said they did well and we should not dismiss them; esp without any contrary evidence; My embu wife and people tell me in Embu Ruto is leaking. Maybe Mbeere is a little different.1. 2022 PORK: bull's eye
Mizani did better than Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak in 2022. They had Ruto beating Raila by <1% - better than you RV Pundit 👀 - while the rest had Raila winning by 2-5%. HIT
2: 2022 major downstream: nicked some top, missed others.
Nairobi governor they had Sakaja winning. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Nairobi senator they had Sifuna winning. Hit
Nairobi Women Rep they had Omanga beating Pasaris. Miss
Mombasa governor they had Nassir beating Omar. Hit (TIFA also got it correct)
Kirinyaga governor they had Ngirici beating Waiguru. Miss
Machakos they had Wavinya beating Muthama. Hit
Meru they had Kawira beating Linturi. Hit
3. Pre-2022 byelections
Kibra 2019 - Mizani had ODM Imran Okoth beating Jubilee McDee Mariga. Hit (TIFA also had it correct)
Msambweni 2020 - Mizani had ODM Omar Boga beating Ruto-backed independent Feisal Bader. Miss (TIFA also missed with bigger pro-ODM bias)
Matungu 2021 - Mizani had ODM David Were beating of ANC Oscar Nabulindo. Miss
Kabuchai 2021 - no Mizani data
Machakos 2021 - no Mizani data
Juja 2021 - no Mizani data
Kiambaa 2021 - Mizani had UDA Kawanjiku beating Jubilee Kariri Njama by 56 v 31%. "Hit"
4. BIAS:
Here our interest is the byelections since we are concerned with bias against Ruto the underdog.
Mizani missed Msambweni and Matungu. pro-ODM, anti-Ruto bias?
But Kiambaa was arguably the most critical byelection (akin to Mbeere today) - at least they got it correct with no anti-Ruto bias. Perhaps pro-Ruto bias? 56-31 dog beating
SUM: I see average competence and possible bias in Mizani. Obviosuly Ruto has more cash now to buy polls. Let us see if Ipsos, TIFA, InfoTrak come up with something in the 2 months window.Dont trust Mizani too much; They are likely Pro-opposition pollsterYea in Mbeere apart from Kuria CCK even Mbus backs DP Karish.
Malava it UDA vs DAP-K. DCP there is Malala nonsense not RiggyG. I thought he had some gravitas but seeing his Edgar Busiega at meagre 4%. Almost mkia. Malala need to withdraw not to embarass himself.
I don't see UDA doing well in either case. Objectively Ruto has done fair. But something about being GoK-backed cause big problems in Zamunda. It's a mzungu hangover of sirikali ni mbaya.
Our October 2025 survey shows a major reshuffle in Mbeere North’s political landscape. Hon. Leonard Wamuthende leads with 40.1 %, pulling ahead of Hon. Newton Karish at 33.1 %, while Hon.Duncun Mbui lags far behind at 5.1 %. A notable 21.5 % of voters remain undecided, signaling… pic.twitter.com/V5gCMFYpf8
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) October 22, 2025
Looks like it from that Mizani poll.
If opposition lose Mbeere and/or Malava they will be in serious trouble.
Likely to lose because UDA stuck to RUto democratic ideals and held primaries.
Primaries are good mini elections.
The rest of parties didnt do that - ODM did.
ODM-UDA have arrangment not compete against each other.
Kindiki win - Fire si Fire - he will clean up Rigathi from Mt kenya East.
Then he should get Uhuru to endorse him as Mt Kenya leader
If UDA wins it will be because of heavy spending not primaries. But without concrete proof of illegality that's fair and square. RiggyG is free to preach Ruto is mwizi using SHA and HELB cash.
Unless Ruto makes another serious fcuk up like the Gen Z fiasco, I dont see any challenge on him regardless of outcome.
Neck and Neck in Malava - Naona kuna Mnandi Tuwei?Ayub Savaula decamped from supporting the United Opposition and is now with David Ndakwa. Tuwei seems Kalenjin but could be Tiriki/Kabras or a smaller Luhya tribe as well. If it's Kale, I'm sure Farouk will shove him aside. In Malava, it is now Farouk vs Seth, and it looks like Kabras-speaking Farouk is kicking Seth in his own neck of the woods. It shows if you can relate and open your wallet, Luhya people, especially women, will give you votes regardless! If Ndakwa loses, it will be by a small margin. All indications show he will win! President and top Luhya leadership led by Wetangula and the rest will be camping in Malava the last few days! Voters care more about development and wallets, and anything else is ujinga tupu!
