Nipate
Forum => Kenya Discussion => Topic started by: Githunguri on June 08, 2025, 01:26:17 AM
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Kiambu
Muranga
Nyeri
Kirinyaga
Tharaka Nithi
Meru
Embu
Laikipia
Nyandarua
Nakuru
Nairobi-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Kajiado-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Machakos
Taita Taveta
Kitui
Makueni
OVER 50% Counties.
Gusii
Mombasa/Kwale-GEMA Kamba Mijikenda
Lamu-GEMA Kamba
Nyamira
Isiolo
Toss ups.
If two North Eastern counties join them.
If Natembeya Malala Wamalwa mobilize 40%+ Luhya.
They WIN.
The biggest looser in this power play is ODM.They have lost the Kamba Kisii and luhya swing vote/top up across the country.Its that top up that made them win most seats in Nairobi and coastal areas.ODM becomes a luo affair.Raila is politically useless.
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Wind of righteousness is on Gachagua's back pastor Dorcas has poured anointing oil on Riggy G. The man is accepted countrywide. Hi Cousins! Never seen Kalonzo this energized. If he plays his cards right he might nick it.
Raila is done. The man is on limp mode. How will his politics of handshake work without him on the ballot?
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22 counties...not enough.Add two more.
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Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.
That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.
Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027. Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching
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22 counties...not enough.Add two more.
Pundit.
How many counties does Ruto/Raila coalition have?
Narok
Elgeyo Marakwet
Bomet
Nandi
Uasin Ngishu
West pokot
Turkana
Kericho
Siaya
Migori
Busia
Homabay
Kisumu
Vihiga.
Toss ups:
Bungoma
Trans zoia
Kakamega
Wajir
Marsabit
Mandera
Kwale
Lamu
If Riggy G endorses Kalonzo.Its over round one with over 60%.
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Wind of righteousness is on Gachagua's back pastor Dorcas has poured anointing oil on Riggy G. The man is accepted countrywide. Hi Cousins! Never seen Kalonzo this energized. If he plays his cards right he might nick it.
Raila is done. The man is on limp mode. How will his politics of handshake work without him on the ballot?
Riggy G is a legend.Fighting Ruto,Raila Uhuru combination is not a joke.They wanted to finish him because they knew his potential.
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The Luhya and Mijikenda communities are unlikely to support such a Bantu-oriented ticket, as their socio-cultural identities have been significantly shaped by Nilotic and Islamic influences, respectively. As a result, this kind of alliance is more likely to resonate within the Gusii, GEMA, and Kamba regions. However, even then, the ticket faces several strategic challenges. For broader appeal and viability,
Kalonzo would need to lead it—
Matiang’i, on the other hand, Kalonzo bolt out -
Then without Matiangi you lose half Gusii back to Ruto
So that ticket will be Mt kenya +Kamba - givem them 40%.
Ruto wins with 60%.
Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.
That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.
Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027. Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching
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RiggyG is impeached. Sijui how long it will take for you guys to get it. HE IS FINISHED.
Riggy G is a legend.Fighting Ruto,Raila Uhuru combination is not a joke.They wanted to finish him because they knew his potential.
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Ruto will likely 25% in almost all counties except maybe Kikuyu 4 - of Nyandarua, Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri.
22 counties...not enough.Add two more.
Pundit.
How many counties does Ruto/Raila coalition have?
Narok
Elgeyo Marakwet
Bomet
Nandi
Uasin Ngishu
West pokot
Turkana
Kericho
Siaya
Migori
Busia
Homabay
Kisumu
Vihiga.
Toss ups:
Bungoma
Trans zoia
Kakamega
Wajir
Marsabit
Mandera
Kwale
Lamu
If Riggy G endorses Kalonzo.Its over round one with over 60%.
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You still have that WSR will get votes in Mt Kenya? Delusions
Ruto will likely 25% in almost all counties except maybe Kikuyu 4 - of Nyandarua, Muranga, Kirinyanga and Nyeri.
22 counties...not enough.Add two more.
Pundit.
How many counties does Ruto/Raila coalition have?
Narok
Elgeyo Marakwet
Bomet
Nandi
Uasin Ngishu
West pokot
Turkana
Kericho
Siaya
Migori
Busia
Homabay
Kisumu
Vihiga.
Toss ups:
Bungoma
Trans zoia
Kakamega
Wajir
Marsabit
Mandera
Kwale
Lamu
If Riggy G endorses Kalonzo.Its over round one with over 60%.
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We are headed for a runoff. Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.
The Luhya and Mijikenda communities are unlikely to support such a Bantu-oriented ticket, as their socio-cultural identities have been significantly shaped by Nilotic and Islamic influences, respectively. As a result, this kind of alliance is more likely to resonate within the Gusii, GEMA, and Kamba regions. However, even then, the ticket faces several strategic challenges. For broader appeal and viability,
Kalonzo would need to lead it—
Matiang’i, on the other hand, Kalonzo bolt out -
Then without Matiangi you lose half Gusii back to Ruto
So that ticket will be Mt kenya +Kamba - givem them 40%.
Ruto wins with 60%.
Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.
That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.
Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027. Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching
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Which multiple candidates?
We are headed for a runoff. Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.
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60%??
1) The NARC wave of 2002 got Kibaki 61%. Can WSR replicate such hope with the burden of incumbency? Impossible
2) In fact, in all of the prez elections since 1992, only once (Kibaki 2002) has a candidate got over 52%. the 2017 repeat election does not feature cos of the boycott.
3) Elections with an incumbent prez have typically been the most difficult elections. From 1997, 2007, 2017. The transition elections are easier cos of fresh candidates from at least one side of the divide (2002, 2012, 2022).
The Luhya and Mijikenda communities are unlikely to support such a Bantu-oriented ticket, as their socio-cultural identities have been significantly shaped by Nilotic and Islamic influences, respectively. As a result, this kind of alliance is more likely to resonate within the Gusii, GEMA, and Kamba regions. However, even then, the ticket faces several strategic challenges. For broader appeal and viability,
Kalonzo would need to lead it—
Matiang’i, on the other hand, Kalonzo bolt out -
Then without Matiangi you lose half Gusii back to Ruto
So that ticket will be Mt kenya +Kamba - givem them 40%.
Ruto wins with 60%.
Anyone with over 30% of national vote will be definition get at least 25% in the four cushitic counties of Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Marsabit - as the clan politics in these counties means that they cannot vote as a united bloc.
That said, Riggy G seems to be countering the WSR/RAO coalition by branding it a nilotic affair - while uniting the Bantu coalition.
Seems like we just might see a South Sudan vs Congo ticket in 2027. Perfect antidote for the tribalist angle that WSR/RAO have been preaching
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A) The minimum number of major candidates is three (defining major as a ticket with more than 5%)
i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi/Melon/Gachagua/Wamalwa
iii) Omtatah/Maraga integrity coalition
B) These candidates can likely increase to more than three - if there are disagreements as to the top of the ticket on the opposition side
i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi & others
iii) Melon & others
iv) Integrity ticket
C) The tickets can even increase to four should RAO decide to fulfil his life dream of becoming prez - this being his last chance
i) WSR & others
ii) RAO & others
iii) Matiangi & others
iv) Melon & others
v) Integrity ticket
In the meantime, let's wait for SCORK to hear the 2026/2027 election date dispute - coming up in July.
Which multiple candidates?
We are headed for a runoff. Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.
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Uhuru got 54% in 2017 improving from 51%.
Again we have Raila to close the deal here.
Raila easily command 33% of the national vote;
Ruto easily command 33% of the national vote;
The remainder is in Mt kenya + Ukambani.
I dont see any other formidable formation.
Those are the 3 main formation.
Matiangi can chip 3% from Raila and 3% - if he becomes ticket holder.
Raila and Ruto each drop to 30%.
GEMA (+Ukambani) can improve to 40% at that point.
Combine Raila+RUto is 60%.
If we have Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto running - then we have run-off
Kenya elections are easy to predict - so why go for run-off when people can sit and negotiate.
Ruto has most of aces going into 2022 - he is incumbent - has money - has solid base - has 2032 +Dpork to dish.
Next is Raila but old age -
Mt kenya we dont know how they end - Rigathi has taken early lead but he is impeached - mt kenya believe somehow the court will rule in his favour
Kalonzo must run - 75yrs - as opposition pork or he bolt out -- and try to get DPORK in Ruto and aim for 2032.