DAP 44% v UDA 37%
https://x.com/Mizaniafrica/status/1986644832303935908
Ayub Savaula decamped from supporting the United Opposition and is now with David Ndakwa. Tuwei seems Kalenjin but could be Tiriki/Kabras or a smaller Luhya tribe as well. If it's Kale, I'm sure Farouk will shove him aside. In Malava, it is now Farouk vs Seth, and it looks like Kabras-speaking Farouk is kicking Seth in his own neck of the woods. It shows if you can relate and open your wallet, Luhya people, especially women, will give you votes regardless! If Ndakwa loses, it will be by a small margin. All indications show he will win! President and top Luhya leadership led by Wetangula and the rest will be camping in Malava the last few days! Voters care more about development and wallets, and anything else is ujinga tupu!
MaDVD and Weta plus ODM need to realize that DCP will become a problem unless stopped. The next 2 weeks will be critical.Ayub Savaula decamped from supporting the United Opposition and is now with David Ndakwa. Tuwei seems Kalenjin but could be Tiriki/Kabras or a smaller Luhya tribe as well. If it's Kale, I'm sure Farouk will shove him aside. In Malava, it is now Farouk vs Seth, and it looks like Kabras-speaking Farouk is kicking Seth in his own neck of the woods. It shows if you can relate and open your wallet, Luhya people, especially women, will give you votes regardless! If Ndakwa loses, it will be by a small margin. All indications show he will win! President and top Luhya leadership led by Wetangula and the rest will be camping in Malava the last few days! Voters care more about development and wallets, and anything else is ujinga tupu!
Sick and drunkard Justin Muturi and Broke sick Gachavu will take a massive political hit if they lose after camping in Mbeere preaching tribalism, wantam, and hurling stupid slogans
(https://scontent-atl3-3.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/583692770_10231305453283545_278204176457221605_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=aa7b47&_nc_ohc=2foSkOLAD3oQ7kNvwEMRinx&_nc_oc=AdlhcPlABQdwVBGsOlblcNi4zo5eUCzzqy8hactr5UkSyMNTbm0qsKwGJHRwnL2Bs5M&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-3.xx&_nc_gid=Rtk1tzpE8NmlwzcgtlKm0A&oh=00_AfhAXZqCsNF7a_IRf_ye_SDRLfJCqf05qWIgFhBb60rE0w&oe=6921908E)
The multi-phase comparison from September through the two November survey waves shows a constituency experiencing meaningful shifts in voter alignment. Leonard Wa Muthende, who began at 33.3% in September, rose steadily to 40.1% in October, then peaked at 47.5% on November 8th… pic.twitter.com/XguZ3SmRt3
— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) November 19, 2025
We have a day to go.That is a big deal in Kenya's history. People of RV, Nyanza, Mulima, and Western are about to see transformation. I think 3 years from now the economic landscape in Kenya will change completely. If anyone needs a business idea, travel centres of Africa would bring massive returns, and yes, use that name for free. Every 50 Km build one from Rironi to Nakuru, Nakuru to Eldoret, Eldoret to Malaba, Nakuru to Kericho to Kisumu, Busia, etc. What make America Nywee, driving around from state to state and city to city are just travel centres, rest areas, and businesses built every mile or 2 on the interstate that are accessible immediately you exit. You drink coffee, tea, eat, sleep and proceed with the journey even if you are driving freaking thousands of miles or weeks at a time. If Africa were one and we had such massive roads connecting all 54 countries, Africa would dominate the world in a short 5-10 years. There is nothing west of China! African sunlight and such exotic terrain is unbeatable!
That is a big deal in Kenya's history. People of RV, Nyanza, Mulima, and Western are about to see transformation. I think 3 years from now the economic landscape in Kenya will change completely. If anyone needs a business idea, travel centres of Africa would bring massive returns, and yes, use that name for free. Every 50 Km build one from Rironi to Nakuru, Nakuru to Eldoret, Eldoret to Malaba, Nakuru to Kericho to Kisumu, Busia, etc. What make America Nywee, driving around from state to state and city to city are just travel centres, rest areas, and businesses built every mile or 2 on the interstate that are accessible immediately you exit. You drink coffee, tea, eat, sleep and proceed with the journey even if you are driving freaking thousands of miles or weeks at a time. If Africa were one and we had such massive roads connecting all 54 countries, Africa would dominate the world in a short 5-10 years. There is nothing west of China! African sunlight and such exotic terrain is unbeatable!
Brilliant tact to keep IEBC and everyone on their toes
The violence that will be inflicted on Kenyans in 2027 is unprecedented but one term is unstoppable, as a matter of fact, I know they are going to try to steal this mini elections but they are hardening the population and Kenyans are quick learners. There is no way Ruto wins Mbeere without rigging, People there have rejected the oxygen thief UDA candidate, if Ruto was smart, he would not have taken this personally, they had a bad candidate, live to fight another but the lying hubris guy would rather cause war then lose a seat.
Crying foul so when they lose they blame IEBC.