60%??
1) The NARC wave of 2002 got Kibaki 61%. Can WSR replicate such hope with the burden of incumbency? Impossible
2) In fact, in all of the prez elections since 1992, only once (Kibaki 2002) has a candidate got over 52%. the 2017 repeat election does not feature cos of the boycott.
3) Elections with an incumbent prez have typically been the most difficult elections. From 1997, 2007, 2017. The transition elections are easier cos of fresh candidates from at least one side of the divide (2002, 2012, 2022).
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Anything starting with Matiangi is a joke.
Ruto+Raila - END of debate - why are you continueing :)
Matiangi can only fly in Gusii+Kikuyus.
Kalonzo and Kambas will not board that - and consider it a big insult.
So quit those silly tweet kind of scenarios - sijui Omtatah/Maraga - those will be competing with spoilt votes - PESA ikimwagwa they will be nowhere on the map
And engage in proper political punditry.
Not make-believe stuff - sijui Eugene or Natembeya or Omtatah or Magara - those are online jokes.
A) The minimum number of major candidates is three (defining major as a ticket with more than 5%)
i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi/Melon/Gachagua/Wamalwa
iii) Omtatah/Maraga integrity coalition
B) These candidates can likely increase to more than three - if there are disagreements as to the top of the ticket on the opposition side
i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi & others
iii) Melon & others
iv) Integrity ticket
C) The tickets can even increase to four should RAO decide to fulfil his life dream of becoming prez - this being his last chance
i) WSR & others
ii) RAO & others
iii) Matiangi & others
iv) Melon & others
v) Integrity ticket
In the meantime, let's wait for SCORK to hear the 2026/2027 election date dispute - coming up in July.
Which multiple candidates?
We are headed for a runoff. Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.
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Why would Miji kenda be in an alliance with other bantus? What's the justification?? Again this strategy by RiggyG is set to cause animosity and tribalism on a large scale,
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Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
Uhuru got 54% in 2017 improving from 51%.
Again we have Raila to close the deal here.
Raila easily command 33% of the national vote;
Ruto easily command 33% of the national vote;
The remainder is in Mt kenya + Ukambani.
I dont see any other formidable formation.
Those are the 3 main formation.
Matiangi can chip 3% from Raila and 3% - if he becomes ticket holder.
Raila and Ruto each drop to 30%.
GEMA (+Ukambani) can improve to 40% at that point.
Combine Raila+RUto is 60%.
If we have Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto running - then we have run-off
Kenya elections are easy to predict - so why go for run-off when people can sit and negotiate.
Ruto has most of aces going into 2022 - he is incumbent - has money - has solid base - has 2032 +Dpork to dish.
Next is Raila but old age -
Mt kenya we dont know how they end - Rigathi has taken early lead but he is impeached - mt kenya believe somehow the court will rule in his favour
Kalonzo must run - 75yrs - as opposition pork or he bolt out -- and try to get DPORK in Ruto and aim for 2032.
60%??
1) The NARC wave of 2002 got Kibaki 61%. Can WSR replicate such hope with the burden of incumbency? Impossible
2) In fact, in all of the prez elections since 1992, only once (Kibaki 2002) has a candidate got over 52%. the 2017 repeat election does not feature cos of the boycott.
3) Elections with an incumbent prez have typically been the most difficult elections. From 1997, 2007, 2017. The transition elections are easier cos of fresh candidates from at least one side of the divide (2002, 2012, 2022).
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Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.
As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket.
Anything starting with Matiangi is a joke.
Ruto+Raila - END of debate - why are you continueing :)
Matiangi can only fly in Gusii+Kikuyus.
Kalonzo and Kambas will not board that - and consider it a big insult.
So quit those silly tweet kind of scenarios - sijui Omtatah/Maraga - those will be competing with spoilt votes - PESA ikimwagwa they will be nowhere on the map
And engage in proper political punditry.
Not make-believe stuff - sijui Eugene or Natembeya or Omtatah or Magara - those are online jokes.
A) The minimum number of major candidates is three (defining major as a ticket with more than 5%)
i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi/Melon/Gachagua/Wamalwa
iii) Omtatah/Maraga integrity coalition
B) These candidates can likely increase to more than three - if there are disagreements as to the top of the ticket on the opposition side
i) WSR/RAO
ii) Matiangi & others
iii) Melon & others
iv) Integrity ticket
C) The tickets can even increase to four should RAO decide to fulfil his life dream of becoming prez - this being his last chance
i) WSR & others
ii) RAO & others
iii) Matiangi & others
iv) Melon & others
v) Integrity ticket
In the meantime, let's wait for SCORK to hear the 2026/2027 election date dispute - coming up in July.
Which multiple candidates?
We are headed for a runoff. Unlikely anyone will get 50% + 1 in the first round with multiple candidates.
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Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
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Kagame messed it up.
He fcked SADC at wrong time....completely embarrassed South Africa, TZ, Burundi and Malawi
DRC blamed us.
And SADC smarting from defeat did Ruto in.
Its nature of politics.
If you saw voting - you'd have seen Raila lead - then once SADC candidate withdrew - last minute candidate - they went for Djiboutti.
Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.
As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket.
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He is political neophytes.
He only know Kalonzo has Kambas.
He doesnt know all the 47 tribes have owners and mini owners.
You need to sell your vision to them first.
Of course he was nasty to everyone - and he has no friends - not even in Murima.
Now he is going round with Bantu cousin thing - a Mijikenda cant relate - neither can Luhya.
This very hopeless opposition; They badly Uhuru; who can hopefully resusciate national network;
Rigathi and Kalonzo outside Ukambani and GEMA - have some footing in Kajiado - kwingine ZERO ZERO - maybe Malala and Natembeya & Wamalwa - no Mps.
Siasa ya Kenya is complicated - there are layers.
Even in Mt kenya - Rigathi has to do a radical overthrow - he has no buy in in the leadership - so he has do revolution.
Why would Miji kenda be in an alliance with other bantus? What's the justification?? Again this strategy by RiggyG is set to cause animosity and tribalism on a large scale,
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But you couldn't see this SADC angle even one day to election?
All I am saying is, stop the ad hominem. Just present your views. No one has the monopoly of punditry and silliness.
Kagame messed it up.
He fcked SADC at wrong time....completely embarrassed South Africa, TZ, Burundi and Malawi
DRC blamed us.
And SADC smarting from defeat did Ruto in.
Its nature of politics.
If you saw voting - you'd have seen Raila lead - then once SADC candidate withdrew - last minute candidate - they went for Djiboutti.
Ruto + Raila just failed in AU the other day - after you repeatedly telling us how the genius WSR has this sewn up.
As for Matiangi vs Melon, if they dont agree, then again we head into runoff against the WSR/RAO ticket.
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I saw SADC and GOMA - and that is what killed Raila;
I dont see Matiangi.
And that is where we disagree.
Matiangi has a Kalonzo problem. It very simple. Nothing personal.
Been here on this forum for 25yrs - my record speak for itself
But you couldn't see this SADC angle even one day to election?
All I am saying is, stop the ad hominem. Just present your views. No one has the monopoly of punditry and silliness.
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Poor Raila is cooked either way cause Coast and NFD will also remain with Ruto should he re-join opposition.
Let us see if RiggyG can be the next rock-star politician: after Moi, Raila, Ruto.
Kiambu
Muranga
Nyeri
Kirinyaga
Tharaka Nithi
Meru
Embu
Laikipia
Nyandarua
Nakuru
Nairobi-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Kajiado-Kamba Kikuyu Gusii over 50%
Machakos
Taita Taveta
Kitui
Makueni
OVER 50% Counties.
Gusii
Mombasa/Kwale-GEMA Kamba Mijikenda
Lamu-GEMA Kamba
Nyamira
Isiolo
Toss ups.
If two North Eastern counties join them.
If Natembeya Malala Wamalwa mobilize 40%+ Luhya.
They WIN.
The biggest looser in this power play is ODM.They have lost the Kamba Kisii and luhya swing vote/top up across the country.Its that top up that made them win most seats in Nairobi and coastal areas.ODM becomes a luo affair.Raila is politically useless.
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22 counties...not enough.Add two more.
I see 21 listed.
He is counting on 2 more North Eastern and Trans Nzoia (cause Natembeya).
It seems Malala will not deliver Kakamega.
Makes it 24.
Fanciful stuff, main whistle iko mbali.
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Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
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Agreed.
Until we figure out Raila game - we have elections.
I cant quite figure out what ODM byzantine gameplan is.
What I know Kalonzo wont deputize anyone in opposition - age is not on his side.
Raila has same age problem
Uhuru is playing his card close - the 3 expert in gov - are his
Hii ingine ya Gen Zs and Matiangi and Gachagua is non-starter
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
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Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
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Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.
You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North. :D
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
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This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics.
If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?
A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa)
The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics. A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases.
Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube. Good luck!
Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.
You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North. :D
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
-
There is no way WSR and limping Raila control 70% that would be complete domination, no opposition, none. Raila number is 9% Luo and maybe 5% nationwide. Ruto I would say 11% kale and 8% nationwide. Combined they around 30- 35% nationwide.
Riggy G can close that gap very easily and very fast. However, I think Kalonzo would be more ideal candidate. Cousins from the lake will have a chance to 'return hand' to our Kamba cousins.
This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics.
If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?
A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa)
The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics. A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases.
Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube. Good luck!
Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.
You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North. :D
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
-
Protests and rallies happen globally - right now there is mad clashes and teargas closeby in LA as people protest ICE raids. Trump has called in the National Guard (KDF 👀) as police cars get torched.
What is easy - rallying and sloganeering.
What is HARD - converting excitement into votes.
Don't read too much into rallies.
There were 2 PORK candidates in 2022: Raila and Ruto approx 100% roughly split 50-50.
From KK Riggy has bolted with GEMA 22%.
From Azimio Kalonzo has bolted with Kamba 9%.
From both Matiang'i has bolted with Gusii 6%.
100 - 22 - 9 - 6 = 63% remains with Ruto-Raila.
Obviously not ALL GEMA or Kamba or Gusii will bolt - some are still with Ruto and Raila.
Mbeere by-election will tell us what is the real situation on the ground in Embu.
Question for Tactician and patel
You say Gen Z is a tangible voting block. Youths (people with 18-35 years for our purposes) are 30% by Census 2019. You can google it.
Assume they are fairly evenly spread in all of Kenya so that 30% of Mbeere North is Gen Z.
In that case, the expected result would be as follows:
◼No 1. Maraga-Omtata candidate 30% - hands-down winner :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
◼No 2, 3, 4 DCP, DP, UDA, Jubilee, bla bla
What do you say to this?
This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics.
If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?
A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa)
The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics. A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases.
Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube. Good luck!
Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.
You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North. :D
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
-
Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.
How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??
Protests and rallies happen globally - right now there is mad clashes and teargas closeby in LA as people protest ICE raids. Trump has called in the National Guard (KDF 👀) as police cars get torched.
What is easy - rallying and sloganeering.
What is HARD - converting excitement into votes.
Don't read too much into rallies.
There were 2 PORK candidates in 2022: Raila and Ruto approx 100% roughly split 50-50.
From KK Riggy has bolted with GEMA 22%.
From Azimio Kalonzo has bolted with Kamba 9%.
From both Matiang'i has bolted with Gusii 6%.
100 - 22 - 9 - 6 = 63% remains with Ruto-Raila.
Obviously not ALL GEMA or Kamba or Gusii will bolt - some are still with Ruto and Raila.
Mbeere by-election will tell us what is the real situation on the ground in Embu.
Question for Tactician and patel
You say Gen Z is a tangible voting block. Youths (people with 18-35 years for our purposes) are 30% by Census 2019. You can google it.
Assume they are fairly evenly spread in all of Kenya so that 30% of Mbeere North is Gen Z.
In that case, the expected result would be as follows:
◼No 1. Maraga-Omtata candidate 30% - hands-down winner :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
◼No 2, 3, 4 DCP, DP, UDA, Jubilee, bla bla
What do you say to this?
This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics.
If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?
A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa)
The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics. A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases.
Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube. Good luck!
Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.
You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North. :D
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
-
Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.
Gen Zs ni kelele tu.
We dont worry about Kelele
Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.
How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??
-
Gachagua is a non-starter..he will be effective in locking ruto out of central but he won't be useful elsewhere
-
There is a huge underbelly of voters who simply don't feel represented by the politicians in office - which explains why the June 24 protests were not led by any of the political class.
The unsaid reality is that there is a generational shift in the current political leadership - all the top dog politicians have been running for campaigning for 20years+
- RAO has been running for prez for 28years, since 1997
- Kalonzo has been running for prez for 17years, since 2007 and has been a nondescript minister since 1992, 33 years ago
- MDVD has been running for prez for 23 years, since 2002, and like Melon been a colourless minister since 1989, 36 years ago
- WSR has been running for prez for 12 years, since 2013, and his narrative for being the brains under the drunkard UK has been busted wide open in the last two years
- Gachagua is the new kid in the block, but the fella is brainless, tactless and a goon.
Why hasn't the political class moved? They simply do not have options, just like the hapless Kenyans. Everyone is simply sitting tight, awaiting to see what unfolds.
Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.
Gen Zs ni kelele tu.
We dont worry about Kelele
Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.
How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??
-
My question: whether a Gen Z candidate (say in Omtata party NRA) would win in Mbeere? That is the effect of what you are saying.
Mbeere by-election is soon so we have a good way to settle the matter. Much better than rally crowds, protests and OPs. RiggyG et al mettle will be tested.
Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.
How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??
Protests and rallies happen globally - right now there is mad clashes and teargas closeby in LA as people protest ICE raids. Trump has called in the National Guard (KDF 👀) as police cars get torched.
What is easy - rallying and sloganeering.
What is HARD - converting excitement into votes.
Don't read too much into rallies.
There were 2 PORK candidates in 2022: Raila and Ruto approx 100% roughly split 50-50.
From KK Riggy has bolted with GEMA 22%.
From Azimio Kalonzo has bolted with Kamba 9%.
From both Matiang'i has bolted with Gusii 6%.
100 - 22 - 9 - 6 = 63% remains with Ruto-Raila.
Obviously not ALL GEMA or Kamba or Gusii will bolt - some are still with Ruto and Raila.
Mbeere by-election will tell us what is the real situation on the ground in Embu.
Question for Tactician and patel
You say Gen Z is a tangible voting block. Youths (people with 18-35 years for our purposes) are 30% by Census 2019. You can google it.
Assume they are fairly evenly spread in all of Kenya so that 30% of Mbeere North is Gen Z.
In that case, the expected result would be as follows:
◼No 1. Maraga-Omtata candidate 30% - hands-down winner :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
◼No 2, 3, 4 DCP, DP, UDA, Jubilee, bla bla
What do you say to this?
This tribal math conveniently ignores June 2024 mathematics.
If RAO and WSR controlled 60%+ of the voting power, how do we explain the June 24 nationwide protests?
A pollster had support for the broad-based govt at 22% and 54% opposed in May 2025 https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa (https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2025-05-28-majority-of-kenyans-opposed-to-broad-based-government-tifa)
The hustler narrative, which WSR peddled and won with in 2022, opened the door to economics being one of the primary drivers of politics. A reality that WSR and the political class are trying to reverse, so as to retain their political bases.
Hence all these math on tribal voting blocks - trying to re-insert toothpaste back into the tube. Good luck!
Simple rough math.
By 2019 census GEMA is 22%, Kamba 9%, Gusii 6%.
Raila and Ruto share the rest of the pie.
You can argue about turnout or the fantastic "Gen Z" for Maraga and Omtatah. I am waiting to see this phantom in Mbeere North. :D
Where do you get this numbers from ? Mind to break them down by county or tribe. I don't see Raila in mid thirties at best high teens same with Ruto.
Tick & tick. Raila 35%, Ruto 35%, RiggyG 22% if he nails Mt Kenya. Kalonzo 8%. Matiang'i 4%.
We are literally just waiting to see if 80yo Raila is running for 6th time. Then we can have MOAS.
FOR NOW -- Ruto-Raila team - no need for elections.
Your brain froze in 2007?
Kibaki was incumbent - got any gov in tribes.
Raila was just consolidating his 35% core - that he stole from Moi - Majimbo/Devolution/KADU.
Ruto was like RiggyG - trying to consolidate kalenjin - and 15yrs - he has major national support.
Each of these two have easily 35% - national support.
It game over if they unite.
Their 2007 45% - 48% add hiyo 12% - and make it 60% - ideally 65%.
Ati WSR + RAO = 60%? Ha!
If that was the case, then the 2007 coalition which had RAO + MDVD + WSR would have easily won the election. Even adding Melon 9% to Rao's 43% percentage in 2007 would not get to 55%.
For context, once again, to get to anything above 55% in Kenya requires a major political wave enthused with hope, which by definition, is anti-incumbent.
As for Uhuru's 54% in 2017, that was declared null & void. Useless for analysis.
-
This may all be true and reasonable.
I am asking if a Gen Z candidate can win actual elections? We have Mbeere around the corner to test the theory.
If Gen Z are with Matiang'i - Jubilee should come out on top easy.
There is a huge underbelly of voters who simply don't feel represented by the politicians in office - which explains why the June 24 protests were not led by any of the political class.
The unsaid reality is that there is a generational shift in the current political leadership - all the top dog politicians have been running for campaigning for 20years+
- RAO has been running for prez for 28years, since 1997
- Kalonzo has been running for prez for 17years, since 2007 and has been a nondescript minister since 1992, 33 years ago
- MDVD has been running for prez for 23 years, since 2002, and like Melon been a colourless minister since 1989, 36 years ago
- WSR has been running for prez for 12 years, since 2013, and his narrative for being the brains under the drunkard UK has been busted wide open in the last two years
- Gachagua is the new kid in the block, but the fella is brainless, tactless and a goon.
Why hasn't the political class moved? They simply do not have options, just like the hapless Kenyans. Everyone is simply sitting tight, awaiting to see what unfolds.
Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.
Gen Zs ni kelele tu.
We dont worry about Kelele
Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.
How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??
-
Obvious Genz cannot win by themselves but they can swing elections. My query was beside Luo 9% which other kabila is willing to follow Raila blindly? Same with Kenya kwanza which other community is willing to be shafted after Gema.
This may all be true and reasonable.
I am asking if a Gen Z candidate can win actual elections? We have Mbeere around the corner to test the theory.
If Gen Z are with Matiang'i - Jubilee should come out on top easy.
There is a huge underbelly of voters who simply don't feel represented by the politicians in office - which explains why the June 24 protests were not led by any of the political class.
The unsaid reality is that there is a generational shift in the current political leadership - all the top dog politicians have been running for campaigning for 20years+
- RAO has been running for prez for 28years, since 1997
- Kalonzo has been running for prez for 17years, since 2007 and has been a nondescript minister since 1992, 33 years ago
- MDVD has been running for prez for 23 years, since 2002, and like Melon been a colourless minister since 1989, 36 years ago
- WSR has been running for prez for 12 years, since 2013, and his narrative for being the brains under the drunkard UK has been busted wide open in the last two years
- Gachagua is the new kid in the block, but the fella is brainless, tactless and a goon.
Why hasn't the political class moved? They simply do not have options, just like the hapless Kenyans. Everyone is simply sitting tight, awaiting to see what unfolds.
Dont relie on kenya fatally flawed opinion polls.
Personally there are layers.
You watch key politicians - including mps/senators - they watch the ground.
If they move - you have to analyze - if movement is from public or their stomach.
I am not seeing much movement.
Not even in Mt kenya.
In short there is stalemate - Ruto is only known known - the rest are unkown - RiggyG is impeached - Kalonzo has issues - Matiangi is neophytes - Raila is too old.
For now - most politicians and such - are saying its too early.
Ruto still the guy.
Gen Zs ni kelele tu.
We dont worry about Kelele
Agreed - WSR & RAO got 99%+ of the vote in 2022.
How come when they combine in gov't, they only get 22% in support of the broad-based govt with 54% in opposition??
-
Yes four or so by elections will gives us hint. The online echo chamber is not real. We have seen this before. Peter Kenneth is a victim. He was defeated by Spoilt votes.
-
David Ndii called the online group an echo chamber and dared them to hit the streets. The rest is history.
The days of Peter Kenneth (2012) were when internet connectivity was among the few. Now online has become the largest medium of conversation - ahead of all others whether radio or tv.
And why the UDA/ODM gov't is keen on regulating it
Yes four or so by elections will gives us hint. The online echo chamber is not real. We have seen this before. Peter Kenneth is a victim. He was defeated by Spoilt votes.